Over at Bloomberg, Al Hunt is convinced (somehow) that the antics of Republicans in Congress will somehow hurt the 2016 Clown Bus.
Contrary to expectations that he would be a lame-duck, President Barack Obama has dominated Washington politics in the first half of the year, and the congressional Republican majority has often appeared reactive or reactionary.
There is considerable fear among leading Republicans about the funding fights. Conservatives, the rank and file in the House, along with presidential contenders in the Senate, are threatening a government shutdown unless Planned Parenthood is defunded; the concessions that will be demanded for raising the debt ceiling will be greater. Obama, feeling empowered by having no more elections to win, has no intention of bowing to these conservative challenges.
Washington was incensed by Cruz’s language and Meadows’s action. But Meadows’ office says the outpouring of reaction to his anti-Boehner call was 99 percent favorable. And grassroots Iowa conservatives praised Cruz for taking on a congressional leader.
Top Republicans fear the rise of Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy; his attacks on immigrants and trade only exacerbate the party’s internal difficulties.
At private sessions in the Capitol, establishment Republicans, including some congressional leaders, realize they can’t drive Trumpfrom the race and he may not crater soon. They are considering putting pressure on some of the second-tier candidates to bow out because the real estate mogul might be more vulnerable in a smaller field. That’s likely a quixotic mission and hope.
The poor performance of a congressional party has sometimes helped an eventual nominee: Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Barack Obama in 2008. Congressional antics in 2011-12 probably marginally hurt Mitt Romney in the last presidential election.
If Boehner and McConnell are able to avoid a disaster — a shutdown or debt default — and pass a highway bill, along with the Pacific trade deal and a few measures next year, any adverse consequences for the party’s standard-bearer could be neutralized. If not, the once bright prospects of a Republican Congress will be an albatross for the party.
I’m going to go ahead and say that while it’s possible that Republicans running for the White House in 2016 might be hurt by a default or government shutdown, it sure as hell hasn’t harmed Republicans in Congress or at the state level in the last five, six years. They’ve won the Senate, have the biggest House margin in generations, and taken over the majority of state legislatures and governor’s mansions. Hell, Obama is the only thing standing in-between the Republicans and total control of the country, and we’re not as a body politic exactly super motivated to keep a Democrat in the White House at this point (or if we are, we sure as hell aren’t showing any urgency.)
If we haven’t been paying attention to the GOP shutting things down, wrecking America’s credit rating, and generally setting fire to the country before, what makes Al Hunt think we’re going to do it now?
That would require America giving a damn, and we’re all out of stock.