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You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

This really is a full service blog.

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The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

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You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

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Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

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Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 573: Presidents Zelenskyy & Biden Address the UN General Assembly

War for Ukraine Day 573: Presidents Zelenskyy & Biden Address the UN General Assembly

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: I want to apologize for the harshness of my comment in WaterGirl’s post last night. I don’t have issues with posts going up in temporal proximity to each other, including to these war updates. What was really irritating is that the open thread WaterGirl posted last night went up within three minutes of my publishing the war for Ukraine update. The issue is more about giving each post a bit more time before the next one goes up, so that each post has a bit of time to breath. Especially for the war updates. And I apologize to WaterGirl and our readers for being overly harsh and emphatic in expressing that.

Russia bombarded Lviv overnight committing another set of war crimes.

Last night, russian drones destroyed the Lviv warehouse of the non-governmental organization Caritas-Spes, and destroyed 300 tons of Vatican-issued humanitarian aid.
The UN Resident & Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown stated the following: «Humanitarian workers, facilities and assets are protected under international humanitarian law. Direct attacks or indiscriminate attacks are strictly prohibited. International humanitarian law is not an option, it is an obligation and must be upheld.»
This cynical terrorist attack took place just before the meeting of the UN General Assembly, at which the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the criminal state of russia is scheduled to speak.

During the day today the Russians committed an additional set of war crimes by attacking civilians evacuating Kupyansk:

Keeping these new war crimes in mind, here are Presidents Zelenskyy’s and Biden’s addresses to the UN General Assembly from earlier today. Video of President Zelenskyy’s address below followed by the English transcript after the jump and then the vide of President Biden’s address. I’m using the video from UATV English because the ones on the President of Ukraine’s website either miss the first few minutes or have someone speaking in Ukrainian over President Zelenskyy’s remarks, which were given in English.

Nowadays humanity must act in full solidarity to save lives – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech during the General Debate of the UN General Assembly

19 September 2023 – 22:17

Thank you very much!

I welcome all who stand for common efforts! 

And I promise – being really united we can guarantee fair peace for all nations. What’s more, unity can prevent wars.

Ladies and gentlemen!

Mr. Secretary General!

Fellow leaders!

This hall saw many wars but not as an active defender against the aggressions.

In many cases, the fear of war, the final war, was the loudest here – the war after which no one would gather in the General Assembly Hall again.

The Third World War was seen as a nuclear war. A conflict between states on the highway to nukes. Other wars seemed less scary compared to a threat of the so-called “great powers” firing their nuclear stockpiles.

So, the 20th century taught the world to restrain from the use of the weapons of mass destruction – not to deploy, not to proliferate, not to threaten with, and not to test, but to promote a complete nuclear disarmament.

Frankly, this is a good strategy. But it should not be the only strategy to protect the world from this final war.

Ukraine gave up its third largest nuclear arsenal. The world then decided Russia should become a keeper of such power. Yet, history shows it was Russia who deserved nuclear disarmament the most, back in the 1990s. And Russia deserves it now – terrorists have no right to hold nuclear weapons. No right!

But truly not the nukes are the scariest now.

While nukes remain in place, the mass destruction is gaining its momentum. The aggressor is weaponizing many other things and those things are used not only against our country but against all of yours as well.

Fellow leaders!

There are many conventions that restrict weapons but there are no real restrictions on weaponization.

First, let me give you an example – the food.

Since the start of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian ports in the Black and Azov Seas have been blocked by Russia. Until now, our ports on the Danube River remain the target for missiles and drones. And it is a clear Russia’s attempt to weaponize the food shortage on the global market in exchange for recognition for some, if not all, of the captured territories.

Russia is launching the food prices as weapons. The impact spans from the Atlantic coast of Africa to Southeast Asia. This is the threat scale.

I would like to thank those leaders who supported our Black Sea Grain Initiative, and program “Grain from Ukraine”. Thank you so much! United, we made weapons turn back into food again. More than 45 nations saw how important it is to make Ukrainian food products available on the market… from Algeria and Spain to Indonesia and China.

Even now when Russia has undermined the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we are working to ensure food stability. And I hope that many of you will join us in these efforts. We launched a temporary sea export corridor from our ports. And we are working hard to preserve the land routes for grain exports. And it is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater – making a thriller from the grain. They may seem to play their own role but in fact they are helping set the stage to a Moscow actor.

Second, weaponization of energy.

Many times, the world has witnessed Russia using energy as a weapon. The Kremlin weaponized oil and gas to weaken the leaders of other countries when they came to the Red Square.

Now the threat is even greater. Russia is weaponizing nuclear energy. Not only is it spreading its unreliable nuclear-power-plant-construction-technologies, but it is also turning other countries’ power plants into real dirty bombs.

Look please what Russia did to our Zaporizhzhia power plant – shelled it, occupied it and now blackmails others with radiation leaks.

Is there any sense to reduce nuclear weapons when Russia is weaponizing nuclear power plants? Scary question.

The global security architecture offers no response or protection against such a treacherous radiation threat. And there is no accountability for radiation blackmailers so far.

The third example is children.

Unfortunately, various terrorist groups abduct children to put pressure on their families and societies. But never before would mass kidnapping and deportation become a part of the government policy. Not until now.

We know the names of tens of thousands of children and have evidence on hundreds of thousands of others kidnapped by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine and later deported. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for this crime.

We are trying to get children back home but time goes by. What will happen to them?

Those children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine, and all ties with their families are broken… This is clearly a genocide.

When hatred is weaponized against one nation, it never stops there. Each decade Russia starts a new war. Parts of Moldova and Georgia remain occupied. Russia turned Syria into ruins. And if it hadn’t been for Russia, the chemical weapons would have never been used there in Syria. Russia has almost swallowed Belarus. It is obviously threatening Kazakhstan and the Baltic states… And the goal of the present war against Ukraine is to turn our land, our people, our lives, our resources into a weapon against you – against the international rules-based order. Many seats in the General Assembly Hall may become empty if Russia succeeds with its treachery and aggression.

Ladies and gentlemen!

The aggressor scatters death and brings ruins even without nukes but the outcomes are alike.

We see towns and villages in Ukraine wiped out by Russian artillery. Leveled to the ground completely! We see the war of drones. We know the possible effects of spreading the war into cyberspace.

The artificial intelligence could be trained to combat well – before it would learn to help the humanity. Thank God, people have not yet learned to use climate as a weapon. Even though humanity is failing on its climate policy objectives – this means that extreme weather will still impact normal global life and some evil state will also weaponize its outcomes. And when people in the streets of New York and other cities of the world went out on climate protest – we all have seen them… And when people in Morocco and Libya and other countries die as a result of natural disasters… And when islands and countries disappear under water… And when tornadoes and deserts are spreading into new territories… And when all of this is happening one unnatural disaster in Moscow decided to launch a big war and kill tens of thousands of people. We have to stop it!

We must act united – to defeat the aggressor and focus all our capabilities and energy on addressing these challenges.

As nukes are restrained, likewise the aggressor must be restrained and all its tools and methods of war. Each war now can become final, but it takes our unity to make sure that aggression will not break in again.

And it is not a dialog between the so-called “great powers” somewhere behind the closed doors that can guarantee us all the new no-wars-era, but open work of all nations for peace.

Last year, I presented the outlines of the Ukrainian Peace Formula at the UN General Assembly. Later in Indonesia, I presented the full Formula. And over the past year the Peace Formula became the basis to update the existing security architecture – now we can bring back to life the UN Charter and guarantee the full power of the rules-based world order.

Tomorrow I will present the details at a special meeting of the UN Security Council.

The main thing is that it is not only about Ukraine. More than 140 states and international organizations have supported the Ukrainian Peace Formula fully or in part. The Ukrainian Peace Formula is becoming global. Its points offer solutions and steps that will stop all forms of weaponization that Russia used against Ukraine and other countries and may be used by other aggressors.

Look – for the first time in modern history, we have a real chance to end the aggression on the terms of the nation which was attacked. This is a real chance for every nation – to ensure that aggression against your state, if it happens, God forbid, will end not because your land will be divided and you will be forced to submit to military or political pressure, but because your territory and sovereignty will be fully restored.

We launched the format of meetings between national security advisors and diplomatic representatives. Important talks and consultations were held in Hiroshima, in Copenhagen, and in Jeddah on the implementation of the Peace Formula. And we are preparing a Global Peace Summit. I invite all of you – all of you who do not tolerate any aggression – to jointly prepare the Summit.

I am aware of the attempts to make some shady dealings behind the scenes. Evil cannot be trusted – ask Prigozhin if one bets on Putin’s promises. Please, hear me. Let unity decide everything openly.

While Russia is pushing the world to the final war, Ukraine is doing everything to ensure that after Russian aggression no one in the world will dare to attack any nation. Weaponization must be restrained. War crimes must be punished. Deported people must come back home. And the occupier must return to their own land.

We must be united to make it. And we will do it.

Слава Україні!

Here is President Biden’s address. It should be queued up to start at the 2:30 mark, which is when he approaches the podium. There does not appear to be a transcript posted at WhiteHouse.gov.

In addition to Presidents Zelenskyy’s and Biden’s remarks to the UN General Assembly today, Speaker McCarthy had some thoughts. ABC News has the details: (emphasis mine)

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said he has questions for the Ukrainian president when asked if he plans to commit to another round of aid.

“Is Zelenskyy elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything and I think I have questions for him,” McCarthy told ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott.

“Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.

Ukraine funding is a key point of intraparty strife as Congress barrels toward a Sept. 30 deadline to pass a spending measure or enter a government shutdown.

The White House has asked for an additional $24 billion to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invaders — a request backed by congressional Democrats.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has publicly advocated for continued defense and financial assistance. But McCarthy is more skeptical, and a growing number of House Republican hard-liners are adamantly opposed to sending more money to the war-torn nation.

McCarthy has repeatedly said the United States should not be giving Ukraine a “blank check” though has vehemently criticized Russia’s actions.

“Look what Russia has done — invade — is wrong,” McCarthy said Tuesday. “It’s an atrocity, we want to make sure that ends. I also have always said from the beginning, no matter what the issue is, I want accountability for whatever the hardworking taxpayers spend their money on. I want to plan for victory. So no, I will listen to the American public. I will follow what happens in Congress, but I will have questions for President Zelenskyy.”

Since McCarthy is speaker in name only and only so long as he manages to continue appeasing every possible faction in the GOP House caucus, this has nothing to do with whether President Zelenskyy answers his questions. It has everything to do with what the House Freedom Caucus, specifically Gaetz and Green, as well as what Trump wants. And what those three all want is whatever Putin wants. Expect a government shutdown at the end of the month. Expect no $24 million supplemental for Ukraine.

The Ramstein 15 also held a meeting today regarding ongoing military aid and assistance to Ukraine.

Bakhmut:

I have not had a chance to watch this all the way through yet, so I don’t know how graphic it is. Here is the description of the video posted by the 3rd Brigade at their YouTube page. The full YouTube video is below Illia Ponomarenko’s tweet. So just in case:

WARNING!! WARNING!! MAY CONTAIN GRAPHIC & INTENSE IMAGES!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Video footage shot on a GoPro by a medic of the 1st Mechanized Battalion of the Third Assault Brigade, a friend of the Rebbe, whose photo with a Hasidic pilgrim in Uman recently stirred up the Internet.

According to the Rebbe, in civilian life he was a programmer, project manager in an IT company, and engaged in various types of business. Now he is saving lives of the Third Assault Brigade soldiers. “I am engaged in medical reconnaissance, evacuation, and work at the staging area,” he explains.

The video, filmed in the winter and spring of 2023 in Bakhmut, Rebbe jokingly calls a travel blog. It consists of a series of fragments sketches from his life in the city amid constant enemy shelling and fighting.

In addition to providing medical aid and rescuing his wounded comrades, the video footage shows the Rebbe’s daily life. In particular, a visit to an empty store, rescuing a cat abandoned in an apartment, meeting with locals hiding in the basement with a parrot, cats and chickens.

“So many things have lost their value for them and for us. There is a computer, there are speakers, who needs it now?” he states.

Despite the very sad reality, the combat medic takes everything with humor and calmness. And even manages to notice the beauty of the first signs of spring in the yards of the city bombed by the occupiers. Behind the scenes, we hear the Rebbe’s ironic and philosophical comments about everything that is happening to him. In the background, there are constant explosions from overflights that sound farther away and then very close.

 

 

Klischiivka and Andriivka:

The Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:

Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

And we’ve got another Russian war crime in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

And one more in Kherson:

Yerevan, Armenia:

“Putin is killing Armenians by the hands of Azerbaijanis…. Damn you, scum”: outside the Russian embassy in Yerevan shouting “Lavrov is a c*ck” and “Putin is a cocksucker”.

“Delusions of restoring the Soviet Union in the inflamed brain of the fascist, dwarf, criminal Putin forced him to commit war crimes in Ukraine. Today Putin is committing war crimes in Karabakh.

Vladimir Putin is a despicable coward. Putin is killing Armenians by the hands of Azerbaijanis. Putin has been putting his puppets in power in Armenia for 30 years to carry out his brazen imperial policy. Damn you, scumbags,” said one of those present.

“Armenia should throw Russia out of its territory. The Russian military base should get the hell out. Armenia should withdraw from the CSTO, CIS and EurAsEC. These are all organizations that Putin created to enslave and colonize the peoples of the post-Soviet space,” having added a rally to the Guchnomovites.

The disputed territory known as Artsakh to the Armenians and Nagorno-Karabakh to the Azerbaijainis:

Full text of the first tweet above:

Azerbaijan started “anti-terrorist measures” in Karabakh with the aim of restoring the constitutional order in the country — Ministry of Defense of the country. “The command of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation and the leadership of the Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center are informed about the ongoing activities,” the ministry said.

Last night in comments Chetan Murthy asked:

Adam, I’ve asked this question before: For many centuries, Ukraine was ….. under the same yoke as the rest of Russia.  And even as recently as 30+ years ago, the levels of corruption in Ukraine were eye-watering.  I’m reminded of the recent news of not-isolated reports of brutality by (some) AFU officers towards their subordinates in Ukraine, too.

And YET, AND YET, Ukraine is reacting to this news in a completely different way that Russia did and is doing.[1]  Ukraine is reacting by trying to punish the perpetrators and thereby expunge the crimes, prevent them from recurring.  This is a big deal.

[1] I’ve read that all attempts to stamp out dedovshchina in Russia have failed.

I wonder why and how this change happened in Ukraine, and whether people have studied it and how to replicate it.

B/c I’m pretty convinced that without some sort of thoroughing change in Russia, it’ll never be different than it’s been: a hellhole for its subject peoples and a danger to everybody else.  If somehow we could figure out how to replicate what Ukraine is doing, but everywhere in Russia, that’d be positive good.  What I fear, is that the real motivating factor is the sacrifices that so many Ukrainians are making in the cause of their freedom.  That’s going to be difficult (and more importantly, morally unacceptable) to replicate.

Let’s leave aside the unfortunate choice of yoke, which Chetan went on to apologize for and deal with the question. First, for the non-Russian speakers, dedovschina is hazing and in this context hazing within the military by superiors of their subordinates. I wanted to use the video in the tweet that Dmitri is quote tweeting to partially answer this, but it will not embed. When you click on the three dots and click on embed the page that comes up says the tweet has been deleted. It is of Russian soldiers beating other Russian soldiers in a trench. If you want to see the video, click through on this link.

Full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

I bet a lot of them think this is the right thing to do. Feels like this country hasn’t evolved since 1917 or so. They all like these roleplay games with officers and subordinates, weird imperial inclinations, and cosplaying early 20th-century personalities. This behaviour is also quite similar to prison relationships.

And Girkin is one of the finest examples of it.

To get to Chetan’s question, there are real, substantive differences in the histories of Ukraine and Russia. Or of the states, statelets, duchies, provinces, and the societies within all of them that become modern Ukraine and modern Russia. The popular or commonly understood history of Ukraine and Russia is largely based on the Russian version of that history, which is a Russian invention that revises the actual histories of both states and societies. Much of Russia’s official history actually just takes the history of the founding of Kyiv, which paves the way for what will eventually become Ukraine and displaces it to what is now Russia, specifically to the founding of Moscow. Without going into excruciating detail, what is now Ukraine did not, just as most states and societies did not, evolve in a straight line from the founding of Kyiv to 2023 Ukraine. Parts of western Ukraine were at one point part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, while others parts were under Polish rule. Eastern Ukraine was, at times, also under different states’ or societies’ control; from the Mongol Golden Horde to its eventual Turkic successor to Russia itself. And at other times these areas of what is now Ukraine were under the control of what we would think of as Ukrainians. So Ukraine has its own unique history. A history that includes more European elements in some parts and more Asian elements in other parts.

I think another major issue is through social learning. Russia’s history of WW II is factually incorrect. It casts the Soviet Union, specifically Soviet Russia as the NAZI’s real targets and victims, the Allies as largely useless, the Soviet Union as the real victor, and the Jews, at best, not much help, and at worst collaborators with the NAZIs against the Soviets. For Russians, World War II is the Great Patriotic War. And the way it has been written and taught in official, scholarly, and popular histories, as well as popular Russian cultural depictions have not changed much despite the Soviet Union’s demise in the early 90s. Moreover, under Putin it has been purposefully developed into an almost cult like concept. It culminates in the Victory Day and Immortal Regiment parades that commemorate the end of WW II and is referred to as pobedobesie, which means victory mania or victory frenzy. Pobedobesie has been worked into patriotic-martial education in Russia beginning in kindergarten. I’ve seen dozens and dozens of photos of even toddlers dressed up like Russian WW II soldiers and pushed along in strollers made to look like tanks in these parades. Similarly, I’ve seen dozens of photos of school children marching during the school day holding pictures of Russian WW II veterans as if they were marching in the Immortal Regiment parade. Here’s an interesting research write up on the phenomenon of Russian patriotic-martial education. Here’s one that deals with how this curriculum is used to create a new generation of Russian’s loyal to Putin. Here’s a chapter published by the University of Helsinki on the phenomenon. And here’s a sociological study of it. Needless to say this has all been turbocharged over the past 18 months and that’s on top of the fact that Putin and his government had been expanding it every year since he first came to power in the mid-aughts.

I think the military hazing you’re asking about is one part socially learned military behavior via military indoctrination to undertake it, one part socially learned behavior from Russian patriotic education to accept it as a good patriot, and one part socially learned behavior from Russian societal dynamics because Russia is a textbook example of a differentially socially adapted society. Much of what we think of as weird or bizarre or deviant or destructive Russian social, cultural, political, behavioral dynamics are really adaptations that have developed to allow Russians to survive the state, society, culture, economy, and polity that they live in. From outside they look bizarre, weird, bad, wrong. From the inside they make perfect sense because without them Russians couldn’t survive being Russians in Russia given how the state, the society, the economy, and the religion are organized.

That’s my professional assessment and I’m sticking to it.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

77Comments

  1. 1.

    Jimmm

    Adam – Is there any good solution to the grain embargo situation?  It seems like Ukraine should be doing everything possible to protect their relationship with Poland and the Baltic states… Surely there is some way to allow transiting of grain cargoes without depressing local grain markets in eastern europe

     

    Also, THANK YOU!  Your nightly updates are greatly appreciated.

  2. 2.

    Chetan Murthy

    Adam, thank you for your answer.  If I can continue the question:

    I meant dedovshchina as an example, along with pervasive corruption.  If I take your answer as meaning that Ukraine’s history is simply different from Russia’s and that is the reason that things are turning out differently (and perhaps making the same observation about the Baltic states), then this leads naturally to the inference that maybe nobody actually knows how to help Russia and Russians fix themselves.  Which naturally leads to the conclusion that we cannot expect Russia to become a normal country: they’ll remain lepers, and we need to cordon them off from the world for the foreseeable future.

    I finished reading Keir Giles’ Moscow Rules, and while he tries to be optimistic, it’s pretty clear that the above is his conclusion about Russia: they have a centuries-long history of being a danger to all their neighbors, and this is based on their culture and history, their entire way of being Russians.  It’s not going to change.

  4. 4.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jimmm: BTW, Denys Davydov had some strong words about this tonight.  He is pretty unhappy that Ukraine is getting confrontational about this: he feels that Poland (especially) is doing enormous work for Ukraine, and the last thing Ukraine should do is to repay them by helping wreck their agricultural sector.

  5. 5.

    West of the Rockies

    Are there any real, painful repercussions for on-going Russian atrocities?  Day after day, they are vile, heinous,  monstrous.   WTF?  Are there any consequences?

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jimmm: I don’t know. Some of the issues appear to be concerns by states like Poland about not having their own agricultural sector depressed by Ukrainian grain being imported. This is going to a long term problem that will have to be worked out as part of Ukraine’s eventual ascension into the EU.

  8. 8.

    Old School

    Added Trump, Gaetz, and Green, “Yes, what is your plan for victory?  Please give details.  Asking for a friend.”

  9. 9.

    Jimmm

    @Chetan Murthy:

    It feels like such a small financial hit…  is there no way for the EU or the US to backstop grain prices?  Destroying regional relationships for tens of millions of dollars in grain sales seems incredibly shortsighted.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chetan Murthy: Russia is a differentially socially organized society based on its unique history and that history’s effect on its politics, government, governance, society, culture, economy, and religion. Does it share commonalities with other states and societies that have always been some form of authoritarian systems? Without a doubt. But despite those commonalities, the solutions to the problems that plague Russia will have to be developed within the Russian context or they will be completely ineffective. There’s no guarantee that a properly contextualized strategy to help Russia would work, but one that isn’t developed to make sense for Russians is definitely doomed to failure.

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    Man, you know what. Fuck McCarthy all to fucking hell. If he’s trying to get me to hate him as much as I hate TIFG and putin, he’s doing a bang-up job. What a sneering, condescending, hateful, small little man he is. He’s one of the GOPers I’d like to air-drop into the Donbas somewhere and let him find his own way out, and if he does, then we can ask him how he feels about giving more aid. Spineless little putz.

    Zelenskyy’s speech was wonderful. I wonder if part of him wanted to get up there with a big screen TV and just play videos from Bakhmut and Kupyansk and Andriivka and other places while everyone in the room has their eyes held open, Clockwork Orange style. Especially that smarmy russian rep who ignored him the whole time he was speaking, except to grin like the slimy genocide supporter he is.

    Some nice photos from Zelenskyy’s FB page of him meeting with leaders from South Africa, Kenya, Israel, the European Council, and the UN. And a video from Olena Zelenska with her remarks to a meeting at the UNGA on russia’s war crimes against Ukrainian children. (She’s speaking in Ukrainian but it has English subtitles.)

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  13. 13.

    BellyCat

    Saw the flap last night (to my chagrin). Two things:

    1. The Russian invasion is incredibly triggering for me and possibly others. The world is watching the equivalent of Jewish extermination during WWII (substitute a nation instead of a religion, today) and normalizing it as a situation that the Ukrainians, themselves alone, must solve.  I do not always or often have the strength or resilience to process or digest this type of genocide, despite the  expertise that Adam puts great effort into sharing. This is no reflection on his efforts, which are much appreciated. The topic is simply far bigger than any individual.

    2. This situation is so incredibly serious and deplorable that treating Adam’s posts as “open threads”, wherein one might feel more motivated to comment on Boobert’s crotch  grabbing antics feels INCREDIBLY DISRESPECTFUL to Ukrainians. Thus, and with no offense intended to Adam, I prefer contemporaneous threads — one dedicated and deathly serious, and another which permits digestion of lighter fare. (But what I really prefer is threaded topics which can operate simultaneously).

  15. 15.

    Carlo Graziani

    I’m having a hard time assimilating Tatarigami’s point about rail lines as natural military boundaries.

    Rivers/streams are easy to understand as boundaries—they are obstacles, requiring engineer intervention. Treelines make sense too, as they provide natural defensive cover, both from approaching ground forces and from aerial surveilance. But rail lines seem weird as a boundary. I suppose that if they were always on elevated embankments they would delineate topographic obstacles providing defensive cover. But is that how Ukrainian rail lines are built? Or do they run on flat land?

    Very confused. The infantry tactics experts here may perhaps shed some light on this.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chetan Murthy: It won’t be GRU, Wagner was the Russian GRU’s proxie. MOD and FSB most likely. My educated guesstimate would be GUR. This seems to be Budanov’s type of thing.

  18. 18.

    Yarrow

    Thanks as always, Adam. I’ve heard several times now on various news shows that polling shows that Americans for the first time aren’t supportive of more aid to Ukraine. Or something like that – I’ve kind of heard it in passing so I might have it a bit wrong, but that’s the gist. I would guess that’s part of why Republicans are asking questions about “the plan for victory” and what’s happened to the money. They think its an opening politically they can exploit. And of course there’s their Russian masters.

  19. 19.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Yarrow: The polls cannot be trusted to be anything approximating an accurate measure of US public opinion, because the polling outfits skew reactionary nowadays.

  22. 22.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Russia’s history of WW II is factually incorrect. It casts the Soviet Union, specifically Soviet Russia as the NAZI’s real targets and victims, the Allies as largely useless, the Soviet Union as the real victor, and the Jews, at best, not much help, and at worst collaborators with the NAZIs against the Soviets.

    The Lebensraum thing was aimed to the East, but the Nazis didn’t exactly spare the West anything at all, even though they were more-or-less considered polluted Aryans, not real ones, like Germans. Also, too, no less a figure than Stalin acknowledged that western aid was decisive in the Red Army’s successful counteroffensive into Germany itself, particularly the humble Studebaker truck, in both tactical and logistical roles.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Yarrow: This is the most recent reporting I can find:

    Big majorities of Americans continue to support economic sanctions on Russia and sending aid and supplies to Ukraine. A smaller majority also would keep sending weapons.

    But Republicans have become increasingly divided over this.

    Republicans have become more resistant to sending aid, which they favored back in February, and they have become more opposed to sending weapons, specifically. And most of them say the administration should generally be doing less to help Ukraine.

    As has long been the case, Americans don’t support sending U.S. troops.

    Overall, most Republicans — and four in 10 independents — think the Biden administration should be doing less to help Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Most Democrats think the administration is handling things about as they should be.

    Charts and graphs at the link.

  26. 26.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Most of Ukraine is relatively flatish. And yes railroads are normally built up slightly on the nominal ground, a few inches to a foot or so just depending on the ground. And bridges for water spans. IOW pretty normal RR concepts. But railroads can carry a lot more for long distances at reasonable speed for less cost than trucks would, which is why they are used in most countries, including the US. Ukraine is a country that is seemingly built for RR.

    As for them being a divide between armed forces they are, in a flat farming land, like Ukraine, even if not much, higher ground, and therefore useful as a divider. Maybe especially in a flat area like a lot of Ukraine.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    More from the Indo-Canadian drama, from WaPo:

    India expels Canadian diplomat as dispute over alleged assassination escalates
    …
    Weeks before Trudeau’s announcement, Canada had asked its closest allies, including Washington, to publicly condemn the killing, according to a Western official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a diplomatically sensitive matter. But the requests were turned down, the official said.
    …

    The alleged assassination on June 18 of Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, was raised privately by several senior officials of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing nations in the weeks before this month’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi.

    But it was not mentioned publicly ahead of the meeting, which Western leaders viewed as an important coming-out party for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Western official said. The Biden administration and its allies have been working to court India, which they see as a crucial counterweight to China.

    …
    Trudeau has aired the allegations at an awkward moment: Western nations, led by the Biden administration, are looking to woo India as a geopolitical and trade partner, as a counter to China. They have refrained from criticizing Modi over India’s increasing authoritarianism.
    …
    The Trudeau government this month announced a public inquiry into foreign interference in the country’s affairs by China and others. Opposition parties demanded the probe after the Globe and Mail newspaper reported allegations of election meddling by Beijing.

    Members of diaspora communities from India, China and Iran have long accused Canadian authorities of failing to take seriously their claims that foreign governments are seeking to harass and intimidate them on Canadian soil. Canadian intelligence officials have named India as a source of interference.

    “A targeted killing is not a country’s first step in foreign interference in a country,” said Jessica Davis, a former analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. “It’s a real escalation. … There is a certain element of failure in this in the sense that it’s the responsibility of the [Royal Canadian Mounted Police] and CSIS to detect and disrupt this kind of activity before it takes place in Canada.”
    …

    Perverse incentives driven by geopolitical rivalry.

  29. 29.

    dr. luba

    So how does the Pope feel now about the glorious russian heritage of the “great, enlightened Russian Empire of so much culture, of so much humanity”?

  30. 30.

    hotshoe

    UN Rep says: “Direct attacks or indiscriminate attacks are strictly prohibited. International humanitarian law is not an option, it is an obligation and must be upheld”

    Must be upheld. Or else what?
    Some UN person will make another statement wringing their hands and doing nothing?
    What?
    What the hell are they doing about Russian war crimes?

  31. 31.

    bookworm1398

    As a result of the India killing, India Canada trade talks have been suspended. UK says it’s going ahead with its trade talks with India though.

    Am I the only one who is shocked that India is killing political dissidents full stop? I didn’t think it was something they did.

  33. 33.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Chetan Murthy: Russia: they have a centuries-long history of being a danger to all their neighbors, and this is based on their culture and history, their entire way of being Russians. It’s not going to change.

    My opinion after watching all of Yale Professor Timothy Snyder’s lecture series of the history of Ukraine (and surrounding areas). The TL:DR is that Russia was not really noteworthy until they got steamrolled by the Golden Horde. They were made into a vassal state and paid annual tribute. The Khan trained them up to fight the Mongol way and used them as shock troops. When the Golden Horde’s power waned, Russia quit paying tribute and used their army to start conquering it’s neighbors one by one. And the rest, as they say, is history.

  34. 34.

    Adam L Silverman

    @frosty: I’m not amused, but it isn’t going to change, so I might as well apologize for being harsh. The plan was for me to actually stay with the old site when this new build went online. I let Alain and Levenson talk me out of sticking with that plan.

  35. 35.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    lost a long comment going into details, but yeah, rail lines are a defensive structure. Steel wheels don’t climb steel rails, so grades are kept as flat as possible. Where you come to a hill, you make a cut, which acts as a tank trap and for infantry, a killing zone. In low areas, you build up the grade with a berm, composed of a base layer of rock and then coarse gravel. As it has to support thousands of tons of freight, it’s almost as solid as rock.

    The berm, makes a good to great reverse slope position. At Ypres, the Allies built storerooms, hospitals, accomodation, armouries, up to three stories tall on the reverse slope of the railway berm.

    In defense, ideally you have time to properly entrench, which attacker’s can’t do. A vehicle attack leaves the soft underskin exposed while the gun’s can’t depress to engage.

    In addition, single tracks are often cleared of trees, brush and foliage out to 20 metres of each side of the track, double tracks result in a 60 metre cleared zone.

    In attack, along the rail track, cuts are deadly traps, berms are to your advantage.

    Across, it’s all on the defender’s advantage.

  36. 36.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Ruckus: railroads are normally built up slightly on the nominal ground, a few inches to a foot or so just depending on the ground.

    Google can be a helpful tool for these types of questions. Railroad roadbeds are built within certain minimum standards. In short they have a drainage ditch running along both sides of the roadbed. The ditch is three foot deep standard and the actual road bed is another minimum one foot above ground level. But that is on flat ground and in any kind of elevated terrain you will see more of a drop off on the downhill side of the roadbed as the tracks always go around a hill and never directly up/down a hill

  37. 37.

    catfishncod

    @Adam L Silverman: THANK YOU ADAM. You have phrased in a professional manner something I’ve been trying for *years* to coherently articulate.

    “The solutions to the problems that plague Russia will have to be developed within the Russian context or they will be completely ineffective.”

    THIS!!! A lesson that Western “deep thinkers” keep missing despite being the key to success or failure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Panama, Vietnam, Cuba, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Germany, all the way back to the Philippines! It gets articulated now and then only to get swamped by another wave of clueless idealists, whether neoliberal or neoconservative or New Left or now neofascist. Other peoples’ experiences can inspire, they can instruct, they can forewarn, but for anything to take hold, it has to become intrinsically Russian or it will only make things worse (as the neoliberals did with their idealistic blundering in the ‘90s).

    Transplants must be matched as closely as possible to the recipient, or they will suffer rejection. It’s especially easy for us Americans, who are the cultural equivalent of Type AB+ universal recipients, to forget or ignore this.

    And no one trying to brainstorm ways out of the Russian strategic self-pwn loop has any hope of success if they can’t see the problem clearly.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    as the tracks always go around a hill and never directly up/down a hill

    In Canada, we mostly go through the hill, mountains we tend to tunnel and circle.

    People tend not to realize what “flat” is for a train. Little humps on the roadway that their car doesn’t even think about, can stop a train.

    BTW, a bunch of the trestles that were built early on to bridge low terrain, were buried over the years with ballast. Still a trestle there though.

  39. 39.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Ruckus: @Jay: @Grumpy Old Railroader:  Thanks, I think I understand. Rail lines require some engineering that creates enough topography to make them into valuable defensive features, and problematic offensive crossings.

    It had never occurred to me that these sorts of elevation changes (5′ or less), across a narrow line, sustained for many miles, might constitute a serious infantry obstacle-breaching problem.

  40. 40.

    glc

    @BellyCat: Adam’s posts are open threads, by his choice, so I think it would make sense for the rest of us to leave that alone and focus on things that matter.

    (In a general way, no matter how this thread operates, its content is going to make me grouchy, and I’m sure I’m not alone.)

  41. 41.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    there are very few places anywhere, where the elevation changes are 5 feet or less over several miles of distance.

    We joke about leaving Edmonton and being able to see the lights of Toronto in the distance, but there are major berm’s up to 25 feet tall, ten thousand metre bridges crossing gullys and 200 foot deep cuts into hills in the “flat land”.

    People also don’t realize that a corner that your car can take easily at 120kmh, will derail a train easy.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @catfishncod: I read your reply re: Moscow Rules, and you’re right that Giles cites Kennan in his book.  Also, I subscribe to your conclusion — that Russia and Russians got that way over centuries, and it’ll take hard work to change them — work they’ll have to want to do.

    One of the things Giles bangs on several times, is that the times when Russia looked like it was changing, were pretty much moments in time when Russia was weak and couldn’t …. be their real self.  It’s not like Russia was somehow all sweetness and light in the 90s: they simply didn’t have the firepower to do much harm.  The minute they got that firepower, they want back to their evil ways.  Another thing he harps on, is the foolishness of Westerners who repeatedly reach for “oh, they’re changing!  We should engage!” over and over, each time to be slapped down by events.

    To my mind, this is why Giles wrote the book: to try to educate people about why Russia is most likely not to change, and therefore we can’t approach them like a normal nation that responds to outreach, compromise, etc.

    OH, OH this was another thing he harped on: that when normal countries meet and negotiate, it is normal for each to give up something to the other, to get a nonzero-sum outcome.  But for Russia, it never works like that: they’re always going to demand the whole cake, and then treat their agreeing to take only half of it as a gigantic sacrifice.

    I feel like a way of putting it might be the old Lenin aphorism: ‘You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw‘.  That’s the only way to approach Russia, it seems.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Captain C: @Grumpy Old Railroader: You’re right on the history, but I feel like it doesn’t really explain how Russia got the way it is.  I mean, the Romans were famously ultraviolent in their wars of conquest — the old phrase “they make a desert and call it peace” was uttered by an enemy of Rome, *about* the Romans and their way of war.  Over at acoup.blog, Bret Devereaux has discussed the extraordinary levels of violence the Romans used, many times.

    And yet, somehow most of the Roman lands today are peopled by “normal nations”.

  47. 47.

    wjca

    @Jay: People tend not to realize what “flat” is for a train. Little humps on the roadway that their car doesn’t even think about, can stop a train.

    In many ways, the significant difference between a railroad and a canal is that a canal can include locks to shift elevation.

  48. 48.

    Alison Rose

    Headline at NYT:

    Iran’s president threatens U.S. officials from the U.N. podium, dimming hopes for a rapprochement

    Yeah, I’d say that might dim some hopes.

  50. 50.

    wjca

    @Chetan Murthy: Bret Devereaux has discussed the extraordinary levels of violence the Romans used, many times.

    And yet, somehow most of the Roman lands today are peopled by “normal nations”.

    Only consider how many centuries, after the fall of Rome, that took.  And we have yet to see Russia reduced to Muscovy and a collection of city-states.

  53. 53.

    Captain C

    @Chetan Murthy: I think that aspect (Mongol vassals/tribute sources to taking over the vacuum left by the declining Mongol empires) is a necessary but not sufficient part of explaining how Russia became Russia today.

    I would also suspect that part of the difference between the former Roman lands and Russia is that for the most part, Rome always had some degree of, if not democracy, diffusion of power (at least up to Diocletian, but that’s a separate conversation), with most emperors up through the third Century CE paying at least minimal lip service to the Senate and people.  Though the strength of the various rulers has waxed and waned, Russia since Ivan the Terrible and even before has always been an absolutist (at least in theory) political system, with the various boyars used as intermediaries to shield the Tsar from blame (Of course the reply to “If only the Czar knew what was being done in his name” is “The Cossacks work for the Czar.”).

    Anyway, I think the triumph of absolutism, the distance from Europe both physical and practical, the prevalent zero-sum outlook which seems to pervade Russia, and the particular shape and patterns of Russian colonialism are important factors.

  54. 54.

    Shalimar

    @Ksmiami: Everyone you know dies horribly in a “hot WWIII.”  This would be a bad thing.  It is scary for the people you know that you value their lives so cheaply.

  55. 55.

    Captain C

    @Jay: I recently read a book called Empire of the Black Sea by Duane Roller about the rise and fall of the Pontic Kingdom of northern Anatolia.  One of the things it talks about is how various kings would will their kingdom to the Roman Senate in exchange for being allowed to live out their own lives as client kings under Roman protection, thus sparing them from the aggressions of their neighbors.

    (edited to add link to GoodReads)

  56. 56.

    BellyCat

    @glc: “Things that matter” is subject to interpretation.

    My concern is that, apology or not, bullying behavior was employed in the moment while a significant event — thirteen presidential foundations calling for respectful bipartisan exchanges necessary to uphold the tenants of democracy — was dismissed as “inane” (IIRC).

    While Watergirl’s three minute interjection could have been more subdued, what is seemingly taking place is intolerant subject matter expertise at the expense of any other topic being introduced during a prime time of many people’s nights when they may wish, for reasons personal or otherwise, to discuss topics other than, for example, railroad engineering and its tactical implications.

    If we can have dedicated soccer threads without offense, we can (maybe?) have dedicated threads that focus on the seemingly acceptable destruction of innocent human lives threads?

    To me this ongoing situation (both Russia’s invasion and the seemingly monopolistic thread compulsion which may continue FOR YEARS) is baffling…

  57. 57.

    glc

    @BellyCat: Noted. I had thought you were objecting to seeing other people use this type of post as an open thread, and was responding to that. From your last comment, that’s clearly not the case.

  58. 58.

    TheMightyTrowel

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
      I’m going to be brief because I’m not a Romanist, but I am an archaeologist trained to see patterns over long and complex time-scales. I don’t think the Roman comparison is entirely apt for a few reasons, most crucially shifting technologies of communication (this includes printing presses, ship technology, etc) which wildly change that capacity of states to enforce centralised power, meaning that modern states can exert considerably more control and governance over outlying areas (and peripheral political entities) than ancient states could. Having said that, I think it’s worth reevaluating what you consider the ongoing impact of the Roman empire on political practices and the lands once ruled. Specifically, although Americans/Europeans tend to think of the end of empire in the 4th/5th centuries (the fall of Rome), the eastern Roman empire (aka the Byzantine empire) persisted until the 15th century. Taking a broader view, both the catholic and orthodox churches have laid claim to the Roman legacy – in fact the Russian orthodox church has positioned itself as the successor to the Byzantine church and thus the continuation of the Roman empire. The crusades and their successor colonial excursions (especially the early ones inspired and led by catholic powers) can be seen in part as legacy of Roman imperial activities as well. In short: the Roman drive to conquer most certainly outlasted the empire (west and east) and continues to reverberate in the present.

  61. 61.

    ColoradoGuy

    Right at the tail end of the thread, but that won’t stop me.

    First of all, Adam, thank you for your depth of research, your persistence, and your common decency and humanity in the face of an ongoing genocide that is affecting the fate of all democratic nations. I can’t thank you enough for the tremendous amount of work you put into this blog.

    Russia is far outside my area of expertise, but I wonder if their nation never having experienced the Enlightenment is what separates them from Europe. The tenets of the Enlightenment have gradually spread across Asia, especially after WWII, but in Russia it has fallen on stony soil. They struggle to escape a feudal despotism, as in 1917, but then fell into an even worse form with Lenin followed by Stalin.

    They went straight from a medieval feudalist society, backward by any European standard, into a weird state capitalism based on a failed economic theory, and made Marxism into an all-encompassing religion. When the miserable thing collapsed of its own weight, Russia then devolved into a Mafiya state chock-full of decaying military equipment … where they remain today, still untouched by the Enlightenment.

    If Putin and his fascist allies worldwide (including the GOP) have any common goal, it is to destroy the Enlightenment and all its benefits and freedoms. Above all else, fascists despise the Enlightenment and everything it stands for.

    What is also striking is how many billionaires, all through the world, thirst for what looks like techno-feudalism, with them at the top, of course. Maybe what they truly want are dynasties along North Korean lines.

  62. 62.

    Shalimar

    @eclare: Probably the last time Watergirl tries to post anything in the evening given the extreme reaction, and AL doesn’t seem to have had anything scheduled either.  I wasn’t online last night to see it happen in real time.

  63. 63.

    Shalimar

    Having finally read the comment last night you were apologizing for, you can call this an open thread all you want, but the topic is too important for most of us to post “bullshit hopium” here.  We want a thread for that too, and it shouldn’t matter when it goes up.

  64. 64.

    Geminid

    In his Monday night post, Dr. Silverman reported that two grain freighters had arrived at the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk. They took the inshore route Ukraine hopes to make into a new grain corridor now that Russia has left the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

    Last night the New York Times reported that one of the ships had sailed with a load and reached Romanian waters:

       In an initial success, the Resiliant Africa, which is loaded with 3,000 tons of wheat, crossed the maritime border into Romanian water on Tuesday. It arrived more than 12 hours after it left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, according to the MarineTraffic website, which tracks global shipping using satellite data.

    The second ship, the Aroyat, will probably attempt the passage next with a bigger load.

  66. 66.

    Betty Cracker

    @Shalimar: Can’t speak for anyone but myself, but it does suck when you work really hard on a post and someone immediately squashes it. I get around that challenge by not working hard on posts most of the time and therefore am not bothered by getting bigfooted. But on the rare occasions where I do spend a lot of time on a post, I’d prefer it not get immediately squashed. A 30-minute interval doesn’t seem like an unreasonable ask. 

    It’s true that regular commenters here often participate in more than one thread at a time, but people who bother to comment are a fraction of the total audience. Posts that get squashed right off the bat get fewer eyeballs. Period. If you’re putting time and expertise into posts to educate people (rather than just yapping into the void and providing a place for comments, which is what I mostly do), that might matter to you.

    One challenge we have here is that the blog doesn’t have a real scheduling function. You can schedule a post in the backroom, but there’s a system glitch whereby it only works a fraction of the time. Apparently it’s not fixable because it’s been an issue that affects everyone for a long time.

    I’m not sure what the answer is, but maybe if there’s a need for a lighter thread immediately after the Ukraine update is posted, it could go UNDER the Ukraine post. That part of the scheduling system does work — the person creating the post can just enter a time one minute prior to the Ukraine thread timestamp or wait half an hour to drop a new post.

    Anyhoo, all water under the bridge now, I hope. This platform really does suck for group blogging because of the scheduling issue.

  67. 67.

    Shalimar

    @Betty Cracker: Putting the lighter open thread under posts that take a long time to compose sounds like an excellent compromise.  Speaking just for myself, I don’t care which post is on the top since I read all of them.   For others who don’t, leaving the most important on top for a period of time sounds like it would help the blog with viewership and engagement.

  71. 71.

    evodevo

    @Jay: Yes..this was often accomplished by settling military retirees in an occupied country in colonia, giving them land grants and pensions, and Roman citizenship.  They usually married locally, and their descendants formed a significant fraction of the local population after a couple hundred years.

  73. 73.

    evodevo

    @Shalimar:  Yes…I can manage to open several tabs/posts at a time LOL…and I read the Ukraine posts for war updates, not discussions of GunBunny’s antics…

  74. 74.

    StringOnAStick

    @evodevo: Agreed, with you and Betty Cracker ‘s comment as well.  I feel like it is my obligation as a concerned citizen of the world and an anti-fascist to read Adam’s Ukraine post every night.  I have too much respect for the work involved to post any comments on them unless they are on topic, though mostly I just read the comments because there are others with much more informed things to add than I do.  These posts are like entering the room full of educated, concerned adults, not someplace to make fun of our various targets of ridicule.

  75. 75.

    catfishncod

    @ColoradoGuy: “but I wonder if their nation never having experienced the Enlightenment is what separates them from Europe.” 

    Hmmm… based on my limited knowledge, I would say that’s a component, but not an explanation. St. Petersburg’s entire purpose and existence was to be “a window on the West”, and explicitly an attempt to culturally and technologically reconnect the Russian interior to the Baltic trade nets that built the pre-Mongol states of the Rus’ and persisted for some time after… only to be wiped out as part of the expansion of Moscovy. Peter had traveled the world and knew Russia was doomed if it didn’t modernize. His successors down to Catherine the Great continued the push to shove Enlightenment down the Russian elite’s throats.

    Results were… mixed, at best, even in St. Petersburg. And as you note, very, very little of it reached the provinces.

    So the question to ask — and I don’t have the answer, but maybe Giles does, or @Adam L Silverman — is not “Is Russia different because of a lack of Enlightenment?” but “What aspects of Russia made it so resistant to Enlightenment?“

  76. 76.

    Carlo Graziani

    @catfishncod: Given the sustained violence that was required to impose Marxist-Leninist governance on the nascent USSR (think collectivization), the broader question might be “what aspects of Russian culture militate so strongly against acceptance of Western-inspired reform, yet yield so compliantly under state violence?”

  77. 77.

    Helena Montana

    To me, an apology loses some of its value when it’s billed as a “quick housekeeping note.”

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