Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No Justins, No Peace

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

American History and Black History can not be separated.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

T R E 4 5 O N

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Books are my comfort food!

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 549: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 549: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night Anonymous at Work asked:

The US-UA debate about the counter-offensive has me wondering about US military training and war-gaming.  Does the US regularly conduct war-games where the US commanders in charge of the US forces either lack air superiority or face an opponent with air superiority?  Or are commanders only faced with such a prospect when they are the “opposing force”?

Not to my knowledge unless something has changed recently as I’ve not been involved in one of these exercises in several years. My experience when I was involved in them is that while complications would be injected into the scenario to make things harder, to make commanders and their staffs have to think on their feet and improvise, these experiential learning experiences work off the assumption that we will have air superiority. I can also tell you, from personal experience – as in I was actually physically assaulted by the dipshit in question* – that when you find a lose thread in the scenario and pull on it the scenario writers get really upset. These things are scripted and the observer controllers and mustangs and the other people involved in running them do not like it if anyone involved goes off script. You may all recall the 2002 war game known as Millennium Challenge. In that exercise the USMC 3 star, Lt. Gen. Van Riper, went off script as the head of the opposing forces (OPFOR) in the exercise.

In the first few days of the exercise, using surprise and unorthodox tactics, the wily 64-year-old Vietnam veteran sank most of the US expeditionary fleet in the Persian Gulf, bringing the US assault to a halt.

What happened next will be familiar to anyone who ever played soldiers in the playground. Faced with an abrupt and embarrassing end to the most expensive and sophisticated military exercise in US history, the Pentagon top brass simply pretended the whole thing had not happened. They ordered their dead troops back to life and “refloated” the sunken fleet. Then they instructed the enemy forces to look the other way as their marines performed amphibious landings. Eventually, Van Riper got so fed up with all this cheating that he refused to play any more. Instead, he sat on the sidelines making abrasive remarks until the three-week war game – grandiosely entitled Millennium Challenge – staggered to a star-spangled conclusion on August 15, with a US “victory”.

If the Pentagon thought it could keep its mishap quiet, it underestimated Van Riper. A classic marine – straight-talking and fearless, with a purple heart from Vietnam to prove it – his retirement means he no longer has to put up with the bureaucratic niceties of the defence department. So he blew the whistle.

“Nothing was learned from this,” he says. “A culture not willing to think hard and test itself does not augur well for the future.” The exercise, he says, was rigged almost from the outset.

Institutionalization and socialization to that institutionalization has always been a vulnerability. We create artificially narrow boundaries and limits for our policies and strategies that then negatively effect creative and critical thinking. Which is why we’re in a world war and we continue to refuse to admit we’re in a world war.

Anonymous at Work’s question leads to a related question that comes from a conversation I had with Cole yesterday. He called to ask what was going on, is there any real progress? My short answer was yes, but this is currently a number of battles of attrition fought along a very long line by highly motivated Ukrainians against dug in Russian forces. As a result it is going to look like not much is happening until something does happen. And when something big does happen, then it will look unexpected.

This is a very different type of warfare that anyone in the US and in most of our NATO allies are used to. I have written it before and I’m sure I will write it again, but the Ukrainians are fighting a war that no senior leader in the US would ever contemplate waging. And, as a result, this is what is causing the frustration between the Ukrainian senior military leadership and their US counterparts. There is not a single US general officer/flag officer (GO/FO) currently serving who has ever fought an interstate war of any consequence. If we decide to be gracious and state that the initial phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) in 2003 was an interstate war, which it was, it was so lopsided that the US rolled over and up the Iraqi military so quickly that even with the mopping up this phase of the war was over inside of two to three weeks. And then the insurgency began. There is not a GO/FO in the US who has any real experience with fighting interstate wars. Sure, they’ve all read the right books, they’ve been in the right seminars at the senior leader colleges (war colleges) and for the Army the Combined Joint Forces Land Component Commander’s Course (C/JFLCC), both of which I’ve taught lessons in. Similarly we have no senior NCOs who have any real experience with fighting this type of war either. This goes right to the heart of General Zaluzhnyi’s frustrations that we highlighted last night. As well as that of Ukrainian personnel going through the American training that we’ve covered several times. There is no one currently serving in the US military with any real experience with an interstate war. All of them have been trained and educated and gone through experiential learning with the notion that they’ll have air superiority, proper logistics, all the other bells and whistles that we spend so much on every year. As a result, the US’s senior military leaders are talking past the Ukrainian ones. They’re not doing it to be mean or because they’re not good at their jobs, they’re doing it because they just don’t have the actual experience to really understand what the Ukrainian military is doing and the conditions they’re doing it under. I’m not surprised by this, but I am disappointed. We tried to teach these now senior leaders to do better. We failed. This was the primary focus of my work for almost a decade. I failed. And the Ukrainians are now paying the price.

* The primary scenario writer I’m referring to was a blowhard, know nothing retired Army colonel. After he grabbed me by the arm and pushed me into the wall and started yelling at me just outside the III Corps command bridge at what was then called FT Hood – I actually waived the MP NCO who was at the security checkpoint off – I then went and let the senior colonel in the corps know what had happened. I was assigned as both the Commanding General’s Cultural Advisor/Senior Civilian Advisor and that colonel’s deputy (they had to put my office somewhere). Anyhow before he could do anything about it, the idiot lit into the colonel who was the corps Officer in Charge of Intelligence. In front of the Boss. The Boss had him kicked off the base and banned from reentering. Had I not waived the MP off he would have been arrested for assaulting me on a Federal installation. Good times.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Only those states have true strength that can defend their sky and honor their aviation – address by the President of Ukraine

26 August 2023 – 20:45

Dear Ukrainians!

For 30 years now, on the last Saturday of August, Ukrainian aviation workers, both military and civilian, have been celebrating their professional holiday.

Pilots, engineers, everyone who works in the aviation industry, in aircraft production, in air transportation. Everyone who makes Ukraine one of the powerful countries. Because only those states have true strength that can defend their sky and honor their aviation.

Now, this year, Ukraine has to accomplish all the necessary tasks for F-16s to appear in our sky. This will be a new level of Ukrainian military aviation. And this will bring the return of civil aviation to the Ukrainian sky closer, because it will bring victory closer and give Ukraine more security.

There are a lot of reasons for congratulations on this Aviation Day. There is much to be thankful for. And I am thankful. We are all thankful.

Unfortunately, these words alone are not enough today.

Yesterday, a disaster occurred in the sky over Zhytomyr region. Three pilots died. Among them was Andriy Pilshchykov, call sign Juice. He was a Ukrainian officer, one of those who helped our country a lot. A lot! My condolences to the family and friends, to everyone who knew the guys.

The investigation into what happened is ongoing. It’s too early to talk about the details. Of course, all the circumstances will be clarified. Of course, Ukraine will never forget anyone who defended Ukraine’s free sky. May they always be remembered!

I would like to say a few more words today.

First of all, our warriors. In the Bakhmut sector, all those who are fighting in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka. The Avdiivka sector. Maryinka. The Melitopol sector, in particular, Robotyne. Thank you for your fortitude, warriors!

Second, our partners. As of today, more than 20 countries have already joined the G7 declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine. Our team continues its work. Now there are almost 30 in total, including the G7. There will be more.

We have started negotiations with Canada on a bilateral document on security guarantees. Earlier we started with the United States and the United Kingdom. This will give Ukraine much more opportunities. I am grateful to each and every person who works for this!

And the third is our emotions. We should not let our emotions take over anywhere or in anything. Especially between us, within society, between Ukrainians. Please take care of each other. And have time to thank everyone who helps the defense, everyone who helps Ukraine. We are defending our country, moving forward in an absolutely rational manner and bringing our victory – the victory of Ukraine – closer.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

A tragic loss. On August 25th, two L-39 military jets collided over the Zhytomyr region. Three pilots of the Ukrainian Air Force lost their lives. One of them was Major Andrii Pilshchykov, a 2nd Class pilot and a recipient of the Order of Courage, 3rd Class, known by the callsign ‘JUICE’. We extend our deepest condolences to the families of the departed. We are grateful for their service. They will be remembered both in the skies and on the ground.

I’ve included Major Pilshcykov’s tweets or quotes tweeted by others in previous updates over the past year and a half. This type of accident is significant for the Ukrainians given how constrained they are in regard to their aviation assets.

Lord, guard and guide the men fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)

The cost 2:

12-year-old Yana Stepanenko, who lost both of her legs in April of last year in a russian missile strike on the Kramatorsk railway station, is returning to Ukraine.

Over the course of a year, she underwent prosthetic fitting and rehabilitation in the United States. Until she turns 18, she will need to change her prosthetics every year.

Despite this, Yana is living a full life—attending school, riding a bicycle, and traveling. Recently, Yana became the face of the UNBROKEN KIDS campaign, which is raising funds for rehabilitation equipment and prosthetics for children with war-related injuries in Ukraine.

The cost 3:

Podoly, Kharkiv Oblast:

Robotyne:

Here’s what it looks on the map:

Indications & Warnings
A NOTE ON SOURCES AND METHODS:

Thanks to the many readers who have put Indications & Warnings above 160K followers. I’ve been asked some questions on some of our later maps and would like to answer for everyone.

Why do the lines on the map change?

The front line in any battle is difficult to judge. Zones of control and the line of contact are highly changeable. The Zero Line may or may not be where the enemy takes you under fire. A place that was ‘safe’ yesterday may not be safe today. Every battle space is dynamic. Lines on the map are estimates.

Indications & Warnings monitors multiple sources and attempts to ’triangulate’ the Zero Line and update this assessment hourly. Source reporting varies daily, and the Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) is depicted on the preponderance of current reports.

Your maps are wrong! [Fill in the Blank] says so!

Many of the ‘gold standard’ daily maps, (Deep State, LiveUMap, ISW) vary daily. Sometimes they depict a ‘Zero Line’ that differs by as much as 10-15 kilometers.

We base our reportage on based heavily on the twice daily reports of the Ukrainian General Staff. We also use an ‘average’ of the larger sites, augmented by local combat sources, as well as geolocated combat photos and video.

Other daily maps are different. You must be wrong!

Indications & Warnings, to my knowledge, is the only account that attempts to report battle spaces at the granular level– often based on squad and platoon level contacts.

The Institute for the Study of War reports at a ’Nation-wide” altitude. We report on small spaces, within the length of their “lines”. Their scales are 100 Km, ours are often 100 meters.

Indications & Warnings provides close ups of individual battle spaces. We might not always get the latest reports, but we constantly update, are happy to reassess our maps and are equally happy to receive information from new front line sources.

You sometimes show combat beyond the Zero Line—why?

A major component of our reportage is the plotting of Russian artillery strikes. These are always indicative of the presence of UKR troops. Russians don’t shell their own positions. These artillery strikes demonstrate that the ‘agreed upon’ front is porous, and that UKR conducts many raids, probes and patrols beyond the zero line.

Why do other maps show such different lines of contact?

The Line of Contact and the Forward Edge of the Battle Area are matters of opinion– and are constantly in motion. They certainly vary on a daily basis. When local combat sources tell me where the zero line is– I weigh their reports more heavily than ‘other maps’.

Both sides conduct attacks, probes and strikes ‘across the lines. We report ‘crossline’ operations conducted by both UKR and RU units. The ‘Zero Line” is somewhere between the last two reported contacts.

I’m unfollowing you!

No account should be your only source of information. Follow as many map providers as you can. Compare their posts. Go to http://Opentopomap.com and download topographic maps of the battle spaces and consult the terrain yourself. This will allow you to get a better idea of what the front is like.

High ground is important. So are roads and junctions. Find out where they are. Armies move on roads, and open terrain is a killing field. Look at the top maps and determine where troops are likely to be– and where they are likely avoid. This will help you to assess other maps.

[Fill in the Blank] says you’re a… [fill in curse word].

There are a few ‘personalities’ in the mapping game. Some of them are bullies. Good luck to them and their sock puppet accounts. Indications & Warnings is living rent free their heads.

We don’t feel its necessary to attack or criticize other accounts, and we don’t engage in ad hominem attacks. We’re not in a zero sum game. We encourage you to follow other accounts. Get as much info as you can– and make your own approximations.

We’re about information, not personalities. We get trolled. It’s gonna happen. Right now, based on daily views, negative comments on our account run about at 0.000078 % of traffic. That’s [wait for it]….. 78/100,000ths of one percent of views. Pretty much infinitesimal. Opinions are going to vary. Especially from people who are having a bad week.

Why we do things differently:

To my knowledge, we are one of the only accounts who have been reporting on individual battles since the beginning of the invasion. We report on the most changeable and variable aspects of battle and do our best to get it right.

We update most of our battle space maps daily–using UKR and RU sources, and frequently provide hourly updates on individual points of contact.

Many, many thanks to all the readers of I &W and to the many hundreds who tune in to Bullet Points on
@MriyaReport
. Thank you especially to the brave front line sources from whom I’m honored to receive reports. I am always striving to make Indications & Warnings better, and I appreciate your help.

@finntrasan

I know some of you all have Wagner questions, questions regarding the white supremacist Rusich militia, etc. I’ll try to get to them tomorrow.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

97Comments

  1. 1.

    RepubAnon

    I recall a news article about a US Marine exercise where they practiced being on a Pacific Island with little air support or resupply, being forced to live off the land and improvise. (Sort of a 21st century Guadalcanal scenario).

  2. 2.

    gwangung

    Hm. The UA/USA “argument” seems like “fighting the last war” writ large.

    And it doesn’t auger well for certain types of future conflicts the US military could be involved in (unless civilian leadership knows well enough NOT to engage in them in the first place*).

    (*certain not to apply to the majority of Republican politicians for the foreseeable future).

    ETA: Second!

  3. 3.

    Van Buren

    I had never heard the Van Riper story before. The whole thing is indicative of a sick institution. I hope things have changed for the better since.

  4. 4.

    oldster

    If Lt Gen van RIper is still following the news today, he must feel vindicated by seeing Ukraine’s flotilla of small drones sinking, damaging, and paralyzing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

    I’m glad to see Tatarigami sounding a bit more upbeat. Let’s hope that the new headquarters of the 76th can be located and introduced to Mr. Himars as soon as possible.

    Thanks again, Adam, for your daily updates. Unless I miss my guess, you are not only providing a service to the BJ readership. You are also making a personal statement of solidarity with Ukraine, to the extent that you can from an ocean away, standing watch with them everyday through the ordeal. You are honoring a debt of good faith towards a people, an army, and a leader whom you admire.  In my own ineffectual way, I stand with you and them.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    US military leadership has no idea what it means to fight an existential war. Every war in their lifetimes has been a war of choice, fought in a place not their home. If/when they lost, they’d pack up and go home. Ukrainians are fighting for their very lives and homes; if they lose, the nation is dead. They have no other place to go.

  7. 7.

    Jay

    Dmitri
    @wartranslated
    14h
    Rusich unit is “pausing” its participation in the SMO after one of its founders was arrested in Finland. The detained Yan Petrovsky is a very dangerous criminal who was known for executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war. He knows a lot, including about Milchakov and the rest. I highly doubt the Russian govt would want to get involved with protecting such an individual.

    https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1695352089470190025#m

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    It would certainly be interesting to hear the responses from US officials who have expressed frustration with Ukraine’s progress or methods if you were able to interview them and pose the issues you often mention here. And from the POV of someone who doesn’t have any expertise, it sure seems like the Ukrainians are doing the God damned best they can with what they have and what we and other countries have given them piecemeal.

    Nice photo of Zelenskyy with Shevchenko with a framed set of photos and shirt from the Game4Ukraine.

    Thank you as always, Adam. One day, you should write a memoir. You know, in all your free time.

  9. 9.

    blindyone

    Hey Adam. I’m mostly a reader/lurker here, and have been for years now. I’ve appreciated the security expertise you’ve added to discussions in the past. Now these Ukraine posts are something I look forward to every day. I spent a few days in Kyiv back when Ukraine was still part of the CCCP. It was a beautiful city with very friendly people. But as an American traveling alone, I was definitely followed by young Putin types. (Pretty sure he was in East Germany at that time) I’m obviously glad the Iron Curtain is a thing of the past and I’m cheering on Ukraine in its struggle to remain free and independent.

  10. 10.

    Villago Delenda Est

    They ordered their dead troops back to life and “refloated” the sunken fleet.

    What the Japanese did when they wargamed the assault on Midway.

  11. 11.

    Mallard Filmore

    I was wondering why the “enemy” in the battle exercises were not contributing to the knowlege of how to do war. Marines storming the beach at Camp Pendleton, well you have to practice without opposition.

    Doin\g a full scale test of doctrine is something else. It looks more like a Soviet era trial.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @gwangung: Despite what the people from the Combined Arms Center at Leavenworth say, the US Army is NOT a learning organization!

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome

    I’m also trying to make up for past sins. I was the senior civilian advisor who told the US’s theater army commander – my boss – and his senior staff back in 2014 that no one was going to risk a war with another nuclear power (Russia) over Crimea. And while that was the technically correct answer, as well as the textbook one, it was both strategically and morally wrong. And while it is true that neither my boss, nor his (the Supreme Allied Commander Europe) had the authority to order anything, what I told them was what the Obama administration decided on. If I could go back in time I would have advised that we needed to bloody Putin’s nose and knock him on his ass. That if we did that he’d stop probing for mush because his bayonet had finally hit steel. I was wrong then. It most likely made no difference. But it doesn’t lesson my moral culpability.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    Tatarigami_UA
    @Tatarigami_UA
    1h
    Exceptional thread and profound insights into the counter-offensive in the South by @solonko1648 (Olexandr Solon’ko), servicemember of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In his analysis, he sheds light on the situation, discussing both the challenges and achievements.

    Translation:

    Much has been written about the battles in the South. I wouldn’t say that this is the case where it’s better to see once (or multiple times) than to hear/read about it many times. Especially through the eyes of the frontline units. A thread about battles from the perspective of aerial reconnaissance:

    Environment. Steppe. Fields, tree lines. Slight elevations and dips, villages, small rivers. Minefields. Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing.

    Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there’s something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it’s necessary to determine the priority of the target

    There’s a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything’s been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible

    There has been a great deal of talk about fortifications and minefields. Every tree line has been dug up. On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We’re not just talking about trenches. There’s an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even undeground tunnels in some places
    In each tree line, there’s a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more “sophisticated” ones, all lying in wait for infantry.

    Once again, it’s crucial to emphasize that we’re specifically discussing a system of trenches, interconnected by passageways and pathways. These pathways facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition. As for what remains unexcavated, it’s mined. All of this must be navigated to make progress forward.

    For those who are “overly smart” and believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took an incredibly long time to drive the Russians out of the village of Robotyne, they must have missed the defense system that needed to be overcome in order to push the russians away from the Mariupol highway and gradually approach the village, encircle it, and finally seize control. Truly, a monumental task has been accomplished.

    The russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. Paths are cleared for ingress, and sappers gradually clear the area.

    Frequently, the hidden “surprises” detonate during shelling, triggered by fires that start due to the shelling (weeds, shrubs, and trees catch fire, setting off tripwires). At times, we ourselves discover and call in sappers to clear specific areas.

    There’s much talk about armored vehicle losses, but the issue of initial setbacks is overlooked. In the long run, it’s impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, even due to the enemy’s advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

    There’s much talk about armored vehicle losses, I’ll skip the topic of initial setbacks. In the long run, it’s impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, especially due to the enemy’s advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

    These actions are justified by the fact that they save lives. I spoke with a soldier who survived two direct hits on a Bradley during shelling. Even the most critically damaged equipment is recovered and taken for repairs. You can replace a piece of metal, even if it’s expensive, but you can’t repair a human life

    Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery.

    They hunt for evacuation teams – both vehicles and stations. Right under our noses, they hit an armored vehicle, and an evacuation vehicle arrived for the guys. They had to maneuver in a tight spot, moving very slowly on a narrow road, avoiding going off-road into a mined field. Taking risks as well. Fortunately, they managed to get them out.

    KAB’s are one of the biggest fears. The russians use them extensively. I can’t speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. They don’t hesitate to simply fire on roads. Forward defenses in settlements are constantly under shelling.

    The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB’s. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles.

    The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. Only a palisade remained, and a well-made trench ceased to be usable.

    The russians use a standard tactic for their armor. The route to the firing position is determined, usually in a way that keeps the vehicles under visual cover of the tree lines and eventually positions them in an open space for shooting. They quickly expend their ammunition and retreat

    Vehicle cannot be completely concealed. Dust clouds are visible during movement, and the vehicles can be seen shifting between tree lines, while drones provide visibility as well. The main task here is to execute the firing mission quickly enough to prevent artillery targeting or counterattacks using FPV or ATGMs.

    I understand why the russians are intensively butthurt due to the loss of the village with six streets. They put in significant effort to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing. Defending is easier according to all norms. On the other hand, we’re putting in a tremendous effort to break through. And when we succeed, it shows that our efforts are paying off

    Thank you for your attention. I might continue sharing in the future. Meanwhile, I invite you to follow on Facebook and TG (Telegram): facebook.com/osolonko

    t.me/silukr/122

    Postscript: The original thread can be found here: nitter.net/solonko1648/stat…

    If you’re interested in updates, I highly recommend following him.

    Translation by @Tatarigami_UA

    https://nitter.net/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695563964158025974#m

  15. 15.

    Omnes Omnibus

    The army has a tendency to promote officers who are competent within conventional bounds. Most situations that soldiers face can be accomplished by applying tried and true methods. Everyone knows what to do and how to do it. One is seen as creative if one can apply a small variation on the standard method to a slightly different situation. People who are good at this are often not good at suddenly rethinking things and innovating. The kind of people who would be innovative either get bored early and leave or end up as bitter majors with an alcohol problem. There are a few exceptions to this. H.R. McMaster (whatever you may think of him as a Trump admin figure) was one. He was lucky in that he was the hero of the Persian Gulf War which gave him some leeway. His criticisms of army command and doctrine meant that despite being the most successful armor commander of his generation at several command levels. he was passed over for his first star several times. The army generally rewards conventional, above average people who have made any mistakes. The make they system work. The unconventional and the brilliant are a pain to have around.

  18. 18.

    Anonymous At Work

    Thank you for addressing my question.  I didn’t have Millennium Challenge explicitly in mind for how war-games blow apart if “Untitled Mountainous Middle Eastern Hostile Power with Long Coastline” [Iran] and the US Navy got into a shooting war, but yeah, I’m familiar with what happened when the US Navy encountered asymmetrical warfare.

    Reading over the US and UA remarks, I thought I saw those assumptions in the US side that could make an attempt to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan very costly for the US.

    How do you break that vicious cycle of implicit assumptions about our military’s superiority?  That’s the real issue for the US, and will help in future scenarios where we are rendering aid in more ambiguous situations?

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: As you know as well, if not better than I do, it took a herculean effort from several of his mentors and supporters to just get him that first star.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: To answer your question: you keep people like me around who are not afraid to firmly and forcefully, but politely push back when necessary. Unfortunately, there isn’t much appetite for that these days.

  22. 22.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Adam L Silverman: “No one was willing to risk nuclear war” over any one cut but Putin wanted Ukraine dead and was willing to use 1000 cuts.  Probably add a redline of “Each acre of Ukraine will give us permission to train Navy SEALS on Russian oligarch yachts.”  Now, if only we could get Britain out of Tory hands and get Ukrainian refugees into Londongrad housing.

  23. 23.

    Carlo Graziani

    Part of the disagreement on force employment appears to be over the question of whether the AFU are too dispersed, fighting pitched battles over 4 fronts instead of concentrating a major thust in a decisive theatre.

    This goes to a hallowed principle of military strategy, “concentration of force,” which, as general principles go, is certainly a desirable characteristic of offensive action. No doubt it is uppermost in the mind of those US DOD officials who appear to be appalled that the winter-spring build up is not being used in the concentrated manner that they had imagined would be the case.

    But the thing is, one has to ask whether throwing more forces into the fight at Robotyne (say) would help speed the advance of those forces. If the additional forces cannot fight a coordinated battle according to the combined arms schemas that DOD uses to organize its thinking, then the answer is likely “no”, and rather than concentration, the result would likely be congestion, and logistical resource contention.

    The AFU seem to be managing the battle satisfactorily so far, making steady progress (at a much faster rate than the Russians managed at any time post March 2022), and steadily rotating forces in and out of contact, preserving unit cohesion and safeguarding combat experience. They don’t seem to be looking for a clever, casualty-evading stroke, but rather are applying steady, remorseless pressure on the Russians, in anticipation that somewhere, sometime, they will break.

    And Adam has it exactly right: such breaks come as a surprise, in unanticipated places, times, and manners, and when they do suddenly everything is changed.

  24. 24.

    Anoniminous

    @Van Buren:

    The Millennium Challenge 2002 is notorious among people who get off on war porn think about Things Military in their spare time.  As Gary Beecher, aka War Nerd, put it:

    “With nothing more than a few “small boats and aircraft,” van Ripen managed to sink most of the US fleet in the Persian Gulf.”

  25. 25.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
      Yep. My guess is if he didn’t have the Silver Star on his chect already, he would not have gotten any on his shoulders.

    I think that one on thing that might benefit the US Army is an adventure training program like the British have. Something where officers who are largely surplus to requirements in a garrison environment can plan and mount expeditions paid for by the army. It would keep some people around and would put others in the environments where they had to adapt to new and difficult situations. Something for the eccentrics to do until you need them. Not everyone can find meaning in life doing PPT slides for Division staff call or making sure the REMR is perfect.

  26. 26.

    Bill Arnold

    @Jay:
    Re KABs (guided bombs), what is the public information on the state of Ukrainian mobile GLONASS (Russian GPS) jamming?
    (Searches don’t find much commercially available on the public web.)

  27. 27.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: The Army would benefit from it. Unfortunately, every attempt to get the Army to actually do something innovative over the almost 20 years I’ve been working for the military in different capacities has made it very clear that even if you could get it approved, the Army would fight it tooth and nail, and it would be scrapped at the first opportunity.

  28. 28.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Despite what the people from the Combined Arms Center at Leavenworth say, the US Army is NOT a learning organization!

    Army was a fooked up organization in Vietnam from an infantryman’s point of view. General Officers didn’t have a clue what was happening at the squad, platoon, company level and woefully misunderstood the motivation of the NVA and VC. Doesn’t sound like they have learned much since that era other than having newer toys with which to play​​

    *the best thing I learned was how to heat C Rations over a chunk of burning C-4

  29. 29.

    kalakal

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    That’s pretty much the theme of Dixon’s On the psychology of military incompetence. It’s somewhat dated but he placed a heavy emphasis on the difference of the qualities required for success in a peacetime vs wartime army.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: Actually, I knew that it was strategically the right thing to do. But I went with the technically correct answer anticipating that would be what the Obama administration national command authority would go with. I knew better and played it safe even though it wouldn’t have made any difference.

  34. 34.

    japa21

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
      One thing I’ve learned in life is being proved correct in retrospect is not necessarily to one’s advantage. People don’t like being wrong to begin with, and they hate even more being reminded of it.

  39. 39.

    Adam L Silverman

    @japa21: My job was to tell the Old Man what he needed to know, not what he wanted to hear. I don’t think what I told him was what he wanted to hear, but I definitely didn’t tell him what he needed to know. I left him without the strategic conceptual and contextual ammo he would have needed to push back should he have chosen to do. I failed that day. I have to live with that failure.

  40. 40.

    oldster

    “…what I told them was what the Obama administration decided on. If I could go back in time I would have advised that we needed to bloody Putin’s nose and knock him on his ass. That if we did that he’d stop probing for mush because his bayonet had finally hit steel. I was wrong then. It most likely made no difference. But it doesn’t lesson my moral culpability.”

    I’m going to disagree with you here, because from the standpoint of the Obama administration there was one overarching reason not to get involved:

    We did not have a credible counter-party in Ukraine. There was no Zelenskyy. There was no unity. There was no one with whom the US and NATO could cooperate to bloody Putin’s nose.

    At the level of national politics, Ukraine was still a mess — thanks of course to Putin, and to Paul Manafort, and to a host of other people who should rot in hell. But whoever was to blame for it, the fact remained: there was not a government of national unity that was squarely opposed to Russia, and able to act against Russia as a unified government, army, and nation.

    And that is an indispensable precondition for successful US involvement.  We should never attempt to “help” a foreign nation do something unless they want it more than we do. Otherwise, we wind up in Iraq, we wind up in Afghanistan, attempting to prop up corrupt and unpopular regimes that cannot act effectively, because they lack a popular mandate. No one thanks us, because too few want us there.

    The people of Ukraine, in 2014, did not yet squarely and unanimously want to sever its ties with Russia, and push them out of Crimea. Some did, but some didn’t; and the political leadership was equally divided between patriots and quislings.

    Biden can do things for Ukraine now because Zelenskyy leads a unified nation. Obama could not do those things in 2014 with a fragmented and dysfunctional government in Kyiv. To intervene would have done no good.

    So, I think Obama’s decision, sad to say, was the right one. And he may have arrived at it for reasons independent of what a junior military advisor suggested.

  43. 43.

    Anoniminous

    @Omnes Omnibus: ​

    Winfield Scott. :-)

    Prior to the Civil War neither Lee or Grant held a General level command

    And now I see it was rhetorical …. oh well

  46. 46.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @kalakal: Jim Dunnigan (of SPI fame) has made the same argument, that there are “peacetime officers” and “wartime officers”, the wartime guys often have real problems living within the peacetime bureaucratic setting.  A bunch of generals got the boot in the early years of WWII because they were peacetime types and couldn’t handle even maneuvers with no live fire.

  47. 47.

    HinTN

    @Adam L Silverman: By far! Chernow’s biography made it pretty clear but Grant’s Memoirs really laid his thinking out there.

    As an aside, what could we have done in 2014 to introduce some steel to Putin’s probing?

  48. 48.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: I believe you grossly underestimate the degree of national unity that existed post-Maidan. The army may not have been ready then, but the polity was.

  49. 49.

    Anoniminous

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    It wouldn’t have helped.

    Rule 1 of the Internet: any thing you write that can possibly be misconstrued will be.

    Rule 2 of the Internet:  any thing you write that can not possibly be misconstrued will be.

  50. 50.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Apologies for giving you too little rank — that probably rankles.

    (Get it? “rank- les”? little ranks?)

    Anyhow, when you’re my age everyone seems junior, so don’t take it personally.
    All of us here benefit from your over-active guilt feelings, so thanks again.

  51. 51.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Villago Delenda Est: Then there were people like me and my little coterie of friends.  You know the term ROAD (Retired On Active Duty, for those not familiar.  It refers to people nearing retirement with no further promotions on the cards who do the absolute minimum to coast to the end of their 20.).  We coined the term TOAD (Tourist On Active Duty).  Government funded trip to Europe?  It would be criminal not to take advantage, right?  We knew we weren’t staying in past our initial commitments, so jockeying for promotion was unnecessary.

  53. 53.

    Yutsano

    @Adam L Silverman: ​Adam, you can’t change what was done. It is obvious you have learned from it. Your next step is to do what you can to keep another mistake like that happening. And hopefully you can do something a bit more direct for the Ukrainians but since your work is OPSEC we’ll leave it at that.

    Oh and if LTG Van Riper isn’t in Hades regrouping* maybe we should send an old Dawg to help the Ukrainians.

    *it’s possible only Adam and I get this.

  54. 54.

    oldster

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I’m happy to defer to your knowledge of the political situation there — you have a much better handle on these things, informed by a deeper understanding of language, culture, history, and the whole picture.

    But even if it was only the army that was unreliable, wouldn’t Obama’s decision have been the same?

    Or to echo HinTN’s question at 47: what could we have actually *done* in 2014?  Sent a carrier fleet into the Black Sea?

    I know what Merkel should have done; I know what Schroeder should have done: they should have decoupled their economy from Russia’s, and started then the sanctions that Biden started 8 years later. Their continued embrace of Putin after 2014 is a stain on their names.

    But what military action could we have taken in 2014?

  55. 55.

    El Muneco

    @Omnes Omnibus: I know it’s rhetorical, but my take is that Lee epitomized the virtues that the pre-war US army _did_ value, and Grant epitomized the virtues that it _should have_ valued.

  57. 57.

    Geminid

    In a development tangentially related to the war in Ukraine, the USS Gerald Ford just spent a couple days exercising in the Mediterranean Sea with the Andalou, Turkiye’s new drone and helicopter carrier. US-Turkish relations have been prickly the last few years, and this may reflect a warming between the two nations.

    US Ambassador to Turkiye Jeff Flake made the scene on the Ford’s flight deck along with Selcik Bayraktar, who with his brother operates dronemaker Baykar Industries. I would have liked to have been there just to see the Ford’s electromagnetic catapult system in action.

  58. 58.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Omnes Omnibus: In my mech infantry battalion, there were a bunch of ring knockers, and I fit in with that bunch.  Didn’t stop any of us from not doing tourist stuff, though!

  59. 59.

    kalakal

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Dixon admitted that he himself had completely the wrong personality to be a wartime commander. But then he was a bomb disposal officer who felt there was a time and place for innovation and it usually. wasn’t while he was standing next to 500lb WW2 bomb.

  60. 60.

    Geminid

    @Villago Delenda Est: Ulysses Grant was a qualified teamster by the time he was 13 years old. His experience with horses and mules may have given him some insight into dealing with soldiers.

  61. 61.

    HinTN

    @Villago Delenda Est: Grant was into seizing the advantage whenever he saw it. He wanted to fight to end the damn fight but here also understood he had to have the supplies for the long haul (logistics).

  62. 62.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Villago Delenda Est: One of my friends from USMA decided that he didn’t want to be in the army as job almost immediately.  He had loved West Point and the real army was a disappointment.  He did as little as possible 90% of time.  He used to try to do something perfectly every once in a while to remind everyone that he could if he cared.  Fantastic skier.

  63. 63.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster:

    September, 2014:

    WASHINGTON–President Barack Obama stuck to his refusal to provide weapons or other lethal military gear to Ukraine, despite a passionate appeal Thursday for help in fighting pro-Russia rebels by Ukraine’s president.

    Speaking before a joint session of Congress, President Petro Poroshenko described the monthslong conflict in
    eastern Ukraine as being at the forefront of a global fight for freedom and democracy.

    “The outcome of today’s war will determine whether we will be forced to accept the reality of a dark, torn and bitter Europe as part of a new world order,” he said in a speech that was interrupted by several standing ovations.

    The White House announced a new $53 million aid package for Ukraine, which includes counter-mortar radar, radios, vehicles, patrol boats, body armor, helmets and night-vision goggles. But it stopped short of providing weapons or other lethal aid the Ukrainians have been seeking.

    The decision reflects the Obama administration’s long-standing concern that arming Ukraine would provoke
    Moscow into a further escalation that could drag Washington into a proxy war.

    Well, he could have not done that – imagine provoking Moscow into further escalation. Um, like what, invading Ukraine?

    Or this:

    In an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, President Obama laid out key elements of his approach to foreign policy. There is much in it with which one can agree. “Don’t do stupid s——” makes sense as an axiom of foreign policy—or of any policy, for that matter—as does taking deliberate and strategic decisions about when to engage American military power.

    As regards the two-year-old conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the president said Ukraine is a core interest for Moscow, in a way that it is not for the United States. He noted that, since Ukraine does not belong to NATO, it is vulnerable to Russian military domination, and that “we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.”

    Completely buying into russia’s framing. I mean “Ukraine is a core interest for Moscow, in a way that it is not for the US” could have been written or said by Lavrov.

    There are myriad steps that could have been taken short of dropping the 82nd Airborne into Donetsk, but all Poroshenko got was “gee, sucks to be you.”

  64. 64.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Omnes Omnibus: Our support platoon leader was that, Hudson High grad.  Found his job boring, didn’t see any prospects for things getting better, decided after his obligation was up he’d go civilian.

  66. 66.

    Ruckus

    I was discharged from the USN 50 yrs ago last month. I would bet serious money that all branches of the US military will be far different than they were then. One of my friends onboard ship was a higher ranked enlisted man who joined the navy in 1950-52 timeframe. His description of the navy then and when I was in was completely different. That was only 20 yrs. This has been 2 1/2 times as long. No one that was in when I was is in now. Not one person. Life and times have changed as they always do. I find it somewhat difficult to believe that people get treated the same as we did when I was in, just as my friend said, it is a different time, a different place and different people. I just spent an hour talking to the person I think is the oldest person in the old farts complex that I live in. She’s 97, born in Los Angeles just like my mom and me. Except my mom would be 106 if she was still around and I’ve got a few years to get there. I have ridden motorcycles over 1/2 million miles – and my neighbor may have me beat in mileage. She still rides around on her electric 4 wheeler – 97 yrs old. Life is good some days. And some days it’s better.

  67. 67.

    Ruckus

    @Adam L Silverman:

    There wasn’t much appetite for pushing back when I was in the navy either. It’s just not in the bloodline of the organization of the military. It happens of course but it happens at odd times and in odd ways, like when it’s the only option and usually when only one person will admit to seeing it. And then it only does when other jump on the bandwagon.

  69. 69.

    oldster

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Thanks for the contemporary documentation.

    Yeah, that looks bad, I admit it to my chagrin. Looks to me like Obama misunderstood the stakes. I wonder what the Baltics were saying, and whether he was listening?

  70. 70.

    BeautifulPlumage

    @oldster: I’ll second the standing with others to stand with Ukraine. I’m not in a position to donate right now, but can help keep the focus in Russia’s war of genocide.

     

     

    “…you are not only providing a service to the BJ readership. You are also making a personal statement of solidarity with Ukraine, to the extent that you can from an ocean away, standing watch with them everyday through the ordeal. You are honoring a debt of good faith towards a people, an army, and a leader whom you admire. In my own ineffectual way, I stand with you and them.”

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    The USN really was based around the idea that ship warfare had changed little from the time of the revolutionary war when I was in. It of course understood it was different it just couldn’t see exactly how, mainly because it didn’t want to look.

  72. 72.

    Ruckus

    @oldster:

    I’m not sure he misunderstood or was less than well informed by the people that were supposed to inform him. I’d go with #2.

  73. 73.

    The Pale Scot

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Dunnigan took over a windowless basement in the Lower East Side of New York City where he published his first issue, Strategy & Tactics #18 in September 1969;

    Holy shit I think I met this guy at my  cannabis connection’s apt. Long haired guy wearing glasses that talked about going to sand table exercises at West Point. I so wanted to talk to about that, but it wasn’t the place to be nosy. Man I miss the chess games with those guys

  74. 74.

    Bill Arnold

    Google searches are finding curiously little about the use of thermobaric explosion over-pressure to detonate pressure-triggered antipersonnel mines Any pointers? (Just rabbit-holing and this was a side-branch.)

  75. 75.

    Geminid

    @Villago Delenda Est: General Short, who commanded Army forces at Hawaii when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, was a good example of this. Short was a capable administrator who did well when the peacetime Army was rapidly expanding, but he was clueless as an outpost commander with war liable to break out.

    Short had an unserious approach to the job. General Herron, his predecessor, sent a briefing book for Short to read on his voyage out, but he found that Short had read a novel instead. Later, Short told the Army’s Pearl Harbor Board that he thought the Islands were safe because the Pacific Fleet was there!

  76. 76.

    YY_Sima Qian

    So, it seems that the U.S. Army (& other branches of the U.S. military, w/ NATO & nom-NATO allies/partners) has an tradition of running unscripted opposed exercises at the tactical level to maximize training effectiveness & stimulate independent thinking, led by colonels. Yet during war games simulating campaigns, led by GO/FOs, things get highly political & conventional.

    Based on media & think tank reports, I think at least US war games simulating a war with the PRC over Taiwan in the past few years have been more realistic. Just about every reported outcome is in the range of Pyhrric victory (for either side) to a very bloody draw. DOD & US commanders in the Indi-Pacific understand that they cannot be complacent w/ the modern PLA. They might even be tempted to inflate the Chinese threat at the tactical, operational, strategic & geopolitical levels to attain larger budgets, which is surely why some of the DOD war game results have been leaked to the press.

    I do think there are still major blind spots in the way the reported war games are constructed. For starters, escalation to nuclear weapons are almost always out of bound. Sure, it allows the games to proceed, as when nukes start to fly it’s game over. OTOH, this makes the war game detached from real world conditions. Either it convinces policymakers that conventional war w/ China has manageable risk of nuclear escalation, or it is unrealistic because the specter of nuclear war will always weigh heavily on the minds of the policymakers & regional commanders (see the Biden Administration wrt aid to Ukraine). Policy makers could use the reminder just how destructive a war over TW could prove to all of the belligerents & the world at large, & thus focus their minds on preventing such a war from occurring in the 1st place (not that it should never be fought under any circumstances). It would also remind them that deterrence alone, while necessary, is insufficient to maintain peace in the TW Strait. Deterrence is not a strategy, it’s a stopgap.

    Some of the reported war game parameters greatly underestimate the effectiveness of PLA AShCMs & ASBMs fired, but may overestimate the difficulty in breaking the kill chains that provide targeting to long range PLA fires into the Western Pacific. War gamers may overestimate the impact of USN SSNs, under appreciating the effectiveness of modern PLAN ASW w/in the 1st Island Chain, & the oceanography there that would greatly constrain operations by the huge SSNs. The games have to make wild assumptions about the effectiveness of cyber warfare by either side, or counter-space warfare.

    Finally, any game that ends in a draw seems to be an artificial outcome. A scenario where the ROCAF & ROCN have been obliterated, the JMSDF & JASDF smashed, the USN & USAF suffered grievous losses & out of the more effective anti-shipping munitions, the PLAAF & the PLAN also smashed & out of ballistic missiles, the PLA managed to land 10s of thousands of troops onto TW but could not keep them sustained, & the PRC decides to call it a day, is laughably unrealistic. Given the PRC’s industrial capacity, one should not count on a scenario where it runs out of munitions or land based platforms to launch them. If the PLA has managed to sustain a beachhead w/ 10a of thousands of troops, it probably has captured several ports & airports (even if relatively small ones). Even w/ the PLAN/PLAAF smashed, the PRC will leverage its huge fleet of commercial shipping (from cargo ships to RO-RO carriers for automobiles to shipping vessels) to keep the landing force sustained & send reinforcements. There will be more Chinese ships in the TW Strait than the USN has torpedoes. Even if a PLA invasion attempt is defeated, the war would not necessarily end then. The PLA can continue to blockade TWese ports & airports w/ long range rocket artillery & SRBMs. TW cannot be supplied just from the few facilities along its east coast.

  77. 77.

    oldster

    @Ruckus:

    Presidents have to balance a lot of considerations. He may also have been hearing from central NATO partners — Germany, France, UK, etc. — the same message that Crimea was not a core interest of the alliance.

    Again, we cannot save Europe if Europe does not want to be saved. The Baltics and Poland have been clear-eyed about the threat. Finland sure as hell has been, but they were not a part of NATO.

    France? Germany? Italy? They probably expressed a total lack of enthusiasm in supporting Ukraine in 2014. Austria? Ha! Even to this day they are in Putin’s pocket.

    Biden and Tony Blinken have done an amazing job in pulling together a genuine coalition, and adding Finland and Sweden to it while events were underway. It’s a damned shame that it took the 2022 invasion to concentrate the minds of the European capitals, and it is an even greater shame that they could not be made to wake up in 2014. But that’s where things were in 2014.

  78. 78.

    Another Scott

    In other news, …

    This weekend was the 60th anniversary of the March on Washington. So, as yet another illustration that King’s Dream has not come true, there was yet another racist mass shooting, this time in Jacksonville, Florida.

    Reuters:

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis condemned the shooting and the shooter took “the coward’s way out”.

    “The shooting, based on the manifesto that they discovered from the scumbag who did this, was racially motivated. He was targeting people based on their race. That is totally unacceptable,” DeSantis said.

    So, I guess Ron thinks that, I dunno, random mass shootings are Ok??! And he would have been, I dunno, brave if he hadn’t shot himself??!

    Yes, targeting people based on race is totally unacceptable. But so is mass murder with AR-15s.

    He’s startlingly bad at this stuff…

    Condolences to the wounded victims and peace to those who loved the victims.

    Grr…,
    Scott.

  79. 79.

    Andrya

    @Gin & Tonic:    @oldster:   @Ruckus:   I believe there was another factor that dominated Obama’s thinking in 2014:  he desperately wanted the Iran deal, and that couldn’t realistically happen without russian buy-in.

    I am not suggesting that justifies his decision.  And, of course, since Obama could never have gotten Senate confirmation for the JCPOA, it never could have survived a Republican administration.

  80. 80.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: What Obama said is standard international relations theory, warning against getting into contests of will when one has less at stake than one’s opponent. That is how the U.S. lost the Vietnam War, & left Afghanistan failing to achieve its objectives. However, I suspect Obama was thinking about Crimea & Donbass, & did not conceive that Russia would eventually attempt to physically conquer Ukraine. I think that would have remained the conventional wisdom had Putin not decided on an all out invasion.

    One sometimes hears the same line of reasoning wrt Taiwan, that TW is China’s (including any potential successor to the PRC) core national interest in a way it is not to the US’. At some level that might even be true, but US policymakers have to be able to credibly deter the PRC from invading TW, while also credibly reassure the PRC the U.S. is not promoting de jure independence for TW (so that the PRC would not feel compelled to invade).

    Goes to show the limitations of international relations theories (whichever school/strand). Then again, the West likely would not be so united in supporting Ukraine if the invasion had been the cakewalk that Putin envisioned.

  81. 81.

    Tehanu

    @oldster: Thanks again, Adam, for your daily updates. Unless I miss my guess, you are not only providing a service to the BJ readership. You are also making a personal statement of solidarity with Ukraine, to the extent that you can from an ocean away, standing watch with them everyday through the ordeal. You are honoring a debt of good faith towards a people, an army, and a leader whom you admire.  In my own ineffectual way, I stand with you and them.

    What oldster said. I don’t read Adam’s posts every day — it’s often too painful — but I totally value and admire the great work he’s doing.

  82. 82.

    Carlo Graziani

    @HinTN:  Oddly enough, I’ve been thinking of Grant rather a lot lately, in conjunction with the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    The qualities that he had as a general that were most widely recognized in his time were his immunity to panic in the face of unwelcome developments (“Ulysses don’t scare worth a damn,”) and his ability to think in terms of the damage that his army’s actions were causing the enemy, instead of focusing on the damage being inflicted on his own troops (“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.”)

    We read a great deal of the Surovikhin line, of Russian artillery, and of the fearsome cost the Russians exact for every Ukrainian advance. But I have the very strong impression that Zaluzhny is tracking the damage to Russian capability and balancing the costs and benefits of every operation as carefully and dispassionately as Grant did, without being detained by panic over setbacks, and with a steady, remorseless determination to force a conclusion that Grant would have admired.

  84. 84.

    Gvg

    Don’t forget we were still stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan at that time. I don’t think people would have supported yet another war. As a matter of fact I am sort of surprised they have kept supporting Ukraine. Lots of stupid wars can just make you sick and tired.

  85. 85.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    One sometimes hears the same line of reasoning wrt Taiwan, that TW is China’s (including any potential successor to the PRC) core national interest in a way it is not to the US’. At some level that might even be true, but US policymakers have to be able to credibly deter the PRC from invading TW, while also credibly reassure the PRC the U.S. is not promoting de jure independence for TW (so that the PRC would not feel compelled to invade).

    I know that we’ve debated this before, but nonetheless: the framing of US interest in Taiwan’s de facto (not de jure) independence in terms of “core national interests” is a dangerous misunderstanding, by IR specialists, and, potentially, by PRC leadership.

    No US President, of either party, could tolerate an invasion of Taiwan by China, or long survive the taint of not having immediately committed to rescue Taiwan from an invasion. No US Congress, irrespective of its composition, would expect anything less from the current Administration.

    The reasons have little to do with the narrow conception of “core national interests” espoused by the IR crowd, and everything to do with the politically intolerable prospect of seeing a successful, functioning democracy overwhelmed by an authoritarian state.

    This is a visceral political issue, which I still fear is not correctly appreciated among CPC policymakers.

  86. 86.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
     

    Yes.

    Tried to come up with some other words that fit the tragic truth, but that was the only one.

    Looked up the date on P_ssy RIot’s warning to the West about Putler, and it was a few years before 2014.

    It won’t bring anyone back, but I hope that Putler’s helpers in the US are not just exposed but prosecuted.

  87. 87.

    Citizen Alan

    @Van Buren:

    I remember the Van Riper story. It was 2002, and I saw it as the Bush swine trying to show that an Iran invasion, on top of Iraq and Afghanistan, would be a walk in the park.

  88. 88.

    oldster

    @Andrya: , @Gvg:

    More good points. Obama was still dealing with the wars that Bush II had foolishly started, and all of their fall-out, including the nuclear ambitions of Iran. So, those were more considerations that he had to juggle in deciding how to respond to the theft of Crimea.

    It’s worth pointing out as well how Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has given him and the US military greater liberty of action in responding to the Ukraine situation. The perfidious Putin caucus in the House loves to claim that our assistance to Ukraine is depriving us of our border security, or preventing us from helping Hawaii. All nonsense, of course, but imagine how they would have hollered had there been any setback to our troops in Afghanistan at the same time that we were giving arms to Ukraine.

  89. 89.

    Fair Economist

    This war looks very WWI-ish to me. Specifically, there aren’t breakthroughs – because of the extensive mining, the WWI situation where defenders maneuver better than attackers applies, and so any incipient breakthrough can be stopped with reserves. The strategy that works there is to make attacks, take gains, and stop when the balance of casualties turns against you. Then regroup and attack elsewhere. This looks like what the Ukrainians are doing.

    If the Ukrainians had the US’s advantages in airplanes and missiles, then they could use the US’s WWII-style strategy. But they don’t and they can’t.

  90. 90.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: When I wrote those comments, I was referring to US based IR theorists & China/Taiwan specialists (or at least some among them). Certainly Chinese policy makers believe this to be the case, too, although PLA war planning almost certainly assumes direct US intervention, probably Japan, too.

  91. 91.

    sab

    Thank you for your comments.  We need these from people want the best from both sides.

    This increasing tension between China and US cannot bode well for either side.

  92. 92.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab:

    This increasing tension between China and US cannot bode well for either side.

    The trend lines have been deeply worrying since the start of the Pandemic. The last few months there have been more serious efforts by the 2 sides toward stabilization. Commerce Secretary Raimondo will be visiting Beijing in the coming week. This will be an interesting visit, because the Comm. Dept. has been charged with formulating, enacting & enforcing the technology restrictions as part of the tech. war, & part of the Commerce Dept. bureaucracy has taken to the task w/ extraordinary enthusiasm, essentially looking for any justification at all to expand the scope of the restrictions, even though the US strategy to the tech. war is supposed to be “small yard, tall fence”. At the same time, Comm. Dept. is charged w/ promoting US exports to China & opening China’s markets.

    Comm. Dept. did remove 27 Chinese companies from the US Entities List (blacklists that forbid technical collaborations or even commercial transactions) last week, showing that it is not a one way street for any & all Chinese companies getting sanctioned sooner or later. If one wants to punish bad behavior & reward good behavior, however one conceives of such, then there has to be a path for targeted entities to get off the blacklists. Otherwise they will have no incentive to conform to whatever the US defines as good behavior. The Biden Administration is also seeking a 6 mo. extension to the 4+ decades old scientific cooperation agreement that has proven to be quite beneficial to both sides, so that it can negotiate an update w/ China. GOPers in Congress have been agitating for an end to the agreement, period. Beijing has received Blinken, Kerry & Yellen w/o excessive rancor, & Chinese ministers are & will be visiting DC, as well.

    Nevertheless, the stabilizing trend is extremely fragile, vulnerable to domestic political winds on both sides of the Pacific, & the GOP is sure to demagog anything that the Biden Administration does wrt China as “weak” & “treasonous”, particularly as the campaign season heats up.

    At the same time, Xi is using the heightening Great Power Competition to justify increased domestic repression, steadily tightening the allowed scope of domestic discussion, putting up more barriers (or at least frictions) for intellectual/academic exchanges, & making it ever more difficult for reporters from Anglophone media to obtain visas. The Chinese government has been geo-locking more & more hitherto public government databases, restricting access for anyone not in China (though one can easily circumvent the geo-lock w/ a VPN), Chinese companies are being much more circumspect w/ their R&D efforts, to prevent USG from gaining more insight into Chinese industry & thus more effectively target Chinese entities for sanctions & restrictions. The Ministry of State Security is publishing warnings on Chinese social media to raise awareness among Chinese citizens against undefined US espionage efforts, a kind if mirror imaging of FBI Director Wray describing Chinese espionage as a “whole of society endeavor”, requiring a “multi-generational whole of society response” on the part of the US.

    If a GOPer wins the WH in 2024, I think it might time to dig fall out shelters again, & I will most certainly not take my daughter to the US for schooling. Sinophobia will be through the roof, & it is already disturbingly high.

  93. 93.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for your perspective.

    Devil’s advocate:

    Doesn’t the Uhigur internment camps (which started before the pandemic) have a big role in the US’s and the West’s skepticism and of Xi and cooling relations with the CCP?
    Hasn’t the lending for the “Belt and Road” program created a lot of skepticism of Xi’s economic policies in developing countries, putting them at mercy of Chinese bankers?  And making the Chinese economy look much more fragile and dependent on unsustainable growth at home and abroad?
    Related to #2, the Chinese housing/property bubble has burst (as everyone knew it would).  Economies have recessions, especially after years of rapid growth.  Nobody knows how the CCP will handle a major downturn.
    As we all know, TSMC is a huge player in advanced semiconductor circuits.  A military invasion of Taiwan would put TSMC at risk and advanced economies are too dependent on TSMC to just sit back and let that happen. This makes me think that most of what Xi is doing is sabre-rattling and trying to influence domestic politics on Taiwan (“it’s too stressful, we need to work with Xi and the CCP more”) to have an eventual pro-Xi / pro-CCP majority (in 20-50 years, or whatever). So that they can “take” Taiwan without invading.

    All of these things were factors before the pandemic, and all of them are areas of disagreement / friction / concern.

    +1 on mentioning Biden wants to extend the Science.org – 44 year old science and technology agreement (probable paywall):

    President Joe Biden’s administration has given itself 6 months to reach a deal with China to preserve a 44-year-old agreement governing scientific cooperation between the two superpowers. But the rising tensions between the two countries and calls by congressional Republicans for the United States to end cooperation with China will require the White House to walk a political tightrope in renewing what has traditionally been a garden-variety diplomatic pact.

    U.S. academics welcome the administration’s decision, first reported by NBC News, not to abandon an agreement that has been renewed in 5-year increments by both Republican and Democratic presidents since then–Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping and U.S. President Jimmy Carter signed it in 1979. They argue the U.S. has benefited as much as China in conducting joint basic research on topics ranging from reducing infant mortality to combating climate change. There’s no reason to abandon those efforts, they add.

    “I’m delighted by this result,” says physicist John Holdren of Harvard University, who served as the science adviser to former President Barack Obama. In 2011, Holdren helped negotiate a 5-year extension of the Agreement Between the United States and China on Cooperation in Science and Technology, also known as the STA. The pact “says that it’s OK with the U.S. government that we collaborate on science and technology with China, with appropriate selectivity and management. I think it is particularly important, at a time of tension in so many dimensions of our relationship with China, that we show that there are things worth preserving in that relationship.”

    […]

    Even with competition and strong disagreements, there are many areas where we need to work together.

    My $0.02. Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  94. 94.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian:  One thing I was wondering whether you could offer comment on: China appears to be facing a debt crisis, potentially a “Minsky moment” (as Krugman puts it) in which huge portfolios of loans, mostly in real estate, suddenly appear to be backed by crashing values, leading to a debt-deflation spiral—creditors such as banks, hedge funds etc. suddenly call in their loans to cover balance sheet holes, leading to cascades of foreclosures and seizing up of credit markets.

    This is, to first order, what happened in the US in 2009, although effects here were severely magnified by the baroque structure of mortgage-related investments, and by the lack of regulation of “shadow banks” (firms such as hedge funds that by borrowing liquidly while lending illiquidly, effectively act as banks, with the same potential for bank runs leading to contagion in the credit markets).

    The immediate threat of contagion to the US and EU by such a contraction of Chinese credit markets seems slight. But many economies in Asia, as well as Southern beneficiaries of Road and Belt investment appear to be quite exposed, and this could possibly lead to contracting export markets that ultimately do lead to effects on Western economies.

    So the concerns are ultimately global, and the immediate question that arises is whether the Chinese government has the technocratic ability to navigate such a crisis and avert the worst outcomes, possibly by becoming a lender of last resort to keep domestic credit markets alive (AKA “printing money”), the classic Keynesian remedy to a debt-deflation spiral. What is the thinking concerning the CPC’s ability and willingness to intervene here?

  95. 95.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott:

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Big questions! Answers will be complex & nuanced, & I do not claim any expertise in any of the areas in question, beyond being fairly well read (IMHO) for a layman, nor will I have much original analysis. :-P

    I will give my response in tomorrow’s post, & try not to completely derail the Ukraine related discussion. Need to go to bed.

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