Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

I did not have this on my fuck 2024 bingo card.

We won’t go back.

This fight is for everything.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

In my day, never was longer.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

When we show up, we win.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 220: The Ukrainians Are Pushing East & South

War for Ukraine Day 220: The Ukrainians Are Pushing East & South

by | 120 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

It’s been a long week, so tonight’s post is going to be short.

But first a housekeeping note. Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement, begins Tuesday night at Sundown and runs through sundown on Wednesday night. Which, were I live, is after 8 PM. I was planning on taking both nights off and picking back up on Thursday evening. However, Carlo Graziano is working up a long enough guest post dealing with railroads in regard to the war for Ukraine that it needs to be broken into two parts. So those two posts are going to run on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings in my absence. Also, if you didn’t anticipate that Carlo would be writing about railroads, you need to pay better attention in the comments.

I’ll have the tweets with maps and lines and arrows and all that good stuff regarding what the Ukrainian Army is doing, or what informed observers and analysts think they are doing, in Kherson and parts east and south of Lyman after the jump, I just want to put a bit of spot analysis up top. I think what we’re seeing and going to continue to see is that the Ukrainian military, with their Special Operations Forces (SOF) working by, with, and through Ukrainian partisans in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine, are going to continue to push both east and south. I also think that they’re going to make a push west to east to get as close to the eastern border with Russia as they can get to it so they can also then drive south from that direction too. By doing this they’ll hit the Russians from the west and from the north at the same time, but also be able to get well behind the Russian lines along that easternmost point they can reach hitting them along three axes at once. All while SOF and partisan activity continues to disorient Russian forces. This would allow the Ukrainians to hit the Russians from three points: the west, the north, and the east. Finally, as soon as they can get far enough east and south to bring key Russian positions – such as in southeastern Kherson and Crimea – into HIMARS range, they’re going to open up and pound those locations just as they did for Kharkiv and they’ve been doing for Kherson. I’m very confident about the Ukrainians driving on two axes: from the west and now from the north. Whether they drive deep from west to east into Russian occupied Ukraine and then drive south is the one that makes logical sense to me, but I’m not sure if it’ll actually happen. Now we wait to see what actually does happen.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians! I wish you health!

Important events took place today in Turkey during a visit of the First Lady of Ukraine, the head of the President’s Office and other our representatives.

In the presence of Olena, the first corvette for our country from those, which will be built by the Turkish side, was launched. It is corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa.

Its building began in 2021 and will be completed in due time. I consider it very symbolic that it got this name. Despite a century of Russian false propaganda, historical truth and justice still prevail.

And there is no reason for our project to build a new fleet for Ukraine to fail. We will implement all the shaped plans. Our goal is to create a full-fledged base for ship maintenance and building in Ukraine.

Today, Andriy Yermak together with the Ukrainian delegation visited the facilities of the Baykar company, which produces, in particular, well-known Bayraktar UCAVs for us. On behalf of all Ukrainians, Andriy thanked the company’s managers and presented Selçuk Bayraktar, the chairman of the Baykar’s Board, with the Order of Merit, which was awarded to him on the anniversary of Ukraine’s Independence.

However, this meeting is not symbolic, it is quite practical. We are preparing to create a training center and a plant of the Baykar company in Ukraine, as well as joint manufacturing of aircraft engines. We will definitely implement these projects.

Ukraine has always been and will be one of the European centers of the military and aviation industry. And I am proud that I can say these words with absolute confidence and justification based on the results of the 221st day of Russia’s full-scale war against our state.

Something went wrong with someone…

And these meetings are not the end of our diplomatic activity today.

There was also a meeting of the first ladies of Ukraine and Turkey – and I thank President Erdoğan and his wife Emine for their continued support of our efforts to restore peace.

The First Lady of Ukraine and our delegation met with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew. Patriarch Bartholomew’s view on the war unleashed by Russia and his position on supporting our state are well known. And today they sounded again – very powerfully. I thank you for this, thank you for understanding the needs of our people.

The head of the Office held talks with the advisors to the President of the United States and the President of Turkey – Jake Sullivan and İbrahim Kalın. Very substantive negotiations. Absolutely in the interests of Ukraine. To strengthen our security.

Today, I held talks with President of France Emmanuel Macron. We discussed in detail the situation on the front line, our successes at the front. President Macron clearly supported our state and condemned the Russian pseudo-referendums and the attempt to annex our territory. The strengthening of sanctions against Russia was discussed.

We also discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the abduction of Director General of the ZNPP Ihor Murashov by the Russian occupiers. This is another manifestation of completely frank Russian terror, for which the terrorist state must bear an ever-increasing punishment.

Today, we have a powerful joint statement from the leaders of nine NATO states: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. They condemned Russia’s escalating moves and, most importantly, supported our aspiration to become a full member of NATO. We are moving in this direction. I am sure that we will implement this project.

At least twice a day – in the morning and in the evening – I receive reports from our military. This week, the largest part of the reports is the list of settlements liberated from the enemy as part of our defense operation. The story of the liberation of Lyman in Donetsk region has now become the most popular in the media. But the successes of our soldiers are not limited to Lyman.

This, you know, is the trend… Recently, someone somewhere held pseudo-referendums, and when the Ukrainian flag is returned, no one remembers the Russian farce with some pieces of paper and some annexations. Except, of course, law enforcement agencies of Ukraine. Because everyone who is involved in any elements of aggression against our state will be accountable for it.

And I thank everyone who brings these moments of victory closer, who returns the Ukrainian flag to its rightful place on Ukrainian land. I thank everyone: from generals to ordinary soldiers, from professional soldiers, intelligence and special forces to volunteers and everyone who helps defend our state.

And I would especially like to mention the 25th, 80th, 81st, and 95th brigades of amphibious assault troops for their successes in the east of our country; 14th and 92nd separate mechanized brigades; 1st, 4th and 17th tank brigades; Special Operations Forces; units of the National Guard and the National Police; SBU employees; and our intelligence – Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense. Thank you, warriors!

And one more thing.

Today, two professional holidays are celebrated in Ukraine – Teacher’s Day (Educator’s Day) and Territorial Defense Forces Day. Of course, a lot of kind and warm words have already been said to both educators and our Territorial Defense Forces men. But I want to add something.

Effective defense is impossible without good national education. And there will be no good national education without effective defense. Fortunately, we have both of these elements. Thanks to the professionalism and conscientiousness of Ukrainian educators, teachers, and professors, we have soldiers who know what humanity is and appreciate everything that Ukraine represents. And thanks to our brave soldiers, Ukrainian education on Ukrainian land will transmit our values to all generations of our people.

I thank every Ukrainian educator, teacher and lecturer! I thank each of our defenders!

I’m thankful to the soldiers of the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade for defending the city of Kharkiv and liberating the territory of Kharkiv region. To the soldiers of the 110th brigade, who bravely repulsed the invaders in the Zaporizhzhia direction. To the soldiers of the 129th brigade of my native Kryvy Rih, who distinguished themselves with good results and liberated, in particular, Arkhanhelske and Myroliubivka. To the soldiers of the 115th Territorial Defense Brigade, who made a significant contribution to the defense of Zhytomyr region. And also to the soldiers of the 117th brigade, who defend the north-eastern direction in Sumy region.

Ukraine will win!

Glory to Ukraine!

Fair winds and following seas!

For those wondering Ivan Mazepa was a leader, or hetman, of the Zaporizhzhian Host from 1687 to 1708.

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent updates regarding the situations in Kherson and Lyman:

 

Here’s something you don’t see everyday, the Commander-size tactical Rottweiler:

Your daily Patron!

And a new video, that seems to include a lot of the material from yesterday’s video, from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Остання частина! Нікого не забув?👅 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ original sound – Jonathan Martinez

The caption translates as:

The last part! Did you forget anyone?👅 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS #SlavaUkraini

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

120Comments

  2. 2.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Carlo’s front page posts should be as informative as his just another Juicer posts.  Looking forward to them.  Adam, enjoy your Yom Kippur, if that’s allowed while your atoning for something or other.  Probably a bacon cheeseburger.

  3. 3.

    oldster

    We’ll miss you on Tuesday and Wednesday, Adam, but we’re damned lucky to have Carlo G. to fill in and enlighten us.

    The news from Lyman kept me giddy all morning, and the news from Kherson made me rejoice in the evening. I know that there will be hard times again in the future, and the invader has not yet been expelled from the borders. But the progress is heartening. And whatever can be gained before winter comes will make the spring offensive easier.

  6. 6.

    CaseyL

    Thank you, Adam, and I hope you have an easy fast.  Carlo’s comments are things of beauty, so I look forward to his FP posts.

    Ukraine continues to astound.  I am very anxious for them to win – not only for the obvious reasons, but because I will be very interested to see what this amazing country can do when its energies, courage, honor, and intelligence do not need to be devoted 99% to a war of survival.

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    This, you know, is the trend… Recently, someone somewhere held pseudo-referendums, and when the Ukrainian flag is returned, no one remembers the Russian farce with some pieces of paper and some annexations. Except, of course, law enforcement agencies of Ukraine.

    I do love it when he gets a little salty about putin. I also like that, as far as I’ve seen recently, he never uses his name. Pretty soon instead of “someone” he’s gonna be like “Some dumb bitch in russia” and I will enjoy it.

    I also love the dancing video! This one made me giggle earlier too.

    I continue to be so impressed with the absolute ass-kicking Ukraine deals out on the daily to the invaders. I can imagine that once this war has ended with Ukraine’s complete victory, no one else is going to try messing with them for a long time.

    Thank you as always, Adam. If you fast, I hope it’s an easy one, and if like me you do not, I wish you a meaningful holiday of reflection.

  9. 9.

    zhena gogolia

    It’s kind of interesting that the Russian imperial stereotype of Ukrainians is that they are “sly.” I guess so. Slyer than you.

  11. 11.

    Anonymous At Work

    Next direction, I think, will have 2 plans based on Russian recruit reactions.  If the new recruits, especially if Putin does rush them to the front, are surrendering quickly or have a net negative effectiveness (i.e. drag on resources, movement and morale more than a scarecrow would offer), then west-to-east, and an attempt to envelop makes the most sense.  If Putin gets some basic indoctrination and training into the new troops and they turn out to at least as advertised (live body for mass charges and soaking up bullets), then I’d think you’d want to avoid opening a third front or enveloping troops willing to attempt a break-out.  Fewer fronts to encourage massing of troops and materiel for HIMARS.
    Ukraine can’t win an inch at a time but they can break the Russian forces into abandoning Putin’s war. Either way, this winter could get cold (early model of polar vortex suggests early and hard cold snaps in eastern Europe but it’s both weather predictions and large scale models, so needs lots of salt).

  16. 16.

    Andrya

    @Gin & Tonic:   There’s an Australian commenter on YouTube, who comments under the nym of Perun- whose commentary strikes me as spot-on.  (I’d be very grateful if any jackals with military knowledge checked him out and gave their opinion.)  He posted an absolutely deadly video on the effect of systematic corruption on an army:  link.   The winter uniforms were sold to some cold-winter country.

    Incidentally, “Perun” is the apparently the ancient Slavic god of weather, law, and war- as far as I can tell, more or less equivalent to the ancient Greek Zeus.

  18. 18.

    Another Scott

    @Anonymous At Work: Relatedly, …

    For those worried about VVP using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, an ISW thread from yesterday:

    4/ The Russian military in its current state cannot operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the equipment and has trained to use it in the past.

    5/ The rag-tag Russian ground forces currently fighting in Ukraine are insufficiently disciplined, motivated, and organized to function in a nuclear environment.

    6/ Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassible to the Russians, precluding further Russian advances.

    7/ This consideration is another factor reducing the likelihood of Russian battlefield nuclear weapons use in Ukraine as long as Russia remains focused on regaining the initiative and launching new offensives.

    […]

    It turns out that having a functional modern military is very difficult in a lying kleptocracy. Whodathunkit??

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Andrya

    I found it interesting, and important, that Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew met with the First Lady of Ukraine.  Take that, Mr. $39,000 watch and wholly owned property of vvp!

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    Thanks, Adam, @Villago Delenda Est: @oldster:  @Another Scott:  @CaseyL:, you are very kind. I hope it will be worthwhile and fun, and I look forward to lively discussions.

    I’m on deadline tonight — just found out 3 hours ago that I have a presentation tomorrow morning — so I won’t be contributing my usual noise to the thread this evening.  Just as a teaser, the title of the 2-part piece is “The War of the Trains”.

  22. 22.

    sdhays

    @Gin & Tonic: I still can’t wrap my mind around the idea that Russia, of all countries, is supposedly going to be unprepared (or, at least, underprepared) for war in winter.

    I mean, after all we’ve seen of utter shitshow Russia excels at being, I believe it. I just can’t quite comprehend, even with the stunning corruption and incompetence, how a Russian anything can be less than fully prepared for winter. It just boggles the mind.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    I can’t find the translated version I read yesterday, but here is a Christo Grozev tweet with the original

    For those with smartphones, the google translate app can provide a machine translation for printed text in images. This presumes two screens, e.g. a laptop (or tablet) and a smartphone. Just select camera, point at the screen adjusting camera position to frame the text, then wait a few seconds. (It cannot handle hand-written text.)

  24. 24.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Andrya: I’m actually curious where that would be: another nation needing that many cold weather combat kits? Peru vs. Argentina ONLY in the Andes?  Pakistan’s the only place with cold exposures, a military of sufficient size, and the need to purchase (rather than prove themselves by making their own).

  25. 25.

    CaseyL

    @Gin & Tonic: I saw that story, and simply assumed that either the gear was never manufactured (and the money was pocketed), or that they were sold under the table (and the money was pocketed).

  26. 26.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Another Scott:  Agreed.  Use even a small nuke (somehow) and recruits will be intimidated AND they lack the NBC kits to operate safely. Radiation sickness is a horrible way to die AND it makes troops about as combat ineffective as possible.

    A line that I really cherish, from Batman Begins:

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0372784/quotes/qt0470011

    Uniformed Policeman #1: The Batman’s in there. SWAT’s on the way, but if you want to go in now, I’ll be right behind you, sir.

  28. 28.

    BeautifulPlumage

    @Bill Arnold: I did not know this. Thanks!

    ETA and I wasn’t sure if the Google translation would have the same wording if I tried typing it in.

  29. 29.

    Another Scott

    @sdhays: Galeev made the point in one of his gigantic threads a few months ago that the military is not respected – at all – in VVP’s russia.

    Let’s see…

    Here’s the start of the thread:

    Why Russian army is so weak?

    When Russia invaded, experts thought it'd win in 24-72 hours. Two weeks later the war's still going. How come? On paper Russian superiority's overwhelming

    Although Russia projects warlike image, its military r weak and don't know how to fight wars🧵 pic.twitter.com/oUhfWHxf9e

    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 12, 2022

    […]

    Words cannot describe how low in dominance hierarchy the Russian army is. To get some idea, watch this video from a Russian official TV channel. An officer asks for a minute of silence for "our special operation boys dying there" and see what happens. Army has no respect at all pic.twitter.com/w5GsXSodJN

    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 12, 2022

    […]

    1.5 M uniforms disappearing is about the least surprising thing so far about this war.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  30. 30.

    Andrya

    @Anonymous At Work:  They don’t have to be sold as combat kits.  Assuming corruption, the sellers pay nothing for them, so they can be sold for cheap, and still make a profit.

    I do not, of course, have solid evidence that they were corruptly sold.  However, what we can say:

    The Russian government, including the military, is ridden with corruption.

    Enormous numbers of cold weather uniforms have mysteriously vanished.

    Draw your own conclusions.

    Update:  as Casey L says, it is possible the cold weather uniforms were paid for but never existed.

  31. 31.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Another Scott: I’ve kind of assumed that the use of nuclear weapons wouldn’t be to actually help the invasion, it’d just be to kill people. If he can’t have Ukraine, just destroy the place and make it uninhabitable.

  34. 34.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Andrya: Legit, missed the empty box angle.  And I figure the corruption. It’s the buyers that puzzle me.  Cuz “Russian military surplus” has that ring of “quality”, don’t it?

  35. 35.

    sdhays

    @Another Scott: I read that thread back when he posted it, although I haven’t been following him as much recently. It was very eye-opening how much the strength of the Russian military is used to bolster the self esteem of the empire while the actual people in the military are treated so poorly.

    But still, winter. In Russia. Really? No bullets, no tires, no fuel – I get that. Not enough winter gear? Just go home, guys.

  36. 36.

    Andrya

    @Anonymous At Work:  It may not have been labeled “russian army surplus”.  In fact, under the circumstances that strikes me as unlikely.  If one is poor enough, price becomes the only thing that matters.  (Carries me back to c. 1970 when I was a college student who was barely surviving money wise….)

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    @Matt McIrvin: He may still have that thought, but he really doesn’t have to cross that line, I don’t think.  Presumably he still has lots of conventional explosives that can flatten the cities.  :⁠-⁠(

    Nuclear weapons exist to threaten.  If one ends up using them, especially against a non-nuclear state, all bets are off. Especially if one’s opponents can operate in a nuclear battlefield but one can’t! (Their desire for a greater russia including Ukraine isn’t going away unless their defeat is undeniable.)

    Here’s hoping that we don’t find out!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Andrya: My father was regaling me about beer prices then as a reason for stupidity of his classmates in college.  It did have more than a little explanatory power.

  42. 42.

    NutmegAgain

    Thank you again for doing all this work Adam. It’s become an important part of my day!

    Not for nothing but you know all the old sayings about how you can judge peoples’ character by how they treat animals? Yeah, such a prime example here. Who even thinks of throwing a puppy in the cesspool? Degenerates. Orcs.

  44. 44.

    Xantar

    @Andrya: I’ve been watching Perun’s videos as well. I have absolutely no military expertise, so I can only say that he seems to be properly cautious and his presentation style is excellent despite the use of PowerPoint.

  45. 45.

    Poptartacus

    I hate Russians, a bunch of raping murdering thugs. I follow a few young Russian refusniks on YouTube. They’ve bailed out and left the country. They seem like good people. Empathetic good hearted. Gives me some hope for the future

  46. 46.

    Martin

    Glad to see Ukraine making headway in Kherson. Would be extremely helpful if they could establish the river as a natural defense soon.

    On other matters, I’m done with Florida. In fact, I might be done with the concept of federal disaster relief in general. Florida republicans demand it, and then refuse to vote for it. DeSantis only wants funds to go through a private fund operated by his wife, which couldn’t be a bigger corruption red flag if it was called the ‘DeSantis Corruption Fund’.

    We’re going to throw $100B at Florida, it’s (at best) all going to go into infrastructure that will be wiped out in the next hurricane because the state will never rebuild with buried power lines, mandate that roads be below home grade, buy out homeowners that are now in known sea level risk areas, or even such sensible things like mandate that reconstruction using federal funds must be built with adequate solar to power the home, which is fucking *free* to do. And that’s best case. Worst case, DeSantis will funnel half of it to GOP donors for rebuilding projects that will either never get done, or be done so poorly that they might as well never get done.

    Puerto Rico’s grid is down so that the private company the feds mandated they use can milk more disaster relief dollars.

    Here’s what I propose instead – federal matching dollars for remediative projects to reduce impacts from future disasters. The state makes up the rest through state tax revenue. States can’t keep cutting taxes and demanding that the feds make up for their lack of local spending. Federal dollars should no longer be used to restore the status quo – only for investments to reduce future outlays. We know the state can do this – they did it after Andrew. But it’ll never happen with DeSantis and everyone here knows it.

  47. 47.

    Kelly

    Seven months ago I was watching videos of Ukrainian civilians of all ages gathering to make thousands of Molotov cocktails to throw at the Russians from the rubble piles of their cities. There are horrors and rubble piles but the highly professional Ukrainian military kicks the legs out from under the Russians over and over again.

  48. 48.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Poptartacus: I read Josh Marshall’s twitter lists about the RU-UA war.  And one thing that the Ukrainian voices have said over and over, is this: the RU exiles seem to all get het up about visa restrictions for Russians.  Some stage rallies in support of RU.  But there seem to be no RU exiles who are staging rallies in support of Ukraine.  And the Ukrainians notice this lapse.

    I’ve noticed it myself in various RU voices — high-profile voices — on those twitter lists.  They get very, very exercised about the possibility of tourist visa restrictions, and never, *never*, *never* get exercised about the obvious evidence of Ukrainian refugees being attacked by RU emigre’s, in EU countries.  Ukrainian refugees being attacked, hounded into hiding, even being killed.

    Maybe you’ve seen a better side of these Russian emigre’s.  But what I’ve seen is very self-centered and Russo-centric.  It would be much easier to feel kindly towards them if they exerted themselves in support of Ukrainian refugees in a really visible way

    ETA: and as we’ve read, a large majority of these UA refugees are women and children; their men stayed behind to fight.  So these RU emigre’s, these young men from RU, are attacking UA women and children.

  49. 49.

    ian

    @sdhays: In the Napoleonic wars, WW1, and WW2 the Russian/Soviet military also struggled with winter conditions.  Soldiers who grew up dealing with these winter conditions could still perish in them.  In all of those cases, they simply had more manpower to replace loses and less distance to resupply troops than their competitors.

    Neither of those two factors is true in this conflict.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    Mobilised from Norilsk were left to sleep in the empty field near a VDV unit in Omsk. This man recommends others to take everything with them, including food, sleeping bags, gas burners. Temperatures in Omsk this time of year go to -5 celcius at night. pic.twitter.com/HeVCwypNqg— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 2, 2022

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    10/ #Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision. https://t.co/bediT0xICa

    — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 3, 2022

    [ womp, womp ]

    Lots of least-surprising-thing-ever candidates in this thread tonight!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  54. 54.

    Tony G

    @Andrya: My understanding is that widespread corruption was the main reason why the Fascist Italian armed forces — powerful on paper — were worse than useless in combat during World War 2.  History repeating itself maybe.

  55. 55.

    Tony G

    @Another Scott: That thread from

     

    @Another Scott: That thread from Galeev is remarkable.  He observed back in March — almost seven months ago — the shit-show that’s been happening since.  And the lack of respect shown in Russia to Russian soldiers is also remarkable.  The leaders don’t even pretend to have respect for the men who kill and die for the egos of those above them.  No wonder the Russian military can’t fight effectively.

  56. 56.

    Freemark

    @Andrya: or never made in the first place. They were all on paper. Amazing how 1.5 million uniforms were stored in a 10×10 storage locker. Just a educated guess

  58. 58.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Poptartacus: Ukrainians point out that among the tens or hundreds of thousands of russian cowards who have left for free countries (I will not give them the honor of calling them “refuseniks”) there have been approximately zero who have taken up any public voice in protest of the war or in support of Ukraine. So they would not join in your conclusion that these are good people.

  59. 59.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: Or even the bare minimum, which would be to urge their host countries to do right by the Ukrainian refugees in their midst — to confront and out (as in shine a light on) all the bad-actor Russian cowards threatening and attacking Ukrainian refugees.  That’s the absolute minimum one could expect of them, and they can’t even be bothered to do that.

  60. 60.

    Jager

    There is a big Army Surplus store near Moss Landing, CA. My grandsons have always made it a must-stop. Reading all the stories about the corruption in the Russian Military, lack of supplies, and now cold weather clothing, etc. I’ve often wondered why the store has always had so much Russian gear, everything from pilot’s helmets to winter boots. Rack after rack of Russian military clothing and gear. As much Russian gear as US surplus.

  61. 61.

    dr. luba

    @Andrya: Perun was the god of thunder, law and war, symbolized by the oak and the mallet (or throwing stones), and identified with the Baltic Perkuna; Timothy Snyder also identifies him with Thor, which makes sense, as the Rus were Vikings. His cult was practiced not so much by commoners but mainly by the aristocracy (e.g. Vikings).

    Side note: Snyder’s lecture series on the Origins of Modern Ukraine has been great, and I’ve enjoyed the eight lectures so far and learned a lot.  Highly recommended.

  62. 62.

    kalakal

    I’ve no idea what quantity of forces Ukraine still has uncommited but if they have sufficent a push more or less straight  south in the zone of Melitopol and east thereof would probably destroy the Russian position in Ukraine. They’re hopelessly overstretched: Bleeding out in Kherson. attempting a  expensive grinding assault around Donetsk and desperately trying to shore up a collapse further north. That area probably has a pie crust defense of 3 men and a dog as the Russians will have been denuding it to prop up their positions elsewhere. Russian command of the theatre would collapse under the overload, the entire Kherson position woul be totally untenable and the forces to East would then have to give up any attempt at assault and pivot 90° just to hang on. The Russians are very close to running out of having a functioning army in Ukraine

  63. 63.

    kalakal

    @Tony G: Another reason was the Italian army had more or less continually at war since 1935 in Ethiopia, Spain as well as a guerilla campaign in Libya. A hell of a lot of the troops were demoralised by near constant combat

  65. 65.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @CaseyL: ​
     That’s pretty much the story every single time in Russia. This is why one has to wonder if the hollowing out extended to the nuke forces, both tactical and Strategic Rocket. We can’t make assumptions that it did, but if it did, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least.

  66. 66.

    dr. luba

    @Poptartacus: Europe’s sentiments

    To the Russians such as @max_katz who are questioning European values because of closed borders to fleeing Russians who were OK since Feb24 but suddenly are not so Z anymore

    We owe you – zero
    We like you – zero
    We trust you – zero

    Look in the mirror and ask yourselves why.
    — Andrius Tapinas (@AndriusTapinas) October 2, 2022

  67. 67.

    Jay

    @Tony G:

    The Italian Military’s issues date back to WWI.

    1. The Italian Officer Corp was composed of the Nobility while the soldiers were peasants.
    2. Italian tactics were stuck in WWI.
    3. WWII required an Industrial economy with modern weapons and Soldiers/Officers capable of operating the “tools”. Italy barely had an industrial base, weapons were a decade behind almost everybody else and few Italians had any kind of “modern” exposure. The longest ranged piece of Italian arty could shoot 5miles, 1/4 of the range of a 17 pounder.
    4. The Italian Navy was probably the most modern and well equipped arm of the Italian Military, but suffered from poor leadership at the top levels.
  68. 68.

    Chetan Murthy

    @dr. luba: These selfish fucks’ definition of “European values” starts and ends at “how does it affect ME ME ME MEEEEEE”.  Fucking Russian pigs.

  70. 70.

    Chetan Murthy

    @dr. luba: It’s not just this one guy, either.  A number of Russian commentators are doing the same thing.  They’re against the war, sure, but that’s not what gets them exercised: it’s the visa bans that get them really outraged.  And they haven’t got a thought for the Ukrainian refugees endangered by Russian draft resisters in Europe.  Not a thought in the world.

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @Another Scott:

    It takes a lot to have a functioning military. The people fighting have to have a minimum rational for being there. There really isn’t any minimum rational, this is vlad’s plaything. There has to be training, people shooting at you brings one of two responses, first if you are trained reasonably, rationally, you know what to do, if you are willing and able you can be reasonably to very proficient, second if you are neither you will very likely die or give up so you don’t. Those thrown into the fight as chum are giving up en mass, because they aren’t stupid, well armed, or warm, and they aren’t willing to die so vlad can get a hard on. vlad’s chums have been screwing their country for money, and vlad has been in on it from the start. vlad’s bravado and greed has blinded him to reality and that reality is kicking his ass. He wants Ukraine for his trophy mantle and it’s costing him his country and it could cost him more.

  72. 72.

    Ruckus

    @sdhays:

    You are thinking rationally. The individuals that get shot at don’t make the clothing or the vehicles or the guns or the ammo. They don’t run anything or do any more than the minimum they are told to do, because it isn’t worth crap if they do and the reality is they haven’t been trained. And that does not work in warfare. You can’t just throw bodies out of trains and expect miracles, it doesn’t work that way.

  73. 73.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    Young man, I like the cut of your jib.

    rethuglicans just want to scam everyone and not spend one dime making anything better. They’d rather that they might be able to stick that dime or billion in their pockets and fuck everyone who isn’t shitty enough to steal anything not bolted down.

  75. 75.

    Ruckus

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Not to actually defend those russians – but. If they made noise they would likely be shot by someone. They are giving up by the thousands, their homes, their likelihood of possibly every returning to russia, maybe ever seeing their families ever again. That ain’t chopped liver. And given all that I actually agree with you, even as I can understand why they might not speak out.

  76. 76.

    Ksmiami

    @Chetan Murthy: They can stay in Russia and try and rebuild their own damn country… Maybe gain some empathy and perspective about why everyone outside Russia hates their fucking guts except for some Fox News programmable meat sacks.

  78. 78.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ruckus:

    If they made noise they would likely be shot by someone.

    These aren’t Russians in Russia: these are Russians in EU countries.  They’re safe, and yet they do nothing to help the Ukrainian refugees around them, nothing to help Ukraine, nothing to push their host countries to do more for Ukraine in the war.  Instead, some of them actually rally for Russia.  It’s obscene.

    And sure, maybe if they were to rally for Ukraine, they could never go home.  I call that selfish.  They’re more concerned about themselves, than about the victims of their country’s madness.  They’re more concerned about being able to go home, than whether the victims of their country’s madness can ever go home, are even safe in their refugee centers.

    I have no sympathy for them: they’re *safe*, *safe* in the EU, and even still, they can only think of themselves.

  80. 80.

    Freemark

    @Ksmiami: So do you think those that went to Canada to avoid the Vietnam draft should have stayed here? I know ‘polls’ in Russia showed Russians supporting the war. But those polls are are about as accurate as the  referendums joining Russia. The ‘brain drain’ out of Russia may be more devastating for Russia than any of our sanctions. Not saying they should be treated like tourists but more like refugees. Put them to in refugee camps and vet them like we do refugees from other enemy countries

  81. 81.

    Ruckus

    @Chetan Murthy:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    As I said, I agree, even as I understand. Russia has been a country that you survive, no matter how well off you are. Of course it takes money to escape and that’s why those outside of russia are better off, the cost of escaping is more than many have. It’s still their homeland, even if they decided to leave. The question would be do they know how corrupt Russia is and that not everywhere is the same. Look at most of our conservative politicians, say deathsantus. They are all about the benefit of fucking over those who can’t/don’t want to fuck over everyone else. Every man is an island. Everyone is fucking over every one else. They believe that because that’s what they always see from their perspective. In Russia that is quite often the case, this is what they know. It takes time to learn otherwise, if in fact they are capable of learning it. Humans are creatures of habit. We often do the wrong thing because it feels good in the moment. We often think that is the way crap is. Even people that live in places where it isn’t always that way, people often can’t believe it isn’t, because that’s what they know. In Russia people know that corruption is everywhere, all the time, because it is. You expect them to know it isn’t just like that without it being obvious? Humans? Remember there are still people running around free that think SFB is going to save them from the hordes. Now I’ve never seen those hordes but a large portion of our population just KNOW that they exist.

    Answer me this, how often do large groups of humans ever seem even close to actual rationality? It happens, it’s rare.

  82. 82.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Freemark: There *is* a big difference between Americans who went to Canada, and Russians fleeing to Europe: America wasn’t a threat to Canada, whereas Russia is most definitely a threat to Europe.  And these Russians’ flight immediately after the mobilization (and not in the half-year before it) tells us that they were perfectly happy with Russia’s being a threat to Europe; they just didn’t wanna fight.

    As Zelenskiyy put it (paraphrasing): “your silence was already a choice; so now you need to choose to resist, or you’ll be complicit”.

  83. 83.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ruckus: You remind me  of the Monty Python “Dead Bishop on the landing” sketch.  That ends with the father (who killed the bishop) saying “I blame society”.  And the cops say “right, we’ll lock them up then” (and take away everybody besides the father).

    That these Russians were brought up in a bad country, doesn’t excuse that they have no regard for the Ukrainian refugees in their midst, and don’t think they have a duty to speak out against Russia’s war.  What they’re doing instead, is benefiting from Europe, while doing nothing to preserve and perpetuate that system.

    They’re selfish creeps.  And the Ukrainians know this, and call it out.

    I mean, look at this shithead Leonid Ragozin: he thinks that if Russia rattles a nuclear saber, we must all quake in fear and do nothing.  Nothing.  He’s a shithead.  And he’s one of the ones bitching about visa restrictions.  Overfed shithead Russian.

    Two questions we should consider:
    1) Why would large conventional retaliation to Russian nuclear use not result in a major U.S.-Russian conflagration, including nuclear strikes? Moscow would have already showed a will to use nuclear weapons.

    2) Is that risk worth the benefits?
    — Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby) October 2, 2022

     

    This sounds so obvious, but apparently not obvious enough for many, so needs to be said. https://t.co/CLy7mBhlEl
    — Leonid ХВ Ragozin (@leonidragozin) October 2, 2022

  84. 84.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ruckus:

    Answer me this, how often do large groups of humans ever seem even close to actual rationality? It happens, it’s rare.

    I’m not asking for “rationality”.  I’m asking for common *decency*.  Your country is raping and murdering, and you can’t be bothered to support the victims?  And indeed, many of your own emigre’ countrymen are attacking those victims in the countries where they took refuge?  Your countrymen are staging rallies in support of your murderous country, again in the places where they took refuge?  That’s madness.

    It’s not asking too much, that these fucking Russian cowards should work hard to support Ukraine and Ukrainians in the countries to which they flee.  It’s the very least they can do.

  85. 85.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: And I should  add: these European countries are *also* under threat from Russia.  So these gutless shithead coward Russians both flee to (e.g.) Estonia, do nothing to help Ukraine (and Estonia) resist their own home country, and then have the temerity to *bitch* that Estonia makes it harder for Russians to get tourist visas?  And many of them rally in *support* of Russia?  And threaten and attack Ukrainian refugees in Estonia?

    Fucking chutzpah, that shit.

  86. 86.

    Ksmiami

    @Freemark: at least the draftees who fled the Vietnamese war mostly spoke out against it and had the courage of their moral convictions- Russians still don’t see Ukrainian suffering as the tragic crime it is. They actually target Ukrainian refugees in EU countries. Fuck em.

  88. 88.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Chetan Murthy:  Ruckus is right.

    The US conceives democracy and human rights as fiercely  ‘individual’. Other polities have managed to combine respect for individual expression with an older more old fashioned, ethos of democratic ‘solidarity’. Russia it appears, has managed neither, never having had the opportunity of building a democratic ethos out of the crash landing of a post soviet economy man-handled by the liars and thieves of the old soviet economy, directed and cheered on by the libertarian know-nothings that run the US economy. Tragedy and farce in one generation.

  89. 89.

    ColoradoGuy

    @Aussie Sheila: I blame the long-term corrosive influence of Ayn Rand, which has become a minor cult in this country since the Reagan years. It has greatly weakened the FDR/Truman/Eisenhower sense of national solidarity (as it was intended to do) and made expensive, large-scale, long-term projects like the Interstate Highway System or Apollo impossible. It’s all been left to the casual (in)attentions of the private sector, so we get Facebook instead of a prestige national high-speed rail system. And regulation of TV and radio broadcasting has essentially ceased, with enormously destructive effects on the national polity. The Nixon years marked the end of big national projects, and Reagan demonized the Federal Government in the minds of at least half the population.

  91. 91.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Aussie Sheila: And yet Ukraine was also part of the same Soviet Union, and faced much the same economic conditions, and managed *not* to become a shithole. A real riddle.

  93. 93.

    zhena gogolia

    @Chetan Murthy:

    These aren’t Russians in Russia: these are Russians in EU countries. They’re safe, and yet they do nothing to help the Ukrainian refugees around them, nothing to help Ukraine, nothing to push their host countries to do more for Ukraine in the war.

    You don’t know what the fuck you are talking about.

  95. 95.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    This is armchair quarterbacking and right wing virtue signaling of the highest degree, perfectly flavored for a Hellishly sadistic bully.  Yes, he totally saw this failure coming and had a plan to prevent it.  The problem is that the Russian leadership isn’t clapping its hands hard enough!  He would be even meaner, if it were him in charge!

    I don’t know if K is an established coward or an actual front-line leader, but this is the pablum you get from right wing assholes who would never get out of their chair in the US.

  96. 96.

    Gvg

    @Martin: what are you talking about? After Andrew we beefed up the hurricane building codes and enforcement. That is why no hurricane since has had the kind of impact Andrew did. The feds did very little with improving anything, they were recovery back to normal and national guards for anti looting. The feds give fast money. They do help when they know what to do, but it is mostly Florida’s fema and planning that make our response ok. Just compare other states response.Especially Texas, they are terrible.

    No the state under Desantis won’t make any codes stricter. But I am afraid that does have to be state. I have never seen much come from federal and I have seen prior improvements from the state. It’s one of the reasons republicans might lose some elections after this.

    A bunch of your ideas wouldn’t help. Underground utilities are becoming more common. People like them here and cities chose to push them even if the state doesn’t. My lower middle class neighborhood has them, so do most of the upper middle and well it’s quite common since about the 80’s.

    Roads are mostly lower than homes anyway, planning not to have flooding is more of a big scale large area all working together problem.

  98. 98.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Chetan Murthy: I admit: my #1 personal priority when thinking about Ukraine is to avoid a global thermonuclear war that will destroy civilization. That’s selfish, to some degree. Ukrainians in Ukraine don’t have a lot to lose in advocating approaches that will increase the risk of global thermonuclear war, because Russia is likely going to wipe them out anyway if it gets what it wants. But my own interests don’t coincide with theirs 100%.

    Now my second priority is to avoid a world in which anyone with a lot of nukes can go full Bond-villain and just get whatever they want by threatening to push the button. In part because that would probably lead to the first nightmare in short order (what happens when two of these countries disagree? it’s like Stand Your Ground on a global scale), but also because that’s a terrible world in itself. And there, my interests are fully coincident with Ukraine’s.

    But concern #1 does limit the amount of aggression I’m going to advocate. Also, having been burned by the entire experience of living under the George W. Bush administration, which is huge.

  100. 100.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: That tweet does not represent what I’ve been seeing. Would you like a list of links to long, anguished discussions by Russians, which have been appearing since Feb. 24, and which include long, anguished comment threads? The idea that ZERO Russians have been speaking out is completely false.

    ETA: I’ve never heard of that guy. The people I’ve been seeing are prominent, influential voices like Bykov, Schulman, Eidelman, Yudin, etc., etc., etc.

  103. 103.

    Gin & Tonic

    @zhena gogolia: Look, I know you’re invested in the “good russian” idea, but frankly it’s coming across as a #notallwhitepeople apologia in a racism discussion.

    Those “long, anguished discussions” are not moving the public opinion needle *in Ukraine* one iota. That’s what I’m trying to convey here – Ukrainian public opinion.

  104. 104.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: You said that there had been zero speaking out by Russians who have left the country. That is not true. Whether or not it has any effect on Ukrainians was not the question. I have (and they have) no power over that. But to say that they are not speaking out is patently false.

    Yes, I refuse to believe that millions of people are evil just because they are Russians. This reminds me of people suggesting we cut off Texas and Florida from the rest of the country because of their political leadership.

  105. 105.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: To remind you of your words:

    there have been approximately zero who have taken up any public voice in protest of the war or in support of Ukraine.

    Not true.

  106. 106.

    zhena gogolia

    I’m sitting comfortably in the U.S., so I refuse to sneer at the efforts of people who have left their homes and careers. I refuse to think they are evil. So sue me.

  109. 109.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: Well, then, Ukrainians are wrong. You are giving the impression on this blog, where people come for information, that ZERO Russians have spoken out against the war. I will not let that falsehood stand.

  110. 110.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic:
    Here’s the whole quotation, if it changes anything:

    Ukrainians point out that among the tens or hundreds of thousands of russian cowards who have left for free countries (I will not give them the honor of calling them “refuseniks”) there have been approximately zero who have taken up any public voice in protest of the war or in support of Ukraine. So they would not join in your conclusion that these are good people.

    What Ukrainians are “pointing out” here is false. They are entitled to think that what Russians are saying is insignificant, unimportant, ineffectual, but they’re not entitled to their own facts. And neither are you.

  112. 112.

    Gin & Tonic

    @zhena gogolia: russians are committing genocide. You’ll have to excuse me when I don’t give a shit about their long anguished discussions that accomplish nothing.

  113. 113.

    Another Scott

    @Gvg: Thanks for helping to give a more complete picture of the situation, here and in other threads.

    It’s appreciated.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  115. 115.

    Geminid

    IAEA chief Raphael Grossi announced that Ihor Murashov, director general of the Zaporizhne nuclear facility, has been released and is with his family. Russian forces kidnapped Murashov on Friday.      From CNBC.

  116. 116.

    Carlo Graziani

    @kalakal:

    I’ve no idea what quantity of forces Ukraine still has uncommited but if they have sufficent a push more or less straight south in the zone of Melitopol and east thereof would probably destroy the Russian position in Ukraine. They’re hopelessly overstretched: Bleeding out in Kherson. attempting a expensive grinding assault around Donetsk and desperately trying to shore up a collapse further north. That area probably has a pie crust defense of 3 men and a dog as the Russians will have been denuding it to prop up their positions elsewhere. Russian command of the theatre would collapse under the overload, the entire Kherson position woul be totally untenable and the forces to East would then have to give up any attempt at assault and pivot 90° just to hang on. The Russians are very close to running out of having a functioning army in Ukraine.

    On the other hand, the Ukrainians are running two offensives simultaneously, with the principal one (Kherson) sparing forces to the showy one (Kharkiv) that is probably draining more resources than the UA bargained for when they started it. Lest we forget, the real prize is not a flyspeck town like Lyman: it’s bagging those 25,000 Russian troops west of the Dnipro. It’s totally not worth starting any new adventures until they are all dead or in POW camps.

  117. 117.

    Torrey

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​
     

    I do love it when he gets a little salty about putin.

    I don’t know enough Ukrainian to be able to translate the full sentence, but the English translation “Something has gone wrong with someone” at 1.58 has the phrase ‘not according to plan’ (не за планом). It looks like it might be something along the lines of “Something in someone went [or ‘has gone’?] not according to plan,” which would of course make it even better. (Possibly one of our resident Ukrainian specialists can correct my reading?)

  118. 118.

    kalakal

    @Carlo Graziani: Right now Kherson is an lesson in economy of force. The UA is bleeding the RA dry there, those troops aren’t going anywhere, Russia is literally killing its army to supply and maintain those 25,000  troops in a strategic dead end. In terms of manpower and resources the attrition ratio is massively stacked in Ukraine’s favour and has been for weeks. They may not be in as much of a hurry to close it down as you think

  119. 119.

    Carlo Graziani

    @kalakal: I could be wrong.

    But I can think of a number of reasons to wind up the Kherson campaign sooner rather than later, including (1) inflicting a second shattering political blow immediately upon the Russians while taking a huge number of POWs; (2) not offering any hostages to fortune by chancing that a shockingly unexpected outcome of war rob the UA of a prize they deserved but delayed in grasping; (3) not weaken themselves in  hubristically launching a third offensive — another dice roll, prior to the fact, which could always go sideways, because war does that, you know.

    The Ukrainians are insanely up by taking calculated risks, not open gambles. Rolling on a hunch at this point is how gamblers lose.

  120. 120.

    kalakal

    @Carlo Graziani: In what way have I suggested the Ukrainians would be gambling on a hunch? After the initial failure of the Russian invasion it’s quite clear they have extremely good operational intelligence and the Russians is very poor. As I initially stated, if they have the resources in reserve and the intelligence assessment of Russian strength is favourable  then it would not be gambling on a hunch. Kherson is bleeding the Russians dry as it is. They need to keep 25,000 troops supplied. They can’t do it by sea or air. They are having to do it through a few heavily interdicted points across a mile wide river. They will have zero offensive capability, being hard pressed to maintain basic supplies of food, ammunition and POL. They can defend in an unfavourable situation and that’s it and it’s killing Russian logistic capability to do that. The UA has been taking calculated risks, they have to, there has however been nothing insane about those risks. The Russians overextended themselves and ran themselves into a sack in Kherson and the Ukranians are exploiting that. That same overextension allowed the Ukranians, at a high cost to both sides,grudgingly give ground in the Donbas. The Ukranian calculation based on their superior intelligence allowed them to build up a reserve force, the size and location being unknown to the Russian (due to very poor Russian intelligence of which the UA seems very aware) and mount a surprise assault at a very poorly defended but vital logistic area thereby unhinging the entire north-eastern russian flank.  Very much a calculated risk, but not an insane one. What the UA does next will be based on calculation not a hunch, it may be to reduce the Russian position west of the Dniper, it may be to double down on the operations around Lyman, it may be to add a third assault, or any combination of these. Depending on intelligence the third assault I hypothesised may well be a viable operation and it would shatter the RA

Comments are closed.