(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Fourth nationwide air raid alarm as MiG-31K jets take off in Russia. Think of mothers kissing their children goodnight, not knowing what this night will bring them. pic.twitter.com/mh7LsZkzCm
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 17, 2023
Fortunately, things have quieted down over the past two hours or so:
Here is President Zelensyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are building the arsenal of the free world together – address by the President of Ukraine
17 August 2023 – 22:58
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief report on this day.
First. The frontline. I started the day with a conference call with the military, intelligence, and government officials. The situation on the frontline. Defense of positions, advancement – our offensive actions. Supplies for the warriors. We are actively shaping the content of new defense packages from our partners. More news to come.
Second. Today I would like to highlight our cooperation with Germany. Step by step, our agreements with Mr. Chancellor Scholz are being implemented. Two new IRIS-T launching stations have been delivered to Ukraine. This is a powerful and much-needed air defense system. Thank you, Germany, for your help in protecting us from Russian terror!
Third. Traditionally, in St. Sophia of Kyiv, I accepted credentials from new ambassadors who arrived in Ukraine. Germany, Indonesia, Sweden, Chile, Colombia, Peru. Of course, I spoke with all the new ambassadors today.
Fourth. Several substantive meetings with the government. A separate meeting with Prime Minister Shmyhal. Logistics for Ukraine, for our manufacturers. Export issues. Additional support for our defense. Strengthening Ukraine together with our neighbors in the European Union.
Then, an expanded meeting with the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Strategic Industries, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the relevant deputy heads of the Office. We discussed the Defense Industries Forum. We are planning this event for the autumn. It will be the first time such a large-scale event will be held at the state level. Ukrainian and foreign arms manufacturers. Our power. The power of our partners. The entire world, which is interested in ensuring that international law and humanity have an appropriate arsenal of defense against any terror… The world can be united by this format of cooperation as well.
We plan the forum to be the first track record of our defense industry. To demonstrate what we already know how to produce. To consider what we can add to our capabilities, in particular through the creation of new production facilities in Ukraine, through localization with partners. And, of course, we have to give a new security impetus to everyone in the world who values their statehood and freedom as much as we do. Nations have the right to defense. We are building the arsenal of the free world together.
The fifth one for today. As always. I am grateful to all those who are fighting for Ukraine and working for its defense. Thank you to each and every one! I would like to particularly mention the warriors of the 117th separate mechanized brigade. Orikhiv direction. Thank you for your strength, warriors!
There is much to be grateful for to the special forces who defend the northern regions of our country. Junior Sergeant Kyrylo Melnyk and Captain Artem Chastikov – thank you guys!
The 3rd operational brigade of the National Guard, the 66th separate howitzer artillery division of the 406th brigade and the 3rd artillery division of the 44th brigade. Thank you all, warriors, for your accuracy and ability to destroy the occupiers. And it is once again an honor for me to recognize the warriors of the 36th separate marine brigade. Thank you!
Glory to all our heroes!
And a few other things.
Today, by my decree, the NSDC’s decision on the results of the inspection of military commissars and the work of recruitment centers in general has been put into effect. The leadership will be completely replaced. Warriors who have actually been in combat, who really understand how and who should be selected for our defense and security forces – these are the warriors who will manage the work of territorial recruitment centers. This system needs dignity. This system needs rationality. This system needs the ability to provide the frontline with people who can reinforce our defense.
In every combat brigade I visited this week – 16 in total – warriors talked about problems with recruitment. These problems begin with the way military enlistment offices work. Their work must change. And it will. Thanks to combat officers.
I have just signed one of the key laws that Ukraine needs to start negotiations with the European Union on our country’s accession. Negotiations are to start this year. The law guarantees a transparent, professional and fair selection of judges of the Constitutional Court. Our country is one step closer to joining the European Union.
Glory to Ukraine!
Interestingly, The Kyiv Independent has just published a very, very deep dive investigation into the EU’s inability to ramp up its defense manufacturing sector. Here are some excerpts:
Key findings:
- Over a year into Russia’s full-scale war, neither Ukraine nor the EU has implemented any solid plans for ammunition production ramp-up
- EU member states’ governments hardly sign any long-term contracts with producers, while the “wait-and-see” arms industry is reluctant to take financial risks
- Ukraine’s arms makers also complain about a lack of state support yet scale up production under existing capacities anyway
- Ukraine uses from 3-10 times (depending on the intensity of fighting) less ammunition than Russia does, but its ammunition expenditure is still several times higher than Europe’s production rates
- National protectionism of member states and the bureaucracy of the EU prevented rapid decision-making to tackle ammunition shortages
- The lack of unified ammunition types in the EU forces soldiers on the front line to alter their ammunition and adapt weapons, which can delay or jeopardize operations
As Ukraine was throwing all its forces into counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson oblasts last fall, soldiers defending the eastern front struggled with ammunition shortages.
When long-anticipated military aid arrived at one brigade stationed in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas front, the soldiers were over the moon. But disappointment soon followed when they realized that the supplied ammunition was useless: The Finnish 120mm mortar bombs wouldn’t fit into the Italian Mod. 63 mortar, despite them being of the same caliber.
Taras, the commander of the brigade’s mortar battery, was tasked to find a way out of the situation. Ten people used grinders to manually trim all eight tail fins on each mortar bomb to fit the Italian mortar. There were 400 bombs to trim.
“My infantry was relying on me. At the time when we received these bombs, we had nothing else from the brigade artillery left,” said Taras, who doesn’t reveal his full name due to fear of retaliation for publicly complaining about the supplies.
Taras’s story points to two major issues the Ukrainian military has been facing.
One is the lack of consistency of arms across the European Union. Ammunition from various producers of the same caliber differs to the extent that soldiers call it a “zoo” for how messy it is.
Since Ukraine gets arms from various countries and suppliers, it creates ammunition chaos and affects the performance of the military: Soldiers have to make time to weigh incoming munitions and manually grind them to fit their launchers, which can get in the way of military missions.
The second problem is a shortage of ammunition on the front lines. Austerity forces Ukraine to save up munitions while defending or building up for an attack by giving soldiers less than usual, multiple high-level sources close to Ukraine’s military leadership told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive started later than planned due to weapons supply delays, President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN on July 5.
Russia is steps ahead of Ukraine in ammunition capacities. According to Ukrainian military and government sources, Russia can fire up to 10 times as much ammunition as Ukraine does during high-intensity fighting. On average, Russia fires 60,000 rounds of ammunition at Ukraine a day, whereas Ukraine fires 20,000, according to Ukrainian officials’ public comments and off-the-record conversations with them.
While Russia makes use of its large stock of ammunition, both Ukraine and the EU have so far failed to scale up ammunition production to meet battlefield demands.
The Kyiv Independent and its partners spoke with dozens of insiders, arms producers, diplomats, the Ukrainian government and military sources, and soldiers on the front line.
This cross-border investigation found that national protectionism, misjudgment, and indecisiveness among EU countries have obstructed the bloc from finding a swift and collective approach to tackling ammunition shortages which had a direct impact on Ukraine’s performance on the battlefield. Both governments and their defense industries have proved reluctant to take risks investing in arms production, including jointly with Ukraine.
Ukraine’s own defense industry started producing ammunition only about two months into Russia’s full-scale war.
And it faces similar problems to those of the EU: it’s too slow, the government and the industry blame each other for failing to take the lead in scaling up production, and a strategy for future ammunition programs is still a work in progress.
While Ukraine and the West fail to produce more, Russia is trying to disrupt Ukraine’s production and destroy what it already has in stock by targeting ammunition depots.
The inability of officials, both domestically and internationally, to ensure Ukraine has enough arms and ammunition leaves the soldiers on the ground with an impossible task: meeting the world’s high expectations of Ukraine’s counteroffensive without the means to do so.
Caught by surpriseThe fact that ammunition would eventually run out in the EU warehouses has been self-evident to anyone paying attention from day one of the full-scale invasion, according to officials and experts the Kyiv Independent spoke to.
Ukraine, a country that inherited most of its arms from the Soviet Union, had ammunition of calibers most NATO countries didn’t have. Some Eastern European countries had Soviet-style munition but in limited volumes.
Ukraine’s own stocks were only enough for up to about a month of active fighting, according to multiple top-level sources in Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and Armed Forces. They claim to have informed Western allies about the state of things as early as day one of the full-scale invasion.
Once comprehensive, Ukraine’s stocks had dried up due to a series of explosions in ammunition depots between 2014 to 2018 in Ukraine, as well as the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, countries Ukraine bought Soviet-style ammunition from. The Czech government has openly blamed the explosions on Russia. Ukraine’s State Security Service and Prosecutor General’s Office have investigated the blasts in Ukraine in connection with sabotage, murder, terrorism, and military service negligence. None of the investigations have resulted in convictions yet.
In Ukraine alone, around 210,000 tons of ammunition were destroyed in the attacks – that’s three times as much as the country had used defending itself against Russia’s war in the Donbas and on military training combined in 2014-2018, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank. It’s unclear whether any of the lost ammunition was replenished, or how much was rescued.
While waiting for the American equipment, in 2018, Ukraine ordered 152mm shells from a Ukrainian private company Rubin. It delivered low-quality products, which weren’t approved by the Defense Ministry. These were Ukraine’s only attempts to launch mass production of ammunition before the 2022 invasion.
So when Russia started its all-out war, Ukraine didn’t have reliable ammunition production pipelines and had little left in stock.
Meanwhile, the closest possible sources of ammunition – the EU and the UK – were also short on it.
After years of defense budget cuts and a strategy of keeping ammunition stocks low ever since the Cold War, the EU had little to offer.
According to Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO military committee, he told member states’ foreign ministers in mid-March 2022: “We deliver from half-empty warehouses. You have to refill it very quickly.”
“NATO won’t be able to provide Ukraine with lasting support if the war goes on for long,” he recalled saying back then.
Officials and experts in the United Kingdom and Germany later admitted that their own countries only had enough ammunition to last for mere days of high-intensity fighting.
Reluctant to start helpingThe West did not rush to start sending arms to Ukraine to help repel Russian aggression. It took days for politicians to decide and weeks to deliver the first batches of Soviet-style military aid to Ukraine, according to diplomats and military sources.
There were a few reasons for the delays.
One was the fear that Ukraine would quickly fall and the arms and ammunition provided by the West would end up in Russian hands, said two high-level Ukrainian diplomatic sources.
Additionally, they said, the EU was scared that Russia would see Europe as a party to the conflict.
“That’s why they didn’t want to help us for a very long time, despite the fact that Russia immediately accused the West of being a party to the war,” according to another source close to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.
The EU defense industry proved to be more farsighted than politicians.
Nexter, a French munitions company, claims to have bought a few hundred tons of gunpowder a few days after the full-scale Russian invasion.
“We were in constant talks with the French government, especially with its Defense Ministry, which was well aware that the need for ammunition would increase,” said Gabriel Massoni, a spokesperson for Nexter.
According to NAMMO, a Norwegian-Finnish munitions company, it bought extra raw materials days after the invasion. They also claim to have alerted authorities how difficult scaling up production quickly would be, given supply chain issues caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The company got its first ammunition production contract only about a year later.
Camille Grand, who served as NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment until November 2022, said: “We were under the impression that the war would not last long.”
Taking a lifetime to actEven upon realizing the scale of ammunition shortages, the leadership of the EU and its member states proved to be slow in tackling them.
At the first Ramstein summit, a Ukraine-focused meeting of allied countries at an air base in Germany, on April 26, 2022, the allies decided to give the first big batch of weapons to Ukraine.
“It was very tough before the Ramstein talks, and only after did it start moving at least in some direction, and we started receiving the first pieces of (U.S.-made and provided) M777 and M119 howitzers, which came in together with ammunition,” a Ukrainian military source said.
However, it is not known whether the looming ammunition shortage was addressed at the summit.
The first notable attempt to find a solution came two days later, at NATO’s semi-annual meeting of national armaments directors. There, some member states, for the first time, aired concerns that ammunition stocks could run out, according to Grand, a former top NATO official.
Around that time, it finally became clear to Western leaders that modern warfare still requires high volumes of ammunition despite advances in military technology, according to a source close to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. “That was a shock to them,” he said.
Much, much, much more at the link!
But wait, there’s video:
The US’s defense manufacturing sector mirrors many of the problems that The Kyiv Independent has identified in its reporting into the EU’s defense manufacturing sector.
There is some good defense manufacturing and logistics news:
Germany updated the list of Delivered military support to Ukraine:
– 2 IRIS-T SLS launchers
– 4,539 rounds 155mm smoke ammunition
– 18 ground surveillance radars GO12
– 4 truck tractor trains 8×8 HX81 and 4 semi-trailers
– 8 load-handling trucks 15thttps://t.co/HudvW2crKM pic.twitter.com/otsslB5Um3— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 17, 2023
The US has approved Denmark and Holland sending F-16s to Ukraine once training is completed. Reuters has the details:
WASHINGTON, Aug 17 (Reuters) – The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against Russian invaders as soon as pilot training is completed, a U.S. official said on Thursday.
Ukraine has actively sought the U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russian air superiority.
Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval of transfer requests for F-16s to go to Ukraine when the pilots are trained, the official said.
Denmark and the Netherlands had recently asked for those assurances. The U.S. must approve the transfer of the military jets from its allies to Ukraine.
A coalition of 11 countries was due to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets this month in Denmark. Denmark’s acting Defense Minister Troels Poulsen said in July that the country hoped to see “results” from the training in early 2024.
NATO members Denmark and the Netherlands have been leading international efforts to train pilots as well as support staff, maintain aircraft and ultimately enable Ukraine to obtain F-16s for use in its war with Russia.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent letters to his Danish and Dutch counterparts assuring them that the requests would be approved, the U.S. official said.
“I am writing to express the United States’ full support for both the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine and for the training of Ukrainian pilots by qualified F-16 instructors,” Blinken said in a letter to the two officials, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.
Blinken said, “It remains critical that Ukraine is able to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression and violation of its sovereignty.”
There is one outstanding problem here: NO TRAINING PROGRAM HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED!!!
The Kyiv Independent explains why:
Ukraine will not be able to defend its airspace with U.S. F-16 fighter jets by the coming fall or winter, spokesperson for the Air Force Yurii Ihnat said on Aug. 16.
“It is already obvious that we will not be able to defend Ukraine with F-16s this fall and winter,” Ihnat said.
During the Vilnius NATO summit in July, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced the formation of a coalition to provide training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. The coalition is made up of 11 NATO member states. The program was set to start in Denmark in August, with plans for establishing a training center in Romania as well.
However, the forthcoming F-16 training has been marked by uncertainties. While the Biden administration has approved the training, it cannot give final authorization until it receives a completed training plan from European leaders.
It’s also still unclear which specific countries will be supplying the F-16 jets to the Ukrainian Air Force. Gaining fluency in the English language presents another challenge for Ukrainian pilots.
“Significant hopes were pinned on this aircraft, anticipating its integration into the air defense system and its ability to shield us from Russia’s missile and drone terrorism,” Ihnat said.
Nonetheless, Ihnat said that question of training Ukrainian pilots and engineers had “moved forward.”
“In the near future, our pilots will receive training within the member countries of the aviation coalition,” Ihnat said.
No training program, no F-16s. Again, one more time, this is the reason that even if the US was not prepared to provide or allow F-16s to be provided to Ukraine until late summer or early fall of 2023, if a training program had been started a year ago, then the Ukrainians would be ready to fly them on receipt.
The other reason to have adopted a more aggressive timeline is this:
“Rep. DON BACON…a staunch Ukraine supporter…wants to give Kyiv more military aid but only if the final deal includes a guarantee [of ATACMS]. Without that assurance, he sees no point in further depleting US stocks and spending more money to keep Ukraine at a fighting stalemate” https://t.co/wPT9OPaoX2
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 17, 2023
We’re now moving into Congressional Republicans saying “what’s the point?” I guarantee that by the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, the GOP position will be to abandon Ukraine to its fate. There will be a few holdouts, mostly GOP senators not up for reelection. But the base of the party, Fox News as well as its imitators, the majority of Republicans running for the House and the GOP nominee, which will be Trump, will all adopt this position. And regardless of what anyone here might hope for or wish to happen, all of this is not only possible, but plausible.
One of the keys at developing effective strategies is to be able to identify that time is a key risk and have appropriate ways and means to mitigate and manage that risk. Assuming that you have more time than you do – as in President Biden will be reelected and the Democrats will have majorities in both chambers of Congress in 2025 – so that there will be time to deal with this in the future is strategic malpractice.
Fighting for each and every life.
Defying death.🎥47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/QTKDKmGJto
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 17, 2023
Ukrainian Army Colonel Peter Chernyk provides this interesting analysis about the challenges that the Ukrainian military is trying to overcome in their operations in southern Ukraine.
In the information space, one of the totems of the last week is discussions about certain successes of the units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the southern bridgehead. At the same time, some participants in the discussions will see that this success is not developing as fast as we would like.
Expert opinion on this issue, the correspondents of the ArmyInform inquired about the military analyst of Colonel Peter Chernyk.
According to him, the main problem of moderate pace of advance of Ukrainian units in this operational direction is that troops have to overcome the classic tri-echelon line of defense.
— What is it? The classic three-chelon line of defense sees the existence of a so-called supply line. These are minefields that can reach up to several kilometers wide, — says Peter Chernyk. — It should be understood that the Russians are very good in this part: they just have a giant number of anti-tank mines. For example, TM-62 — their stocks in rf are calculated in millions. And a universal mine barrier can scatter mines such as PFM, abundantly sowing the terrain. One «petal» — is already a very dangerous anti-personnel mine. And the mine barrier scatters them 11 thousand for one volley. They have something to change. Up to 5 mines per square meter can now be in the supply area.
Continuing the topic, he says that the second echelon of enemy defense — main line. Where artillery, equipment, personnel are concentrated. The third line — is the rear points of preservation of material means and spare positions. According to Peter Chernik, in order for the Defense Forces units to truly develop success, it is mandatory to create a phenomenon called «prolom», or engineering passes through enemy minefields.
— Is this possible? Probably because we have a pretty good technique. These are American M-58 cars. They can fire a combat « rope» up to 90 meters. In this rope for each meter running is 7.5 kilograms of C-4 explosives. And when it all explodes, such a passage is made 6 meters wide, where the tank passes fully. And so step by step at one point you can make such a move. But it’s a big car. There are also other cars. Based on the tank «Leopard-2». The Germans also provided them to us. They have special «tralas », which cause mines to explode, or dumps that these mines drop in different directions and they remain in this position. These are all convenient targets, especially for enemy artillery. Therefore, it is necessary to destroy their artillery, — he notes.
At the same time, according to Peter Chernyk, the Defense Forces of Ukraine in terms of the destruction of enemy artillery have some obvious successes.
In a year and a half of the war, the average loss of Russians from artillery in a month was within 200 guns. Starting in May — outside 550 units, June — record: 688 barrels and installations. July did not reach the record — a total of 577 artillery barrels.
— I have no doubt that in August we will again show a very solid result, — says Peter Chernik. — With an average of 200 guns, we are almost three times ahead of the extermination rate. The Russian military-industrial complex can remove old Soviet junk from warehouses and repair and put it in the old Soviet junk, in fact, a lot of it. In warehouses in the rf it is outside 10,000. But the ratio is still within 150 guns in our favor. I must note that the full-time artillery brigade — is within 72 barrels.
The military expert emphasizes that we are ahead of their ability to deliver artillery to Ukraine in terms of destruction almost twice. And this is a very serious indicator, because sooner or later the breaking point will happen. And a number of faults or one large will be made, which will allow to collapse the entire bridgehead and perform classic maneuvers to reach the enemy and enter him in the rear.
And there’s video too!
Robotyne:
Russian "Alligator" meets its match near Robotyne, along Zaporizhzhia axis. pic.twitter.com/AvI78xf3C7
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 17, 2023
🇺🇦47th Mechanized has another Russian Kamov Ka-52 downed pic.twitter.com/WVern2p6TE
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 17, 2023
And Bakhmut:
Two Russian Ka-52 helis were taken down this morning, one in Zaporizhzhia front shot down by the 47th Brigade, and another one a bit earlier in the Bakhmut front.
Source: https://t.co/s5ETGvfm8J pic.twitter.com/ig9pjzGjc9
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 17, 2023
From Ukrainika Pravda:
Soldiers of a separate mechanized brigade shot down an enemy Ka-52 helicopter in the Zaporizhia region on the morning of August 17 − so this morning the defenders of Ukraine destroyed two Russian “alligators”.
Literally 47 OMBr: “The morning of the soldiers of the 47th separate mechanized brigade began with the destruction of the Russian Ka-52 helicopter in the Robine area, which is on Zaporizhia”.
Details: The enemy “alligator” noticed a fire group of the anti-aircraft missile-artillery division around 07:40 am. The helicopter was knocked down in one start from the MANPADS.
It is reported that on the account of fighters of the 47th brigade – is already the 8th “forever landed Ka-52”, the cost of which reaches $16 million.
Background:
- Earlier, the commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces Mykola Oleshchuk said that the defenders of Ukraine destroyed an enemy Ka-52 strike helicopter in Bakhmutsk direction on the morning of August 17.
Soledar:
JDAM strike on Russian headquarters in Soledad. Video by the 30th brigade. https://t.co/aATRTmcrPz pic.twitter.com/EjzIUDbOTP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 17, 2023
I’m pretty sure Soledad is a typo for Soledar.
Dmitri has a translation of a Russian colonel’s analysis of the difference between the cluster munitions Russia has been using and the ones Ukraine is now using:
Interesting, a bit long, post here from Russian Colonel Shuvalov discussing the effect of the Ukrainian cluster munitions
and how the Russian equivalents are not nearly as good if exist at all, showing how Shoygu's threats are empty.
(source: https://t.co/Bburalklwy):"And again… pic.twitter.com/VicMjWwC1r
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 17, 2023
Interesting, a bit long, post here from Russian Colonel Shuvalov discussing the effect of the Ukrainian cluster munitions
and how the Russian equivalents are not nearly as good if exist at all, showing how Shoygu’s threats are empty.
(source: https://t.me/shouvalov/45):“And again about cluster munitions. It’s hard for me to understand why we need to manipulate statistics if the response we’re getting for showing off results in collossal, real difficulites.
I already wrote about cluster munitions before – https://t.me/shouvalov/20.
Basically, nothing has changed, but a lot needs to be added. Information, now in full measure, reached the authorities that everything was not as it seemed in the initial reports. It is impossible not to take into account the factor of modern Western cluster munitions – they shamelessly mow down both fighters at the front (not only at the front) and civilian infrastructure in the rear.
Civil infrastructure is a separate topic. Recently, there was an arrival in Tokmak, which terribly slashed trucks and drivers. The Defense Ministry decided not to focus on this, because there was a risk of reciprocal publication of data from the enemy with arguments that the civilian targets were not quite simple and not very civilian.
But there were comrades in the camp of military correspondents who unleashed their anger towards the vile NATO members on the heads of readers, and attached videos as proof. This is something the enemy might not have had. And now the enemy can quite boldly show that the goals were legal from a military point of view. And all by our hands…
We had to throw all our efforts into blocking the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine: to declare that we would not use such munitions, to tear apart the Europeans, who have cluster munitions banned. There was a chance. But they played us, we happily fell for it and declared that we had these clusters munitions, whole landfills of them, not just stockpiles.
Yes, we have many. You can search for photos. For the most part, it’s an illiquid asset killed by time, the rest – is morally and technically obsolete. And things are not very good with carriers either.
Now you can’t roll back the situation, and when you are caught being weak, it’s silly to try and scare them. The General Staff already understands this, but they cannot bring the situation even higher, there is no solution. The guys on the front line are taking the beating, and it’s not easy at all. In the context of problems with medicine, wounds from cluster munitions often result in death, and this is a very painful and terrible death. The enemy has learned (yes, imagine, they are also learning!) to cut off the path of reinforcements or withdrawal of forces with artillery, and trenches do not save from cluster munitions. You can’t save yourself with a bandage or a tourniquet, after being hit with cluster munitions you need solid medical care, if you managed to survive.
In the trenches, a terrible mess is formed from the living and the dying, who are sometimes completely impossible to help.
In such cases, the enemy methodically waits for those of our forces that rush to help their comrades. I saw all this in Chechnya, when a sniper left a wounded man to pull other guys to him. This happened in single occasions, but with cluster munitions, everything is the same, but scaled tens and hundreds of times. We need counter-battery fire, but it is not there. We need a lot of things, but first of all, need to finally admit the problem exists and start solving it, and not throw around the words like “we’re going to smash you!”.
It is not some colonel in a hospital bed that is yelling about the cluster munitioins – the voices of hundreds of guys dying in terrible agony in the trenches and the widows of hundreds killed by them in just these couple of weeks are shouting to you about these problems. And I specifically do not specify whether there are really hundreds, or already thousands – we will not please the enemy with statistics.
The army needs a solution. The cluster situation is terrible, and worst of all, we try to silence the problem when we need a solution. And this is already beyond the capabilities of individual generals and commanders. We made threats with words, now let’s get down to business.”
The Russians have gone with something akin to an old fashioned leaflet drop:
Some translation:
"Do not exchange your life for American values."
"The West has turned Ukraine into a testing ground for its weapons."
""Merchant of Ukrainian lives"
And then it lists instructions on how to surrender
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 17, 2023
The cost:
The childhoods of millions of Ukrainian children ended on February 24, 2022. We are fighting – and will win – this war to return smiles to our children’s faces. We will make sure they have a home, a childhood, and a future.
Art by @ShapovalYura pic.twitter.com/KaF5nIMXGa
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 17, 2023
The Kyiv Independent brings us details of even more of the costs of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion on Ukraine’s children:
Russia has deported another 450 children from areas of Ukraine under Russian occupation, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 17.
According to the center, 50 Ukrainian high school students were sent to Yaroslavl, a city about 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow. The center believes that once there, Russian teachers will try to convince the students to continue their higher education at Yaroslavl State University.
Another 200 children from occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast, 150 children from Kherson Oblast, and 50 children from Zaporizhzhia Oblast were sent to summer camps in Krasnodar region.
Ukrainian children are taught to believe Russian propaganda in these camps and attend activities like Russian patriotic concerts. At the end of the camp, Ukrainian children are often not returned home.
The conditions in Russian hotels, summer camps, and recreation centers for Ukrainian children are frequently poor, according to a report by a coalition of Ukrainian NGOs that documents Russia’s war crimes.
A February 2023 study by the Yale School of Public Health shows that Moscow has established a whole “network of re-education and adoption facilities” in Russia and occupied Crimea.
More than 19,500 children have been identified by the Ukrainian government as having been deported. Only 385 of them have been returned to Ukraine.
Much more at the link!
Here is there video reporting:
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
New episode 🥰🦋✌🏻https://t.co/3he5ZdED7L
(Enable ENG subtitles) pic.twitter.com/O4mJKM6CPB— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 17, 2023
That’s right, there’s a new episode of Patron’s cartoon!
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Таке в архівах знайшов! Біжу побажати вам гарного і мирного дня🤗❤️
Here is the machine translation of the caption:
I found this in the archives! I want to wish you a good and peaceful day 🤗❤️
Open thread!
Sparkedcat
Thank-you for these updates. I continue to believe that a Ukrainian breakout is just around the corner. Slava Ukraini!
karen marie
Well, it all sounds pretty terrible. I don’t see how any of this gets better before it gets a whole fuck of a lot worse for a long time.
Slava Ukraini
YY_Sima Qian
The program of deporting children is utterly despicable, & I think the most obvious evidence of Putin’s genocidal intent.
jackmac
WaPo reports tonight that U.S. Intelligence claims Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fall short of a top priority — taking Melitopol as part of strategy reclaim Crimea. Some of the reasoning is effective Russian mining that has slowed down Ukrainian advances.
What say you Adam?
Thanks, as always for your reporting.
Yarrow
Putin is a monster. I don’t know what else to say.
Thanks, Adam. I don’t know how you do this day after day.
Chris
It’s been ridiculously obvious for a year and a half that Republicans turning against aid to Ukraine was a matter of when not if and that that made it critical to send absolutely maximal support possible to Ukraine while we still could.
Welp.
Adam L Silverman
@jackmac: The Ukrainians have a very tough fight and they are undertaking it in conditions that the US would never ever consider fighting. The Ukrainians are doing this because they have no choice. It is literally fight or die. Fighting may still lead to death, but it is better than just giving in and giving up. While I’ve not seen the WaPo reporting and I have no idea what the actual intel assessment says, I can tell you that what US intelligence, especially military intel, specializes in is counting things. Planes, trucks, tanks, troops, amounts of munitions, etc. If those are the metrics being used, then what you’re stating WaPo is reporting shouldn’t be surprising. Because the one thing that the US intelligence community is NOT good at is what I do, which is provide broad and deep context. I’ve got two different measures of resilience. And one of them is not used by anyone in the Intel community or anywhere else within the US nat-sec enterprise because it is my measure, I developed it as part of a larger framework and I am the only one who has ever and most likely will ever use it. And that measure of resilience tells me that like everything else we’ve seen for the past year, the Ukrainians are very likely to outperform expectations.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: It has to be done. That is sufficient reason and explanation.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: I understand all too well how that is. Thank you for doing it, even so.
Gwangung
@Adam L Silverman: May it be so.
japa21
As usual. thanks.
I am assuming the the election results will be as you wrote, though confidence does equal complacency. However, I do not tie that into what we should be doing for Ukraine. I feel we should be doing as much as we can as fast as we can. Damn the GOP, full speed ahead.
Well, let’s see, Kyiv was supposed to fall in 3 days, then a month, then it was going to a stalemate and it would be lucky if Ukraine recovered any ground…. Yeh, exceeding expectations has been a Ukrainian specialty.
People were expecting something like the Kharkiv breakout which was totally unrealistic, but with the breakthrough at Urozhaine, we may, at last see something similar, though at a slightly slower speed.
Any mattress news?
sdhays
@jackmac: I skimmed the report, and all I can say is that I don’t see the point of publishing this “classified” assessment at this time. It seems to help Russian morale and strengthens Putin.
It should have remained classified and pushed the administration to do more more quickly.
jackmac
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the comprehensive reply and, of course, your honest assessments and perspectives. From my layperson’s perspective, you are quite right that the U.S. would never fight this kind of war. We’d rely on overwhelming air power (the kind that, ironically, won’t be shared with Ukraine). I gain more out of your nightly reports than any other source on the war and admire your resilience in reporting on this God-awful conflict night after night. Thank you.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: It shipped.
Check your email please.
Adam L Silverman
@jackmac: @sdhays: @jackmac: I’ve now read the reporting. It is nothing that hasn’t been reported before going back to the Discord leaks in February 2023. Rob Lee is correct that the layered defenses the Russians have built in the south are going to be hard to breach. The anonymous US senior official who noted that Ukraine didn’t degrade the Russians while doing that is correct too. Of course it ignores the fact that we didn’t give the Ukrainians what they would have needed to have done that. We have told the Ukrainians to prosecute a war that we would never fight under the conditions that the Ukrainians have to fight under. Now we are complaining of their failure to do something that they couldn’t do because we refuse to give them the resources to do it despite them begging us for them. If Ukraine should lose this war, that loss was born in Washington, DC.
Adam L Silverman
@jackmac: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I am totes not surprised that the 31 (32?) NATO members have still not quite standardized weaponry (other than use of the metric system). I find it really ironic that not one conservative ever brings up the issue of the U.S. Military being totally on board with the metric system for (hmmm) 40-50 years now?
I think when this war is over, perhaps a commission should be established to debrief every intelligence agency and military branch to figure out how we fxxked up so badly in supplying Ukraine
Adam L Silverman
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
It is a simple answer: lack of will.
YY_Sima Qian
I have thought about whether Ukraine should halt the the offensives this summer, if there is low likelihood of taking Melitopol (whether any part of the US national security state should be leaking such assessment to the press is a separate issue, Tatarigami_UA has already published a similar assessment a few days ago that Adam has posted), to conserve its resources so that it can launch a stronger offensive next summer, so that the remaining NATO trained brigades can gel better in combined arms tactics (& perhaps retrained in the evolving Ukrainian way of war), more brigades can be stood up, a critical mass of weapons system & munitions can be acquired from the Western countries (they trickled in this year, forcing a delay in the start of the offensive, & continued to trickle in through the course of the offensive, that is no way to wage war), & the Ukrainian Air Force can receive some F-16s. All the while Ukraine can continue to attrit Russian logistics & C&C via accurate long range fires, & work to further isolate Crimea through their creative means.
Unfortunately, there are far too many reasons Ukraine can’t stop. It cannot allow Russia another year of abductions & ruthless exploitation in the occupied territories. Right now the Russian defenders are under heavy stress, as well, cannot give them any respite & allow them to regroup, cannot give them the time to repair & strengthen their defenses. The Russian MIC has much higher capacity to domestically produce weapons systems & munitions than Ukraine (even if they are obsolescent), so any pause would allow Russia to rebuild its numerical superiority, especially in artillery. Ukraine assess that they are attritting Russian artillery faster than the Russian Army can replace them, probably want to keep that going. A few dozen F-16s probably will not give Ukraine air superiority, either, in face of long range Russian SAMs as well as Russian fighters with long range AAMs & some AWAC support (even if the VKS has badly underperformed so far).
As long as the Ukrainian brigades are not badly chewed up in these operations, persistent but more limited attacks also provide lessons for the Ukrainian Army, so that it is better prepared for breaching defenses for next summer’s offensive. To be able to relatively quickly breach prepared defenses, & quickly exploit such breaches, Ukraine needs to attain decisive advantages in artillery/air as well as armor/men, at least locally. W/o them, it would be an attritional grind for any military in the world.
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
@Adam L Silverman: I usually stay out of these threads because I have no expertise on any relevant topic, but one thing that comes up over and over has been nagging at me.
You have said repeatedly and forcefully that we ought to take “Never again” seriously, which would mean trying to stop genocides in the making and punishing their perpetrators. What would it look like, as a matter of foreign and military policy, if we (U.S. and allies) actually did that? As to Ukraine, I can’t think of anything that would help much short of treating Ukraine as a de facto member of NATO entitled to the full benefits of Article 5. As to the rest of the world, I can’t even begin to imagine how it would work.
Genocide is a relatively new word, but what it describes is as old as recorded history. Many past wars, both religious and secular, were genocidal in purpose and intent, and if they failed to achieve actual genocide it was usually only for lack of means. Today, because advances in communications and technology have allowed us to see “everything everywhere all at once,” it feels as if there’s more genocide going on than ever before, but that’s probably an illusion. That perception also makes it easy for us to think the problem of stopping genocide is insoluble and just give up trying.
Obviously, I have no suggestions what to do about any of this. If you thought anyone in power were inclined to take “Never again” as seriously as you do, what practical steps would you propose that they take?
YY_Sima Qian
@Grumpy Old Railroader: I think NATO has long standardized munitions (certainly artillery & small arms) & most European fighters can fire American munitions (not too sure about the other way around). Unfortunately, Finland (whose mortar bombs were cited in the Kyiv Independent article) has only just joined NATO, so some of its munitions/systems are still bespoke & thus not compatible w/ other NATO systems/munitions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: Stalin used to do all of this at a much larger scale. Entire ethnic groups, numbering hundreds of thousands, were deported to distant lands thousands of miles away, w/ drastically different geography & ecology that would force them to abandon elements of their established culture. That is why there is a “Jewish Autonomous Oblast” right on the border w/ Manchuria (not that there are any Jews left, they’ve all emigrated to Israel or the US), & there are sizable Korean communities in Uzbekistan & Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
I noticed that Col. Chernyk is following the standard Cold War practice of counting the balance in artillery barrels, as if they are roughly equivalent. However, a single GRAD MRL w/ 40 rocket barrels is not equivalent to 40 howitzers/mortars. Definitely have to be careful here. I think the Russian Army still has a significant advantage in rocket artillery, so one can expect more of them have been destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, than the reverse is the case.
Another Scott
Made me look… TheAtlantic (from September 1953) – note the piece is quite jingoistic:
(Emphasis added.)
It always takes time.
Life is complicated. Modern production is complicated. War is very complicated.
Politics is very, very complicated these days, with divided government, a dysfunctional opposition, a giant NATO political wing that requires unanimity, and all the rest.
I don’t believe we live in the best of all possible worlds, but…
In early-mid February 2022 Biden was still having trouble convincing much of the world that VVP actually was going to invade. A proposal to Congress that winter for funding for a giant ramp-up of arms production would have gone nowhere. By the end of February, too many people believed that the “second strongest military in the world” would have their way with Ukraine in a few days or a couple of weeks, and going to Congress then would have been regarded by many as being less productive than simply setting billions of dollars on fire at RFK Stadium.
Ukraine’s success has helped make additional support possible. Their suffering for their homeland, and for a rules-based international order, has given political space for substantial economic and military support. Unfortunately, it all takes time, and will continue to take time.
The best thing we can do is to make sure we elect sensible people to continue that support and expand support to Ukraine.
Thanks Adam.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
Moscow under drone attack right now
Sebastian
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ukraine has significant advantage in Winter warfare simply by having troops equipped with winter uniforms. Unless the Russians found the missing uniforms or started caring for their soldiers, it’s going to be very cold in those trenches this winter.
Mike in DC
Ukraine has to bifurcate the front and cut off Crimea from Donbas(and Russia) no later than October 2023, or things will get really dicey. But if they do that, it’s a major turning point in the war.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sebastian: Frozen over winter ground makes breaching defenses even more difficult, no? Including mine-clearance.
Unfortunately, I think winter uniforms is something Russia can acquire fairly easily from North Korea or China, even if its own inventory is subpar.
Ukraine will also need to build up a preponderance of artillery & munitions & a mass of up to strength brigades for any offensive, winter or summer.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mike in DC: Why the Oct. 2023 deadline?
Chris
@Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride:
It seems realistic to admit that the U.S. won’t and probably can’t stop every act of genocide or ethnic cleansing. At the same time, this is a case where we really can help and at a very affordable price. With Ukraine, we have a partner that’s both willing and, as long as we supply them adequately, able to carry on the fight that would stop the genocide (something that was sorely lacking in, say, Afghanistan). Since it’s right on NATO’s border and NATO has, for close to eighty years, been geared towards repelling Russian aggression westward, we have an existing defense framework with the entire region that makes it much easier to get involved (something that’s much harder when the war crimes are happening in Rwanda or the Congo or some other place where we don’t have that longstanding security presence and host of partner nations). And public opinion across the board both here and in Europe remains broadly sympathetic to Ukraine, partly because enough people realize that there’s a self-interest component in this too; the people guilty of ethnic cleansing are people who ultimately want to do us harm, too.
Compared to most cases of ethnic cleansing we might want to stop, this is an easy lift. Not for the Ukrainians who’ll be doing all the actual work, but certainly for us. There’s really no excuse for lollygagging.
Chris
@Another Scott:
That’s absolutely true, but by the end of March, it was already very clear that 1) Russia was invading, 2) Russia was invading for all the marbles, and 3) Russia was in very deep shit, in absolutely no position to easily take Kiev, and there really was an opportunity here to drive them back, possibly all the way out of Ukraine, if we were willing to do the necessary supplying and supporting to Ukraine. What you’re saying excuses the indecision early last year, but not by the end of that winter.
There’s absolutely no excuse for the fact that, in August 2023, there’s still no training program for this or that weapon that we’re supplying them with, and no sign that it’ll be emerging any time soon.
Geminid
@Chris: The US also could have started building more 155 mm shell production capacity sooner. By this spring the limiting factor (I read) was the complex machines required for production. These machines take some time to produce and I think they could have been ordered sooner.
Chris
@Geminid:
All the “oh, but that would take time!” arguments for why this or that weapons system hasn’t been spun up yet keep reminding me of the probably apocryphal quote from Napoleon. He wants to plant tall trees along the sides of all the major roads in Europe, so that his soldiers can march in the shade; his aide-de-camp points out that it’ll take twenty years for those trees to grow; Napoleon says, yes indeed, so we must start at once!
Most of the things we’re talking about are far more critical than trees, and however long they take, it’s a lot less than twenty years, so…