• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓
  • ←
  • →

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

This really is a full service blog.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

Accountability, motherfuckers.

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Come on, man.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Mobile Menu

  • Seattle Meet-up Post
  • 2025 Activism
  • Targeted Political Fundraising
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • COVID-19
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2025 Activism
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!
You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 529: The Russian Bombardments Continue

War for Ukraine Day 529: The Russian Bombardments Continue

by Adam L Silverman|  August 6, 20236:53 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

FacebookTweetEmail

Just a quick housekeeping note: I know that a number of you are upset regarding my, as well as other front pagers, use of tweets in our posts. While I can’t speak for my colleagues, the reason these get used is because of Twitter’s unique place among social media platforms. If you think of these platforms as a social network itself, Twitter is the bridging and connecting node for all the rest. Or, at least, all the rest that have any size and reach. Breaking news, by reporters or everyday people or government agencies, all gets posted on Twitter. Even if it started on a Facebook page. Facebook pages/posts, Instagram posts, YouTube videos, etc all get reposted on Twitter. The Telegram posts of the Russian milbloggers would not be known at all but for them being reposted and/or translated and reposted on Twitter. Until something replaces Twitter in this unique position within the social media platform ecosystem, we’re going to have to use it. Even as the Starlink Snowflake degrades the platform.

The Russians once again bombarded Ukraine overnight!

Yesterday, russians attacked Ukraine with cruise missiles, aeroballistic missiles, and drones.
Ukrainian air defense destroyed:
17 Kalibr missiles;
13 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles;
27 Shahed UAVs.
Information about Kinzhals is classified.
Glory to Ukraine's air defenders!
Happy…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 6, 2023

Yesterday, russians attacked Ukraine with cruise missiles, aeroballistic missiles, and drones.
Ukrainian air defense destroyed:
17 Kalibr missiles;
13 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles;
27 Shahed UAVs.
Information about Kinzhals is classified.
Glory to Ukraine’s air defenders!
Happy Ukrainian Air Force Day!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine needs strength and maximum focus on achieving victory – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

6 August 2023 – 20:16

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I was honored to congratulate all our warriors of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on their professional day. All of our pilots and anti-aircraft gunners, specialists who provide the technical side of our aviation and air defense… This is the day of true Ukrainian heroes who save lives and protect our cities and villages from Russian terror against all odds. What is very important is that our Air Force warriors give not only us, but also the entire free world a clear confidence that Russian terror can be defeated.

Today, I heard a report on the use of advanced air defense systems – Patriots and IRIS-T, which we received from our partners – by our warriors. I am grateful to every country, every leader who helped us with them! These are powerful systems, very effective… They have already yielded significant results. And not only for Ukraine. Because every destruction of Russian missiles in our skies, especially air-launched ballistic “Kinzhals”, which Russian terrorists have long boasted about… Every success of our warriors is a reassurance to the world that a terrorist state is not able to undermine common security.

In this week alone, Russian terrorists have already used 65 different missiles and 178 attack drones against us, including 87 “Shaheds”. We managed to shoot down a significant number of them. We will do our best to make the Ukrainian sky shield only stronger. Here, in our skies, we can prove that terror is losing. All together we can prove it – all partners. The responsible position of each partner in supplying air defense systems and missiles to them is very important. Complete protection against terror is needed here, so that later there is no need to think about protecting other nations from it. Ukraine can win this battle, and our sky shield will eventually guarantee security for the whole of Europe.

Today, I awarded our Air Force servicemen and talked to them. We are equally eager to see F-16s in action in the Ukrainian skies as soon as possible. We are doing everything for this. Today, I also handed over the Gold Stars of the Hero of Ukraine to the families of the pilots killed in action for the sake of our country. Eternal memory to every hero and eternal gratitude to every Ukrainian family that gave our people such heroes… May Ukraine’s victory in this terrible war be the highest honor to all those who chose the defense of our people as their destiny!

We are already preparing for the next week to further strengthen our state and our positions.

There will be new communication with partners on defense packages for Ukraine. We will add even more content to the international events of August and September that have already been planned. These include the Crimea Platform, the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, and our participation in the UN General Assembly. Of course, we will also continue the internal purge of our state from those who, unfortunately, weaken Ukraine through their abuses.

Ukraine needs only strength, only maximum focus on achieving victory. If someone already thinks that the war is “somewhere over there” and that someone else has to win the war, then they need to come back to reality. Only as a nation can we pull through. Every day we need to deliver results for Ukraine and for all those who are fighting for Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who is bringing our victory closer in this way! Glory to our warriors! Glory to our people! To the strong and beautiful people! And once again, congratulations on the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Best wishes to our skies' defenders.
Today we honor those who are constantly on guard and can save hundreds of lives with a single shot. Those who can outrun the wind and have eagle vision. Those who are ready to master the F-16 and Patriot in the shortest possible time. We… pic.twitter.com/YIWSJBkLcm

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 6, 2023

Best wishes to our skies’ defenders.
Today we honor those who are constantly on guard and can save hundreds of lives with a single shot. Those who can outrun the wind and have eagle vision. Those who are ready to master the F-16 and Patriot in the shortest possible time. We remember those who are forever in heaven.
Happy Ukrainian Air Force Day!

Obligatory:

Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)

 

Hide and seek. Last night, dozens of russian missiles and Shaheds searched for Ukrainian planes and Storm Shadow missiles at the airfields. But it wasn’t until today, in Chonhar and near Henichesk, that the russians finally found them. pic.twitter.com/Ei09qyFwR2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 6, 2023

This guy has more guts than every Russian-bought-and-paid-for-Twitter-influencer combined. https://t.co/xT6UhrweBs

— Ron Nehring (@RonNehring) August 6, 2023

Defenders of democracy aesthetics. pic.twitter.com/dXTFKZt4rM

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 6, 2023

Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (Ukrainian blogger) hints that explosions in Crimea/Henichensk district today were carried out by the same planes that Russia claimed to have destroyed in last night's strikes lol pic.twitter.com/LOKlLS62Ng

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 6, 2023

 

The Tryzub is up!

Good morning, Ukraine ☀️
They did this in the early day so everyone could wake up stunned.
📸@unian pic.twitter.com/GiRWTca6RZ

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 6, 2023

This morning, the Ukrainian coat of arms was installed on the Motherland monument’s shield in Kyiv, replacing the Soviet hammer and sickle that had been there for decades. pic.twitter.com/seJJ23T7pT

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 6, 2023

Today is not a public holiday or any other formal occasion. However on this Sunday, we wanted to once again thank our ally, the United States of America, and the American people for their unwavering support to our people and our country. We will never be able to fully express our…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 6, 2023

Today is not a public holiday or any other formal occasion. However on this Sunday, we wanted to once again thank our ally, the United States of America, and the American people for their unwavering support to our people and our country. We will never be able to fully express our gratitude for your help. May God bless the United States of America!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

Ukrainian Valkyrie:

Brave. Strong. Indomitable. pic.twitter.com/3WKPxXaXfS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 6, 2023

Donetsk:

This was not easy to caption so you may find the transcript useful: pic.twitter.com/1LEKkciiZb

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 6, 2023

Heated argument in Donetsk between a local and an occupier: desperate man armed with a hatchet accuses the Russian of nazi-like behavior. “In 10 years, you only brought me sorrow, not joy” he says.

It is difficult to understand what is happening without context but the occupier seems to have moved to Donetsk in 2014 (Abakumova is a district of Donetsk), while the local man says he was tortured by invaders. Clearly, the man is distressed after 10 years of occupation. He avoids directly saying whether he is “for” or “against” something, probably aware of potential consequences.

This interaction indicates that the mood on the ground in Donetsk is not what Russians want you to believe.

Last night Nukular Biskits asked:

Adam, once (if?) hostilities have ceased, what is your opinion about how the international community should pursue war crimes prosecutions against Russians and/or Russia itself?

And are there any credible claims that Russia might could make against Ukrainians?

I expect the international community to do what they are already setting the stage to do. They are going to run the usual war crimes tribunal process in the Hague. There are no credible claims that Russia could make against Ukrainians. Though I expect they’ll try. I also expect they’ll weaponize InterPol like they do with their other opponents.

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There’s a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. These don’t embed. So click across if you want to see it.

Open thread!

FacebookTweetEmail
Previous Post: « Sunday Late Afternoon Open Thread
Next Post: Medium Cool – Music as Poetry! Medium Cool – Music as Poetry! 1»

Reader Interactions

30Comments

  1. 1.

    Nukular Biskits

    August 6, 2023 at 7:09 pm

    Once again, Adam, thanks for the time and effort.

  2. 2.

    Yutsano

    August 6, 2023 at 7:45 pm

    I have a feeling that conversation in Donetsk isn’t very uncommon. And it’s even possible Russian soldiers just don’t come back from patrol and no one has any idea where they went. Except the pigs and chickens are nice and fat…

  3. 3.

    Nelle

    August 6, 2023 at 8:27 pm

    Thank you, Adam.  The statue is immense and impressive.  I arrived in Kyiv by water, up the Dnipro (started in Odesa, then to Kherson and northward).  It is impressive, looming over the land and the river.  I’m glad for the change on it.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    August 6, 2023 at 8:28 pm

    (FYI Zelenskyy’s video is missing from the post.)

    I love seeing the Tryzub on the monument! Although, every time I’ve seen photos or video of people up there, I want to hide under the bed. According to Wikipedia, the overall structure including the base is 335 feet tall. Not sure if that’s to the statue’s head or the tip of the sword, but that would equal around, what…22, 23 stories? NO THANK YOU. There could be a literal pot of gold waiting for me up there and I’d remain on the ground where God intended me to dwell.

    People who continue to grouse about tweets in posts are tedious and need to go do their holier-than-thou thing elsewhere.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 8:50 pm

    The change to the Motherland Monument serves three purposes simultaneously:

    1. Remove the last symbols that glorified the USSR (the Motherland referred to the Soviet Union)
    2. Invest new meaning into the monument as symbol of Ukrainian national resistance against Russian aggression (I think it will be renamed to Mother Ukraine Monument)
    3. Retains meaning that symbolizes the enormous Ukrainian sacrifices & contributions to defeat of Nazism (lest any would be ultranationalists thinks it trendy to flirt w/ Neo-Nazism)
  6. 6.

    Nelle

    August 6, 2023 at 9:09 pm

    I’m listening to Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine (Applebaum).  The purge of university faculty in 1932-33 could be recast to Florida right now.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 9:23 pm

    Some positive developments out of Jeddah, according the the WSJ:

    With China Attending, Ukraine Peace Discussions Inch Forward

    Saudi-hosted talks, which excluded Russia, narrowed gaps between Ukraine and major developing countries over fair conditions to end the war

    Efforts to forge an international consensus around a durable and fair peace settlement to the war in Ukraine inched forward Saturday after discussions in Saudi Arabia among senior officials from 42 countries, including the U.S., China, India and Ukraine.

    Ukraine and its Western backers have pitched the talks as an effort to rally global support behind conditions for ending the war that would favor Ukraine. Many big developing countries have been largely neutral on the conflict.
    After the talks in Jeddah concluded, diplomats said there was broad acceptance that central principles of international law, like respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, should be at the heart of future peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. There was agreement on pursuing more detailed work on the global impact of the war, and most countries attending, including China, appeared willing to meet again in the coming weeks in the current format, with Russia excluded, according to people involved in or briefed on the closed-door talks.

    …

    The meeting’s location Saturday carried important symbolism, as Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe have pushed to bolster support for Kyiv in the global south. Western diplomats have said the kingdom was picked to host partly in hopes of persuading China to participate, as Riyadh and Beijing maintain close ties.

    Saudi Arabia is trying to play a larger role in diplomacy on Ukraine, after the U.S. accused it last year of siding with Russia to keep oil prices high—thus bolstering Moscow’s finances.
    “A lot of credit to the Saudi hosts for the diplomatic engagement,” a U.S. official said.

    …

    The biggest difference between the Copenhagen and Jeddah meetings was attendance—more than twice as many countries attended or dialed into Saturday’s talks. That included European countries, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa.
    Most significantly China, which was invited to Copenhagen but stayed away, sent a delegation to Jeddah. Western diplomats said Beijing played a generally constructive role in the talks.

    As Russia’s most important foreign ally, China is seen as crucial to building traction behind the talks and potentially offers a way to feed into the discussions some of Moscow’s red lines and concerns, diplomats have said. Saudi Arabia’s top leadership and Ukraine had pushed hard for Beijing to attend.

    …

    A senior U.S. official said that national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland met with the head of the Chinese delegation, Beijing’s peace envoy Li Hui, on the sidelines.

    “It was very good to have the Chinese here,” the U.S. official said.

    …

    In Jeddah, Ukraine and the major developing countries appeared keener to seek out a consensus. A senior European official said that Ukraine didn’t push again for its peace plan to be accepted and other countries weren’t insisting that Kyiv drop it. Nor was there any crossfire over Ukraine’s demand for the withdrawal of Russian troops. Ukraine didn’t press the point, two diplomats said, nor was it challenged by developing countries.

    …

    Saudi Arabia plans to propose a set of working groups for specific issues raised in the Ukrainian peace plan, some of which touch on the global impact of the war. That could include nuclear safety, environmental spillovers and food security—a concern underscored in recent days by the collapse of the United Nations-brokered Black Sea grain initiative.

    “The consensus is that this isn’t a European war, but has impact on food, energy and economic stability globally and that it will take everyone on board to get to the final outcome of a settlement,” said a diplomat from one of the non-Western countries.

    US diplomats may also be buttering up Saudi Arabia in Western press to boost the Saudi-Israeli treaty they are pushing.

  8. 8.

    Frank Wilhoit

    August 6, 2023 at 9:26 pm

    Adam, in my view your use of Twxixtxtexr exploits the platform without endorsing it.  As such there is no objection.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 9:52 pm

    Meanwhile, Alexander Gabuev at the Carnegie Endowment has a good Twitter thread layout the contradictory forces driving Chinese calculation wrt the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

    Does participation of Li Hui envoy on war, in Saudi-hosted peace consultations over the weekend mean that Beijing is about to abandon its tacit support for the Kremlin, as some people want to believe? Let’s take a look. (Spoiler alert: hardly). 1/20

    …

    4/ Beijing has 3 goals: 1) Deepen partnership with , maximize gains from increased leverage; 2) Minimize damage to ties with the West over war, and use it to drive a wedge between &; 3) Position itself as the only party of peace in UNP5 for the Global South.

    5/ Relationship with is of paramount importance amid deepening of rivalry that Beijing sees as inevitable. Multiple advantages for China from Russia’s vassalage, from cheap commodities to new weapons, are listed in this @ForeignAffairs piece:

    6/ At the same time, China thinks in counterfactuals: if it throws under the bus over , ties with won’t fundamentally improve. The West is likely pocket help, and continue to pile up its pressure on China, while Beijing may simply lose Moscow as a useful ally.

    …

    9/ This is why Xi sending Li Hui to Jeddah was a very expectable move. It supports China’s claim to be a force for peace that seeks solutions. It’s a smart investment into partnership since hosting the conference and secure Chinese participation was important for KSA, and…

    10/ …it’s also a smart move to engage the U.S. and show that China is an indispensable diplomatic partner for stopping the war, thus broadening scope of items where needs – and thus shouldn’t be overly hostile to Beijing. Same is true for China’s hopes with .

    11/ Based on what we know by now (look out for excellent reporting by @laurnorman & @stephenkalin), Li Hui has handled Jeddah summit quite well if measured against these goals. He pitched 12-point plan, engaged @JakeSullivan46 & @UnderSecStateP etc.

    12/ Key question is whether Beijing’s attendance in Jeddah with no obligations will later translate into China’s actions, i.e. Beijing will put pressure on Russia in order to end the war along the lines the West and Kyiv hope. So far I see no evidence for such a shift.

    13/ Beyond desire to get something tangible from & in exchange for Beijing’s support on , and Beijing’s understandable concerns over the fate of a China-friendly regime in , current crude reality on the battlefield in Ukraine is also a factor that China can’t ignore.

    …

    15/ The situation on the battleground is fluid, and we may see spectacular victory that will force Putin to negotiate on Kyiv’s terms. But that’s not the way most military analysts look at things now. See this sobering take of @KofmanMichael & @RALee85.

    …

    17/ Even if China decides to abandon trade with Russia, will it ensure that Putin will sue for peace and purchase a ticket to the Hague to stand @IntlCrimCourt? Or would he rather try to escalate the war in order to turn the tables? For many reasons Beijing won’t risk to find out

    …

    19/ Nevertheless, involvement may be quite helpful if not ambitious goals like unilateral surrender, but more limited objectives are pursued. So far, Xi Jinping’s voice was useful in telling Putin that use of nuclear weapons will have consequences.

    20/ Another set of limited goals where Beijing may play a role could be return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, measures on safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine (both are in 12-point document), as well as quite work to return of children abducted by . END

    Beijing is probably right that DC will pocket any Sino-Russian break & continue its Great Power Competition, a lot of the sources for rivalry & conflict are structural. However, it is probably wrong about the EU.

  10. 10.

    Yutsano

    August 6, 2023 at 9:57 pm

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​Eh. Diplomats gonna diplomat. I’m more happy the PRC got involved. I don’t see a peace and reconstruction deal that doesn’t involve the second largest economy in the world. The world has a chance to get united against the Russian aggression. I’m not saying the PRC is going to suddenly side with the West here but even pursuing their own interests on the side of Ukraine (while maintaining that balancing act your diplomats do so well) will help tremendously.

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 9:58 pm

    @Yutsano: I have another comment that calibrates expectations, currently awaiting moderation.

    I am more struck by the seeming shift in sentiments across the Global South. Before, it was all aloofness.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    August 6, 2023 at 10:10 pm

    @YY_Sima Qian: I have freed it.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks!

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    August 6, 2023 at 11:01 pm

    @YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    August 6, 2023 at 11:22 pm

    As Nelle says, the statue is very imposing. You can see it from most locations in Kyiv. I am delighted they put the tryzub on it.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 6, 2023 at 11:30 pm

    @Yutsano: BTW, as I am Chinese American, Chinese diplomats are not “my” diplomats. & they have not been skillful at all in maintaining the balancing act. They are being pulled in opposite directions in their daily work: to engage pragmatically w/ their foreign counterparts to achieve pragmatic outcomes, to influence their increasingly skeptical (if not hostile) counterparties, to pugnaciously assert official Chinese positions (invariably performances for the CCP leadership from Xi on down as well as the increasingly nationalistic Chinese population), & to coerce/browbeat smaller countries that are perceived to have undermined Chinese interests. These contradictory demands are impossible to meet, & Chinese diplomats attempt to achieve the impossible w/ varying degrees of skill (see the former PRC ambassador to France for a less skilled example).

  17. 17.

    Geminid

    August 6, 2023 at 11:32 pm

    @YY_Sima Qian: Laura Rosen (@lrozen) retweeted Ukrainian national security advisor Andriy Yermak on the Jeddah talks:

       Important work in Jeddah. The second meeting of NSA’s and MFA political directors of the leading states of the world regarding the key principles of a just and lasting peace for Ukraine took place.

    The Ukrainian delegation, which I was honored to lead, successfully promoted the Peace Formula of President Zelenskyy.

    Over 40 nations were represented at Jeddah, almost three times more than in the Copenhagen consultations.

    If Jake Sullivan and company got Saudi Arabia to adopt a more supportive policy towards Ukraine, I say more power to them.

    But I think trying to broker a peace agreement  between Saudi Arabia and Israel is unwise and unnecessary. The two countries have a good working relationship as it is, and Saudi Arabia has assented to Israel’s inclusion in the CentCom framework including military exercises.

    The Saudis have been preparing their citizens for normalization, but they also have real reservations that only Israel can resolve. And this Israeli government makes normalization an especially fraught and dubious project right now.

  18. 18.

    Feathers

    August 7, 2023 at 12:08 am

    Honestly, the great musky satan is losing money on the twitter. If you aren’t giving him any money, he’s losing money on every tweet you post or read. So staying on the platform is hurting him. Sure he’s getting ad money, but not enough to cover much of his costs. For me, it would be a different calculation if twitter were anything close to profitable.

    Also, I just think I must have lower expectations for humanity than most, because all the hellhole whining just feels odd to me. This is what people are like.

  19. 19.

    Anoniminous

    August 7, 2023 at 12:17 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    17/ Even if China decides to abandon trade with Russia ….

    That’s absurd.  China isn’t going to abandon trade with Russia.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 7, 2023 at 12:33 am

    @Geminid: The Saudi’s are asking for security pact w/ the US, F-35 stealth fighters, & transfer of civilian nuclear tech (including uranium enrichment). Normalization between Israel & Saudi Arabia is a good thing, but the current Saudi asking price from the US seems to be non-starters. The US probably does not want to be on the hook to defend Saudi Arabia in all circumstances, & letting Saudi Arabia enrich its own uranium (even for a civilian program under the supervision of the IAEA) sounds risky. It seems Palestinians will also be sacrificed in the normalization process, not that the Saudis ever really cared.

    OTOH, a security pact w/ the US could jeopardize Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement w/ Iran & complicate its partnership w/ China. China has already signed an MOU w/ SA to develop civilian nuclear power in the country, does not include uranium enrichment, though. The US nuclear power industry has been atrophying due to lack of construction, in any case. As a condition for selling F-35s (if the US is willing to sell), the US will likely ask SA to rip out all of the telecom infrastructure built by Huawei & ZTE, in the name of information security. The US has tried to use this leverage on the UAE & failed, the UAE went w/ French Rafales, instead.

    The Biden Administration seems to be very enthusiastic to facilitate/guarantee a Saudi-Israeli normalization, to bolster regional united front against Iran, & try to peel Saudi Arabia away from Chinese influence. However, even if the US gives what SA asks, MBS will likely continue to pursue independent regional & global policies, maintain its tightening economic/technological partnership w/ China, & act selfishly when it comes to oil production. After all, the US & SA are now competitors on the hydrocarbon market.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 7, 2023 at 12:35 am

    @Anoniminous: China will not, but Gabuev’s point is that even in this hypothetical scenario Putin will not likely feel compelled to end his invasion of Ukraine. Putin is not looking for an off ramp.

  22. 22.

    Lyrebird

    August 7, 2023 at 1:02 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Putin is not looking for an off ramp.

    I follow you there 100%.  He is not looking for an off ramp, he is pushng the “Victory” button on his world domination elevator over and over like a madman and not accepting that the elevator is broken.

    IIRC @Gin & Tonic: (hi!) and others here caution that Putler is not irrational.  I believe them bc of their expertise, but I do not know how to get my head around someone choosing a brutal genocide over just going along for many more years enjoying being rich and powerful beyond imagining and NOT causing hundreds of thousands of needless deaths.

    FWIW, count me in on Team “Glad PRC Went To Jeddah At All”.  Also glad the US diplomats stepped up to make nice complimentary noises.  The war is an atrocity and a humanitarian catastrophe, and I don’t think anyone has an answer on how it really will end, but I will take any positive movement as good news.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 7, 2023 at 1:23 am

    @Lyrebird: Putin probably thinks that the Russian defenses are holding against the best that Ukraine/NATO is throwing against it. He does not care about the Russian (ethnic Russian or not) lives & equipment being consumed, the costs of the invasion & occupation, & the ongoing damage to the Russian economy.

    He is rational in the sense that he cares about self-preservation, & will not take actions that jeopardize his life or his hold on power [in the short term]. If the invasion ends on anything but terms very favorable to Russia, Putin probably calculates that his days would be numbered, & he is probably not wrong. His calculations won’t change unless something changes dramatically on the battlefield.

    Effective Ukrainian blockade of Russian & Crimean ports, as well as isolating Crimea, could be development toward such direction.

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    August 7, 2023 at 1:40 am

     

    @YY_Sima Qian: That is a very complicated way to achieve the forms of peaceful relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and it wouldn’t neccesarily achieve the true substance.

    I think the U.S. can only help up to a point. A true peace can only be achieved when Israel and Saudi Arabia decide it’s in their own enlightened self interests. For that they need clarity, and it seems like the US is just muddying the water.

    Saudi Arabia has not recognized Israel since that country’s founding in 1948. Why would the US spend diplomatic capital on this question right now? It’s not like the year 2024 is some transient window of opportunity. And there are a lot of problems in that neighborhood that a peace treaty between the Saudis and Israelis would do nothing to solve.

    Plus, Israel is in an unstable political state now, and will likely remain so until the governing coalition either collapses or is termed out in 2027. If the government can last 4 more years, they’ll be lucky if they still have formal relations with Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco, and if relations with Jordan and Egypt are only in the freezer.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 7, 2023 at 2:10 am

    @Geminid: I agree entirely, but I think the US is motivated by geopolitical rivalry vis-a-vis Iran & Great Power Competition vis-a-vis China. The Biden Administration itself has largely kept quiet, but the “Blobby” commentaries I have read include:”Need to sure up ‘integrated deterrence’ against Iran, can’t let China be the only peacemaker in the region, need to show the US is still relevant, can’t lose Saudi Arabia to China, etc.”

    The US shouldn’t make the concessions demanded by SA to facilitate the deal. However, it is striking how much US foreign policy around the world has to lean on security pacts, deployments of the US military, & weapons sales, & for how long this has been the case.

  26. 26.

    Andrya

    August 7, 2023 at 2:42 am

    @Lyrebird:   I don’t know if this should be considered rational or irrational, but I think there is another factor at play here:  awareness of mortality.  putin is 70 years old.  Anyone that old is aware that most of their life is behind them, and that death within the next 10 to 15 years is overwhelmingly probable.  An atheist who has led an ethical life, or a religious person, believing in a life to come and having tried also to lead an ethical life, may find that sufficient sustenance to face death with equanimity.  (Ann Druyan, widow of militant atheist Carl Sagan, has said that Sagan faced his death with “unflinching courage”.)

    What if you’ve been a violent gangster, with no ethics at all, who may or may not believe the Russian Orthodox faith, and you sense that death is approaching?  I believe there will be psychological pressure to find a way to think that you “live on” in some existential sense.  I think putin’s attempts to be the new “Peter the Great” and conquer vast territory for russia is a way to avoid facing the fact that he is going to die within 10-20 years.  Plus, putin is a coward, given the way he sits at the end of a long table, far removed from those he is meeting with.

    And by the way, I am in my early 70s, in writing about the death awareness that goes with that age group, I speak from experience.

  27. 27.

    Cathie from Canada

    August 7, 2023 at 3:39 am

    Twitter is gradually declining but I don’t think there a good replacement for it yet. I still use twitter because tweets are the only social media posts that I can use in blog posts.  The other sites (Mastadon, Post, Spoutible) don’t have an Embed function. Instagram does but its posts are mainly visual so they aren’t very useful on my blog. I am hopeful that Threads will offer this, but for now I can’t use it on my laptop which is where I write my blog posts.

    And Bluesky still hasn’t let me join.

  28. 28.

    Hangö Kex

    August 7, 2023 at 4:30 am

    I believe Putin is rational when looked from his point of view. The trouble is that point of view being vastly different than ours: the foundation is the general Russian worldview, vastly different from ours*, then, among other things, there is his KGB background and special position as a long-time autocrat.

    * an idea of this can be had from the lecture of Martti J. Kari (a link to which on Youtube was posted the other day); Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West by Kier Giles (among others) paints a similar picture

  29. 29.

    Ian R

    August 7, 2023 at 5:31 am

    My objections to Twitter aren’t to its use as a source (as Adam rightly points out, there aren’t really any good alternatives in that space), but to depending on it for embeds. Twitter these days is sufficiently undependable that screenshots seem like the way to go — all the content, none of the breaking every post in the archive when Musk finally succeeds in killing it.

  30. 30.

    Bill Arnold

    August 7, 2023 at 12:09 pm

    @Ian R:

    Twitter these days is sufficiently undependable that screenshots seem like the way to go — all the content, none of the breaking every post in the archive when Musk finally succeeds in killing it.

    While true, the breakage is only partial; the text in embeds still shows.
    AL in the COVID posts sometimes includes both an image and a link. Adam includes threadreader links and text/images copied from them. (TBH not sure how well insulated threadreader is from twitter breakage; i.e. do they copy the content?)

Comments are closed.

Primary Sidebar

Image by HinTN (5/22/25)

Recent Comments

  • eclare on Thursday Evening Open Thread (May 23, 2025 @ 12:29am)
  • Gloria DryGarden on Thursday Evening Open Thread (May 23, 2025 @ 12:10am)
  • prostratedragon on Thursday Evening Open Thread (May 23, 2025 @ 12:09am)
  • frosty on Thursday Evening Open Thread (May 22, 2025 @ 11:59pm)
  • Mr. Bemused Senior on Thursday Evening Open Thread (May 22, 2025 @ 11:58pm)

PA Supreme Court At Risk

Donate

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
War in Ukraine
Donate to Razom for Ukraine

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Meetups

Upcoming Ohio Meetup May 17
5/11 Post about the May 17 Ohio Meetup

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)
Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Hands Off! – Denver, San Diego & Austin

Social Media

Balloon Juice
WaterGirl
TaMara
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
DougJ NYT Pitchbot
mistermix

Keeping Track

Legal Challenges (Lawfare)
Republicans Fleeing Town Halls (TPM)
21 Letters (to Borrow or Steal)
Search Donations from a Brand

PA Supreme Court At Risk

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2025 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc

Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!

Email sent!