(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Russians opened up on Ukrainian civilian targets again overnight:
Another massive missile attack by russian terrorists was repelled.
Air defense of Ukraine destroyed 36 air targets:
3 Kalibr cruise missiles;
33 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles.
The sky will be peaceful! @KpsZSU— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 26, 2023
Last night in comments, Urza asked:
I may have missed it already, whats your thoughts on the talk of the Wagner group making a strike through Poland to unite the outlying Russian territory to Belarus? That seems like a terrible idea as it would guarantee NATO involvement. On the other hand it could be a feint to get troops ready to reinvade northern Ukraine.
You hadn’t missed it as I hadn’t written anything about it. Every single story on this – including from the legit outfits like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – all lead back to something Lukashenko allegedly said. Given Prigozhin’s statements about refocusing on Africa and other places he’s been operation, I would treat this as agitprop and misinformation until we have something more than Lukashenko’s utterances.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
It is very important that the audacity of this attack by Russian terrorists was destroyed – address by the President of Ukraine
26 July 2023 – 22:09
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is a day that should end with a special gratitude to all our air defense warriors for every Russian missile shot down.
The data is still being clarified, but according to preliminary reports, more than 30 missiles were shot down during today’s missile attack alone – the vast majority of those used against us.
There were a few hits, and some missile fragments fell. But it is very important that the audacity of this attack was destroyed. The air defense units did a great job!
I am grateful to everyone who protects the Ukrainian sky. And we work every day to ensure that our warriors have more and more opportunities to defend Ukraine, our cities and people. Today is no exception.
Today, the first emergency meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council took place. We agreed on this meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and we convened the Council in just a few days. Both Jens and all Allies responded promptly and in solidarity.
At the level of the Alliance, the Russian attacks against our country and our ports have been clearly condemned. We discussed what specific actions can bring calm and predictability to the Black Sea region. Thank you all for the substantive work of today’s NATO-Ukraine Council!
Today, the Italian Senate adopted a decision to recognize the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. And this is very important. It is important that the world’s recognition of the historical truth about the Holodomor is becoming more and more confident – step by step, we will ensure full recognition of this truth.
I held several important meetings on preparing international events in August, including the Crimea Platform.
We are also preparing a list of de-occupation steps for Crimea. Comprehensive steps: security, economic, and social. We can quickly reintegrate Crimea into the state fabric of Ukraine. In fact, the occupiers should already consider that while the Crimean bridge is still somewhat operational, they should return home to Russia.
Crimea, like the rest of Ukraine, will be free – free from all Russian evil, starting with Russian missiles and ending with every Russian occupier. Russia will lose this war, and no missile will save it.
Glory to all those who defend Ukraine! By the way, today our guys at the front had very good results. Well done. More details later.
Glory to Ukraine!
The #UAarmy’s summer campaign is in full swing, and we are doing all we can to achieve success. Our partners stand with us and believe in Ukraine’s victory and just peace.
Thank you to @SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III and all Americans for another package of security assistance! pic.twitter.com/qFbQM6xP7u— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 25, 2023
15 days since the last exploding general pic.twitter.com/2a3are9yMO
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 26, 2023
Talk about adding insult to injury!
Avidiivka:
WARNING!! GRAPHIC & DISTURBING CONTENT IN THE VIDEO!! WARNING!!
I’m posting this not so you’ll watch the video – I’ve watched it, but because I want to call attention to the reality that is shown here by providing the machine translation for the two tweets in the thread (even though only the second one is showing).
The first tweet machine translates as:
And help did not arrive in time for this Ukrainian hero. The horrific footage was captured on the GoPro camera of an Armed Forces soldier. Near Avdiivka, the Russians captured our stronghold and fatally wounded him.
And the second as:
No one came to help him and he died 30 seconds later. A video for those who have forgotten that every day now our boys are holding the front at the cost of their own lives.
The awful truth of war https://t.co/tGcaIeLVnh
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 26, 2023
На допомогу йому ніхто не встиг прийти і через 30 секунд він помер. Відео для тих, хто забув, що кожного дня зараз наші хлопці тримають фронт ціною власних життів.
Джерело:https://t.co/tF0wdDTdgx
— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) July 26, 2023
ALL CLEAR!!!
I want to clarify that it is not that no one came to his aid, rather no one who could render aid was able to get to him in time given he and his fellow Soldiers were in contact with the enemy and taking fire. For all the fun videos that the Ukrainian MOD or NAFO put out or the daily Patron material, the Ukrainians are not just in a war, they are literally in the fight of their lives. And not every Ukrainian is, at the personal level, going to win that fight even though their personal sacrifice is contributing to Ukraine eventually winning it overall.
Klishiivka:
Ukrainian troops are pretty close to taking over the whole of Klischiivka (south of Bakhmut).
The southern flank has considerable progress.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 25, 2023
There's another interesting account from a Russian officer, sorry long post again, but he tells what led to Ukrainian success in Klischiivka, including Russia bringing up unprepared troops from various units into an area, describing them as disorganised. He also mentions… pic.twitter.com/tg6W68ZvPw
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 26, 2023
Here’s the three screen grabs of the translation:
Karkiv:
Kharkiv athlete @sadurskaterina set new women's world record in Constant Weight No Fins with dive of 76 meters today! Kateryna just told me how important it was for her to see 🇺🇦 flag rise after everything she witnessed in Kharkiv. Go, girl! We are proud of you@KharkivMediaHub pic.twitter.com/oIyvnguiL3
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 26, 2023
The Orkhiv Axis:
Confirmation that the main thrust is the Orikhiv axis, which was clear from the 47th Mechanized Brigade's presence.https://t.co/HXqvxZrVgT pic.twitter.com/xYThdpECUM
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 26, 2023
"Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast." https://t.co/EYWxgkg0W5
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 26, 2023
When we saw the location of the Bradleys, Leopard 2R, and other key equipment from the 47th Mechanized Brigade last month, it was clear that was the main effort. If Ukraine continues to commit its forces in this direction, it indicates they have not changed the priority axis. https://t.co/au4XOUpeRM
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 26, 2023
From The New York Times:
The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the campaign. Their comments dovetailed with reports from the battlefield on Wednesday, where artillery battles flared along the southern front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.
And Igor Konashenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry’s chief spokesman, reported a “massive” assault and fierce battles south of Orikhiv, a town that Ukraine holds about 60 miles north of the Sea of Azov. Vladimir Rogov, an official appointed by Moscow in southern Ukraine, said the assault involved Ukrainian troops who had been trained abroad and were equipped with about 100 armored vehicles, including German-made Leopards and American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
Another Russian occupation official in Zaporizhzhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that Ukraine had made 36 attempts to shell settlements in the region since Tuesday. Russian assertions that the Ukrainian attacks had been repelled could not be immediately verified.
Ukrainian troops along the southern front said in interviews on Wednesday that they were steadily pushing Russian troops back, but their progress had been incremental with no major breakthroughs. They have been slowed by minefields, and some said the biggest obstacles were Russia’s withering artillery fire and airstrikes.
Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.
Their goal is to sever the so-called land bridge between Russian-occupied Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, or at least advance far enough to put the strategically important peninsula within range of Ukrainian artillery. Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and uses it as the base for its Black Sea fleet as well as to supply its forces in the south.
The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington.
However, little has gone according to plan since the counteroffensive started early in June, and officials at the White House and Pentagon said on Wednesday they were watching the increased activity with keen interest.
“This is the big test,” said one senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Fog and friction, fog and friction. While the character and characteristics of war changes over time, its nature doesn’t.
The Kerch Bridge in Russian Occupied Crimea:
"The destruction of the Crimean bridge is one of our achievements," Vasyl Malyuk, chief of the Security Service of Ukraine, admitted during a ceremony marking the release of a new stamp that honors the work of the domestic intelligence agency. https://t.co/BGuEDxBQ0M
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 26, 2023
Here’s a machine translation of the Security Service of Ukraine’s tweet:
The SBU and Ukrposhta put into circulation a stamp dedicated to the work of the special service The Security Service of Ukraine and Ukrposhta presented a stamp dedicated to the activities of the special service and its contribution to the defense of the country.
Vesele, Russian Occupied Crimea:
/2. Satellite imagery of the consequences of the strike near the settlement of Vesele in Crimea. (45.5749013, 34.2582042)https://t.co/TeWy2EaicH pic.twitter.com/f2AN5UfSFV
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 26, 2023
For you logistics, acquisitions, and drone fans. You know who you are and, thanks to your comments, so do the rest of us!
From the production of cheap battlefield drones to AI-powered missile detection, Ukrainian tech start-ups, IT workers and volunteers have been developing military tech and putting themselves on the front line of the war effort. Watch the full film here: https://t.co/CUTETUgT4l pic.twitter.com/N66EtWZjWu
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 26, 2023
Here’s the full 26 minute video:
Not going to be a negotiated settlement any time soon:
3 things Ukrainians are not ready to compromise for ending the war – territories, membership in #NATO and membership in the #EU. 71,7% are against "trading" 🇺🇦 NATO membership. No chance to sell the issue at potential talks. New @dem_initiatives @ICUVua poll @NEC_Ukraine pic.twitter.com/aQb5PFQCYf
— Alyona Getmanchuk (@getmalyona) July 26, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Погоджуєтесь чи ні? :))
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Do you agree or disagree? :))
Open thread!
Lapassionara
Thank you, Adam.
japa21
I am curious about the people at the Pentagon discussing the Ukrainian plans. The old saying, “loose lips sink ships” comes to mind. Unless, it is misdirection with hopes to have Russia send most of its forces there. Again, I am hardly anyone to speak about military strategy or tactics, but when I first read about this, I went “WTF”.
Villago Delenda Est
@japa21: Because the going is so slow, it’s obvious to anyone with working synapses that this is the “main thrust” of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Operational and tactical details are not present, but the strategy is clear to all.
Chetan Murthy
@japa21: even Zelenskiyy said things are going to get a lot faster real soon now. He said that very recently.
Alison Rose
This made my heart hurt. I know it’s true, and it’s the way of things in every war, but it is painful nonetheless. None of this should ever have had to happen.
I’m curious: As far as those with relevant knowledge can tell, would Ukraine have the capability of completely destroying the bridge? Not end to end, I mean, but a sizable chunk across all spans, such that you’d have to Evel Knievel your way over the gap? (Like what the ’89 quake did to the upper deck of the Bay Bridge, except the chunk goes into the drink.) I don’t know if they have the weapons or equipment to do more than what they’ve already done, which has been great to see the few times it’s happened, but obviously hasn’t been enough to fully disable it as a means of conveyance.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: I’d like to think that 10 Tomahawks (1 ton warhead per) would do for that bridge. 10 German Taurus missiles (1 ton again) would do. etc. etc. etc.
Carlo Graziani
@Villago Delenda Est: Actually, I don’t really agree with that. Rob Lee is a very smart guy with unparalleled expertise. But I think he’s reading too much into the presence of that mechanized brigade at Orkhiv. For one thing, the Ukrainians have other exploitation-grade reserves, not out in plain view (hmm). For another, they have demonstrated repeatedly in this war the ability to shift forces around from front to front, exploiting their excellent rail network to maximize their interior line of communication advantage.
Furthermore, there is a crazy-intense fight near Bakhmut right now where the UA is making remarkably rapid progress against disorganized and dispirited resistance. And the Russian line of fortifications across the T-0504 Southwest of Popasna has been hastily thrown up (since late June, rather than since March), and is still far weaker than the stuff in front of Orkhiv—scroll around this fortification map to see the difference.
Just sayin’: one possible reading of this is in fact a feint/diversion to draw Russian forces to the South. Because if a couple of UA armored brigades should exploit a breakthrough at Bakhmut, they could probably steamroll the fortifications at the T-0405, and then effectively invite rhe Russian forces in Luhansk province to an encounter battle. Which the Russians, having prepped for months to hold prepared lines, are not prepared for. But they would have no choice, because if they lose Luhansk, the land bridge is toast anyway.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Carlo, the latest DeepState maps show dense/multiple lines of fortifications back around Popasna, north-to-south, and they’ve been there for several months. I don’t think that if UA encircles Bakhmut, they’re going to suddenly be able to romp in RU’s backfield.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: It’s a comparison issue. Look at both Popasna and Orkhiv, and tell me what you see.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: I went to the DeepState map, clicked on “fortifications” and zoomed in on Popasna and then the area south of Orikhiv. It doesn’t look as different as one would think.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: I just did the same thing now. At Popasna, there is a single echeloned line of fortifications, about 1.5 km deep. At Orkhiv the fortifications consist of multiple lines, spanning a depth of more than 10km, with no doubt all kinds of minefields and obstacles between lines. There is simply no comparison.
ETA: Also bear in mind that the Russians cannot lay mines West of the Popasna line, because that is their own supply line to their forces in Bakhmut.
oldster
Let’s hope that they can heave the orcs out of Orkhiv!
Thanks, Adam, for the nightly wrap-up.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: and yet it sure looks like the fortifications at Papasana are several layers thicker than each of the layers south of Orikhiv. But also, from what I’ve read and heard on these various podcasts from Davydov and Reporting from Ukraine, Ukraine is not using large numbers of troops to encircle Bahamut: Just the brigades they had in place already. This is completely opportunistic is at least whatThese sources are saying. But whatever, we’ll see what happens in the end.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Chetan Murthy: That’s “only” around 20M USD for Tomahawks, which is cheap compared to the additional Ukrainian lives that will be lost. Why not fire from multiple locations for simultaneous arrival and definitively close the bridge for the foreseeable future? The US has plenty to spare, and it’s hard to believe that ground-launching is an intractable challenge. Concerns about disclosure of technology or fires into Russia proper?
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: But what I’m asking is does Ukraine currently have the ability to pull off such a thing?
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, different brands of tea make for different tea-leaf readings.
I guess I’m also attached (perhaps too attached) to this theory because if it works, it’s clever, and not obvious, and that was how the UA conducted it’s strategy last year. Powering through fortifications 5 months in preparation by brute force is not clever. It might be necessary, but.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: tomahawks used to be launched from ground-based transporter erector launchers. I don’t know if we’ve somehow forgotten how to do that, and if we have then somebody ought to have figured out how to do it again in the year and they have that this war has been going on. Alternately if storm shadows can be launched from SU 24 bombers, Then Shirley Tomahawks can since it’s NATO standard again and like storm shadow would be targeted on the ground. It seems like these are surmountable obstacles given that they did it with storm shadow already.
Chetan Murthy
@Wombat Probability Cloud: it’s hard to believe the Russians in Chinese don’t have tomahawk debris, given that we shot some into Afghanistan to try to take out Bin Laden. And for God’s sake Russia has lots and lots of high quality cruise missiles. Some of them are really goddamn fast.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: the overriding strategy necessity is to cut the kerch straits bridge and isolate Crimea.
oldster
@Carlo Graziani:
Carlo, Chetan — I have no idea which of you has the right side of this debate, but I hope that the Russian General Staff is also consumed with differences of opinion on these very questions. Let them dither over whether the Ukrainians will hit them north or hit them south.
And I hope that Zaluzhny, that old fox, is meanwhile preparing an Option #3 that *none* of you has been thinking about…..
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Chetan Murthy: Considering changing my nym to Shirley Tomahawks in the meantime…
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
There’s also very little public information about the state of Russian electronic warfare defenses and other air defenses against Western-origin high-precision missiles. Uncertainty about defenses could be a factor.
YY_Sima Qian
I certainly hope the resumed thrust toward Melitopol is a diversion to draw Russian attention away from Bakhmut. Otherwise it will be a bloody slog through multiple belts of prepared Russian defenses.
Jay
https://nitter.net/reconghostsamar/status/1683943897720934402#m
oldster
@Bill Arnold:
“…air defenses against Western-origin high-precision missiles. Uncertainty about defenses couldbe a factor.”
Fair point, but I think we are learning something through the use of the Storm Shadow, and it seems to be good news.
Gin & Tonic
My son had occasion very recently to spend time chatting with a Ukrainian Catholic priest from L’viv, in the US for the summer. He (the priest) is grateful for the respite, as his schedule this year has been a funeral a day. For context, L’viv is westernmost Ukraine, an hour’s drive from Poland, and Catholicism is a minority religion in Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
@oldster: if the Russians know how to defend against Tomahawks, it’s better to find out sooner than later. I mean, The chance thatThey teach the Chinese Is pretty much 100% And that would be bad for Taiwan.
Grumpy Old Railroader
WTF is wrong with these newspapers? Yesterday I read in the WSJ that Ukraine has stalled and a day later the FTFNYT says Ukraine is about to kick ass. Just more reasons that I have more and more ignored MSM and get my info off the innertubes
Jay
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/politics/trevor-reed-ukraine-recovery/index.html
kalakal
@Alison Rose: Ukraine has Storm Shadow missiles. Those have a half ton warhead that is specifically designed for hardened targets such as command bunkers. It’s very precise and very good at ripping up reinforced concrete structures such as command centers and bridges.
In June Ukraine used a couple to put the Chonar bridge between Crimea and Kherson out of service
Storm Shadow Chonar
No idea how many of them the UK supplied but a multiple strike could certainly destroy a span
Chetan Murthy
@kalakal: my fear is that we did not supply enough that for instance Ukraine could take out the Kirch rail bridge. It would be great to be proven wrong by Ukraine using storm shadows to do so. But given how many ammo dump targets there are in the backfield, i don’t expect it to happen.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Where my great-grandpa was from <3
Urza
Wooh, mentioned on the front page for the first time ever, reading since Terry Schiavo but mostly just lurking.
Thanks for answering that Adam.
Nukular Biskits
Adam, I appreciate your response to my last night’s question about your thoughts w/ reference to the probability of Russia attacking merchant/civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
Unfortunately, I didn’t see it until this morning around 0400 local (I usually hit the sack about now and arise for my morning pre-work coffee & constitutional around then).
Not to belabor the point, but given Russia’s complete lack of concern for civilian casualties, why would you think they wouldn’t escalate hostilities to the point of attacking commercial vessels going to/from Ukrainian ports?
I’ll try to stay awake longer tonight … LOL.
Geminid
@kalakal: Wikipedia tells me that the Storm Shadow has a range of 550 km. The distance from Kerch to Melitopol (~100 km beyond the front lines) is 185 km. It’s possible that the UK and France delivered a version modified to have a lesser range. France’s export version of its SCALP-EG has a range limitation.Or maybe the UK and France stipulated that these missiles not be used against the Kerch Bridge.
Another possibility is that Ukraine is waiting for the best time to shut the bridge down. They have been testing a tactic of sending ADM-MALD decoy missiles along with Storm Shadows.
It’s also possible that they believe that they need to fire a salvo bigger than their limited number of Su-24s can deliver right now, and need to modify other fighter jets for the task.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Tomahawks are old missiles that are non-stealthy & slow, so not difficult to intercept. Their survivability comes from low cruising altitude (30 – 50 m), but not against modern IADS (especially coming from over water, w/o terrain features to hide behind). Just look at how effective Ukrainian AD has been against Russian Khalibr cruise missiles.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Hmmmm it looks like storm shadow flies at 0.8 Mach and Tomahawk at 0.75. I’m not an expert and I don’t know whether Tomahawks are so much worse than storm shadow, But the lights are seem to be doing pretty well and also in Crimea.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, heartbreaking as that is, it’s a very plausible reason why they might not be appropriate to take out the bridge.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Storm Shadows are stealthy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Wombat Probability Cloud: One can always overwhelm a defense by throwing a lot of munitions at it.
Greg
Since the Ukrainian command has said what their axis is, I assume that they will cross the Dnipro somewhere behind the lines of defense in the next week. Get Russia to reinforce the stated axis, and hit elsewhere.
Lyrebird
Agreed.
@japa21: indeed , loose lips sink ships holds here, and I am not in the US or the UA military. I am very sure, though, that there is zero chance that the Ukrainian officials who told this stuff to US officials have suddenly lost their caution. I would also bet that those Ukr army officials remember the Teixeira leaks better than most Americans do.
Edited to fix a broken sentence.
Bill Arnold
@Lyrebird:
The Ukrainians like surprises:
The Princess Bride – The Battle of Wits (1987)
Villago Delenda Est
@Carlo Graziani: I’ll concede all that, but the ultimate goal is to make occupying Crimea totally untenable. So the details of the thrust south are veiled, but the thrust south is inevitable. How precisely it happens is operational level stuff. I don’t expect the Ukrainians are giving up operational info the Russians can use; the Russians are facing the sort of thing the Nazis were facing along the Atlantic Wall, holding back forces anticipating that Patton was going to cross the Pas De Calais.
kalakal
@Chetan Murthy: You may well be right as to their availability
@Geminid: Good point. They can carry 2 Storm Shadows so Imagine they’d need at least 10 Su24s and preferably more.
Have to say I would love to see a video of 24 Storm Shadows hitting that bridge in a coordinated strike
trollhattan
@oldster: If they can flush the orcs out of Orkhiv then maybe I can have my dream of a phalanx of Roombas getting them out of Robotyne. Seems only fair.
Thanks, Adam. Better days ahead.
Manyakitty
@trollhattan: that’s an image! Lol