I’m going to keep this short tonight because today has involved the following: The plumbers that came to install the new water heater didn’t read any of the manuals they were sent and 1) didn’t realize they needed to tell us we needed an electrician to do some rewiring to handle the heavier load of the brand new and larger water heater before they installed it and 2) had to be stopped from situating it in the wrong place. So I’ve got water, but won’t have hot water until sometime next week when the electrician can come over and do what they need to do. And then my older dog Rosie decided to puke twice. She’s fine, behavior and demeanor are normal, she ate minced boiled chicken and steamed white rice for dinner, and will soon be going for a walk.
And with all that my day was still better than for the Ukrainians in harm’s way.
One housekeeping item before we get underway: if someone wants to type first or frist or whatever – please don’t start trying to type “whatever” in a comment trying to have it be the first comment; honestly, I don’t know why I’m bothering to ask, I’ve know who you are, I’m going to get 500 whatever comments tonight… – in what they think is going to be the first comment to the post, that’s fine. They don’t need to be dumped on. They don’t need to be tone policed. Unless we’ve got an obvious troll, just cut everyone and yourselves some slack and go on about your commenting. If you think something’s really egregious or way over the line and you don’t think I’m around in the comments, email me and I’ll deal with it. If someone uses the Russian spelling for some place in Ukraine, please just politely point it out and ask them to remember the next time. No need to pile on. If something need’s policing or someone needs sorting out or a troll needs blacklisting, I’ll do it. If you think I’ve missed it – my schedule has shifted to early AM starts, so earlier PM to sleep for the project I’ve been working on, so it is possible I might be asleep – again, just email me and I’ll deal with it in the AM or in the next night’s post.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians!
We continue eliminating the aftermath of today’s terrorist attacks on our infrastructure. The geography of this new massive strike is very wide: Volyn, Odesa, Khmelnytsky region, Kirovohrad region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Rivne region, Mykolaiv region, Zaporizhia region and other places.
The main target of terrorists is energy. Therefore, please be even more careful than before about the need to consciously consume electricity. The stability of the power industry of our entire state depends on each city and district of Ukraine.
Please limit the use of appliances that use a lot of electricity. And especially during peak consumption hours in the morning and in the evening. Please, pay attention to notices from local authorities and power companies about when there may be stabilization blackouts on your street or in your area. Plan your day with this information in mind.
In part of the territory of our country, where electricity was cut off due to today’s strike, it has already been possible to restore power supply. Electricity supply has already been resumed partly in Odesa region, partly in Khmelnytsky region, most of Rivne region has resumed power supplies. There are positive reports from other regions as well. But in many cities, in many districts, recovery work is still ongoing. We are trying to return power to people as soon as possible.
I want to thank everyone who is involved in this work: energy workers, utility and local government workers, government officials and businesses that also help. Together, we are now showing that Ukrainian life cannot be broken. Even if the enemy can leave us temporarily without power, it will still never succeed in leaving us without the desire to make things right, to mend and return them to normal.
And even now – partially in the dark – life in our state, in our Ukraine, is still civilized. Unlike Russia that brings us this terror. They still have the same wildness with electricity there, as in ancient times. Only savages can bring such evil to the world.
I want to emphasize: neither this strike by terrorists nor any other similar strikes by them will stop our defenders.
Russian propagandists are lying when they say that this terror against our infrastructure and people can somehow slow down the active actions of our military or create some difficulties for our defense. Ukrainians are united and know for sure that Russia has no chance of winning this war. Our defense forces are getting everything they need to defend the country and are pushing forward every day – I emphasize: every day.
Our Air Force also shows good results. Of course, we do not yet have the technical ability to shoot down 100% of Russian missiles and attack drones. We will gradually come to this – with the help of our partners, I’m confident of this. But we are already shooting down most of the cruise missiles, most of the drones. Only in the first half of this day, 20 missiles were shot down – Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles, as well as more than 10 Iranian Shahed UAVs.
Today, I want to once again thank our soldiers – fighter pilots and anti-aircraft gunners of the West, South and Center air commands, as well as mobile fire groups of all the Defense Forces for the saved lives of our people and the preserved infrastructure of Ukraine.
We are preparing the ground for extending the global sanctions policy to all Russian propagandists, so-called opinion leaders and show business representatives who support or justify terror. The International Working Group on Sanctions Against Russia, chaired by Michael McFaul and Andriy Yermak, has prepared an Individual Sanctions Roadmap. It prepared a basic list of all those involved in the spread of narratives without which Russian terror is impossible. We must clearly evaluate such an “informational and emotional” component of terror: the Russian army loses and retreats on the battlefield, and therefore the results of terror against our civilian population and infrastructure are presented by Russian propaganda as a substitute for military victories.
Also, various Russian newsmen and stars are involved in justifying the criminal attempt to annex our territory and mobilize for war against us, against Ukraine. Absolutely all such persons should receive a full package of individual sanctions so that they cannot do anything in the world at all. We are working on it.
Ukraine was very well represented this week in Frankfurt at the largest book fair in Europe and one of the largest in the world. This is not just an event for the publishing business and writers. It is one of the key European discussion platforms and an influential informational event.
The First Lady of Ukraine presented her projects supporting education and the cultural sphere there. In particular, the Books Without Borders initiative is to provide children of our forced migrants with books in the Ukrainian language. And also the Ukrainian Bookshelf project, which is already presented in 20 countries of the world.
In total, more than 40 Ukrainian publishing houses, famous writers, famous publicists, and historians took part in the Frankfurt fair. I thank everyone who worked in Frankfurt for making Ukraine heard and bringing the message about it there. Every contribution to the world’s support for Ukraine is vitally important.
I thank everyone who works and helps for our victory!
Eternal glory to all who fight for Ukraine!
Glory to our indomitable people!
Glory to Ukraine!
As President Zelenskyy referenced in his address, the Russians opened up on Ukrainian civilian targets again today. Both civilian residential, civilian power generation and transmission, and civilian water facilities. None of these targets have any military value. Targeting them is solely an attempt to terrorize the Ukrainians into fleeing, creating a new wave of internally displaced Ukrainians or Ukrainian refugees, in an attempt to force the EU states to lean on Ukraine to capitulate and give Putin what he wants, but cannot actually achieve militarily. These strikes are kinetic influence and psychological operations.
The enemy has raised the stakes by destroying power plants and water supply facilities on the eve of winter. The enemy expects thousands of people to die from the cold. But the enemy hasn’t learned anything about the Ukrainian people's resistance.
2/2— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 22, 2022
A bomb shelter in Rivne. As a result of russian missile attacks, part of the city remains without electricity and water. pic.twitter.com/nMEeNCCraj
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 22, 2022
.@ZelenskyyUa for @CTV @CBC
If the occupiers turn off our lights, we will find them.
Because they are cowards.
We will sniff them out.— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 22, 2022
“Mariupol. I’ll be back. 🇺🇦”
Art by Oleksandr Lukianov pic.twitter.com/Arb8DeLz8t— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 22, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Kherson:
BAKHMUT/ 1945 UTC 22 OCT/ Wagner PMC and DNR/LNR militias are pressing UKR defenders. UKR artillery interdicting RU Lines of Communication and Supply. pic.twitter.com/kbnfvZyZE0
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 22, 2022
KHERSON/1310 UTC 22 OCT/ UKR reports civilian evacuation of city nearing completion. RU troops preparing positions for urban fight. UKR aviation conducts 16 strike missions across all axes of contact: Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) sorties destroy S-300 battery. pic.twitter.com/wzAXycRo64
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 22, 2022
IMPENDING DEFEAT: @JayinKyiv posts that a Wagner affiliated Telegram channel says that Kherson is lost. The Russian 49th Combined Arms Army has the Dnipro at its back, and some sources report that RU units east of the Inhulets River may be already be falling back. https://t.co/jOfNurVtlR pic.twitter.com/pZcxYuGA6c
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 22, 2022
From The New Voice of Ukraine:
Russian troops in Kherson Oblast discard their uniforms and retreat across the Dnipro River in civilian clothes, Ukraine’s Operational Command South spokesperson Nataliya Humeniuk told Ukrainian TV broadcasters on Oct. 21.
“In an attempt to arrange an alternative crossing over the Dnipro (River), they even don stolen clothes, sometimes without removing price tags from civilian clothes they stole from stores,” Humeniuk said.
She added that Russians are hoping to create an impression of Ukrainian forces attacking civilians.
“We aren’t firing at critical infrastructure that could threaten civilian population,” Humeniuk said.
“We don’t fire on crossings when we know there are civilians there. And we are monitoring this situation very carefully.”
She noted that Moscow’s propaganda looks to blame the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the crimes committed by invading Russian forces.
Recent satellite imagery shows Russian troops near Kherson urgently transferring their vehicles and personnel to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There’s not a new tweet, nor a new TikTok video at Patron’s official accounts. So here’s a repost:
https://t.co/D2ed7N80lB I forgot yesterday to duplicate my fundraising for the needs of sappers. You already know it: we buy equipment or, unfortunately, pay for the treatment of sappers.
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 12, 2022
Here’s a thread with some pictures of Patron stamps:
#SlavaUkrainii #GoodBoy pic.twitter.com/PTLQjqq9FA
— 🚜 Maurizio Recordati 🚜 (@kavurzio) October 19, 2022
You gotta love the stamp where he sniffs a grenade inside a matryoshka and the one with a tank-towing tractor…
— 🚜 Maurizio Recordati 🚜 (@kavurzio) October 19, 2022
Open thread!
MobiusKlein
It’s a blank comment section, I am compelled
RepubAnon
Putin’s plan is to hang on until a Republican House can cut funding for Ukraine’s defense.
zhena gogolia
We have to keep the House. We just have to.
Alison Rose
I can’t begin to imagine the collective PTSD Ukrainians will have for years and years after this is over. As strong as most (or all!) of them are, they’re still human, and the emotional toll must be harrowing.
And all for what? Some damn egomaniacal bastard throwing a lethal tantrum.
I put my Patron postcard that came with the stamps on the shelf across from my sofa, and looking at it makes me smile.
Thank you as always, Adam.
dr. luba
Russia is a terrorist state. That is all.
bbleh
I hate this continuing news about the forced evacuation of Kherson. I reeeely do not trust the Russians here, and I fear what they may be considering.
dmsilev
@RepubAnon: Probably. May take a while though. While I’m sure the GOP would refuse to allocate new funds (or-at the very least would demand ludicrous policy concessions in return), clawing back already-allocated money would be a lot harder for them to do, so it’d take at least a few months after January for the Republican House to effectively ride to Putin’s aid.
Villago Delenda Est
Gosh, sounds like something closer to home, doesn’t it?
bbleh
@zhena gogolia: hope (and work!) for the best, but plan for the worst. We had a preview under Boehner, and he was considerably more intelligent and competent than McCarthy.
(I actually wonder, though, if the Dems really pushed back on it, whether a Republican-controlled House would cut funding materially. Americans like underdogs. I can easily see a bunch of Republican Congress-critters getting very squirmy indeed *IF* their feet were held to the fire.)
Alison Rose
@Villago Delenda Est: Sure does.
bbleh
@Villago Delenda Est: Lol. All too much of it sounds close to home. Like, they talked every week or something …
cain
Republicans are a global threat to everyone – we need to use everything that is happening in Ukraine to show the American people that this is a battle that needs to be fought.
I find it funny that Americans are all in on fighting brown people in other countries but can’t seem to bother when it’s in regards to something like Slavic. I guess they can’t get really scared about the enemy since they are white not brown.
OverTwistWillie
<a href="http://
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Gin & Tonic
@OverTwistWillie: You have to be in “Text” and not “Visual” mode when you embed a Tweet
ETA: Never mind.
Adam L Silverman
@bbleh: They’re going to use the Ukrainians as human shields. Putin said this on tv in 2014.
Adam L Silverman
@bbleh: McCarthy will not be speaker. Stefanik and Jordan are the most likely candidates if the GOP retake the House.
Another Scott
I found this interactive map from ISW and Critical Threats to be helpful. (Scroll down).
It’s not animated, but one can zoom in and see things like areas where partisans are reportedly active. Last update 3 PM ET today.
Slava Ukraini!
Cheers,
Scott.
MagdaInBlack
@Adam L Silverman: That’s horrifying. I don’t doubt you, but dear lord.
bbleh
@Adam L Silverman: I fear worse. I fear not just using them as cover; I fear destruction of Kherson and whomever remains, either by brutal no-step-back scorched-earth urban warfare or — at the end — by large-scale destruction by some means (nuke, flooding), as a demonstration of “resolve” or something equally stupid. I fear not hostage-taking but actual mass death and destruction for its own sake. I would be very happy indeed to be wrong.
@Adam L Silverman: as observed elsewhere, I don’t know that Jordan, Stefanik, MTG, et al. would not be perfectly happy to leave the responsibilities of being Speaker to a puppet while they pursue their usual agenda. McCarthy will do as they insist, because he won’t realize he has any other choice, which will give them power without visible responsibility. (If there were a clear leader of the insurrectionists, a la Gingrich, I might think differently, but in this case I don’t think the Krazy Kaucus will mind having a malleable figurehead as Speaker.)
NutmegAgain
Re: Americans support for Ukraine if there are political shifts with the upcoming midterms (~wince~ I don’t even want to suppose). I mentioned a man I have some interactions with whose only reaction to the subject was to note how much money we are spending to arm the Ukrainians (and all kinds of similar garbage about, “why doesn’t Joe Biden lower prices?” was unsaid but hovered in the air). He retired from the Air Force, and now he’s working for my spine surgeon as a PA, in CT. He’s clearly from one of the Carolinas by accent. (Yeah once a sociologist gets going on the cultural and other descriptors, look out!) Somebody here kindly pointed out that the Air Force leans very conservative. So in sum, I’d say he represents the grievance wing of the GOP–no sense that he’s completely off his rocker–and plenty of folks from grievance out to the bananapants Q people very likely favor yanking the support from Ukraine. Lots of guns in American grade schools and grocery stores, but no more weapons for a scrappy underdog nation fighting for its life against a horrific genocidal invasion. Because don’t forget that logic, reasoning, compassion–these are anathema.
Shalimar
@bbleh: Jordan and Stefanik are both ultra-ambitious. They care more about sitting on the throne than exercising the power.
Andrya
@NutmegAgain: The russian government and associated banks and oligarchs have been conveying money to conservative movement institutions (e.g. the NRA) and also conservative politicians. (link link) Of course, that means that conservative politicians/media parrot the russian party line (e.g. D T**** Jr., Tucker Carlson, Rod Dreher). If your PA listens to conservative media (almost certain) he’s hearing a load of russian propaganda.
When the Supreme Court did Citizens United, I think they just thought they were giving the Republicans a permanent political advantage, as moneyed interests would give to the Republicans preferentially. They may not have realized they were also putting up a sign “For sale- US policy for sale to hostile foreign powers”.
Another Scott
@bbleh:
TheHill (from 10/20):
That’s kinda where I am. They want to use Ukraine support as leverage to cut domestic funding – especially in areas where Biden and the Democrats had big victories.
Keeping the House means that we don’t have to worry about these, and worse, hypotheticals.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Sanjeevs
@Andrya: Obama pointed this out at the time
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/obama-was-right-about-citizens-united
Alison Rose
@Another Scott: You know…considering the majority of the GOP are Christians, it’s going to be really interesting for them in the afterlife, when they run up to Jesus like “YAY HI BESTIE” and Jesus is like “LOL nope, y’all didn’t listen to a word I said, FOH”.
bbleh
@Shalimar: perhaps you’re right, and we’ll see tooth-and-nail butchery among Jordan, Stefanik, MTG, Banks, Gaetz (ok never mind), Boebert (ok never mind again, gawd), Gosar (ditto) and I dunno, probably some other contenders from TX and AZ and so on. Popcorn! And a hearty toast to bitter lingering divisions.
Villago Delenda Est
@Alison Rose: Well, they claim to be “Christians”, but like the fundagelicals, worship Mammon and Moloch. They do not follow that hippy-dippy from Nazareth.
Villago Delenda Est
@bbleh:
Orville Reddenbacher futures have skyrocketed.
NutmegAgain
Just found this on the Beeb via Youtube. Although Dmytro Bahnenko–Ukrainian journalist–started filming in March, it was just released. link It includes 3 months of his experiences of the Russian takeover of Kherson.
Jay
about Kherson,
why did Russia sent 2000 “moblik’s” in yesterday, why are they “digging in and fortifying”?
Urban warfare is a meat grinder for even well trained troops, well armed and lead effectively. Yes, the Defence has an advantage, but it’s only a significant if they know the city like the back of their hand, and the Orc’s don’t.
Ukraine does not have to “take the city”, they can just siege it and wait for it to fall.
Running a rear guard while evacuating the soldiers who have some training and combat experience, give the manpower issues Russia is having, makes more sense than trying to “Stalingrad”* Kherson.
*( right down to the 1 rifle per four untrained meat sandwiches tactics).
Yutsano
You’re not the one saying this but…
Fine. Start paying back Social Security if you take over asshole.
Adam L Silverman
@bbleh: Stefanik wants it badly. Jordan has positioned himself for it, but may just be happy being the prime pain in the ass. Scalise also wants it badly, but Stefanik will gut him and anyone else who gets in her way.
Mousebumples
Just checking in to offer my thanks to Adam (and others who have shared their knowledge in these threads) – I often don’t read them until morning, but I appreciate the information and insight.
Alison Rose
@Villago Delenda Est: This is true.
bbleh
@Yutsano: Aw the Republicans always complain about “the debt” or “the deficit” because they’re the “responsible conservative daddy” party. And yet, which presidents presided over the greatest increases in national debt (as a fraction of GDP, ie measured appropriate to its time)? Why that would be Saint Ronald Reagan and Flightsuit Boy Georgie Bush! And what happened in the first year of TFG’s blighted presidency? Why, a $1+ trillion Republican tax cut for corporations and the super-wealthy funded entirely by increasing the deficit! Amazing how it doesn’t matter when it benefits the Right People.
Dems should point this out and then DARE them to cut funds for Ukraine. And call them “enemies of freedom” in the process.
bbleh
@Adam L Silverman: let the blood flow and the viscera spill over the House chamber for all to see!
I put brewer’s yeast and olive oil and garlic on my popcorn. It’s delicious and appallingly healthy.
I like “prime pain in the ass,” although it sounds more like a British office than an American one. “The Right Honorable Mr. Jordan, PPA.”
Jay
Thieves, not journalists,
Another Scott
I like our chances – here and in Ukraine…
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Mousebumples: You, and everyone else, are most welcome.
Chief Oshkosh
@Another Scott:O’Hanlon is a proven idiot. Sadly, the mediocre find sinecures in the Septic Tanks of both the Right and the Left.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Not impressed with her knife skills, so far.
Anyway, various midterm elections are still in play, even control of the House, and should be treated as such for the next few weeks. IMO.
Sister Golden Bear
@Jay: “Yesterday they were just
clerksmobliks, todaytomorrowthey are the honored dead” as part of a glorious defense on par with Stalingrad. Their deaths must be avenged against the NATO puppet masters.Andrya
@bbleh: It’s not just hypocrisy (though it is that) as it is intended to be a one-way ratchet producing libertarian economics. Whenever Republicans control the government, they intentionally do tax cuts that run up the debt. Whenever they do not control the government, but have leverage (for example, the debt limit) they start screaming “OMG! The debt! We must cut Medicare, and Social Security, and food stamps, etc. because the debt is an emergency!!!!!” The goal is to restore Gilded Age economics where a few rich families control all the money and everyone else is dirt poor.
If (G-d forbid) the Republicans win control of the house in 3 weeks, it is absolutely essential that the lame duck Democratic congress raise the debt limit to a googleplex dollars (which they can do with a simple majority). Otherwise, the Republicans will use debt limit blackmail to burn down everything the Biden administration has achieved.
bbleh
@Andrya: Concur. The Prime Directive of the Republican party is to transfer wealth upward. Everything else — the accumulation of power, the cultivation of teh crayzee, and of course the stoking of fear about the Other — is a means to that end.
(Nitpick: googolplex Or, of course, the Platinum Coin. And y’know, Dark Brandon might actually be the one to DO it …)
Jay
Bill Arnold
Re Russian propagandists, this is very civilized, and also good to see:
I would not be distressed about literal or metaphorical field-expedient pithing operations against some of them, but civilized is best.
Cameron
@Adam L Silverman: I do get the impression that Jordan is the one who wants to conduct myriad show trials. Sort of a wingnut HUAC.
Cameron
@bbleh:
https://youtu.be/4VPpAZ9_qAw
I like the idea, but I think I’ll try whey protein first.
That sounds like the most disgusting cut of meat that a country (such as ours) with no production oversight would sell to the public.
Benno
@Jay: ok, here’s a dumb question: by retreating from Kherson could they be hoping to lure in a larger number of UA who could then be swept away when the dam is blown? Because I am a complete idiot about these kinds of things, this is wrong because….?
Urza
So, trying to read up on Ukrainian war crimes prior to the 2022 invasion to counter my co-worker. Checking on the Azov battalion who wikipedia and Iranian news say committed the crimes (obviously biased sources), it has all sorts of versions of the founding of Azov but they mention Jews being involved in the beginning. Founding and financing. Maybe the nazism crept in later after it became part of the military. But, if this was an American military group, or maybe other EU countries, the chances of gathering crazy people together and a bad commander or two could create something similar pretty easily, especially in the heat of combat.
Seems to me most of the bad things about them likely came through from Russian propaganda, though anyone with Ukrainian contacts feel free to contradict.
bbleh
@Cameron: the yeast has a slightly cheesy flavor, which goes well on popcorn. And then there’s all the B-vitamins and stuff.
I do not want to think further about Gym Jordan…
Jinchi
@Benno: Looking at the satellite map of the area, it seems that blowing the damn would cause significantly more flooding on the south side of the river. The Russians would have to retreat well back. I think it would imply them ceding everything west of the border with Crimea.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Benno: Armies tend to be very mobile and very aware of their surroundings because of the nature of war, so unlikely. You can bet that damn is under 24 surveillance by the UA just because of the flood threat. It’s the civilians who will suffer the most from a flood caused by a damn breach.
bbleh
@Benno: One trusts that the Ukrainians, well aware of the threat not just of floods in/around Kherson from destruction of the dam but also of (sigh) tactical nukes, are avoiding precisely the kind of mass concentration of forces (or logistical support) that would present a target for such a threat.
Were I the Ukrainians, I would, as soon as possible, conduct evacuation procedures on the west side, primarily to save lives but also to reduce the value of Kherson as a bargaining chip / target.
I take a very pessimistic view of Russia’s intentions at this point …
@Jinchi: Concur.
Sebastian
@Bill Arnold:
By God, it would quiet the pandemonium.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
My bet is some Russian stable genius in the Kremlin wants a heroic last stand in Their Totally NOT Gay and 100% Russian NEVER was Ukrainian Kherson as modern a Stalingrad, just like in the movies, and ordered the Russian Army to do that, so local commander is using his most expendable troops to do this stupid thing.
Cameron
@bbleh: No, I won’t roll, Jordan, roll. Will try the brewers’ yeast: confess I’ve only consumed it through finished products for about the last 55+ years.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Incidentally, blowing the dam, or say, setting off a nuke in Kherson, destroy the aqueduct that’s the main water source for Crimea. You know, the very thing that’s one of the key Russian objectives in this war?
Jay
@Benno:
The Vatnik’s arn’t retreating from Kherson, they are pulling out the Quislings, the Carpet Bagger “Administrators”, high mucky-mucks in the Security Forces and filling the vacancies in Kherson with future Sunflowers.
The Ukrainian Military, once they edge in on the suburbs, they don’t have to take and clear Kherson, they control all access, all supply routes, all routes for reinforcement. They just have to sit on the edges, wait until the “Mobliks” and “Orc’s” get tired of being wet, cold, hungry, out of ammo while being shelled and droned, wait for them to surrender.
bbleh
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: have read elsewhere that it is currently either partially or entirely nonoperative. And I gotta say, I just don’t see it as a major strategic consideration. I don’t think Ukraine would see it as a vital asset (not least because I don’t think they control it now anyway), nor do I think Russia would go out of their way to preserve it. Crimea DOES need a water source, but even if there’s blockage/damage, the canal ain’t goin’ nowhere, and I can’t see either side surrendering advantage for its sake. (But wadda I know?)
bbleh
@Jay: alas, there it is. The best that can be hoped for is starvation of the city.
Can’t someone just feed Vova some polonium tea?
Jay
@Urza:
Ultra Nationalists formed the core of “hard men” of Maiden. Yes, some were neo-Nazis of various forms, some were soccer hooligans. They were willing to defend Ukraine, and at the time, the Ukrainian Military was not in good shape. Azov and others, formed Militia’s outside of the Ukrainian Military, because the Ukraine Military had no means at the time to incorporate them.
During the First Russian Invasion, the “Ultra’s” despite being poorly armed and barely trained, were some of the most effective units with no quit in them.
Now they are part of the Ukraine Military, are well trained, better armed and still some of the most effective units Ukraine has.
It’s typical Russian Disinfo, taking a tiny seed of truth, strip it of context, and through repetition, trolls, etc., turning it into Kudzu consuming the fringers and morons.
Jay
@bbleh:
The city does not need to be “starved out”. Unlike Stalingrad, there are no Disipline troops keeping the Mobliks in line, by shooting them, they are too valuable and have been pulled back across the river.
Another Scott
Reuters: CDC Director Walensky tests positive for COVID, experiencing mild symptoms.
:-/
Germany was having a big wave of infections a few weeks ago…
That reminds me – early on there were fears that the war was going to make COVID transmission much worse in Ukraine (and russia). I’m sure there are much more pressing issues, but COVID isn’t over and that is yet another area where Ukraine needs our help.
Grr…,
Scott.
Andrya
I have an ignorant question for anyone more knowledgeable. Does Crimea really need water from the canal? At least in the long term? According to Scientific American (link) Israel (obviously in a very dry environment) gets more than half its water from desalinization- and the Israelis have made some technical breakthroughs that make desalinization much easier. Plus, the salt content of the Black Sea is about half that of the Mediterranean. Couldn’t Crimea (whoever controls it, please let it be Ukraine) get a lot of water from desalinization?
Or is the problem that, under russian control, all the parts for a desalinization plant would be stolen by people in the supply chain?
I live in California under severe drought/water use restrictions. I’ve been thinking that California also should invest in desalinization so I can water my yard…
Yutsano
@Andrya: A desalination plant is a massive infrastructure undertaking. Crimea had sources of water that would have made such a plant unnecessary. So most likely no one thought of it. Trying to build one now definitely won’t work. They take years to come online.
Link
Andrya
@Yutsano: Thanks! Still no reason California shouldn’t do it, though…
Villago Delenda Est
@Bill Arnold: Can we start with the domestic to the USA ones? Plenty of targets at Faux Noise.
Villago Delenda Est
So, the Glemm Greenwald technique. Also, too, Noam Chomsky.
Alison Rose
@Andrya: It’s in the works!
It’ll take a few years, but it’s happening.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: I think it’s very likely that Ukrainian artillery will soon start targeting every ferry crossing. I’m surprised that they haven’t started mining the river yet, but that could begin very soon as well. Once there’s no arguable civilian cross-river movement — or after a Ukrainian fair-warning declaration of embargo on river crossing, they might as well snap shut the bear trap for good.
The thing to keep in mind that will be different next week from this week is video and interviews of thousands of Russian POWs being herded into internment camps. Which is going to put an entirely different light on the Russian depopulatios and abductions of Ukrainian citizens.
OverTwistWillie
Willard: I don’t see any method at all, sir.
Chetan Murthy
I’m not saying anything new here, but: it’s breathtaking, watching as top Russian commentators and leaders of their information ministries just strip away any pretense that they’re not about just imperial expansion and genocide. I mean, just breathtaking. Even in the US, the nuts like the Coultergeist were definitely fringe players (with their “kill their men and forcibly convert their women and children” shit). But it seems like the leadership in Russia is parading across the TV screen saying this shit.
Unless they really do succeed (and move on to greater conquests), how do they come back from this? All their neighbors will remember this for decades.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
There are reports of Russian soldiers donning civilian clothes., sometimes even with tags on, to prevent the Ukrainians from shelling them. The Russians would immediately use it for propaganda and outrage.
bjacques
Democrats would be best advised to take the slug of several months’ worth of Ukraine aid up front. If McCarthy becomes Speaker, he may want to serve up some shitty budget deals but, like Boehner and Ryan before him, working under the Hastert Rule, he won’t be able deliver on them.
O’Hanlon must be several kinds of idiot not to realize how worthless Republican promises really are—especially in the last few months when pundits like him reassured the public on abortion, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid as the GOP fell over itself to abolish the one and gut the others. That’s a breathtaking level of criminal irresponsibility in a think tank intern, let alone a Senior Fellow.
bjacques
I wanted to add: if the Kadyrovite NKVD pull out of Kherson (were they ever there?) along with the officers, where’s the mobiks’ motivation not to surrender?
Geminid
I found this Kyiv Post article through a link on @RachelBitecofer’s timeline.
From the Kyiv Post October 20 2022:
The hackers say they extracted data from Technoserve and other Russian entities. Brothers Alexsei and Dmitri Ananyin own Technoserve; it is an important Russian security contractor and reportedly owns a bank used for many military-related transactions.
The NRA material has not yet been confirmed as accurate:
Carlo Graziani
@Sebastian: Costs and benefits. It’s the endgame. Particularly now that the Russians have declared the forcible evacuation of Kherson essentially complete, and have thus deliberately created a killing zone. A declaration of embargo on crossings until further notice, with PSAs proclaiming as much to civilians, would more than satisfy the requirements of proper conduct of war in civilian-inhabited areas.
way2blue
@Andrya: via Mr Google:
How many desalination plants exist in California?
12 existing desalination facilities
There are 12 existing desalination facilities throughout California, according to the state’s Water Resources Control Board, including the Carlsbad desalination project in San Diego County, which is the largest desalination plant in the western hemisphere and produces three million gallons of drinking water each day.
Andrya
Thanks to everyone who educated me about desalinization.
Why didn’t I know, living in California, that California has desalinization plants? They all serve mid or southern California and I live in northern California. I have never lived in a water district that gets any water from desalinization. I think that’s because our water planning is stuck in the past- northern California used to get loads of winter rain & snowpack, now we don’t. Southern California has always been a desert.