Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Cole is on a roll !

He really is that stupid.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

A consequence of cucumbers

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

We won’t go back.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 523: Russia Bombards Kryvyi Rih!

War for Ukraine Day 523: Russia Bombards Kryvyi Rih!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

To protect the lives of Ukrainians, our military must have enough long-range weapons – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

31 July 2023 – 21:12

Dear Ukrainians!

Today at 7 p.m., the rescue operation in Kryvyi Rih on the site of the Russian missile strike was completed. It was two Iskander missiles. Ballistic missiles against a residential building. In one entrance, floors 4 through 9 were destroyed. Just against civilians, ordinary people, children. This is terrorism, which no one in the world will call otherwise.

As of now, six people are known to have been killed, including a child, a girl, her name was Darya. She was only ten years old… Her mother died with her, her name was Nataliya… An ordinary family in an ordinary city whose lives were destroyed by Russian murderers. My condolences to all those who lost their loved ones…

69 people were injured. Dozens are now in hospitals. Some of them are in serious condition. Everyone is being provided with the necessary assistance. And I thank everyone who is fighting for people’s lives! The rescue operation was difficult. Parts of the building structure were falling. There was a fire on the fourth floor. In total, more than 350 employees of the State Emergency Service, police, and utilities were involved in the rescue. Volunteers also helped. I am grateful to everyone!

Today I would like to especially mention the following employees of the State Emergency Service for the rescue operation in Kryvyi Rih: Lieutenant Vadym Kuchkurda, Junior Sergeant Volodymyr Hembichner, Petty Officer Viktor Ilika and Deputy Commander of the State Paramilitary Mining Rescue Detachment Serhiy Bytsko. Police officers: Lieutenant Colonel Mykola Harmash and Captain Roman Bondarchuk. Doctors: Vladyslav Voloshyn and Kostiantyn Isaychenkov. National Guardsmen: Sergeant Andriy Holovin, Captain Denys Tereshchenko. Utility workers Serhiy Dmytriyev and Andriy Shayda. Volunteers: Larysa Sydorenko and Viktoria Tretiak. Thank you!

It is very important when we all defend lives together and help overcome Russian terror!

According to preliminary data from our military, these two missiles were fired at Kryvyi Rih from the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea, from the area of Dzhankoy. And this proves again and again that for the safety of our cities, for the protection of the normal life of Ukrainians and our children, our military must have enough long-range weapons, enough means to defeat terrorists. The world’s sanctions pressure against Russia deserves a significant increase.

And now there is more and more open information, including investigations by journalists, about how a terrorist state circumvents global sanctions and obtains critical components for weapons production. And, by the way, we have repeatedly provided such information to our partners in a classified regime.

We must act together. Significantly strengthen sanctions for terror. Significantly limit the channels of delivery of critical components for missile production to Russia. And we must respond with determination – determination to supply Ukraine with the necessary modern weapons, including long-range missiles, so that we can remove this terrorist threat that Russia is creating against our people, against our children.

Today, Russian savages also shelled Kherson. They used artillery. A police officer was killed. My condolences. Nine people were wounded, including a child and four volunteers of the City of Power NGO…

Despite any Russian terror, despite any attempts by Russia to blackmail the world, our collective strength – of everyone in the world who values life – is enough to overcome evil. Not only can we defeat the terrorist state, but we can also ensure that justice prevails. When all those responsible for terror are held accountable. But for this we need to increase our cooperation and pressure on the aggressor every day, every week, every month. And I thank everyone in the world who is doing just that!

I thank everyone who defends freedom and humanity together with Ukraine!

And, of course, our warriors. Bakhmut. The whole of Donbas, Orikhiv and all our southern positions, the border, and everyone who keeps the regions of our country calm. Our defenders of the sky.

Thank you, our heroes! We are working on new weapons for you! Together we are bringing victory closer!

Glory to Ukraine!

 

Monday morning. Regions of Ukraine are being shelled by the occupiers, who continue to terrorize peaceful cities and people. Kryvyi Rih, Kherson. Residential buildings, a university building, a crossroads were hit. Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded. There may be people under the rubble. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones because of Russian terror. Rescuers and all necessary services are on the ground and working. We are trying to save as many people as possible. I have already spoken to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office for Regional Policy Oleksiy Kuleba and the RSA heads are already dealing with the situation. In recent days, the enemy has been stubbornly attacking cities, city centers, shelling civilian objects and housing. But this terror will not frighten us or break us. We are working and saving our people.

Rescue operation continues in Kryvyi Rih on the site of Russian missiles’ hits. Preliminary, two ballistic missiles. Floors four through nine of the residential building have been completely destroyed. The work is difficult – parts of the building’s structure were falling down. The terrorists also targeted the university building and the administrative building. As of now, five people are reported dead, including a child and her mother. My condolences! Dozens of people are injured and traumatized, all of them are being provided with the necessary assistance.

More than 350 people are involved in the rescue operation – I thank everyone who is saving lives and helping people!

More from Kryvyi Rih:

Above a blackboard on the wall of a Kryvyi Rih university destroyed by a russian ballistic missile is an inscription: “Science is the most important, the most beautiful, and the most necessary thing in a person’s life.” russians, however, subscribe to a different set of beliefs. For them, the purpose of human existence seems to lie in sacrificing oneself in the name of a dictator and waging wars of imperialism.

Dzankhoy:

Bakhmut:

Staromaiorske:

Staromaiorske remains Ukrainian. Romanov says that apparently, there was never a Russian counter-attack. Classic. “07/31/2023 Vermeevsky ledge. Staromaiorse – completely under the control of the enemy. Attempts to fight him off were only on the air – not in reality. Urozhaine has a few more days left. No more. The reason for what is happening is the complete incompetence of the command responsible for the sector.”

 

Chongar railway bridge, Russian Occupied Crimea:

In connection with the confirmed damage to the Chongar railway bridge, I consider it appropriate to recall the importance of this connection for Russian military logistics.
The railroads that Russians can use to supply the entire southern front are a connection from Armiansk towards Kherson and from Dzhankoi towards Melitopil. There are no other working railways (the railway connection from the direction of Donetsk to Volnovakha does not function).
The railway from the Armiansk to Kherson is within the reach of HIMARS and therefore cannot be used effectively. Until now, the only railway road, on which the entire southern front relied, was connection between Chongar to Melitopol. But it was damaged recently and this route is not functional yet.
If it will be possible to ensure that Russians will not be able to restore this railway line, then Russian forces on the southern front would no longer be able to rely on railroad supplies.

Tatarigami brings us this new example of Russian PSYOPs:

The Washington Post has an important and timely op-ed on the cost of delay to the Ukrainians by the allies. Here are some excerpts. It is graphics and visuals heavy, so do click across:

Last September, Ukraine requested Western tanks from allies to push back against Russia’s invasion. At that time, Russia had not consolidated much of its hold on the territory it had taken. While allies debated whether or not they should send tanks, Russia began to dig in:

Sept. 4, 2022

When Ukraine first requested Western tanks, satellite images show that Russia had only started to build fortifications.

Jan. 25, 2023

By the time Ukraine finally received the tanks, half a year later, hundreds of miles of fortifications were visible from space.

Take the occupied city of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as an example: This is how the city looked in satellite imagery on Oct. 18, 2022.

Over the next two months, Russians set up barriers outside the major roads into the city. By Jan. 26, the entire city was surrounded by fortifications.

The pattern then repeated itself. Ukraine publicly asked for cluster munitions from the United States last winter, shortly after it had liberated the southern city of Kherson. The Biden administration delayed responding to the request. Meanwhile, this is what happened in occupied territory:

Dec. 8, 2022

When Ukraine requested U.S. cluster munitions, most of Russia’s new fortifications were concentrated near the front line.

July 6, 2023

Six months later, when Ukraine finally received the cluster munitions from the United States, Russia had fortified huge swaths of occupied eastern and southern Ukraine, along the border and throughout northern Crimea.

Without fear of Ukrainian-operated Western tanks or long-range missiles, Moscow’s soldiers were able to expand defenses close to the front line and deep within occupied territory.

These positions generally consist of trenches, anti-vehicle barriers and land mines. Michael Newton, who leads the land-mine-clearing operations in Ukraine for the HALO Trust, describes Russia’s mine-laying in occupied Ukrainian territory as taking place on an “industrial level.”

The network of fortifications consists of a primary defensive line and multiple layers of fallback positions. This means that not all of Russia’s trenches are manned, but they provide ready-made fighting positions aimed at stalling a Ukrainian advance.

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron’ tweets or videos at his TikTok feed. So here’s some Patron adjacent material:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    Carlo Graziani

    Thanks for the rail logistics content.

    .        —– A Rail Logistics Content Fan

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    I know the russians obviously target anywhere and everywhere in Ukraine, but…this massive strike on Kryvyi Rih coming when it did (after the kaboom in moscow last night) feels extra intentional. I presume (and hope) Zelenskyy’s parents are in a secure location.

    I might have squeed over the puppy. My cat did not approve.

    This was a sweet little clip — Ukrainian soldiers training in the UK seeing Stonehenge from their train.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    I meant to put this up top as a housekeeping note, but it was a LOOOOOOONG day and I’m fried. So I’m putting it here. We all need to ease up a bit at times. I’m sure trying to stay current on what is going on in Ukraine, whether from these updates or other sources, takes a toll. Trust me, I’ve done five hundred or so of the updates and I have no doubt that they can make one cranky. Rather than take it out on one another here, I recommend taking a night or two off from commenting. Do some self care. But let’s not beat up on each other. I don’t want to have to give anyone a time out because what we’re bearing witness to is getting them angsty. So just cut yourselves and everyone else some slack, ease up, and step back for a day or so if you need to.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    Holy Shit! I got reposted on Blue Sky by Darth!

    Cole is going to be very jealous!

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    @frosty: This is what I see in my head that helps me restrain myself from responding to FB comments most of the time. Although I couldn’t resist the dude who commented on a post in a tag group saying that he hates when people use slang. I replied asking if he never calls anything “cool” and part of his response was to say that no one says that anymore.

    I mean, sure. No one except literally everyone. But okay.

  15. 15.

    The Pale Scot

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Jeebus Adam, a bloody link pleaze

    IMHO, the USN is not ready for a Pacific war with China. The ships are under manned and the crews are under trained. Ex the 2 or 3? collisions USN frigates and destroyers have had with civilian ships in the last 5 years. They didn’t have a proper watch crewed because of understaffing, the sailors on the bridge had a rudimentary knowledge of the newly installed navigation and steering system. Where the hell was the commander when the ship was in a busy area of a harbor?

    Not worried about the anti ship ballistic missiles, even if their sensors can see thru the plasma field created by the speed of the missile, it will be like the A-10 pilots in Iraq using the Maverick’s infra system to find targets. “Like looking thru a straw”.

  16. 16.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: Just saw it now, thanks for bumping it.

    I have Alan Clarke’s 1965 Barbarossa, which is probably in need of a historical refreshing, so I think I will grab a copy of Read & Fisher when I get a chance. Not sure I want the ebook on this, though, the maps are usually illegible…

  17. 17.

    pieceofpeace

    Adam, you give us updates daily, for us to have a far and away experience, to grieve and try to understand this tragedy as it unfolds, while taking us on an unwelcome, horrific journey.  That’s a daunting undertaking, no matter how seasoned you are.  Very, very grateful to you, each time.

  19. 19.

    Anonymous At Work

    I’d say “Adam” but he’s fried and I know who’s mostly likely to respond:

    What’s the disruption going to be for the lack of rail on the Russian southern and western fronts?  Artie’s getting chewed good, I imagine that regular ammo isn’t available in quantity, but what’s the food/water situation like?  Without rail and the roads not in great shape, what gives?

  21. 21.

    Alison Rose

    @frosty: See, even Ken says it!!

    But like, I was so baffled. Does this dude literally not know anyone who says ‘cool’? Because everyone I know, from people in their teens to 80s, says it. I barely even consider it slang anymore.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: When you have the time, I would still greatly appreciate your thoughts on Tartarigami_UA’s comments on the drawbacks the Ukrainian Army’s higher echelon command, as well as whether the lack of a division/corps/group army echelon really is hurting the Ukrainian offensive. I have not seen any other analyst explicitly make the latter point.

  23. 23.

    frosty

    @Alison Rose: ​
     You’re absolutely right. “Cool” is not slang, it’s normal. Interesting how it survived from the 50s (30s maybe?) to the present and got established. “Hep” certainly didn’t.

  30. 30.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Adam L Silverman: That’s fine but I figured any mention of “T-R-A-I-N-S” would draw in another commentator.

    And I have been taking some self-care on this.  Frankly, Musk’s problem with pen-X helped get me off depressing updates.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    Christiaan Triebert
    @trbrtc
    1h

    Just moments ago, reports of yet another drone attack in Moscow (early hours of August 1), making it the fourth attack in the span of just one week. Threading details as they emerge below:

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    China has just announced temporary export controls on drones & certain types of drones & components:

    1. Drones w/ > 7 kg take max of weight & > 4kg empty weight & > 30 min flight time are w/in scope of export controls
    2. Drones w/in the specified weight class & have at least one of the following functions are subject to the controls: non-civilian grade radios, integrated w/ thermal imagine cameras beyond specified resolution, munition dispensing mechanisms, laser range finders beyond specified ranges
    3. Drone components: motors w/ > 16 kW power, thermal imaging cameras beyond specified resolution, synthetic aperture radars w/ > 5 km range, radio controllers w/ > 50 km range, control stations that control > 10 drones simultaneous
    4. Civilian anti-drone soft kill weapon w/ > 5 km range
    5. Exporters need to obtain authorization from the government to export the controlled items; they need to verify the end users to ensure the items will not be used for military, terrorism & WMD proliferation, as condition to receive authorization
    6. The controls apply to all exports, & will last no more than 2 years (though could also be extended)

    Based on the weight classification, it seems only “industrial” drones (such as the DJI Matrice series) are controlled, whereas the consumer drones (such as the DJI Mavic series) are not. That latter is the most ubiquitous on both sides of the battlefield.

    However, China does not yet have an established end user verification regime or an established bureaucracy for enforcement. Chinese companies are not experienced in doing any kind of end user verification. I doubt the export control will have any impact, nor do I think the Chinese government is that serious about really keeping Chinese made drones or components off the battlefield.

    I am not to sure about the motivation behind the new controls, but if China establishes export control & then proceeds to approve exports to Russia, it will catch more flak from the West than if China had not implemented any controls to begin w/. My WAG is that this is a performative response to EU criticisms about Chinese companies exporting drones to Russian entities. We might see direct export to Russia dry up, but drones & components will continue to stream into Russia via Kazakhstan, Türkiye & the UAE, & into Ukraine via the EU. Of course, there is no export controls on smaller consumer drones.

  34. 34.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: A physical copy of the DeadlyEmbrace can be had fairly inexpensively, I think . The photos are good. I believe Read and Fisher did the research while producing a BBC documentary about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

  36. 36.

    Geminid

    @The Pale Scot: There were two collisions and they weren’t in the last five years. One occurred August 21, 2017 and the other was two months before that. Neither was in a harbor.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    Michael MacKay
    @mhmck
    6h
    Partisans of the National Resistance report the train station in Kerch in temporarily-occupied Crimea has been mined. Russian occupiers stopped traffic on the illegally-constructed Kerch Bridge.

    Multiple explosions are audible in Simferopol, the administrative capital of Crimea.

    https://nitter.net/mhmck/status/1686104373120634880#m

  38. 38.

    Jay

    FTFNYT but,………..

    David Frum
    @davidfrum
    Jul 30
    NYT reports that Elon Musk personally thwarted a Ukrainian military operation he disapproved of. nytimes.com/interactive/2023…

    Jul 30, 2023 · 11:07 AM UTC

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT, but the top leadership of the PLA Rocket Force has been replaced – FT article w/ the details:

    Absolute loyalty’: Xi Jinping turns anti-corruption focus to China’s military
    Senior officers in nuclear weapons division under scrutiny as president strengthens party’s control over armed forces

    The dismissed commanders had been promoted by Xi, meaning people he had felt comfortable w/ & trusted. No surprise corruption is involved. China is undergoing a major expansion of its nuclear force, & more importantly has constructed hundreds of missile siloes in the northwestern deserts (most will probably empty in a Shell Game strategy). As is the case everywhere, construction offers plenty of opportunities for graft. The CEO of the main state owned shipbuilding conglomerate was dismissed & indicted last year. China has been undergoing a major naval build up.

    Very unusual though that the new PLARF commander comes from the PLA Navy & the new commissar cones from the PLA Air Force. Cross service postings have been unheard since the very early days the PRC, when China was trying to stand up a navy & an Air Force, & had to assign Army veteran commanders to staff up the new services. These new moves suggest a lack of confidence in the upper echelons of the PLARF, which operates the land component of China’s nuclear arsenal.

    There are also rumors that the PLARF commanders had leaked secrets, & similar rumors had circulated around former FM Qin Gang. Pillow talk to mistresses? (Patreus comes to mind.) CIA Director Burns did claim at the Aspen Security Forum that the CIA has been making progress reestablishing its HUMINT network in China.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anonymous At Work: Sorry, was making/cleaning up dinner. Clam spaghetti can’t be hurried, you know.

    I don’t have anything specific on the current logistical state-of play, hopefully Adam can bring in a fresh load tomorrow. But you’re quite right to point to food, water, fuel, motor transportation parts, etc. in addition to artillery ammunition, dispersable mines, etc. Generally-speaking all that stuff is desperately needed, and constraining supply channels—which for Russian logistics mean rail transport up to the final 50 km or so, to depots serviced by trucks—means that the Russians must make painful choices about load priority. The greater the constraint, the more painful the choices, as it obviously does them no good to serve plentiful ammunition to starving troops serviced by a diminishing fleet of decrepit trucks.

    That map up there shows the very limited rail service through Crimea, and the critical crossroads at Dzhankoi, which railyard I would expect to receive some attention from UA long -range munitions, although unfortunately the Storm Shadow warheads are unitary-type rather than the dispersible cluster munition warheads that are more effective against such targets. The implicit story behind that rail map is that those lines are nearly the only ones serving the great logistical depot at Rostov-on-Don, and the only ones that can reliably serve the Southern coast and the south-bank Dnipro theaters. The other route from Rostov passes through Donetsk(!) and thence to the land bridge, and parts of it are in HIMARS range.

    So, Kerch, Dzhankoi, Chongar are all extreme pain points for the Russians, and supremely enticing targets for the UA. If any of them—particularly Dzhankoi or Kerch—could be made unusable, even for just a few weeks during a critical time for the counter-offensive, the Russians might actually panic.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I speak under correction, but I have the impression that Xi’s “corruption-fighting” campaigns were never concerned with actual corruption, but rather with bureaucratic warfare, in which “corrupt” incumbent officials were replaced by new ones appointed by, and loyal to, Xi.

    Obviously, that bureaucratic war is over, as Xi successfully swept the board. Nonetheless it seems to me that there is no more reason to take such corruption charges seriously today than there was a decade ago. Your speculations concerning disloyalty or indiscretion seem more likely on the mark.

  42. 42.

    Geminid

    @Jay: The timing here and with the bridge strike may be significant. The bridge is thought to have been hit by a Stormshadow cruise missile, and Ukraine has had them for two months now. Those partisans have likely been in Crimea for a while.

    So why strike now? It’s possible these strikes presage an increase in tempo on the Zaporizhia front.

  43. 43.

    Bennett

    Is it just me, or does Zelensky seem especially pissed off tonight? I wish his allies had his urgency and righteous anger.

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: An Independence class Littoral Combatant Ship (USS Cleveland) collided w/ a tug during the launch ceremony in 2023. A Sea Wolf class SSN (USS Connecticut) collided w/ an underwater mountain in the South China Sea in 2022, & won’t return to service until 2026. A Wasp class amphibious assault ship (USS Bonhomme Richard) was lost in a fire while undergoing maintenance in 2020. The US Pacific Fleet’s upper ranks is still recovering from the “Fat Leonard” scandal.

    The USN surface fleet screwed up multiple procurement programs in massive boondoggles (the LCS, the DDG(X), the CG(X), the Ford class CVN) that has led to a 10 year period of dwindling hull numbers w/ aging hulls. US navalists are calling it the “Terrible ’20s”. SSNs, which most US naval analysts are counting on to defeat a Chinese invasion of TW, has seen the number of operationally ready boats decrease from 41 in FY ’08 to 30 in FY ’23, even though the overall roster only decreased by 2, due to a massive maintenance/repairs backlog (also why the USS Connecticut is not due back until ’26). Construction of Virginia class SSNs (at 1.2 / yr.) also cannot cover the expected retirement rate of the LA class SSNs. Never mind that the very shallow waters w/in the 1st Island Chain, including the TW Strait, are not friendly to operations by the large SSNs. The USN only met 60% of its recruitment goals in 2022, the USMC is the only branch that reached 100% of target.

    Things are not OK w/ the USN. That does not mean the PLAN’s chance of success is high: it is a completely untested force, & faces challenges staffing the naval expansion, & developing doctrines/tactics that can take full advantage of the new advanced gear. The USN retains overwhelming advantage outside of the 1st Island Chain, & is capable (particularly w/ allies) of running a distant blockade against China. (Of course, every singe TW related scenario results in global economic depression.)

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Xi & the CCP leadership are very much concerned about corruption. Since the Wild Wild East days of the Jiang-Hu period the party leadership correctly saw rampant corruption as the single biggest threat to CCP regime legitimacy & security, & provided the space for the CIA (& probably other foreign intelligence agencies) to penetrate deep into the central Party-State apparatus (the network was rolled in 2010). That was the impetus behind the decision by the collective leadership to move away from the collective leadership structure in 2012, & elevate Xi above the rest for a more centralized regime. Many of them got more than they bargained for, as Xi very cunningly proceeded to purge or sideline all rival centers of power & consolidate everything around himself. What Xi & the CCP leadership will not do is to allow the independent judiciary, free press & other outside institutional checks to contain corruption.

    Speaking as some who has lived in China for the past 15 years, petty corruptions that used be a fact of life has mostly disappeared, whether as average person or in business operations interacting w/ government, a big reason why Xi retains strong popular support. Graft is certainly still present in government & in certain business sectors. Not sure about corruption at the highest levels of leadership. As pervasive as corruption was in the ’00s, people didn’t think of the top leadership as corrupt. Then NYT, WSJ & Bloomberg did some outstanding reporting into the accumulated wealths of close relatives of Hu, Wen & Jiang, & their close association w/ real estate & tech tycoons, reporting that got them blocked by the Great China Firewall.

    Any China expert w/ deep experience & knowledge will tell you that Xi’s anticorruption campaign is about both containing corruption & consolidating power. If it was just the latter, he would ease up as he has consolidated power, lest he alienate his supporters.

  46. 46.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I meant to respond in yesterday’s thread (but it got late) that I totally agree with you on the desirability of a return to universal disavowal of de jure independence for Taiwan, while broadening deconfliction measures and dialing down both the rhetoric and the military posturing. If the poison could be drawn from the Taiwan situation, I believe that the rest of the US-China relationship would relax to a cold-yet-quite-manageable state.

  48. 48.

    Betsy

    I walked through the timeline of FDR’s four terms at the FDR Presidential Library today, and I was struck: we seem to be in a roughly sismilar period to 1938-1940, having dodged a double-dip depression, watched as an imperialist fascist power threatens then invades a democracy, has designs and actions in other vulnerable nations (former colonies) around the globe, have to ramp up our supplying of war materiel despite political and policy limits on our ability to be the arsenal that is desperately  needed to help a friendly democracy protect itself from fascist expansion …

  49. 49.

    way2blue

    I find the ongoing reluctance of the U.S. government to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine especially excruciating.  To watch cities & ports bombarded by Russian missiles.  Grain depots, churches, schools, hospitals…   Often unprotected by air-defense systems as Ukraine would need hundreds, thousands of them to secure the skies.   Just seems immoral to me.

    Instead of trying to bat the missiles out of the sky & hope  the debris doesn’t hit anyone.   How about providing weapons that can take out the source of the missiles—the missile launchers be they ships, subs, aircraft or land-based.

    The same tragic refrain night after night.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I am not hopeful that will happen. Some GOPers are already making noises about officially recognizing TW independence, & the Biden Administration will be pressured to further upgrade the “unofficial” diplomatic & military relationship w/ TW, which Beijing will interpret as accelerating salami slicing toward de jure independence. Biden’s repeated vows to come to TW’s defense in case of PRC attack is interpreted by Beijing as giving TW’s pro-independence forces carte blanche to salami slice toward de jure independence. The whole point of “Strategic Ambiguity” is to discourage such developments in TW.

    The DPP candidate for TWese president is a much more vocally pro-independence than the current DPP president, although he has been backtracking to reduce anxieties among the TWese electorate & the Biden Administration toward his stance. The pro-independence DPP is currently unpopular due to its lackluster domestic governance, but the opposition is split between 2 parties (both more pro-engagement w/ Mainland China, the KMT more willing to do so under the auspices of a notional “One China”, the TPP on the basis of shared culture/blood).

    We have a perfect storm coming, & not the good kind.

Comments are closed.