Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

In my day, never was longer.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 559: Schroedinger’s Drone Day 2

War for Ukraine Day 559: Schroedinger’s Drone Day 2

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The OSINT geolocation folks have now determined that a Russian shahed drone meant for the Izmail port in Ukraine crashed in Romania.

I’ll put the entirety of Tatarigami’s and GeoConfirmed threads on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We have outlined several priorities with the warriors; what needs to be done will be done – address by the President of Ukraine

5 September 2023 – 23:23

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We are finishing this day in the capital, Kyiv.

Two days in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia region. 13 combat brigades.

Together with Generals Syrskyi, Tarnavskyi and Sodol. We talked to the brigade and battalion commanders.

We awarded our warriors. By the way, guys, we will add all the chevrons here – this is our new chevron board. I want every guest of Ukraine I talk to in my office to see how proud Ukraine is of its people!

I thanked the combat medics, our doctors. It is very important!

We are very proud of our warriors who return to their positions after wounds to join their brothers-in-arms.

All requests from the warriors will be addressed by senior generals, government officials, and our international relations officials.

There will be new supplies.

It is very important that there will be a new production of our weapons, and we have outlined several priority items with the warriors. This is what needs to be done. We will do it!

And about tomorrow.

Today we have already prepared. There will be events that are important for Ukraine. There will also be decisions that are important for Ukraine.

I thank everyone who fights and works for our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Parliament of Ukraine @verkhovna_rada has accepted the resignation of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov

He held this office for 22 months and made the impossible possible by ensuring large-scale arms supplies for the #UAarmy from the free world.
First Stingers, Javelins, and NLAWs helped Ukraine repel russia’s attack in the spring of 2022.
Then 155 mm artillery and HIMARS became game changers in the summer of 2022.
IRIS-T, NASAMS, Patriots, and others became our air shield.
Tanks, long-range missiles, and F-16s will make Ukraine’s victory inevitable.
🇺🇦

Robotyne:

Orkhiv:

Velyka Novosilka

Bakhmut:

Makiivka:

Here’s the full text if the first tweet:

Russian forces would congregate their forces around buildings and in city infrastructure. During my time at Makivka prison we could see from the windows of the prison how they used the jail as a big human shield. Artillery, Mortars and soldiers were based in and around the residential areas. It’s inevitable eventually some civilians would die even in such places as Donetsk City due to the placement of Russian assets. They really don’t care!

Southern Ukraine and Russian Occupied Crimea:

EuroMaidan Press has the details:

In the meantime, Ukrainians continued conducting their own strikes on the Russian military objects in the western part of the occupied Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine. As alluded to previously, after Ukrainians destroyed multiple Russian air defense systems along the western shore of Crimea and the southern shore of the Kherson Oblast, Ukraine gained almost absolute freedom of movement for the aerial drones, which allowed the Ukrainians to start using Bayraktar armed drones once again.

Today, the Ukrainians conducted another successful strike on the areas of concentration of Russian forces. If yesterday Ukrainians hunted down a boat with ammunition and personnel, then today they struck a truck with ammunition and personnel exactly in the same area.

Meanwhile, Russian sources started complaining that Ukrainian reconnaissance drones began to get even deeper into Russian-controlled territories, and Russian chase operations involving helicopters are slowly becoming a common occurrence.

Romania:

And this one from GeoConfirmed. First tweet from his thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App, and then the last two tweets from the thread that didn’t get picked up by the Thread Reader App.

Other footage same incident.

2/XImage

Proof it is the same incident:

3/XImage

GeoLocation conclusion:

Estimated area of the crash = the Romanian side of the river, area around 45.328864, 28.803601

Thanks to @auditor_ya, @neonhandrail and @LondonDigiTech

4/XImage

GeoLocation by @auditor_ya and @neonhandrail:

5/X

GeoLocation thread by @LondonDigiTech:

6/X

More proof by @neonhandrail, showing the treeline with the explosion is an exact match with other footage.

7/XImage

Chatter in local telegram groups stated that a Shahed was hit and flew to Romania.

8/X t.me/izmail_golovnu…
Image

3 different statements by Romania are circulating:
175, 176 and 312.Statement 175 (seems to be the same as 312) by Romania:

9/X english.mapn.ro/cpresa/6037_pr…

Image
Image

Statement 176:

10/X english.mapn.ro/cpresa/6038_pr…
Image

Statement by Ukraine:

11/X facebook.com/oleg.nikolenko…
Image

Based on different investigations by different geolocators,

based on the OS knowledge how a Shahed works,

based on the OS knowledge and the Ukrainian communication that they are able to shoot down/hit a lot of Shaheds…:

12/X 

Conclusion:

– Highly likely a Russian Shahed crashed and exploded in Romania, likely after it was hit by Ukrainian AA.

– Ukrainian statement is opposed by Romanian statement 176: Based on our investigation Ukrainian statement is right.

13/XImage

 

That’s enough for tonight.

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    41Comments

    1. 1.

      Anonymous At Work

      Adam,

      Thanks again as always.  Before I teach a class at 7 pm (yes, really), I wanted to ask about Romania is soft-pedaling the drone strike.  Is it because no one in Romania was injured (no harm, no foul)?  If so, what happens when (not if) that changes?  Where, if anywhere, does that put the Article 5 redline?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Sanjeevs

      Prigozhin may be dead but the Russian troll farms are very much alive

       

      Slovakia matters far more than Europe realises. On 30 September, the small European country holds a parliamentary election that will have ramifications far beyond its borders. If the opinion polls are correct, it would mark the return of Robert Fico: a man who lavishes praises on Moscow and models himself on Viktor Orbán, the “alt-right” leader in neighbouring Hungary. The European Union and Nato could soon have a new troublemaker within.

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/slovakia-elections-robert-fico-ukraine-russia

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Alison Rose

      So if they oopsie-daisy bomb (/drone/whatever) a NATO country, that’s fine? That seems…weird. And dangerous.

      From the In Ukraine FB page: “A bridge in Irpin near Kyiv, known from so many heart-breaking photos of the first days of the full-scale war, has been rebuilt.”

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Anonymous At Work: It’s because Romania was not targeted. The Izmail port in Ukraine was targeted. The shahed crashed into Romania either because it malfunctioned or because it was hit by Ukrainian air defense. That’s why there’s not going to be an Article 5 invocation.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Chetan Murthy

      interesting: https://nitter.net/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235#m

      My thoughts regarding the issues reported by the @KyivIndependent article about the evaluation of NATO training and the 32nd Mechanized Brigade. Please consider this text as a supplementary piece interjected with opinions – my own and those I spoke to in the field. I got in touch with not only the 32nd but also the 92nd Mechanized Brigade. The 92nd fought alongside the 32nd and can provide unique insight, as they are experienced and saw firsthand the schism between theory and practice. Our new infantry brigade did a heroic job in the given circumstances: limited time, resources, and ammunition. My conversations with everyone outside of the 32nd were marked with gratitude, as nobody appreciates people willing to do the job of infantry more than infantry. Don’t doom over this text. My effort is to give another small input into making Western training more effective. Let me also point out that when dealing with losses, emotions run high, and there is an opening for toxicity to seep in. The disconnect between expectations set by the training and the reality of the Ukrainian battlefield can be explained better with a lack of communication at the higher level than with “Western arrogance”. It can still get you angry, but you would be a fool to escape into a simple narrative that relies on a lack of intelligence or empathy. You can not expect Western militaries to be perfectly in tune with the requirements of the Ukrainian battlefield at the institutional level when our own institutions run into similar problems with less distance to the front. If you think Ukrainian training is perfect, I have an illegal bridge to sell you. You can watch the videos of Western instructors saying farewell to Ukrainian recruits anytime. Twitter replies made by armchair generals do not represent them. I think they very much care. Background: The 32nd Mechanized Brigade was formed at the beginning of 2023 and partially equipped with Western equipment with the core of its mechanized infantry utilizing the American M113 armored personnel carrier. Its infantry battalions underwent training in the spring of 2023 in a NATO country. After the return to Ukraine, the brigade received equipment and ammunition and was fully staffed. During the summer, the 32nd brigade was deployed alongside the 92nd brigade, which had been fighting for the past nine months in the Svatove axis in the northeast of Ukraine. The deployment quickly became problematic and resulted in heavy casualties, eventually forcing the command to reconsider. The training: I’ve spoken to one of the sergeants in the brigade with the call sign “Nestor” about the training they received abroad. Overall, the training included basic infantry, reconnaissance, and assault tactics. Nestor said the most interesting and useful part was the reconnaissance training. “We learned how to get close to the enemy and build secure observation posts. It was essential.” They also learned how to adjust artillery and navigation. “Navigation was useful; spotting was interesting, but it was not particularly useful on the battlefield so far.” However, his overall verdict of the training was mixed: “It was like the instructors were in a vacuum. We received training in infantry tactics, while this war is a war of artillery and drones.”. On one occasion, Nestor’s commander asked if trainers would at least consider the presence of drones on the battlefield. The answer was a damning “No.”. “You didn’t take your drones with you, and the only drone we have available is DJI Phantom 4, but we can’t even use it for bureaucratic reasons.” he recalls them saying. So they continued the training as is. Western-provided training fell short of considering current realities on the battlefield. The brigade’s first deployment in Ukraine was to hold the defense in the Svatove direction. However, Nestor commented: “Our battalion received zero defensive combat training. It was all assault oriented.” On a positive note, the sergeant says that our infantry learned to move and storm buildings and trenches. “If you consider this basic infantry training, it was good.” The infantry companies spend seven days practicing assault combined arms operations, storming different objectives. One day, it was a small town. Another day, it was an enemy trench. “We went through swamps, mud, and cold nights. Once, our instructor said that living through it on the battlefield would be easier if we experienced these conditions now. He was right.” But the companies received too little training on surviving the battlefield: “There was no camouflage training. The infantry didn’t learn how to conceal positions, build bunkers, and no defensive combat training.” In the end, Nestor adds that one of the things that they needed was EOD awareness and training. “You must understand the battlefield is littered with booby traps, mines, and explosive ordinance. We knew it before the deployment. Everyone in Ukraine knows it. We asked trainers if we could get any training on the topic.” But for some reason, the trainers refused to even discuss it. It was a taboo. “We regret the lack of EOD training specifically. It could have saved lives.” The deployment: After the training in Germany by a NATO country was complete, and after a short period in Ukraine, they were sent to reinforce Svatove direction. Problems appeared immediately. Nestor’s battalion was deployed shoulder to shoulder with one of the battalions of the 92nd brigade. The 92nd brigade soldier with the call sign “Zero” explains, “It appears that they were trained on another planet. What was obvious to us was a terra incognito for them.” He continues with a story of one of their first encounters with 32nd infantry: “We were driving 15km from the front line, and I noticed a military Ural (truck), with a full platoon clustered around near one of the small local grocery stores. They acted like they didn’t know it was a war zone. We had to stop and tell them that ZALA (russian) drone was reported around. The platoon commander did not know the enemy had such capabilities.”. A grave mistake in NATO training was that a company commander stayed in the trenches with the company. While it sounds heroic and may work when facing a poorly equipped enemy, russia is well-equipped and has hundreds of drones. This costly mistake was corrected after they lost a couple of positions. “The company commander has to have the eyes in the sky. He has to have his own drone stream and communicate with platoon or group commanders.” – It was a costly lesson for Nazar’s unit; “It cost us lives.” I asked why a company commander couldn’t stay in the trench. My friend from the 92nd Brigade explained that when the company commander is in the trench, he becomes another link in the chain of command: “Please understand controlling 100 soldiers in combat is a hard task. The higher-level commander watches a drone stream and makes decisions. He gives an order to the company commander over the radio. The company commander has to understand exactly what is going on to make decisions and pass orders to the platoons. For that, you need to observe the battlefield from the top. Try sitting under tank shelling and yelling over the radio while being yelled over the radio yourself. It is much more efficient when the company commander has his own command and control room with drone streams coming in. He can make calm and weighed decisions looking at the battlefield instead of listening to what is happening, and it is no longer a game of telephone.” “In the current battlefield, even the group or a platoon commander has to have a tablet with our special map application to be effective, and you can not rely on a stupid enemy anymore. They evolved.” summarizes Nestor, “We knew none of that, and no one could share the experience and knowledge with us. Now we are smarter, but the price was terrible.” Another capability that was undertrained might surprise: driving. It might sound absurd to some, but those familiar with the battlefield know how hazardous and costly even a simple drive toward or away from the front can be. Our drivers must be more experienced in driving at night; driving during the day is too dangerous. Training for night driving operations is critical to avoid casualties and the loss of valuable equipment. It is also emblematic: It may not seem a top priority for NATO training personnel with a shortened schedule. However, its importance must be communicated just like any other discrepancy mentioned here and elsewhere. Conclusion: The disconnect of the NATO training leads to a brigade being unprepared on the battlefield. Specifically, the lack of UAV, defensive, mine awareness, and EOD training has led to unnecessary casualties on the battlefield. To avoid a similar situation in the future, Ukraine needs to treat NATO training as basic infantry training instead of a complete cycle of brigade/battalion-level preparation. We need to perform post-training exercises and adapt the units to the newest technologies and tactics on the battlefield. Ultimately, the brigade has gained enough experience to be effective, but the cost could have been much smaller.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Chetan Murthy: Well that turned into a messy comment, but I’ve freed it from moderation.. I’m going to put this in tomorrow night’s update if that’s okay. In the future, for something this long, just email me the link and a description and I’ll put it in the actual update.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Adam L Silverman: Adam, sorry, when I saw it was in moderation, I figured “remove the links, that’ll let it pass”.  I shared it mostly b/c there are so many ex-military folks here, who can informedly comment, so please do share it tomorrow, and let’s see what people think.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Anonymous At Work

      @Adam L Silverman: I get that initial response but what happens when the shahed targets something on the river’s edge, oops, wrong side, sorry about the dead people?  I’m worried that Romania is making the same mistake NATO as a whole made/is making and letting Russia dictate the red-lines.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Anonymous At Work: Unless there is a an actual attack that can be definitively determined to be the result of Russia deliberately targeting a NATO country, there won’t be any invocation of Article 5. Frankly, even if there is, provided it is conventional and considered a one off, I expect there will be no invocation of Article 5. That is simply the unfortunate reality.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Jay

      @Chetan Murthy:

      It is a more than fair critique of “NATO Training”,

      other than it’s not NATO Training, (that’s a two year program to just get to the basics), it’s a NATO crash course created for the Ukrainians.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Betty Cracker: It is both strategically correct in the abstract and strategic malpractice in the application. In the abstract you don’t want a screw up or a one off to escalate. Because once you start escalating, it is very hard to deescalate.  In practice, however, given what we’ve seen of Putin since 2007, he embodies Lenin’s concept of probing with bayonets. “When probing with bayonets, when you find mush proceed. When you find steel, retreat.” Much of what Putin does is probe for mush. For almost 20 years he has almost always found mush. And that means if there is a deliberate attack and the alliance leadership works quietly to prevent the invocation of Article 5 in order avoid escalation, you’re just going to get more one side escalation from Putin.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Betty Cracker: In this case of Romania, nothing much. The Romanian Ministry of Defense has issued a formal statement by the Minister stating this was collateral and unintentional damage. I expect NATO will say nothing. Maybe the Romanians send a demarche to the Russians, but beyond that and checking the contingency planning, I doubt anything else is going to happen.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Prescott Cactus

      @Chetan Murthy:

      It doesn’t mention the length of training received, but one has to imagine that everyone thought it wasn’t enough.

      They were taught some / a little basic NATO soldiering, but not what they wanted, or everything they wanted. Many possible reasons, from strict adherence to class syllabus, instructors don’t know / understand desired topics and not enough time.

      “Our battalion received zero defensive combat training”.

      “There was no camouflage training.

      The infantry didn’t learn how to conceal positions, build bunkers, and no defensive combat training.” It was all assault oriented.”

      The lack of training on drones

      “We regret the lack of EOD training specifically. It could have saved lives.”

      Night driving doesn’t need special training as much as it needs Night Vision.

      Bingo:  “in the future, Ukraine needs to treat NATO training as basic infantry training instead of a complete cycle of brigade/battalion-level preparation.”

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Jay

      @Prescott Cactus:

      The NATO training program is 5 weeks long and most of the Ukrainian’s in the program have little to no combat experience or anything more than Ukrainian basic training or NCO School.

      Standard NATO basic is 6 months.

      Night driving does require special training.

      NVG’s flatten depth perception, eliminate peripheral vision and “flare” causing night blindness from even a strong flashlight. You can’t see side ditches, potholes, shell craters, landmines or even wrecks on the road very easily.

      NVG’s arn’t standard issue in the TDF or Ukrainian Army, and are reserved for Combat groups, not Drivers.

      As a result, most Ukrainian convoys at night, rely on black out headlights and convoy lights. Blackout headlights provide minimal forward illumination, mostly what is directly a few metres in front of the vehicle. Convoy lights let the vehicle behind you, if they know how to triangulate, where you are and what you are doing, and at times, everybody has to go completely dark.

      There is a reason why “truck driver” is a Military MOS that you earn after 6 months of training and practice after 6 months of Basic.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Another Scott

      @Jay: I’m reminded of that russian video from last year or so of a bunch of grunts hanging off an APC, partially blocking the drivers view, and them trying to bugout quickly.

      And the APC driving off the road into a ditch and killing a bunch of them when it rolled over.

      And that was in the daytime.

      :-/

      Nothing about war is easy.  And trying to do things well and do them quickly is often a contradiction in terms.

      Here’s hoping that the US/NATO trainers are taking these comments constructively and trying to improve the training as expeditiously as possible.

      Slava Ukraini!!

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Adam L Silverman: On “strategic malpractice” I register respectful disagreement.

      The threat of NATO direct intervention in Ukraine is, as we now know explicitly, the stick that restrains Russia from employing battlefield nuclear weapons and nerve gas to shore up its catastrophically failing war effort. Trading in that effective deterrence for the sake of avenging an attack on some Rumanian trees would be stark daylight madness.

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Carlo Graziani

      Jay, thanks for last night’s pointer to the TNSR article on Saddam’s understanding of the events and circumstances leading to the first Gulf War. It’s an intersting thesis, and I like reads that attempt to enter into the worldview of characters who behave as enigmatically as Hussein did, granting them the benefit of the doubt on their rationality.
      That said, it is still apparent that the worldview with which he and the people around him interpreted the end of the Cold War was utterly divorced from reality, and constructed from simplistically doctrinaire Arab grievance-driven nationalism, dressed up with Marxist-style dogma. He really brought that utterly avoidable catastrophe down on himself.

      The tragic irony is that in doing so, he finally discredited the ideals of Arab Nationalism, which whatever its faults was built from elements of Western political thought, and in so doing opened the door for the debilitating cancer of Islamism.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Ruckus

      @Another Scott:

      Nothing about war is easy.  And trying to do things well and do them quickly is often a contradiction in terms.

      No it is not. I wasn’t sent to war and I served during a rather large one – Vietnam. But I have been using the VA for a number of years and have known a lot of people that did go. My best buddy of over 50 yrs went to Vietnam in the Marines, and a number here likely did as well, one for sure and he comments a lot. I’ve seen some the after effects of war, up close. It isn’t pretty, in every sense of the concept. I was lucky, a way too big number were not.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Ruckus

      @Jay:

      Boot camp or basic training is not 6 months in the US. And it doesn’t take 6 months to learn to drive a truck. My specialty was to operate and repair electronic equipment, like gyrocompasses and all the ship’s internal communication equipment. I spent less than 6 months training for that. For my second year on board I ran that department on a DDG – a guided missile destroyer. And rebuilt one of the gyrocompasses. Under way.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Ruckus

      @Ruckus:

      I’m going to tell 2 little stories about war and the after effects. I once, at the VA 10-12 yrs ago, sat with a gentleman my age who had been to Vietnam. He wasn’t wounded – physically. He was deeply wounded mentally by war. I’ve never met anyone else in my life who was a pissed off at life for what he had to do in Vietnam. I have no idea exactly what he went through, I never want to know. I knew a man who joined the navy and was sent to Vietnam to be a forward machine gunner on an RPB (river patrol boat). Some had better enlistments than others – I was one of those, but I spent 2 months in a navy hospital and met men who’d lost legs, arms, one man was in a full body cast, neck to feet and both arms. Someone fed him and wiped his ass – for months. That’s not as bad as being buried. And a lot of the people I see at the VA now, fought in the middle east. And they are only better off because medicine has gotten a lot better.

      I’m not going to discuss the political side of war.

      I never got shot at.

      I have hung from the yardarm, 60-70 ft in the air, 20 feet from the centerline of the ship, (2 trips out and back – both sides) secured by a rope that I tied around my waist, working on our department’s equipment and if I fell it is extremely likely I wouldn’t be here now. And no I have not forgotten that day, 50+ yrs ago.

      I know men that haven’t forgotten far, far worse. And never will.

      Reply
    39. 39.

      Jay

      @Ruckus:

      Well, you are 15 or more years earlier than my experience. And you were Navy.

      We didn’t even get to shoot a gun until week 6, and it was a 1918 Canadian pattern Lee Enfield chambered in .22 long. Single shot, manual reload.

      At 6 months in, my MOS was rifleman, Basic Infantry. I basically knew how to dig a trench, service and shoot an L1A1, follow orders, use cover, march. Drones, nope, Night Vision, we didn’t have that, back up on a LMG, nope, Laptops, that’s a joke right?. LAW, nope. Tie shoes, yup. Wipe my ass properly, well if my Sgt, Major was watching.

      12 months in, different MOS, several full Company and Battalion exercises started. Qualified Rifleman.

      2 year’s in, good enough for deployment to Germany with the full Regiment.

      5 weeks is not any standard NATO training program, other than what we have whipped up for Ukraine.

      Their complaints are valid.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      Geminid

      Ukraine’s green anarchists in the trenches. From Polish(?) military commentator Visegrad 24 (@visegrad24):

         Video of Eco-Platform fighters attacking Russian positions.

      Eco-Platform is a Ukrainian green anarchist movement.

      All types of ideological groups have united under the Ukrainian Army to fight against Russia.

      Reply

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