Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

Second rate reporter says what?

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Not all heroes wear capes.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

T R E 4 5 O N

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

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Open Thread

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You know one thing I really like about this shitty website? I ask a question about the fires in Australia. Moments later there is a guest post answering my questions. See on the news we killed some guy in the middle east. Log in and Adam has already answered my question.

That’s kinda cool. Full service blog.

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Respite Open Thread

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HAPPY NEWS EVERYONE — PAUL BRONKS IS BACK!

Also good for quick-hit twitter distraction, 41 Strange:

… and Haggard Hawks, language spelunker:

Respite Open ThreadPost + Comments (69)

Breaking: The US Has Struck Against the Iranian Militia In Iraq Killing Both Ktaib Hezbullah’s Leader and Quds Force Commanding General Qassem Suleimani

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I cannot emphasize enough how significant this is! Major General Suleimani was not just Iran’s point man in Iraq, he was also coordinating Iran’s proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon. When Suleimani arrived in Syria in 2013 he took control of the theater on behalf of Iran, its Syrian client Assad, and Assad’s other benefactor Putin, which is what initially turned around the fortunes of Assad’s forces. Suleimani was, arguably, the best strategist in the region who was native to the Middle East. Dexter Filkins wrote a long profile of him in 2013 for The New Yorker.

Reuters is now reporting that the US is responsible for the strike that killed Suleimani and Muhandis.

What we don’t know yet, what we will not know until they inform us through their actual response, is what the response from Iran will be. For that we have to wait.

Update at 8:50 PM EST

As I’ve now had a bit of time to digest the news, here’s a bit more developed initial analysis:

My initial take regarding the killing of Suleimani is that this decapitates Iran’s capabilities in the Twelver Shi’a sphere of influence they were trying to build from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon in the short term. Suleimani was their theater commander, specifically coordinating the proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is also my professional opinion that he was the best strategist in the region who was native to the region. So a major blow to Iran’s, as well as their proxies, immediate capability. Suleimani was also very powerful back in Iran. There were mutterings he might succeed Khameini as Supreme Leader despite not being an ayatollah.

This strike will also enrage the Iranians and provide the Iranian government with an internal opening for influence and propaganda to rally support for the Iranian state among a domestic Iranian population that may be wavering. So it will likely retard reform in general and attempts at democratization in specific in the short to medium term. Especially if there is immediate Iranian response and/or escalation to today’s attack and a US response to Iran’s actions that can be used by the Iranian government to reinforce its standing with the Iranian people.

Finally, I don’t see why anyone in the Iranian government would talk to anyone in the US government at this point while the current administration is in place. The President, his senior officials, and surrogates have made it clear that they really aren’t interested in talking. Last week Putin announced  that he’s not going to go along with the sanctions regime against Iran any longer, which further reinforces to Iran that they don’t need to talk to us as they have Putin to leverage as a patron. I also expect that Iran will sell their oil to the Chinese because Xi could care less about our sanctions. There is no way to squeeze the Iranians economically as the government is impervious to the pain and has ways to sell its oil to ease that pain. You can find my take on why making war in Iran would be strategic malpractice unless we were prepared for total war and even then it isn’t a good idea at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

Open thread!

Breaking: The US Has Struck Against the Iranian Militia In Iraq Killing Both Ktaib Hezbullah’s Leader and Quds Force Commanding General Qassem SuleimaniPost + Comments (313)

Election 2020 Open Thread: It’s Not A Campaign, It’s A Performance

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So Sanders’ most online supporters have successfully gamed the system — and the media — into another BIG WIN FOR BERNIE!!! media cycle, this time concerning his fundraising:

Hey, as long as it’s good for the credit-card companies, amirite? Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Meanwhile, out in the real(ish) world, where the actual work is done…

Part of the price of relying on volunteers and interns is that every campaign will be plagued with staffers who spend more time cultivating their personal issues than working on their candidate’s official program. But of course the Sanders campaign is the one whose staffers feel the need to contact the media about this eternal dynamic!

Also, it was reported as Excellent news for Bernie! when Jeff ‘Comic Book Guy’ Weaver lost his position as the official face of the Sanders campaign. Perhaps the political horse-race touts predicted this would give Weaver more opportunity to play to his real strength, nitpicking minor details and curating grudges…

Sen. Bernie Sanders frequently attacks Amazon on the campaign trail, vowing to break up the online retail giant if elected, denouncing its treatment of workers and decrying its ability to pay no federal taxes on billions in profits.

That’s why impassioned dissent erupted within the Sanders campaign earlier this year over its purchases of large amounts of supplies through Amazon, according to five people with knowledge of the situation…

The Sanders campaign continued using Amazon despite the concerns. Through September, it had spent more than $233,000 on Amazon purchases — much of it in office supplies, and often through Amazon’s Marketplace feature — a review of campaign finance records shows…

The campaign’s spending on Amazon is a small fraction of the more than $40 million it shelled out on operating expenditures during the same period. But it was more than other campaigns spent on the company, and more than enough to prompt surprise and complaints from staffers who felt it conflicted with the campaign’s principles…

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Australia Is Burning: A Guest Post from The Mighty Trowel

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Commenter The Mighty Trowel, who lives in Australia, sent me a guest post on the Australia fires:

I’m mostly a lurker these days; but this seemed an apt time to stick my head above the parapet. I’m an American, but I’ve lived in Australia for the last 8 years.

I’m sure by now you’ve seen coverage of the bushfire crisis we’re currently enduring Down Under. Photographs of red skies, tall flames, native fauna fleeing and burnt out houses have gone global. It’s on the cover of all our papers too – also on all our minds, especially those of us (like me) that live in the southeast in fire-prone areas. I asked Adam if I could write this guest post because I wanted an excuse to talk through this ongoing crisis to an audience I didn’t have to constantly reassure about my own safety (yes, I’m safe), but I also notice that some of the local context is (surprise) missing in the international coverage.

This has been the most destructive bushfire season in Australian history. So far (and we’re only halfway through fire season!) nearly 6 million hectares have burnt, at least 1300 homes have burnt down and nearly 20 people have died (including three firefighters – more on that in a minute) with nearly 20 more unaccounted for. Out of control fires have been burning in Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) since September, in South Australia, West Australia and Tasmania since November. Most of these fires started with lightning strikes, but there have been a few cases of arson and others where backburning (controlled burns to use up fuel and protect inhabited areas) has escaped containment. These fires have devastated communities, killing tens of thousands of sheep and cattle, but they’ve also ripped through natural habitats and populations of native fauna. Current estimates suggest that at least (AT LEAST) 30% of NSW koalas have been killed by the fires.

To give a sense of the scale of the disaster, here’s a map published by the Insurance Council of Australia with highlighting areas of ‘insurance catastrophes’:

With a disaster of this scale, it’s unsurprising that the firefighting crews are thin on the ground. But there’s context here that also needs stating: while there are a number of professional, paid units (though the right wing New South Wales government keeps cutting their budgets and reducing their numbers), much of the work protecting communities, clearing roads and building containment lines is being done by volunteers like the CFS and RFS. Volunteers are the ones dying as they drive through dangerous fire grounds. Many have reported that their own houses have burnt while they helped neighbours protect theirs. The work they are doing is literally saving lives, but they’ve been doing this life-threatening, high stress job for months with no pay, few resources and little support beyond thoughts and prayers from our ‘leaders’ (in recent days, faced with the scale of the crisis and the backlash from the Australian public) the PM has promised some compensation to some volunteer firies and required the civil service to give all volunteers a month paid leave to fight fires. 

State and federal environmental departments, academics and fire chiefs had all warned that this year had the potential for a monstrous fire season. Local fire departments and volunteer organisations (the country fire authority in Victoria, the rural fire service in NSW, the country fire service in South Australia) spent as much of the winter as possible backburning, but the winter was short and dry – dangerous conditions for controlled burns. We’re in the midst of an incredibly severe drought and major climatic patterns have contributed to a particularly hot, dry winter and spring. This means that not only are plants dried out and dying (more fuel for fires to burn) but the air and soil are thoroughly dehydrated too which allows fire to spread faster.

I highly recommend reading this piece by the brilliant Prof Nerilie Abram for the scientific and climatic context. As she writes:

The angry summer playing out in Australia right now was predictable. The scientific evidence is well known for how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing long-term climate change and altering climate variability in ways that increase our fire risk. The role of climate change in the unprecedented fires gripping Australia is also well understood by our emergency services. Sadly, though, this summer has occurred against a backdrop in which the Australian government has argued, on the world stage, to scale back our greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction targets. Our leaders are literally fiddling while the country burns.

Because that’s the thing… we knew this was coming, but the pollies have buried their heads in the sand in a way that reminds me ominously of Bush and co post Katrina. Our Prime Minister Scott Morrison (who once showed up to parliament with an ornamental lump of coal) has been absent from the conversation (literally in the case of the week he spent cavorting in Hawaii while western Sydney and the Blue Mountains burned).

(Mural by artist Scottie Marsh) 

The NSW emergency services minister is currently refusing to return from Paris where he’s holidaying with family. No state of national emergency has been declared even though 5 states are facing unprecedented emergencies and the Australian Defense Forces are (after considerable delay) having to rescue people from beaches in fire-affected communities that now have no water, electricity, telephone services or road access. For the record, Labour (our centre left party and chief opposition) have been pretty awful – they’re also cosying up to coal extraction companies and the current party leader is inarticulate at best)

I’ve been asking myself for days why the PM and others are so reluctant to lift a finger. Consensus among friends and colleagues is that it would mean acknowledging climate change is a real and destructive force that must be reckoned with. Conspiracies floating around the internet suggest that the PM wants the fire to clear land so he can sell it for profit to cronies and overseas consortia. I think it’s simpler than any of these: 

No one is holding these politicians to account for their inaction and their abdication of leadership, so they’re not bothering to lead.

More than that, a clear campaign of misinformation is being conducted by the Murdoch press and through anonymous facebook and twitter accounts that bushfires are normal for Australia and that the fires are all set by arsonists or are the fault of “greenies” who prevent backburning (despite only holding power in the Australian Capitol Territory (ACT) which is currently not on fire—though it is swamped in toxic smoke).

Climate change just seems to be too large for politicians with their notoriously short attention spans and transactional philosophies to get their heads around. The political class is so far out of their depth that they’re drowning in public and don’t even realise it. I genuinely don’t know what happens next.

If there’s an upside to these fires it’s that their enormity might be the one thing that can unite communities that have been set against each other on the basis of race, immigration, class, etc. for generations. We just have to live through them first.

Anyhow, here’s a magpie singing like a fire engine.

Donations can be made to:

Red Cross bushfire disaster relieve and recovery fund: https://www.redcross.org.au/campaigns/disaster-relief-and-recovery-new-years-eve?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialorganic&utm_campaign=201913_drr_disaster-relief-and-recovery_don_transient_bushfires_none

Rural Fire Service: https://quickweb.westpac.com.au/OnlinePaymentServlet?cd_community=NSWRFS&cd_currency=AUD&cd_supplier_business=DONATIONS&action=EnterDetails

Country Fire Authority: https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/supporting-cfa

South Australian Country Fire Service: https://cfsfoundation.org.au/donate

Community support org Givit, active nationally: http://www.givit.org.au/donate-funds

Emergency Management Victoria community relief fund: https://www.emv.vic.gov.au/news/community-relief-fund-launched-to-support-fire-affected-communities

Some affected community members have launched GoFundMe’s for their towns – this is one the Australian Broadcasting Corporation posted, so I assume it’s legit: https://www.gofundme.com/f/xycjem-cudgewa-has-burnt?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet

Here’s another legit gofundme to put on the list, this one for First Nations communities affected by the fires:  https://www.gofundme.com/f/fire-relief-fund-for-first-nations-communities
Open thread!
PS – Adam here, I’ll be along tomorrow to write a bit about the current and future national security implications of climate change.

Australia Is Burning: A Guest Post from The Mighty TrowelPost + Comments (129)

Why Does No One Care?

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Imagine if everything east of the Mississippi was on fire. Literally everything. Entire populations displaced, species being wiped out, cataclysmic infernos. And then imagine the entire world just yawning and the President saying “No big deal.”

There’s no need to really imagine that, actually, because that is pretty much exactly what is going on in Australia. And yes, there has been some media coverage, but compare an entire continent on fire to the coverage when Notre Dame caught on fire.

It’s fucking mind-boggling. I wonder if part of this is because we have to continue our denial of climate change?

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This, This, This

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Catherine Rampell has a few resolutions for the media. This one really hit home:

Don’t spend more time analyzing an idea that the president proposes than he spent coming up with it.

This one is hard, I know. Sometimes Trump says things that are just so wrong, in so many ways, that it’s difficult to resist the urge to enumerate all the details of their wrongness.

But a 4 a.m. cyberbullying toilet tweet about Kim Jong Un doesn’t necessarily mean there’s an actual, deliberate shift in diplomatic strategy. A blurted parenthetical about how he’d love to pass a middle-class tax cut, the biggest tax cut ever, doesn’t mean he seriously plans to propose such a thing. Let’s not pretend a secret plan actually exists and then conjure up tea leaves for experts to read.

Don’t impute more seriousness or thoughtfulness than ad-libbed drivel deserves.

Trump’s Twitter feed is like a chicken shit cannon from which the media is constantly trying to make chicken salad. It’s a goddam waste of time and the sooner they find a way to ignore most of it, the better for all of us.

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