Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Alternative history is always a weak argument. Always.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Let me file that under fuck it.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 522: Moscow Go Boom!

War for Ukraine Day 522: Moscow Go Boom!

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There was an UAV strike earlier today in Moscow:

The Financial Times has details:

Two skyscrapers in Moscow’s premier business district have been damaged by drone strikes that sparked a fireball and left charred holes in the side of the buildings, in the latest attack on the Russian capital.

Videos taken on Sunday by eyewitnesses showed a drone flying between the high rises of the Moscow City business area before crashing, causing an explosion at the base of one of the towers. Another video taken from inside one of the buildings showed a destroyed office space scattered with debris.

The district, which is grouped on the embankment of the Moscow river on the western edge of the city, is home to leading Russian companies, such as VTB Bank and Norilsk Nickel.

Sunday’s attack marks at least the fifth time that unmanned aerial vehicles have reached Moscow since May, when two of the aircraft were shot down over the Kremlin. Others have hit buildings in suburban areas, and six days ago drones also crashed into more centrally located buildings, including an office block.

“Tonight there was an attack by Ukrainian drones. The facades on two city office towers were slightly damaged,” Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said, adding there had been no casualties.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility from Kyiv. Ukraine, which was invaded by Russian forces last year, has tended not to take direct credit for attacks by UAVs and other strikes on Russian territory that have also targeted fuel depots and air bases.

Kyiv’s military intelligence service declined to comment on the Moscow City strikes, which bring the war closer to home for Russians and forces their army to keep some air defence resources away from the front lines in order to protect the capital and vulnerable installations.

Lieutenant-general Valeriy Kondratiuk, a former head of Ukraine’s GUR military and foreign intelligence services, claimed Sunday’s attack had been launched from within Russia by what he called “tech partisans” using “asymmetric hybrid warfare techniques”.

“These patriots are testing their drones not on military training grounds, but in real-time war scenarios on the territory of the enemy,” he said, adding that the newly developed range of drones can cost $20,000 each.He also claimed that the Moscow City buildings that were hit were “actually offices of Russia’s GRU military intelligence services”.

More at the link!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia, and this is an inevitable, natural and fair process – address by the President of Ukraine

30 July 2023 – 16:57

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we are working in Ivano-Frankivsk, in Prykarpattia. I had the honor to visit our warriors who are undergoing treatment after being wounded. I thanked them for defending the state and for their strength.

And thank you for the chevrons, guys!

I thanked our doctors and nurses – we are proud of our medics, all those who save lives.

We held a meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Ukraine in Ivano-Frankivsk. Our communities, government officials, representatives of defense and security forces. Partners of Ukraine cooperating with the Congress. We had a very informative conversation.

The first is the energy sector, preparation for the winter.

Russian aggression has gone bankrupt on the battlefield. Today is the 522nd day of the so-called “special military operation,” which the Russian leadership expected to last for a week or two. Ukraine is getting stronger. Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia – to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.

But we must be aware that, just as last year, Russian terrorists can still attack our energy sector and critical facilities this winter. Today we discussed with the communities the current state of preparation for all possible scenarios.

We also discussed the issue of urgent reconstruction, including the energy sector, and various systems of ensuring life in the communities. Odesa, our southern regions, Kharkiv, the western regions of our country, and the northern border regions. It is very important that local authorities across the country are as active as possible right now – in the summer and in September – in everything that needs to be done before the cold months of the year.

We discussed budgetary issues. Government officials will help with targeted subventions from the state budget, the amount of which is insufficient. Many other issues can be resolved by communities at their own expense and by working with extra-budgetary resources.

People see who is paving the streets instead of helping soldiers, who is spending money on bot farms instead of drones for the front, who is investing in affiliated companies instead of reconstruction of hospitals and rehabilitation of the military. The number one priority is defense, protection of the state and people. I am sure everyone on the ground has heard this. Shelters and fortifications, assistance to brigades, assistance to the families of heroes, protection of IDPs – local authorities have the resources to do all this.

By the way, the involvement of churches here in Ivano-Frankivsk region in addressing social issues is very important. Assistance to IDPs, families of soldiers, and the medical sector. This makes the Ukrainian social fabric more solid.

I am grateful to the local authorities in Prykarpattia and other regions for supporting the work of enterprises, including the relocated ones. Every job, every Ukrainian product, and especially a defense product, is a step closer to our victory.

And a few other things.

We presented to the communities our work on the Peace Formula, security guarantees for Ukraine until it joins NATO, negotiations with the Alliance and the European Union. People need to understand the details of our international policy, and there is a part of it where they can help.

In particular, so that Ukrainian MPs have a tangible incentive to work for the decisions Ukraine needs. All the laws necessary to start negotiations with the European Union must be passed. And if someone is not ready to work positively in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, he or she must understand what a negative impact this will have on them in their communities. And they should feel the appropriate attitude towards themselves: either they are for Ukraine, or they will have a hard time in Ukraine.

And, of course, the frontline. Thank you all for this day at the front – a good day, a powerful day. Bakhmut direction, other very hot and painful areas in Donbas: Avdiivka, Maryinka, and, of course, the southern directions…

The 5th assault brigade, the 80th separate airborne assault brigade, the 92nd separate and 110th separate mechanized brigades are very, very strong… The marines of the 35th and 36th brigades, the paratroopers of the famous “Seventy-ninth”, the 47th separate mechanized brigade, the artillerymen of the 55th separate brigade. Well done, warriors!

And today I would like to especially commend the Artan special unit and the 9th department of the Main Intelligence Directorate – thank you!

Glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine!

Thank you, Ivano-Frankivsk, for this day!

Glory to Ukraine!

Moscow was not the only Russian location to have a drone problem today. Daraganovka was hit and it may have been a Russian drone that malfunctioned.

Zaporizhzhia:

Bakhmut:

Velyka Novosilka:

Kyiv:

Olha Kharlan continues to make her point:

I regret nothing!

Last night in comments, YY_Sima Qian asked:

As much as I enjoyed Halevi’s essay, I am frustrated by the liberal’s tendency to correctly identify the problems but being blind to (or afraid of) taking the analysis to the logical conclusion toward underlying causes & their solutions:

How could an Israel that explicitly identifies itself as a Jewish state ever not alienate its Arab minority? A US that defines itself explicitly as a White Christian nation will disaffect every minority w/in its borders. That applies to other countries, too. Whereas countries such as Britain, France & Germany have tried to expand the notion of what makes one “British”, “French” & “German” to accommodate their minority & immigrant populations, & Halevi suggests invoking the “Isreali” identity that include its Arab population, I think the contradiction w/ Israel as a Jewish state is irreconcilable. An Arab Muslim (or Christian) cannot ever be a Jew, unless he or she converts.

This part right here:

How could an Israel that explicitly identifies itself as a Jewish state ever not alienate its Arab minority?

That is THE question!

This has always been the central tension of Israel and its reason for being. Is it a Jewish state or a state for Jews. The former means that something specific to the religion, a primary religion that has such significant ethno components that it often functions as an ethno-nationality rather than a religion, is somehow foundational to the state. That no matter how much or how well the small “l” small “d” liberal democratic elements may be functioning they are still embedded within a state that is inherently Jewish and therefore inherently theocratic. But because of the somewhat unique way that Judaism developed over the past 2,000 years where the cultural components of the religion are so strong – a development that occurred because in many if not most places it was necessary for just communal survival – that the state is also somehow ethno-nationalistic for those who adhere to the religion of Judaism. Moreover, it provided the truth to the lie of every anti-Semite that Jews were a people, a nation, an ethnos apart. For the anti-Semite, they were and are always alien from the societies they reside in and are never able to abandon their Jewishness regardless of how observant they might be, whether they have assimilated, or even if they have converted to a different religion.

If we were using the German terminology we’d be referring to the Jewish state that YY_Sima Qian is asking about as a herrenvolk state and society. In this case a Jewish herrenvolk.

Hoever, I have long argued in my professional work, including when I was assigned as the Cultural Advisor/Senior Civilian Advisor to the Commander of US Army Europe in 2014 to assist him and his staff with the DOD’s and the Army’s part of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, as well as to my co-religionists in a personal manner that there is another and better way to envision Israel. As a state for Jews. This disentangles Judaism and Jewishness from the state. It pulls that out of the foundation and flips the script back to something much closer to what Herzl envisioned: a state that was for the Jews; where they could go and be free from anti-Semitism in their daily lives; and where any disputes, even if rooted in anti-Semitism, would then simply be the normal matters of international relations and dealt with as such. Israel as a state for Jews does not mean that it cannot also have Christian, Muslim, Bahai, Druze, Hindu, Buddhist, Sikh, Jain, and/or atheist citizens (this is not meant as an exhaustive list). Moreover, a state for Jews because no one else really wanted them, which was the problem set that preoccupied Herzl, would be one that would be far better oriented to the needs of others who are unwanted. Refugees from religious or ethnic persecution, those fleeing war, those in need of aid and succor. Frankly, given the mandate for Jews to be an example to the world (light unto the world) and the imperative within Judaism of Tikkun Olam – to repair the world – Israel as a state for Jews that embraced the stranger for the Jews were themselves “strangers in Egypt” and treated as such in hundreds of other states and societies would actually be much more likely to be a real Jewish state than Israel as a Jewish state is or is likely to be.

Unfortunately, I don’t get a say. In fact because my understanding of actually observing and living Judaism as a religion is to do Tikkun Olam rather than trying to keep all of  the 110 commandments or so that can be kept in 2023, the ultra-devout in Israel don’t consider me much of anything but an apostate.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Але все-таки єєє!😂

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But still, it is! 😂

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

66Comments

  2. 2.

    Betsy

    Excellent.  There are days I wouldn’t care if central Moscow (or wherever the warmongering assholes work) were turned into dust.

    Please get any good art out first, though.

  3. 3.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Betsy: I watched a version of the Moscow drone attack video with sound, and all I could think on hearing the shrieks of the people recording it was “cry harder, katsap!”  I hope Ukraine can launch massed assaults of drones at Moscow to take out government buildings, and hey, if they blow up a few buildings in the business district, too bad.  Too.  Bad.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    Damn! I was not expecting the kaboom to be that kaboomy! Wowza. Some responses to the tweet seem to think it’s a child we hear crying, but I don’t know what they’re basing that on. Could very easily be a woman in her early to mid 20s. When you cry, your voice tends to go up in pitch. And like, yeah, now you know 1/1000000th of what Ukrainians are dealing with every day at the hands of your country.

    I think they should melt down the metal taken off the monument and then sculpt a giant middle finger with it and dumbo-drop it in front of the kremlin.

    I really value your thoughts regarding Israel, Adam. It’s such a thorny and frustrating topic to discuss. I tend to avoid it because as an American Jew who has never been there, doesn’t have family from there, and who most in the Israeli government wouldn’t even consider Jewish (Reform Jews don’t count, doncha know), I don’t have any sort of loyalty to the country and I’m embarrassed and repulsed like all get out by how it comports itself and the repugnant things it’s done and continues to do. But…there are people who will go very quickly in their criticism from saying “Israel” to “the Jews” and you remember that there is a contingent for whom the complete erasure of the country, including all of its Jewish inhabitants, is the ultimate goal. But your thoughtful words here are very wise and you’ve given me a helpful new way to think about certain aspects. See, damn it, TIFG should’ve had you on the I/P job, not Jared!

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    WaterGirl

    In Russia, apparently they thought the leopard wouldn’t eat their face.

    I guess war is hell, only for the other side.  You know, the ones you are trying to wipe off the fucking map.

  6. 6.

    The Pale Scot

    living Judaism as a religion is to do Tikkun Olam rather than trying to keep all of  the 110 commandments or so that can be kept in 2023,

    Faith over works, It’s a constitutional Chick Tract.

  7. 7.

    Spanky

    Well, don’t take it personally. In the binary thinking of the ultra devout of any religion, 99% of us are all apostates or heratics.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Thanks for your perspective Adam!

    I think Israel as a state for the Jews is promising, but I also think most(?) Jews across the political spectrum would not trust such a state to continue to be for the Jews unless Jews perpetually make up the  vast majority of the population. How to ensure the demographic distribution w/o compromising on liberal democratic ideals will be a continued source of tension.

    Israel positioning itself as the last refuge for all Jews in the world is also partly why it is in the current mess. It rapidly absorbed large numbers of Jews from Eastern Europe & fUSSR at the end of the Cold War, who were not “acculturated” to the liberal democratic political ethos.

  9. 9.

    Cacti

    The modern state of Israel is a European settler colony. That the local non-Jewish population of the Levant was made to pay for Christian Europe’s WW2 crimes against European Jews might be the whitest thing ever. (i.e. “We’re sorry. To make it up to you, you can have those brown people’s land.”)

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose: I was approached by one of the transition leads about a senior political appointment at DOD or on the National Security Staff under LTG McMaster. I’ve know the transition lead for over 20 years as a senior colleague, mentor, and friend. I politely declined.

  12. 12.

    eversor

    @Betsy:

    While I agree, for personal reasons I’m sort of upset by all it.  While I’m fine with hitting valid targets I don’t want to see “urban centers” fall down again.  I’ve been through it, from both sides.  And it leaves me feeling very uneasy about what happens next.

    (And no not a tankie, give Ukraine everything they want and fuck Russis they brought this on their own damn heads, and speed rush Ukraine, now the greatest Army in Europe into NATO they more than fucking earned it and are a great asset)

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose: It was really two other things. The first was that eventually every president, whether you like and support them or don’t, makes a decision that you can’t support as a professional. At that point the professional thing to do is to quietly resign and move on. While I know that’s professional behavior and I know the person that wanted to recommend me does as well, my impression, even at the beginning of the Trump administration is that Trump and the people around him don’t think that is professional behavior. Rather they think it is disloyal. And I made this clear to my friend and framed it I would rather be stuck as a consultant chasing projects than do the right thing and have it blow back on you as the person who recommended me for the position.

    The second reason is I was pretty sure someone was going to wind up tapping a microphone in front of one or both chambers of Congress. I did not want it to have to be me.

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    @eversor: There is an important *strategic* use to mass drone-bombing of Moscow’s central district: the force Russia to move air-defense batteries back, and staff those batteries with competent personnel.  After all, that was (reportedly) part of why Russia kept up their attacks against Ukrainian cities.

    And honestly, sure, you deplore such attacks.  I rejoice in them.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Ukraine has every right to strike at Moscow, w/in its means. Demonstrating that Ukraine can hit Moscow itself using less accurate & less sophisticated weapons may also loosen Western caution in supplying more accurate & more sophisticated weapons that can strike into Russia (if not as far as Moscow).

    However, the Ukrainian military has to take great care to avoid mass civilian casualty events (Murphy always asserts his presence in war). It will be very damaging to continued support in many Western countries, & that is not worth whatever might be gained from hitting targets in Moscow.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Since the Trump Administration’s foreign policy was light fires everywhere, I think you would have had to quietly resign fairly quickly.

    I assume you would have advised against assassinating Suleimani?

  18. 18.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman: Wise on both points. With the Trump administration, it wasn’t so much “party over country” but rather “Trump over country”. Not really possible for anyone with a conscience to last long in that shitstorm.

  19. 19.

    planetjanet

    Thank you, Adam for your reports.  President Zelenskyy makes so many visits to wounded soldiers and families.  You can tell it is very important to him.  The pictures show such a great respect.  There have been many mentions of soldiers giving chevrons to the President and he treats them as an honor.  These chevrons much have some personal meaning to the soldiers.  What exactly are they?

  20. 20.

    Alison Rose

    @eversor: Urban centers in russia can all fall down like London Bridge. Don’t start none, won’t be none. Their cities would be safe if they hadn’t started attacked cities in another country.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Just out of curiosity, what motivated your friend/mentor to be one of Trump’s transition leads? Did he not see the danger that Trump represented, & that the taint of association would not wash off?

    Of course, in today’s DC one can easily wash off the taint of association w/ the True Administration, even in “polite” circles. Just be extra-hawkish on China.

  24. 24.

    Kelly

    I took a polisci class on the Middle East my sophomore year at the University of Oregon. The class mixed undergrad and graduate students. There were several Arabic students. It was the first time I heard the Arabic side of Middle East history. I learned of the UK and French role after WW1. It was quite a thing for a country bumpkin that grew up with a very simple rah rah the Israelis are the good guys point of view. They were the US Cavalry, Arabs were the Indians. Also about that time I was educated on the USA’s western expansion genocide, so I was adjusting my thinking on that as well. A well rounded liberal education. I learned so many things besides Computer Science.

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

     Just be extra-hawkish on China.

    I have worked with Taiwanese people a number of times in my career.  I have a very,very,very good friend who is HK Chinese.  All it takes to be “extra-hawkish” on China, is to have a decent amount of care for Taiwanese people, for Hong Kongers in their travail as they face the destruction of their culture and city.

    Ugh.  Try not to lay it on so thick.

    P.S. My HK Chinese friend D. years ago (during the TFG reign) told me of how he’d frequent message boards filled with HK Chinese *in* Hong Kong.  These were people he *knew*.  And his own somewhat moderated stance on TFG (b/c he lived in the US) was greeted with “‘what, are you a PRC stooge dude, when did you turn to the dark side?”  They were all *uniformly* rah-rah Trump, b/c they felt that FINALLY SOMEBODY took the death-throes of their culture and their city seriously.  They were singing the praises of that guy Pottinger (whom we in the US view with a lot of suspicion) b/c (again) he was the one leading the charge against the PRC from the US.

    What you describe as “extra-hawkish”, from the POV of these HK Chinese interlocutors of my friend, is merely giving a damn whether they live or die.

    UGH.

  26. 26.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: in the same way that Russia has constructed a frame in which “former Soviet Union countries” are regarded in that manner, and not as countries and cultures in their own right, China has constructed that frame around Hong Kong and Taiwan.  These Hong Kongers were very clear that they felt that long standing American policy had discounted the needs and and imperatives of Hong Kongers and their culture, by always viewing things in a PRC frame.  They felt that this was a problem across both parties, baked-into the DC establishment, and that TFG’s break with that history was something so amazing that they were all ecstatic at the thought of his re-election.  They accused my friend D of having turned to the PRC simply for expressing that TFG’s re-election would be a bad thing.

    It was that bad.  It not too far to say that they were so abandoned by the world that they were willing to clutch at anything, even a straw from the faithless TFG, in their plight.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Extra-hawkish means pushing for Cold War w/ China, & propagandizing the inevitability of a hot war w/ China, & instrumentalizing Hong Kong & Taiwan as mere pawns in the great power struggle.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: What?  And we should leave our supply chains for our military, our networks, in the hands of China?  Really?  It’s *known* that China is penetrating our networks, my dude.  Disengaging all high-tech from China is only self-protection.  Look what “wandel durch Handel” got Europe, FFS.  And nobody “instrumentalizes” Taiwan in the US: Taiwan is an *ally*.

    We let China rape (yes, RAPE) Hong Kong without a fight.  Look what it got us.

  29. 29.

    Subsole

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    It also explains why Netanyahu and his fellow-travellers have such a naked, seething contempt for the Diaspora.

    If Israel is The Only Possible Safe Jewish State, any Jews who live successfully and safely* elsewhere are something of a rebuke to it.

     

    *I would dearly love America to be a state for Jews. And everyone else on Earth. Before 2016, I could sort of believe that we were. Alas.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: We are going to have to agree to disagree on this topic, if you cannot see how the GOP cynically instrumentalizes both Hong Kong & Taiwan (& Xinjiang) in their anti-China fervor, & their anti-China fervor is merely instrument (to build up a foreign “other” for everyone to fear) to realize their herrenvolk America.

    Also, if you cannot see how economically disruptive disentangling the complex global supply chains will be, especially to the economies of US’ allies & partners in the Asia Pacific (China is far & away Taiwan’s largest export market, most of it in semiconductors, electronics & machine tools), & how economic turmoil is fertile breeding ground for nativist reactionaries, then I don’t think you understand socio-political-economic drivers underlying the current global illiberal turn.

    You see the Hong Konger & TWese who flock to Trump as people desperate for help & attention, I see people who are more defined by their anti-CCP sentiments than any loyalty to liberal democratic values (there is a difference), as it was transparent how inimical Trump has always been to liberal democracy & how transparent Trump always was in treating Hong Kong, Taiwan & Xinjiang as bargaining chips for reaching the “Big Deal” w/ Xi.

  31. 31.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Let me put it this way: as long as  you don’t inject your pro-PRC agitprop into these discussions, I’ll refrain from jumping down your throat for having done so.  Deal?

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Early in the Trump administration, there prevailed a view among GOP-adjacent government/policy professionals that Trump was really a “normal” politician from a policy point-of-view, and that while his public imbecilities were the price to be paid for GOP electoral success, they would not substantially affect the continuity of US policy where it mattered. Trump’s worst instincts would be moderated by the 6000-or-so administration political appointees that he would have to hire from the usual think-tanks and corporate boards etc., and by the civil service professionals, and in the end he would be “tamed” and talked down from his extremist excesses, a bit like Reagan was.

    Many of the people lining up for jobs in the Trump administration had no idea that Trump would be making policy by toilet-Tweeting gobbledygook, based on his media diet comprised largely of Fox News talking heads who implemented their corporate policy of scaring and pissing off geriatric white folks, nor did they understand the depth to which Russian agents of influence had gotten their hooks into him and his family.  They did not predict that policy professionals would largely be cut out of the policy loop.

    So I can totally see those deluded professionals entering a transition process in good faith. Many of them certainly later regretted their naiveté.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Narcissistic assertions of moral superiority, believing that you reserve the right to jump down anyone’s throat, just makes you a pr*ck. Engage the arguments, leave the ad hominem attack.

  34. 34.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: So, you’re saying no. OK.

    You see the Hong Konger & TWese who flock to Trump as people desperate for help & attention, I see people who are more defined by their anti-CCP sentiments than any loyalty to liberal democratic values (there is a difference)

    yeah, no.  The history is very, very, very clear here.  HKers came out to support liberal democracy.  YOUR COUNTRY came in and squashed them, and at this point is imprisoning every leader they can get their hands on.  They’re searching overseas, trying to force people who fled to return to HK where they can be imprisoned.  These HKers want their goddamn freedom, and you’re defending the ghouls who took it away, are taking it away today.

    That HKers will reach out for anything, anything at all, that they think might give them succor in their extremis, is no fault: it’s what anybody does when they’re in mortal peril.

    Oh, and as for Taiwan: if the PRC didn’t demonstrate *daily* that they want to invade, with military exercises, naval and air incursions, and all manner of provocations, then *maybe* one might take seriously the idea of “normal relations” with the PRC.  Sadly, no.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Advocating against Cold War w/ China is defending CCP hard authoritarianism? How is the GOP instrumentalizing Hong Kong & Taiwan mutually exclusive w/ Beijing snuffing out the limited political rights in Hong Kong (it was a soft authoritarian regime before & after the handover) & acting aggressively toward TW?

    Keep going down this path of making rivalry w/ China the all consuming framework that motivate US foreign & domestic policy, & see which forces in the US body politic take the most advantage, & who will be most vulnerable in such a political environment.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    IMHO, you guys are kinda talking past each other.

    Hong Kong democracy was pretty much abandoned by the West.

    Sure there were words, and asylum, but other than allowing the Chinese police to set up “stations” in the West to target activists and their families, nothing much was done.

    Then TFG came along and yammered about Chyna,

    Not realizing that it was just cynical empty words to rally his base against another “other”, some Hong Kong activists got hope, ‘Merica was in their corner and was going to “do something”.

    Like everything about TFG, just an empty, word salad.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: @Chetan Murthy:  If I may attempt a lower-heat syntheis?

    A readjustment in the long-standing economic relationship between China and the West was clearly overdue by the mid-2010s, since the synergies that drove that relationship were breaking down. China’s rising economic power, transposed to political assertiveness in the International realm, could simply not coexist with Western tolerance of blatant Chinese mercantilism, directed at beggaring Western economies and exploiting trade rules as if they were weaknesses to be gamed. I believe that I have read YY_Sima_Qian express approximately the same view.

    This is an adjustment that could have been attained with some tension, but at much lower levels of confrontation and risk, if not for the poisonous subject of Taiwan. And here, I must say, I have to point to an extremely serious and dangerous blind spot in the CPC’s outlook as an important factor amplifying the toxicity of the Taiwan issue.

    The CPC’s view appears to be that US support for the continuing survival of a democratic Taiwan is driven by a desire to contain China and to protect an economically-important asset. This is not only wrong, but dangerously wrong. US support for Taiwan is driven by the fact that no US government, be it Democratic or Republican could or would tolerate for a second the suppression of a democratic ally such as Taiwan by China. This is a visceral, instinctive response that cuts across party lines. An administration that failed to respond forcefully to such an attempt would find itself in serious immediate political peril, irrespective of party affiliation.

    The CPC’s blindness to this political reality, it’s willingness to indulge in hyper-nationalistic rhetoric about Taiwan for domestic political convenience, and it’s willingness to allow the PLA to develop military plans predicated on the establishment of Chinese force preponderance, on the mistaken presumption that the US could be thus deterred from responding to an invasion, are at least as much (and in my view, more) to blame for the current danger as the admittedly idiotic, incoherent China-bashing indulged in by the Trump administration.

    China has its political imperatives driven by ideology. China ignores the analogous ideological imperatives of the US (shared, to some greater or lesser extent by other Western nations) to its extreme peril, and to that of the world.

  39. 39.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: In early 2022, most Americans didn’t even know Ukraine was a country. You saw the change that ensued following the invasion.

    It’s 2023.  And just about all Americans know about Taiwan, and many of them have known since the early Cold War. Yes, I’m as certain as I can be about anything in politics.

  40. 40.

    Subsole

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The difference is China, one way or another, would pretty much have to sink a major portion of our Pacific Fleet to reach Taiwan.

    If that be the case, I suspect the American response would be fast enough to make you swear Einstein was bullshitting us all about Relativity.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: What I am interested in is getting away from the path that can lead to war, which will result in both economic & physical ruin. Lest we forget, a war across the TW Strait, however it starts & however it ends, results in TW a smoking ruin, & the global economy in depression. The unknown is the amount of physical damage & the human toll in China, Japan & the US, & if the war has gone nuclear.

    The CCP regime, & Chinese nationalists in general, are indeed blind to how resistant the population on TW is to any prospect of rule by the CCP regime (or by any regime in Beijing, in general), however nominal, & how distrustful of any promises from Beijing (& rightly so, given what has happened in Hong Kong). To me, that is a greater blind spot than not appreciating the traditional bipartisan affinity toward Taiwan (dating back to the Cold War days of Taiwan being perceived as “Free China”, even though it was a right wing hard authoritarian regime). A lot of American policymakers & analysts are also blind to just how overwhelmingly important TW is to Chinese nationalism, far beyond the CCP regime, dating back to the days of Sun Yat-sen. That does not make it right, but it is part of the real world environment that policymakers have to operate in.

    However, there is still space to preserve peace. Few US based experts on China, Taiwan or cross-Strait relations believe Xi has made a decision to invade TW on any kind of time frame. I think Evan Feigenbaum at Carnegie is correct that, for Xi, Taiwan is a “crisis to be avoided & not an opportunity to be seized”. The PRC is bottom line is no de jure independence for TW, TW’s & the US’ bottom line is preserving TW’s de facto independence. The US is boosting arms sales to TW, expanding training engagements, & otherwise boosting “non-official” engagements that increasingly have the trappings of officialness, all intended to push back against Chinese assertiveness & deter potential Chinese aggression. Beijing is interpreting many of these moves as US & TWese salami slicing toward de jure independence, & is being even more coercive to deter such moves. Thus, we are in an interactive spiral w/ no bottom in sight. Make no mistake, most countries in the Asia Pacific are frightened by the dynamic, & blame both great powers for contributing to it.

    Preserving peace requires maintaining a certain degree of ambiguity that is unsatisfactory to all parties, but there is no alternative.

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I also would not say China was beggaring Western economies. Western countries derived enormous value from trade w/ China, & China was just the last stop in a process that started w/ outsourcing to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & SE Asia. When iPhones were 1st being assembled in China in 2007, China only accounted for < 5% of the value added, the rest went to component suppliers in the US, Japan, South Korea & Taiwan. Even now, China only accounts for 25% of the manufacturing value added in an iPhone. The US reaped even more from the sale of an iPhone, whose selling price was more than double the cost of manufacture, w/ all the additional value going to Apple for the design, as well as other US entities for distribution, retail & marketing. Or rather, to their shareholders & corporate officers. Even the white collars at Apple making great wages only captured a small slice of the value added.

    It is not China’s problem, or the E/SE Asian economies’ problem, that the US & other Western economies failed to more equitably distribute the accrued value through society. China & E/SE Asian economies themselves also failed to more adequately distribute the wealth created by the export trade, w/ labor suppressed & exploited to varying degrees, which is contributing to the illiberal turn there, & boosting the ethno-nationalists.

  45. 45.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    ‘Make no mistake most countries in the Asia Pacific are frightened by the dynamic and blame both great powers for contributing to it’

    Thank you. You are correct. One of the contributing factors to the loss of government by the conservatives in Australia last year was the growing belief that the anti China belligerence they were fostering and indulging was contributing to instability in the region and encouraging US adventurism in our region again, after nearly fifty years of US open meddling in war in the region having ceased.

    In my fifty plus years of political activism I have learned that nothing binds people together more than a common enemy, and I believe that US elites would sacrifice Australia and the Pacific region if they thought that a new ‘cold war’ this time with China, would bind the US plebs together in the ways it did during the last Cold War.

    I am frightened and always have been of US belligerence, precisely because it is a result of US domestic politics far more than it is of rational calculation of real world risks.

    Appeals by ordinary US citizens to ‘democracy’ notwithstanding, war is the destroyer not just of peace, but of the security needed for civilisation, domestic tranquility, democracy and prosperity.

  46. 46.

    Mallard Filmore

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    A lot of American policymakers & analysts are also blind to just how overwhelmingly important TW is to Chinese nationalism, far beyond the CCP regime, dating back to the days of Sun Yat-sen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Algeria

    After being a French colony from 1830 to 1848, Algeria was a part of France from 4 November 1848 when the Constitution of French Second Republic took effect until its independence on 5 July 1962.

    Borders come and go. Countries grow and shrink. Should France demand that Algeria (part of metropolitan France) return to its rule?

    Should Turkey demand that all its former empire terrirories be returned?

    Sometimes, you simply have to let things go.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: I highly recommend Van Jackson’s Pacific Power Paradox, which documents decades of US engagement in the Asia Pacific, how the US took turns being the security bulwark, aloof hegemony & active arsonist in the region, the genesis of the “Asian Peace” (Sino-US détente is one of the most important foundational elements), why the “Peace” is not teetering & how the US’ policy choices have undermined the underpinnings of that “Peace”. He also lays out the continuity in the US’ Asia Pacific policy, from Raegan, to Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump & Biden. Trump was not quite the outlier that one might believe.

  48. 48.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Mallard Filmore:

    We may think that, but nationalism is strong and potent jet fuel for domestic politics everywhere, unfortunately.

    Borders and their meaning(s) may vary over time and history but particular meanings can be resurrected or even invented, very quickly by ambitious regimes.

    US borders are very secure, north and south, east and west.

    Unlike most countries in the world.

    And unlike most countries it possess nuclear weapons, and its military is bigger and more powerful than any on the planet. A state that is both powerful and has no need to fear it’s neighbours is very dangerous. The US is a dangerous polity and State. I fear it far more than the PRC.

  49. 49.

    Aussie Sheila

    I am sick of Australian politicians, particularly Labor ones, making a bee line for the US embassy and/or consulate in Sydney, in order to demonstrate their fealty by ‘informing’ on colleagues who are less enamoured of the US than they are. Make no mistake, public statements notwithstanding, Australians distrust of the US and its intentions in the region have never been higher.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Mallard Filmore: I don’t disagree, I would advocate China accepting de jure independence for Taiwan in return for neutrality & forswearing military alliances, & I have said so to my Chinese family, friends & colleagues.

    However, Chinese nationalist passions are what they are, & my opinions are dismissed as that of an American.

    Just as Chinese military preponderance may not deter the US from directly intervening should the PRC invade (especially w/o any provocation from TW), US military preponderance will not deter China from attacking if TW declares de jure independence. Back during the 3rd TW Strait Crisis of 1996, the PRC leadership was prepared to use force, despite the military balance laughably against it.

    Finally, the US, like Japan, has especially sensitive history wrt TW, from the Chinese nationalist perspective. If the US had not parked the 7th Fleet in the TW Strait at the start of the Korean War, the PLA probably would have cross the Strait to finish the Chinese Civil War. (Then again, the PLA might have failed).

  51. 51.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I am under no illusions concerning Chinese nationalism either btw. I believe it is being increasingly utilised by the current regime as a way of deflecting from increasing inequality and lack of democracy in mainland China. I also believe there is a risk that if the regime feels threatened internally, it will turn to open belligerence regarding Taiwan as a means to secure its legitimacy, as Putin did with his criminal invasion of Ukraine.
    My fear is that the US lacks ‘cool heads’ in foreign policy crises and if a difficult U.S. election is looming, any sabre rattling by China could well result in a catastrophe.

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: What is the popular sentiments in Australia wrt AUKUS?

    From a purely military perspective, it is certainly understandable why the ADF would prefer SSNs to defend its large maritime environment, especially given how the Chinese Navy is becoming rapidly larger, more capable, & ranging farther afield. It is rational as a hedging action to confront China’s military rise. However, the cost is eye watering, Australia is on the hook to spend tens of billions to recapitalize the US’ submarine building capacity, just to get a few Virginia class SSNs in the mid ’30s, only to pivot to an “AUKUS” class designed for commonality w/ the UK, for a few more boats by the late ’30s to early ’40s. By that time, who knows what the geopolitical & military operational environment will be, & what kind of Administrations would occupy the White House in the next 2 decades.

    Biden Administration officials such as Kurt Campbell have also not been shy in stating that they believe the AUKUS deal essentially chains Australia to US Indo-Pacific policy preferences for decades into the future, despite protestations from both Morrison & Albanese that Australia will retain its foreign policy independence. But, AUKUS now appears to be a sacred cow in Australian politics that cannot be questioned.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: It is a combustible mix, which is why the “Asian Peace” is imperiled. If a GOPer wins the White House in ’24, chances are unacceptably high that China & the US will come to blows over TW by ’28.

  54. 54.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Aussie Sheila:

    Oh, and that means both Democratic and Republican governments in the US. Who could forget Pelosi’s idiotic trip to Taiwan? I haven’t, and nor have many other politically aware Australians. It was a feint aimed at US domestic policy  contingencies. It was foolhardy, adventurist and opportunist. Just like the Republican Part’s BS about China. Both US parties have an eye to their domestic constituencies, as they should. It’s just that everyone else’s interests will take a back seat. And in the event, war with China could mean existential annihalation for South Korea, Japan, the Phillipines and Australia.

  55. 55.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The AUKUS deal is on balance, accepted here. But it is not popular, and there is a considerable constituency here that regards it as a costly and foolhardy venture. This includes previously reliable US allies in the ALP Right wing. They are all uneasy about it.

     

    The end of the Cold War has had a big effect here, and one of them is that anti US sentiment which always had a reasonably large constituency is no longer confined to the ‘left’ and has grown into a mainstream position.
    This was assisted enormously by the experience of Trumps election, and the general realisation here that if it could happen once, it will happen again some time. That and the absolute opposition of a majority of Australians to adventurism in the Middle East, a la the excellent (not) adventure of the Bush regime in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  57. 57.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Opposition to it is not confined to popular feeling. It is also opposed, albeit more quietly, by many Australian foreign policy, political and military elites. It is widely considered to be a boondoggle for  US and UK military industrial interests with little upside for Australia and a lot of ‘downside’ risk. The costs are widely reviled, particularly because we have a social democratic government now and people are expecting, rightly, considerable investments in public housing and Aged Care.

  58. 58.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: For some reason, my Twitter timeline is filled w/ ASPI think tank hack types lauding the AUKUS deal as the price Australia has to pay to ensure the US remains committed to Australia.

    OTOH, some of the most vocal opponent of the deal are eccentric characters such as Paul Keating & Hugh White.

  59. 59.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Paul Keating and Hugh White may be considered ‘eccentric’ in US FP circles, but not in Australia. Both have considerable constituencies in political and FP circles here. A US Republican government in 2024 will be greeted with foreboding here, and public kow towing by the ALP government to it will be instantly rejected. In fact if they aren’t careful, the ALP will lose seats to the Australian Greens if they are seen to be accommodating US belligerence in the Region.

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: Thanks for the background. I guess I have been influence by US think tank & ASPI hacks, who have worked extra-hard to paint both as beyond the pale for polite company, & as CCP apologists.

  61. 61.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    No one in Australia doubts Keating’s or White’s patriotism. No one. There is obviously disagreement with the position of both by various political interests. However an issue of interest to politically aware people will obviously attract the attention of the politically aware as well as elites. Make no mistake. The Australian interests that back AUKUS will have support up to, and no further than it being quietly put on the back burner.

    The instant US sabre rattling is judged to be a danger to Australia’s security and peace in the region, is the instant that it will become a ‘live’ domestic issue. The ALP better hope for a more pacific US administration going forward, because if not, they are toast. It will split the Party again, as in the 1950s.

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @brantl: I think the historical bipartisan affinity for the ROC/TW had been genuine, even if there was bipartisan consensus to keep w/ strategic ambiguity so as not to commit the US to fight for TW under all circumstances. Now, I think Dems’ affinity to TW is still genuine, but for the GOP it is mostly cynical calculations. They have no higher calling beyond their American herrenvolk project. They don’t care about American democracy, why would they care about TWese democracy, other than as an asset in the Great Power Competition w/ China?

  64. 64.

    Geminid

    @Mallard Filmore: Considering the circumstances under which France left Algeria, they would be in no position to demand Algeria back.

    And Turkiye hasn’t even taken the Dodecanese Islands even though they are right off their western coast. The Dodecanese were Ottoman territories and were awarded to Italy after WWI. After the Second World War they were given to Greece over Turkiye’s protests.

    Turkeye will fly its F-16s over them, and did hundreds of times last year. But the Turkish President and Greece’s PM had a good meeting on the Vilnius sidelines, and Erdogan will probably ease up now. The two countries still have to work out ownership of the gas fields that have been found in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, but there are 5 other countries involved so this will take awhile.

    Turkiye did invade Northern Cyprus in 1974, but the Greek Cypriots and Greece’s military junta brought that upon themselves. That island has been calm and peaceful for 3 decades or more now, which you could not say about the years leading up to the Greek Cypriots’ attempt to join Greece.

    But I think each of these examples have their own background and dynamic that don’t neccesarily apply to China’s claim on Taiwan.

  65. 65.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Geminid:

    That island has been calm and peaceful for 3 decades or more now

    Laundering russian money takes energy away from making conflict.

  66. 66.

    paujl w, chicago

    @YY_Sima Qian: i’m not sure it was a matter of “acculturated”, but regardless, i think that any “state for Jews” would inevitably necessitate an existential crisis by admitting others who were not Jewish. it cannot be either a Jewish state, or a state for Jews if non  Jews become either a majority, or are able to be a large enough plurality to fundamentally re-direct the original need/meaning of the state of Israel. the end result may well be unsatisfactory to those not Jewish, but i just don’t see how Israel could otherwise exist.

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