Around lunch time, I got a text from TaMara asking me about Kyrgystan and Tajikistan. I’d been offline working on something up to that point and actually had to look up what she was talking about. Apparently, we had one of the semi-regular border dispute boil overs between the two today. This is not the same as the Azerbaijani attack against Armenia at the beginning of the week, but it is related. One of the major secondary effects of Russia’s exceedingly poor military performance in Ukraine over the past ten days, on top of its mediocre performance at best up to that point, is rippling out from Kharkiv and Kherson and remaking Russia’s near abroad and sphere of influence. Almost all of Putin’s geo-strategy, or, perhaps, geo-tactics might be better, is to preserve the Russian near abroad and sphere of influence from any further degradation than occurred as a result of the fall of the Soviet Union while at the same time reestablishing it and, if possible, expanding it. The failures in Ukraine – of the Russian military, of the theater strategy and campaign plan, of Russian tactics, techniques, and procedures, or Russian military equipment, and of Putin’s actual leadership in the face of reality he is trying to ignore and remake in a preferred narrative – are emboldened and endangering the former Soviet states that have long been in Russia’s orbit.
These border dust ups between Kyrgystan and Tajikistan happen semi-frequently, but the erosion of Russian power, across all elements of national power – Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Legal (DIMEFIL) – has likely emboldened both sides. Specifically, whichever can gain an advantage may be able to hold it because Moscow isn’t going to be able to intervene even if it wants too. This is the same dynamic that led Azerbaijan to decide to strike Armenia at the beginning of the week. Putin had been guaranteeing Armenia’s security since the Azerbaijanis, with Erdogan’s assistance (the bayraktar’s debut), beat the Armenians up pretty badly a couple of years ago. This included retaking a lot of the disputed territory in the Artsakh (the Armenian name) or Nagorno-Karabakh (the Azerbaijani name). This is why Armenia was the only state to vote no with Russia when the UN General Assembly brought a resolution condemning Russia for the re-invasion of Ukraine to a vote back in March. It was pure realpolitik. For the Armenians, Putin was, at the time, the guarantor that the Azerbaijanis, working on their own historic grievances and also as Erdogan’s catspaw to help him establish a Turkic hegemony in the trans-Caucasus, Asia Minor, the Levant, and Central Asia, wouldn’t attack them. They couldn’t afford to upset him and risk the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers in the disputed territories, as well as Putin’s assurance that the Russian military would intervene if Azerbaijan attacked again.
Putin is clearly no longer able to extend his military power the way everyone believed he could back last February. As a result, a lot of places within Russia’s near abroad and sphere of influence that seemed comparably stable are quickly becoming unstable. In the case of the Armenians they made a hard choice while in a hard place based solely on self interest – national survival – that, at the time, was understandable if regrettable. Now they are really stuck between a rock and that hard place. Given most of our sympathies for the Ukrainians, I expect many here will have little sympathy and empathy for them, but, at least for me, given the history of Armenia and the Armenians, I both sympathize and empathize with their plight.
I would, however, expect more instability on the edges of the Russian sphere of influence and near abroad. I think we’re also likely to see instability on the edges of the Russian Federation too. But that is likely to be a slow build. Whatever is going on will run beneath the surface out of sight until it suddenly boils over and then it’ll be very visible and things will go from seeming to be slow and steady to fast and chaotic.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians!
In Kharkiv region, investigative actions are ongoing in the areas that were liberated from the Russian occupation.
All the crimes of the Ruscists are being recorded, evidence of their guilt is being collected.
Torture chambers where civilians of occupied cities and towns were abused, premises where people were kept – even foreigners – were found. In particular, seven citizens of the Republic of Sri Lanka, students of the Kupyansk Medical College. Back in March, they were captured by Russian soldiers and subsequently kept these people in the basement. Only now, after the liberation of Kharkiv region, these people were saved, they are provided with proper medical care.
Exhumation of bodies continues at a mass burial site near Izium. As of now, more than 440 graves have been found. It is too early to say about the number of people buried there, investigations are ongoing.
There is already clear evidence of torture, humiliating treatment of people… Moreover, there is evidence that Russian soldiers, whose positions were not far from this place, shot at the buried just for fun.
The world must react to all this. Russia has repeated in Izium what it did in Bucha. And now we have just begun to learn the full truth about what was happening in Kharkiv region at that time.
It is good that the UN units are already preparing a group of employees who will visit this place near Izium, who will see and be able to report to everyone in the UN system about what the Russian terrorists did.
We will ensure full access of journalists to the liberated territory and all places of human abuse. We will provide access to tell the world that ruscism must be condemned.
I thank all our partners, all leaders and just our ordinary people who help fight for justice. Fight for the official recognition of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, for the strengthening of sanctions against Russia for this terror.
I held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters today. As always, key leaders of the defense and security sector, key representatives of the central government, who ensure the implementation of the defense plan, attended it. Commanders of operative forces reported on the situation on the front line. In addition to completely understandable issues and solutions, the topic of advanced weapons, which will significantly strengthen our army, was also touched upon.
I spoke today with the President of Finland. I thanked us for the support we have already received and outlined the additional needs we have. An important topic of conversation was the European policy regarding visas for citizens of the terrorist state. I believe that for every country that shares a common border with Russia, the visa issue is vital and should be resolved in favor of a complete restriction of access for Russian citizens.
I also spoke today with representatives of the Nike company. I thanked them for the decision to leave the Russian market. The right decision. This is an example of how business can play a significant role in protecting humanity and freedom. If a state chooses the path of terror, it is the duty of every self-respecting company to distance itself from such a state.
Today, a meeting of the group led by Andriy Yermak working on Ukraine’s accession to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development took place in the Office, a meeting with the G7 ambassadors and other partner states. This is an extremely important direction, which is important both in the context of European integration and in the context of the internal transformation of our state. During the meeting, the diplomats were given the details of our initiative to create an ad hoc international tribunal to punish Russia for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. I’m thankful to the G7 representatives and other partner countries for their willingness to support Ukraine!
And one more thing. This Saturday we celebrate Rescuer’s Day – a professional holiday of those who dedicated their lives to saving others. And it is also the day of those who, under certain circumstances and thanks to their decency and courage, became a rescuer by helping someone else. Today, I honored such people with state awards. And, of course, tomorrow in the evening address I will say more about it. But I want right now, without waiting for tomorrow evening, to congratulate everyone who performs this noble work, who saves people. I want to thank you for the thousands of saved lives, for the security you are returning to us, all Ukrainians.
Eternal glory to all who care about people! Please always help each other, always keep unity in everything. We must stick together, all Ukrainians, and that’s how we will win.
Glory to Ukraine!
Brig.Gen Ryder, the DOD Spokesperson, gave an on the record briefing this afternoon. Here’s the briefing and the relevant Q&A:
BRIGADIER GENERAL PATRICK RYDER: All right. Thank you for your patience. Well, good afternoon, everyone. I have a fair amount to pass along to you before we kick things off, so thank you in advance for your patience here.
First of all, as you’re aware, DOD announced last evening the 21st presidential drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $600 million to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. Notable capabilities include additional HIMARS ammunition, precision-guided 155 millimeter artillery rounds, counter-unmanned aerial systems, mine-clearing equipment, night vision devices, and cold weather gear for use as winter approaches.
In total, the United States has committed approximately $15.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24th and approximately $17.9 billion since 2014.
To meet Ukraine’s evolving battlefield requirements, we’ll continue to work closely with our allies and partners around the world to support Ukraine as they defend their country against Russian occupation, and on that note, I’d flag that, in coordination with NATO, the U.S. will host a special session under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group with senior national armaments directors on September 28th in Brussels. They’ll discuss how our mutual defense industrial bases can best equip Ukraine’s future forces with the capabilities that they need to defend their country.
I know that Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, Dr. LaPlante, touched on this a bit during his briefing last week but we’ll be sure to keep you updated as we have more information to provide on this important international effort.
Separate but related, earlier this week, I was asked about the status of NASAMS deliveries to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI. Since then, I’ve received an update that I wanted to pass along. We’re tracking that two NASAMS are expected to be delivered within the next two months or so. These defensive systems will further contribute to protecting Ukrainians from enemy air threats, to include aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles.
Before I conclude and take your questions, I do have a few other items to provide.
Today, the U.S. and Republic of Korea are conducting the bilateral Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meeting at the State Department. The DOD delegation is led by Dr. Colin Kahl, the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and this is the first EDSCG meeting since 2018. The consultation group provides an opportunity for our two governments to discuss peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific.
Also this morning, Secretary Austin hosted our annual POW/MIA Recognition Ceremony in the Pentagon Hall of Heroes. More than 80,000 American service personnel are missing from previous conflicts and 38,000 are estimated to be recoverable.
The Defense POW/MIA Agency remains relentless in its mission to provide the fullest possible accounting to their families and the nation until they can be brought home. It is important to Secretary Austin that we took the time today to recognize and honor the sacrifices of our service members and their families.
I also want to highlight that this month is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Secretary Austin and Veteran Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough met virtually yesterday with military and veteran service organizations to reaffirm both departments’ commitment to providing mental health and other support resources to our service members and their families.
As Secretary Austin has said many times, mental health is health and we always encourage service members and veterans to reach out for help and seek the care they need. Confidential support is available 24/7 by dialing 988 and pressing 1 or visiting veteranscrisisline.net.
And finally, as we head into the weekend, we want to wish the U.S. Air Force and the Department of the Air Force a Happy Birthday as the service celebrates its 75th anniversary on Sunday. For 75 years, American airmen have excelled as they execute the U.S. Air Force mission to fly, fight, and win and deliver airpower anytime, anywhere in defense of our nation.
And with that, I am happy to take your questions. We’ll start with A.P.
Q: Hi,and good afternoon.
GEN. RYDER: Hey.
Q: I’m Nomaan Merchant with the A.P. Let me ask you two questions, if you don’t mind, the first being about some of the reports of a mass grave site at Izyum. President Zelenskyy said to day that there were — there was evidence that people had been tortured, shot or killed by shelling at — and buried at Izyum. Can the Pentagon address some of those allegations, and particularly whether Russian forces were involved in wartime atrocities or setting up this mass gravesite at Izyum that’s been discovered?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah. Thanks for the question. So we’ve seen the reports and certainly heard the comments by President Zelenskyy on this issue. We are tracking that the U.N. intends to send a team to investigate, so I don’t have any specific information to provide other than these kinds of reports are indicative of the suffering that we’ve seen civilians experience and people in Ukraine experience since Russia’s invasion.
GEN. RYDER: Lara?
Q: Yeah, thank you. I just have a follow-up on the Claymore mines in — in this latest package. I — I know that — that President Biden banned most landmine use except for in Korea, I believe. So can you just explain why those Claymore mines are — are in there, and whether that falls under the policy?
GEN. RYDER: We’ll check on the policy, but obviously, all of this equipment is intended to assist the Ukrainians in their offensive operations against Russia and to help them take back their territory.
Yes, sir?
Q: General, thank you. My audience is in Ukraine, and to — you may imagine how sensitive they are to any articles or rumors that U.S. possibly might not provide enough military equipment. And it has an article published yesterday in Foreign Affairs, and you know, shared by the propaganda that telling people — I’m quoting, “U.S. officials warned that extraordinary levels of military support the United States has sent to Ukraine over the past six months will be impossible to sustain as U.S. military stocks begin to dwindle.” And they’re quoting the former U.S. ambassador to NATO. Can you comment on this?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. I think all along, we’ve highlighted the fact that this is an international effort. There’s not any one country, to include the U.S., that’s supporting Ukraine. And so as evidenced by things like the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that was held recently at Ramstein and future opportunities, we’ll continue to examine what type of capabilities we can mutually provide to Ukraine, while at the same time for our own U.S. military, we have systems in place and processes in place that take a very close look at, as we draw down our own stocks, what do we need to do to ensure that we continue to replenish? The bottom line is that U.S. readiness, U.S. military readiness is not in jeopardy or close to being in jeopardy, and we’re confident that we can continue to support Ukraine in their fight going ahead. Thank you.
Q: Hey, thanks, Pat. A couple of questions, the first one a — a two-parter.
Can you confirm the Ukrainian Army’s claim that they’ve fully captured Kupiansk? And then give us a little bit of a operational update.
And then the second question is do you — does the Pentagon assess there’s any connection between the Russia struggles in Ukraine and then the fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and now Tajikistan and Kurdistan? Thanks.
GEN. RYDER: Okay, thanks. I think the first part of your question was you were asking about Kupiansk, is that correct?
Q: That is correct. The Ukrainian Army says that they’ve fully captured that. And just give us a operational update if you could.
GEN. RYDER: Okay. Well, you know, at the end of the day, in terms of, you know, granular details, Howard, I’d say we’ll let the Ukrainians talk to the specifics of their operation. Generally speaking, you know, as I mentioned earlier, we have seen them make some advancements in the north, in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainians continue to conduct their counter-offensive operations, which are, again, primarily up in the north, in Kharkiv, and then in the south, in the Kherson region.
In the north, what we assess is that the Ukrainians are consolidating their gains after taking back significant territory and that the Russians are attempting to shore up their defensive lines after having been pushed back.
In the south, the Ukrainians continue to make what we would assess is deliberate, calculated forward movements as the Russians continue to try to hold that line.
As always, our focus continues to remain on providing them the support that they need in their fight, as evidenced by our announcement last night on the PDA.
In terms of Armenia, you know, we are aware of the reports. My understanding, just based on press reports, is that there is a truce. Certainly, we would echo what the State Department has said, is that there is no military solution to conflict and we would call for an immediate and full cessation of hostilities.
Okay, let me go to Matt White from Coffee or Die.
Q: Yes, thank you for the briefing, sir.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense — can you hear me? Can you hear me?
GEN. RYDER: I can hear you.
Q: Great. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense put out a release today describing that they have reports of Russian soldiers retreating across the Dnipro River using stolen motorboats from residents locally. I’m wondering if you can — if you have any reports of that? And also, a little bit beyond that, if there are other reports that you’re getting that might speak to sort of if the retreat in that area has been particularly disordered?
Thank you.
GEN. RYDER: Sure. I don’t have any comments or information to provide on that level of detail. Again, I’d refer you to the Ukrainians to get those kinds of updates.
In terms of characterizing the Russian retreat, again beyond what we’ve already talked about in terms of as the Ukrainians conducted their counteroffensive in the north in the Kharkiv region, as mentioned we saw the Russians fleeing over the border in some locations, and of course the reports of low morale, logistics issues, sustainment challenges — beyond that, I don’t have any other details to provide.
Okay, I can take one or two more.
Sure.
Q: On the topic of POW/MIA Day, there are at least two Americans that are being held captive in Ukraine at the moment, I think a few others have gone missing. Do you have any updates on the Americans that are currently being held captive by Russian separatist forces?
GEN. RYDER: I do not have any updates. Thank you.
Q: Is there any new message to the veterans that are currently fighting in the country?
GEN. RYDER: To U.S. veterans fighting in the country? I don’t have a message to pass along. Thank you.
Okay, I’m sorry. Last question.
Q: Back to Ukraine, a senior State Department official said yesterday — or expected yesterday heavy fighting in Ukraine during the fall as both sides try to reposition themselves in preparation for the winter. Also, he said despite progress made by the Ukrainians recently, the war is far from its end. Do you share — do you agree with this assessment?
GEN. RYDER: So I’m, again, not going to try to speculate and put a timeline on this conflict, other than to say again we believe that this will continue to be a tough fight. You know, certainly, we’ve seen the Ukrainians have some success and we’ll continue — you know, our focus will continue to be on supporting them in their fight.
But we do anticipate that this will continue to be a very tough fight and the only thing that could shorten it would be is if the Russians decided to do the right thing and withdraw their occupying forces from Ukraine.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, I appreciate it.
Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments for Kherson and Izium:
KHERSON/2355 UTC 16 SEP/ With the recent destruction of three Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and the interdiction of an Su-24 fighter bomber, UKR has demonstrated the lethality of its resurgent air defense network.This has allowed UKR to increase close air support sorties. pic.twitter.com/kZ3GQOfnEg
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 16, 2022
IZIUM / 0100 UTC 17 SEP/ As reported earlier, UKR forces have consolidated control of the east bank of the Oskil River, and have interdicted logistics on the P-66 HWY. After a series of precipitous retreats, elements of the RU army have re-occupied the city of Savatove. pic.twitter.com/xomi5gQ0g3
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 17, 2022
Ukrainian partisans went hunting this morning!
Unconfirmed reports by Russians of several important occupational "officials" wounded or killed as a result of strikes in Kherson and Luhansk, including the "General Prosecutor of Luhansk" being "wounded".
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 16, 2022
Izium:
Russian liberation. Photo by the legendary Evgeny Maloletka of the AP pic.twitter.com/lbVrRFkTz0
— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) September 16, 2022
Pope Francis has declared Ukraine’s defense of Russia’s re-invasion a just war!
ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE, Sept 15 (Reuters) – Pope Francis on Thursday said it was morally legitimate for nations to supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian aggression.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) September 15, 2022
The Congressional Research Service has released a new report on the Ukrainian-Russian war:
New updated Congressional Research Service report on Russia’s War in Ukraine: Military and Intelligence Aspects https://t.co/RXVJJH8uxC
— Andrew S. Bowen (@Andrew_S_Bowen) September 15, 2022
Also updated analysis of the performance of the 🇺🇦 military, 🇷🇺 war crimes, and new outlook given 🇺🇦 recent battlefield successes.
— Andrew S. Bowen (@Andrew_S_Bowen) September 15, 2022
And Dossier, via Christo Grozev, has a new report out indicating that the Russian GRU have placed a controlled foreign asset in the presidency of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Which is ungood!
Here is Dossier's extremely troubling investigation (in Russian, google translate quite usable). We have not verified the hacked/leaked documents Dossier obtained, however the open source part of the evidence matches the reporting:https://t.co/DNvCQrHrKV
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 16, 2022
A 92-year-old Paraskovia who lives in the frontline area treats her guests, humanitarian volunteers, to apples. She survived two dictators, Stalin and Hitler. We wish her to survive ****n.
📷@WCKitchen pic.twitter.com/ZJtwtrCk0i— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 15, 2022
Boys will be boys pic.twitter.com/yDd0TQGN6x
— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) September 16, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
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Always be selling!
Open thread!
Peale
Yeah. The Armenian situation is going to be difficult. That is probably because I know more Armenian-Americans than Azeri-Americans, so of course, I want to take sides. Not much for the US to do even if it wants to. Aid to Armenia is going to have to go through Georgia (which is likely to siphon off its share) since Turkey isn’t going to let that pass through. Nor is it going to go through Iran. Little would be gained by taking a side in Kyrgystan vs Tajikistan, though.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I know these things take time and it isn’t like we can FedEx it or something, but this still made me wince. Two months feels like forever to me – I can only begin to imagine what it feels like to Ukrainians.
I was reading in the NYT earlier about Modi telling putin “hey ur war sux” and putin being like “LOL I didn’t do shit, it’s the big mean Ukrainians causing all the ruckus, I’d totally meet with them if they want to” and I wanted a meteor to hit him square in the face. But as you talk about putin’s at least slightly waning influence, and seeing Modi and Xi sort of kind of gently poke him in the eye…I just wonder if any of it matters? I know he gets off on thinking of himself as the most powerful manly man and all that, but is there any level of pushback from his allies or minions that would ever get that man to backpedal even an inch? It does not seem so to me.
“Aboard the Papal Plane” sounds like the next Dan Brown novel.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Oh god, this is just horrible
Thank you for your reporting, Adam. It’s an important service
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Thank you, Adam.
Good on Nike for leaving the market, though it seems to have taken them some time to make the decision. I hadn’t seen news of that. Every little bit chips away at the Russian economy. But instability at the borders is going to be greater pressure on Putin, whose resources and support are thinning rapidly. A wider conflict, though, is not something any of us want or need. I’m sure these developments are being watched carefully.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I saw one report that the Russians booby trapped some of the burials. Waiting to see more confirmation before including it in an actual update.
Scott
But isn’t Pelosi planning to go on a snap visit to Armenia? Good Grief, that makes my head hurt.
Mathguy
I read the title of the post and thought “Why is he reusing the title? Then…
Kyrgystan and Tajikistan
Oh.
StringOnAStick
@Adam L Silverman: There was a reunion video going around yesterday of a soldier liberating his mother’s village. The translation of what they were saying to each other included the mother saying the Russians had booby trapped their house. Booby trapping graves is a while new level of inhumanity; trying to cover their bloody tracks.
Adam L Silverman
@Scott: She is, which is a good thing
Anonymous At Work
Not to cast doubt from my armchair on the British MOD but isn’t the real lack of manpower in the Russian military turning out to be NCOs? And what impact will it have when you have under-trained JCOs commanding undertrained violet prisoners? Are we in for a winter repeat of The Battle of Stalingrad: Ukraine’s supply of bullets vs. Russia’s supply of bodies?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Absolutely should be verified, first. Though, I think it’s believable given everything else we know about Russian actions in this war. This is the kind of depraved shit that the Nazis or Pol Pot would’ve done.
Just for some morbid clarification, were they using the buried as target practice? I’m confused on the wording
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: JFC. That is chillingly vile.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’m not gonna spell it out, but … my mind immediately went to the graveyard scene in A Fistful of Dollars.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Both.
Adam L Silverman
@StringOnAStick: I saw that video.
Dangerman
Thanks Adam. Regular reader, infrequent commenter (on this topic, I mean). Is there a “Pulitzer” for blogging series?
i recall being amazed that the USSR dissolved as peacefully as it did. Not sure who all gets the credit. Maybe a lot of Folks. Certainly not my area of expertise (example: I recall thinking Ukraine giving up the Nukes was a good idea … oops).
Torrey
Since I’m getting in on the comments early enough to reach the people I want to reach, I’m seizing this opportunity to thank Adam for these carefully curated and informative updates. Your hard work and expertise are much appreciated.
And thanks also to Carlo Graziani, YY_Sima Qian, Gin & Tonic, and all the others who have knowledge and expertise and share it in these threads. This is really a vital source of information.
And on the general topic of Ukraine, this United24 video is interesting and, as we have come to expect from the Ukrainian PR people, clever. I don’t think I knew any of this, although the Cossack hetman with the constitution sounds vaguely familiar.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Both, what?
Mallard Filmore
A YouTube video on the conflict:
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbYhm6QBjlY
title: —> Now Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan clash, Armenia ceasfire and “Russia’s NATO” CSTO ist basically dead.<—
Gives some explanation on the activities in both conflicts, with maps.
Fake Irishman
@Dangerman:
Gorbachev deserves considerable credit for realizing it was a lost cause and ultimately letting the Baltic go without too much bloodshed. On the US side, Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar did a lot of yeoman’s work to secure the ussr’s loose nuclear material and keep their scientists on the right side of the fence (eg, convincing Bush I and Congress to find some joint US-ex USSR research projects. The book “the twilight of the bombs” by Richard Rhodes is a good first look at some of this history.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There are reports that the Russians shot at the Ukrainian dead in Izium and reports that they booby trapped the burials with IEDs.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I saw a tweet that commented on a short film clip taken at Balakliya (sp?) where many residents are mobbing the back of a truck delivering what appear to be food (or aid) parcels. A lot of people. One woman is filmed walking away to a short wall where she deposits her parcel, and then starts sobbing. It’s heart-rending.
And then the commenter notes that there are few young people, no children, most chillingly, no young men at all. Ugh.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Oh…gotcha
Carlo Graziani
If Pfarrer’s map of the situation around Izyum is right, the Ukrainian army forces in the Donbas that had been holding back the Russian push westward since the battle of Sieverodonetsk have joined the offensive — they would be that southernmost arrow going back into Sieverodonetsk.
But at the same time, all the reporting about Russians running away have come from the Kharkhiv Oblast battlefield, further north, not from Donetsk Oblast. It would make sense that these Russians would also want to make themselves scarce, since the Ukrainians just cut them off from their supply lines. But you would think that “Russians withdraw from Donetsk province” would be a moderately important news story.
So I don’t know what to believe. Is the Russian army in Donetsk province still a going concern?
Anoniminous
@Anonymous At Work:
The short answer: No and No
The Long Answer: Stalingrad Trilogy (in five volumes) by Glantz and House.
One big difference is the Russians don’t have the manpower, equipment, supplies, or Zukhov to pull-off another Operation Uranus.
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
The Donetsk Oblast is still occupied by Russia.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
That does sound heart-rending : (
Where did the children and younger people go? Could they have been among those basically kidnapped to Russia? And perhaps the young men were conscripted/or killed?
I remember just before the invasion started, Putin saying in an address for the Ukrainians to “put down their arms and come home.”
Just look at what the Russian occupation forces have done, hell even to the separatist regions. “One people indeed.” I hope Putin lives to choke on those words
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think the fear is that the young men were killed, the young women raped and then killed, and the children kidnapped to Russia. So yeah, chilling.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: The Russian army, like it’s Soviet predecessor, has never relied on an NCO corps. So in that sense it has a “shortage”, but that’s not what they’re panicking about. They designed their army for short, quick, highly-asymmetric conflicts against opponents easily overmatched in a limited-duration war. In the current war, that army is well past its expiration date. Which is why they are now trying to accomplish by improvisation the kind of force generation that ordinarily requires a decade of planning and budgeting to accomplish.
The darkly comedic aspect of this farcical scramble is compounded by the fact that as battlefield disasters go, the other shoe has yet to drop. The Russians have an army of 20,000 men trapped west of the Dnipro at Kherson, with all the bridges at their back dropped by HIMARS strikes, meagerly supplied over pontoon bridges now also regularly attacked by artillery. According to that DOD briefing, some of those soldiers are stealing motorboats to get away, but it’s likely that most of them will be dead or POWs by some time in October. That army simply isn’t going back. So Russian manpower issues are going to get worse. Or perhaps a better way to state it is that they already are worse, but the Russians just haven’t faced reality yet.
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: Right. So, are the Russians in Donetsk province retreating? Did they just lose everything they gained since the battle for Lysychansk heights in a week?
Maybe I’m reading too much into that arrow — sometimes I think Pfarrer is a little free with his graphics. But it does look as if it is meant to bear information.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
That’s a very chilling likelihood
Ruckus
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
I certainly do not know vlad. Nor anyone at that high a level.
But he’s human, or so I’ve been told. Anyone with an ego as big as his and as “successful” as he has been at being a complete douchebag, is going to have to be pushed out with a rather large shove, and likely some rather tough love. IOW he won’t go easy, although he might just go rather rapidly. In theory Russia is now not a dictatorship. In theory. It practice it of course is. But the wheels are coming off, the roof is leaking, the bank is thinking of closing his account and giving the money to someone else, anyone else. Russia, and all it’s “children” are going to have to figure out how to get along, work together or apart, whichever comes first. I’m not sure who among everyone other than vlad knows this or has ever thought about it, but I’d bet the list has grown just a bit over the last few days. vlad likely doesn’t think this way at all, it’s rather likely he’s going to have to be shown the door, most likely carried out after ample opportunity for him to attempt breathing again. And because he won’t go easy, it is going to be a rather unpleasant picture for way too many people, around the world. Russia could be better in so many ways, but they have to want to be, to work at it, to not just move in a new “vlad.” I hope they figure this out and soon.
Sebastian
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Funny you mention that.
At the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Putin has been a bit of a clown.
He was publicly humiliated twice. First by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and then again by President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov.
Ruckus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
“This is the kind of depraved shit that the Nazis or Pol Pot would’ve done.”
What makes you think Russia is, at least on the leadership level, any different?
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you for the yeoman’s work, Adam.
Saw a video from a UAF Medic who showed a wounded Russian who was left behind by his comrades. I also saw a bunch of tweets about Russians shooting their own wounded because they’d slow them down on their retreat.
Origuy
I haven’t heard much about this; it could be natural causes, but still…
Note that Komsomolskaya Pravda is descended from the house organ of the Komsomol, the Communist Youth organization. It’s different from the Pravda we’re more familiar with.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
From what I have read so far, the RU Forces in the Donbas, are intact origional forces that havn’t seen much combat, and are intact, and “well”.
Sebastian
@Jay:
Saw a video of that Donbas guy, it was broadcasted and he made sure to say “don’t panic”. Twice haha
Saw videos of big traffic jams in Donbas. Outbound.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Well put. These 20,000 are also pretty much the very last bit of trained and experienced soldiers Russia has.
Russia won’t have an army anymore after that.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: UA will need every one of those POWs, to ransom their people who’ve been kidnapped to Russia. Every. One.
wj
How we will know that the Russian Army has imploded beyond repair (at least, not for a decade or more of repair efforts)? Easy. When the Republic of Georgia boots the Russians out of the parts of their country that have been occupied since 2008. The Georgians don’t have the size or resources of Ukraine. But they have to be watching for their chance to take down a much reduced Russian military.
Geminid
There are as of yet no reports of Speaker Pelosi arriving in Armenia. She told reporters in Berlin that she would not give her schedule for security reasons. Fellow Bay area Congresswoman Jackie Spiers will accompanythe Speaker. Like many Californians, Ms. Spiers is of Armenian descent.
A ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan went into effect 8pm Wednesday, and reports are that it is holding.
Geminid
@Peale: Actually, Iran has been generally supportive of Armenia and has voiced its particular concern about any Azerbaijani advances along the Iranian-Armenian border. I have not read of Iran supplying weapons to Armenia but it has a sizable arms industry and already sends a lot of arms to allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. They are probably ready to pick up any Russian slack in arms supplies if Armenia became hard pressed.
Armenian newspapers talk a lot about Iran’s diplomatic support, also about the two nations’ economic ties. A story from a week ago reported on an automobile factory Iran says it will build in Armenia.
germy shoemangler
I saw a disturbing video a few months ago. Several Azerbaijani soldiers came upon an elderly Armenian man and proceeded to slit his throat. The video was eventually taken down and replaced with one where the old man’s face is blurred to obscure the ugly details of the atrocity.
lowtechcyclist
@Anoniminous:
Another of those increasingly inaccurately named trilogies? ;-)
lowtechcyclist
@Sebastian:
Ford: Don’t panic!
Arthur: I’m not panicking!
Ford: Yes, you are.
Arthur: All right, I’m panicking. What else is there to do?
Geminid
@Geminid: The Iran-Armenia border is only 27 miles in extent.it runs through a mountain region along the Arras River, and is the southern edge of an Armenian corridor flanked by Azerbaijan proper on the east and its affiliated Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on the west. Nakhchivan, with a territory of 2200 sq. mi. and a population a little under half a million, connects with Turkiye to its west. If Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a full scale war the the Armenian corridor to Iran would be an obvious target for Azerbaijan. Capturing it would create a land bridge to its ally Turkiye, through Nakhchivan. Iran has signalled that it would not allow this, but none of the other regional powers seem to want a full scale war either.
Iran is not very eager for a conflict with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani-Iranians are Iran’s largest ethnic minority, estimated to be at least 15% of the population. They are well integrated into post-Revolution Iran; in fact Supreme Leader Khameini is Azeri-Iranian. There is no apparent Azeri separatist dynamic, but Iran has a lot of irons in foreign fires already and does not need conflict on its northern borders that could foster Azeri resentment. They do not want to see an ascendant Azerbaijan, either, so they are giving Armenia diplomatic and material support and hoping the conflict is contained and does not escalate.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Well, this should be an interesting independent test of Pfarrer’s credibility then. Whatever UA forces are represented by his southernmost arrow entering Sieveodonetsk, they would necessarily be in comtact with the Russian army’s Donetsk grouping to get to the arrow’s tip. So either Pfarrer has excellelent intel sources and is less reticent to use them in the east than in the south, or he’s gotten a bit enthusiastic about reporting RUMINT.
Tony G
Here’s “Medea” Benjamin urging Ukraine to surrender territory to the Russian invaders and war criminals, for the sake of “peace”. Like her ally in this effort, Tucker Carlson, her timing is impeccable. This is what passes for “the left” these days in the United States … https://www.salon.com/2022/09/07/in-ukraine-rages-on-with-no-end-in-sight–peace-talks-are-essential/
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Tony G: Subtitle: “The U.S. and Britain sabotaged peace talks in favor of grinding, endless war. Ukraine’s people are paying the price”
Oh go absolutely fuck yourself with rusty farm implements, you monstrous shithead.
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani: For what it’s worth, I actually believe Pfarrer is very likely correct. The UA army that’s been holding back the Russians in the Donbas has been executing a series of orderly fighting retreats sice May, with never a single rout, which is not what you would expect from a smaller, weaker army being overwhelmed by a more powerful one (which I felt all along was suspicious, and wrote as much).
Now that those Russians have been cut off from their supply train, and before they can get reconnected to another one, is obviously the time for that UA force to shove them back to Sieverodonetsk. So the reporting lag may just be a case of the media getting sleepy.
Anonymous At Work
@Anoniminous: I didn’t mean literally like Stalingrad, and the disruption of supply and reinforcement lines had more to do with the Soviet’s victory there.
What I am worried about is Russia changing tactics from casual brutality in its artillery use (since it is losing its bombers too quickly with no replacements on the way) to a very purposeful and very bloody brutality. “War crimes” as a military tactic isn’t something new but it is something I am worried about.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: All true, and the motorboat rumor was an unconfirmed rumor that I’d want to see verified…and then printed on leaflets and dropped over the Russian forces. My question is more: What will these change mean come November onward as unprepared JCOs are expected to lead convicted violent thugs without NCOs to stabilize the situation? Will we see a lot of JCOs being shot in the back while leading a charge? JCOs out of observation range being “pinned down” by phantom fire until the convicts’ “6 months [yeah right]” time served is up?
I think this is worth gaming out a little because, to a weaker degree, is what necessitated Russian field officers leading from the front in the aftermath of the failed blitz attack AND what caused the Russian field officer corps to be badly depleted when Ukrainians could start targeting field officers leading from the front.
Tony G
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: A seventy-year-old woman using a fake name (“Medea”) is very cute. “Benjamin lives in Washington, DC and in San Francisco.”. Two homes in two of the most expense cities in the U.S. A working-class hero!
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
The arrow is meaningless. The current front line is the Oskil and Dnipro Rivers (more-or-less)
The Pale Scot
A truly great piece of work
Downfall: Tankie Edition.
cain
@Fake Irishman: I love Richard Lugar – he was the kind of Republican I think of back in the 80s. When I was a kid we sent letters to Lugar back in the 80s. We’d even get a response. He was pushed out of today’s GOP quite early. His replacement was not as good even if he was a Democrat.
Anoniminous
@Anonymous At Work:
The history of Ukraine over the past 100 years has been periods of oppression punctuated by mass murder, see: Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin. And given the news of mass graves, rape, and torture that history is repeating. The only thing the Russians haven’t yet done is extermination camps like Sobibor & etc .
Anoniminous
@Anoniminous:
Oops. It is being reported the Ukrainians are now east of the Oskil River. If they can hold the territory is means the Russian Forces behind the Dnipro have been flanked. It is almost impossible to say just how much of a Good Thing this is. The Ukrainians have an opportunity to encircle and crush … well … the Russian Army, frankly. They have jack diddlesquat outside Ukraine.
Anoniminous
In not so good news the Iranian drones the Russians bought are destroying Ukrainian artillery and armor. URK needs anti-drone capability ASAP
.
Pappenheimer
@Anoniminous: Babi Yar is near Kyiv.
Tony G
@Anoniminous: Bloodlands is a great, but depressing, book. Timothy Snyder has been really good in his analysis of the current slaughter in Ukraine.
Tony G
@The Pale Scot: Putin looks dapper with that mustache, but he seems a little stressed. Maybe he should take some time off. At least Ted Rall and Chris Hedges still have his back.
Tony G
@Tony G: I didn’t know about Roger Waters. I still like those old Pink Floyd records from my youth, but wow …
Ksmiami
@Anoniminous: at this point; after all of Russia’s war crimes, we need to send Ukraine every fucking thing. Bury Russia in the field now.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I think Tony G is just explaining the horrible tankie /surrender money position- I believe he supports Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
With Russian “liberals” like these, who needs conservatives? https://russia.postsen.com/trends/157327/Yabloko-%E2%80%93-army-%E2%80%93-Donbass-The-winding-path-of-a-Moscow-student-from-political-activism-to-death-in-the-war-with-Ukraine.html
It’s a long article, and somewhat poorly-translated. But reading it for the beliefs of the people around this guy who died, is telling. Really telling.
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami: One supposes that the “Medea, you git” was implied by Alison Rose.
Tony G
@Ksmiami: I understood (I think correctly) that the comment was directed at “Medea” (stage name), not at me. (I have a thick skin anyway, so no problem either way.) I thought that I supported “Code Pink” almost 20 years ago when they were protesting the invasion of Iraq, but their pro-Maduro and (de-facto) anti-Ukraine positions more recently show them in a different light. Life is not simple. Back when I was very young I used to hang out sometimes with self-styled “left wing activists”. Some were thoughtful and sincere, and others had an ideology of “look at my performance!”. “Code Pink” might be in the latter camp.
Chetan Murthy
@Tony G:
It’s a complex world, and there are more than one baddie in it. I used to read Naked Capitalism daily, but stopped during TFG’s Reign of Error when it became clear they were caping for Russian propagandists. I mean, I don’t think our country is perfect — far, far, far from it. But when our country does something decent, I don’t run from it because it’s our country doing it.
Medea is a moron.
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: Yup. I think of it as a form of “leftist” “American Exceptionalism”. “If the U.S. supports something, it has to be evil.”. Just as dumb as the right-wing version of “American Exceptionalism”.
Chetan Murthy
@Tony G: And these are people who live in America, too! Somehow, their “I’m trying to make America *better*” doesn’t seem to extend as far as “America did something right (for a change)”. It like they say about True Communism, that it’s never been tried, b/c all the places where they said they were trying (and failed) weren’t True Communism (yeah: “No true Scotsman” and all that). Except it’s backwards: “if it’s good, it can’t be American”.
Chetan Murthy
I guess we’re getting the confirmation we feared (about the Izyum killing-ground) from a France24 reporter
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: I’ve purposely removed text that might trigger people, b/c … *ugh*. But this reporter is giving us on-the-ground evidence of what we feared from Izyum: torture and murder. If you really want, click-thru and you can see the original tweet.
Yutsano
We’ll need independent confirmation of this, but if this is true, Russia is going to have a struggle holding the Donbas now.
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: Yup
phdesmond
@Torrey:
good video, very informative. once you start looking for famous Ukrainians, you find them in all the arts and occupations. here’s sculptor Alexander Archipenko and his Woman with Cat.
phdesmond
@phdesmond:
darn it, bad link. let’s try this: Woman and Cat, by Archipenko.