Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

The lights are all blinking red.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

The problem people have with Biden’s age is the color of the VPs skin.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

‘Museums aren’t America’s attic for its racist shit.’

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

People are weird.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

He really is that stupid.

We won’t go back.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Let there be snark.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 545: Ukrainian Forces Are Successfully Evacuating Civilians from Robotyne

War for Ukraine Day 545: Ukrainian Forces Are Successfully Evacuating Civilians from Robotyne

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Ukrainian forces have entered Robotyne and are successfully evacuating the civilians. In US doctrinal terms this would be a NEO or non-combatant evacuation operation.

“We waited so long that today they came unexpectedly…” A touching video by the 47th Mechanized Brigade shows the rescue of residents of the village of Robotyne. These people have already been saved; they are on their way “to peace.” The liberation of the occupied cities and villages of Ukraine continues.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The overall summary of these days is that Ukraine has become stronger – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

22 August 2023 – 19:43

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on our activities these days. Four visits: Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, Greece. The Ukraine-Balkans Summit. Negotiations on the margins of the summit with Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, and the President of the European Commission. We are coming home with new political support and new agreements. Everyone clearly confirms the territorial integrity of Ukraine. There will be jets for Ukraine. There will be additional armored vehicles. We will reinforce air defense. Economy, our exports, European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Almost every meeting touched upon the protection of export routes across the Black Sea and through the “solidarity lanes” on land. A very important agreement with Greece, for which I am particularly grateful to the Prime Minister, is Greece’s willingness to take patronage over the recovery of our Odesa. The decision is not only substantive, but also very symbolic. It is filled with many historical and cultural meanings. The overall summary of these days is that Ukraine has become stronger.

I would also like to mention Luxembourg today – thank you for joining the G7 declaration on security guarantees. Every week adds new security opportunities for us. I am grateful to our entire team that is working for this!

And one more thing.

The annual veterans’ forum was held in Kyiv. I was honored to open it with my address. I hope that all government officials participating in the forum will listen carefully to the needs and suggestions of our veteran community. The Ukrainian policy of heroes, that is, the Ukrainian veteran policy, must be effective. And it will be. This is the responsibility of every relevant official.

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Grateful to the Kingdom of the Netherlands for its long-term security guarantees to Ukraine.
The Kingdom of the Netherlands will soon provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft. This decision demonstrates the Kingdom’s leadership role in supporting our country. It is not only providing equipment, but also actively cooperating in training pilots, developing our Air Force infrastructure, and providing necessary equipment. These initiatives are proof of the strong solidarity and commitment of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in strengthening Ukraine’s security and sovereignty.
Thank you Kajsa Ollongren @DefensieMin for your support & principled position!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱
#InternationalCooperation #SovereigntyProtection

 

I just want to clarify something regarding my critique of the F-16 process in specific and the overall logistics delays in general. I am very, very, very aware of how the US defense enterprise works in terms of acquisitions and logistics. I have sat through every lesson in what was called Defense Enterprise Management and the Defense Management when I was assigned to US Army War College as I was tasked with doing a review of the resident course core curriculum during my first year there. So that meant when I wasn’t actually running the seminar for the lessons I was responsible for, that I was sitting in the seminar room with my colleagues and the students. And I was also doing all the readings. I have two overlapping criticisms of what the US has done so far. The first, as everyone is aware that has been reading these updates, is that the senior national security appointees in the Biden administration seem to be very small “c” conservative in regard to national security, defense, and foreign policy and exceedingly risk averse. My professional opinion is that right now we could use a little more of fortune favors the bold. I want to clarify the second criticism because I am very aware that F-16s are not going to miraculously change things for the Ukrainians. However, my professional opinion is that moving much faster on the F-16 request, as well as similar requests for other weapons systems and munitions might have had a deterrent effect on the Russians. This is similar to my argument from before the re-invasion began as to why we needed to really ramp up our military footprint in Europe. To deter the Russians. The other part of this is assurance. Assurance to all of our allies and partners that when there is an actual interstate war we can actually put ourselves on a war footing and move with a degree of haste necessary to meet the requirements of those we’re supporting. A large part of my frustration stems from the fact that seeming to slow walk everything means we are removing deterrence and assurance from the strategic calculus. Even worse, we give Putin reinforcements that his red lines are deterring us. Which is also not good.

This is both good news and excellent statement from Jake Sullivan. Credit where credit is due:

The Economist‘s Shashank Joshi is spot on with his analysis:

Kyiv:

 

For you drone/loitering munitions enthusiasts:

Even the Ukrainians no American agitprop when they see it:

Tatarigami also has another excellent thread on Russian mines. First tweet from the thread. The rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ Although the the mine’s mechanism is quite complex, the activation process is comparably straightforward: through its sensors, the mine detects, discerns, and trails a target, subsequently deploying submunition into the air, targeting a vehicle’s vulnerable roof section.Source:“Zavod Imeni G. I. Petrovsky”.
3/ From the recently surfaced video, it’s clear that the mine is notably large, requiring a substantial amount of time for deployment, which must be done manually. Furthermore, the mine’s functionality depends on sensors powered by batteries. 
4/ The Russian AT guide recommends installing these mines on the periphery of towns, towards the anticipated path of vehicles. The mine fuse setup allows the targeting of the 3rd to 4th vehicles in the convoy, blocking the column and setting right conditions for artillery fire. 
5/ The mine is marketed as a cost-effective solution , utilized by the Russians in this war. This naturally leads to follow-up questions: How common are these mines? How extensive is the damage caused by them? Have any documented losses been attributed to this mine? 
6/ In my effort to address these questions, I read reports, reached out to multiple people, checked captured documents related to minefields. Apparently, there have been only a few isolated instances where these mines were found inactive or were captured before their deployment.Image
7/ Considering the full year and a half of the largest post-World War II war in Europe – one would expect to encounter a multitude of videos showcasing the use of these mines. However, in reality, what we seem to witness is another instance of the “Armata” myth weapon scenario.Image
8/ While I aim not to downplay the lethality of a weapon, the fact that it’s noticeably absent from the frontline implies substantial issues, be it related to production, performance, cost-effectiveness, or perhaps a combination of these factors. 

And a couple of follow ons:

We’re going to need a welfare check on Illia Ponomarenko!

 

The cost:

Vladyslav Yeshchenko. Deminer. A native of Horlivka, a city in the Donetsk region that came under russian occupation in 2014.

He lost his eyesight while deactivating explosive devices. In his four months of hospitalization, he drew inspiration and strength from Valeriia, his beloved.

In January, Vladyslav established the charitable organization “Let’s See The Victory” to personally assist veterans like himself.

Yesterday, Vladyslav and Valeriia celebrated their wedding.

📷 @Liberov

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There is a new Patron slide show at his official TikTok. The slide shows don’t embed here, so click through to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

63Comments

  2. 2.

    Carlo Graziani

    Excellent news about Robotyne!

    The UA is keeping up amazing pressure on the Russians.

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    I have a bed update:

    So my shipped last Friday. Was scheduled to arrive this Wednesday. Yesterday I got an alert that it was arriving early. As in yesterday afternoon. Got home and I’ve got two boxes. One is clearly the pillows, bedding, and mattress cover. The other is large and rectangular and I figure that’s the bed. Check the email notices from PlushBeds and it says the entire order is delivered. Get the large box open, get the shrink-wrapped item into place on the bed, get it open, it inflates, and I’m like “what the fuck is that?” It was the firm natural organic latex pillow top that goes into the mattress. Now I’m like where’s the mattress. Check with FedEx it is out for delivery on another truck. Apparently they split the order. Says it will arrive by 8 PM. At 8 PM it updates to delivery date is not scheduled. This AM, of course, it updates to delivery today by 2:15 PM. I got home and there it was. I got the box in the house, got the mattress out of the box, and shield carried it to the bed. Get it on the bed and I start peeling/unwinding the thin shrink wrap that is holding the mattress into the rolled up tube. As I get the last bit peeled off I notice two things. The first is it is upside down. The second is I can hear it starting to inflate even though I haven’t even cut open the thicker cryovac like shrink wrap. So Now I’m trying to get it turned over and out of the shrink wrap while it is already expanding. Got that done. Got the latex topper into the pillow top chamber and got it zipped up. The bed is now made and the girls and I are now chilling on it. So far I’ve only sat on it, but it is exceedingly comfortable. After sitting on the old temperpedic for about 20 minutes or so my butt, hips, and lower back would start to hurt. I’ve been sitting on this for almost an hour and it’s just comfy.

    I definitely will not need to either lift or do cardio tonight! And I expect I’ll sleep like a rock.

  5. 5.

    topclimber

    Perhaps you covered this already. It’s about corruption in Ukraine’s conscription system. I didn’t see it until now.

    I think it is great that Zelenskky just fired the heads of the regional conscription services. It is yet another sign that he and his country are righteous warriors. Also, they are smart enough that less corruption (who gets to zero in a war?) helps sell the West on continued aid.

    Thanks yet again for doing this blog, come rain or storm or hell or high water.

    And thanks for being a mensch about Jake Sullivan. I am commenting quickly because this might change soon (you are on the clock Jake!). Everyone always says they support people they disagree with when they do something helpful; only a few actually walk this walk. Congratulations on being one of them.

  8. 8.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Interesting stuff about the top-down tank-killing mines.  However, they are larger than dragons’ teeth and might weigh more.  Why use these anywhere you expect to fight back, especially if you can’t use your own armor nearby without setting them off?

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Most of the Wunderwaffen that Russia promoted to potential customers before the war have turned out to be decidedly underwhelming or for parade only.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    The monument looks so much better now. Beautiful.

    This weird competition some people are trying to force between aid to Ukraine and aid to Maui is so…gross. And it’s not like the people pushing it really give a damn about either one.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  16. 16.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    because they can be set in the verge up to 40 metres away from the path of travel. They are impossible to see from an AFV, unlike standard AT mines which are set on the possible routes of travel.

    Some of the more sophisticated ones, can be remotely “turned active”. So you can set up your roadside ambush, let your convoy through, activate the mines an leave a nasty surprise for the enemy convoy that just saw your convoy drive through safely.

  17. 17.

    Anoniminous

    Ran across this and thought people would find it interesting.

    “In preparation for Operation Zitadelle …. XI Infantry Corps made a thorough study of the problem of crossing the extensive mine fields on the east side of the Donets. The usual procedure of sending engineer detachments to clear narrow lanes for the advance of the infantry spearheads was not considered satisfactory since the terrain offered no cover and the enemy could inflict heavy casualties upon engineers and infantry by concentrating his fire on those lanes. Several improvised methods for overcoming this obstacle were therefore under consideration.

    The identification of the mined area was the first prerequisite since the infantry had to know its exact location prior to the crossings. …. Another prerequisite was that the infantry should be able to spot the location of individual mines at close range with the naked eye. In many places small mounds or depressions, dry grass, differences in the coloring of the ground, or some other external marks facilitated the spotting.”

    <blah-blah elided>

    “The … best method was to thoroughly instruct all infantrymen in enemy [Red Army] mine-laying techniques and in spotting mines by using captured enemy mine fields as training grounds. This procedure required that all infantrymen be sent to rear area in rotation and was therefore rather time-consuming.”

    <skip>

    The beginning of the attack was so times that the infantry would be able to detect the enemy mines without difficulty. All the mine fields were quickly crossed by spearheads which suffered practically no casualties.”

    “After the first had passed through, the engineers rapidly cleared a number of lanes and marked them with colored tape so that the reserves and heavy weapons could follow. Again there were no mine casualties.”

    “This improvised procedure of crossing mine fields became common practice because it avoided many casualties, resulted in quick capture of enemy positions, and was therefore very effective in the Russian theater.”

    Source: Military Improvisations During the Russian Campaign.  Dept. of the Army Pamphlet No. 20-201. 1951

  20. 20.

    Roger Moore

    @Anonymous At Work:

    However, they are larger than dragons’ teeth and might weigh more. Why use these anywhere you expect to fight back, especially if you can’t use your own armor nearby without setting them off?

    They sound like one of these things that was developed and put into production because it sounded extremely cool, but where practical experience shows the flaws.  My impression is this kind of thing is pretty common with new weapons systems.  The concept is good but the implementation needs a few more iterations to reach its full potential.

  21. 21.

    Anoniminous

    @Alison Rose: ​ Are you saying the ~23.7 million full-time and part-time employees of the Federal Government can do two things at once? Simultaneously & on the same working day?
    golly​

  24. 24.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Question on RU jets & copters: do we know if they are building more and the rate?

  25. 25.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    Oh, btw, Ruzzia’s “Dragon’s teeth” arn’t “Dragon’s Teeth”.

    Real Dragon’s teeth are 3′ to 4′ steel reinforced concrete pyramids anchored 4′ to 8′, (dependent on soil conditions) on steel reinforced concrete piers and are poured as a uniblock structure.

    Ruzzia’s “Dragons Teeth” are 2 1/2′ to 3′ precast pyramids placed on the ground like Lego blocks on a carpet.

    Real Dragon’s Teeth need to be blown up with demolition charges or buried under bulldozed dirt ramps.

    Ruzzia’s “Dragon’s Teeth” can be stolen by anyone with a tractor or ATV.

  27. 27.

    Roger Moore

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It’s a classic false choice, where it’s unacceptable to work on problem B until problem A is completely solved.  It’s a favorite of people who want to block any action on problem B but know it will sound bad to say it that way.  Instead, they come up with a vaguely related problem A they know is intractable and pretend it’s unacceptable to spend any resources on B until A is completely solved.  Some classic examples are, “why are we giving housing to drug addicts when there are homeless veterans,” and, “we can’t talk about the DREAM act until the border is completely secure”.

    You can bet the people saying this are mostly opposed to giving any aid to Ukraine, and they’re just picking the issue of the day as something that must be dealt with first.  I expect the whole thing will turn out to be part of a Russian influence campaign.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @Roger Moore:

    Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D
    @RVAwonk
    Aug 19
    This is an important development:

    Chinese state media is joining forces with Russia to amplify a coordinated right-wing narrative about the US neglecting Hawaii. But China & Russia don’t care about Hawaii — they care about weakening the US. Especially our military.

    https://nitter.net/RVAwonk/status/1692869899108913506#m

    Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D
    @RVAwonk
    Aug 12
    So, the “fund Hawaii, not Ukraine” talking point has a lot of characteristics of a coordinated campaign that turned “organic” after seeding the narrative. These are a few examples.

    https://nitter.net/RVAwonk/status/1690170074252914688#m

  33. 33.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Jay: Thank you.  The remote activated aspect was what I needed to know.  Anything else and it seems more dangerous to your forces not retreating exactly on schedule and exactly by the pre-set route.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    The Ruzzian ones are pretty crude, are set and armed at time of placement and have a short battery life.

    The German ones are state of the art.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PARM_1_min

    BTW, defensive lines are laid out with “pass through” areas. Unmined, un trenched, no tank traps but covered with heavy weapons. The idea is to lure attacking forces into a shooting gallery. The thing is, your retreating forces have to use these pass through areas as well, and with drones and satellites, both sides know where they are. If you don’t have “the reach” and your opponent does, these areas can become a shooting gallary for your retreating forces as well.

  36. 36.

    eversor

    Remember the key indicator of support for Russia is… wait for it, savor it, Christianity!  It was Christianity that pulled the GOP into Putins orbit.  So are you anti Putin, or are you anti Christian.  Choice is binary yet again.   Me, I don’t like Putin.

  37. 37.

    japa21

    Golly I’m Christian and don’t like Putin either.  In fact, I would bet the large majority of Christians don’t like Putin.  But, why even try…

  39. 39.

    oldster

    Adam, check me on whether this makes any sense:

    One way to bypass mines and trenches is to hop over them. Ferry your troops across in helicopters. Ferry across HMMVs and light artillery to give them mobility and teeth.  Ukraine cannot do that right now, because ruzzian jets would shoot down the helicopters. But with F-16s providing cover, it might be possible to keep the ruzzian jets at a safe distance while the ferrying operations take place.

    Is that crazy? Or is that a possible scenario for e.g. next summer, when Ukraine has a dozen F-16s in operation, along with their remaining Migs?

  42. 42.

    wjca

    @eversor:

    I bet you also agree Hitler ran the trains on time.

    FYI, Mussolini (i.e. his fascistd) was the one who supposedly made the trains run on time.  (News flash: he didn’t.)  The Hitler version seems to be from a Herblock cartoon.

  43. 43.

    Bill Arnold

    @Old School:
    There’s this meaning of incredible: “Impossible, or very difficult, to believe:”
    Usage to describe a “human” would be unusual, but maybe amusing.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @eversor: @eversor: Yes, there has been a concerted effort by Putin, working through his former KGB colleague Patriarch Kyrill, to coopt white Christian evangelicals (Evangelicals, Charismatics, and Fundamentalists) in the US. We have plenty of documentation for that.

    That said, how about you dial it back about 3 notches on this. Try painting with a finer tipped brush.

  45. 45.

    Yarrow

    Mother Ukraine looks great!  Thanks for the update, Adam.

    My neighbors are Dutch and are kind of excited that Zelensky was visiting. And that they’re helping provide the F-16s.

  47. 47.

    Lyrebird

    @eversor: ​
     
    Links? Facts?

    Wikipedia claims that 87% of Ukrainians identify as Christian, so that’s I think more than 30 million Christians, and at least 25 million of ’em hate Putin enough to want to continue the war effort.

  49. 49.

    Anoniminous

    @oldster: ​
     
    Ukraine doesn’t have the airlift capability to insert, reinforce, supply, and continuously re-supply a force large enough to make the effort worthwhile.

  50. 50.

    oldster

    @Jay:

    I’m well aware of Hostomel airport, and I even remember an episode in Somalia some years ago that turned out badly for our guys. Troop-movement via helicopter always comes with risks.

    But bashing your head against mine-fields involves a lot of risks, too.

    Despite Hostomel, and previous episodes like it, the US will continue inserting troops into new places by air. They will do it when it’s the most effective, least risky way. And they will certainly do it when the alternative is to drive those troops through mine-fields.

    We can dare to do that, because we generally operate with overwhelming air superiority. My question is: will the provision of F-16s tip the balance towards Ukraine sufficiently far to make this sort of troop-movement thinkable?

    Ukraine needs to get through, or under, or over, the belts of defensive works that the ruzzians put in place. They are not deep; if they could hop 20km or in some places only 10km, they could get behind those lines and create significant breakthroughs. My question for Adam is simply: is this one of the scenarios for the use of the new fighters?

  51. 51.

    oldster

    @Anoniminous:

    Okay, that’s a different worry — that even if they could keep hostile fighters at bay, they simply would not have the cargo capacity to move enough troops and materiel.

    Fair point.

  52. 52.

    Prescott Cactus

    @oldster: wrote

    My question is: will the provision of F-16s tip the balance towards Ukraine sufficiently far to make this sort of troop-movement thinkable?

    I would still worry about the folks with shoulder fired things and capacity.

    If your air superiority is that good you should be able to bypass mined lanes and take a long way.  Either option burns minutes / hours.

    How many people can you fit in a .mil chopper?  Google says a Boeing Chinook 33 to 55 soldiers or 100 people, but it’s a big target. Plus its USD $39 million without floor mats or pin striping.

  53. 53.

    jackmac

    @Adam L Silverman: Beds are just completely different these days. I just transitioned from a lumpy, sagging 35-year-old mattress with box springs to one that similarly came in a small box and explosively inflated upon release from its plastic bag prison. Wonderful mattress with built-in pillow top and no need for box springs. The new bed frame does the job. The new mattress is  firm, but quite comfortable and I’ve had nothing but great nights of sleep so far.  I don’t know why I waited to long to do this.

    And, yes, I know this is the serious nightly Ukraine update and thanks for all you do! But I also had to add my comment to your bed tale.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    @oldster:

    The key advantage for Ukraine of F-16’s, (if fully armed with weapons), is that they can push RUAS Forces deeper into Russia, (they have better radar, avionics and weapons). That reduces RUAS terror strikes on Ukrainian Cities.

    Once they have done that, they can attrit forward deployed Ruzzian ground deployed air defences.

    After that, they can then use their air to ground abilities to attrit Ruzzian supply bases and forward deployed ground assets.

    Currently, on attempts at breakthroughs, the Ruzzian’s respond with arty and KA-52’s to stop the column, then use arty, air and  ground based “re-mining” equiptment to block forward movement, recovery and retreats.

    Once Ukraine has air superiority, the KA-52’s can’t fly, the arty will be attritted along with the various ground defense systems, so in theory, the Ruzzian blocking tactic’s won’t work.

    Even in both Iraq War’s, the way forward, was through. The Iraqi’s could not remine, their arty could not cover the spaces, due to not having air superiority.

  57. 57.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the updated numbers, & best wishes to you and yours.

    Adam, I hpe the mattress exceeds your expectations and provides excellent sleep!  What you are doing here is enormous.

  59. 59.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay:  Neither side is going to assert air superiority in this war. It is simply not going to happpen, and would not happen if there were a wing’s worth of Ukrainian pilots with 12 months of training in F16s, and airframes, mechanics, airstrips, fuel, and parts to match with them.

    This is a war in which AD dominates air power. It is remotely possible that fully-trained and equipped NATO air forces (principally USAF) could, at some considerable cost, carry out a sufficiently extensive SEAD op to bring about some approximation of the air superiority to which US forces are accustomed, although I’ve seen some learned commentary suggesting that this may no longer be possible, at least against near-peer adversaries such as Russia.

    The Bronk argument for F16s that Chethan was citing the other day concerned marginal improvements in frontal aviation near contested airspace. It’s probably the most cogent argument for impactfulness of F16s in the current war, and it isn’t much. Air superiority is not what anyone imagines is accessible to the UAF, no matter how much assistance they receive.

  60. 60.

    NutmegAgain

    @jackmac: Well hey if it’s a “what’s your best online mattress” shindig, I will say that (as I have a degenerative spine disease and a bunch of metal in my back) I am very exacting. Very!  I love my Brooklyn Plank. It is now available with a latex layer and some other attractions, but mine is only 4 years only and going strong. Miracle really.

  61. 61.

    Lyrebird

    @Carlo Graziani: It’s probably the most cogent argument for impactfulness of F16s in the current war,

    I can’t find the link just now but iirc Kos has also talked about the possibility of going after the boats used to launch many of those civilian-killing missiles.  This does not address your main point, just adding it to a list of realistic hoped-for outcomes.

  62. 62.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    In the First Iraq War, the Allies spent the first 6 months in the Air War.

    They first pushed back Iraqi Air Forces assets.

    Then Iraqi ground based air defense’s,

    Then, the Airports

    Then, the Iraqi Army.

    F-16’s have better sensors that RUAS aircraft, offensive and defense. They have longer ranged and more accurate missiles and bombs. What they don’t have is in the aircraft’s combat range.

    Ukraine can’t establish air superiority over the entire air combat zones, (that would require more aircraft, tankers and AWAC’s) but they can establish air superiority over the Ukraine ground battle front.

    Ruzzia’s ground based air defenses don’t have much of a track record against Western Aircraft since the 1972 War. Unlike the Wild Weasel’s of the Vietnam era, NATO AASRM’s can strike beyond even a S-400’s range.

    F-16’s will help Ukraine. They won’t be the be all and end all, but they will help tilt the balance.

  63. 63.

    Geminid

    There is an interesting report from Reuters: the Russian Ministry of Defense said that it scrambled two figher jets to intercept a pair of drones on a reconnaissance mission near Crimea, and that the drones then changed course away from the peninsula.

    The interesting part: the MoD described the two drones as an MQ-9 Reaper and a Bayraktar TB-2. If it was in fact a Bayraktar TB-2 this was most likely a joint US-Turkish patrol.

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