(Image by NEIVANMADE)
It was an exceedingly long, though productive, day today. So just the essentials tonight.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
At the state level, everything is being done to increase the ability to defend against Russian strikes – address by the President of Ukraine
19 April 2023 – 23:47
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I am on my way back from a working trip.
Today I was in Volyn, visited our border guards, on the border, in particular, with Belarus. Arrangement of the border, defense, development of the border area – many issues. Volyn shows true strength, and this is felt in the way the region strengthens the security of the entire state.
I awarded our border guards… Together with all our defense and security forces, border guards are fighting on the frontline, particularly in the most difficult areas. Bakhmut, Donetsk region in general… True heroes who successfully completed hundreds and hundreds of combat missions.
We are also preparing new units – units of border guards in particular – that will join our active actions, the movement that we are gradually building up.
We constantly work on the development of our regions – absolutely all of them. Today in Volyn, I held a broad meeting with the region’s leaders, local law enforcers, military personnel, and all those responsible for the security and social condition of the region. We agreed on several infrastructure projects that will strengthen Volyn – this is important – and will make it possible to guarantee long-term jobs and economic growth. I am sure that we will definitely implement all this. Very soon.
We continue to prepare our international steps not only for this week, but in general for the near future. The defense of Ukraine, the rules-based international order remain the number one issue on the global agenda.
By the way, I am grateful to the United States for another package of military support announced today.
And today I would like to note separately our defenders of the sky – the Air Forces and the corresponding units of other branches of the troops.
At the state level, everything is being done to increase the ability to defend against Russian strikes. Air defense systems and other weapons to protect the sky are already here in Ukraine, they are really powerful. But they should be – and, I am sure, will be – even more powerful.
I am thankful to everyone who, with their accuracy and speed, ensures the effectiveness of all the weapons that our state has received!
Soldiers of the 160th Odesa anti-aircraft missile brigade of the “South” air command and mobile fire groups of the 164th Slobidska radio engineering brigade of the “East” air command were particularly effective this night. Thank you! During the day, our soldiers protected the skies of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Kyiv, the region, other cities, other regions of ours…
Glory to each and every one who is now fighting for our country, for the sake of Ukraine!
Glory to our strong people!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update from the Ukrainian MOD today. However, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Malar provided this statement:
Bakhmut:
Remarkable report on how Ukrainian border guards, along with other defense forces, hold the line in Bakhmut day after day.https://t.co/pGZd1QnyqF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 19, 2023
Here’s the full video from that second tweet:
Vuhledar and Avdiivka:
Reports in the media that russia has canceled the "tank biathlon" competition in 2023 are false. The russian national team continues to triumph, most notably at tournaments in Vuhledar and Avdiivka, near Kreminna. However, currently playing the role of targets.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 19, 2023
Kharkiv:
The terrorist state launched an airstrike on Vovchansk, Kharkiv region,late in the evening of Apr 18. As is so often the case, the targets of russian bombs were purely civilian objects – the densely built-up town center and the market place. Two residents of the town were killed. pic.twitter.com/UWGdOFwXPb
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 19, 2023
As said, the destruction of 4 Russian MT-12 100-mm anti-tank guns and 2 trucks for transporting ammunition. By the 10th brigade of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/j1x70CnRq3
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 19, 2023
Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade’s motto is “With a shield or on a shield!” Our’s is “Climb to Glory!” Either way, well done! And, from the brigade combat team I was assigned to – the Iron Brigade – always Strike Hard!
Here’s some stuff for you logistics afficionados:
/2. Also, according to Spiegel information, Sweden also transferred 12 Iris-T SLS systems to Germany. Currently, a search is underway for vehicles on which these systems can be placed in order to be able to deliver them to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/fxwF9205c0
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 19, 2023
And here’s today’s DOD announcement of the latest round of material and equipment going to Ukraine:
IMMEDIATE RELEASEBiden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
April 19, 2023Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced critical new security assistance for Ukraine. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance with more ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS, artillery rounds, and anti-armor capabilities essential to strengthening Ukraine’s defenders on the battlefield valued at up to $325 million.
The Presidential Drawdown is the thirty-sixth such drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine that the Biden Administration has authorized since August 2021. The capabilities in this package include:
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
- AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems;
- Anti-tank mines;
- Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing;
- Over 9 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
- Four logistics support vehicles;
- Precision aerial munitions;
- Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
- Port and harbor security equipment;
- Spare parts and other field equipment.
The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.
This is a smart assessment:
Former Yermak's advisor Oleksiy Arestovych says it is essential for Ukraine to prepare for the second war with Russia in 4-6 years' time. He believes Russia will attempt to learn from mistakes and have another go, similarly to the Second Chechen War. pic.twitter.com/hLz3bciCXu
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 19, 2023
Especially if the strategy that I highlighted the other night from Haas and Kupchan is adopted.
Well this happened!
Oh dear lord, I can’t describe it how I want this country to be a very dull and boring place
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 19, 2023
Because it’s Ukraine, I wouldn’t have been too surprised if this was a real alien invasion at Kyiv.
And the Martians would be like: “Fuck this shit, we’re abandoning our tripods. We can’t defeat those dudes with yellow scotch tape armbands.”— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 19, 2023
— Ukrainian Memes Forces (@uamemesforces) April 19, 2023
Obligatory:
That’s enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
I visited the Ambassador of Japan in Ukraine @JPEmbUA We discussed the demining, and I conveyed gratitude from all the Ukrainians for the Japanese help. That's how I like to say: "Arigato to you," well, only in dog language🤭 pic.twitter.com/sZYWPj05qN
— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 19, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Я не жартую :)) #песпатрон #патрондснс
The machine translation of the caption is:
I’m not joking. :)) #песпатрон#патрондснс
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Since some of us aren’t done laughing at Sarah Bils, here’s a great audio clip. Some dude on her podcast, clearly American, says “Donbas Devushka” with an American accent. So a russian speaker correctly pronounces “devushka” — and then our friend Sarah *corrects him* — incorrectly, of course, and says “roll the D a little”. Which isn’t actually a thing in any Slavic language. Yeah, I’m having more fun with this than I probably should.
Anoniminous
Don’t laugh at wire guided TOW missiles. In the Yom Kippur War they achieved 90% hit rates. Kill rates depended on the target and where the target was hit. They’ve only gotten better since. The Ukrainians have been using them to good effect in Bakhmut.
And at $93,640 a pop they are a damn sight cheaper than Javelins at $240,000 per.
ETA: the “don’t laugh” thing was entirely serendipitous.
Roger Moore
@Anoniminous:
The TOW is a classic example of success breeding success. It worked well enough that everyone wanted to buy them. Because everyone wanted them, they could manufacture in bulk and bring the price down. Because there were lots of them, they were worth investing in improvements. Because they made improvements, they worked even better and everyone wanted them more. Lather, rinse, repeat. There’s a reason a missile fielded more than 50 years ago is still in production.
MomSense
I’ve lost my ability to be civil when people say fucking stupid blame NATO for Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine. JFC there are some senior hippies who cannot grasp the reality that Russia is an oligarchic petrochemical state ruled by a psychopathic dictator.
I may have to start counter protesting these fucking assholes.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: lol
The Pale Scot
Why is my Spidey Sense twitching?
karen marie
@The Pale Scot: Let me guess who owns that satellite.
Gin & Tonic
More linguistic fun. Russia apparently intercepted this audio of “NATO soldiers” talking about targeting. The russian-appointed guy in charge of Zaporizhzhia says “by accent it is difficult to determine which country the mercenaries are from.”
I had no difficulty determining where they’re from.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: OMG
Adam L Silverman
Also, everyone ignore the social media posts claiming the Russians blew up a NATO training facility in Lviv with a khinzal and killed several hundred US and allied general officers and senior uniformed personnel. There’s no such facility. There was no khinzal strike. We don’t have that many generals.
karen marie
@Gin & Tonic: “Right on!”
I’m screaming!
NutmegAgain
Klaatu barada nikto!
(No idea about translations for that…)
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I must have missed that one.
Chetan Murthy
@karen marie: “sim cards”!!!
Bill Arnold
@MomSense:
Add revanchist and imperialistic and change state to kleptocracy and I would agree. Though “pathocracy” is arguably more appropriate.
I’m with Carlo last night; the Russian Federation’s activities interfering with the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections are not easily forgiven.
Just the loss of momentum vs global heating/GHG emissions during the Trump administration was an act of mass murder and mass extinction.
And separation of Mr. D.J. Trump from the levers of power was costly, in several senses.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: And the guy says “Ukrainians” but the caption says “хохлы”. They couldn’t find an English equivalent for that.
Anoniminous
@MomSense:
People from my old New Lefty past who used to be capable of rational analysis have turned into raving fruit bats, incapable of using their brains for a purpose other than keeping their ears apart and heads from imploding.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
Saggar’s not TOW’s. Israel didn’t receive TOW missiles until 1974, and their first use was in the 1982 Lebanon War.
Saggar’s use a small joystick on a control box.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M14_Malyutka
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
“How do you do, fellow NATO soldiers?”
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It might help if I could spell kinzhal correctly.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: What kind of name is Vajrayana?
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia:
Aha, not Russian.
Anoniminous
@Jay:
The U.S. supplied the missiles to Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Sources: Popular Mechanics and personal conversations with the guys who built the things at the time. That was around the time Raytheon was about to or just had bought the weapon from Hughes – can’t remember which this many decades later. They wanted to hire me because I was a Real Time microprocessor hardware/software cross-over nerd.
Jay
HumboldtBlue
Jay
@Anoniminous:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M14_Malyutka
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/1973-yom-kippur-war-gave-world-horrifying-glimpse-what-modern-mechanized-warfare-would
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGM-71_TOW
Carlo Graziani
@Steeplejack: “Where are your nuclear wessels?”
LordAvebury
{Deleted.]
Manyakitty
@Carlo Graziani: always the right time for a Chekov reference 😄👏
Tom Levenson
@Anoniminous: Do not insult fruit bats who are elegant and inoffensive creatures.
Another Scott
@Jay: OTOH, …
JTA.org:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Another Scott:
From your cite,…..
BTW that’s the LAW, not the Low.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M72_LAW
Syrian and Israeli clashes over the Golan Heights continued into 1974, mostly harassment.
In the Yom Kippur War it was the Saggar that had the massive kill ratio. Unlike the TOW, the Saggar, which is pretty much obsolete these days, is fired and controlled by a prone operator, lying on the ground or in a scrape, is guided by eye, and the whole set up is less that 2 feet tall, with the launcher/missile being the tallest portion. The launcher/missile can also be 6 feet away from the operator.
http://www.military-today.com/missiles/malyutka.htm
BGM-71 TOW
Another Scott
@Jay: Ooh. A link battle! ;-)
Here’s another – PopularMechanics.com:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
Russian agitprop has been making such claims since the siege of Mariupol, never w/ any credibility (but that goes w/ Russian agitprop by definition).
Lyrebird
Have all the fun you want! I will now think of her as Dave-oozhka.
And “roll the D” goes up there with the “Fraunch Fries” line in some stupid teen movie I once watched, but at least that actress was making a fool of herself (her role) on purpose!
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
I hope Ukraine is getting the BGM-71E versions w/ tandem warheads to defeat the reactive armor that is common on Russian main battle tanks, or better yet the F versions w/ top attack capability.
Ruckus
@Anoniminous:
If you roasted those brains they MIGHT make OK door stops.
I wouldn’t bet on it though.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Hey. Welcome back.
Jay
@Another Scott:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War
So, in less than a day, the IDF received TOW’s, trained Operators on it and rushed them to the front that was already won?
Popular Mechanic’s said you would have a flying car in 1963, so you are your 5th one now, right?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
there are photo’s of the F model in Ukraine, being fired from the M41A7 TOW HMMWV-mounted ITAS.
Glad to see you back, we missed you.
AlaskaReader
@MomSense: I have read that the Pope tried to blame NATO. I have heard Putin try to blame NATO.
Could you name these ‘hippies’ you speak of?
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Thanks! Work & life have intervened for the past couple of weeks. Now that Chinese borders have reopened, US based corporate & division leaders are now all rushing back to reconnect w/ local teams, suppliers and customers. & it is a very different competitive environment in China from pre-pandemic, across a multitude of sectors.
I still read Adam’s posts & all of the comments everyday, but did not have anything of value to contribute.
I was also distracted by all of the brouhaha over Lee Hsien-Long’s (Singaporean PM), Anwar’s (Malaysian PM), Macron/van der Leyen’s, Braerbock’s, & Lula’s visits to China, & their various pronouncements.
Macron supposedly has asked his foreign policy advisor to work w/ China to develop the terms upon which Ukraine & Russia might be brought to the negotiating table. If true, it is a naively fanciful exercise. 1st, it is clear China is not investing any skin into peace in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, & instead is leaning further into its entente w/ Russia as a bulwark in its Great Power Competition(TM) w/ the US. 2nd, neither Ukraine nor Russia are interested in talking right now. The only ways the war ends is either Ukraine pushing Russian invaders outside of its borders (which will take the rest of the year even under the most optimistically imaginable scenario), or if both Ukraine & Russia become exhausted years down the line & sue for Armistice that freezes the conflict along whichever Line of Actual Control at the time (which would be a terrible & terribly unjust outcome for Ukraine). The point about Putin trying to come back in a few years a la 2nd Chechen War is an overlooked but very valid one.
Macron’s energies are better focused on forging EU unity/coherence & developing military capabilities so that Europe is not so dependent on the US for security, leading edge technology, & global finance. That is the true foundation for any European strategic autonomy.
I have also been relieved that the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s transits through the US & meeting w/ House Speaker McCarthy did not set off the Fifth Taiwan Strait Crisis. It seems Beijing, DC & Taipei still retain some competence in crisis management, but I don’t have much confidence in their skills at creating conditions that prevent crises from emerging in the 1st place.
Then there are the developments in the ME, w/ Saudi Arabia & Iran continuing their prescribed program of normalizing relations, facilitated by Beijing. Iran even invited the Saudi King for an official visit (would be very interesting to see if MBS actually goes, no way King Salman cross the Persian Gulf). The Gulf States are also renormalizing relations w/ Assad, & Qatar & the UAE are renormalizing relations w/ each other as well. A large prisoner exchange happened in Yemen, & there seems to be progress toward formally ending the ruinous Civil War there. Things are shifting in the ME, toward what I can’t say.
Finally, there has been an interesting series of signals from US allies & partners that suggests discomfiture & quietly expressed alarm at the escalating Sino-US geopolitical rivalry, & attempting to chart out their own strategies for managing China’s rise that assert their own agencies & interests (which prizes coordination w/ the US as ideal but not yoked to the hostile US bi-partisan consensus wrt China). There is Macron’s controversial comments during the return from Beijing (which I don’t think are that controversial in Western Europe, but Politico.eu did a hatchet job on translation & selective quoting), van der Leyen’s address the European Parliament, Australian FM Penny Wong’s speech a couple of days ago. Lee Hsien-Long has been speaking for the ASEAN countries on this since 2018. (All of their comments take multipolarity as a given, which is the position of Global South countries too, even though it seems to be a dirty word in DC.) Even Taiwan’s politely declining McCarthy’s visit to the island.
I have always thought that constraint on China & the US to stop a dangerous turn toward a new Cold War & global fragmentation can only come from middle powers & small powers banding together. I am increasing pessimistic as to whether Beijing & DC can steer clear of that fate themselves. Unlike immediately following WW II or for much of the Cold War, however, power & wealths are much less concentrated among great powers, so middle & small powers have a better chance of prevailing over the great powers if they can coalesce around some common positions. Perhaps we are witnessing the beginnings of this development. Of course, there are middle powers that look to egg on the Sino-US Cold War: Russia (the worse the Sino-US relations, the more leverage Russia might have over China), India (Modi seems to want India to reprise China’s role in the latter 3rd of Cold War 1.0 & reap the same benefits), the UK (because the Tories can’t seem to conceive of the UK’s relevance in global affairs as anything other than the US’ most loyal sidekick).
For the past few weeks I have had the feeling that geopolitical forces are moving at an accelerated pace, but direction is utterly opaque.
patrick II
The Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense has confirmed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has started:
Reporting from Ukraine
Manyakitty
@YY_Sima Qian: hey there! Glad to see you again, been missing your comments.
Manyakitty
@Lyrebird: that movie is ‘Better Off Dead’ and is a CLASSIC. That particular scene leaves me in tears every time because of its ridiculousness. 😂😂
Another Scott
@Anoniminous: @Jay:
Another. NationalInterest.org:
Even if you don’t like the linkies, you haven’t addressed Anoniminous’s personal conversations with people who were actually involved.
Wikipedia is great, but is not the only source of knowledge on this stuff.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
MomSense
@AlaskaReader:
Peace Action Maine.