We’re getting some positive trends in recent rounds of polling. For instance:
Georgia Governor GE:
Abrams (D) 45%
Kemp (R) 45%University of Georgia/@AJC/@wsbtv 8/26-9/4https://t.co/RoXQylplMm #GAgov
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 7, 2018
OK. So maybe the Senate is "in play." That's the first time I have said or written that. Gotta go with the numbers.
— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) September 6, 2018
Andrew Gillum up 50-47 for Governor, says Quinnipiac. First live-caller poll of Florida since the primary. https://t.co/wcqlvh5XdJ pic.twitter.com/rBIgMsIUHd
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 4, 2018
Yes, he has a shot. Equally important, Bill Nelson has a much better chance of holding on to his seat, as African American turnout has a good chance of rebounding to 2008/2012 levels.
— daniel a. smith (@electionsmith) August 29, 2018
Tia Mitchell is a reporter for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Daniel Smith is a former colleague of mine in the Department of Political Science at the University of Florida who specializes in, among other things, state and local politics.
Yes, that's very clearly part of the issue….
— daniel a. smith (@electionsmith) August 29, 2018
I think that part of the reason for this is that the public polling under samples people of color, as well as women regardless of ethnicity and younger people. As a result a good chunk of what appears to be happening isn’t being captured in the public polling as both Tia Mitchell and Dan Smith state. And this is why we’re seeing Republican candidates, including Republican candidates for the Senate, such as Senator Cruz, behaving as if their internal polling is much worse than the public polling. It is important to remember that the campaigns’ internal polling is always better than the public polling. They have better models of their supporters, of the likely electorate on election day and in early voting, and in regard to potential turnout.
None of this should lead anyone into complacency. Nothing is written in stone just a little over two months from the mid-term elections in November. And nothing should be taken for granted. Everyone still needs to make sure they’re registered to vote, that everyone they know is registered to vote, and that everyone those people know are registered to vote. And then everyone needs to vote, to make sure that everyone they know votes, and that everyone those people know vote. And, if possible, to vote during early voting to ensure you and everyone else doesn’t get jammed up on election day.
There are signs of hope. And while hope is not a strategy, hope is necessary to beat back despair. And, to be honest, the only thing the President and those seeking office on platforms of supporting him more than anyone else could possibly support them, are peddling one thing and one thing only: despair. Don’t buy it. Don’t even take it for a test drive.
Open thread!