Come for the politics, stay for the snark.
I was going to post some stuff about the Trump admin putting a Koch Industries hack in charge of weakening environmental protections for birds so that energy companies can kill our feathered friends with impunity while pursuing profits. But why bother? Everything the Trump admin is doing is evil and must be opposed. There — covered it all in a dozen words!
Other than that, I got nothin.’ Open thread!
The individual mandate is gone. And this helps subsidized buyers.
The Congressional Budget Office thinks that the lack of a mandate will raise individual market premiums by 10% because healthier people who either receive low subsidies or no subsidies will leave the market. A sicker risk pool on average leads to higher premiums. The pain overwhelmingly falls on the non-subsidized as the subsidy eligible portion of the ACA market, those families who make between 100% and 400% ($12,020-$48,080 for a single adult) Federal Poverty Line could see even better subsidies.
I’ve been fascinated for years now that the relevant number for subsidized buyers is not the absolute premium but the spread between any plan and the Silver Benchmark. For plans that cost less then the Benchmark Silver, the subsidized buyer gets a better deal. The bigger the gap, the lower the monthly premium. The lower the monthly premium, the more likely a low utilizing individual will buy a plan. The lower the monthly premium, the more likely a low utilizer will stick with a plan for the entire year.
The graphic below is just a toy model with 2017, 2018 and 2019 pricing for a single county with a single insurer offering a single plan on a single network in Bronze, Silver and Gold. I am making up the baseline pricing for illustration and intuition.
Let’s work through this underneath the fold:
Premium Spreads for Subsidized Buyers in a no Mandate WorldPost + Comments (7)
Good Morning All,
There are issues with the form; I’ll work on them next week, but I’ve got more consuming and time-sensitive things owning me.
I apparently did something wrong and so my post for Tuesday…didn’t. I blame considerable amounts of cats, food, family, and only part of the Doctor Who Christmas Special. I could have had lots to drink, but a small rum and coke when finally home sufficed – the day was draining enough.
I haven’t written about my mom much yet because I had some family issues to work out first. I’m pleased to say that this process has begun and so hope to share about this amazing, neat woman next week.
Have a wonderful day, and enjoy the pictures!
I saw @BarackObama speak in Chicago a couple of weeks ago. He said that he didn’t watch cable news when he was POTUS because everything on there was stuff he had learned a long time before it was on TV. https://t.co/9skSSSVQib
— Julie Bosman (@juliebosman) December 23, 2017
Stephen Greenblatt, with an op-ed in the NYTimes:
… [A] team of researchers has published, in the peer-edited journal Nature Communications, the results of an extensive study of storytelling among the Agta, a contemporary population of hunter-gatherers in the Philippines. The lesson: Stories matter.
Scientists are fascinated by the few groups of hunter-gatherers remaining on the planet, since it is thought that they reflect our species’ earliest successful way of life, before the invention of agriculture. They are closely studied to solve a riddle that has long puzzled evolutionary biologists: How did humans learn cooperative behavior such as food-sharing, the care of others, the coordination of tasks, the acceptance of social norms? The answer, it seems, has everything to do with the stories we tell.
As is typical among bands of foragers, Agta stories emphasize the values of gender equality, friendship and the social acceptance of difference. Consider the following myth: “There is a dispute between the sun (male) and the moon (female) to illuminate the sky. After a fight, where the moon proves to be as strong as the sun, they agree in sharing the duty — one during the day and the other during the night.” The research established that individuals who live in camps with a greater proportion of skilled storytellers cooperate more readily with one another and are therefore more successful in their foraging.
The Agta themselves are fully aware of the benefits conferred upon them by the best makers and performers of stories. When asked to choose with whom they would most like to live, they overwhelmingly favored gifted storytellers over those who were known for their skill in hunting, fishing, tuber gathering or medicine. Life, most of those polled agreed, is simply better in the company of good stories…
Yeah, well, the people responsible for the “reporting” on the front pages of the NYTimes would probably tell you (if they were forced into honesty) that the stories they tell its readers have produced exactly the results they intended. But then, quite possibly, they’d be lying to themselves… again.
Quick story: Let me tell you about the democrat I support in 2018.
They're they ones with the (D) in front of their name on the ballot.
That's my litmus test.
/1— Steve Marmel (@Marmel) December 23, 2017
I don't care where a D is on the spectrum as long as they caucus with a democrat majority and begin to unwind the damage done by Trump, McConnell and Ryan.
I don't care what you call yourself.
If you win, and you're (D) and you can flip a seat, you have my support.
/4— Steve Marmel (@Marmel) December 23, 2017
So today, realizing we are less than a year from the 2018 election, that's where I stand.
Every (D) candidate, good luck.
Anybody who can cut the Trump cancer from our Democracy, I'm for you.
Let's get registered.
Let's be prepared.
And Stay Angry.
We have work to do.
/X— Steve Marmel (@Marmel) December 23, 2017
Wednesday Morning Open Thread: The Stories We Tell Each OtherPost + Comments (128)
Yuki is an absolute princess and I love everything about her, but she is a touch needy. She has been surgically attached to me all day, and she must have some part of her body touching me at all points:
Here she is helping your fat host surf the internet:
Whoever gets this dog is hitting the jackpot. She does snore like a jetplane with asthma, though, and it appears that chicken nuggets give her the farts. But other than that, she is perfect.
You can bring guns into the new Tennessee legislative building, but you have to leave “hand-carried signs and signs on hand sticks” because they “represent a serious safety hazard.” https://t.co/4nMvckuRDW
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 26, 2017
.
True Heartland(tm) values!
Guns YES, thoughts NO!
Which means you can walk in with your gun but if a little flag pops out of it that says 'BANG!' they'll throw ur ass out. https://t.co/ZxlvsHrPcU
— Cousin Zeddy (@ZeddRebel) December 27, 2017
Also, for Leftovers Day:
Ok this is funny pic.twitter.com/GyS64OGgbI
— Ruth H. Hopkins (@RuthHHopkins) December 25, 2017
Open Thread: <em>“You’ll Poke Your Eye Out!”</em>Post + Comments (154)
These “Trump supporters are sticking w Trump” article-supporting editors are sticking w “Trump supporters are sticking w Trump” articles. https://t.co/qLxlY573jo
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 26, 2017
Coming Wednesday: In the symbolic heart of Trump’s America, the president’s supporters stand resolutely behind him still, hopeful he’ll keep his promises to revive the coal business and the country. Read more in @AP’s Trump Country series: https://t.co/x4utyLE90u pic.twitter.com/nOcOKjNgkI
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 26, 2017
The suits assigning these articles are doing very nicely under the Trump Oval Office Occupation. The Media Village Idiots writing / mouthing the stories have all their deeply ingrained prejudices (not just about people of color, but about non-Ivy-League white people who can’t immediately tell you their SAT scores) reinforced by these stories. The moguls paying for the media are happy to assume these stories mean that all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. Whyever would they stop telling each other (and, incidentally, us) these heartwarming tales, just because they’re irrelevant to 97% of their supposed news “mission”?
at a certain point, we have to assume the media is intentionally running these to tell those of us in the blue america to go screw off https://t.co/ujzEAXLC6x
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) December 26, 2017
As a journalist I fear this is true… :-(
— Thomas Ley (@thomas_ley) December 26, 2017
I almost think interviewing Trump supporters has become the liberal journalistic equivalent of gawking at zoo animals … “look at these unusual vertebrates & their strange plumage”
— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) December 24, 2017
I'm trying to figure why there is no challenge to the coverage. Is it about " balanced treatment?" Because since they never really cover Clinton voters, there is no " balance ". Is it because the press thinks their views are so self evidently wrong? I'm perplexed TBH.
— Shuan Rose (@shmr50) December 25, 2017
I think it's fairly straightforward. Trump voters are white and are therefore important.
— Noah Berlatsky (@nberlat) December 25, 2017
It’s this unconscious sense that something has Gone Wrong when “ordinary” Americans feel “left behind”
PoC, immigrants, LGBT people feeling excluded and ignored — that’s normal and uninteresting https://t.co/tcH6tzG4Bx
— Arthur Chu (@arthur_affect) December 25, 2017