(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Russians once again opened up on civilian targets overnight:
russian missile attack on apartment buildings in Avdiivka, Donetsk region.#russiaisaterroriststate pic.twitter.com/nUqiUdag8F
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 26, 2023
These attacks are actually acts of desperation because the war is not going Russia’s way in the Land Domain. They are intended to terrorize the Ukrainians and try to break their resilience. As terrible as they are I don’t think they will have the strategic effect Russia hopes for.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
You can’t be mentally far from the war, support our warriors whenever possible – address by the President of Ukraine
26 March 2023 – 23:55
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today our National Guard celebrates its day, and it will be right if we all thank the National Guardsmen together. For the way the National Guard, together with all our warriors, is powerfully fighting for Ukraine. For strength and courage in the battle for Donbas. For the defense of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. For the heroic defense of Mariupol and Azovstal. For the battles in the Luhansk region. For the battles in the Kyiv region, for the battle for Kyiv. Together with all the defense and security forces of Ukraine, the guardsmen ousted the occupier from the northern regions of our country, from the Kharkiv region. They are holding the line in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Separately, I want to thank the Offensive Guard, which has already become an example of the exemplary formation of new brigades for the Ukrainian defense.
During the full-scale war, almost 5,000 National Guardsmen have already been awarded state awards – precisely for their participation in battles, for bravery, for resilience, and for the military results achieved by the National Guard. 32 warriors of the National Guard were awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.
I thank all Guardsmen: soldiers, sergeants, officers, command! Thank you to everyone who helps the units of the National Guard, who trains soldiers, provides them with everything they need, helps with treatment after injuries, with rehabilitation.
The strength of Ukraine is the strength of all those who fight for Ukraine and who help the warriors. And it is simply impossible to imagine our state’s might without the National Guard.
Today there was a meeting with the military – a special military meeting, a special circle of participants. I also held meetings with the security sector, with intelligence.
Defense, reinforcement of our protection – both from external threats and from internal threats. We’re preparing respective steps.
Constantly, invariably, maximum attention is paid to the situation on the frontline. To the brutal battles that take the lives of our people every day and require constant mobilization of our state and society every day.
It is wrong, it is unfair, when our warriors who come from the front have the feeling that for many in the rear, the war is allegedly already over. For those who are not just far from the Donetsk region or Nikopol, from Saltivka, from the border areas of the Sumy region, from Zaporizhzhia… But who are mentally far from the trenches, from the daily pain of Ukrainians.
Now, just as it was a year ago, one cannot be mentally far from the war, although thanks to our soldiers, real hostilities are taking place geographically far from many. Now, just as it was a year ago, it is important that as many Ukrainians as possible help the defense of the state, help the accumulation of world support for our victory.
Fellow Ukrainians! Support our warriors whenever possible. Don’t forget about volunteers’ fundraising campaigns and join when you can.
It is very important for everyone who has informational influence to participate in informational work. This applies not only to journalists. This applies to everyone who can spread the truth about aggression. Who is capable of reminding the world about Ukrainian men and women who went through the occupation, through losses… About the fact that Ukraine is fighting for freedom and justice for our people and for all nations threatened by Russian tyranny. The world must hear as intensely as last year that the aggression against Ukraine continues. It must hear that ending the war already this year, liberating Ukraine from Russian evil this year is a joint task of the civilized world. Because civilized means, in particular, determined to defend civilization.
I met with the UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Orlando Bloom and the UNICEF team – an organization engaged in humanitarian support and protection of children. Orlando Bloom has been working meaningfully in this direction for a long time. He has already been to Ukraine, in our Donbas, even before the full-scale war. And he knows what this aggression has brought, how full-scale the world’s efforts must be to stop it, to restore Ukraine after the war.
We discussed the issue of rebuilding our country, our school infrastructure. I appreciate this help. We agreed that our teams should work on several issues.
In particular, this is the issue of the return of our children who were forcibly taken to Russia, this is the creation of bomb shelters for our children. And the third is the technical support of distance education in those areas and regions where it is impossible to study offline due to relevant threats.
Today, as always, I will celebrate our warriors who gave a significant result to Ukraine over the past day, this day, and this week in general.
The 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade and the 93rd separate mechanized brigade – well done, guys! Thank you for your strength!
The marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, the warriors of the 55th “Zaporiz’ka Sich” artillery brigade – all in the Donetsk region – thank you for being the best week after week!
I also want to celebrate today our warriors of the “North” operational and strategic group of troops, who protect the Sumy region and the Chernihiv region. This is the defense against attempts of subversive groups infiltration across the border, this is a cover for Ukraine from airstrikes, and this is a defense against the artillery of terrorists.
Thank you to all our anti-aircraft gunners of the “North”, to all those who protect our state border, to all those who, with their courage and accuracy, make the enemy learn that the Kremlin will not conquer Ukraine.
Glory to all our warriors who are in combat!
Gratitude to everyone who helps the defense!
Eternal memory and honor to all our warriors who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the latest operational update from the Ukrainian MOD. It is a machine translation from their Telegram channel:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut based on the operational update above:
BAKHMUT CITY /1820 UTC 26 MAR/ This report is based on the 1800 [Kyiv] reports of the UKR Gen’l Staff. RU attacks on Ivanivske broken up. UKR says RU losses include 11 main battle tanks, 15 infantry fighting vehicles and upwards of 700 Russian troops Killed in Action (KIA). pic.twitter.com/duNNsjQGGz
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 26, 2023
The tank, the tank, the tank is on fire
We don't need no water, let the russian tank burn.
🔥 🔥 🔥🎥 14th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/lZxzemGTXO
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 26, 2023
Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner's Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.
In this… pic.twitter.com/GY7imT62bM
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 26, 2023
Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner’s Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.
In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership, amply using curse words.
This segment pieced together and translated by us contains the juiciest parts. In the rest of the call, men complain about sanctions, which affected both personally.
While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened and claimed it was a deepfake made using neural networks, he later commented by saying “Let’s start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life. People in a private conversation can talk about anything”, but stated he “couldn’t remember such a call happening.
The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however – a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake.
While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.
Looking understandably nervous, Iosif Prigozhin says the recording is an AI voice fake, by the way. pic.twitter.com/1M7mYbje62
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 26, 2023
Here’s the full text of Rothrock’s full tweet:
Oh my. Ukrainian media releases alleged conversation btwn music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not to be confused w/ Evgeny) & billionaire, ex-Senator Farkhad Akhmedov (supposedly recorded a couple of months ago). Publicly pro-Putin, the two men tear him apart mercilessly here.
Both Iosif Prigozhin and Akhmedov, fairly prominent members of the Russian elite, are currently under sanctions. In this alleged conversation, they use a lot of obscene language, insulting Putin, Medvedev, Patrushev, Zolotov, Sechin, alleging a plot against Shoigu, and even insisting that Putin will pay for the disastrous war, for failing to develop the nation, for dooming Russia’s future generations, and more and more and more.
Here is a request from Hanna Malyar, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense:
Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar claimed on social media that only three people had the right to disclose military plans publicly – the president, the minister of defence, and the commander in chief.
“All others can only quote them,” she wrote. “Please stop asking experts questions about a counter-offensive on the air, please stop writing blogs and posts on this topic, please stop publicly discussing the military plans of our army.”
So what do President Zelenskyy thinks, let’s go back to the BBC:
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.
He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers.
In an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun, he said the situation in eastern Ukraine was “not good”.
“We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners,” he said.
And when asked about the expected counter-offensive, he said: “We can’t start yet, we can’t send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets.”
He added: “If you have the political will, you can find a way to help us. We are at war and can’t wait.”
But President Zelensky is more pessimistic. He has often warned that the war could drag on for years unless Western allies speeded up the delivery of weapons. But this is the first time he has actually said the counter-offensive itself might be delayed by the lack of Western equipment.
His remarks reflect not only his desire to encourage more speed, but also his frustration at what he sees as the lack of haste.
Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, has posted an analysis on Bakhmut at his substack:
Loud thunder but few raindrops
Chinese proverb
This proverb was used by Sergey Radchenko to describe the result of the much heralded Putin-Xi summit, which concluded on 22 March. It might also describe a general feature of Russia’s war. Much is promised with boasts and bluster but in the end the results are meagre – whether we are referring to attempts to persuade Western countries to stop supporting Ukraine or coerce Ukraine into abandoning the war, or Russia’s offensive operations. The costs, of course, of these failed efforts are anything but meagre. The losses and suffering caused by this war has been immense, which makes its utter futility even more egregious.
It also raises a question about how long Russia can keep this going. The conventional wisdom is ‘forever’ because this is Vladimir Putin’s war and he is firmly in power. Russia’s economy is ticking over and there are no signs of revolution in the air. The only way to bring this war to a conclusion, therefore, is by means of a successful Ukrainian offensive. This has also been my view for some time.
Yet my aim with these posts is not to predict, but to look at developments and trends and consider future possibilities that may not come to pass but are worth consideration. In this post I look at the possibility that Russia’s current offensive may fail – likely but not yet certain – and the implications of Putin having no obvious route to victory. It is in the context of this possibility that China’s peace plan needs to be viewed.
Why Russia’s Offensive Matters to Putin
Putin regularly professes a desire for peace but with the routine condition that everyone, including Kyiv, must first accept all the recent annexations (the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson), which they won’t. If Putin ever accepts that these annexations must be abandoned then he is in trouble back home. The right will be furious if it appears that he is prepared to surrender declared Russian territory; everyone else will be furious that so much has been wasted for so little gain. He therefore has no choice but to persevere with his current strategy, and to this end he has put his country on a war-footing.
This has led to the view that the only a successful Ukrainian offensive can force the Kremlin to look for a way out . Much effort is currently going into Ukrainian preparations for this offensive, with new units being formed, full of recently delivered equipment. Only once the offensive is well underway will we be able to see whether this is as much of a ‘game-changer’ as people hope. In a future post I will look more at how this might develop. For those interested, General Mick Ryan provides a helpful guide to the issues.
What interests me here is the assumption that more depends on the success of the Ukrainian offensive than the failure of the Russian. This implies that the current situation satisfies Putinso that the real issue is how well his forces can hold their defensive lines against the coming Ukrainian onslaught. But Putin is clearly not happy with the current situation. If he was, he would have offered a cease-fire months ago in the hope and expectation of freezing the territorial status quo. Russia does not control all the territory to which it now lays claim. This is why it launched its own offensive in January. Perhaps part of the reason was to disrupt Ukrainian preparations , but the basic reason was to take more territory. This offensive has yet to run its course, and there are areas where Russian forces may yet progress, but so far there is little to show for all the effort and costs.
If it fails to prosper then Putin’s minimum aspirations will still be unmet and his forces less able to cope with whatever Ukraine intends to throw at them.
The importance of Bakhmut
Russia’s current offensive essentially took over from where the previous one left off, with the continuity being provided by the battle for Bakhmut. This battle began last May as part of the then Russian effort to take all of the Donbas, the stated war aim from late March. Russian forces had largely completed the takeover of the oblast of Luhansk and were moving onto Donetsk. From late June Russian forces began to face difficulties as the Ukrainians were able to take advantage of deliveries of accurate long-range artillery to target Russian ammunition dumps and command posts. Then they made it known that they intended to take back Kherson oblast, and began operations to do so. This led Russia to move reserves in that direction, which created an opportunity for the Ukrainians to move into the thinly defended Kharkiv oblast. They soon made rapid progress, matched then by some additional movement in Kherson.
What followed was a crisis in Moscow that led to a major strategic reappraisal. By and large this reflected the demands of the hardliners for a more robust approach to the war, the key features were the announced annexations, which expanded rather than contracted the war aims, systematic and persistent attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, mass mobilisation, which allowed for a rushed move to plug holes in the defences, and a new commander, General Sergei Surovokin, favoured by the hardliners.
This had the effect of slowing down Ukrainian advances, virtually to a standstill, except for when the Russians belatedly evacuated Kherson city last November. At which point Ukraine and its supporters in NATO had to engage in their own reappraisal. Out of this came a commitment to provide Ukraine with the wherewithal to conduct a substantial offensive, including infantry vehicles and tanks, improved air defences and more artillery. The downside was that Ukraine had to move to a defensive mode while it waited for the new equipment to be delivered and its forces trained. Now aware of what was coming, andfrustrated that the territory held did not match the annexations, Putin sought a new offensive. Surovokin, who apparently was too defensive-minded and too close to the Defence Ministry’s critics, was removed and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who would always do as he was told, was put in charge of the overall operation.
Bakhmut was unfinished business from the previous offensive. The mercenary Wagner group was hammering away, their numbers boosted by the recruitment of convicts who were to be offered their freedom if they could survive for six months at the front. Using a combination of incessant artillery barrages and mobilised personnel (mobiks) and convicts as expendable manpower Wagner moved forward, first taking Soledar close to Bakhmut, and then the high ground to its north and south. The imminent seizure of the city was soon being spoken of as a vital next step for Russia. Defence Minister Shoigu explained that this was an important hub of the Ukrainian armed forces. ‘Taking it under control will allow further offensive actions deep into defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’ Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, told Newsweek that without Bakhmut it would be impossible to achieve Putin’s war aims, which required all of Donbas to be taken.
Much, much, much more at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
smedley the uncertain
one
West of the Rockies
Ol’ Prigo may wish to avoid multi-floor buildings with windows for a while.
Alison Rose
I don’t doubt that you’re correct about this aim, but it is still baffling that russia thinks breaking Ukraine’s resilience is a thing that will ever happen. They really are living in a twisted fantasy world, aren’t they?
I haven’t heard that Bloodhound Gang song in a long ass time, but just reading that DefenceU tweet immediately had me back at high school parties, singing it in between bong rips. Ah, memories. Fuzzy though they may be.
Through the United24 FB page, I found this artist on Redbubble who made some lovely artwork using Zelenskyy’s “without you” quote to raise funds for Ukraine. I’m thinking of getting the art board print.
Thank you as always, Adam.
zhena gogolia
I listened to the whole 35-minute Iosif Prigozhin conversation today. I’ve heard a lot of Russian cursing, but they hardly use any other words. Without бдядь the conversation would have been 10 minutes.
The whole thing made me sick. They were happy to profit off Putler as long as he didn’t mess up their grift, now they’re mad.
The one good thing I took away from it was satisfaction at how effective the Azeri guy said the sanctions were. But the other guy — you publicly support the war, but you’re worried about your property in London and Switzerland. Vomit. We all know it’s true, but listening to it for 35 minutes was nauseating.
West of the Rockies
@zhena gogolia:
Did it seem legit to you then, and not a deep audio fake?
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies: It seemed legit, but I don’t have any real expertise in identifying such a fake. It certainly sounded like idiomatic language and believable dialogue, not resembling the ChatGPT stuff I’ve seen. But then — I was gobsmacked that they would have such a conversation on the phone. I really don’t know.
Gin & Tonic
Back in 2014, during the previous phase of russia’s war on Ukraine, UA forces became surrounded in a town called Ilovaisk, Donetsk Oblast. A safe corridor for their retreat was negotiated, but as they were actually leaving, they were massacred. Over 360 dead, including what I believe to have been the first Ukrainian-American casualty in the UAF. This was a 50-something guy from New Jersey, a West Point grad, who went to Ukraine and renounced his American citizenship, as then you could only join the UAF if you were a UA citizen, and UA does not allow dual citizenship.
Today we learned that the russian officer who gave the order to kill the retreating troops, Dmitri Lysytskii, has been killed. Sometimes justice comes slowly.
Snarki, child of Loki
AI translator glitch, or Russian Mob hit?
Gin & Tonic
@Snarki, child of Loki: There is a town named New York in Donetsk Oblast. For real.
counterfactual
I literally need a cigarette to take down the schadenfreude high I got from listening to that conversation.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I’ll pour one out for him, except the glass will be empty.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Not sure what I could add to that, but I am sure that I am so glad you shared the soup thread the other night!
United24 should get his recipes and sell them as a PDF download as a fundraiser.
coin operated
@Gin & Tonic:
I know there are those who scoff at celebrating the death of Russians. In this case though…fuck that guy. Justice indeed!
coin operated
@Lyrebird:
Soup thread? Been busy as hell this week (datacenter audit…2000 devices and still counting) and missed it. Someone have a link?
Another Scott
@coin operated:
Gin & Tonic (on 3/23) is the start of it all, I think.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Yutsano
Meanwhile in Israel things are just going swimmingly right now. This could be really bad for Bibi. For some reason I’m cackling
oldster
I thought this was hilarious:
“While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened… “Let’s start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life….”
“I never said it! And how dare you publicize my private conversations! Which I never had! But it violates my privacy!”
coin operated
@Another Scott:
Thank you.
Ruckus
@zhena gogolia:
I was gobsmacked that they would have such a conversation on the phone.
I only see 2 scenarios here. Either life on the higher end in Russia is getting rather iffy – as to maintaining it in any way, or it is a fake. And I see fake as having a better chance because I doubt you get to the level they are at in Russia without being at least rather careful about what one says. And in my mind the only time that might change is if change itself is likely. And I’d give very few in Russia the chance to know that.
Carlo Graziani
@zhena gogolia: “There is no honor among thieves.”
Jay
Dan B
@Yutsano: The demonstrations in Tel Aviv are massive. Police have started to aggressively put them down so the situation will likely explode.
cain
@Carlo Graziani:
There is no honor among Republicans. They are of course thieves but some thieves actually have honor.
I suppose once you buy a Republican they are loyal forevermore.
Another Scott
@Dan B:
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@zhena gogolia:
Phone conversations can be encrypted, e.g. with the Signal app on smartphones. (Not implying anything about that particular recording, and Signal is blocked in Russia IIIRC.)
Jay
@Ruckus:
Keep in mind that the “guys” talking have been part of the silovi class in Russia for 30 years, untouchable, unaccountable, able to do what ever they want. The SFB, FSB, Police, Judges, nobody can “touch them” unless Putin pulls their immunity, and for decades, Putin was happy to let their infighting, corruption, scheming, being amongst each other, rather than against him.
Jay
Carlo Graziani
Freedman makes a lot of sense, and his framing of the past 6 months of the war is very persuasive and illuminating.
Ruckus
@Jay:
Yes I’m sure that vlad is glad to have people talk about him and his leadership on the phone for 35 minutes in a very negative manner. Now he may be slightly busy and has changed his focus on some that he thinks are at least willing to go along to get along and have the money that shows that they do, but there are limits and this seems to me to be beyond any limits that vlad may have. OTOH he does seem to be slightly busy these days so sure it may have slipped by the wayside…..
Another Scott
@Jay: Sad.
Cheers,
Scott.
sdhays
@Another Scott: I just read in the Washington Post that, according to the now former Defense Minister, IDF recruits are threatening to blow off their training over this.
Universities are one thing, but it’s quite another when soldiers/trainees strike.
Dan B
@Jay: Weird.
Another Scott
@sdhays: +1
It seems like Israelis are finally realizing that Bibi is willing to break the country to stay out of jail, and there isn’t too much time left to stop him.
Cheers,
Scott.
Yutsano
@Another Scott: Firing the Defence Minister just for critiquing a law is beyond not a good look. Netanyahu has pretty much guaranteed that the reservists are not going to be doing their rotations. And he’s still vowing to pass the thing! Something is going to blow up and badly if this thing passes.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Some backstory on that [parody, funny]. Google translate does a pretty bad job, but at least works.
https://gordonua.com/news/politics/spasibo-tebe-pikachu-chto-osnoval-rus-v-rf-vypustili-parodiynyy-rolik-o-popravkah-k-konstitucii-video-1506645.html
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Separating Mr. B. Netanyahu from the levers of power was relatively painless for Israel last time. This time, some eggs will be broken/there will be pain.
Torrey
@Alison Rose:
Thank you for posting this.
scav
@Yutsano: Neither the manner in which those sides are lining up nor their composition bides well for a tidy, unproblematic resolution.
RaflW
@Another Scott: The latest by @AnshelPfeffer for Haaretz “Netanyahu is Now Pyromaniac-in-chief of a Government of Arsonists.”
NutmegAgain
Regarding the dogs and cats–I’ve been wanting to donate a bit to somebody or other who is feeding and caring for all the orphaned pets, some of whom we see here. And then there is stuff like what the NYT covered about who is and isn’t legit. Previously I’ve donated to a people-focused org on Tim Snyder’s list, so I felt OK about that. But–Anybody here have any comments pro or con about a donation to animal care? Thanks
NutmegAgain
@sdhays: I read a comment elsewhere noting that, since everyone in the right age bracket in Israel is required to serve, with the exception of Haredi, the recruits etc may actually tilt more to the left when you consider the whole population. I would not say I know much about Israeli politics, but if that’s true it’s an interesting insight.
cain
@Bill Arnold: His power base are the Russian Jews if I recall from some articles I read. They have been fueling his autocratic push.
it seems that American Jews are distancing themselves:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/24/middleeast/us-jews-israel-smotrich-mime-intl/index.html
Jay
@NutmegAgain:
https://oavt.org/help-animals-in-ukraine/#:~:text=Since%202009%2C%20the%20International%20Animal,by%20making%20a%20donation%20here.
Ksmiami
Why can’t the west send enough ammo to help Ukraine finish this. I mean come on Biden et all… the dithering is getting innocents killed
cain
@cain:
JFC – it seems like bibi doesn’t give two fucks about American Jews – he knows that he has the evangelical support base in the U.S.
Which is interesting – as I suspect that AIPAC is more affiliated with right wing Israel and evangelicals than actual American Jews.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
as it has been explained time and time again, and you probably missed it during the early stages of covid, when you ran out of toilet paper, supply chains don’t turn on a time, and $0.
Ksmiami
@Jay: a) I knew a lot about how pandemics so I loaded up in early 2020 and had no err supply issues b) we have the know how and facilities to manufacture and acquire ammo, guns and munitions c) the money is there, it’s the will and worrying too much about Putin’s reactions which at this point, shouldn’t be as much of an issue if there’s no direct NATO soldiers etc.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Ksmiami:
Factories can only run so fast, and it takes time to spin up new production facilities.
(repost) DefenseNews.com (from 2/13).
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
the arms factories are Corporate For Profit enterprises. They are not going to spend billions of Corporate capital on expanding supply chains, adding shifts and tools that could quickly bankrupt the Corporation with out a contract for the product. Until recently, there were no contracts, no money, not even promises of money.
Bill Arnold
@cain:
Some of that evangelical support base is theologically committed to the destruction of Israel, and of the rest of the world as a side effect. That might include some power-hungry people like Mike Pompeo.
They are no more allies of Israel than (fictional) General Ripper was a loyal American.
Carlo Graziani
@Ksmiami: At the moment, Ukraine is receiving and stockpiling vast amounts of ammunition, equipment, and training inbound from the West, while not expending much of that stockpile on the defensive battles that are grinding down the Russian army. Meanwhile, it’s rainy and in the 40F-50F in Eastern Ukraine, meaning seas of mud, and added burden to Russian offensives. This is likely to go on through April, with mud drying out by the beginning of May. During that time, it seems likely that the Russians will continue to feed forces into hopeless assaults yielding insignificant gains in exchange for massive losses, because of the political imperatives driving their military policy.
Guess what the next act looks like.
NutmegAgain
@Jay: Thanks!
Jay
@NutmegAgain:
It’s the Ontario Vet Technician’s list, I assume it’s vetted, maybe Gin and Tonic can chime in.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
golf clap,…….
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
Glad to see the polity of one democracy revolting against the slide toward illiberalism & authoritarianism, but why give Netanyahu & his extremist coalition a majority to begin w/ in the last election?
Jay
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
they wern’t “given” a majority, they built a Parlementary majority through making deals with right and religious parties, while the “Opposition” couldn’t or were unwilling to make deals to counter.
YY_Sima Qian
Meanwhile, India had raided the BBC World Service’s office in the country a couple of weeks ago, & expelled a major opposition leader (Rahul Gandhi) from Parliament on seemingly spurious charges. There is a wave of Khalistani separatists demonstrating outside of Indian diplomatic missions across the Anglophone world.
Xi has yet to schedule the anticipated phone call w/ Zelenskyy, & a procession of European leaders to visit the country in the upcoming weeks. I don’t think it is tenable w/ the EU for Xi to have gone on a state visit to Moscow & not even talk w/ Zelenskyy, at a time some European capitals are seeking to engage w/ China in hope of restraining some of Putin’s more dangerous provocations (such as anything to do w/ nukes).
The Sino-Russian joint statement at the end of Xi’s visit specifically warns against nuclear powers deploying nukes outside of sovereign territories, the Putin goes ahead & announces that he is deploying nukes in Belarus (or maybe just nuke capable platforms, things are murky). Lukashenko just visited Beijing a couple of weeks ago. Maybe this is Putin signaling that he is not anyone’s “vassal”.
Then we have the skirmishing between the US & Iran heating up in Syria.
Shaping up to be an interesting time in global affairs.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: People still had to vote for the extremist parties in Bibi’s coalition, & it was obvious that Bibi would try to push through judicial “reforms” once elected, to protect himself from prosecution.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
This is analogous to asking “why elect Donald Trump President of the United States in the first place.” In my view, this is not the question shedding the most light on this moment in Israeli politics.
Democracies are always at risk of empowering demagogues. The real issue is whether the democratic institutions taken over by demagogues have the institutional resilience to resist corruption. And this is not an issue of constitutional law, so much as an issue of the degree to which constitutional norms have hardened in people’s heads. In the US, those norms were hard enough to repel Trump’s Brownshirt-style coup on January 6 2021—as I wrote in The Resumption of History, I believe that the US Government itself would have rejected the coup and taken Trump into custody, had the January 6 Putsch itself not resolved itself into a farcical pratfall.
Here, Israeli democracy faces a similar test. Are Israelis, of varied political stripes, sufficiently indoctrinated into their constitutional norms to reject a blatant subversion of those norms by Netanyahu? What happens in the days after the Knesset passes this misbegotten law obviously intended to protect Bibi from the consequences of his corruption? Will he, and it, be rejected by polity and governance reacting like an immune system attacking a pathogen? Or will he succeed in establishing new norms that undermine legal accountability in leadership—which is to say, creating institutional norms that normalizes (pecuniary and duty) corruption?
The Army revolt is intriguing in this respect. It suggests a real institutionalist limit that may be challenging for Bibi to overcome. I hope that’s right, because in the end, Israeli democracy could wind up being strengthened by this episode, if it establishes a narrative that solidifies the legal accountability of political leaders.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: I’m not following what’s happening in Israel carefully, but it’s been my impression that the demographic catastrophe facing Israel is the opposite of what’s happening in the US: here, the future is doom for white supremacy b/c the young are non-white. There, the future is doom for liberalism, b/c the ultra-Orthodox (who are paid to read the Torah and have kids) are the future.
I would hope I’m wrong.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Bibi cut deals that will end Israeli Democracy to keep his ass out of jail.
The “Opposition” knew that but were unwilling to cut deals that would compromise their vision of Israel.
Israeli politics have run right since 1967, when they were faced with the Land or Peace quandary. They want both, but can only have one.
So now, aside from the people in the streets and on strike, they have decided to abandon Democracy in a gasp to try to keep both the Land, and create a semi peace through aparthiad and oppression.
When Dayan walked journalists through the Gaza after 1967, he said, “look what a garden we will make out of this place”. The worlds largest open air prison camp.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay:
@Carlo Graziani:
Thanks for the great comments.
Would love to see Geminid’s take as well. I think as of last week he was still skeptical whether the protests would topple Netanyahu’s coalition, but things seem to have escalated since then.
Hangö Kex
(Reuters)
JAFD
Possibly of interest – This was a comment last evening on the “Classic Europa*” email list:
“Here’s a Telegram video of a Russian convoy from yesterday. It looks like two Studebakers following two Gaz-AAs or MMs. The GAZ – AA was a license-built version of the Ford Model AA bult from 1927-32, but I can’t tell exactly which version of GAZ it is. One of them might be a ZIS-5. …
Frank Watson”
video at https://t.me/The3rdForceUA/15776
* fans of the old board wargames
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(wargame)
https://boardgamegeek.com/wiki/page/The_Europa_Series
Have great week, everyone !
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: In the November 1 election, the popular vote totals among the pro-and anti-Netanyahu blocs were very close to equal. But two anti-Netanyahu parties- Meretz at 3.15% and Balad at 2.85%- failed to clear the 3.25% threshold for Knesset representation. So, what would have been 60-60 or 61-59 majority for the anti-Netanyahu bloc resulted in a 64-56 majority for Netanyahu’s 4 party coalition..
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian:
@Geminid: Current polling shows that the judiciary legislation is not popular even among Israelis who voted for the governing coalition. These polls also show all four parties losing Knesset members if a new election were held, so the party leaders are incentivised to keep the government together
Chief Oshkosh
@Jay: I agree. But it seems to me that you’ve just described the issue: political dithering. If the powers-that-be had a year ago done what they are (somewhat) proposing now wrt bags of money, the munitions gang would’ve ramped up by now. So is Ksmiami all that wrong? I don’t think so, but ymmv.
Torrey
@Carlo Graziani:
I’m late to the thread as always, but I’m afraid your view of the resilience of democracies may be overly optimistic. I think democracy requires a degree of idealism, and I think there is therefore a powerful tendency to trust the institution, particularly among those who are committed to the idea and ideals of democracy, in contrast to those who are focused primarily on getting power.
The problem is of course that the institutions are run by people, which means that idealism is somewhere between “not always” and “only rarely, if ever” justified. It’s not the fault of (all) those in the institutions themselves. “Keep your head down and wait until things get better” is a natural tendency among us worker bees. True, we saw the National Park Service push back against the Trump administration, way back at the beginning, but we also saw Comey kneecap Hillary because he thought the agents in the FBI field office would do it if he didn’t. We’ve also seen Trump’s gutting of the State Department, stopped only because he didn’t work fast enough to get more done before the election, and his and McConnell’s successful undermining of the Supreme Court, with the support of the entire Republican Senatorial caucus.
On the other hand, remembering way back when W was selected despite the vote count being stopped, the Democrats, for the most part, figured things would work themselves out. That is, they trusted the institutions: we’d had problematic elections before, and the U.S. has managed to keep going; it’ll be fine.
It took Trump’s excesses to alarm many people who are politically aware, and even so, many normies don’t seem that worried about the post-Trump Trumplets like DeSantis.
In that connection, I think Chetan Murthy has a good point WRT Israel’s population situation, as well. The population is trending towards a tightly focused conservatism, and the ultra-Orthodox don’t seem to mind top-down authoritarianism, as long as their idea of who should by nature be on top is adhered to.
Carlo Graziani
@Torrey: I’m not arguing that the psychology of democratic institutionalism constitutes unbreakable armor, nor even that it cannot be weakened over time.
I am saying that a deeply-socialized respect for democratic institutions can offer surprising resilience against the efforts of demagogues to corrupt those institutions by acting illegally. Note that most of the Trump administration actions that you cite, while despicable, were not illegal, but “merely” norm-breaking.
On the other hand, when Trump attempted to place himself above and outside the Constitution by the maneuvers that led up to the January 6 shitshow, even his own staff were so nauseated that many quit or subverted his wishes. Political appointees and civil servants across government were even more uniformly appalled, and I contend (conterfactually, but whatevs) that had that shambolic insurrection somehow succeeded in stopping the count and interfering with the legitimate transition, there would have been a massive revolt within the Federal Government to restore the Constitutional order.
These attitudes are what the right wing is complaining about when they fulminate against the “Deep State”. They use that term more loosely than its original National Security State/secrecy regime meaning, to cover all rule-based governance that doesn’t immediately submit to political power, and in their own terms they aren’t wrong. But that resistance is bred in with American popular attitudes towards governance and corruption. Americans will tolerate misgovernance and bad faith, but not the corruption of their institutions. That is what we learned on January 6 2021.
Anyway, that’s the framework that I find interesting to apply to this moment in Israeli politics. It doesn’t really matter that Israelis are becoming more conservative, in fact that kind of sharpens the question: have 75 years of Israeli democratic experience created the kind of institutionalist mentality that may tolerate despicable but constitutionally-legal policy, while revolting at efforts to corrupt and subvert the institutions of democracy themselves?
Because to my way of thinking, that is the real threshold for resilience of a democratic state against the ancient threat of demagogy.