I did some poking around and the most recent news I’ve seen about yesterday’s Ukrainian grain convoy is a day old.
However, they put a second one afloat today:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1587391553433206784
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, I continued our diplomatic activity so that the world reacts strongly to another Russian escalation, to the terror against our energy facilities, and to Russia’s attempt to exacerbate the food crisis again.
I had a call with French President Emmanuel Macron. I thanked him for the support already provided and informed him about our urgent needs, primarily in defense. There must be an air shield for Ukraine. Today it was clearly said. We discussed with Emmanuel very specific projects both to strengthen our defense and to rebuild the destroyed facilities.
The bet of terrorists for the winter is completely transparent to everyone, and this challenge should be viewed precisely as a challenge to all of Europe. Moscow will present any winter difficulties in its propaganda as alleged proof of the failure of a united Europe. Therefore, together we must prove to the terrorists that failure is a word about them, not about Europe.
We agreed to hold two very important events. The first is in December in France. The subject covers all the challenges of winter: from energy to finance, from weapons to protecting the sky. And the second event is to convene the business of France and help Ukraine.
We talked with President Macron about the situation with our food exports. These days, the movement of ships with Ukrainian agricultural products has continued, primarily thanks to the principles of the partners, namely the UN and Türkiye, which do not accept Russian efforts to destroy the grain agreement.
But the grain corridor needs reliable and long-term protection. Russia should clearly know that it will receive a tough response from the world to any steps that disrupt our food exports. This is literally a matter of life for tens of millions of people.
In particular, I talked about this with the Prime Minister of Cambodia today. This country now holds the presidency of ASEAN, one of the most powerful world associations. That’s more than 600 million people in ten countries. And for each of these countries, the food crisis is a real threat to national security. If food prices rise due to Russian aggression, if there is a deficit in the food market, this will inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences in most ASEAN countries, as well as in other regions of the world. Therefore, pressure on Russia for the sake of guarantees of food security is now needed from everyone – and from Asian countries as well. We work for this.
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson visited Kyiv today. She helped us a lot in the process of Ukraine’s accession to the pan-European power grid. This is what significantly strengthened Ukraine. And now we heard the necessary signals of support from the European Commissioner. We discussed the initiative to create such a format, which, like a military “Ramstein”, will work for the sake of our common security, but precisely in the energy sphere. Something like an “energy Ramstein” – funds, technical support, transformers, generators, energy carriers – this is what is vitally necessary for our defense.
Assistance to specific cities and communities was also discussed. Such as Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Kharkiv and others, which are subjected to constant Russian terror – literally every day and every night.
I informed the European Commissioner about the liquidation of the consequences of yesterday’s massive Russian attack on our energy sector. About our needs due to such strikes. As a result of the visit, we have many working agreements.
As of now, we can report that the technical possibility of water supply has already been restored for all consumers in Ukraine. For most, it is also technically possible to supply electricity. Stabilizing blackouts continue in nine regions of Ukraine. Energy workers and local authorities are doing everything to reduce the time of blackouts.
It should not be forgotten that restoration work continues without a break in the territories that were liberated from the occupiers: in the Kharkiv region, in Donbas, in the south of the country. For example, gas supply has already been restored for more than 20,000 consumers in liberated areas of the Kharkiv region. Heat supply systems are being restored in Vovchansk, Balakliya and other cities.
We will do everything to give people electricity and heat this winter. But we must understand that Russia will do everything to destroy the normality of life.
They do not care about the cost of energy terror. If you look at the cost of yesterday’s Russian attack alone, the missiles and drones used cost Russia the equivalent of more than 2,300,000 average Russian old-age pensions. And that’s one attack! Monthly incomes of 2,300,000 Russian pensioners… Instead of overcoming poverty in their country, the Russian leadership spends everything to avoid admitting a historical mistake they made with this war against Ukraine.
They are hopeless on the battlefield. Ukrainian warriors have already proved it. But it takes time, it takes effort, it takes patience to prove that even the hope for winter will not come true for Russian terrorists. I’m sure we’ll get through it.
I thank everyone who helps Ukraine!
Glory to each and every one who works to bring our victory closer! Glory to all our warriors who are holding their positions, no matter how difficult it may be, and are gradually liberating our land!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the latest British MOD assessment, with imagery!
Here’s some more info about winter gear:
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1587504887138603013?cxt=HHwWisC-0ZXS-YcsAAAA
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1587579317827125249?cxt=HHwWgoC-vc2-m4gsAAAA
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1587531771540897795?cxt=HHwWhoC8hYbvhYgsAAAA
There’s a solution to this problem: ATACMS! There’s another solution to this problem: interdict the shipments in transit. If the Iranians are sending them by sea, divert the ships. If they are sending them by plane, force the planes to land. Then inspect the ships and the planes and seize the weaponry. Do it all on camera with the photo and video journalists present. This is not rocket science. It is stopping the shipment of rockets science!
The Ukrainians struck deep into Russia hitting the military airfield in Pskov:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1587340780019990528?cxt=HHwWgICqqfCBr4csAAAA
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1587435427723714561
Here’s the statement from the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
Two Attack Helicopters Were Destroyed and Two More Significantly Damaged at Airfield in pskov Oblast
October 31, 2022
A powerful explosion took place at the “Veretie” Air Force base of russian armed forces (pskov oblast, ostriv-5) on the night of October 31. Through the mining, two russian Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters and one МІ-28Н were completely destroyed, two more were significantly damaged. As a result of the explosion, the wreckages of the helicopters were scattered in a radius of 200 meters.
Details regarding the destruction of other equipment and the deaths of personnel are being confirmed.
In order to eliminate the consequences of the explosions, as well as to “search for sabotage groups”, the personnel of the military unit were put on alert. Investigative actions are underway in the military unit.
Ka-52 “Alligator” (“Hokum B” according to the NATO classification) is a Russian-made intelligence and attack helicopter. The cost is about $16 million.
Attack helicopter MI-28N “Night Hunter” is a modified version of the basic Mi-28. It is effectively used at night time. It is designed for fire resistance against tanks and other armoured vehicles, as well as low-speed air targets and manpower. The estimated cost of the modified version is $16-18 million.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1587534513684578305?cxt=HHwWgoC8zdSOh4gsAAAA
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new tweets on Patron’s official account today, but the folks who run it did retweet this:
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1586680358338236419?cxt=HHwWhsC4raPYgoUsAAAA
There is a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns А можливо це був хтось з моїх підписників?😁 #песпатрон
The caption machine translates as:
Or maybe it was one of my followers?😁#PatrontheDog
Open thread!
Martin
Any thoughts on the US sending additional US weapon monitors to Ukraine? This doesn’t strike me as a move because we distrust Ukraine, but because we have some interest in having more US eyes on the ground. Any chance these inspectors have particular expertise in using these weapons and how best to utilize them?
Alison Rose
I really want those grain ships to fly Ukrainian flags reading “LOL fuck you, putin” on them.
Re: ATACMS — has there been any public shift at all in the administration’s stance on this? Or are they still firmly in the “Oh heavens no, we couldn’t possibly” camp? Because like…………I don’t get it.
This is another fun Ukrainian Twitter account to follow…that is, if you’re staying on the site now that Musk and his minions are rolling around in it like pigs in shit.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Carlo Graziani
If it should turn out thatvthose F-15C’s that just disappeared from Okinawa reappear in Ukraine, it could signal a rethink by the Biden administration concerning the proper territorial scope of rules of engagement. ATACMS might then be on the table.
bbleh
@Alison Rose: Lol I would say in effect they already are. And certainly wouldn’t suggest that Ukraine (et al) should have done anything any differently.
I just reeely hope the rat in the corner learned from his many years in the KGB snakepit how to keep cool, cut losses, etc.
Tony G
Great news about the second grain convoy! This is a very smart move by the Ukrainian leadership. Unlike Putin, the Ukrainian leaders are smart enough to understand the modern world, in which information spreads around the world instantly. I imagine that most Russians probably don’t know about these grain convoys — but most of the rest of the world knows. And if Putin orders an attack on these convoys then most of the rest of the world will see that he’s destroying food that’s desperately needed around the world. Maybe the people who really run Russia will decide that he’s not good for business and dispose of him.
Gin & Tonic
@Tony G: However, I’ve seen reports that tomorrow’s scheduled shipments are on hold. Don’t know why.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: I don’t think, other than the handful of uniformed personnel assigned to the embassy, that the administration wants any uniformed personnel in Ukraine right now.
oldster
No official confirmation of damage to the Admiral Makarov. But then, it also took a few days for a clear picture to emerge after the Moskva was struck. I hope the outcome will be similar!
I agree with you that the US should attempt to prevent the flow of arms from Iran to Russia. Ideally, we would do it with authorization from the UN, in light of the sanctions against Iran. But effective functioning of the UN is impossible right now, because of the terrorists on the Security Council.
Where can the US force down an Iranian plane? Not in Iranian airspace. Not in Russian airspace. The remaining options are the countries on either side of the Caspian Sea. Might be difficult to persuade any of them to give Russia a black eye in such a public manner.
I’d like to see it happen, but it will not be easy. Perhaps if a Predator or Reaper just happens to find itself in the area, it could fire a missile and shot the thing out of the sky. But that comes very close to declaration of war, and Biden — perhaps wisely — will not go there yet.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It might have to do with the capacity of the UN and Turkish inspectors to process what’s already underway when it makes it to port.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: I’ve read that the UN wants a moment to try and pull Russia back into the deal.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Ukrinform is saying it’s a joint decision of Ukraine, Türkiye and the UN, so that’s a logical conclusion.
Hkedi
Although it would be great to be able to prevent the flow of arms between Iran and Russia, they have a secure shipping lane on the Caspian sea. Unless Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan have the means or the will to blockade, but I kinda doubt that.
YY_Sima Qian
Base security in Russia must be terrible! This is really turning into a Russo-Japanese War moment, only in that war it was Japan that attacked w/o warning or declaration of war.
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: What flags are the convoy using? Wouldn’t be Ukraine, obviously. But are we talking seriously neutral that either could jump in hard or would make others jump in hard on their behalf, or neutral mercenaries no one will miss?
lashonharangue
@Adam L Silverman: If I read the map correctly, Pskov is just east of Estonia. Would Ukraine do this without the tacit approval of the Estonian government? If the Estonians were okay with this, what do you think their calculation was regarding how it would be viewed by Putin (or maybe the people who might replace him)?
Chetan Murthy
@lashonharangue: I’m sure the leaders of CEE countries have had a bellyful of RU saboteurs destroying facilities, firebombing, etc, in their countries, and might not mind a bit of [obvs. plausibly deniable] turnabout.
I remember incidents in Czechia, also more recently Bulgaria. I’m sure there’s a ton more.
lashonharangue
@Chetan Murthy: Then the video serves the purpose of making it clear that it was Ukraine and not a NATO country that did it.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Yeah. It’s interesting to see how deeply the pure nihilism of Putinistic ideology has corrupted and corroded all patriotic sense of duty in Russia.
It really doesn’t capture the nature of the phenomenon to merely say that “Russia is very corrupt.” The sheer kleptocratic nature of Russian government, starting with the astounding example of monetization of government position set by Putin himself, totally eclipses the ideological justification of Putinism and its patriotic unifying potential. Why should any colonel in charge of base security do his duty, rather than sell gasoline or travel at government expense, when all his superiors are setting the exact same example, and aspiring to better with the next promotion?
This fish rotted at the head, in a way that despotic states with “normal” levels of corruption (such as Iran) never did. There is no fix for what ails them.
Ken
Darth Vader’s “I am altering the deal” isn’t nearly as impressive when Lando Calrissian just says “whatever, dude, we’ll keep shipping grain anyway.”
oldgold
This is interesting:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with American officials that suggests Iran could be preparing for an imminent attack on the kingdom, three U.S. officials said Tuesday.
The heightened concerns about a potential attack on Saudi Arabia as the Biden administration is criticizing Tehran for its crackdown on widespread protests and condemning it for sending hundreds of drones — as well as technical support — to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine.
“We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis,” the National Security Council said in a statement. “We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region.”
Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Nor did Iran’s mission to the United Nations.
One of the officials who confirmed the intelligence sharing described it as a credible threat of an attack “soon or within 48 hours.” No U.S. embassy or consulate in the region has issued alerts or guidance to Americans in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere in the Middle East based on the intelligence. The officials were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Martin
@oldgold: Sounds like lobbying, tbh.
sanjeevs
Not sure if this was posted before but a few days ago the FT published an investigation of a massive Russian scheme to sell stolen Ukrainian grain.
Looks like Putin managed to fuck that up.
How Russia secretly takes grain from occupied Ukraine | Financial Times (ft.com)
Grumpy Old Railroader
Adam I know your plate is full. I have been looking at the Ethnic Republics of the Russian Federation and indigenous peoples. There is not a lot of information but all indications are growing dissatisfaction with the Russian yoke.
*Warning* from Politico:
It is very hard to find information about what is actually going on inside the far flung Russian Federation but other than some Google research, not much can be discovered. And then there are reports of China making lots of contact with Indigenous People of the Arctic Circle. What’s with that?
RaflW
@Martin: Yeah, the Saudis understand that at least some of us in the US are sick and f’ing tired of their behavior and don’t favor continued arms sales to them.
oldgold
@RaflW: Seems to me it may offer us an opportunity.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
That is quite the contrast; the Russia using expensive high end weapons like that Killjoy to blow up a play grounds while the UA is doing commando mission to torch whole airfields worth of Russian military aviation.
Chetan Murthy
@RaflW: Whoever rules that dusty desert is gonna have to sell oil, and to the West. Fuck ’em, let Iran run the place: from recent history, it doesn’t seem like they’d be any more inimical to Western priorities, between 9/11, funding Al Quaeda, and this latest bullshit about not supporting our foreign policy.
I want to see us pull our troops out, stop supporting their damn war in Yemen. Let the fucking Saudis see how well they get along with their neighbors without us to back ’em up. The fucknuggets.
ETA: neglected to mention their spreading their damned Wahhabism all over the damn world.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, this feels more Putin and his pals are using Oceania in 1984 as a how to guide. They’ve apparently gaslighted themselves for so long they don’t know what is real now.
The Pale Scot
@Martin:
The Saud family is scum from top to bottom, and should be eliminated with extreme prejudice. The Persians should have been our natural allies, but the brits fucked up and screamed COMMIES!! when they refused to give Iran the same deal that the US gave SA for oil,
Amir Khalid
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
That’s what has surprised me the most about how Russia is fighting this war: the squandering of scarce or even irreplaceable resources on targets of no military value. It seems implausibly dumb; if I saw an army doing this in a movie, I would have trouble suspending my disbelief.
Nora Lenderbee
SA vs. Iran? I’m rooting for injuries. (Metaphorically only. I’m absolutely not rooting for war.)
cbear
@oldgold: yeah, the opportunity I see starts with us charging the Saudis 100,000 barrels of oil per day of US military assistence in their dispute with Iran. Not including equipment.
Oh, and if they need parts for those F-16’s we sold them– let’s start at a 1000 barrels of oil PER PIECE!
Fuck em.
Amir Khalid
@The Pale Scot:
I concur.
I disagree. The House of Saud needs to be brought down for the good of people in that country, and each of its princes should pay for his own crimes. But it’s wrong to promote murder, even as hyperbole.
cbear
@oldgold: forgive me if my previous comment seemed dismissive of your well-reasoned thoughts. I was just letting off some steam and didn’t mean to come off as insulting to you personally.
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: The West is rapidly decreasing its need for their dinosaur juice. Even their tricks to cut consumption to increase the price per barrel aren’t working. The House of Saud seems desperate to get that damn price up is what this smells like to me. Oh well. Muhammad bin Salman can be their last Crown Prince as far as I’m concerned. And possibly then he can be charged for his crimes.
Geminid
@Martin: Sounds to me like a possible attack on Saudi oil facilities, along the lines of the September, 2019 drone strikes on two processing plants. The Houthis claimed responsibility at the time but the drones were Iranian made and may have been fired from Yemen by Iranians.
A few weeks ago the Houthis declined to renew the ceasfire in Yemen. It had been in place since April, but the Houthis claim that continued violations by the “government” forces made the ceasefire unacceptably one-sided. They have since warned western oil companies to pull their personnel out of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The Houthies have not followed through on these implied threats and they could just be pressuring their opponent’s sponsors to agree to a more equitable ceasefire. On the other hand, their sponsor, Iran might want to indirectly aid the Russian war effort by disrupting oil supplies.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
Well there is a fix, but it requires the country to overthrow his ass. And given the history of the country that seem unlikely unless it comes from the very next level, and that level is so very close to as corrupt as the tippy top of the pyramid.
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
The point is no longer to win, vlad knows that is basically impossible, although he may never admit it to anyone, likely including himself.
His point now is the same as every other asshole dictator, if he can’t have it, no one can. He’s going to leave as big a mess as he can. He’s going to fuck up everything, take his toys and go home and pout about how much the world hates him.
bookworm1398
From what I remember hearing early in the war, the grain shipments stopped not so much due to the physical danger but because no one was willing to insure any civilian shipping in the Black Sea. When the grain deal was struck, it involved the US govt providing insurance for the shipments. I may have misunderstood things, but it seems like the grain shipments continuing means the US is continuing to promise to make whole losses to the shipowners.
Also, I don’t understand how Iran isn’t too busy right now with domestic matters to be planning an attack on Saudi
Chetan Murthy
Wow, UA killed 800 RU soldiers yesterday. Serious butcher’s bill. Good show!
twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1587726227774873601
Chetan Murthy
@bookworm1398: One way in which authoritarian states (and even democratic states) distract from domestic problems, can be to foment external threats and problems/conflicts. Not saying that that’s what’s happening here, but it’s not unknown.
Searcher
Re: Iran, is this a consequence of the US ducking up the treaty during the Trump years? If we had continued normalizing relations would we expect Iran to supply Russia, or is this unrelated?
Winston
Probably late here, but I read an article a couple days ago that our 101st Air Mobile Division has taken up a position in Romania 3 miles from their border with Ukraine and are conducting maneuvers with Romanian forces, The first time the 101st has been stationed in Europe since WW2.
Gin & Tonic
Reuters reporting that russia is back in the grain shipping deal. That really makes Vova look like a master strategist.
Chief Oshkosh
@oldgold:
Well I’m just all broke up over that. Gee, sure hope nothing bad happens to the Princes and the Priests.
Geminid
@bookworm1398: Iran can attack Saudi oil facilities at a relatively low cost to themselves. They launched a drone attack from Yemen territory in September, 2019 that damaged two oil processing facilities, with about 40 fairly cheap drones. It disrupted Saudi production temporarily.
The Houthis, who are still fighting a civil war with the nominal Yemeni government, took full credit for the attack, saying it was retaliation for Saudi attacks on them. Iran supplied the drones, though and almost certainly authorized their use. Smaller drone attacks on oil facilities in S.A. and the UAE were made last winter. That was before the UN brokered a ceasefire in April that held until the Houthis refused to renew it last month.
Geminid
@Searcher: We weren’t exactly normalizing relations with Iran with the JCPOA. It’s purpose was to mitigate the risk of a nuclear armed Iran by limiting its production of enriched uranium. The sanctions imposed by Trump cost Iran a lot of oil revenue, but this wave of protests is primarily over the repressive nature of the Islamic Republic, and economic distress seems to be a secondary issue.
While the JCPOA was in effect there was no movement by the Iranian government towards liberalization. The regime has a monopoly on power by virtue of its control on who can run for election, and clerical bodies that can veto decisions by the civil government. They were not about to give up that monopoly in exchange for better relations with the West.
Carlo Graziani
@Yutsano:
<pedant> It’s “prehistoric forest vegetation juice”</pedant>
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: If that’s not a data processing error, the largest part may correspond to a few large engagements, most likely near Kherson. It would be interesting to look for corresponding intense artillery fires, Telegram chatter etc.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: However, w/ JCPOA in place Iran would have something to lose, particularly wrt to goodwill of the EU. That might have deterred them from selling arms to Russia.
Right now, they have little to lose.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I was thinking more of Iran’s domestic unrest. Yes, if the JCPOA was still in effect they might not have made these weapons sales.
There are reports that Ukrainian officials say Iran is shipping 400 more drones to Russia. They’ll be shipped across the Caspian Sea to Astrakhan, painted with Russian markings, and then sent to the war zone.
As of yet, the short range missiles Iran is reported to be providing Russia have yet to used.
J R in WV
I miss the short videos of tank turrets flying out of an orange cloud of exploding tank, sometimes hundreds of meters into the air. Does that make me a bad person?
We voted early yesterday afternoon — straight Democratic, and against all 4 proposed constitutional amendments. In favor of the small tax levy for the Board of Ed. Went very smoothly, Wife was able to sit in a chair while voting, which was nice for her. There had been ~900 early voters according to the staff at the courthouse voting location. Lots for our small rural county