Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

A consequence of cucumbers

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

Thanks for reminding me that Van Jones needs to be slapped.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

T R E 4 5 O N

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Hot air and ill-informed banter

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Tick tock motherfuckers!

… among the most cringeworthy communications in the history of the alphabet!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 571: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s Attack on Odesa

War for Ukraine Day 571: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s Attack on Odesa

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Last night thanks to an email heads up from commenter Dopey-o, I put up a supplemental update that Russia had put about a dozen TU 95 strategic bombers in the air, that they were headed to or over the Black Sea, and that meant that an aerial attack was most likely imminent on Ukrainian civilian and civilian infrastructure targets. This was indeed the case.

EuroMaidan News has the details:

In the early hours of 17 September, Russia attacked Ukraine with six Iranian-made Shahed one-way attack drones and ten cruise missiles, targeting Odesa Oblast, as Ukraine destroyed all the drones and six missiles, according to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Air Force says Russians launched six Shahed-136/131 UAVs attacked from the southeast and south (Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Crimea’s Chauda), while 10 X-101/X-555/X-55 air-launched missiles were fired from 9 Tu-95MS strategic aircraft from the Engels air base area in Russia’s Saratov Oblast.

“The main direction of the strike was the south of Odesa oblast. Air defenses were active along the route of the missiles and UAVs. Fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, mobile fire groups, and other means of destruction were involved in repelling the air attack,” the Air Force reported.

According to the Air Force, Ukrainian forces shot down 12 air targets, including all six Shaheds and six of 10 cruise missiles. The Ukraine South Defense Forces specified that four Shahed drones were downed in Mykolaiv Oblast, and two more in the Odesa skies.

“Enemy missiles hit the territory of a civilian agricultural enterprise in Odesa Oblast, the State Emergency Service is working [on the scene], and the local military administration will inform you of the consequences,” the Air Force said.

The Ukraine South Defense Forces added that the attack damaged agricultural land and a grain storage facility in Berezivskyi district of Odesa Oblast, and no one was injured.

As of the publication of this article, the Odesa Regional Military did not share any further details.

I have not seen anything published about the numbers of wounded or killed in last night’s attack.

There are also two cargo ships in port at Chornomorsk about 20 km from the city of Odesa. They are flagged in Palau, got to Ukraine by running the Russian blockade by hugging the western coast of the Black Sea adjacent to several EU and NATO member states, and they there to take on a full load of Ukrainian grain to be delivered to Egypt and Israel. They’ll use this western route to get back to and then through the Straits of Bosphorus. I think it is likelty that Russia was either aiming for them, as well as the granaries and storehouses in Odesa, and the Ukrainians brought those missiles and drones down or that last night’s attack was partially intended to deter them from leaving port for the return leg.

As of right now, Olga Honcharenko has no new posts, which means Russia has nothing in the air. Hopefully it stays that way so I only have to do one war update tonight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy will meet with all US senators during his visit to DC next week.

The cost:

Uman:

Klischiivka:

Bucha:

Cape Fiolent, Russian occupied Crimea:

Khakovka reservoir:

Here is an even deeper dive on the flood plain by a former NOAA meteorologist. First tweet from the thread, the remaining forty-three or so from the Thread Reader App. Since the videos no longer load from the Thread Reader app, if you want to see them you’ll have to click through on the first tweet below and scroll down.

2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
– Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
– Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
– Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
– 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned

topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…

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3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increasedImage
4/ Sentinel 6 data Dnipro River water level observations below the K-HPP peaked at 6.81 meters (11 JUN) falling back to about 0.6 meter near normal water level. @PoleTheia
hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/…

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5/ Sentinel 6 water level data near Nikopol prior to K-HPP destruction was 17.42 meters now varying between 6.06 and 6.36 meters (6 meters is pre-reservoir (1955) level average per Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023)
ipad.fas.usda.gov/lakes/images/l…
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6/ From 5 to 20 June, the water “mirror” area (aerial coverage of water) decreased to 24% of the original 2061 km**2 area, per Ukrainian Hydrological Institute using Sentinel 2 imagery
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7/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade (6 reservoirs on the Dnipro River):
– The Dnipro basin extends into western Ukraine, northern Belarus, and western Russian
– Kakhovka HPP was the 6th of 6 reservoirs on the Dnipro cascade.
Water Resources of Ukraine. State and Prospects of Use Peter Kovalenko https://www.riob.org/IMG/pdf/P-_Kovalenko_Prezentaciya1.pdf
Image
8/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade
The Kakhovka HPP Reservoir held 6.68 km**3 of useful water storage, about 36% of all useful water storage in the entire Dnipro Cascade.
riob.org/IMG/pdf/P-_Kov…

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9/ Sentinel 6 has water level trend data are available for 3 of 5 remaining reservoirs. Kyiv and Kaniv levels are above normal, while Kremenchuk (the largest reservoir by far) water level is below normal. Reservoir level anomaly conditions from @NASA
blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/Index
Image

10/ According to @Ukrhydroenergo , water is being discharged to generate electricity during repair of other TPP, HPP, and NPP power generation units necessary to improve system availability to meet winter demands. Trend graphs from @nasa BlueIce page.
en.uhe.gov.ua/news/operation…

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11/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 
12/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a (thanks @tom_bike!)
Chlorophyll-a algorithm does a good job identifying open water & water quality (eutrophication, algae) from dry land 
13/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note wetland area near Novovorontsovka seems to increase and decrease. 
14/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
Note bright green (elevated algae populations) in isolated pools. 
15/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note significant wetland area on right bank of Dnipro main channel (upstream of Nikopol) 
16/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a 
17/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 
18/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
The isolated wetlands near Vasylivka have such high algae concentration, it is difficult to discriminate from marsh grasses in NDVI. 
19/ Dnipro Floodplain Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
So we are seeing wetland in 20-25% of the Dnipro floodplain (former Kakhovka reservoir). Were there wetlands at these locations 80 years ago? 170 years ago? Let’s check old photography and maps
oldmaps.dp.ua/greatlug/?left…
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20/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Novovorontsovka: Wetlands remarkably similar now as in 1943 and 1853

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21/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Kapulivka: More extensive wetlands now than in 1943 and 1853

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22/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Vasylivka: Similar wetland now as in 1943 and 1853

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23/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Nikopol-Enerhodar: Different (larger) wetland area on right bank now than in 1943 and 1853; drainage likely disrupted due to dredging and levees.

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24/ “Great Meadow”/“Velykyi Luh”
Will the future look like the past?
“Velykyi Luh” was once home to the Zaporozhian Cossacks, with settlements, roads, buildings, all flooded in 1955.
Vasyliuk, et al, 2023
uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…

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Serhiy Vasylkivsky, Cossacks in the Steppe (1900s), oil on canvas. National Art Museum of Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Art_Museum_of_Ukraine

25/ This is a 90 day timeline of Dnipro floodplain images posted to Twitter since 6 June 2023. The images show the floodplain in 3 phases:
Draining -> Drying -> Pioneering
Image sources include: @aborealis940 @nexta_tv @KyivPost @astraiaintel @huruank @NOELreports @MamedovGyunduz
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26/ Month 2 – Drying “Takyrization”:
“In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic. But wet takyr soils become highly plastic, viscous, and impassable.”
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhov…
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea? 27 July 2023 Dr. Yakiv Didukh Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html https://www.nas.gov.ua/EN/PersonalSite/Pages/Contacts.aspx?PersonID=0000003695

27/ Month 3 – Pioneering
“Headlines stating ‘the bottom of the reservoir is turning into a desert’ that appear in the media are incorrect and short-sighted.” Prof Didukh
Prof Didukh believes the 75-80% the Dnipro floodplain will likely a woody thicket rather than a meadow.
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea? 27 July 2023 Dr. Yakiv Didukh Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html https://www.nas.gov.ua/EN/PersonalSite/Pages/Contacts.aspx?PersonID=0000003695
Image
28/ What will the Dnipro floodplain vegetation look like if the water level is left at the current level?
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
Oleksiy Vasyliuk, et al, 2023

@ecodiya @ackerm_ann @_UNCG_ uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive 22 August 2023 Authors: Oleksiy Vasyliuk, Viktor Parkhomenko, Ivan Moisiienko, Viktor Shapoval, Serhiy Panchenko and Oleksandr Spriahailo. We would like to thank Yevhen Simonov for his important advice. https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/

29/ After Ukraine removes Russian invades from its territories, the Dnipro floodplain probably won’t be left at the current water level. Several papers outline the 4 hydrotechnical options (see table); no single solution meets all national requirements.Image
30/ What is the potential for wheeled or tracked vehicles crossing the Dnipro floodplain to establish a beachhead in next 2-4 months? Prof Didukh “In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic.” 
31/ While June & July were relatively wet, August & September have been dry. Over a 90 day period, the Standardized Precipitation Index for the Dnipro basin has been near normal, but the past 30 days lack of rain has caused fire risks to most of Ukraine.
meteo.gov.ua/en/Pozhezhni-p…

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32/ EU GloFAS Hydrologic Prediction System has 2 river flow rate points on the Dnipro floodplain below K-HPP:
Seasonal Forecast Point #564 – Dnipro Power Plant 47.875N 35.075E
Seasonal Forecast Point #629 – Kakhovskoye Vodokhranilishche Ges 46.75N 33.15E
globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecas…
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33/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Dnipro HPP is lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023.Image
34/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Nova Kakhovka is also lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023 (although the forecast initial conditions seems off).Image
35/ Climatic soil moisture for Kherson is typically marginal to good through early November supporting wheeled and tracked vehicles, degrading after November.Image
36/ Frost depth will likely be sufficient to support wheeled vehicles in the Dnipro floodplain by mid to late January 2024 through February 2024 with thaws during this 6 week window.
meteoblue.com/en/weather/his…
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37/ Of course, the Dnipro floodplain near Nikopol has seen successful bridging operations back in WWII.
reddit.com/r/ww2/comments…
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38/ Description of the difficulty the Germans had defending their Nikopol bridgehead against the advancing Russians:
warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…
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39/ A beachhead across the Dnipro floodplain offers some advantages such as fewer fortifications than south of Orikhiv per @bradyafr

Unroll available on Thread Reader

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40/ The Russians have likely been redeploying forces away from the Dnipro left bank to defend UAF advances near Robotyne

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41/ While the *weather* may allow bridging operations at selected locations until November 1st and again in late January/February, building and protecting a pontoon bridge is very vulnerable to artillery, FPV and missile attacks, especially for the Dnipro.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

42/ Recall the RF bridging operation on 8 May 2022 where UAF artillery destroyed 500 RF troops and RF 80 vehicles in a rather modest bridging operation across the Siverskyi Donets River.

Image

43/ Ultimately, a successful UAF Dnipro bridging operation will come down to acceptable weather (river width and floodplain trafficability) and most importantly, local air defense and large enough bridgehead to push back RF artillery. /end 
Additional Reading:
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?
27 July 2023
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
22 August 2023
Authors: Oleksiy Vasyliuk, Viktor Parkhomenko, Ivan Moisiienko, Viktor Shapoval, Serhiy Panchenko and Oleksandr Spriahailo. We would like to thank Yevhen Simonov for his important advice.

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences
23 August 2023

@PeterGleick
Citation: Viktor Vyshnevskyi, et al (2023) The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences, Water International, 48:5, 631-647,

THE GLORIOUS ZAPORIZHZHYA

Rebuilding Ukraine’s ruined Nova Kakhovka dam pits history against economic reality
19 June 2023

Ukrhydro Telegram

“If the Kakhovskaya HPP is not rebuilt, there will never be agriculture in the South at all,” Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the economic discussion club, told UNIAN.t.me/ukrhydroenergo…

*invaders

Somewhere in Chechnya:

Baruk Khazâd! Khazâd ai-mênu!

What?

Anyhow, this was why I resisted posting the RUMINT that Kadyrov was in a coma and near death.

It’s HIMARS O’Clock!

Obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here is some Patron adjacent material from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

Open thread!

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    57Comments

    3. 3.

      Anonymous At Work

      Adam

      Thanks for update on the Dnipro floodplain.  It’s good to see so much marsh grass and the like regrow so quickly.  The dam bursting was very bad, but the possible industrial contamination was more concerning.  That’s long-term and hard to remove, or know when it is removed.  A dam, you kinda know when it is there, or not.

      And good to hear that UA is making progress in both Robotyne and Bakhmut, plus having a possible front across Dnipro.  In reading about the attrition of orcs under a new general, I am reminded of the Union’s early years when America’s generals were mostly noted for being drinking buddies with Congressmen.  Thankfully, any Russian Grants or Shermans have likely suffered windowitis by now.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Alison Rose

      All 6 drones and 6 out of 10 missiles seems pretty damn good. And that kaboom in the first video was excellent.

      An “all-senators meeting” means Zelenskyy is gonna be in a room with Tatertown and Ron Paul’s Degenerated Sperm, and no one should have to live through that. It’ll be interesting to see what comes out of the meeting.

      From Zelenskyy’s FB:

      Our people have once again demonstrated what Ukrainian invincibility is all about!

      At the Invictus Games, our heroes won a record number of awards for the Ukrainian national team in the history of such competitions – 34 medals: 12 gold, 14 silver and 8 bronze. An incredible result! Nazar Vozniuk, Volodymyr Tovkys, Mykola Zaritskyi, Yuliia Shevchuk, and Maksym Zubov became multiple medalists.

      Each such victory inspires and gives strength. Our invincibles are an example of fortitude. We are thankful and proud of you! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

      There’s a nice video with it.

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      oldster

      @Anonymous At Work:

      ”  A dam, you kinda know when it is there, or not.”

      True of Adam, as well.

      Thanks for the new info-dump!

      I hope that Zelenskyi’s visit can pry loose some more Rep. senators to create a filibuster-proof bloc of support for continued arms.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Chetan Murthy

      In a recent Xitter thread ( https://nitter.net/Noahpinion/status/1702741386267861082#m ) Noah Smith (Noahpinion) argued that once the USSR broke up in 1991, the rump Russian Federation was 80% Russian, and hence there would be no ethnic divisions that could lead to its breakup.  I wondered about this, b/c I’ve read so much about the many subject peoples of the Russian Federation (e.g. over at Winddow on Eurasia) and their desires for self-determination.  I also wondered what constitutes “Russian” b/c it seems like by fiddling with that definition, one can make Russia seems a really homogeneous state, even though it’s clear that there are indeed ethnic divisions.  And from long reading over the years at Window on Eurasia, it doesn’t seem like Russia is anywhere near as homogeneous as Noah makes it out.

      Anyway, I don’t know where I’d go to understand this question better, but I thought somebody around here might have some ideas.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Prescott Cactus

      As of right now, Olga Honcharenko has no new posts, which means Russia has nothing in the air.

      Olga, is a HF radio observer and it would seem a hero in many folks eyes, mine included. If we can read about her exploits and she is able to provide important warnings, why don’t the vatnicks scramble the transmission or go to another frequency or band ?

      Adam, thanks for everything you do.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      FelonyGovt

      That poor little girl looking at her destroyed kindergarten. Breaks my heart.

      Thanks so much as always for the in-depth report, Adam.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Geminid

      @oldster: I think there will be enough Republican Senators behind the military aid package to pass it. The problem is the Republican House caucus. When it comes to Ukraine, a majority of them seem to be sitting on the fence with their fingers in the air, and their gutless Speaker isn’t about to make a stand for Ukraine.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      wjca

      @Alison Rose: An “all-senators meeting” means Zelenskyy is gonna be in a room with Tatertown and Ron Paul’s Degenerated Sperm, and no one should have to live through that.

      Then again, those two might decide that they have better things to do, and just not show up.  One may hope.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Chetan Murthy: I have the census data from ROSSTAT somewhere that breaks down the ethnicity in the ethnic republics. I know off the top of my head that in Buryatia, Tyvan, and Ingushetia – all ethnic Mongol republics – the ethnic Buryats, Tyvans, and Ingush are all minorities that make up no more than 40% of the population in their ethnic republics. The Soviets did a good job moving ethnic Russians in and ethnic minorities out and around to dilute their populations in their native areas.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      hotshoe

      Thanks for the update on last night’s Russian cruise missiles.

      Now I’m wondering, why only 10 or 12 or 16? Why is Russia not sending hundreds of drones and missiles in one night? Seems to me, that would give them much better odds of getting through Ukraine defenses …

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Adam L Silverman

      @hotshoe: They don’t want to use them all at once. This way they can use some each night or every other night. Keeps the terror level at a certain threshold.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Odie Hugh Manatee

      I’m glad that tonight’s update is a brief one. ;)

      Thank you, Adam… I read these updates every evening and I really appreciate the work you put into them. There are so many facets to this war, some I was not aware of and you have done an excellent job of covering them in great detail.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Jay

      @hotshoe:

      The exhaustion of prewar missile stockpiles has impacted the composition of current Russian strike salvos. Compared with previous phases of Russia’s air war, the composition of Russian missile attacks has trended away from high-end missile systems like cruise missiles toward cheaper, less capable “low-end” systems like Shahed-136 one-way attack munitions (see below). In the first three months of 2023, during the tail end of Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s electric grid, Shahed-136s accounted for around 40 percent of long-range projectiles fired at Ukraine. Since April, 61 percent of long-range munitions Russia has employed have been Shahed-136 one-way attack munitions. Compared to cruise and ballistic missiles, Shahed-136 are generally easier to shoot down and more vulnerable to cheaper defenses like the German-made Flakpanzer Gepard and other gun-based systems. The Shahed-136’s warhead weight is also only between that of a cruise missile like Kh-101, and therefore causes less damage when they do make it through defenses.

      However, the decline in the quality of Russian long-range strike salvos is unlikely to continue. Rather, the overall composition of Russian strike packages will likely level off as Russian missile use becomes fully tethered to how many missiles it can produce. But it is improbable that Russian production of higher-end cruise and ballistic missiles will ever fall to zero. Despite Western sanctions and export controls of key microelectronic components, Russia has been able to find workarounds to continue producing missiles. In May, Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia currently manufactures around 60 cruise missiles, five Iskander ballistic missiles, and two Kinzhals monthly. In June, President Zelensky noted that Ukraine continues to find Western-made microelectronic components amongst the wrecks of Russian missiles. These components are likely finding their way into Russia via friendly third parties such as China.

      https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Geminid

      @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, I remember that. Gaetz said that Gallego was correct, that aid to Ukraine will come to a halt if Republicans take the House.

      The question is, can Gaetz back up his brag? In July, he introduced an amendment to the next Defense appropriations bill that would prohibit aid to Ukraine. It got 70 Republican votes, slightly under one third of his caucus.That does not mean the other two thirds support aid. I suspect a lot of them just didn’t want to take a stand.

      I read recent article in The Hill where Republicans Nancy Mace and Andy Biggs both said they thought more of their caucus colleagues were adopting an anti-aid stance now. But when asked if that meant they could stop an aid package, Biggs said he wasn’t sure, that “there are a lot of warhawks.”

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Geminid: We’ve got less than two weeks for the House to pass a continuing resolution, an omnibus appropriations bill, or all the separate ones or the government shuts down. Gaetz and his fellow travelers are pushing for the shutdown. Drawdown authorization to equip Ukraine ends on the last day of September. The Biden admin plan is to ask for a supplemental in the FY2024 appropriations to continue to equip Ukraine. Right now there is no supplemental as the House hasn’t drafted, let alone passed one. Because the House hasn’t passed any appropriations bills.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Adam L Silverman: Actually, the evidence from analysis of long, monthly-averaged time-series of Russian attacks is that they are firing more or less at the same rate as their missile/drone production/acquisition rate. I wrote up the analysis a few of months ago in a comment thread, but I can’t find it at the moment.

      Basically, they are limited by how rapidly they can either manufacture or buy more.

      ETA: I see that @Jay:  has a source who came to the same conclusion.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      Geminid

      @Adam L Silverman: Yes, an aid packsge faces a lot of hurdles and stumbling blocks. That does not mean one won’t be passed by November. I don’t see the Biden administration or Ukraine’s supporters in Congress, including Republicans, throwing in the towel.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: Correct. Which allows them to set a threshold and maintain it. If they fire off everything they have then they’re out of Schlitz for an extended period. The two different conceptualizations are neither contradictory nor mutually exclusive.

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Gin & Tonic

      Seeing reports that the Ukrainians have eliminated russian Col Andrey Kondrashkin. He was instrumental in the Mariupol operation, as well as the Ilovaisk massacre of 2014, among others.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Gin & Tonic: I was saving it for tomorrow night, but since you’ve spoiled the surprise:

      Full text of the tweet:

      Commander of the 31st Ulyanovsk Air Assault Brigade of the Russian Army, Colonel Andrei Kondrashkin was killed in Ukraine.
      https://t.me/a_shtirlitz/27417

      P.S: Also, just a couple of days ago it became known about the death of the commander of the 247th airborne infantry regiment, Colonel Vasily Popov.
      https://t.me/a_shtirlitz/27401

      Reply
    44. 44.

      YY_Sima Qian

      OT: the Chinese Spy Balloon saga ends on a whimper. Contrast w/ the hysteria & hot air blowing from both sides of the Pacific at the time…

      The bizarre secret behind China’s spy balloon
      …

      Now, seven months later, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tells “CBS News Sunday Morning” the balloon wasn’t spying. “The intelligence community, their assessment – and it’s a high-confidence assessment – [is] that there was no intelligence collection by that balloon,” he said.

      So, why was it over the United States? There are various theories, with at least one leading theory that it was blown off-track.

      The balloon had been headed toward Hawaii, but the winds at 60,000 feet apparently took over. “Those winds are very high,” Milley said. “The particular motor on that aircraft can’t go against those winds at that altitude.”

      …

      After the Navy raised the wreckage from the bottom of the Atlantic, technical experts discovered the balloon’s sensors had never been activated while over the Continental United States.

      But by then, the damage to U.S.-China relations had been done. On May 21, President Biden remarked, “This silly balloon that was carrying two freight cars’ worth of spying equipment was flying over the United States, and it got shot down, and everything changed in terms of talking to one another.”

      So, Martin asked, “Bottom line, it was a spy balloon, but it wasn’t spying?”

      Milley replied, “I would say it was a spy balloon that we know with high degree of certainty got no intelligence, and didn’t transmit any intelligence back to China.”

      Reply
    48. 48.

      Adam L Silverman

      @YY_Sima Qian: I was under the impression it was 11, which would be even less efficient. It is possible some were intended as decoys in case the Ukrainians had a way to target them.

      Reply
    50. 50.

      Andrya

      Adam, thanks for everything you do, but (speaking as the world’s worst Tolkien fanatic) thanks for including the Tolkien battle cry.  It made my evening.

      I would assert that the main theme of Lord of the Rings is desperate, do-or-die resistance to overwhelmingly powerful aggressive evil.  (A theme which, in my view, a man who lived in Britain throughout 1940 is entitled to write about.)  What could be more appropriate for a Ukraine thread?

      Reply
    51. 51.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Andrya: I’m glad somebody noticed, though it is unfair to Tolkien’s dwarves and Tolkien’s understanding of what they were to compare Kadyrov to them. But given he’s like 5’5 without his platform combat boots, the beard, and he had a hood on I couldn’t help it.

      And I agree regarding your understanding of one of the major themes of the Lord of the Rings. Though I would argue it was most likely derived from what Tolkien experienced in WW I. And despite his publicly stated distaste for allegory, large chunks of his work is allegory. The dwarves are clearly an allegory for Jews. He even once said that when he first went to meet his publisher that the Jewish one, with his beard and barrel chested, but short stature looked just like one of his dwarves. The pre-industrial Shire clearly stands in for the rural England of his childhood that he loved. Gondor is a society in decline into post-industrial decay.

      Reply
    53. 53.

      Carlo Graziani

      @YY_Sima Qian: And why no Kinzhals? An op on this scale, and they fire only Kalibrs, cruise missiles with a known low survival rate against current Ukrainian AD, but no “hypersonics”.

      Hasty tasking, and low availability of the better weapons, is my guess. The hasty tasking speaks to politicized process.

      Reply
    54. 54.

      Hangö Kex

      According to this Putin’s NKmart shopping list is not limited to munitions:

      The Kremlin intends to bring North Korean workers to occupied regions of eastern Ukraine, the National Resistance Center reported on Sept. 17.

      During a widely publicized meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Sept. 13, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin allegedly tried to convince the DPRK to open “diplomatic missions in Donetsk and Luhansk” as a way to facilitate the importation of North Korean workers to the occupied territories. The objective of these workers, according to the report, would be to aid construction projects in Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine.

      The Center stated that previous attempts by the Russian Federation to recruit Central Asian labor migrants into the military suggests that the Kremlin is unable to gather sufficient numbers of workers from within Russia.

      However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Sept. 15 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed no agreements during their meeting.

      https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-plans-to-bring-north-korean-workers-to-occupied-ukraine/

      Reply
    57. 57.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Hangö Kex: Yeah boyeeeez, that’ll be like when RU recruited Cuban workers (from Cuba) for construction in Russia …. and sent them to the frontlines in occupied Ukraine upon arrival.

      Reply

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