Let’s blow past our initial fundraising goal soon.
Archives for October 2016
The value of a ground game
4Chan, Reddit and large rallies are good at building group solidarity and raising money as well as a mob. So far they are not a substitute for a boring, grind it out ground game.
North Carolina has some interesting data on early voting:
Registered Democrats continue to lead in the accepted ballots numbers, and are over-performing their 2012 same-day comparison numbers, at 129 percent of where they were in accepted ballots on the same day from four years ago. Registered unaffiliated voters are 128 percent of their same-day accepted ballots, and registered Republicans are 66 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day. Overall, the total returned and accepted mail-in ballots are at 96 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012.
Registered Democrats are running about 30% higher than they did in 2012. Registered Republicans are running about 30% lower. If we were seeing equivalent ground games, the Republicans are missing one vote for every vote that has been returned.
Time to keep on grinding away as a superior GOTV organization is worth a point or two in. And if you are in a non-swingable state, work down ballot as this data suggests that the downballot Republicans in North Carolina are not hitting their early voting marks either.
Update 1: A very good friend of the blog argued via e-mail that the independent/non-affiliated surge is very likely to be embarrassed Republicans and thus there is not a Democratic advantage. I can see that to some degree. However if we assume that every vote above last cycle’s non-affiliated vote is effectively an embarrassed Republican vote the combined Republican vote would be about 3% more than the current Democratic registered vote or in horse race turns the Republican adjust lead is 51% to 48% for the adjusted two party vote. In 2012 backing out the incremental embarrassed Republican vote, the Republicans had 58% to 42% two party vote edge.
APTC Hacks: A comment for meaningful difference improvement
Last night I submitted a fairly long comment (below the fold) to the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). My comment is on the initial parameters for the 2018 Exchange year. I and several colleagues think that CMS needs to pay more attention to meaningful difference regulation because the current set of rules allows for too much gaming of the system and minimization of the membership pool via the Silver Spamming strategy. The comment identifies the problem and proposes a viable solution.
I do not know what my expectations are for this comment. I know it will be read. I know some low level analyst will bucket the letter into two or three categories and there may be a response. Beyond that, I do not know if CMS will alter their policy at all on this issue. I hope they do as I think getting to a tighter definition of meaningful difference will boost enrollment while stabilizing the risk pool which is an objective that CMS shares. But I don’t know.
Now I’m going to get on Tim F’s beat — if you see something that the Federal government is doing that either intrigues you, pisses you off or touches on an area of specialized knowledge that you have, comment on the rule making. This letter took me three or four hours to write and revise with the other signers. It will be read, and it will be remembered by CMS technical staff as it engages them and it is not a mindless screaming of rage (from what I’ve heard, the EPA gets the best rage-grams.) Thoughtful, relevant responses that point to possible ways of accomplishing the mission of the agency in question will be read and they will be remembered. So please, do so especially as the comment submission process through Regulations.Gov is much easier than I thought it would have been.
The comment is below the fold:
APTC Hacks: A comment for meaningful difference improvementPost + Comments (4)
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Veep to Veep
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All apologies to Tim Kaine, who deserves better, but I’m having difficulty cranking my enthusiasm up for tonight’s Vice-Presidential Candidates Debate. Partially because watching Mike Dense is bad for my blood pressure, because he’s such a mealy-mouthed sack of Christianist shit…
…”Mike Pence needs to go in there and try to change the trajectory of the race, but he can’t do that because the biggest problem with their campaign right now is the presidential candidate,” said Mo Elleithee, a former Kaine adviser who now directs Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.
Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon insisted that Pence will not be able to wash away the worries voters have about Trump’s temperament and qualifications: “No matter what type of performance Mike Pence turns in, it’s not going to resolve the underlying concerns.”…
The debate’s setting in Farmville — which was chosen long before Clinton and Trump picked their running mates — gives the former Virginia governor a home-field advantage. Farmville was the epicenter of Virginia’s civil rights struggle, a point of resonance for Kaine, a former civil rights lawyer and the son-in-law of former governor Linwood Holton, who helped integrate Richmond’s schools in the 1970s. The state’s emergence from its segregationist past as a diverse economic powerhouse may give Kaine a dramatic backdrop against which to criticize Trump’s nationalist agenda and remarks…
Ahead of Tuesday’s forum, there is pressure on Kaine and Pence to shore up their tickets by sending reassurances to key constituencies that remain skittish. Kaine could look to validate Clinton’s progressive credentials and make a hard sale to young voters, while Pence could use his evangelical roots to make overtures on Trump’s behalf to social conservatives.
Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, said Pence’s asset will be convincing churchgoing Republicans of Trump’s allegiance. “If he gets a slow, underhand pitch on a moral or cultural issue, you know he’ll be able to do really well with it,” Reed said. “There is no better ambassador for Trump among social conservatives.”…
Pence, with his neatly cut white hair, tight smile and soft-spoken manner — “Rush Limbaugh on decaf” is an old nickname — will offer viewers a striking contrast with Trump.
“There is a saying in radio that the Midwestern accent is the best one,” said Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.), a moderate who served with Pence in the House. “It gives people a peace of mind. That’s what Mike’s going to bring.”
Nevertheless, Goddess willing and the router don’t fail, I expect to be here at nine EDT, carping along with the rest of you reprobates and sinners…
Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the day?
It’s not even 6 am and we already have video today of Alex Jones accusing Julian Assange of trolling him. I love 2016.
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 4, 2016
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Veep to VeepPost + Comments (159)
Open Thread: Trump & the Trials of A Semi-Legit Businessman
Is Donald Trump Tony Soprano with nice clothes? I asked @poniewozik in today's episode of The Run-Up: https://t.co/PPGmPvXTXV
— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) September 30, 2016
No, for three reasons.
1. People respected Tony Soprano.
2. Tony Soprano ran a successful business.
3. Tony Soprano was only married once. https://t.co/nTIDmbik2B— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) September 30, 2016
Also, contrary to @mikiebarb's tweet, Trump does not wear nice clothes. https://t.co/Dtb96drF2j
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) September 30, 2016
Some people still find it hard to believe that, in the year 2016, a broad caricature like Donald Trump is actually the Republican presidential nominee. (Plenty of people have joked that, within six months of his defeat, Trump will deny that he ever ran for President.) He seems like the lead character from a crime novel, or even a true-crime narrative. And just as thousands of hours of well-known crime stories going back to MacBeth tell us, the most dangerous point in a successful crime boss’s career is when he decides to take his business out of the grey zone, to make himself fully legitimate.
It’s not true that Donald Trump is lazy. Tremendously undisciplined, yes; careless of the consequences his actions may have on other people; spiteful and incapable of letting any slight or grudge go. But if he weren’t ambitious, he could’ve taken the millions he inherited from his old man and lived a long happy life violating only social norms and the minor criminal codes, the way his sons have been doing. Donald had larger goals; he wanted to rise above the ranks of his fellow bridge’n’tunnel landlord/goniffs, to make himself a Name, a celebrity, someone who could read about himself in the papers and watch himself on television. He’s had a good run, by those standards, but mistaking the social biases in his favor for “leadership” gifts was a very bad mistake.
There’s two major problems that any aspiring crime boss faces. First, it’s hard to get good help. The best people in any field usually calculate that they can make a profitable career without risking jail (or even social opprobrium); the best dishonest people are, of course, untrustworthy. Trump’s always been a micro-manager, not least because he knows he can’t trust the sort of people who would agree to work for Donald Trump… either they’re too naive to understand what they’ve gotten into, too inept to avoid the Trump trap, or too unethical not to emulate Trump’s tactics. When he decided to “go legit”, to run for the presidency (since no lesser office seemed worthy of his gifts), he found himself surrounded by hustlers (Lewandowski), potentially dangerous professional grifters (Manafort), has-beens (Giuliani, Gingrich, Conway), half-bright opportunists (Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Steve Miller), charlatans (Roger Stone), and bottom-feeders (Steve Bannon).
Open Thread: Trump & the Trials of A Semi-Legit BusinessmanPost + Comments (99)
Late Night Deserving Target Open Thread: The Sorrows of Young Ryan
Paul Ryan's life is pain, which is precisely what he deserves. https://t.co/RhQlmkOyfM
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 4, 2016
Back in the halcyon days of last week, Politico worried about “Paul Ryan’s treacherous political future”:
…[T]he speaker’s allies have become keenly aware of his precarious political future, the daunting challenge of governing under a President Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, and the rough task of rebuilding a GOP that many Hill Republicans believe has been overrun by anti-free trade populists who favor bombastic bomb-throwing over thoughtful policy discussions. All while weighing the possibility of his own bid for president, which Ryan did not rule out in a speech on Wednesday.
Whether he goes that route or not, Ryan is likely in for a tumultous next few years. If Trump wins and Ryan retains the speakership, the Wisconsin Republican will be forced to continue to wedge his positions into Trump’s alternate Republican universe.
If Clinton wins, Ryan will have to preside over a slimmed Republican majority, more heavily populated with burn-the-house-down conservatives. He’ll have to cut deals and do business with Hillary Clinton — a woman he’s met with privately just twice — while at the same time keeping conservatives content.
It’s a governing scenario that people close to him are beginning to envision, according to multiple sources in his political orbit — and not a particularly pleasant one…
Today, from Buzzfeed‘s underrated snarkster McKay Coppins:
"He wishes someone else could take the cup from him…I’d say ‘weary martyr’ is a good way to describe [Paul Ryan].” https://t.co/PuMohIOll3
— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) October 4, 2016
… In the four months since he formally endorsed his party’s nominee for president, Ryan — the esteemed Speaker of the House, the sterling guardian of conservatism, the intellectual leader of the Republican Party — has been reduced to a miserable Trump flunky sheepishly counting down the hours until the election is over. Each day he spends tethered to the Donald seems to bring some fresh humiliation; each role he inhabits in the entourage proves more undignified than the last. Adviser, apologist, hype man, scold — none brings redemption, or even reprieve. And so he trudges on toward November, a stench of sadness clinging to him as he goes.
Friends and allies, disappointed though many of them are, have tried to show Ryan support in this difficult time. They labor to give him the benefit of the doubt, to rationalize his endorsement — and when they’re defending his honor on the record, they might even find themselves slipping into Messianic metaphors…
“I think he endorsed Trump because he tries to see the best in people, and he hoped that his endorsement would be a down payment on a new and improved Trump,” said Katie Packer, a friend of Ryan’s who served as Mitt Romney’s deputy campaign manager in 2012.
“Unfortunately,” she added, Ryan’s policy agenda “has been hijacked by Donald Trump,” and “I think there will be some who find it hard to forgive his support” of the nominee.
Sources close to the Speaker said he endorsed Trump in June in hopes of gaining access to the candidate’s inner-circle and steering him away from his more destructive behavior. Ryan also believed he could convince Trump to infuse his platform with more orthodox conservative policy…
Translation from the weaselspeak: Ryan hoped he could bamboozle Trump’s handlers, and introduce them to the hallowed GOP tradition of “dogwhistling” racism/sexism/xenophobia. Bad guess, Paulie!
…Whatever the reason, Ryan has seemed to grow more visibly dyspeptic about his lot in life since returning to Washington. At a press conference last month, he became uncharacteristically testy with reporters when they asked him about Trump’s proclamation that Vladimir Putin was a stronger leader than President Obama.
“Do you think I’m going to stand up here and be an election pundit?” Ryan responded sharply. “I’ve got other things to do in this job. Yeah, he’s the nominee of our party, because he won our nomination fair and square. I’m not going to sit up here and do the tit for tat on what Donald said last night, or the night before, and Hillary versus Donald. That is not my job, and I’m not going to be the election year pundit commenting on all these little things. I’ll leave it at that.”…
You call yourself a Catholic, Mr. Ryan; you should’ve remembered the warning about avoiding the near occasion of sin. Trump’s philosophy is not much different than yours — he’s just more honest about his own selfishness and greed.
Go cry on your hero Ayn Rand’s grave, ya little blue-eyed weasel.
Paul Ryan on Trump tax bombshell: 'I don't think it's harmful' https://t.co/SVXpr36d9J pic.twitter.com/8LYO0rVYrG
— The Hill (@thehill) October 4, 2016
anyone who thinks this story was designed to redeem paul ryan should unfollow me and never speak my name again https://t.co/q6o7TBX0Xl
— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) October 4, 2016
Late Night Deserving Target Open Thread: The Sorrows of Young RyanPost + Comments (75)
Easy Marks
The economically insecure rubes who are voting for Trump will never figure this out:
Plenty of blue-collar workers believe that, as president, Donald Trump would be ready to fight off U.S. trade adversaries and reinvigorate the country’s manufacturing industries through his commitment to the Rust Belt. What they likely don’t know is that Trump has been stiffing American steel workers on his own construction projects for years, choosing to deprive untold millions of dollars from four key electoral swing states and instead directing it to China—the country whose trade practices have helped decimate the once-powerful industrial center of the United States.
A Newsweek investigation has found that in at least two of Trump’s last three construction projects, Trump opted to purchase his steel and aluminum from Chinese manufacturers rather than United States corporations based in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. In other instances, he abandoned steel altogether, instead choosing the far-less-expensive option of buying concrete from various companies, including some linked to the Luchese and Genovese crime families. Trump has never been accused of engaging in any wrongdoing for his business dealings with those companies, but it’s true that the Mafia has long controlled much of the concrete industry in New York.
***When Americans like Trump purchase their steel through Ossen, they are providing financial benefits to an array of Chinese companies and even the government. For example, Ossen corporate records show Chinese banks provide all of its short-term financing in the form of loans that almost all mature after one year, and then are replaced by new loans; most Chinese banks are arms of the state, tightly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, and provide financing to companies that are competitors to American manufacturers in other industries. (For example, the Chinese companies that manufacture suits and ties for the Donald Trump Signature Collection also obtain loans from mainland banks; Trump has said he has been forced to use the Chinese for his clothing lines because no American company makes those kinds of products anymore. That is not true—for example, all Brooks Brothers ties are made in New York, while about 85% of the company’s suits are made in Massachusetts.)
Another recent Trump building that has used metal from China is Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago, which opened in 2009. For that project, Trump obtained loans from Deutsche Bank and three hedge funds that in turn used financing from George Soros, the business magnate who is the subject of many conservative conspiracy theories and is portrayed as a threat to the Republican Party.
The building required tons of aluminum and Trump elected not to purchase the metal from Alcoa or any other similar American producer, but instead turn to a subsidiary of a Chinese aluminum manufacturer. Because American businesses have been turning to cheaper aluminum from overseas, the industry is collapsing. For example, in just the last two years, more than half of the country’s aluminum smelters in states like Ohio, West Virginia and Texas have closed as a result of being undercut on price by competition from overseas.
It’s the same long con Republicans and some Dems in WV have been running on the coal miners here fort decades. Just scream “BRING OUR COAL JOBS BACK” loud enough and no one will pay attention to what they are actually doing.