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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 546: Slow News Day or Schrodinger’s Prighozin

War for Ukraine Day 546: Slow News Day or Schrodinger’s Prighozin

by Adam L Silverman|  August 23, 20238:43 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Slow news day, huh? I’ve had another busy one and have at least one more tomorrow. I just got in. So I’m going to cover the big stuff and then hit publish.

Orchestra Wagner, which is one of the last not locked down official Wagner Telegram channels is confirming what has been reported: Evegeny Prigozhin is dead. I’ll get to that after the jump as I’m going to include machine translated screengrabs.

Here’s the President Zelenskyy’s address delivered to the Ukrainian and foreign press at the third summit of the Crimean platform earlier today. Video below, English excerpts/description after the jump.

We do not exchange our territories for any membership in any union – President of Ukraine

23 August 2023 – 21:22

Ukraine is fighting for the de-occupation of Crimea and all other Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russia and is not ready to give up any of its lands in exchange for membership in any union. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting with media representatives in the framework of the 3rd Summit of the International Crimea Platform in Kyiv.

“My position is unequivocal: Crimea is Ukraine. We are fighting for Crimea and all other temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories and will not exchange our territories for any membership in any union,” the Head of State said.

He noted that the security and defense forces of Ukraine are conducting a counteroffensive to de-occupy our cities and villages, but this is a difficult task.

According to him, Ukraine has a constant need for artillery and long-range weapons, so the help of partners is very important.

“If we are talking about long-range weapons, we are working on it. Diplomats, the Head of the President’s Office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs have respective tasks. I am working on this in different directions. We are lobbying in different ways, but we will definitely get results. Just like we got serious missiles. Now that we are using them, it is no longer a secret. It was not easy. We have Storm Shadow. Just like with Rishi (Sunak – ed.), I negotiated with Emmanuel Macron about SCALP missiles. We have received SCALPs, they are working, the troops are very satisfied. Almost one hundred percent accuracy in hitting the enemy,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President of Ukraine also spoke about plans to enhance security in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

“Diplomats have been tasked with preparing a security alliance of the Black Sea countries – not contrary to NATO, don’t think so: it is jointly with NATO countries. So that we have a joint defense of the Black Sea and Azov coasts against Russian aggression. I would even say: The Azov, Black Sea and Baltic space,” the Head of State emphasized.

Today Ukraine is celebrating Flag Day.
The flag of the brave, the flag of the steadfast, the flag of the free.
The flag of hope for liberation, the flag of faith in victory, the flag of a peaceful life in our native land. pic.twitter.com/8E6xeqkgeR

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 23, 2023

The 24th of August is Ukrainian Independence Day. Since it is after midnight in Ukraine, an early Happy Independence Day!

This afternoon, the Orchestra Wagner Telegram channel began posting regarding the downing of Prigozhin’s plane.

Here is the first post:

A little over 90 minutes later they posted:

9 minutes later:

90 minutes after that:

And two minutes after that:

They’ve also confirmed the original of the three Dmitry Utkins was also killed:

Anyhow, this is the final post for now on Orchestra Wagner’s Telegram channel:

Dmitri has video of the downing and the crash:

Ironically, the plane took a bit of time before it hit the ground. pic.twitter.com/z1bQlhTbvZ

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) August 23, 2023

Russia, Tver Oblast: Evgeniy Prigozhin reportedly dead as a result of a plane crash.

Doubt that any sane people will despair about this event. pic.twitter.com/uF2mKCliIG

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) August 23, 2023

🧵1/3 The cause of Prigozhin's plane crash remains undetermined, but there have been assertions of air defenses involvement. The S-300 air defense unit is located roughly 50 km from the crash site, adds weight to this theory, though not as conclusive or final proof. pic.twitter.com/H3pgQIepcK

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 23, 2023

3/3 I include this information for context, but it doesn't reflect my final stance on the events.
However, I am personally inclined to believe that it wasn't accidental and that the airplane sustained damage while in the air.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 23, 2023

It would. I already replied multiple times – I didn't say that it was hit by S-300. I just said that there are AD units in the area and provided visual evidence.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 23, 2023

My take is that Prigozhin’s jet was definitely brought down. It is probable and plausible that he and Utkin were onboard and are now dead. It is also probable and plausible that Prigozhin faked his own death to go into hiding in order to get off of Putin’s radar. All of that said, Putin has done a very good job of removing everyone who could possible be a threat to him, be perceived as a legitimate potential replacement for him, or both. These men, and they have all been men, are either dead or, like Navalny, in prison. So he’s most likely dead, but let’s see what tomorrow’s reporting brings. Especially if there’s a body.

The Port of Izmail, Odesa Oblast:

13,000 tons of grain were destroyed last night as a result of the eighth consecutive russian drone kamikaze attack on the infrastructure at the port of Izmail.

Several private grain terminals and warehouses, as well as cargo infrastructure, suffered damage. The agricultural… pic.twitter.com/LYHiXaOw1v

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 23, 2023

13,000 tons of grain were destroyed last night as a result of the eighth consecutive russian drone kamikaze attack on the infrastructure at the port of Izmail.

Several private grain terminals and warehouses, as well as cargo infrastructure, suffered damage. The agricultural products stored there were heading for Egypt and Romania.

In total, russians have destroyed 270,000 tons of grain over the course of a month. This is a cynical blow to global food security.

Romny, Sumy Oblast:

A school building was completely destroyed in the city of Romny, Sumy region, as a result of an attack by Shahed 133/131 drones on the morning of August 23rd. russian terrorists killed two teachers, and at least three more were injured. Rescue operations are ongoing, with people… pic.twitter.com/pKaCLMfuqk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 23, 2023

A school building was completely destroyed in the city of Romny, Sumy region, as a result of an attack by Shahed 133/131 drones on the morning of August 23rd. russian terrorists killed two teachers, and at least three more were injured. Rescue operations are ongoing, with people still trapped under the rubble.

📷 @SESU_UA

Currently, schools across Ukraine are getting ready for the new academic year. Two teachers in Romny, Sumy region were also at their school. Until Russia killed them. 2 more people could be under debris. pic.twitter.com/qhsrW3tCrj

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 23, 2023

Chernihiv:

The cost:

For whatever reason the tweet won’t embed, so here’s a screengrab:

Robotyne:

Yep, Robotybe has been liberated.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 23, 2023

Kharkiv:

This is legendary story: Ukraine's intelligence lured Mi-8 pilot to Ukraine. Helicopter transported parts for Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets. Two other crew members were unaware of their actual destination. Mі-8 landed in Kharkiv Oblast, and it’s reported helicopter is already in… pic.twitter.com/UmeyBC1qKt

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 23, 2023

This is legendary story: Ukraine’s intelligence lured Mi-8 pilot to Ukraine. Helicopter transported parts for Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets. Two other crew members were unaware of their actual destination. Mі-8 landed in Kharkiv Oblast, and it’s reported helicopter is already in Kyiv.

Olenivka:

Here’s is the big boom. It used to be Russian S-400 Triumf near Olenivka, Tarkhankut. Ouch pic.twitter.com/hBoLU0S1b4

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 23, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets, videos, or slideshows.

So here’s a pupdate from Illia Ponomarenko:

An update on Churchill the Dog.
Three weeks after being taken just from streets, in fact. pic.twitter.com/fT2ivY3Vjo

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 23, 2023

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Reader Interactions

69Comments

  1. 1.

    Anoniminous

    August 23, 2023 at 8:59 pm

    Easy enough to put a bomb on a plane when your buddies are in charge of airport security.

    Putzi was an idiot thinking he could embarrass Putin and then shout ‘”BACKSIES!!!! ”  and expect to live.

  2. 2.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 8:59 pm

    Looks like Russia might have problems with air defense.

    Seems to work fine against Civilian Passenger aircraft.

    nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF4QBS48asAE4FUw.jpg

    nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF4QB92mbkAEHPQt.jpg

    nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF4QZFtabwAAWcbi.jpg

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    August 23, 2023 at 8:59 pm

    “Doubt that any sane people will despair” ahh but see, therein lies the issue! So many non-sane people in russia, laying flowers and weeping over this personification of every sinful thought of every human who has ever lived throughout time immemorial. Also, I don’t believe in the idea of hell as typically constructed, but even if it were real, I doubt prig is there. Even Satan would be like “nah dude FOH”.

    Churchill the Dog is very happy about the plane crash! What a good boy.

    Whenever I see or hear the phrase “Crimea is Ukraine”, I start singing it in my head to the tune of Bei Mir Bist Du Schön.

    Crimea is Ukraine, please let me explain

    Crimea is Ukraine and russia sucks

    Crimea is Ukraine, again I’ll explain

    It means go back home, you stupid fucks

    It won’t win a Grammy, but it’s kinda snappy.

    Thank you as always, Adam. Perhaps tomorrow alongside TIFG’s mugshot we’ll also get a morgueshot of the butcher.

  4. 4.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 9:01 pm

    @Anoniminous:

    shrapnel patterns in the photos of a wing and other portions of the fuselage are consistent with a SAM strike.

  5. 5.

    Roger Moore

    August 23, 2023 at 9:05 pm

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot bigfoot stamping on a human face post, forever.

  6. 6.

    Anoniminous

    August 23, 2023 at 9:05 pm

    @Jay:

    Ah, new information

  7. 7.

    oldster

    August 23, 2023 at 9:06 pm

    As I said on another thread, the story of the defecting helicopter pilot would have been the day’s biggest news if not for the destruction of Prigozhin’s plane. Budanov may have been briefly disappointed at his coup being upstaged, but on balance I suspect he was happy with the result.

    Prigozhin dead or in hiding? Whacked by Putin or faking his own death? Either one looks extremely bad for ruzzia. It looks like a lawless, dysfunctional, out of control dystopia. Xi Jinping is going to look at this and want nothing to do with ruzzia. Modi is going to laugh at it — he put a lander on the Moon, after Putin’s attempt failed.

    It’s all bad news for ruzzia, so it’s all good news for Ukraine. With every new village that they liberate, every ruzzian SAM site that they knock out, every bomber that they destroy on its own airstrip, they get closer to liberating their country from the mad invaders.

  8. 8.

    Freemark

    August 23, 2023 at 9:11 pm

    If it is Prig I’m sure he was surprised. There is no way he thought Putin wanted him dead. One, he wouldn’t have been flying inside Russia, especially between Moscow and St.Petersburg. And two, no way his name would have ever been on a passenger manifest.

  9. 9.

    Roger Moore

    August 23, 2023 at 9:11 pm

    It is also probable and plausible that Prigozhin faked his own death to go into hiding in order to get off of Putin’s radar.

    If there was a SAM involved, it seems plausible but improbable.  It would at the very least require Prigozhin to have very solid information he was being targeted for it to make sense for him to fake his travel on the plane today.

  10. 10.

    The Pale Scot

    August 23, 2023 at 9:14 pm

    If I was the leader of a semi illegal merc company, I’d be sure to at least have targeting radar receivers for the aircraft I’m using.

    Oh my! So sad, Never mind

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    August 23, 2023 at 9:15 pm

    Couple of gangsters killed by a gangster. Where’d I leave my violin? It’s so tiny it could be anywhere.

  12. 12.

    Omnes Omnibus

    August 23, 2023 at 9:17 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
      Check before you sit down. They are hard to replace.

  13. 13.

    Gin & Tonic

    August 23, 2023 at 9:19 pm

    What I like about the video in the second Avdeeva tweet, with the S-400 battery going boom, is that UA had a reconnaissance drone in the air filming it. Somebody on Twitter said that was like Babe Ruth calling his shot.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 9:21 pm

    @oldster:

    Dead. You can’t fake a SAM strike with an onboard bomb, and Wagner was stripped of all it’s heavy weapons and air defenses.

    But it’s nice to see that Ruzzia’s SMO to denazify  has finally whacked some prominent Nazi’s.

  15. 15.

    Carlo Graziani

    August 23, 2023 at 9:23 pm

    Not very subtle. A planted bomb would at least have left some forensic doubt as to the sender, but there can be no doubt whatever now (acknowledging Adam’s reservation concerning a faked death, but that seems a bit too movie-plot to me, as I can’t see where Prigozhin might go to live in his accustomed style, even if he could pull off such a difficult disappearing act).

    Assuming it was a SAM, then there’s a very clear message here that nobody even troubled to bury in subtext. MOD would never dare do this without direct authorization. This was a Putin-sent hit.

  16. 16.

    dmsilev

    August 23, 2023 at 9:25 pm

    @Carlo Graziani: Yeah, the phrase “you come at the king, you best not miss” comes to mind.

  17. 17.

    Alison Rose

    August 23, 2023 at 9:29 pm

    Zelenskyy honored this year’s winners of the National Legend of Ukraine award, which included a posthumous one for “Da Vinci” as well as a neurosurgeon, a journalist, a musician, and a few others, including this man:

    Fuminori Tsuchiko. Japanese volunteer. With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he came to Ukraine on purpose to support those who were forced to live in the Kharkiv subway, hiding from shelling. He opened a cafe at his own expense, where he organized daily free meals for the locals.

    I don’t recollect if I’ve heard of him before, but this made me a little verklempt. And when he came up to get his award and bowed so solemnly, it was very touching. (The video doesn’t have subtitles, but it was still nice to watch. Also, forgive me for a moment of shallowness, but jeez, Olena is beautiful.)

  18. 18.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 9:31 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    It would at the very least require Prigozhin to have very solid information he was being targeted for it to make sense for him to fake his travel on the plane today.

    The passenger manifest, along with the issues the Ruzzian MOD is having in getting Wagner fighters and commanders to switch to the MOD, other Ogliarch’s PMC’s or giving up their lucrative contracts and looting in Africa, suggest’s that Prigozhin and other prominent Wagner leaders were trying to negotiate some kind of “deal” saving part’s of Wagner.

  19. 19.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 9:36 pm

    @Alison Rose:

    Fuminori Tsuchiko is famous in Ukraine.

  20. 20.

    Alison Rose

    August 23, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    @Jay: I’m sure I must have seen his name somewhere (probably here!) but it didn’t stick in my mind.

  21. 21.

    Gin & Tonic

    August 23, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    NY Post put this on Twitter

    Russian dissident Yevgeny Prigozhin reported dead after a plane crash outside Moscow

    Journalism at its finest.

  22. 22.

    oldster

    August 23, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    @Jay:

    Oh, I would definitely put my money on “dead,” if I had any to bet.  And the SAM strike was certainly real enough — to judge by one bit of audio from an eyewitness, there were two missile hits on it.

    But on the other hand, we’ll never get solid info of Prig’s death that will convince the doubters — the black boxes and autopsies and DNA samples will all be handled by the Kremlin, and who would believe them? The usual rule is don’t believe a thing has happened until the Kremlin denies it.

    The upshot is the same: there is no scenario on which Prig remains a player. Wagner is a thing of the past. Their mutiny was a farce, except for the pilots that they shot out of the air on their way to Moscow. And I’d say those pilots and their families have now evened the score.

  23. 23.

    Carlo Graziani

    August 23, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    @Jay:  Classic mob hit setup. Called to a routine meeting by a friend.

  24. 24.

    Omnes Omnibus

    August 23, 2023 at 9:42 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Like a combination of Vaclev Havel and Otis Redding?

  25. 25.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    @Alison Rose:

    It’s more his story that sticks than his name.

    pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/05/7/7401000/

  26. 26.

    Calouste

    August 23, 2023 at 9:57 pm

    If Prigozhin tried to fake his own death, I doubt very much that Putin would believe it. And it would have been far easier for Prigozhin to just disappear from the radar in Africa.

  27. 27.

    Lyrebird

    August 23, 2023 at 10:03 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
     

    Hm. Trying to translate that out of double-speak…

    “Scourge of democracy and lead torturer YP reported dead…”

  28. 28.

    Bupalos

    August 23, 2023 at 10:04 pm

    @Anoniminous: assuming. I actually (optimistically) think they probably had to shoot it down. Which would be a sign.

    When you’re shooting down “friendly” planes over your territory… tick tock mfers.

  29. 29.

    Lyrebird

    August 23, 2023 at 10:06 pm

    @Alison Rose: ​

    @Jay: ​
     

    Thanks for spotlighting such a generous spirit. Nothhing can erase the many atrocities committed by the mercenary leader, but it is so good to learn about Mr. Fumi.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 10:06 pm

    Logo
    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    6h
    BREAKING:

    The Belarusian authorities have cut off the internet in the area of the main Wagner Group camp in the Tale Village in Belarus.

    Looks like Putin and Lukashenko are trying to stop the Wagner Group from communicating with each other and coordinating a quick response.

    nitter.net/visegrad24/status/1694433884853727699#m

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    5h
    Wagner PMC mercenaries are going to take revenge on Putin and Shoigu for the death of their leader. Calls for revenge against the killers fill the chat rooms of Prigozhin’s channels. Law enforcers of two regions have been raised on alert.

    nitter.net/Gerashchenko_en/status/1694449848169189519#m

  31. 31.

    Bupalos

    August 23, 2023 at 10:06 pm

    This “fake your death” thing is absolutely limited to a clueless, putin-centric, western view of the scene over there. Litteral belly laughs.

  32. 32.

    Bupalos

    August 23, 2023 at 10:11 pm

    k@Jay: wagner will not be able to coordinate a response. That’s laughable. The interesting thing is that Putashenko might be worried about it.

    Be a great time to enable Ukraine to deliver putin a full scale defeat. The long pause between the rebellion and assasination is full of meaning and information. All of which says GO! GO NOW! GO!

    Too bad the West doesn’t actually know what outcome it wants, only outcomes it doesn’t want.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 10:18 pm

    @oldster:

    The upshot is the same: there is no scenario on which Prig remains a player. Wagner is a thing of the past. Their mutiny was a farce, except for the pilots that they shot out of the air on their way to Moscow. And I’d say those pilots and their families have now evened the score

    It will be interesting to see what happens now. The MOD’s, other PMC’s big issues with Wagner, was that Wagner made them look like military idiots, made well over $2 billion USD a month from their “side” projects, Wagner Commanders and Contract soldiers were fiercely loyal to Wagner, and weirdly, so were their “customers” offshore.

    Somehow, despite their utter brutality towards civilians, enemies, shirkers, Wagner worked much better with their International Counterparts than the Ruzzian Military.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 10:23 pm

    @Bupalos:

    we will see what Wagner does. Most of Wagner still exists. Only in Syria, Ruzzia and occupied Ukraine has Wagner been “defanged”, and most of the “defanged” Wagnerites in Ruzzia are just on “vacation”.

    Keep in mind Rostov on Don, the deepest, fastest and most tactically  impactful penetration of the whole Ruzzian reinvasion of Ukraine, and it wasn’t lubed.

  35. 35.

    zhena gogolia

    August 23, 2023 at 10:24 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: FFS

  36. 36.

    twbrandt

    August 23, 2023 at 10:28 pm

    @Jay: a few days ago the US government told all Americans to get the hell out of Belarus. I wonder if they had some advance notice something was up.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 10:39 pm

    @twbrandt:

    What was going up was Exits to the West from Belarus are now down to 4, both land routes, no air routes and 3 way minor conflicts between Beloruzzia Security  Forces, Ruzzian Forces in Beloruzzia and remaining Wagner forces.

    So if TSHTF, getting out safely will be hard.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 10:41 pm

    MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦
    @Maks_NAFO_FELLA
    4h
    🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

    A memorial appeared at the PMC Wagner Center in St. Petersburg…

    nitter.net/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1694467590452555940#m

  39. 39.

    Mike in NC

    August 23, 2023 at 10:46 pm

    I have a 10 Ruble bill that says Putin’s Chef pulled a fast one and is still alive.

  40. 40.

    Frankensteinbeck

    August 23, 2023 at 10:46 pm

    @Roger Moore: ​

    It would at the very least require Prigozhin to have very solid information he was being targeted for it to make sense for him to fake his travel on the plane today.

    This is Russia, corruption capitol of the universe. Corrupt enough that you could pay someone running a SAM battery off to shoot down a plane and pretend the orders came from someone who was trying to please Putin. Still, that’s a bit of a stretch, even if possible.

  41. 41.

    twbrandt

    August 23, 2023 at 10:49 pm

    @Jay: and it sure seems like TS is HTF.

  42. 42.

    Jay

    August 23, 2023 at 11:15 pm

    @Mike in NC:

    so a US dime’s worth?

  43. 43.

    Ksmiami

    August 23, 2023 at 11:21 pm

    “Whose chopper is this? Zed’s. Zed’s dead baby.”

  44. 44.

    Bupalos

    August 23, 2023 at 11:43 pm

    Interesting dilemma when the the Kremlin needs to kill so openly to send a narrative message, and yet can’t, by reflex and rule, afford for a singular narrative to emerge that allows people to have a political opinion.

    Putin definitely killed the guy that crossed him, because that’s what happens. TAKE NOTE!!!.., but maybe it was really an accident, or maybe the Ukrainians did it, or maybe there was a traitor that killed him, or maybe a patriot, or maybe the CIA, or maybe……

  45. 45.

    glc

    August 23, 2023 at 11:50 pm

    @Jay: if you move quickly

  46. 46.

    dirge

    August 23, 2023 at 11:57 pm

    Assuming this is just what it looks like, I have a question I’m sure none of us can answer, but which might be worth thinking about anyway:

    Did Putin order the MOD to take out Prigozhin for him, and they delivered?

    Or did the MOD want to hit Prigozhin, demand Putin’s green light, and get it?

    Either seems plausible, but they indicate very different dynamics.

  47. 47.

    Bupalos

    August 23, 2023 at 11:59 pm

    @Frankensteinbeck: This is so far out there, and IMO fundamentally based on a misunderstanding of the Russian regime. This isn’t a more competent version of North Korea, and even if we believe that, Prigozhin certainly didn’t. He probably knows more about this regime than we do, even if he made a miscalculation within that horizon.

    He probably didn’t conduct a failed coup attempt. He threw a tantrum raising the specter of a military coup, because he wanted Putin the referee to issue a definitive ruling between him and the MOD clan, which we can call “Shoigu.” Because ultimately he thought he’d win that kind of appeal because he thought that made sense within his understanding of the regime.

    It appears he miscalculated, but he still probably knew more about that regime than we do and his actions probably reflect that.

  48. 48.

    Bupalos

    August 24, 2023 at 12:04 am

    @dirge: I’m not sure why you rule out that Putin was actually a spectator to all this, or had a much less defined level of involvement than either green-lighting or ordering. I don’t think it’s especially likely that he was “gifted” this by surprise, but it wouldn’t be outside the realm of normal possibilities in this regime.

  49. 49.

    dirge

    August 24, 2023 at 12:08 am

    @Bupalos: It appears he miscalculated…

    Which may suggest the latter of the possibilities I’m pondering:  that Prigozhin thought he still had Putin’s protection, but the landscape has shifted, and Shoigu now has enough pull to get that protection withdrawn.

  50. 50.

    Bupalos

    August 24, 2023 at 12:09 am

    @twbrandt: I wonder too about the very odd interview Lukashenko gave on Sunday. Feels like things are stirring politically over there in strange ways. We probably shouldn’t sleep on the immense pressure that maintaining the invasion puts on the regime.

    Slava Ukraine

  51. 51.

    dirge

    August 24, 2023 at 12:19 am

    @Bupalos: I’m not sure why you rule out that Putin was actually a spectator to all this…

    I wouldn’t rule it out.  As I framed it, “If this is just what it appears…” by which I mean if we assume it falls within the most likely set of scenarios, wherein Putin is meaningfully involved.

    Even then, there’s a quite plausible story in which Putin may not be the prime mover.  That would be significant for how we understand the stability of the regime, and its capacity to wage war in the medium to long term.

  52. 52.

    Bupalos

    August 24, 2023 at 12:22 am

    @dirge: I think boarding a plane and flying in Russian airspace (which he’s done multiple times since the tantrum) is more or less confirmation that Prigozhin thought he had security.

    Whether that security was believing Putin needed him, or that the relevant military assets were under his control or the control of an ally, or exactly what was going on… well, we don’t know. But it’s fair to say he must have believed there were good reasons to feel sufficiently safe.

    There is way more to glean and learn from asking the question “why did Prigozhin feel safe enough to do this?” than anything else. Because under the common understanding of this regime, of course he shouldn’t. What is the difference between how he understood the regime and how we do? And does the fact that he is dead mean we were more right than him? I guess we’ll think so, but I suspect not.

  53. 53.

    Bupalos

    August 24, 2023 at 12:31 am

    @dirge: Understood.

    Refreshing to see a perspective that embraces what we do not know about this regime, instead of the usual, Putin as all-knowing supervillain. Unfortunately Prigozhin dead will likely feed the myth.

  54. 54.

    Calouste

    August 24, 2023 at 12:36 am

    @Bupalos: I don’t think that parts of the MoD taking out people they don’t like using an air defense unit is a “gift” for Putin. He might be next.

  55. 55.

    dirge

    August 24, 2023 at 12:36 am

    @Bupalos:

    I think we’re asking more or less the same questions.  The only thing we can be sure of is that Prigozhin got a nasty surprise, because he wouldn’t have been in Russia if he expected anything like this.  Seems fairly likely that several other major players are surprised too.

    So something changed unpredictably.  Maybe it was Putin’s mind.  Maybe it was Shoigu’s influence.  Maybe a wizard did it.

    Regardless, there’s clearly something very important that we don’t know.

  56. 56.

    Jay

    August 24, 2023 at 12:36 am

    Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    11h
    Prigozhin’s last words were “What airdefense doing”
    Aug 23, 2023 · 5:32 PM UTC

    nitter.net/DarthPutinKGB/status/1694402206936768816#m

  57. 57.

    Chris

    August 24, 2023 at 12:39 am

    @Bupalos:

    He probably didn’t conduct a failed coup attempt. He threw a tantrum raising the specter of a military coup, because he wanted Putin the referee to issue a definitive ruling between him and the MOD clan, which we can call “Shoigu.” Because ultimately he thought he’d win that kind of appeal because he thought that made sense within his understanding of the regime.

    This seems… very optimistic of him if true?

    People like Putin don’t want their underlings to be self-starting attention-grabbing overachievers who make these kinds of waves, let alone try to force their bosses into these kinds of decisions.  Makes them look like they’ve got ideas above their station.  They want gray, dull, boring, dependable yes-men.  If you make him the referee and force him to choose between the former and the latter, they’re not going to pick the former.

  58. 58.

    Jay

    August 24, 2023 at 12:39 am

    @Bupalos:

    @dirge:

    Prigozhin’s aircraft were en route to Saint Petersburg, where Wagner’s massive headquarters were. And it had most of the senior staff onboard.

  59. 59.

    dirge

    August 24, 2023 at 12:53 am

    @Jay: most of the senior staff onboard

    Just unbelievable operational security malpractice, having everybody on one plane.  Perfectly ordinary companies facing no particular threats have policies against doing that.  A very strange thing for Wagner to willingly do.

    I’ve got no explanation, or even speculation.  That’s just weird.

  60. 60.

    Jay

    August 24, 2023 at 1:10 am

    @dirge:

    2 aircraft. The second safely landed. That one was an Illushin, that maybe had as many as 60 people on board.

    Prigozhin obviously thought he was “safe”, He may have been given some guarantee.

    Given the failure of the Ruzzian MOD in taking over or replacing Wagner Ops, (other than Occupied Ukraine and Syria, where the Ruzzian Army basically arrested and locked up all the Wagner staff and fighters), due to the loyalty of Wagner fighters and Customers to the PMC,

    he and senior staff were probably en route to a meeting with the Ruzzian MOD in Saint Petersburg to “negotiate” a continued place for Wagner in Moscow’s Little Green Men plausible deniability operations.

  61. 61.

    Jay

    August 24, 2023 at 1:21 am

    Saint Javelin
    @saintjavelin
    Aug 22
    Putin removed Sergei Surovikin from his position as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
    Aug 22, 2023 · 3:12 PM UTC

    nitter.net/saintjavelin/status/1694004525571391587#m

    Your Gorilla Friend
    @SecretNofun
    12h
    New guy brings immediate results.

    nitter.net/SecretNofun/status/1694398202730983485#m

  62. 62.

    dirge

    August 24, 2023 at 1:25 am

    @Jay: he and senior staff were probably en route to a meeting with the Ruzzian MOD…

    Seems likely.  Still, why isn’t the second in command on the other plane?  Again, that’s a standard precaution for, say, a couple guys running a largish plumbing business, on their way to a convention in Vegas.  That Wagner ignores it seems to demand some sort of explanation, even if they’ve gotten assurances of some kind.

  63. 63.

    Jay

    August 24, 2023 at 1:42 am

    @dirge:

    “When you are rich, powerful and famous, they let you do it”.

    BTW an Embrauer Business Jet is way more comfortable than an Illushin.

    Mercedes back seat vs. Yugo.

    Makes no difference either way, everybody was on the “whack list”. And there are more to come.

  64. 64.

    Steeplejack

    August 24, 2023 at 2:54 am

    Posted without comment.

    (Haven’t read the thread. Sorry if this is a duplicate.)

  65. 65.

    Chris Johnson

    August 24, 2023 at 7:52 am

    @Jay: Live by the ‘stoke stochastic terrorism’, die by the ‘stoke stochastic terrorism’.

    This is why NOT to wage this type of war. It works but it’s a devil’s bargain and you’re not immune. It’s like Geneva Conventions. It’s not that people just agree to lose, they’re agreeing not to open Pandora’s box. Putin held power and conquered so much, but it turns to ash and shit because it must.

  66. 66.

    HeartlandLiberal

    August 24, 2023 at 8:00 am

    Prigozhin should have stayed away from that window in the sky.

    Just sayin’.

  67. 67.

    Geminid

    August 24, 2023 at 8:25 am

    Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) tweeted some interesting information this morning. One item was about a report from a Ukrainian source that a small party of commandos had conducted an operation in Crimea in the vicinity of the destroyed S-400 battery, and returned safely.

    Another was that since Ukraine’s sea-drone attack on the port of Novorossysk(sp?), Russian oil exports through the Black Sea have been “almost paralyzed” according to Bloomberg News. Someone suggested that Putin may need to ask Erdogan and the UN to sponsor a Black Sea Oil Initiative.

    Two other items were more symbolic in importance: Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar Industries donated a TB-2 drone to Ukraine on its Independence Day, and Turkiye’s new helicopter/drone carrier Andalou was seen steaming next to the USS Gerald Ford in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

  68. 68.

    Chris

    August 24, 2023 at 9:04 am

    @dirge:

    Their overconfidence was their weakness, as another fascist with a name starting with P was once told.

  69. 69.

    Bill Arnold

    August 24, 2023 at 11:37 am

    Piece that reports on interesting shifts in the Russian school curriculum, and general narrative, related to Russian Imperialism.
    What on earth is a Russian ‘country-civilization’? – Anton Barbashin on how Moscow is again trying to come up with new and nebulous euphemisms to justify imperial control (Anton Barbashin, 23 August 2023)
    Sample:

    In other words, «country-civilization» is a quality of Russian governance that enshrines the peoples that live in Russia with a special spiritual value and a right for a «constructive civilizational role» of Russia over the wider Eurasian space. These tropes are reminiscent of 19th century European debates about the burden of a civilizational role and colonization rights, as well as taking a cue from Russia’s own thinkers like Ivan Ilyin, who dwelt on the idea of a Russian man’s burden.
    Commenting on the issue, Russia’s senior officials tried to make it clear that a Russian «country-civilization» is nothing like the European Empires of the past, claiming that «We are the only continent that wasn’t colonized». As the deputy head of Council of Federation Konstantin Kosachev insists, many nations have tried to colonize Russia — Poles, Swedes, French, and Germans — but all failed. He does concede that Russia was colonized by the Mongol Horde, but «only the territory not the people». The Russian own colonization of vast areas is skipped over, as he asserts that «90% of Russian population feel themselves as part of one nation».

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