(Ghost of Kyiv Mural, Image posted by Illia Ponomarenko)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians! I wish you health!
Today, I held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief this week. The heads of the defense and security sectors were present, as usual: Zaluzhny, Monastyrsky, Budanov, Maliuk, Danilov and others. The commanders of operational areas – Syrsky, Litvinov, Kovalchuk – reported on the state of affairs.
I think that you all understand what the main questions are. Certain decisions have also been made. I think we will all see them. We also considered today the issue of supporting our military, comprehensive support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
I held a meeting devoted to the state’s further steps in European integration. This is another operational direction of our work – daily important work.
For us, the movement of Ukraine to the European Union and the transformation within our country is one of the key elements of the long-term protection of the state, a guarantee of freedom for all Ukrainians. Therefore, the European integration process deserves not just separate attention to political, economic, social, and legal aspects, but a holistic approach. Moving towards Europe, we are strengthening Ukrainian national life as a whole. I am sure that Ukraine will become a full member of the EU. At least let’s do everything for it.
I took part today in the work of an important forum in Italy. One of the most influential economic forums in Europe is the Ambrosetti Forum. I thanked Prime Minister Draghi, all Italians who help us and also protect the Ukrainian desire for freedom, for Europe. He proposed new directions of cooperation between our states – now and after our victory.
It is important for Ukraine to maintain and strengthen Italian support despite any changes in political attitudes. By the way, this week it was the second address to Italian society – after the address to the participants and guests of the Venice Film Festival.
We are fighting for support and understanding of Ukraine in all European countries, in all audiences of European societies. I remind you every time that the protection of Ukraine is the protection of all of Europe. Not only ours, but the entire democratic world.
It is from this point of view that it is worth considering the decision agreed today by the G7 countries to cap the price of Russian oil. When this mechanism is implemented, it will become an important element of protecting civilized countries and energy markets from Russian hybrid aggression.
Indeed, the price of Russian gas must also be capped. I am grateful to Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, who said this today. It is long overdue for such energy sanctions against Russia. The sanctions that will not only limit the flow of petrodollars and gas euros to Moscow, but also, importantly, restore justice for all Europeans, whom Russia is trying to blackmail with artificially inflated prices on the energy market.
I signed another decree on awarding our soldiers. 166 combatants were given state awards, 44 of them posthumously. Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Eternal glory to all our soldiers who beat the invaders everywhere in Ukraine, on our land! The Kharkiv area, Donetsk region, the entire Donbas, the south, Crimea – Ukraine is and will be everywhere. That’s it! There will be freedom. That’s it! And there will be Europe. We will never give ours to the occupiers.
Glory to Ukraine!
The Ukrainian MOD did not post an operational update today.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessment regarding the situation at the Zapoprizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT: A UN team of IAEA technicians has entered the site. 5 technicians remained over night and will continue their examinations today. UKR President Zelensky of accused Russia of turning an essential trip into “a fruitless tour of the plant.” pic.twitter.com/8XpCLG9L2d
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) September 2, 2022
This is how the Russians explain the situation to @IAEAorg
"As the shell falls, it makes a 180° turn": the answer a representative of the IAEA received when asked why the shell stuck out as if it was launched from the occupied territory.
What do you think the report will say? pic.twitter.com/7DPtlsVd7o
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 2, 2022
And here is Pfarrer’s assessment of the situation in Crimea:
UKRAINE’S ACE IN THE HOLE: CRIMEA’S WATER: A recent Ukraine precision strike took out a pumping unit at the dam complex at Nova Kakhovka. This was a not so subtle reminder that Ukraine controls the water supply to Russian occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/q7vNnls3FF
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) September 2, 2022
The CAP is up over Stockholm!
B52:s overflying Stockholm at low altitude.
USAF is around to help bolster deterrence and morale. https://t.co/89IaskjW9H
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) September 2, 2022
CNN has an update on Ukraine’s efforts in Kherson:
16 hr 21 min ago Ukraine claims Russia has suffered “significant losses” in south
From CNN’s Olga Voitovych and Tim Lister
Russian forces have suffered “significant losses” in the southern region of Kherson following the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched earlier this week, Ukraine’s military said Friday.
“The enemy suffers quite significant losses — losses in manpower have gone from tens to hundreds. Equipment also burns. […] Therefore, our successes are quite convincing, and I think very soon we will be able to disclose more positive news,” said Natalia Humeniuk, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian military in the south.
“We continue to destroy the enemy in terms of its logistics, capabilities, capacities. Ammunition warehouses explode, pontoon crossings explode. It means that the enemy’s logistics and transport connections are undermined to such an extent that they cannot raise reserves.”Operational Command South claimed that a range of targets had been struck, including a ferry crossing.
“Our air forces carried out 18 strikes on command and support posts, warehouses with ammunition and fuel and lubricants, as well as logistics and transport facilities,” it said.
According to Operational Command South, three important bridges across the Dnipro river— Antonivskyi, Kakhovskyi and Dariivskyi — are ongoing targets.
Ukrainian forces have been trying to prevent Russian troops from resupplying their units north of the river, essentially cutting off Russian defensive positions.
However, Russian forces continue to shell more than a dozen Ukrainian settlements behind a front line that runs roughly along Kherson’s northern border.
There has been little indication of territory changing hands in the area.
Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s assessment of the situation in Kherson, including a map:
My hypothesis on what’s Ukraine doing in Kherson region.
The Ukrainian military likely put a stake on gradually exhausting and embattling Russia’s grouping on the Dnipro right bank — while also keeping it isolated from supplies and from across the river… pic.twitter.com/cO7vVckrvd— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 2, 2022
… that would guarantee nothing but a high Ukrainian death toll. So the command has to use their brains and do it in a more subtle way.
I think this operation is not about territorial gains per se, but about grinding the Russian group of 20-25 BTGs down in hard combat…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 2, 2022
… and constant Ukrainian strikes upon Russian GLOCs and river crossings. Ukrainian need to always deny Russia of its ability to go on feeding its forces on the Dnipro right bank. That’s a lot of work to do.
So yeah – it’s way too early to tell if this operation was a success.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 2, 2022
I think this is a smart assessment based on what we know is going on from the reporting.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Carlo Graziani
Ponomarenko’s take does make sense. If the objective isn’t territory, but rather the Russian army and its dwindling supply of manpower, perhaps we won’t see a lot of strategic captures, but instead the Ukrainians will have figured out how to invite the Russians into killing zones at favorable exchanges. Not sure how that would work on offense, in this sort of open, flattish terrain, but I suppose that is what “shaping” is supposed to do.
On today’s War on the Rocks podcast, Michael Kofman asserted that HIMARS rounds are now being employed directly against tactical targets on the battlefield, as opposed to (or at least in addition to) against rear area supply and C3. That is a sign of going in hot, as those rockets are in short supply, and they won’t be able to keep that tactic up for long.
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam for your enlightening updates, & your persistence w/ them!
Illia Ponomarenko’s take is indeed a smart one, & a smart strategy for the Ukrainian to pursue. However, I think it would be much more difficult to execute in offensive action against an entrenched & prepared enemy, as opposed to grinding down the opposing force from your own entrenched positions (as the Ukrainian Army did against the Russian Army in the Battle of Donbas, & lest we forget the Ukrainian Army suffered heavy losses in that battle).
Whether that has indeed been the Ukrainian strategy for the current operation, & whether the Ukrainian Army is succeeding in this strategy, depends on the losses it has been taking, which we do not have much insight into from open sources. Russian claims of Ukrainian losses have no credibility, & Ukraine is claiming significant losses of Russian equipment but comparatively few Russian personnel (& probably should not be taken at face value in any case).
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
traditionally, you push, push, push, until the enemy breaks.
it’s fairly uncommon in modern war to have such advantage, for a quick break through.
Carlo Graziani
What is the B-52 mission over Sweden? Those things aren’t viable bombers anymore. I saw an article on The Drive about a few of them being converted to cargo. What is their value?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
This line really struck me, for its simplicity yet stark accuracy. So whatever is exactly happening in Kherson, and however it goes in the coming weeks and months, if the invaders are suffering losses, I see that as a positive thing. It’s not a thought I ever expected to have, but such is the world into which the enemy has forced all of us.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
the modern role of the B52 is to carry a thousand long range , precision guided JDAM’s with in the launch range, and with the aid of other targetting aids, (drones, SOF, FAC’s) put 500lb bombs on 1000 targets scattered across 500 miles of area.
dmsilev
@Carlo Graziani: That strategy does, however, rely on the Russians being stupid/stubborn and not simply pulling back from the kill zone (i.e. retreat across the river). Given the Russian political imperatives, probably not a bad operating assumption.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani:
They’re still used for ALCM, aren’t they?
As of last year, CSIS says they’re still in service.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
@Jay: They’re also very visually distinctive, and scream to even the layman “the USAF is helping to patrol these skies”. That’s probably the real message being sent with this particular flyby.
Another Scott
@dmsilev: +1
They’re hard to miss, visually.
In related news, because everything’s related to Ukraine these days, …
IANAL, but is seems that the DoJ is not messing around. Maybe this is another indication that the present judge is a bit over her head and should not think that she can make up new laws and procedures on the fly on well-settled things like national security documents…
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@dmsilev:
due to the Corp I worked for, at the time, I was a front line observer of the JDLM/B52 tests at Cold Lake.
(they wanted to ensure it worked in a “less” connected area than White Sands).
*we made one of the computers.
The test wen’t well, but we never saw the B52, which was in a orbit just north of Edmonton.
The B52 has evolved from a blunt force weapon, ( nukes, Rolling Thunder), to an airborne warehouse of long range Precision Guided Weapons.
Sebastian
Ponomarenko said something in passing that was on my mind the last few days:
feeding
Russia has 25,000 troops in that pocket which need fuel, ammunition, and food. With the limited ways to supply them, fuel and ammunition will be prioritized and those troops will start to suffer from hunger if they aren’t already.
Carlo Graziani
One thing that I don’t have a good sense of, but that RT sat imagery ought to help with, is how assiduous have the Russians been at digging in to prepare for the attack/offensive.
One thing that turned out to be decisive for the Donbas campaign is the fact that the Ukrainians had spent years preparing for it, and had WWI-style trench systems and strongpoints ready to accept troops running for hundreds of miles. This stood them in good stead in the first phase of the campaign, when the Russians hubristically attempted to envelop the whole salient between Izium and Donetsk, and the Ukrainians stopped both sides of the pincers cold.
The Russians spent July and early August on the offensive in Kherson oblast, pushing back annoying HIMARS strikes at their bridges and rear areas, and attempting spoiling attacks to unbalance the Ukrainians. I’m not sure how much time and effort they have put into serious entrenching efforts, or into creating minefield-delineated killing zones for their defensive strongpoints, and that sort of thing. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising if they had waited too long to get ready to greet the Ukrainians properly.
Gin & Tonic
This guy is a good follow, if you understand Ukrainian.
The pic shows a debit card issued to russian soldiers. The Ukrainian text says “You came to my land to bring death for money. Now you have no land, no money, no life. And so it will be with each of you.”
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Dang.
The Moar You Know
@Carlo Graziani: They hell they aren’t. We have only two: B-52, B-2. The B-2 doesn’t get sent out for a lot of stuff as they run 2.1 billion each. The BLUF still does the lion’s share of bombing for America, and the fleet is just finishing up an full upgrade that will keep them flying until at least 2040
Also a flying cruise missile warehouse, as noted above.
Carlo Graziani
@Sebastian: I see. That actually brings things into better focus. It explains why the Ukrainians are willing to commit scarce HIMARS M-31 rockets to a high-intensity fight now. They have a fat supply pipe, and the Russians are sucking through a thin straw. So the higher the Ukrainians force the consumption rate of materiel to go, the worse the logistical situation gets for the Russians, and the closer they get to a decison to withdraw.
I think you got it.
Another Scott
I can’t interpret what’s moving where, not knowing the maps. But interesting thread. Satellites are always watching…
These pictures are dated 8/31.
Thread.
Inshallah.
(via Oryx)
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
I assume the plan is to take everything up to the Dnieper and leave it as a natural barrier, reducing their forces along that front and pivoting most of what they have to Zapoprizhzhia, correct?
Anonymous At Work
@dmsilev: It also relies on unit morale being high enough that a pull-back doesn’t become a stampeding retreat. Russian units on the west side of the river don’t want to be the last one to try and cross, or even get stuck. Given Russian lack of rest/rotation, ammo, and now potable water, would you trust the units to retreat only a little?
Question for general audience: What’s the Russians’ next line of defense and general strategy if they retreat from Kherson? Scorched earth and ruined bridges only buy you so much time when HIMARS are paralyzing your artillery.
eversor
For those who don’t know what a B-52 can do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqPFRzw9748
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqcNt92VeKU
It’s not a stealth bomber, it’s an older and greater “just fuck you” level item. When everything needs to go, and you quit giving a fuck about how much will go, this is what you call.
patrick II
@dmsilev: I don’t know that the Russians can retreat across the river any easier than they can move logistics forward across the river . The few bridges are death traps either way.
Anonymous At Work
@Martin: The armchair general part of me thinks that advancing to put Crimea and Kerch Bridge in jeopardy might pin down more Russian forces for the buck. And you want to prepare for winter and not give the Russians a chance to dig in where you want to advance. But you don’t want to waste a chance to prepare for the next Russian push.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I think the plan, and this is supposition based on the reporting, is that the Ukrainians want to suck the Russians into the municipal areas like Kherson proper where they can pick them off within the context of cutting them off from support and resupply and the ability to retreat by cutting off the means to escape by cutting them off from the river.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: Basically a freedom of air navigation combined with showing the flag in support of an ally.
Mallard Filmore
@dmsilev:
All the Youtube videos I watch claim that pulling back across the river means swimming for a kilometer or so. If the battle gets to that state, a long line of soldiers
walkingrunning across the damaged bridges would be too tempting a target for UA artillery to pass up.Another Scott
GovExec:
Maybe bundling everything together will finally get the COVID money through. It’s criminal that it’s been held up so long.
Fingers crossed.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: Exactly this.
eversor
@Sebastian:
“An Army fights on it’s stomach” learn that and know it. Numbers don’t matter if they have no water and no food. That’s the first issues. Then you have ammo and fuel. After that parts.
Wars are always a logistics issue.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: It will not. Expect a shutdown.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
one thing that always struck me in vids of the first Russian invasion, into vids of the second Russian invasion, was how easy it was to find Russian positions, ( just look for the garbage piles), and how poor they were.
Older, ( still valid), CAF video on how to build a trench.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mQHLd1ZO-4k
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: My big fear, and one which I’m certain has been thought about at UKR MOD, is that once the Russian army is safely across the river it will remember its favorite pastime and point of military excellence, which is demolishing cities by massed artillery.
I really hope there is a counterbattery capability and plan to deal with this, because there is no doubt in my mind thst the Russians will tell themselves some story that makes the pulverization of Kherson a military necessity.
eversor
@Jay:
They fucking raided a top military to buy condos in NYC, Miami, and London, also fancy yatchs. This is the price of that. Say what you will about American military grift but at least the damn things show up and do work.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah. I think this is the key. No territorial objectives. Just drive up the burn rate as high as possible. We have a big fat supply pipe. You are gasping to suck on a straw. Enjoy your logistical nightmare.
It’s brilliant.
eversor
Also for civilians BLUF is the polite BUFF which means Big Ugly Fat Fucker and it’s larger than you’d think
(you can swap flying for fat but that’s not the slang)
moops
My guess, which is my own, is the trapped and starving units on the wrong side of the river end up surrendering. Many of their command have already retreated and left them in the kill zone.
Jay
@eversor:
most Russian soldiers are 2 year conscripts, (draftees),
in a NATO trained force, after 2 years, ( as a grunt), you are considered to be barely functional and your Sgnt. Major barely trusts you to wipe your ass properly.
I don’t think that Putin and the slovaki broke the Russian Army. Even in Soviet days their whole thing was numbers over quality.
Sister Golden Bear
@Sebastian:
Ukraine doesn’t necessarily need to push for actual breakthrough, just posing the threat of one will be enough to keep the Russian troops fixed in the area. I’ll be curious to see if, after the Russians bring in reinforcements, the Ukrainian finish destroying the only (3?) bridges usable for a retreat, thus trapping the Russians and without the ability for them to be easily resupplied.
eversor
@Jay:
well aware
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani: It also would explain all the bullshit about opsec. They aren’t concealing the order of battle, which by now (96 hours past first contact) the Russians know probably down to the company level. They’re concealing operational objectives, which they basically have to do by telling the media to bugger off on every query “because opsec”. They don’t want the Russians to know that they’re just trying to get them to burn out their artillery tubes and fire off all their machine gun belts and use up all their tank ammo.
Just want to hat tip @Sebastian again. This offensive made no sense to me, but I may understand it now,
Jay
@Sister Golden Bear:
if you google Russian Army, Ukraine, hunger, they havn’t been properly fed since day 1.
Sister Golden Bear
@Jay: No disagreement. That’s one reason this pursue the strategy I’m speculating about.
fake irishman
Anyone know what those fighters escorting the B-52s are? Swedish Grippen? Eurofighter Typhoon? F-16s? F-35s? Some mixture?
Another Scott
@fake irishman:
JAS Gripen escorts
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Marc
There are actually three, the B-1B is still in service. There are two distinct groupings of B-52s, a small number equipped to carry nuclear-armed ALCMs and a larger number (like the ones above) equipped for various conventional air to surface and cruise missiles, along with guided and dumb free-fall bombs. Only the B-2s (and eventual B-21s) are now considered capable of entering contested airspace, the rest would be used as stand-off missile trucks.
Sebastian
@Anonymous At Work:
I don’t believe the Ukrainians are playing for Russian retreat, but for capturing 20k POWs.
@Carlo Graziani:
Yes. The Russians can only withdraw via pontoon bridges and barges as the bridges are already damaged and cannot support armored vehicles anymore. Not sure about trucks.
Either way, the bridges are within reach of artillery which makes them a kill zone and the UAF know that the Russians will blow them up during retreat so there is no upside in holding back too long to destroy them.
20k POWs however is something not even Putin can ignore. Besides, noone wants these guys being forced back into service, useless as they may be, they can still push the fire button on a MLRS or feed a mortar.
kalakal
The Russians cannot afford to lose Kherson politically, militarily they’d be better off pulling back to east of the Dnipro, as it is they are having to commit increasing numbers of troops to a position with extremely vulnerable supply lines where Ukraninian artillery can pound hell out of them. As a bonus moving units long distances from Donbas etc causes attrition in of itself. Those poorly maintained AFVs will be breaking down & clagging roads for 100s of miles. Logistically the west bank of the Dnipro is a nightmare in an era of long range precision artillery. Morale will be cratering as basic supplies become scarce and those Russian squaddies will be nervously looking over their shoulders at their (very) dubious paths of retreat.
As General Ducrot summed up the French position at Sedan to Napoleon III
“Nous sommes dans un pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés. “
kalakal
@eversor: I remember years ago going on a tour at RAF Lakenheath ( where B52s live in the UK) .
The guide referred to a B52 as a BUFF and someone as him what that meant.
“Oh it’s just our slang for them, it stands for Big Ugly Fat Fu….. Fellow”
Chetan Murthy
I’m starting to read more and more reports of Ukrainian refugees getting attacked by Russians in Germany and other European countries. It’s pretty disturbing, and even moreso that it seems the authorities aren’t putting a stop to it. WTH is wrong with Europeans[1], do they need us to be the policeman *forever* ? B/c we haven’t displayed the best tendencies of late, they might oughta get their shit shorted.
[1] that statement doesn’t apply anywhere near as much to the CEE countries, where it seems both the populace and their governments are stalwartly supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees.
Chetan Murthy
the fuck is this? I’m starting to wonder if he’s a RU agent.
kalakal
@Chetan Murthy: He’s been paid by the Russians for years. Since he became an ex-Chancellor about 20 yrs ago he’s been the front man for Nordstream, Gazprom & Rosneft in the West. He’s an effing traitor.
He’s also probably very nervous about standing near upstairs windows
Chetan Murthy
@kalakal: Oh la, thank you for reminding me. I saw “Schroeder” but read “Scholz”. Yeah, Schroeder needs to move to fucking Chelyabinsk-47 (or whatever that closed city is called). Fucker blotted his copybook years ago.
I was thinking this was the current chancellor, and getting incensed.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
Nope.
The Rethugs have been more than willing to shut down the government when it’s a long time until the next election, plenty of time for voters’ memories of the resulting inconveniences to fade. Fall 2013, December/January 2018/2019 were ideal times for them to shut things down.
Every time it happens, everyone knows it’s the Rethugs who are responsible, and the polls reflect it. But the effect on people’s attitudes reflected in the polling doesn’t last until the next election when it’s a year away.
But this would be five weeks before the election. Might have one of those instances where the government’s officially shut down over the October 1-2 weekend, but it’s up and running on Monday 10/3 and nobody notices that anything’s gone awry. But I’d bet real money that that’s as far as it goes.
Chetan Murthy
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html
brave, brave people.