The OSINT geolocation folks have now determined that a Russian shahed drone meant for the Izmail port in Ukraine crashed in Romania.
🧵Thread:
I have successfully obtained satellite imagery that partially covers the region in Romania where, in the early morning of September 4th, a russian Shahed drone crashed and detonated. pic.twitter.com/99jAZq8dHJ
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 5, 2023
I’ll put the entirety of Tatarigami’s and GeoConfirmed threads on this after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We have outlined several priorities with the warriors; what needs to be done will be done – address by the President of Ukraine
5 September 2023 – 23:23
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
We are finishing this day in the capital, Kyiv.
Two days in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia region. 13 combat brigades.
Together with Generals Syrskyi, Tarnavskyi and Sodol. We talked to the brigade and battalion commanders.
We awarded our warriors. By the way, guys, we will add all the chevrons here – this is our new chevron board. I want every guest of Ukraine I talk to in my office to see how proud Ukraine is of its people!
I thanked the combat medics, our doctors. It is very important!
We are very proud of our warriors who return to their positions after wounds to join their brothers-in-arms.
All requests from the warriors will be addressed by senior generals, government officials, and our international relations officials.
There will be new supplies.
It is very important that there will be a new production of our weapons, and we have outlined several priority items with the warriors. This is what needs to be done. We will do it!
And about tomorrow.
Today we have already prepared. There will be events that are important for Ukraine. There will also be decisions that are important for Ukraine.
I thank everyone who fights and works for our country!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Parliament of Ukraine @verkhovna_rada has accepted the resignation of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov@oleksiireznikov
He held this office for 22 months and made the impossible possible by ensuring large-scale arms supplies for the #UAarmy from the free…— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 5, 2023
The Parliament of Ukraine @verkhovna_rada has accepted the resignation of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov
He held this office for 22 months and made the impossible possible by ensuring large-scale arms supplies for the #UAarmy from the free world.
First Stingers, Javelins, and NLAWs helped Ukraine repel russia’s attack in the spring of 2022.
Then 155 mm artillery and HIMARS became game changers in the summer of 2022.
IRIS-T, NASAMS, Patriots, and others became our air shield.
Tanks, long-range missiles, and F-16s will make Ukraine’s victory inevitable.
🇺🇦
Ukrainian Parliament bid farewell to Reznikov with a standing applause. pic.twitter.com/3udPk1rhR7
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 5, 2023
Robotyne:
Ukraine's Armed Forces continue their advance from Robotyne to Novoprokopivka, pushing forward towards Melitopol, as reported by the General Staff. Ukrainian fighters are also making progress in the Verbove area. pic.twitter.com/zlrhTPrQeU
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 5, 2023
ROBOTYNE-VERBOVE / UKR forces have taken control of Russian defensive positions between Robotyne and Verbove. RU reported to have committed reserves. UKR counter-battery fire effective. pic.twitter.com/SAwQsbk7t3
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 5, 2023
Orkhiv:
ORIKHIV AXIS /1600 UTC 5 SEPT/ UKR forces continue to press south on T-04-08 HWY axis; heavy combat ongoing NE of Novoprokopivka. UKR forces in contact NW of Verbove. Sources report that RU has committed reserves to stem UKR advances. pic.twitter.com/zI03FrWd56
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 5, 2023
Velyka Novosilka
VELYKA NOVOSILKA /1745 UTC 5 SEPT/ UKR forces in contact at Novodonetske & Novomaiorske, diverting.
RU reinforcement/resupply from ongoing fight at Zavitne Bazhanya. UKR counter-battery fire takes out RU artillery. pic.twitter.com/A0qPY2sXOK— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 5, 2023
Bakhmut:
Real heroes defend our country.
Let us always remember their daily sacrifice. pic.twitter.com/gq574UuPKZ— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 5, 2023
Makiivka:
Ukrainian rounds would often enter our prison courtyard!
It just couldn’t be helped and just a fact of life.
We thought we would be liberated long before we would be exchanged.— Shaun Pinner (@olddog100ua) September 5, 2023
Here’s the full text if the first tweet:
Russian forces would congregate their forces around buildings and in city infrastructure. During my time at Makivka prison we could see from the windows of the prison how they used the jail as a big human shield. Artillery, Mortars and soldiers were based in and around the residential areas. It’s inevitable eventually some civilians would die even in such places as Donetsk City due to the placement of Russian assets. They really don’t care!
Southern Ukraine and Russian Occupied Crimea:
EuroMaidan Press has the details:
In the meantime, Ukrainians continued conducting their own strikes on the Russian military objects in the western part of the occupied Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine. As alluded to previously, after Ukrainians destroyed multiple Russian air defense systems along the western shore of Crimea and the southern shore of the Kherson Oblast, Ukraine gained almost absolute freedom of movement for the aerial drones, which allowed the Ukrainians to start using Bayraktar armed drones once again.
Today, the Ukrainians conducted another successful strike on the areas of concentration of Russian forces. If yesterday Ukrainians hunted down a boat with ammunition and personnel, then today they struck a truck with ammunition and personnel exactly in the same area.
Meanwhile, Russian sources started complaining that Ukrainian reconnaissance drones began to get even deeper into Russian-controlled territories, and Russian chase operations involving helicopters are slowly becoming a common occurrence.
Romania:
🧵Thread:
I have successfully obtained satellite imagery that partially covers the region in Romania where, in the early morning of September 4th, a russian Shahed drone crashed and detonated. pic.twitter.com/99jAZq8dHJ
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 5, 2023
3/ The coordinates were established by the @Geoconfirmed team with a high level of confidence, based on their thorough research. I am highly certain that the incident occurred within the territory of Romania. You can review their research in detail here: https://t.co/OPjZ8r4Hnj
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 5, 2023
5/ This leads me to the conclusion that the explosion most likely occurred in closer proximity to the trees rather than in the open field. As a result, we may need to wait a few more days for clearer images to become available before I can confirm my hypothesis. pic.twitter.com/4bC6Mo8UJg
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 5, 2023
7/ Your contributions via Buy Me A Coffee have enabled the availability of this satellite imagery and analysis. If you found this thread valuable, please support by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread, and give @GeoConfirmed a follow
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 5, 2023
And this one from GeoConfirmed. First tweet from his thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App, and then the last two tweets from the thread that didn’t get picked up by the Thread Reader App.
GeoConfirmed UKR – Investigation.
The claim:
In the early morning of 04 SEP a Russian Shahed crashed and exploded inside Romania (NATO member).
Russia was attacking Izmail Port (next to the Romanian border).Our volunteers looked into this. 👇
1/X pic.twitter.com/yvzgcY7Amv
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) September 5, 2023
GeoLocation conclusion:
Estimated area of the crash = the Romanian side of the river, area around 45.328864, 28.803601
Thanks to @auditor_ya, @neonhandrail and @LondonDigiTech
GeoLocation by @auditor_ya and @neonhandrail:
5/X
GeoLocation thread by @LondonDigiTech:
6/X
More proof by @neonhandrail, showing the treeline with the explosion is an exact match with other footage.
Chatter in local telegram groups stated that a Shahed was hit and flew to Romania.
3 different statements by Romania are circulating:
175, 176 and 312.Statement 175 (seems to be the same as 312) by Romania:Statement 176:
Statement by Ukraine:
11/X facebook.com/oleg.nikolenko…
Oleg Nikolenko – За інформацією Державної прикордонної…За інформацією Державної прикордонної служби України, сьогодні вночі під час масованої атаки Росії в районі Ізмаїльського порту російські «шахеди» впали…https://www.facebook.com/oleg.nikolenko.50/posts/pfbid026YqYsCnAHhV7UE26iKZdnmrYvvNRRGPut3BgpMxqYSSuarTyxN4FbF2nKbd8wxNmlBased on different investigations by different geolocators,
based on the OS knowledge how a Shahed works,
based on the OS knowledge and the Ukrainian communication that they are able to shoot down/hit a lot of Shaheds…:
12/X
Regarding the art. 5 discussion:
Asked a military expert his opinion:Article 5 clearly states: "armed attack against a member".
In this case the attack was against Ukraine. The shahed likely exploded in Romania after it was hit or by accident.= Not an art. 5 incident.
15/X pic.twitter.com/oEVQfvR8gl
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) September 5, 2023
Good morning! May your day begin with a joyful smile.
📷 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade pic.twitter.com/YKZpBSOq3G
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 5, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Моя людина❤️
The machine translation of the caption is:
My human ❤️
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Thanks again as always. Before I teach a class at 7 pm (yes, really), I wanted to ask about Romania is soft-pedaling the drone strike. Is it because no one in Romania was injured (no harm, no foul)? If so, what happens when (not if) that changes? Where, if anywhere, does that put the Article 5 redline?
Sanjeevs
Prigozhin may be dead but the Russian troll farms are very much alive
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/slovakia-elections-robert-fico-ukraine-russia
Jay
https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop/status/1699006406563639429#m
Alison Rose
So if they oopsie-daisy bomb (/drone/whatever) a NATO country, that’s fine? That seems…weird. And dangerous.
From the In Ukraine FB page: “A bridge in Irpin near Kyiv, known from so many heart-breaking photos of the first days of the full-scale war, has been rebuilt.”
Thank you as always, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
The Patron caption is more accurately “my person” or “my human.”
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: It’s because Romania was not targeted. The Izmail port in Ukraine was targeted. The shahed crashed into Romania either because it malfunctioned or because it was hit by Ukrainian air defense. That’s why there’s not going to be an Article 5 invocation.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
Chetan Murthy
try again
Chetan Murthy
interesting: https://nitter.net/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235#m
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: Well that turned into a messy comment, but I’ve freed it from moderation.. I’m going to put this in tomorrow night’s update if that’s okay. In the future, for something this long, just email me the link and a description and I’ll put it in the actual update.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: You’re killing me!
Jay
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66715773
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, sorry, when I saw it was in moderation, I figured “remove the links, that’ll let it pass”. I shared it mostly b/c there are so many ex-military folks here, who can informedly comment, so please do share it tomorrow, and let’s see what people think.
billcoop4
Paragraph breaks, too, are helpful.
BC
Adam L Silverman
@billcoop4: Paragraph breaks are for Platinum level subscribers.//
Chetan Murthy
@billcoop4: a fair cop. I figured that’s what the link was for.
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: I get that initial response but what happens when the shahed targets something on the river’s edge, oops, wrong side, sorry about the dead people? I’m worried that Romania is making the same mistake NATO as a whole made/is making and letting Russia dictate the red-lines.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: Unless there is a an actual attack that can be definitively determined to be the result of Russia deliberately targeting a NATO country, there won’t be any invocation of Article 5. Frankly, even if there is, provided it is conventional and considered a one off, I expect there will be no invocation of Article 5. That is simply the unfortunate reality.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
It is a more than fair critique of “NATO Training”,
other than it’s not NATO Training, (that’s a two year program to just get to the basics), it’s a NATO crash course created for the Ukrainians.
Prescott Cactus
@Adam L Silverman:
I just upgraded from Dirt to Iron. Platinum? Geez.
Jay
@Prescott Cactus:
only 47 more upgrades to go. The top level with all the bells and whistles is Cole.
Cole, not Coal.
Betty Cracker
@Adam L Silverman: That sounds about right (in my uninformed opinion).
Adam L Silverman
@Betty Cracker: It is both strategically correct in the abstract and strategic malpractice in the application. In the abstract you don’t want a screw up or a one off to escalate. Because once you start escalating, it is very hard to deescalate. In practice, however, given what we’ve seen of Putin since 2007, he embodies Lenin’s concept of probing with bayonets. “When probing with bayonets, when you find mush proceed. When you find steel, retreat.” Much of what Putin does is probe for mush. For almost 20 years he has almost always found mush. And that means if there is a deliberate attack and the alliance leadership works quietly to prevent the invocation of Article 5 in order avoid escalation, you’re just going to get more one side escalation from Putin.
Betty Cracker
@Adam L Silverman: That’s a succinct and yet comprehensive summary. What do you think the result will be?
Adam L Silverman
@Betty Cracker: In this case of Romania, nothing much. The Romanian Ministry of Defense has issued a formal statement by the Minister stating this was collateral and unintentional damage. I expect NATO will say nothing. Maybe the Romanians send a demarche to the Russians, but beyond that and checking the contingency planning, I doubt anything else is going to happen.
Prescott Cactus
@Chetan Murthy:
It doesn’t mention the length of training received, but one has to imagine that everyone thought it wasn’t enough.
They were taught some / a little basic NATO soldiering, but not what they wanted, or everything they wanted. Many possible reasons, from strict adherence to class syllabus, instructors don’t know / understand desired topics and not enough time.
Night driving doesn’t need special training as much as it needs Night Vision.
Bingo: “in the future, Ukraine needs to treat NATO training as basic infantry training instead of a complete cycle of brigade/battalion-level preparation.”
Jay
@Prescott Cactus:
The NATO training program is 5 weeks long and most of the Ukrainian’s in the program have little to no combat experience or anything more than Ukrainian basic training or NCO School.
Standard NATO basic is 6 months.
Night driving does require special training.
NVG’s flatten depth perception, eliminate peripheral vision and “flare” causing night blindness from even a strong flashlight. You can’t see side ditches, potholes, shell craters, landmines or even wrecks on the road very easily.
NVG’s arn’t standard issue in the TDF or Ukrainian Army, and are reserved for Combat groups, not Drivers.
As a result, most Ukrainian convoys at night, rely on black out headlights and convoy lights. Blackout headlights provide minimal forward illumination, mostly what is directly a few metres in front of the vehicle. Convoy lights let the vehicle behind you, if they know how to triangulate, where you are and what you are doing, and at times, everybody has to go completely dark.
There is a reason why “truck driver” is a Military MOS that you earn after 6 months of training and practice after 6 months of Basic.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: A good read that makes a lot of sense. Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: rofl.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Jay: I’m reminded of that russian video from last year or so of a bunch of grunts hanging off an APC, partially blocking the drivers view, and them trying to bugout quickly.
And the APC driving off the road into a ditch and killing a bunch of them when it rolled over.
And that was in the daytime.
:-/
Nothing about war is easy. And trying to do things well and do them quickly is often a contradiction in terms.
Here’s hoping that the US/NATO trainers are taking these comments constructively and trying to improve the training as expeditiously as possible.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: On “strategic malpractice” I register respectful disagreement.
The threat of NATO direct intervention in Ukraine is, as we now know explicitly, the stick that restrains Russia from employing battlefield nuclear weapons and nerve gas to shore up its catastrophically failing war effort. Trading in that effective deterrence for the sake of avenging an attack on some Rumanian trees would be stark daylight madness.
Prescott Cactus
@Jay:
Thanks ! Appears Ive been demoted back to dirt level for felonious nitwittery.
JaySinWA
@Adam L Silverman: Balloon juice is following the Scientology/Freemason model? I didn’t even get the secret handshake.
Carlo Graziani
Jay, thanks for last night’s pointer to the TNSR article on Saddam’s understanding of the events and circumstances leading to the first Gulf War. It’s an intersting thesis, and I like reads that attempt to enter into the worldview of characters who behave as enigmatically as Hussein did, granting them the benefit of the doubt on their rationality.
That said, it is still apparent that the worldview with which he and the people around him interpreted the end of the Cold War was utterly divorced from reality, and constructed from simplistically doctrinaire Arab grievance-driven nationalism, dressed up with Marxist-style dogma. He really brought that utterly avoidable catastrophe down on himself.
The tragic irony is that in doing so, he finally discredited the ideals of Arab Nationalism, which whatever its faults was built from elements of Western political thought, and in so doing opened the door for the debilitating cancer of Islamism.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Welcome, thought you might like it.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
Nothing about war is easy. And trying to do things well and do them quickly is often a contradiction in terms.
No it is not. I wasn’t sent to war and I served during a rather large one – Vietnam. But I have been using the VA for a number of years and have known a lot of people that did go. My best buddy of over 50 yrs went to Vietnam in the Marines, and a number here likely did as well, one for sure and he comments a lot. I’ve seen some the after effects of war, up close. It isn’t pretty, in every sense of the concept. I was lucky, a way too big number were not.
Ruckus
@Jay:
Boot camp or basic training is not 6 months in the US. And it doesn’t take 6 months to learn to drive a truck. My specialty was to operate and repair electronic equipment, like gyrocompasses and all the ship’s internal communication equipment. I spent less than 6 months training for that. For my second year on board I ran that department on a DDG – a guided missile destroyer. And rebuilt one of the gyrocompasses. Under way.
Ruckus
@Ruckus:
I’m going to tell 2 little stories about war and the after effects. I once, at the VA 10-12 yrs ago, sat with a gentleman my age who had been to Vietnam. He wasn’t wounded – physically. He was deeply wounded mentally by war. I’ve never met anyone else in my life who was a pissed off at life for what he had to do in Vietnam. I have no idea exactly what he went through, I never want to know. I knew a man who joined the navy and was sent to Vietnam to be a forward machine gunner on an RPB (river patrol boat). Some had better enlistments than others – I was one of those, but I spent 2 months in a navy hospital and met men who’d lost legs, arms, one man was in a full body cast, neck to feet and both arms. Someone fed him and wiped his ass – for months. That’s not as bad as being buried. And a lot of the people I see at the VA now, fought in the middle east. And they are only better off because medicine has gotten a lot better.
I’m not going to discuss the political side of war.
I never got shot at.
I have hung from the yardarm, 60-70 ft in the air, 20 feet from the centerline of the ship, (2 trips out and back – both sides) secured by a rope that I tied around my waist, working on our department’s equipment and if I fell it is extremely likely I wouldn’t be here now. And no I have not forgotten that day, 50+ yrs ago.
I know men that haven’t forgotten far, far worse. And never will.
Jay
@Ruckus:
Well, you are 15 or more years earlier than my experience. And you were Navy.
We didn’t even get to shoot a gun until week 6, and it was a 1918 Canadian pattern Lee Enfield chambered in .22 long. Single shot, manual reload.
At 6 months in, my MOS was rifleman, Basic Infantry. I basically knew how to dig a trench, service and shoot an L1A1, follow orders, use cover, march. Drones, nope, Night Vision, we didn’t have that, back up on a LMG, nope, Laptops, that’s a joke right?. LAW, nope. Tie shoes, yup. Wipe my ass properly, well if my Sgt, Major was watching.
12 months in, different MOS, several full Company and Battalion exercises started. Qualified Rifleman.
2 year’s in, good enough for deployment to Germany with the full Regiment.
5 weeks is not any standard NATO training program, other than what we have whipped up for Ukraine.
Their complaints are valid.
agorabum
@Anonymous At Work: It was obviously not an attack on Romania; Romania is not going to ask NATO to go to war over an errant drone strike.
Geminid
Ukraine’s green anarchists in the trenches. From Polish(?) military commentator Visegrad 24 (@visegrad24):