Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We still have time to mess this up!

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Celebrate the fucking wins.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Bark louder, little dog.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 519: Son of (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 519: Son of (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: I’m fried, so just a brief update tonight.

The Russians opened up on Ukraine again last night. The Ukrainian Air Force has the details on their Telegram channel:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Today, I had the honor to congratulate doctors and nurses, frontline medics on their professional holiday; I am grateful to everyone on whom the life of Ukraine depends – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

27 July 2023 – 22:54

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

We are finishing this day working in Odesa.

Dnipro region, Mykolaiv and Ochakiv… Now it’s our Odesa region. Our combat medics, all our medical workers who save the lives of our soldiers and civilians, our adults and our children.

Today I had the honor to congratulate Ukrainian doctors and nurses, frontline medics on their professional holiday. I awarded the best ones. But I am grateful to everyone who stays in our cities and villages, in the frontline areas, who work on the frontline, on whom the life of Ukraine really depends. I am grateful to you!

In the morning, I held a meeting of the Staff. As always, we discussed key issues of our defense, protection of our skies and our cities. There were reports on the situation at the front and we are checking the “military commissars”. I think you can see the state’s reaction to the abuses of the “military commissars”.

Mykolaiv has a lot of issues that need to be resolved for people, including in the regional hospital. The Minister of Health and the head of the regional administration heard everything.

Ochakiv – I thank our doctors working there. They are real heroes!

In Odesa, I also had the honor to award medical workers and thanked them for their work.

An important conversation also took place in the presence of the Minister of Health with Commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Tetiana Ostashchenko. We talked about issues that are of great concern to our combat medics, our warriors. Issues on which lives depend. I expect the commander to work together with the community of combat medics, with volunteers and, on the other hand, with government officials to find the necessary solutions.

I listened to the report on the liquidation of the consequences of Russian strikes on Odesa and the region. Here, in Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral, which Russia tried to destroy, I feel that our people, our morale are still stronger. Stronger than the Russian terror.

We are looking for air defense systems to protect Odesa and our entire south. And I am grateful to everyone in the world who has already joined us in this endeavor!

One more thing.

Kyiv. Today there is minus one deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. That’s fair.

I think it’s also fair to say now: every intention of any official to go abroad, of any deputy, should be checked to the second. If someone really wants to take a break from working for the state, the state will also take a break from such people.

I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! Thank you for the liberation of Staromaiorske. Congratulations again, guys!

Once again, I would like to congratulate our esteemed medical workers on their holiday. We are very proud of you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Kivsharivka Village, Kharkiv Oblast:

Staomayorske, Donetsk Oblast:

A short movie about the liberation of Staromaiorske:

“On July 27, 2023, the personnel of the 35th separate marines brigade named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Ostrogradsky, together with their comrades from the 7th separate battalion of AREY UDA, liberated the settlement of Staromayorske, located in Donetsk region.”

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/107489

The International Fencing Federation has not made the point it thinks it has:

Yep, they disqualified her.

Last night I answered a question for Urza, which led to this comment:

Wooh, mentioned on the front page for the first time ever, reading since Terry Schiavo but mostly just lurking.
Thanks for answering that Adam.

You’re most welcome. And now you’ve been on the front page twice. In two days!

In the next comment Nukular Biskits asked:

Adam, I appreciate your response to my last night’s question about your thoughts w/ reference to the probability of Russia attacking merchant/civilian shipping in the Black Sea.

Unfortunately, I didn’t see it until this morning around 0400 local (I usually hit the sack about now and arise for my morning pre-work coffee & constitutional around then).

Not to belabor the point, but given Russia’s complete lack of concern for civilian casualties, why would you think they wouldn’t escalate hostilities to the point of attacking commercial vessels going to/from Ukrainian ports?

I’ll try to stay awake longer tonight … LOL

I’d already gone to sleep when you asked that, so here’s the answer. I don’t think this is about Russia’s concern for civilian casualties. Rather, I think there are a couple of things at play here. The first is that Russia really cannot afford to alienate anyone else. A lot of these commercial vessels, regardless of who owns them, are flagged in states in the global periphery or south. These are places that Russia is working its elements of national power other than military power hard. And it is doing so in order to establish influence. If the owners of the commercial shipping vessels suddenly feel the need to reflag their ships within their own states or states that are members of NATO in order to increase the likelihood of protection, that is going to hurt business for the states in the global periphery and south. The other dynamic that is in play here is that Putin really can’t afford to piss off Erdogan. As Russia’s power wanes, the Black Sea becomes more and more Turkiye’s body of water. That’s what I think is going on here.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are two new Patron slide shows at his official TikTok. The first one is here and the second one is here. These don’t embed for some reason.

Reader Interactions

73Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    Posted about this downstairs, but I’m sure it’s just one of those weird coincidences that the President of the FIE (International Fencing Federation) up until last year was the russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov.

    And here is the “neutral” Smirnova:

    The photo features Anna Smirnova, the Russian fencer who Ukrainian Olha #Kharlan refused to shake hands with at the World Championships after winning a fair bout. As you can see, she openly admires the Russian army, which is killing Ukrainians and destroying our cities. The… pic.twitter.com/je1o94n3OX
    — Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) July 27, 2023

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Also posted on this earlier, but the has-been Sy Hersh posted an article today (no linkies) in which he has an anonymous “US official” referring to Zelensky as a “poor waif in his underwear.” Please raise your hand if you’ve ever heard an American use that turn of phrase. Again, I’m sure it’s just one of those weird coincidences that that phrase is a literal translation of the fairly common russian idiomatic expression “мальчик в трусиках.”

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    Yeah, one more and it’s dinnertime. Here’s a UA drone taking out a russian thermobaric missile launcher:

    #Ukraine: The spectacular destruction of a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher by an FPV loitering munition of the Ukrainian SBU “Alpha”. pic.twitter.com/BCGYMAfc5s
    — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) July 27, 2023

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    If someone really wants to take a break from working for the state, the state will also take a break from such people.

    Snap.

    I love that photo of Zelenskyy with Zaluzhnyi. Two men not to be fucked with!

    Three videos of Zelenskyy visiting medical facilities: one in Ochakiv, one in Odesa and one in Mykolaiv. These videos don’t get subtitled and I can only pick out a few words here and there, but I always love seeing him on these visits and the interactions with staff and patients. Leadership in action, mutual respect, honor on all sides.

    Thank you as always, Adam. Go get some rest!

  8. 8.

    Steppanhammer

    Blade taps, elbow bumps, and fist bumps are all still considered acceptable replacements for the end-of-bout handshake. There’s even video of a pouty Italian male foilist giving a begrudging fist bump from the other day. Smirnova wanted to make a scene.

    I’m also seeing that Smirnova’s social media posts violate the neutrality agreement she’s supposed to be under to even be competing, and that’s also resulted in her being black carded (DQed), but the FIE (the acronym everyone uses for the French name for “International Fencing Federation”) site still lists her finishing place, so I’m looking for confirmation.

    I don’t know if the FIE is as bad as FIFA or the IOC but it’s, uh, not good.

  9. 9.

    zhena gogolia

    I looked up “learning Ukrainian for Russian speakers” even though I have no time to learn anything. I didn’t see any good options. Maybe I’ll teach myself. I can read it with a dictionary.

  13. 13.

    Steppanhammer

    @zhena gogolia: Oh, absolutely. I just mean to say that the FIE laid out some actual conditions for Russian athletes to meet to be allowed to compete under a ‘neutral’ flag, which include things like social media distancing/lack of media support for the war, etc. This (assuming there’s no weird timeframe-of-post restriction) would obviously be flaunting that, so somebody didn’t do their due diligence and/or she just lied about it.

    There’s a very high level former-Russian Olympic men’s fencer who very recently moved to the US to coach and compete and there was a whole public statement from him about it and everything as per US Fencing terms.

    ed: a little extra context: the FIE allowing a neutrality path for Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete again has largely been very unpopular, and a significant number of European-hosted World Cups this season were straight-up canceled by their host federations over it (some ‘ostensibly’ about visa issues).

  15. 15.

    Steppanhammer

    @Gin & Tonic: No problem! I lurk on and off and have for some time, just usually have nothing to add. :)

    And a big thanks to Adam for putting these together, since I’ve never expressed it before.

  16. 16.

    oldster

    @Gin & Tonic:

    That was a particularly satisfying kaboom, wasn’t it? All 24 thermobaric rockets skedaddled from that launcher, and to all appearances none of them harmed a single Ukrainian.

    Amazing what these drone pilots can do.

  18. 18.

    oldster

    @Alison Rose:

    “I love that photo of Zelenskyy with Zaluzhnyi.”  Me too!

    You know what else I see? An expression of complete trust from Zelenskyi to Zaluzhny. Here is a pistol. Here are the bullets. My life is in your hands, right now, and 24 hours of the day. I trust you to keep me safe. (Okay, you and Budanov).

    I hope that they will both stay safe for many years to come.

  21. 21.

    Captain C

    I would be fine with FIE’s actions in, and only if, all opponents of Russian and Belarusians are allowed to use real swords against their “neutral” competition.  It doesn’t have to be the kind of sword that is technically used in the competition.  If, say, a Ukrainian fencer wanted to use a full-on two-handed Conan-style longsword against a Russian or Belarusian foil opponent, that would be fine.  Needless to say, Russian and Belarusian competitors must use the standard equipment in such a scenario.

  23. 23.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Can Russians under a neutral flag be neutral?  It’s a big deal in chess since more than a few top players immediately opted out of Russian Federation, except one who will not be named and was immediately banned from international competition.  And, if they can be really “neutral”, how does one tell?

    Was taking a break from peppering the questions; this stuff gets depressing to read from sidelines.

  24. 24.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Question about the Chinese (et alia) exporting US electronics to Russia for military use.  What can consumers do?

    Hard to refuse business with electronic components suppliers when you are buying far downstream and, to me, it’s not clear what control companies have over resales.

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anonymous At Work: one presumes that for high ranking players, they can simply apply to another country and join their national federation.  For instance recently the Iranian woman who had to flee Iran because she did not wish to play chess wearing hijab was given Spanish citizenship.  My guess is that there will be many countries that will be willing to take high ranking players in many sports from Russia who did not wish to associate themselves with that piece of shit country.

    Even leaving the country and publicly saying you’ve done so and disavowing yourself from anything the damn place does is a good start.

  26. 26.

    Geminid

    I’ve read that the West’s tepid response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea was very influential on Turkish President Erdogan’s thinking. Sevastopol is a long way from Berlin, Paris and London, but it’s only 339 miles from Istanbul.

    One response by Turkiye was to intensify a strategic partnership with Ukraine. The economic relationship also progressed, and by 2021 Turkiish companies were Ukraine’s largest foreign investors.

    Erogan also began a more assertive foreign policy. In the process he managed to piss off just about every country in the region besides Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaijan. In the last 3 years though, Erdogan has patched up relations with most of them including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and most recently, Egypt.

    Erdogan’s foreign ventures have not been well received in Europe. His 2021 intervention in Libya spurred cries that he’d gone rogue. After Erdogan sent drones, and soldiers to Libya and defended Tripoli’s airspace with Turkish frigates,

    France complained that Erdogan was in it for himself- as if Emanual Macron was some sort of altruistic Boy Scout. But all Erdagan did was assist the UN-recognized government keep the Wagner Group and Benghazi-based General Haftar from taking control of Libya. He denied Wagner and Russia a share of 1.5 million+ barrels of oil a day. France had backed Haftar.

    Turkiye’s policy towards the current war has frustrated many. Its arms supplies to Ukraine are kept on the down-low, while it’s trade relations with Russia and hospitality to Russian tourists scandalizes Ukraine’s new friends. They call for Turkiye to be thrown out of NATO, and for 85 million Turks to be for 11 million Swedes.

    I don’t think you’ll see Ukrainians advocating this. They know that Turkiye “is dancing at both weddings,” as one official put it, but Presidents Zelenskyy and Erdogan seem to have an understanding. And in the long run, Ukraine and Turkiye are natural trading partners and strategic allies.

    I would like nothing more than for Turkiye to enter this war, and back Ukraine with NATO’s 2nd largest Army, 3rd largest Air Force, and a strong Navy trained and equipped to NATO standards. But it’s easy to want other people to go to war.

    And I am sitting in Virginia, inside a vast country bounded by Canada, Mexico and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. But looking clockwise from the North, Turkiye’s neighbors are Russia across the Black Sea, Georgia, Iran, Iraq,  Syria, Greece across the Augean Sea , Bulgaria, and Ukraine. This whole region has been in turmoil since at least 2003, when the US invaded Iraq.

    All those countries will still exist (and most of those problems will persist) after this war is over. And while many hope that Russian power will be broken when this war ends, Erdogan has good reason to believe that his country’s greatest threat since the 18th century will remain a threat for the rest of this one.

  27. 27.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: As far as I know all Russian olympic/amateur athletes are still in the Russian military or some other form of Russian governmental sponsorship.

  30. 30.

    Steppanhammer

    @Anonymous At Work: I believe rules about “neutrality” and what that standard entails are going to vary per sport federation. The FIE put one in place for Russian and Belarusian fencers this year, but I don’t know what its standards are, so I don’t know if it’s (likely intentionally) too lax, or she lied and nobody bothered to check. US Fencing now has its own set of standards for Russian athletes to compete/’defect’ here as well, which include stuff like public statements denouncing the war – we’ve gained one very high profile fencer, and there’s another high level Russian men’s fencer who has defected recently I think here also. (The war may have broken his marriage too, as he was married to a Russian Olympic sabre fencer, who’s the daughter of the Russian Olympic Committee president…

    But if you’re asking it as a moral question, well, no. And I thought it was a farce when it was about the Russian doping programs.

  31. 31.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: Obviously I trust you more than a machine, but Google seems to think the second word means “hymn” or “anthem” and also that it’s Belarusian. I’m guessing it is wrong on multiple levels, LOL.

  33. 33.

    zhena gogolia

    @Alison Rose: You have to put an -O- on the end, then it’s the right word. гїмно

    But I can’t find the right “i” letter.

    ETA: гімно

  34. 34.

    zhena gogolia

    @Alison Rose:
    Noun
    гімно́ • (himnó) n inan (genitive гімна́, uncountable)

    (vulgar) excrement, shit
    (vulgar) shit, shitass, turd (worthless person)

  36. 36.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: The word “гімн” is hymn or anthem. The word “гімно” is a common word for manure or excrement, but “гівно” I think is an equivalent – although there are regional variations. “Гній” is another word, more commonly used for farm-type manure.

  39. 39.

    Alison Rose

    @zhena gogolia: @Gin & Tonic: Дякую тобі! Cursing is serious bizniz for me :

    ETA: LOL yeah, when I put in гімно, it gives me anthem. If I leave off the last letter, it gives me hymn. But гівно comes back as shit. And now I’m sure the little bots living in the translating machine are very confused by me.

  40. 40.

    oldster

    @Geminid:

    Thanks for this overview. Seeing Turkiye’s foreign policy from its own perspective is important for Americans in particular, who tend to slot it into one or two frames and ask one or two questions (e.g. how Islamic is it? How is it treating the Kurds? How is it getting along with Greece? etc.)

    It sounds like these are not the pressing concerns from inside Turkiye’s own foreign policy vision. Staying alive in a rough neighborhood is task number one.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    Sergej Sumlenny
    @sumlenny
    10h
    Here is how “neutral” is instagram account of the Russian athlete Smirnova. Shame! If you are as angry as me, donate for Drones for Ukraine using this link. It will help Ukrainians who are liberating their land from other “neutral” Russian soldiers:

    https://nitter.net/i/status/1684538644583923715

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Geminid: I would wish that Turkey were a better ally.  But they’re sending Ukraine arms, and heh, they don’t require Ukraine to stay within its border with ’em.  Gotta respect that.  I’m much angrier with Germany, France, and some other countries that don’t seem to understand who’s dying for their caffe lattes and eau de vie (lookin’ at you, Austria and Switzerland).

    ETA: and of course, those traitorous bastards in Hungary.

  46. 46.

    Lyrebird

    @zhena gogolia: ​
     

    Well on the one hand, it might be too easy, but here’s a good thing about the Duolingo Ukrainian lessons:

    “Since the invasion of Ukraine began, we’ve experienced a large spike in people learning Ukrainian on Duolingo. While it’s wonderful to see that show of support and appreciation for Ukraine’s culture, it would not be right for us to profit from it. We will be donating all of the ad revenue from people studying Ukrainian on Duolingo to Ukraine relief.”

    The donations might be to UNHCR, unf….

  47. 47.

    Kelly

    @Geminid: But looking clockwise from the North, Turkiye’s neighbors are Russia across the Black Sea, Georgia, Iran, Iraq,  Syria, Greece across the Augean Sea , Bulgaria, and Ukraine. This whole region has been in turmoil since at least 2003, when the US invaded Iraq.

    As well as the local turmoil I wonder if GWB’s amazing Iraq adventure prevented the West from a better defense of Ukraine in 2014. Bush the Elder put together a coalition to liberate Kuwait. Ukraine isn’t a wealthy oil country but it is in Europe. I wonder often if without the Vietnam war and Iraq 2 would people be more supportive of interventions. Do evil wars protect evil people from just war?

  50. 50.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: So these NAFO memes about the Hero of Ukraine Egyptian shark that ate that Russian swimmmer, those are called “Sharkasm”, so I understand.  What are the memes about cats pissing in RU soldiers’ mouths and drowning them called?  “Catacasm”?

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    @Kelly: I think that Putin could see that after the war in Iraq, Americans had little appetite for foreign interventions. So as you say, in addition to the actual costs of the war, there were opportunity costs as well.

    That war seems to have spooked the Europeans as well. This may have accounted for their passive attitude towards the power vacuum left in Libya after they helped us topple Qaddafi.

  54. 54.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kelly:

    prevented the West from a better defense of Ukraine in 2014.

    Obama was busy with his “pivot to China”.  And Western Europe?  They were busy lapping up Russian oil and gas, gorging on fees fromm Russian investments (Londongrad), and in general getting bribed into complacency by Russia.  Nobody wanted to upset the applecart, when there were so many golden apples on it yet to be feasted-upon.

  56. 56.

    Lyrebird

    @zhena gogolia: Understood.  I can imagine many reasons to find Duolingo irritating, between the cutesy graphics and the  fact that you’re an experienced educator who would probabbly like to have your hand on the controls not just go along with their program.

    If  you do find a Ukrainian learning app you like, please post about it!  I know more BJ peeps are studying Spanish, but it seems that several people are interested in learning Ukrainian.

  59. 59.

    Alison Rose

    @zhena gogolia: I tried it for months, but the thing with Duolingo is that it is NOT a language-learning app. It’s a phrase-learning app. You might learn some words and phrases, but it will not make you fluent or even close to fluent. It doesn’t explain anything, doesn’t teach grammar or rules or conjugation. It basically just spews words and phrases at you and expects you to memorize them.

  61. 61.

    Lyrebird

    @Alison Rose: Thanks for the review!  I’ve only used Duolingo for a different language.  There were grammar lessons in the “tips”, but the language I was working on has no conjugations.

    @Manyakitty:

    @zhena gogolia:

    I see that HelloTalk has Ukrainian listed as one of its languages.  I haven’t figured out how their pricing works, or Tandem either.  Both of those have you chat via text with a native speaker.  Might be better for some one like Z_G than for a total beginner.  Here are some other app reviews.

  62. 62.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Alison Rose: Someday, we may have occasion to go into the Italian genius for blasphemous cursing. Although a full-up review might trigger a lightning strike on the BJ hosting datacenter…

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: The chief irritant between Turkiye and the rest of NATO was undoubtedly the delay of Sweden’s accession. Which was infuriating, but which also was a situation that clearly had a limited shelf-life from the beginning. Now that that is resolved, Turkiye’s natural strategic rivalry with Russia over the Black Sea can hopefully be relied upon to keep Erdogan on the reservation.

    I worry about a blow-up between Turkiye and Greece, though. Hopefully less likely now that Erdogan won the election, and has less need for that kind of posturing, but one never knows.

  65. 65.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: Reminds me of “An Englishman’s humor is in the drawing room, a Frenchman’s humor is in the bedroom, and a German’s humor is in the bathroom.”

  67. 67.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Alison Rose: Yeah, but it’s in the category of telling God to fuck off that the Italian language draws special distinction. The Hasa Diga Ibouwai song from the Book of Mormon would really only register as normal street dialogue in translation.

  68. 68.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: Erdogan and Greeces Prime Minister had a good meeting on the Vilnius sidelines and cheerfully talked up their new consultative mechanism .

    One Turkish analyst described Turkiye’s repeated overflights of Greece’s Dodecanese Islands as a shrewd campaign to create a diplomatic “coin”with exchange value. Turkeye’s not going to take thise islands even though they could easily do so.

    And while Greek Cypriots complain mightily about Turkiye’s occupation of Northern Cuprus, that has been a stable and peaceful situation for decades. Anyway, the Greek Cypriots brought it upon themselves in 1974, with the help of Greece’s military junta.

    As for Sweden, other NATO countries, Secretary General Stoltenberg, and Swedish officials themselves admit that Turkiye had legitimate security concerns here. Sweden and other western European countries turned a blind eye to the PKK’s use of their countries as protected rear bases beginning on the 1980s. Now Sweden is only doing what France and Germany have already done.

  70. 70.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Not quite resolved. When Biden Administration officials claimed in the press that F-16Vs to Türkiye is not a sure thing due to Congressional opposition, Erdogan riposted that Sweden’s accession into NATO is not a sure thing in the Turkish parliament, either. There could be a bit more drama to come.

  71. 71.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: The Turkish Grand Bational Assembly will approve Sweden’s accession when Erdogan wants it to. The NA is not scheduled to meet until October, but Erdogan says the relevant committee is meeting this summer. He can call the Assembly into session earlier than October.

    (More to come; I just fatfingered a long comment into oblivion!)

  72. 72.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: That would Turkiye’s National, not Bational Assembly. That can be an argumentative place, but I think physical bashing is rare.

  73. 73.

    Geminid

    @Geminid:

     

    @YY_Sima Qian: I think the National Assembly will vote to approve Swedish accession. Erdogan’s been on a roll lately in foreign affairs, and they will endorse his preference which I believe is accession.

    Sweden met Erdogan halfway regarding curbing PKK sponsorship. Erdogan knows the limitations Sweden places on government interference with free speech, which are nothing like the ones Turkiye had for years before Erdogan became Prime Minister. Erdogan himself received a 2 year sentence and a ban from politics in the late 1990s for reading a poem. He served only a few months and the ban was rescinded, but Turkey has never been like the US or even Western Europe in this respect.

    There was an importatant meeting in Brussels July 11, with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg presiding. Not only did the Foreign Ministers of Turkiye, Sweden and Finland attend, but the intelligence and national security chiefs of the three natuons also participated. I figured that those high-powered officials were agreeing on the way forward once the principle of Swedish accession was agreed to by Erdogan. Stoltenberg has created an office for anti-terrorism that will be coordinating the efforts of various security services to combat terrorism, and in particular see that the undertakings made a year ago by Sweden and Finland are carried out.

    The F-16 issue is problematic, but I do not think it will derail Swedish NATO accession. Turkiye has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 modernization packages, and Senate Foreign Relations Chair Robert Menendez is blocking the deal.

    Now Turkiye has announced a contract with a domestic firm that will modernize their entire F-16 fleet with advanced avionics packages. Lockheed is backlogged with F-16 orders and if Menendez relented tomorrow Turkiye might not get the 40 new F-16s until the end of next year.

    Meanwhile, Turkiye is planning to roll out their new 6th generation (they claim) fighter in 2025. They are committed as much possible to indigenous production of their weapon systems, so acquisition of the F-16s might seem a side track now. Their new fighters are to be powered by Ukrainian engines, and that may be a variable.

    At least, President Biden has endorsed the F-16 sales, and given Erdogan one of the things he has fought for the hardest: respect for himself and his nation.

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