It’s been a very, very, very, very long day. I’m fried. So this will be a brief update.
I do want to start with one correction from last night. One of the news reports I excerpted and referenced in regards to Erdogan’s position regarding Sweden’s ascension to NATO referenced F-16s. One of you all in comments pointed out that should be F-35s. My understanding is that we took the F-35s off the table when Erdogan decided to buy the S-400 surface to air missile system from Russia. Regardless, he wants US fighter jets, so if its F-35s, then I apologize for the error last night.
Also, my shirt from St. Javelin arrived. I’ll have to take some pics of it and the hockey jersey and post them. Anyhow, and again, if any of you all are Fellas and would be willing to reach out to the forgers for me, shoot me an email. I’ve made several purchases from St. Javelin and since I don’t have a Twitter account and therefore don’t tweet, I have no way of reaching out myself. Thanks in advance!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I am on a working trip all day – first to Mykolaiv, then to Odesa.
Meeting and negotiations with the Danish delegation – with Prime Minister Frederiksen, representatives of the coalition of parties. In particular, with the Danish Minister of Defense and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. They are part of the delegation.
We talked in great detail about Ukraine’s defense needs. About what can help us liberate our territory – our south, our east.
And about our needs in the context of rebuilding Ukraine.
Mykolaiv is a city the reconstruction of which Denmark has taken patronage over. There is a need for projects in the energy sector, infrastructure, social sphere, and production.
An especially sensitive issue for Mykolaiv is water purification and restoration of normal water supply, which was destroyed by the Russian occupiers. There is already a corresponding project with the participation of Denmark, the implementation of which has already begun.
But much more needs to be done to restore and modernize what is the basis of our people’s lives.
Today in Mykolaiv, we visited a hospital where our warriors are being saved after wounds. We thanked the doctors and nurses. We supported our defenders.
This hospital is just one of those examples where modernization and reconstruction are critical.
And I want to thank Denmark, personally Mrs. Prime Minister and other representatives of the Danish Government for their willingness to help Ukraine.
For the willingness to support until the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and until the complete reconstruction of everything necessary for life.
This is the fundamental meaning of our cooperation with partners.
Russian terror must lose everywhere and in everything – both on the battlefield and in the absence of ruins in our country – so that we can rebuild everything and thus prove that freedom is stronger.
Today in Odesa, we spoke in detail about our security and humanitarian initiatives.
Denmark, in particular, has supported our Black Sea export initiative and joined the Grain from Ukraine program.
The fact that we have made substantial progress on food security proves that we can make progress on the other points of our Peace Formula as well. Today we discussed what exactly Denmark’s participation in the implementation of the points of the Peace Formula could be.
Of course, I thanked Denmark for their defense support, for significantly strengthening our artillery, for their willingness to join the tank coalition.
Today we discussed what else we can do to reinforce Ukrainian warriors.
We are also coordinating our actions to strengthen sanctions against Russia. I have also called on Denmark to join our efforts to protect sports structures and the international Olympic movement from discrediting by the attempts of certain representatives of the sports bureaucracy to allow Russian athletes to participate in international competitions.
Of course, I paid special attention to the internal situation in the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions, holding relevant meetings with the military and regional leadership.
It is not only about security, although the security of our south is the first priority, but also about the social situation in the regions, about the economic opportunities available.
By the way, I am grateful to all entrepreneurs and employers in Mykolaiv, Odesa, other cities and communities who, despite everything, keep jobs and pay salaries and taxes. This is your concrete and significant contribution to our country’s ability to defend itself.
Our task to endure is a common task. It is the task of the Defense and Security Forces, our entire state, business, and everyone who works for Ukraine’s victory.
Thank you to everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who is helping! Thank you to everyone who is defending Odesa, who is defending Mykolaiv, our entire south and all of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
⚡️Prominent 24-year-old pilot killed on combat mission in Donbas.
The 299th tactical aviation brigade announced that it had lost one of its best officers, Major Danylo Murashko. His plane was shot down by a Russian fighter on Jan. 27.
📷299th tactical aviation brigade/Facebook pic.twitter.com/zKViufje1e
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 30, 2023
From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)
The 299th tactical aviation brigade, named after Lieutenant General Vasyl Nikiforov, announced on Jan. 30 that it had lost one of its best officers, 24-year-old Major Danylo Murashko.
The pilot was killed while on a combat mission in the east of Ukraine on Jan. 27. His plane was shot down by a Russian fighter.
According to the brigade, Murashko tried to divert his aircraft so that it didn’t fall on residential buildings in the town of Shabelkivka, Donetsk Oblast. The effort cost him time and made him fly lower, which is why he could not eject safely in the end. Murashko “died like a hero,” the brigade said.
According to the brigade, Murashko went on 141 sorties since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24. He destroyed about 70 Russian armored vehicles, more than 80 cars, and about 30 fuel tanks, and killed about 600 Russian soldiers.
Murashko was awarded the title of the Hero of Ukraine posthumously.
The aviator’s verse from the Navy hymn:
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
Speaking of The Kyiv Independent, they made their goal!
Wow, @KyivIndependent has made it!
We’re a small media outlet from Ukraine that has outstanding popular support from readers around the world.https://t.co/ddIRInLAgC pic.twitter.com/pKh88Pa1lU— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 30, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:
KREMINNA AXIS /1350 UTC 30 JAN/ A growing concentration of RU forces are centered at Kreminna. These RU are assessed to be preparing offensive ops, likely a thrust west on the O-0528 HWY axis. The goal would appear to be the capture of Dibrova, Zarichne and ultimately Lyman. pic.twitter.com/b2t0st16yX
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 30, 2023
BAKHMUT /2040 UTC 30 JAN/ RU units have made significant progress in isolating Bakhmut. Advancing from Soledar, RU forces have crossed the T-05-13 HWY north of Blahodatne. This salient has severed Bakhmut’s principal north-south Line of Communications & Supply (LOCS). pic.twitter.com/nl8KzCQJdP
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 30, 2023
Vuldehar and Avdiivka:
Girkin's update this morning indicates that Russians are not seeing any major success in Vuhledar – the city is heavily defended, and attacking it is very disadvantageous for Wagner. Same with the south of Avdiivka, Russian advance is stalling.https://t.co/HHrAaNJWFh pic.twitter.com/hRE2foymwe
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 30, 2023
Kharkiv:
Russian missile hit a residential building in Kharkiv city center at 11 pm. Massive explosion made me jump out of the bed. The building is heavily damaged and on fire. There are reports of dead and wounded. Bloody terrorists. pic.twitter.com/n3HWcl3T9R
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 29, 2023
Another day, another terrorist attack against civilians, in Kharkiv. russia has impunity to continue their massive terrorism while the world leaders and experts seriously discuss peace deals, off-ramps and how to end the war without russia losing
Photo Anna Chernenko pic.twitter.com/rNRtO1T5AE— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) January 30, 2023
Kherson:
Dreadful massive shelling of Kherson. Three people killed and six injured. Kherson Regional Hospital was shelled twice. You won’t break us. pic.twitter.com/r9A9AXqvDU
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 29, 2023
Moscow:
"Nothing should be considered civilian infrastructure during the war, even hospitals. Anything can be struck" pic.twitter.com/6nkBjAqOgP
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 30, 2023
He seems nice…
DC:
Answering my question "Will the US provide F-16s to Ukraine?" @POTUS said "No".
— Yulya Yarmolenko (@yu_yarmolenko) January 30, 2023
Reporter: "Will the United States provide F-16s to Ukraine"?
Biden: "No." pic.twitter.com/FtSq2EP099
— Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) January 30, 2023
Two quick points on this. The first is that two weeks ago we weren’t going to send Abrams tanks. The second is that this is really the wrong question to ask. The question is whether we will prevent our NATO allies from transferring their F-16s to Ukraine. That question was not asked and it has not been answered.
Australia and France via The Australian Broadcasting Network:
Australia has partnered with France to supply Ukraine with 155-millimetre artillery shells, Defence Minister Richard Marles and his counterpart Sebastien Lecornu have announced.
“Several thousand 155mm shells will be manufactured jointly” by French arms supplier Nexter, France’s Mr Lecornu said, while Mr Marles said the plan would come with a “multi-million-dollar” price tag.
The ammunition supplies fit into “the ongoing level of support both France and Australia are providing Ukraine to make sure Ukraine is able to stay in this conflict and … see it concluded on its own terms,” Mr Marles added.
Mr Lecornu said the aid would be “significant” and “an effort that will be kept up over time”, with the first deliveries slated for the first quarter of 2023.
Mr Marles said there were “some unique capabilities that exist in Australia and some synergies that can be achieved by Australia and France working together” to manufacture the shells.
While Nexter will carry out the manufacturing, Australia will supply gunpowder, Mr Lecornu said.
The two defence ministers met alongside both countries’ foreign ministers, Catherine Colonna and Penny Wong, as France and Australia look to relaunch cooperation.
Much more at the link!
Before we finish up, I just want to briefly respond to – yeah, yeah, brief post that isn’t, briefly respond that won’t be… – to a comment from YY_Sima Qian from last night:
We talked about dissolution of the imperial entity of Russia. I have always thought (& still do) that it is extraordinarily dangerous for outsiders to try to engineer such an outcome. The longer the war goes on, the more likely this will precisely be that outcome even w/o outside interference. The longer the war goes on, the more likely this will be the outcome even if China/US/EU try to keep the Russian Federation whole. The centrifugal forces could prove too strong. I know many will welcome such a development. I am much more torn. I expect the process to be extremely ugly, will likely spill over one way or another into post-war Ukraine (& the Baltic States), & pose its own threat to the world.
Putin’s only out is wearing down Ukraine enough that Ukraine sues for peace on terms that allow him to keep at least some of the gains from the current invasion (such as the land corridor to Crimea). Ukraine isn’t going to give him that out, certainly not any time soon (probably not ever). Even if there is a negotiated peace that allows Putin to plausibly spin as a victory to his domestic audiences, he would still need at least the EU to substantially ease sanctions to mitigate the high risk of ultimate disintegration. The EU may not give him that out at least for some time even after the peace settlement. The Russian Federation’s out is a quick defeat in Ukraine, throw out Putin, withdrawal to lines of control that Ukraine is willing to tolerate, then we will likely significant pressure for sanctions to be eased quickly even if the replacements are not much more unpalatable.
There’s two parts here and I want to start with the second one in the second paragraph. If Putin goes the possible replacements – Patrushev, Prigozhin, someone not really on our radar – are all worse. They won’t necessarily withdraw to a line of control. And if they do, they won’t do it to one that Ukraine would be able to agree to. For Ukraine it is all or nothing. Every bit of occupied Ukraine including Crimea is what they want back. And they’ve made it clear they’re willing to die trying to achieve that goal.
The other part, the first one in the first paragraph, is a major strategic concern. I’m of the professional opinion that the only way Russia holds together at this point is if it is done by force. I think the process has already begun. The periphery of Russia’s sphere of influence – Armenia, Azerbaijan, the stans – are all beginning the process of separation. I expect that the ethnic minority republics, places like Dagestan and Tyvan, will eventually begin a similar process of separation. I don’t think this can be stopped. Managed and mitigated yes, but not stopped.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron:
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Поїхав я у відрядження, називається… #песпатрон
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Open thread!
sab
I never thought I would love from a distance a Jack Russel terrier. My late lamented GSD thought they were obnoxious cheeky little assholes. But that’s what it takes to be a canine sapper.
Alison Rose
The part you bolded about Murashko made me choke up. One more example, among hundreds of thousands, of how Ukrainians are better people than the enemy.
So glad to see that the KI met their Patreon goal! Hopefully it will continue to grow.
The Prime Minister of Estonia joined some women who were weaving camouflage nets for Ukrainian soldiers. If Biden doesn’t want us to send F-16s, maybe he could knit some gloves for them or something :P
Thank you as always, Adam. You headed off my intention to tease you about the definition of “brief”.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I am just a dumb-axe brakeman but from way back here on the caboose even I know which way the train is headed
Amir Khalid
The NATO countries that want to send their old F-16s to Ukraine will also want the US to expedite shipment of their new F-35s. To my knowledge, whether the US can/will do this is another largely unasked question.
Yutsano
The real question for me is: what does the world look like after the dissolution of Peter the Great’s empire? Does Moscow lose Siberia? Does this inspire other dissolutions around the world? This could be very uncharted territory and it could happen quickly and messily. And what, honestly, could be done to mitigate the damage? I really don’t like being on the edge of so much history.
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam for the response. Mine was intended as a comment, so I was not actually expecting you to respond to it. I tend to agree w/ what you wrote. Ukraine may ultimately bargain on Crimea, or the US/EU may ultimately “encourage” Ukraine to bargain on Crimea, but the kind of scenario where this is relevant is far beyond the horizon. Certainly a disintegrating Russia would be in no position to bargain to hold Crimea, or to hold it even if Ukraine is willing to bargain it away.
However, I imagine the dynamics we are discussing is obvious to at least some of the elites in Russia. It is being held together as a war economy, which can be sustained until it suddenly cannot be. Perhaps there are less extreme Russian nationalist forces who would want to keep Russia whole, & are willing to throw out Putin & the emerging worse alternatives, & accept ignominious defeat in Ukraine, just to keep it whole. (A Navalny type of character.) Perhaps a combination of the military & parts of the siloviki (even regional governments in exchange for greater autonomy)? I know you & others had discussed how thoroughly Putin had kept the Russian military under the thumb. However, Russia is in a place that was only theoretical before. There are precedents for nationalist forces turning against internal leaders who had fanned the flames of nationalism if they are perceived to have endangered national integrity.
YY_Sima Qian
A 24 y.o. major. Wow!
YY_Sima Qian
@Yutsano: Even if the eventual new powers that be in Moscow is willing to let the other regions go w/o a fight, you can bet there will be wars over disputed territories among the newly formed entities (see Armenia-Azerbaijan), & ethnic cleansing (starting w/ the ethnic Russians in their territories). Conflicts that had been discouraged by Moscow will flare up (see Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan).
The problem w/ mitigation is that it requires coordination among the US, the EU, China & Japan, when there is zero trust between China & the US, & everybody will be rushing in to plunder the carcass & stake out advantageous positions (not necessarily via armed invasion). Most of these parties probably don’t even want to contemplate mitigation until the devolution has already started.
Then there is the matter of loose WMDs. This will be much more messy & perilous than the dissolution of the fUSSR.
Origuy
The problem with breaking up Russia is that except for the fringes, ethnic Russians are the majority in most of Siberia and the Far East. This map shows the percentage of Russians in the various regions; except for the Caucasus and Tuva, Russians are at least 20% of the population everywhere. Before the tsars and later the Communists started encouraging if not forcing migrations, most of the land east of the Urals was practically empty.
Origuy
In lighter news, someone mentioned Branson, Missouri in a previous thread, which got me thinking about comedian Yakov Smirnoff (What a country!) He immigrated to the USA in the 1970s and build his career on jokes about Russia. He’s actually Ukrainian and still has family there. He and his wife have been working to get the family out and they have a charity to support Ukrainian refugees.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: At this point, the *only* politically acceptable position in Ukraine is a return to the 1991 borders. Anything less is political suicide.
Gin & Tonic
@Origuy: Hoo, boy, that linked article … “Smirnoff immigrated to the US in the 1970s from Russia, now Ukraine.”
Hoodie
Interesting response on Biden’s part, especially in light of the Abrams tank deal. We’re sending new Abrams from the factory to Ukraine, not older ones. I wonder if a lot of older US inventory has had the crap beat out of it from years of use in the ME and because the US has a much higher training tempo than other countries. I would imagine a lot of the older US fighters (F-16, F-15, F18) have a lot of hours on them, require a ton of maintenance and may not be worth refurbing because the airframes are almost shot. What new ones that are being produced (F-16 Viper, F-15EX, SuperHornet) are earmarked for the Air Force and Navy to replace heavily used planes. The ones flown by other nations may be more gently used because they stay closer to home. Getting them to part with them also may provide more impetus for backfilling with F-35s (a program for which the US would love to get production cost down by increasing volume) and other newer aircraft.
Geminid
@Amir Khalid: The F-16s can be replaced by the new “Eurofighter”, and some will be. The F-35 looks to be a very successful fighter plane operationally, but it was somewhat of a flop in terms of affordability. Finland’s order of 60 will cost over $6 billion.
Nations will need to supplement their F-35s with less costly warplanes. For instance, Poland is in line to buy F-35s, but they have also ordered fighter jets from South Korea.
The supply of trained pilots will be a constraint, so Ukraine cannot put but so many of F-16s into service this year, it seems like if contributions are spread among several countries, that should not leave too big a void in their air forces.
Hopefully the gap can be filled by next year. I expect the manufacturers are looking at gearing up production, and seeking new orders accordingly.
dm
@Origuy: Much of the land east of the Urals is practically empty today. Less than 10% of the 146 million Russian population lives east of the Urals.
Siberia must look awfully tempting to Xi Jinping.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: Yup.
The mechanics of how they get there is still TBD, but that has to be the goal.
I think a clear-headed evaluation of VVP’s failure in the war shows that even the rationalization that they “need” Crimea (as the home of the Black Sea Fleet) is nonsensical. A strong Ukraine in NATO could sink the BSF with little trouble (witness taking out the Moskva with just 2 missiles). The port would be a sitting duck and useless to a belligerent russia.
VVP wanted to strip all of Ukraine’s control of her coast. He wanted a land bridge to Moldova. He wanted all kinds of things that he didn’t get and will never get. There’s no plausible argument that VVP should keep Crimea or that Ukraine should give russia another long-term lease to the facilities there for the BSF. That ship has sailed, and is at the bottom of the Black Sea. There’s no going back.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Geminid: Airplanes are expensive. Google tells me that a 787 is $250-$300M a piece (list, discounts probably cut that a lot).
$100M for a state-of-the-art fighter that will last, what, 20+ years?, isn’t that much.
Cheers,
Scott.
counterfactual
@Origuy: Before I gave up on Twitter, Kamil Galeev had several threads on “Russian” identity. Don’t trust surveys; history has shown that “national identity” can change quickly. There are several ethnic Russian regions that could try to break from Moscow, in particular the Russian Far East, which had a nice bilateral trade with Japan before Putin tightened things up.
counterfactual
@Hoodie: The stated reason for sending new Abrams tank is that the US will send export models without the advanced armor the US keeps for itself.
Geminid
@Another Scott: The Finns chose between the Swedish Gryppen, the Eurofighter, and the F-35, and they decided that the F-35 was worth the price.
But I did not say that $100 million for this plane is too much. I pointed out that defense budgets will not allow most countries to replace their F-16s with F-35s on a one to one basis even if Lockheed could produce them fast enough, and that many of those F-16s will be replaced with planes less costly than F-35s.
NotMax
My gob is oversmacked.
Sally
@NotMax: So Ok, you tall glass of Tang, why don’t you just do it! You know, pick up the phone to pal Putin and end it. The Nobel, sorry Noble, Peace Prize is YOURS!
jerk
Gin & Tonic
@NotMax: Yeah, his brilliant plan is cut off all aid to Ukraine so they are forced to surrender. Voila, war over.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic:
Absolutely, “at this point”. At this point, the hypothetical is moot, anyway, since no one calling the shots in Moscow is willing to negotiate an end to the war by withdrawing to pre-2022 Lines of Actual Control, let alone pre-2014 borders.
lowtechcyclist
Aren’t these two in tension with one another, though? Russia can only be held together by force, and Russia can only hold onto a piece or two of Ukraine by force. But it’s only got so much force to go around, and the longer the war goes on, the less it will have. That applies even if Putin is replaced by the reincarnation of Ivan the Terrible.
Alison Rose
@NotMax: ONE WEIRD TRICK!!!!
sdhays
@Origuy: I know very little about all of these matters, but just to note that “it’s complicated” – I recall that, I think, last year Putin locked up one of the regional governors in the far east who was personally popular and had defied Putin in a small way. There were even local protests in support of him.
sdhays
@lowtechcyclist: Indeed, and there’s definitely a risk of all of those minorities learning war the hard way in Ukraine, coming home in defeat to an economically wrecked Russia, and having a lot of time on their very angry hands.
YY_Sima Qian
@dm:
Why does this keep come up? The CCP regime can convince the Chinese population to suffer tens of thousands of casualties to “reunify” Taiwan, which has been a focus for Chinese nationalism since 1895 when the Qing Empire ceded it to the Japanese Empire (& the focus since the founding of the PRC in 1949). It will not be able to convince the Chinese population to suffer the same to “recover” Outer Manchuria, which has not been prominent in Chinese nationalist consciousness (except on the fringe). The CCP regime has not been whipping up nationalist sentiments about potentially “recovering” Outer Manchuria (just like it has not been whipping up sentiments WRT Arunachal Pradesh that is claimed by China & controlled by India). The Beiyang Government of the early Republic of China had actually sent an intervention force into the far eastern Siberia during the Russian Civil War to protect the Chinese diaspora in the region. (Imperial Japan hand done the same.) They ultimately withdrew along w/ all the other foreign intervention forces as the Reds gained superior position. Not even the ROC had laid claims to Outer Manchuria.
China, Japan, South Korea are all suffering from demographic decline, w/ single children families common (even after birth restrictions have been raised in China). There is no appetite for foreign military adventures that might shed significant blood among any of these countries. Much easier to gain leverage over the inevitably weak & unsteady new governments & make them client states, as China has essentially done w/ Laos & Cambodia.
YY_Sima Qian
@Origuy: In the regions where ethnic Russians make up only ~ 20 – 30% of the population (assuming they gain de facto or de jure independence), they will either flee to majority Russian regions, get massacred in pogroms, forced to assimilate, or are suppressed as 2nd class citizens. The wild cards are the > 90% ethnic Russian regions of Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast & Jewish Autonomous Oblast.
@counterfactual: The aforementioned 4 Krais/Oblasts are where the fear of the “Yellow Peril” is by far the strongest among the ethnic Russian population.
Adam L Silverman
@lowtechcyclist: Yep, which is a problem for Russia.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Then I must be particularly terrifying as I’m Jewish and part Asian. Someone on my maternal grandmother’s side of the family came from the east. Mongolia most likely. Before heading north to Russia over time.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian:
You are adopting a very russo-centric framing here, and I’m not sure why. Ethnic russians are a minority in Ukraine, and there they are not massacred in pogroms, forced to assimilate or suppressed as 2nd class citizens. Why are you sure it would be different in, say, an independent Dagestan or Ingushetia?
dr. luba
Patron today, short version: is complaining about Veniamin the cat, who has taken over his doggy bed with the little duckies on it, and even using his food bowl. The horror! At least he hasn’t found Patron’s duckies yet….
TheMightyTrowel
@YY_Sima Qian: “Why does this keep come up?”
I’m with you – if i were a global power looking for a cut of the resources in a shakily held and corruptly governed peripheral zone, I’d be taking those local politians to fancy dinners, flying them to see horse races, and then getting sweetheart export and manufacturing deals rather rather than spending blood, money and political capital to invade and rule. Basically no cost at all and no need for bloodshed. If there’s anything that living in Australia teaches you it’s that politicians can be bought for way less money than you’d expect.
dr. luba
Pavolo Vyshebaba, a Ukrainian poet, shared himself reading this poem on FB yesterday:
Моє покоління
Історія в книгах довга, наживо — минає стрімко,
Моє покоління пише сльозами й вогнем сторінку.
До біса маневрів список, дивіться, які ми вперті,
Дивіться, як сміємося прямо в обличчя смерті.
Дивіться на наші танці з руйновищ, постів, окопів,
Над головами — уламки, з-під ніг вилітає попіл,
Контемпорарі в підвалах для тих, хто лихої вдачі,
Моє покоління плаче так, щоб ніхто не бачив.
Якщо би всю сіль з копалин, жбурнути в страждання світу,
То більшість розчинилась у наших ранах без сліду.
Бо з кожним життям навколо недоля і доля спільна,
Прислухайтесь — у полоні ворожому чутно співи.
За мить як піти в атаку, ми молимось про спасіння,
Якщо Бог і є, він носить форму мого покоління.
Чи прийме він нас, хто знає — святих серед нас немає,
Дивіться, як ми лютуєм, як пристрасно ми кохаєм.
Коли чорна тінь повстала від Маріка до Говерли,
Ми билися як востаннє, найкращі із нас померли.
Якщо, як і ми, уголос, ти весело й непохитно
Читаєш це українською, значить ми бились гідно.
My generation
History in books is long, in real life it passes quickly,
My generation writes on its pages with tears and fire.
To hell with the list of maneuvers, look how stubborn we are,
Look at us laughing in the face of death.
Watch us dance from the ruins, the posts, the trenches,
Debris above our heads, ashes flying from under our feet,
Contemporary dance in basements for those who are of a bitter nature,
My generation cries so that no one sees.
If all the salt in the world’s mines were thrown into the suffering of the world,
Most of it would dissolve into our wounds without a trace.
Because every life around us shares a fate and a destiny,
Listen – you can hear us singing in the enemy’s captivity.
The moment we go on the attack, we pray for salvation,
If there is a God, he wears the form of my generation.
Who knows if he will accept us – there are no saints among us,
See how we rage, how passionately we love.
When the black shadow rose from Marik to Hoverla,
We fought like it was the last time, the best of us died.
If, like us, you read this out loud, cheerfully and steadfastly
You read this in Ukrainian, it means that we fought with dignity.
(Note: Marik is Mariupol, Hoverla is Ukraine’s highest mountain)
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I finally got around to linking the article I spoke of this morning, reporting on a joint interview with 5 ex-IDF Chiefs of Staff. I’ll link it here again:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-idf-chiefs-lack-of-internal-solidarity-a-greater-threat-than-iran-nukes/
The article reports on a TV interview with five former Israeli Defense Force chiefs last August.
This article is not about Ukraine and I linked to it because it related to last night’s discussion of Saturday’s drone strikes, also because people may be interested in this interview.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic:
I am referencing what happened in Anatolia after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire & again in the aftermath of WW II, in the Balkans following the collapse of former Yugoslavia, & in the Caucasus after the dissolution of the USSR. The ruling Manchus assimilated ASAP as when the Qing Empire collapse (though they were substantially Sinified already by then), so much so that by the 80s the Manchus is no longer an identifiably distinct ethnic group, whatever their national ID card might say.
There were no anti-Russian pogroms in the former SSRs post-dissolution of the USSR because there was still the Russian Federation strong enough to deter such happening. Had the Russian Federation also dissolved at the time, I think we very much would have seen all of that, at least in the Caucasus & possibly parts of Central Asia. I think we might have seen expulsion of ethnic Russians from the Baltic States.
Culturally Russians & Ukrainians are much closer than Russians & Turks of the Caucasus or the Mongols of Siberian regions. I don’t think we can generalize from Ukraine’s treatment of ethnic Russians to other parts of the de facto Russian Empire.
This is not to justify the continued existence of the imperial entity of Russia, in its current form, or to make the Russians the future victims. This is not what I hope will happen. This is how human beings have tended to behave when higher central authority collapses & there is a power vacuum, even w/o the racial component. We should not be naive about it, & the world powers have had a very poor record of mitigating such atrocities, at least not until a great deal of damage had already been done.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
because it was in a Tom Clancy novel,……..
smith
A secret plan to end the war? Where have I heard that before?
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: The idea of a Russian Imperial breakdown/breakup is attractive, of course, and its always a mistake to believe that something as consequential cannot happen in the future because it never happened in the past.
It could happen, but it’s also a mistake to ignore the historical drivers of Russian imperial stability. Sometimes there are reasons to expect the future to have trouble diverging from the past.
For example, it’s a mistake to imagine all those inner-empire nations, even the minority-Russian ones, as struggling secretly against Russian hegemony in a quest for their own cultural identity. Some of those people surely are, but many, possibly most, are not. After centuries of acculturation to Russian hegemonism, many of those “non-Russians” identify as members of a Russian ecumene, and have done so since birth, as have generations of their ancestors.
The reason for Russian success in military recruitment in the outer empire is not merely money and poverty. Those factors would not be enough to bring thousands of recruits per tiny republic into the Russian army, in the face of a widespread nationalist cultural outrage against Russia, if that outrage really existed. There is buy-in to the Russian ecumene, still today, even in minority-Russian republics despite everything that has happened. To imagine otherwise is projection, in my opinion.
History has momentum, and while real shifts occur, all revolutions are made up of a mixture of breaks and of continuities. Pace Adam, but to my mind, the expectation that the Republics are straining to be free and will bolt unless restrained is an oversimplification, and a very American one at that.
Geminid
@TheMightyTrowel: I think it keeps coming up because people’s cynicism can be greater than their knowledge of foreign countries.
Or maybe they used to play Risk a lot
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
in the First Chechen war, a bunch of “ethnic” Russians fought on the Chechen side, even more in the Second Chechen War, because the Russian’s really didn’t care in either war if one was ethnic Russian or Chechen, anybody living in Chechnia was a target.
There is probably a large number of “ethnic” Russians in the inner diaspora who don’t care one way or another who is in charge, and a bunch of their ethnic neighbors who don’t care about “ethnic” Russians.
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian:
But that is precisely what you did in the post I was replying to. You assert that in the republics or regions east of the Urals where russians are ~20-30% of the current population, a collapse of the Muscovy empire will leave them with only three unpalatable choices. What is that, if not painting them as victims? Maybe they could stay where they are and learn to live as an ethnic minority in a government they do not control – as they’ve forced millions of people to do over centuries?
Jay
Redshift
I respect the reality that they are all horrible people, and things in Russia are unlikely to be good for anyone there or around the world, no matter who ends up in charge.
But I’d be interested to hear more about how they’d be worse for Ukraine. As mercenary commanders, I’m sure they don’t want to accept defeat, or withdraw to negotiated borders, but neither does VVP. None of them will leave unless they are forced out. Even if the potential replacements have better troops and a worldview more connected to reality, can they do enough better with logistics and manpower, especially through the chaos of a transition?
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
most of “them” seem to do okay in Ukraine. Seems some “little Green Men” have even decided that life in Ukraine, even under some suspicion, beats Russkiy Mir, and are willing to work towards rehabilitation,………
Carlo Graziani
@Jay:
Christ, that guy. He was a good writer when he wrote about what he understood as a civilian expert—military (principally naval) technology, weapons, tactics—but that’s basically his first two novels (The Hunt for Red October and Red Storm Rising). After that he persuaded himself that he understood International politics, diplomacy, intelligence, etc., whereas he was just another news-reading opinion-haver of no conspicuous distinction, and no more perceptive than (say) Robert Ludlum, less incisive than Ian Fleming. But he held his readership spellbound nonetheless…
Geminid
@Redshift: It seems to me that a transition like we are talking about would indeed be very chaotic. These separate factions would not be able to sustain a defense against the determined Armed Forces of Ukraine, either morally or materially.
They might just pack up and go fight each other over Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Jay
@Redshift:
some of Pootie-poot’s possible replacements are , compared to Pootie-poot, batshit insane.
some of Pootie-poot’s possible replacement’s are more sane, more cunning, have political connections in the West, under the guise of being “reformers”, whom have the same goals as Pootie-poot, just a longer world view. Their “peace deal” with Ukraine would just be a postponement.
Tony G
Both Kharkiv and Kherson have large ethnic Russian populations, but in both cities civilians are being slaughtered by Russian missiles. There are still — almost a year after the beginning of the latest phase of these Russian war crimes — Americans on “the left” who claim that Russia was forced into the “special military operation” in order to protect the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
it’s not Tom Clancy’s fault. They are novels after all, fiction for entertainment purposes.
Some of what turned out to be “members of the audience”, forgot that part.
Carlo Graziani
@Redshift: Of course much would depend on how Putin was ousted, and by whom, and why, and how the rest of the government elite responds (the public gets no say in such matters in Russia).
At a minimum, even Putin’s forced replacement by a worse figure could be a positive event, because it would signal the sort of internecine warfare that can only weaken Russia’s purpose and ability to project power, as factions vie against each other for control of the vehicle.
This kind of mechanistic forecasting of future outcomes is fraught with contingent uncertainties. One may place bets, but it would be mad not to view surprise, for good or ill, as the most likely outcome.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
My gob isn’t.
SFB thinks that he’s the worlds smartest, handsomest, most physically fit, richest, politically astute human being alive or dead. And of course he’s not even close to any of those, he’s so far away from any of them that even one of Elon’s space shots couldn’t get him close. Not in a billion years. But no one will ever convince SFB that the only thing he actually is, is full of shit.
bookworm1398
One of the consequences of Russian breakup would be Ukraine getting no repatriations. It would require a United, reasonably prosperous Russia to exist for decades to pay a reasonable amount for repatriation.
Not a particularly good reason to hope for no breakup, but a consequence to remember
Another Scott
@bookworm1398: I don’t think it will work that way this time.
ForeignPolicy.com (from 1/13/2023):
No doubt the people who have their names on the accounts will hire the best lawyers and fight any seizure in courts for years. But the outcome of those legal fights shouldn’t depend on whatever russia’s borders are at future time, I wouldn’t think.
IANAL.
So, Ukraine may not have to wait for russia’s government to agree to pay – there’s lots of money outside.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Jay
@Another Scott:
and there is probably more money there and elsewhere, to be found,……….
cough, cough, Rethug 501’s,…… NRA,…..
Steeplejack
@Adam:
How is the fit/sizing on the St. Javelin shirt?
NotMax
@Steeplejack
“Does it come in a minotaur neck size?”
:)
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Sure they could, but that also assumes the new governments will allow them to stay & live as ethnic minorities w/o cultural assimilations or living as 2nd class citizens. Unless you are really confident that the new governments will be run by liberals who can tame the nationalist/chauvinists.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Though Russian gold could be part of the negotiation. They have over 2000 tons. Not so much for the monetary value (maybe 50M dollars per ton); more the symbolism.
Russia’s bright, shiny anti-sanctions weapon: Inside the billion-dollar business of ‘blood gold’ – Why Russian President Vladimir Putin went on a gold-buying spree before invading Ukraine. (Joshua Keating, July 15, 2022)
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ixnay
@dr. luba: Damn. Just damn. Thank you very much.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: The Russian Empire had dissolved during late WW I, many regions did try to go their separate ways. Lenin sought to keep the parts together under the utopian Communist banner, as SSRs, & then Stalin reforged the USSR as a new Russian imperial entity (or at least containing a large part of the essence).
If the central authority in Beijing collapses one day, I fully expect Tibetans of the Tibetan “Autonomous” Region to declare independence, & try to include the Tibetan majority regions in Western Sichuan, Western Qinghai, Southern Gansu & Northern Yunnan Provinces. The Uyghurs of Southern Xinjiang will try, as well, & possibly succeed at least w/ their hinterland along the western rim of the Tarim Basin.
Geminid
@Jay: While researching Turkiye recently I found there is an Organization of Turkic States. They had a summit last September in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Besides,the host country, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are members. Turkmenistan and Hungary have observer status.
Turkish President Erdogan suggested in his speech that the five members could cooperate in matters of joint security, perhaps establish a formal alliance.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Late in WWI, many Russian republics responded to loss of central governance and control in a variety of ways, including some bids for independence by their leaders. However, to represent these events as the result of a universal theme of popular nationalist movements providing a drive for independence is quite misleading. And “nationalist yearning for independence” is the invariable subtext of current discussions of the likelihood of Russian dissolution.
As to analogizing the historical Russian empire to current Chinese claims over Tibet and Xinjiang, you cannot possibly be serious. For all intents and purposes, those are actually modern conquests still in the process of being subjugated by Beijing. Should they still be under central Chinese rule two centuries hence, a discussion of natural centrifugal effects driven by populism in those provinces may be worthy of some nuance. At the moment, there is no nuance—those places are simply under forcible, unwanted occupation.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Thanks for that!
It’s good that the former leaders of the Israeli security apparatus agree that the greater threat to Israel is internal (as in the US). An overwhelming majority are hostile to Netanyahu, but Netanyahu is nevertheless PM again. Not sure what that says about Israel going forward.
I think they are saying that they know how to respond effectively to an Iran that is at nuclear threshold to protect Israeli security, not that they know can keep Iran from achieving nuclear threshold indefinitely. Furthermore, I am not sure what to make of the consensus claim that it was Israeli actions over 25 yrs. that has kept Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state. I remember the debates leading up to the JPCOA, I thought there were strong analyses that Iran never intended to acquire a nuclear arsenal, & it was unclear whether Iran actually intended to achieve threshold status, at least at that time. Just because Israeli elites across the spectrum agree on something does not make them right.
I also had to chuckle at the contention that not having “Plan Bs” after agitating for Trump to unilaterally exit the JCPOA was the “historical failure”. Perhaps the “historical failure” was agitating against the JPCOA & agitating for Trump to renege to begin w/. The unilateral withdrawal also cut off the more moderate elements in Iranian government at the knees, & paved the way for the hardest of hardliners to assume power. Either way, it is a historical failure Israeli elites across the spectrum appear to be guilty of. I am not sure what “Plan B” is there to prevent Iran from achieving threshold status if it is determined to do so, other than war.
Chetan Murthy
From Window on Eurasia (apropos of “Russia falling apart”): http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/01/putin-fails-to-see-that-lenin-by-making.html
“Putin Fails to See that Lenin, by Making Concessions to Non-Russians, Saved the Empire for 70 Years, Iampolsky Says”
I’m not an expert in these things. And heck, Window on Eurasia might be presenting a slanted view of things. But if it isn’t, then it seems like there’s a lot of discontent all over the Russian Empire, and it’s not all simply based on ethnicity. What I’ve read there (since before Covid, long before Covid) is that Russia treats the “regions” as imperial possessions: it invests very little and cares very little for the people who live there. That doesn’t change depending on whether those people are of Russian ethnicity or *not*. And furthermore, the governments of those provinces get short shrift, and pretty much used-and-abused by the metropole. There’s little love lost, and lots of reason to think that reasons for fragmentation might have not as much to do with ethnicity as one might imagine.
[Just to turn to the Covid times, for a moment: Goble’s blog documented the staggering neglect of the regions, by the metropole, as people were sickening and dying. That the regions basically started ignoring the metropole and making their own arrangements for surviving the pandemic. It wasn’t a pretty sight, and just more evidence that Russia is held together with main force and not much else. Subtract that main force (b/c “militarily weakened”) and ….]
And also (again, I’m not an expert in this): Is it so obvious that European Russia will not also fragment? There are lots of small nations in European Russia that have themselves suffered greatly under the Czars, and it’s possible that some of them will go their own way, too.
And a militarily exhausted Muscovy might not be able to do too much about it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I think you need to read up on the relevant history.
Chinese empires ruled what is modern day southern Xinjiang (basically the Tarim Basin) from the Western Han Dynasty (~ 150 BC) until the late Tang Dynasty (~ 800 AD). The ancestors of modern Uyghurs only arrived there at the tail end of the Tang Dynasty. The Qing Empire reconquered the region after its final victory over the Dzungar Mongols in 1757. Uyghurs became the majority population along the rim of the Tarim Basin after the Qing massacred the Dzungars in a genocide. Even throughout the chaotic Republican period Xinjiang was ruled by Han Chinese and/or Hui Muslim warlords in the ROC’s name. Stalin tried carve out pieces (like he did w/ Outer Mongolia) by helping to establish the short-lived East Turkestan Republic (centered around Kashgar) & the 2nd East Turkestan Republic (centered around Ili), both only small slivers of modern day Xinjiang, but failed.
Chinese rule over Tibet has been more tenuous. The Mongol Yuan Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, & the Manchu Qing Dynasty all exercised suzerainty over the Tibetan Plateau, but sovereignty highly debatable (but the whole concept of national sovereignty was foreign outside of Europe until late 19th century, anyway). The Tibetan kingdom on the plateau was more independence than provinces, but less independent than tributary states (such as Vietnam or Korea). The Tibetan majority regions in other modern day Chinese provinces frequently had been under tighter imperial authority since at least the Ming Dynasty. Tibet was de facto independent (but unrecognized, thus not de jure) from the fall of the Qing Empire in 1911 to conquest by the PLA in 1950, though the ROC government in Nanking never relinquished its claim.
Regardless, Chinese presence in these regions far predate Russian ones in the Caucasus or far eastern Siberia. Chinese rule of Tibet & Xinjiang are historically imperial, & the current rule under the CCP regime retain many of the colonial characteristics, especially in Xinjiang (because the altitude & harsh climate of the Tibetan Plateau deter migrant settlers from outside).
I am not predicting that Russia will dissolve, but the longer the war goes on the higher the probability that it will do so when it ultimately loses. I really fail to see why you think the regions w/o Russian majorities will want to stay bound to Moscow when the latter’s power & resources are greatly diminished. A loose confederation a la the CIS? Possibly. But why bother if Moscow cannot provide the subsidies that the Russian Federation & the fUSSR did, & Türkiye, China, the US, the EU & Japan potentially could?
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Well, one tends to generalize when writing short comments. As for Armenia & Azerbaijan, the focus is on Russian “Peacekeepers” now. But what if the “Peacekeeper” left? Who will be the focus then? Azeri in Armenia & Armenians in Azerbaijan, sure. After that?
Geminid
I don’t think these generals agitated for the US to leave the JCPOA. That was Netanyahu’s project, and at the time top retired security officials were skeptical if not scathing about that course of action. They knew the JCPOA served Israel’s security interests.
Netanyahu found that Trump’s tough talk was just talk, and that once Trump canceled Barack Obama’s hard won acheivement he simply lost interest in Iran’s nuclear program. Trump never gave a damn about Israel except as an issue that could win votes from Israel’s more credulous supporters.
Trump never really cared about anybody or anything but himself. This seems like an obvious truth but a lot of people still had to learn it the hard way and many haven’t learned it at all.
NotoriousJRT
@Sally: exactly! If he had any real notion of how to end the war, as a patriot and humanitarian he should just offer his “services” to do so. He hasn’t an effing clue, and he probably doesn’t know that Putin doesn’t give a rip what citizen Trump thinks. The idiot isn’t particularly useful out of office.
NotoriousJRT
@Gin & Tonic: Alas this was the one clue I thought the Fat Bastard might have in mind.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I remember Israeli sentiments were pretty universally skeptical of the JPCOA before consummation of the deal. Did more of them change their minds after the JPCOA was in place for a while?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Actually, my memory was that Israeli generals in the security apparatus were uniformly in favor of the JCPOA, both right after it was signed, and as TFG got ready to blow it up. And of course, they supporte Biden’s efforts to resuscitate it. It’s not hard to find articles about this. I’ll include two:
[spit, spit again] the intercept’s article from back during TFG’s time: https://theintercept.com/2018/05/08/donald-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-john-bolton/ ; use it to find a bunch of links to statements by Israeli security service generals (search for “The Israeli security establishment”).
JPost, about Biden’s effort to resuscitate: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/ex-idf-generals-top-mossad-officials-on-biden-to-return-to-iran-deal-659805
I think Likud and the other wingnuts hated the JCPOA, b/c they wanna turn Tehran into glass. But all the sane folks supported it. Or at least, that was my memory, and these links seem to confirm that.
ETA: Here’s a link to Foreign Policy (mag): https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/13/the-iran-nuclear-deal-has-been-a-blessing-for-israel-jcpoa/
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
I remember reading references that chunks of Red Storm Rising was actually ghost written by Larry Bond.
One of the more embarrassing pieces of writing by Clancy was the passage describing the Swiss Guard (station in Jerusalem to achieve peace in the Middle East) in the Sum of All Fears, in excruciating detail & w/ a hint of homoerotic undertone. Except I think he confused the Swiss for the Swedes, specifically Nordic bodybuilders (or rather the minds of American jocks mapped onto the bodies Nordic bodybuilders).
I enjoyed the spy craft in the Cardinal of the Kremlin. Everything after Clear & Present Danger was unreadable trash, even for a high schooler/college undergrad high on testosterone & very naive about the world.
Fall in queue
You are correct, it is F-16s — specifically Block 70 Vipers (which presumably they don’t have the license to produce), plus modernization kits for some of their existing fleet.
The snag is not just Erdogan’s threats to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, but also hard lobbying against the deal by Greece.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/2023/01/18/turkey-f-16-sale-in-limbo-amid-lockheed-backlog/
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: You & Geminid are probably right about after JPCOA was signed. However, as the deal was being negotiated, I don’t recall many voices of support by people in Israel (such as Ehud Barak or Tzipi Livni), & the Obama team was catch a lot of flak from Congressional Ds who were “Israel, Right or Wrong!” types. Obama did not have a whole lot cover on the whole JPCOA effort, but I recall there was strong support from a contingent of Jewish Democrats in Congress.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: you’re right: https://www.thedailybeast.com/israels-ex-prime-minister-ehud-barak-says-keep-the-iran-nuclear-deal
Cathie from Canada
Hey, this is off-topic, I know, but please — you don’t have to apologize so often for not writing us a magnum opus every night!
We are very very grateful that every day you are surveying the Ukraine news, sorting it out, figuring out what needs to be covered, and giving us the story. And you’ve been doing it day after day for almost a year now. And it looks like you’ll be doing it for another year more, at least. And it is absolutely great every day, however short or long it is.
So we don’t need any apologies for how much you write, you have a life and you’re entitled to it.
{That said, you should also seriously consider turning these columns into a book at some point, they are the first draft of an important history.}
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: What I never understood about the non-Likud Israeli opponents of the JPCOA, was what better alternatives they thought were available? Constantly “mowing the grass” on the Iranian nuclear program via cyber attacks, targeted strikes & assassinations? They can try that tactic (& it is a tactic, not a strategy) on Hamas in Gaza, but how is it sustainable w/ Iran? How does the escalatory spiral from the action/reaction cycle not result in a hot war that everyone will regret?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: There is a fundamental failure to understand the long-term, in Israel. I remember when I learned that under Barak, even as he was negotiating with Arafat, he was building settlements in the Occupied Territories. I mean, what imbecility! As if somehow he’s supposed to be a credible counterparty when he’s literally gobbling up Palestinian land all the while.
And I think that what you’ve identified is just another example of the same thing. I think that at some deep level, even Labor (and of course Likud and their nutjob allies) all have bought into the thinking of “we’ll do what we want”. I think that Rabin was one of the few who recognized that this was a failed strategy. Or at least, I hope he recognized it: it’d be even more depressing to learn that even he didn’t understand reality.
I think Israel’s long-term policy has been to destroy all functioning governments around them that could possibly threaten them. So Lebanon, Syria, those gotta go. And I’m sure they’d do the same to Iran if they could. Somehow they believe that if they foment absolute chaos around them, then they can always prevail.
I don’t think they realize the costs of this sort of behaviour: not just on their standing, but also on their own people. I remember well Martin van Creveld writing about how the IDF serving as basically a bunch of colonial policemen, in truth thugs, was corroding their military spirit.
I’m one who believes in the necessity of the state of Israel, b/c if there’s one thing that’s a constant in our world, it’s anti-Semitism. Jewish people need the ability to stand and defend themselves without having to rely on anybody else. But geez, that doesn’t mean creating a sea of enemies all around you, ffs. That’s just idiocy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Well, “we’ll do what we want (to defend ourselves as we see fit)” pretty much characterized Israeli behavior for the 1st 4 decades of its existence, most of which dominated by Labor or its predecessor. It had been so successful for so long that it may have been internalized into the subconscious of Israeli elite & much of the population.
bookworm1398
Maybe I can get the last word in.
JCPOA – The GOP were opposed to it from the first. At the time of signing a bunch of legislators wrote an open letter to Iran warning them US treaties weren’t final unless ratified by Congress. Israel may not have liked the treaty but it wasn’t responsible for Trump withdrawing.
Separatism in Russia- forget Tibet, think about Scotland. Scotland isn’t being particularly oppressed by London, the economic consequences of Scotexit are doubtful, but there is still strong demand for independence.
Anyway
@Chetan Murthy:
And now Israel plays footsie with Saudi Arabia and the awful MBS.
It’s some combination of Strategery and “enemy of my enemy …” but leaves a bad taste.
Geminid
@bookworm1398: I think there were three main proponents for the U.S. withdrawing from the JCPOA: the Israeli government, the Arab Gulf states, and Congressional Republicans. I don’t think any one could have persuaded Trump on this matter, maybe not even two. But after two years of agitation, the three together proved persuasive.
The proponents of withdrawel thought there would be a more focused follow through, but the fickle Trump lost interest. He had a negative foreign policy acomplishment to brag about to his credulous supporters. The real world fallout from the withdrawel received little of his focus.
I think the “Plan B” the IDF generals faulted the withdrawel proponents for not having was a concerted effort that went beyond sanctions once they proved inneffective, up to and including a joint U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program.
They may have mistaken Trump’s tough talk for a hardnosed and ruthless policy regarding the security threats posed by Iran, as if Trump was a populist Dick Cheney. But Trump only cared for his own self interest, and he had learned from Bush’s experience that wars are bad for a President’s popularity. So, matters drifted sideways and downward..
As of last August, attempts to negotiate a new JCPOA looked like they would result in a new agreement. After two years of Iran expanding its enrichment program, and with a 2025 expiration date, the agreement was a poor substitute for the one President Obama’s team negotiated, and I thought it was no great loss when last minute objections by Iran scuttled the deal.
There was another significant development in the region, the so-called “Abraham Accords.” I thing these agreements, under which Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco traded 70 years of hostilty towards Israel for diplomatic, economic and military ties were a result not of Trump’s “diplomacy” but of his isolationism. For 70 years, American presidents took an extraordinary interest in the region and always had the Arabs’ and Israelis’ backs. Now they were faced with an American president who had no one’s back but his own. If the region had exploded into violence Trump’s actions would have been conditioned by self interest alone.
So the Arab states decided to set side their grievances with Israel and join forces with a major regional military power. And while Saudi Arabia did not join the Accords, Bahrain and the UAE would not have without Saudi assent. Neither would have Israel have been allowed into the U.S. Central Command military alliance after 70 years of being an anomalous member of the US’s European security framework.
dr. luba
@YY_Sima Qian: Provide subsidies? Moscow treats the outlying regions as colonial cash cows; the natural resources come out, and the revenue goes to Moscow/St. Petersburg/Putin and the oligarchs.
Getting rid of Russia would be a financial windfall to many of these regions, as they could negotiate the sale of these resources and keep the profits.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t believe Israel fomented chaos in Syria. They and Assad (father and son) had a modus vivendi that maintained a stable cold war, and Assad’s contued rule was in Israel’s interst because he was not a military threat.
The Syrian civil war broke out because the younger Assad’s vicious rule was intolerable to Syria’s Sunni majority. It’s outcome predictably was a situation more dangerous to Israel than before.
As for Lebanon, Israel’s other northern neighbor, I think that country would have it’s problems even if Israel was not its neighbor. Israel certainly did its share to create instability back in the 1980s, after Syria suppressed- but could not resolve- Lebanon’s civil war. But the Lebanese themselves have proved plenty capable of creating chaos by themselves, and for the last 20 years Iran has done a lot to foment Lebanese instability by sponsoring a state within the state in the form of Hezbollah.
I realize Hezbollah’s rise in the 1980s can be debited to Israel’s destructive invasion of Lebanon and its aftermath, but decades have passed since then and at this point I hold Hezbolloh and Iran responsible for Hezbollah’s actions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid:
That’s more of the “Grass Mowing” tactic. Iran’s nuclear program will not end even w/ a joint Israeli-US strike. & the regional/global tit for tat that would follow the strikes would not easily end either. Such a strike w/o Iran taking a shot 1st, especially on the US’ part, would be as detrimental to US’ international standing as the invasion of Iraq did. It will not happen w/ a UN mandate. Much of the world (even many members of the EU?) would see it as naked aggression. The US might not as easily have corralled support from the EU & other allies & partners to respond as vigorously to Russian aggression against Ukraine in such a scenario.
Perhaps, but then what? Let the Israeli-Iranian shadow warn fester until it becomes truly hot starting w/ a large Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear program?
The frustration I have w/ much of what passes for statecraft these days (everywhere) is that the focus is heavily weighed on militarized “deterrence” of one’s rivals & nothing else. For true deterrence to be effective, it has to pair threat of punishment for undesirable behavior w/ offer of reassurance for desirable behavior (including cessation of undesirable behavior). The JCPOA is an excellent example of such effective deterrence, toward the limited & specific goal of significantly postponing Iran achieving nuclear threshold status. The Biden team’s diplomatic moves prior to the current Russian invasion is another decent example. They paired unmistakable threats of financial/economic pain w/ offers of negotiation to address Russia’s grievance if Putin refrains from invading Ukraine. Unfortunately, in this instance deterrence failed, because Putin was undeterrable (by threats or inducements) when it came to Ukraine, at least not on terms acceptable to anyone else.
Threat of military & economic punishment, disguising as “deterrence”, w/o reassurance is a recipe for action-reaction cycle spiraling out of control, it is not a theory for war avoidance. At best it buys time, but buying time for what? For the rival to collapse due to internal pressures? That could take a long time, if ever, & things could easily spiral out of control before then. It also requires investing so much in a powerful enough military to achieve overmatch on the doorsteps of any adversary. If that is the default US “strategy” against all rivals & competitors, then it is a recipe for ever rising militarization, at the expense of liberal democracy & the social welfare state. There will always be rivals & competitors to the US. Same applies to China.
I also worry that US & European policymakers will over-learn the fatalistic lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: since Putin was undeterrable by threats & inducements & clearly irrational & insane, let’s not make the mistake of assuming Xi (or Khamenei, or Kim the 3rd, or whoever) is sane & rational & deterrable, lay out our threats & prepare for war, because war is inevitable (better that it comes on our terms). That is the tenor behind the the string of “predictions” on war over Taiwan from several high level US generals & admirals over the past 18 months. It is not the military’s job to predict when war might happen (certainly not publicly). It is their job to assess the rivals’ current & projected capabilities & capacity for war, the US’ current & projected capabilities & capacity for war, & the chances of a favorable outcome at a given timeframe should war occur. It is the intelligence community’s & the State Dept.’s job to assess if a rival has decided to embark on a war, or has decided on a time schedule. It is the civilian leadership’s job to try their utmost to prevent such a war from occurring (assuming that is their desire).
YY_Sima Qian
@dr. luba: The analyses I’ve read suggests that the Far Eastern regions are a resource drain for Moscow.
& not every region in the Russian Federation is resource rich.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: An Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities certainly would not end the tgreat forever and the Israelis know this.the Iranians would eventually build more centrifuges to replace the thousands lost, once they first rebuilt their centrifuge manufacturing capability.
But the Israelis are looking at the present, and what they see is enough uranium enriched to 60% U-235 that Iran is one step away from possessing material for four nuclear bombs. That of course doesn’t mean they are about to become a nuclear state because they’ll still need to fabricate a bomb. But once they have enough 90% U-235 they can hide it where it can’t be destroyed. Then, while they spin the next four bomb’ worth of material, the Iranians can fabricate the bomb mechanism. That would not be very hard.
To Israel, this is an intolerable risk. They take the Islamic Republic’s leadership seriously when they vow to destroy Israel. Rightly or wrongly, Israel sees the Iranian nuclear program as a clear existential threat right now, and their leadership’s core belief in this matter is that they have a responsibilty to defend themselves bcause they can’t rely on others to defend them. Even though that means triggering a violent full scale war with Iran, they’ll still attack because they consider the alternative far worse
Geminid
@Fall in queue: Then I must stand corrected for trying to correct the very knowledgeable Dr. Silverman.
But I think Turkiye still hopes to reclaim a place in the F-35 line that they were dropped from when they bought Russian anti-air missiles.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: That assumes the Iranian leadership is irrational, because Israel is a nuclear weapons state. Any nuclear strike by Iran against Israel will result in destruction of Iran & the Persian civilization as we know it from the Israeli retaliation. The fact that Iran signed the JCPOA shows they are quite capable of behaving rationally given the right combination of incentives.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, that assumes that Iran’s leadership is not neccesarily rational, and I think that right now they essentially are rational, albeit with a streak of fanatacism. But can Israel count on their rationality, both now and in the future? Iran’s leaders preside over a nation of 85 million whose existence is not as precarious as Israels.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of that regime would be destabilizing in a way Israel’s never have been. Israel is not the one threatening to destroy another country; they are just threatening to destroy that country’s nuclear weapons program.
And the US’s long standing policy also is that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. We’re not as vocal about this as Israel, but our reiteration that “nothing is off the table” is not just window dressing but a real threat.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I understand the line of reasoning. I just think that kind of fatalism is nuts. It can only end in a self-fulfilling prophecy of ruinous warfare. The JCPOA was a way to break out of that cycle. The successor, even if it only lasted until 2025, is IMO a massive improvement over the current situation, its failure is a huge opportunity missed. Any deal that reduces the probability of war w/ Iran is a good thing. Yes, the Iranians added conditions at the last minute that scuttled the deal. However, it was the US that unilaterally exited the deal when Iran was still in compliance, & Biden administration wanted to add tougher terms for the successor. I don’t think any negotiating counterparty would have been able to stomach that, not if they want to survive domestically
By the same token, the world will have to learn to live w/ a nuclear North Korea. That is fait accompli. Yet no one is taking about preemptive strike against North Korea.
Bill Arnold
This is sort of amusing; rambling video with English subtitles (assuming they are accurate) at link. The replies provide some context. (He seems to be asking for a polonium tea party followed by a flight test.)
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thanks for the well-argued pushback on the arguments about the JCPOA and Israel’s bad decisions. In my view, the JCPOA was in part a reasonable bet that Iran would start to re-enter the community of nations, including shifts in internal politics which could provide political support for less international belligerence, including less support for terrorist proxies.
The various reality-based people in Israel in support of the JCPOA were not willing to fight hard for it, so they are in that sense complicit in increasing the risk of Israel’s destruction in nuclear fire; that increased risk including increased risk of a potential 3+ way nuclear arms race in the area.
I am also personally unforgiving about the involvement of the Israeli right in US politics, amplifying the narrative in many venues that support for Israel in the US is a partisan issue. That wedge tore apart quite a few Jewish groups. It was accompanied by more direct support for the Republicans and for DJT, seemingly in the belief that a US controlled by Republicans would be willing/eager to go to war with Iran. [1] They don’t get a pass for pro-Fascism influence work vs the US any more than Russia does. IMO.
[1] McCain 2007 : “McCain began his answer by changing the words to a popular Beach Boys song ‘Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran,’ “
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Who is arguing against the original JCPOA? I’m sure not. I think that it was an excellent and badly needed agreement, and that Trump walking away from it was reckless and destructive.
But that horse is out of the barn, and the assigning of moral blame does not affect my analysis of the present situation, and it certainly does not affect that of the Israelis. They have to respond to the actual threat and not to what might have been had Netanyahu, the Gulf states, and Congressional Republicans not encouraged Trump to withdraw. And so does the Biden administration.
Bill Arnold
@Geminid:
I’m mainly saying that those people continue to be bad actors, and should be treated as such, and their lobbying and arguments treated as the voices of bad actors. Netanyahu will be hard to ignore, since he will be pushing for attacks on Iran without regard to any interests other than his (bad actor’s) perception of Israel’s interests.
I’m done with even pro-forma arguing for Iran, though. They, too, have made recent very bad decisions/fucked around, and they will be finding out. That includes Iran’s domestic violent suppression of dissent, including killing of women.