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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 488: Zelenskyy Goes to Donetsk, Prigozhin Speaks, Putin Also Speaks

War for Ukraine Day 488: Zelenskyy Goes to Donetsk, Prigozhin Speaks, Putin Also Speaks

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It was a very long Monday. Which followed a very long weekend. So I’m just going to run through what I think are the basics and hit publish.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s speech from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Today, our warriors have advanced in all directions, and this is a happy day – address by the President of Ukraine

27 June 2023 – 00:30

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today – the front. Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia. Our warriors, our frontline positions, areas of active operations at the front. Today, our warriors have advanced in all directions, and this is a happy day. I wished the guys more days like this.

I paid a visit to the Khortytsia units that distinguished themselves heroically in the Battle of Bakhmut. Well done, warriors! Then our marines – very powerful, very accurate. Thank you for doing your best to save the lives of our warriors. Then Tavria, the south, the front. It was a busy day, a lot of emotions… I was honored to award our warriors, to thank them personally, to shake their hands. Thank you for all your words of support, guys! Thank you for your hugs, very warm ones, to everyone today. And thank you for your chevrons – it is extremely honorable for me, and I will tell about each chevron separately. All our warriors – from soldiers to sailors to generals – are doing a great job!

I presented two Gold Stars of the Hero of Ukraine – to Captain Oleh Olyva, commander of the airmobile company of the 81st separate airborne assault brigade, and Major Serhiy Dudin, deputy commander of the marine battalion of the 35th separate brigade. Indeed, they are great people, thank you!

Meetings with generals… Zubanych, Tarnavskyi, Sodol, Syrskyi. Several operational decisions were made. Once again, we discussed the creation of the Marine Corps, all the details are clear, absolutely clear – organization, training, supply… We are strengthening the Marines and all elements of our Defense Forces, it is a must.

Yesterday, I had talks with partners, including President Biden, primarily about arms supplies.

Today, I was in the area where these weapons will give more power, more protection to Ukrainians’ lives. And bring our victory closer, this is the main thing. All our land will be free – all of it.

I thank everyone who is now fighting for Ukraine, who is preparing for combat, who is on combat missions, who is at combat posts… All those who are recovering from injuries… All those who are training our warriors! Thank you all! I am proud of all of you! Glory to you, our heroes!

And eternal blessed memory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine, each and every one of them!

Glory to Ukraine!

Secretary of Defense Austin and Minister of Defense Reznikov had a phone conversation today. Here is the DOD’s readout:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov
June 25, 2023

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke today with Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov to discuss regional security developments and dynamics on the ground in Ukraine. Secretary Austin reiterated unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine and discussed security assistance priorities to meet Ukraine’s needs on the battlefield.

The two leaders pledged to remain in close contact.

Bakhmut:

Rivnopil:

A gas station in the Donetsk Region:

Kyiv:

The left bank of the Dnipro:

Voronezh Region:

Here’s Prigozhin’s speech with English subtitles:

Here’s Dmitri’s translation and summary of Prigozhin’s speech today. Full text of the tweet below the tweet.

Summary of Prigozhin’s 26 June address to clarify the situation: it was to demonstrate protest against the “destruction of PMC Wagner, not toppling the Russian authorities”:

What were the prerequisites for the March for Justice?
– PMC Wagner carries out tasks around the world. It was meant to stop existing on 1 July 2023. “Employees” all refused to sign the contract with MoD, only 1-2% decided to join the Russian army.

– The original plan was to go to Rostov on 30 July and transfer all vehicles to MoD, which were ready for transport.

– Despite any aggression, Wagner suffered a missile attack, followed by helicopter attack. Around 30 PMC Wagner fighters died. This triggered an immediate decision to move out early and respond militarily.

– Throughout the 24-hour march, one column went to Moscow, another to Rostov. They made 780 km of progress in one day. They regret being forced to attack the army aircraft but the bombs were dropped which caused the response. During the march, all military objects on the way were blocked and disarmed. None of the military have died on the ground.

– The objective was to not allow destruction of Wagner and take to responsiblity those who with their unprofessional actions made a huge number of mistakes during the SMO. All the military met along the way supported this.

– Wagner stopped when the advanced storm unit deployed artillery, conducted reconnaissance and realised a lot of blood will be shed in an upcoming battle. They decided that demonstration of the protest was enough, and turned around.

– Factors that made Wagner turn around: first, they didn’t want to shed Russian blood. Secondly, they wanted to demonstrate their portest, not overtake the authority in Russia.

– Lukashenko offered to find solutions for further legal operation of Wagner legally. Columns turned aroound and went back to field camps.

– The march showed many things demonstrated before. Serious secruity concerns around the country. All military bases and airfields were blocked.

– If actions on 24 Feb 2022 were done by forces as trained as Wagner, the special operation could have ended in 1 day. This shows the level of organisation that the Russian army should be following.

Audio: https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304

Here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s assessment of Prigozhin’s remarks. Full text below the tweet:

The thing is: Prigozhin was always about himself and his desire to get away with the situation in which he was to be erased by the Kremlin.

One of Russia’s greatest corruption dealers couldn’t care less about corruption in the military as he has been making insane fortunes from that for decades:

And yeah, Russia’s greatest butcher, the master of meat grinder assaults and suicidal convicts couldn’t care less about “the lives of our boys” in this “criminal war unleashed by power-greedy imbeciles and oligarchs.”

He showed off against the cowardly dictator who had already fled Moscow (unbelievable!) and he got what he wanted.

And Putin has again demonstrated his weakness and his readiness to accept any sort of L and draw away from his own words for the sake of spending one more day on the throne.

Of course, Shoigu is to stay. All this time Prigozhin only pretended to be angry about Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s incompetence to gain popular support and portray himself as “the only one who really cares.”

He cared about nothing but himself. A lying thug is always a lying thug, be it in the streets or in charge of a giant mercenary army.

What’s really striking to me is that his most senior Sardaukars, including Wagner himself, trusted him and followed him in this fake coup. They really had a plan and they were really believing they were to take the throne.

In reality, they were ordered to stop 200 kms away from Moscow when their boss’ plan to scare the living shit out of Putin and his cronies succeed.

Prigozhin is now very probably getting safe retirement amid endless wealth (we don’t really know what he traded and what guarantees his safety), while his former dogs of war up to the elbow in blood are very much screwed up.

Here’s Meduza‘s Kevin Rothrock’s take:

And here’s Putin’s full address with English subtitles:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

76Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    Ugh, not gonna watch either prig or putin’s videos. I’ll trust the summaries and just assume that it was mostly “blah blah blah I’m a mendacious evil sack of shit”.

    Such a contrast with Zelenskyy — you can see clear mutual respect between him and the troops, and it’s really wonderful. Unlike the rare occasion when putin makes a staged visit to some orcs and their wooden smiles all give a real “look how happy I am please don’t kill me” vibe.

    “Employees” all refused to sign the contract with MoD

    At first glance, I thought that said McD and I was like…wtf McDonald’s?

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  2. 2.

    cain

    Thanks for this great update and the time to publish it, very much appreciated!

    Im not sure how any of these people aren’t going to defenestrated. But yeah, it really shows how weak Russia is. I’m still curious as to how the other satellite countries around Russia like Georgia is going to perceive this weakness.

  3. 3.

    bbleh

    I don’t know how you manage to keep this up day after day.  It’s amazing.  Hats off!

    And re Zelenskyy, I know there are good arguments that history is not made by individual men but rather by larger movements, but in this case … damn.

  4. 4.

    Another Scott

    Prigozhin’s statement makes it clear that the man who took 10 months to capture Bakhmut would totally have captured Kiev in 3 days.

    — Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) June 26, 2023

    Thanks Adam.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  5. 5.

    Urza

    Adam, is there anything to this talk that Putin has already decided to go back on the deal to let Prigohzin go as long as he lives in Belarus? Or is that just chatter for now among people how know nothing.

  8. 8.

    Carlo Graziani

    Quoth Ponomarenko:

    Of course, Shoigu is to stay.

    I’m not sure about this, but it is an indicator to watch. One possible take on the political situation is that Putin is in a much weaker position vis-a-vis MOD, and needs to do something to appease them.

    The fact of the matter is, a lot of officers despise Shoigu almost as much as they hate Prigozhin (Shoigu’s service record is pretty thin, as he’s not really career military), and blame him for the Army’s diminished control in decision-making, as well as for abetting Putin in protecting Prigozhin while he blagged them mercilessly over the Bakhmut supply situation. And, of course, they want someone to pay for Wagner shooting down their aircraft, and they can presumed to be livid that Prigozhin is rewarded with a Belarusan vacation instead of with a bullet in the back of the skull.

    Putin’s divide-and-conquer style of statesmanship has fallen apart, and he needs to buy good will at MOD. Giving up Shoigu would be a sign that he’s moving to shore up his weak MOD-side political flank. On the other hand, if Shoigu stays, it’s a sign that he still feels he has the whip hand over MOD.

    I think he’ll have to drop Shoigu. But it will be interesting to see the call one way or the other.

  9. 9.

    japa21

    Thank you Adam for providing the updates on what is happening in Ukraine. We know Ukraine is pretty tight lipped about what they are doing and don’t really announce anything until a couple days after it happens. As I mentioned once before, it is telling that Russia is doing very little bragging about stopping Ukraine’s advances. This isn’t going to be like the fall offenses. Yet, by fall, the map will probably look very different.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Urza: At this point there is so much info swirling out there, some legit, some analysis, some clearly RUMINT, that all I can say is we have to wait and see. I think it is likely that one of the guys running the various wet works programs at GRU and SVR will just take it upon themselves on the assumption it would make Putin happy.

  14. 14.

    Roger Moore

    @Urza:

    Adam, is there anything to this talk that Putin has already decided to go back on the deal to let Prigohzin go as long as he lives in Belarus?

    I assume it’s just speculation, though anyone who trusts a deal with Putin deserves what they get.  My assumption is that Putin made the deal because he’s weak, but that he’ll try to renege as soon as a good opportunity presents itself.  Prigozhin should probably live on the ground floor and not trust any food or drink he hasn’t personally prepared.

  15. 15.

    japa21

    @Adam L Silverman: Agreed, we can but hope, in fact, must hope.  But I think we have good things happening to base our hopes on.  I know all of us here are willing to be patient and not doing the tankies’ “Oh, they haven’t kicked Russia out yet, the counteroffensive is a failure” thing.

  17. 17.

    Bupalos

    @Roger Moore: my take is that prigozhin played it pretty smart pr wise, and it’s not that clear that putin would gain anything by his death now. In fact, he might need to try and use him.

  19. 19.

    New Deal democrat

    A few days ago I read a little note about several small Ukrainian scouting parties on the east side of the Dnipro River at Oleshky and the Anatovsky Bridge. So I looked up where the Russian trenches were in that region:

    https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1672029376001753091?cxt=HHwWhoDSqfr2nrQuAAAA

    if you establish a bridgehead in those two locations, it looks like you have a straight shot SSE all the way to the head of the Crimea peninsula, and to the rear of the Russian forces tied up east of the former reservoir.

    A few hours ago I read in several places, e.g., here:

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1673389363357425669?cxt=HHwWioCx3dGwibkuAAAA

    that Ukraine’s forces may be starting to cross at those two locations in strength.

  20. 20.

    Andrya

    @Adam L Silverman:  To quote Mary Renault’s “The Bull from the Sea”:   “Every king has men about him to whom he need only look a wish. But there is evil beyond one’s reach, as there is good.”

    Or, to quote Henry II of England:  “Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?”

    ETA:  I did not mean to imply that there is evil beyond vvp’s reach.  I doubt there is.

  21. 21.

    Roger Moore

    @Bupalos:

    it’s not that clear that putin would gain anything by his death now.

    The key word being “now”.  I sincerely doubt Putin trusts Prigozhin at all at this point, and powerful people Putin doesn’t trust need to watch their back.  Putin probably won’t want Prigozhin killed right away, but he’ll want revenge once everything is over.  And, of course, that assumes Prigozhin doesn’t cause any further problems.  His life expectancy could get pretty short if he becomes a thorn in Putin’s side again.

  22. 22.

    Bill Arnold

    Vova P is concerned about the siloviki.

    Putin is talking with “siloviki” block now: prosecurtor Krasnov,heads of MVD Kololtsev,FSB -Bortnikovdefense minister Shoigu,Zolotv, Kochnev, Bastrykin and even Vaino, the author of Nooskop, “a devise that allows to study collective mind of the humanity.” https://t.co/3MEgAPNL3f
    — Anna Nemtsova (@annanemtsova) June 26, 2023

    And for fun, since the tweet references it:
    Nooscope mystery: The strange device of Putin’s new man Anton Vaino (19 August 2016)
    Diagram: Protocol model of how the relationship between time and space formsw

    Appears to be unrelated to this, which has a glorious diagram at the beginning.
    nooscope.ai

  23. 23.

    Van Buren

    My truly miserable principal announced her retirement today. In her speech to the staff she said she was over how horribly we had treated herand forgave us, and then dredged up a dispute from 2011 that she and I had had as evidence that she bore no grudges….and concluded by saying, and i quote, “I’m retiring because I am tired of you people”

    So, this explains why I am drinking champagne on a Monday.

  24. 24.

    Gin & Tonic

    A quick explanatory note, as I said when I posted that Zelensky-in-the-gas-station video earlier today. He’s in an OKKO station, which are ubiquitous around Ukraine, and are like a Sheetz or Wawa or whatever your local equivalent is: gas, coffee, snacks, hot dogs, heartburn, everything you need.

    But I really came here to say thanks to Adam for his efforts in following the situation and publishing these updates. I spent the weekend in the company of someone who has a direct professional interest in this, and saw how fast-moving and, frankly, all-consuming it was.

  25. 25.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: When someone tweets “Putin’s plane has been turned back from Kazakhstan,” I’m like, I’ll wait and see what Adam has to say.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: I remember the last time Zelenskiyy did this, someone tweeted that he should buy a hot dog.  I looked ’em up, and Ukrainian hot dogs are ….. well they’re nothing like the wan industrial extrusions we get in America.  I’d go for one of those Okko dogs.

  28. 28.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
     
    re: OKO, could this be the same station he stopped at last time?

    You told us about OKO-dogs before, but given that it’s a Defence Ministry video, I assume it’s not the same video.

    Health and protection to him, thanks to you and to Adam for sure!

  30. 30.

    Hangö Kex

    @Bupalos: Russia would seem to need Wagner (and therefore Prigozhin) for the ongoing operations in Africa (and possibly new foreign ones) so he gets to set up shop in Belarus for these (despite his armed rebellion stunt, or, strange as it is, as a reward for it).

  34. 34.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: All of Eastern and Central Europe nations appear to have a special place in their hearts for sausage and cured meats. There’s a Polish/Ukrainian market near where I work where that section is larger and more variously stocked than any other part of the store, with stuff I’ve never seen anywhere else. Makes for interesting browsing.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    @Van Buren: She seems nice.  //

    Seriously, though, if that’s how you felt, who wouldn’t want to be able to say that in a retirement speech?  That had to feel pretty good from her perspective.

  38. 38.

    Brachiator

    @Van Buren:

    and concluded by saying, and i quote, “I’m retiring because I am tired of you people”

    Wow. Enjoy your champagne.

  39. 39.

    Captain C

    @zhena gogolia: He seems to enjoy stealing too.  He’s basically Jimmy Conway from Goodfellas but with Tommy DeVito’s generosity and regard for humanity.

  43. 43.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Thank you Adam, for these posts & directing us to vetted sources. Your ability to explain and add context this past weekend is much appreciated.

  44. 44.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @Alison Rose:

    I’ll trust the summaries and just assume that it was mostly “blah blah blah I’m a mendacious evil sack of shit”.

    That’s all the summary I need.

    Thanks Adam, Alison, everyone. It’s hard reading this day after day, yet harder for you and of course the people of Ukraine.

  48. 48.

    sanjeevs

    Last winter I was on a walk and got chatting to a retired Dutch academic whose specialty was the history of the Russian security services – NKVD, KGB, FSB etc

    I said things must be interesting in his field now. He said he really struggles to stay current – it’s just too complicated and too depressing with each iteration worse than the last.

    I imagine he’s happy to be retired these days.

  54. 54.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Anoniminous: Thanks for posting that. For everyone’s info, while the words are original, the melody is from an old Polish/Ukrainian folk song called “Hey, sokoly!” (Hey, falcons.) If you use “Гей соколи” as a search string in YouTube you’ll find many versions. As with so many Ukrainian folk songs, it involves the sorrow of a girl when her (boyfriend/husband?), a Cossack, goes off to do battle for the freedom of Ukraine.

  55. 55.

    Bill Arnold

    @pluky:

    Will no one rid me of this turbulent warlord?

    Mr. Prigozhin is many things; he has demonstrated that he is not a cowardly oligarch. And mutiny[1] aside, he is (appears to be) basically loyal to Russia.
    If he maintains 100 percent discipline, he will not be an easy assassination target, assuming no strike with hypersonic cruise missiles or similar heavy military action; Russian security services have a mixed wet-work record over the last decade+. (Basically, saying that if there are > 0 attempts, decent odds that they fail.)
    I was once told by members of a family (not Mob) that they had a wait-2-years rule for revenge. If one still cares after 2 years, the target is probably no longer being watchful.
    One interesting facet is that the mutiny[1] appears to have weakened Vova P’s political position; haven’t seen much speculation on whether this was one of Mr. Prigozhin’s goals.

    [1] ‘Mutiny” seems the consensus theory/narrative ATM. Might shift.

  56. 56.

    Geminid

    Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) cited reporting today that Wagner intends to establish two bases in Belarus, accommodating up to 10,000 of its people. This could be an aspirational plan, or just rumor.

    So where are the Wagner forces in Russia? There are reports that may be credible that, while they evacuated the city of Rostov, some of them still occupy a nearby air base.

    So will Prigozhin actually go to Belarus? Maybe, but I don’t think he’ll be safe without at least 1,000 Wagner troops protecting him. A hundred or even two hundred won’t cut it.

    So if Prigoxhin is in Rostov, his safest play might be to hole up there with his remaining forces for awhile. I’m not sure Shoigu’s forces could evict him.

    And while people are justifiably cautious as to the result the current Ukrainian offensive, there is a real possibility that Ukraine will evict Shoigu’s troops from their country before too long. Then the Russian troops that made it to Rostov would likely feel angry and betrayed.. They might be eager to join Prigozhin in a much more powerful March for Justice 2.0.

  58. 58.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: IMO, the chances of Lukashenka passively agreeing to “Wagner bases” on Belarusan territory are zero. Belarus may be a Russian vassal state, but they have no interest in being Mali 2.0.

    And, again, Wagner is basically just a personnel army, with few military assets and no serious logistical, transport, intelligence, or communications support outside of what Russia’s MOD grants them. If they are on the outs with the Russian state, they are well and truly fucked. They do not have control of the kind of state resources that have granted them such outsized global influence as they have. If they are not a Russian proxy, they are nothing.

  59. 59.

    The Pale Scot

    @Van Buren:

    So, this explains why I am drinking champagne on a Monday.

    Ohh.. My..

    Crazy people always be like “why u lookin’ at me’

  60. 60.

    Roberto el oso

    @Carlo Graziani: yes, and this is what is so puzzling about the ultimate destination of the Wagner personnel who are declining the “offer” to be absorbed into the Russian army. Is Belarus a jumping off point for their eventual return to Africa? Who will be  paying them while they presumably sit around making everyone nervous?

    And a somewhat related question. Does suddenly taking 25,000 armed combatants off the board mean that Kadryov and his band might be forced to actually find their way to the front and start fighting? So far they’ve been impressively good at avoiding that, it seems.

  61. 61.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: Yeah, I don’t think Lukashenko will tolerate Wagner bases either. That’s why I said this might be an aspirational plan or just rumor.

    As far as Wagner’s lack of control over critical resources, I will point out that Rostov Oblast is a major supply node for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Wagner might not need Ministry of Defense vouchers to take what they need, just a lot of hundred dollar bills to pay the train or warehouse guards.

    This obviously is still a developing and opaque situation. I do not know what is going on, and I’m not the only one. For instance, I don’t know the number of Wagner forces in the Rostov area, or the size of MOD-controlled forces and how effectively they are controlled. The MOD does have plenty of troops next door in Ukraine, but I wonder if an amount sufficient to suppress Wagner can be spared, or trusted either.

    But I am assuming that Prigozhin wants to survive, and I don’t see how he can hope to unless he remains with a substantial force of Wagner’s professional soldiers. I don’t see one besides the one in the Rostov area, and that’s why I’m saying the safer play for him may be to hole up there. Whereas going to Belarus is not at all a safe option.

  62. 62.

    coin operated

    I’m just thinking back on what one Finnish military advisor said when asked “How soon could Finnish armed forces be in Moscow if Article 5 was declared?”

    It was a crisp response…”In a week…if the Poles don’t get there first”

    Ol Prigo just verified that response.

  63. 63.

    Hangö Kex

    @Carlo Graziani: Wagner bases in Belarus would seem more tolerable provided Wagner doesn’t have much arms, especially the heavier kind at hand; these would just be a training/staging/administration home base for international (currently mostly African) operations, arms and other resources would be spoon-fed (arms in particular directly to where the operations are). The general idea would be de-fanging and exiling Wagner while keeping the international operations for which it was created in the first place (albeit without much plausible deniability left, then again it wasn’t ever really credible).

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: In my opinion, the pricipal problem with this analysis is that it casts Prigozhin as a capable conspiracist, rather than as the cognitively-impaired, emotionally-unregulated fatuous poltroon he presents as, and that he richly deserves to be judged to be according to the bottomless ineptitude of his choices.

    I mean, he mortally alienated his patron (whom he claims to love) by exposing the flimsy basis of Putin’s political dominance, while at the same time not succeeding at passing any metric of putsch plausibility, including securing any allies beforehand, prepositioning any kind of operatives in Moscow, or even removing his own family in advance from the blackmailing grasp of his sworn enemies.

    Because he had no plan. He got angry at MOD and started shooting at them, and challenging them for control, guided by a thought process that seems to have been someting along the lines of “I’ll have Wagner defeat regular army in battle in Russia, proving that Wagner should run MOD, and the scales will finally drop from Putin’s eyes, and he will love me like a brother again.” And he seemed confused when said love was not forthcoming from the supreme warlord whose power he was too boneheaded to understand he was endangering.

    He has no allies, may not even be able to convey himself safely to Belarus, where Lukashenka certainly doesn’t want him throwing his weight around, and between him and Mali is thousands of miles of airspace controlled by the air forces of nations according to whom he is under sanctions and subject to arrest on sight. Which is a much safer fate than he faces if he stays put. His life is the kind of insurance risk that probably makes his covict cannon fodder laugh their asses off right now.

    And it’s all because of his choices. He’s a moron. Sooner or later he’ll be a head on a spike because of this.

  65. 65.

    Torrey

    @Gin & Tonic: ​ 

    Apologies for being repetitive, then

    .
    By no means. Some of us missed the earlier reference or, in my case, almost certainly read it–sounds familiar–but I have been distracted by other things and wouldn’t have passed a quiz on Ukrainian meat products or convenience stores. The background is helpful; thank you for providing it.​

  67. 67.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Torrey: upon reflection, I’m sure that gin & tonic is where I learned about okko dogs.   Learning is good, and repetition is good for learning.

  68. 68.

    dirt_first

    But what if its all bullshit?  All the drama – catered to our soap opera-minded news [sic] folks.  Could it be that after his work in Donbas [the plan] was for Prigozhin to go and rebuild the Wagner force in Belarus?  Perhaps with some not-small portion of Belarusian troops or inmates?  And then, **suprise muthafahkah** his group advances toward Lviv and other points west, then south?

    I wonder what effect this new cycle was meant to have on “the west” right now, or in the near term…

    /relurking

    +2

  69. 69.

    Torrey

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
      You speak the truth, from start to finish. I don’t have another source for information about OKKO, so clearly I too learned about them here. (I doubt I’ll forget about it again. But don’t take any bets.)

  70. 70.

    bjacques

    I can’t see how Pringles would be especially welcome in Belarus, as a mad dog with poor impulse control. If he rants at Pooty Poot he’ll have a go at Dictator Combover as well. And the lieutenants he led on his putsch* have to look after themselves now. If Putin controls the flow of arms to Africa etc., the henchmen may leap at the chance to take over operations instead of getting it in the neck in the basement of the Lubyanka.

     

    *It’s only a putsch if it’s brewed in Bavaria according strictly to the Reinheitsgebot. Otherwise it’s just a mutiny with too much head.

  71. 71.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid: ​
     

    But I am assuming that Prigozhin wants to survive, and I don’t see how he can hope to unless he remains with a substantial force of Wagner’s professional soldiers. I don’t see one besides the one in the Rostov area, and that’s why I’m saying the safer play for him may be to hole up there.

    I never understood why Prigozhin didn’t just retreat to Rostov when he abandoned his march on Moscow.

    My take is that his life expectancy isn’t all that short: his Wagner outfit is engaging in assorted operations in Africa and Syria, and replacing him isn’t likely to be as simple as offing him and telling his mercs that they’ve got a new boss now. The African mercs would likely just go into business for themselves if they don’t trust the new guy. So it’s a situation that needs time and careful handling if Putin wants to keep it all going, but ultimately without Prigozhin.

  72. 72.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: Do we know that Prigozhin did not retreat to Rostov? He was there Saturday night, and the friendly crowds made news.

    Evidently his deputy/co-leader Utkin(sp?) was with the column and presumably returned to Rostov with it. So far as I know, they are still there. It sounds like Putin and the MoD want them dissolved and dispersed but that may not have happened yet.

  73. 73.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: The picture you paint of Prigozhin’s thought processes does not ring true to me. I think that Prigozhin hoped to get active support from Army and security elements, and backed off because he did not.

    But do you know the size and capability of the Wagner forces in Rostov Oblast? It seems like that is a factor that should be considered before dismissing the possibility of Prigozhin staying there and maintaining some autonomy. You are certain that he can’t; I’m keeping an open mind about a dynamic situation with a lot of unknowns.

    I’m not predicting Prigozhin will stay alive, just saying his chances in Rostov could be better than in Belarus. And an attempt to reach Africa is obviously problematic.

  75. 75.

    tokyokie

    Thank you Adam for the daily updates. I’ve been following the NYT and WaPo coverage, and figured out they, like most, don’t have a clue as to what’s going on. You put things together in a way that makes matters as comprehensible as is possible, given the situation.

    However, there’s one possibility to which no one seems to have given much consideration, namely, what does Lukashenko plan to do? I recall several years ago that Lukashenko fancied himself as the leader of a newly consolidated Soviet empire. What if he saw Putin’s vulnerability and inserted himself into the situation as a way of taking advantage of it? I’m aware that his military is even worse at fighting armed opponents than Russia’s is, but would his armed forces combined with Wagner offer a credible threat to Putin?

  76. 76.

    Tim Ellis

    Thanks for this Adam and for all these updates – enormously helpful in clarifying what was going on.

    I have a question for you if you find the time (no pressure, I know you’ve got a lot on the go). I’m keenly interested in the informational war and working on defensive measures here in North America, but I’m curious about the possibility of reciprocal measures on Russian platforms as well. Are you aware of any efforts by either state actors or grassroots organizations to run active informational measures in Russian informational spaces (e.g. on VKontakte)? Whether such currently exist or not, do you think it’s feasible for such efforts to achieve some impact in altering the Russian domestic political situation?

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