Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Cole is on a roll !

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

“woke” is the new caravan.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Second rate reporter says what?

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

If marriage is the equivalent of selling yourself into slavery, women with self respect should reject the offer.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Republicans in disarray!

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 572: Russia Opens Up on Ukraine Again Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 572: Russia Opens Up on Ukraine Again Tonight

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Russia opened up on Ukraine again overnight. Ukrainian air defense was on the game.

Kharikiv is right now under the gun, or missile, so to speak:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

Full text of Zelenskyy’s tweet:

Olena @ZelenskaUA and I arrived in the United States for the high-level week of the UN General Assembly and a visit to Washington, D.C.

I will attend the General Assembly, SDG Summit, and Security Council meetings at the UN, as well as a number of important bilateral talks.

Ukraine will put out a concrete proposal to UN member states on how to fortify the principle of territorial integrity and improve the UN’s capacity to thwart and halt aggression.

In Washington, D.C., I am going to meet with @POTUS Joe Biden, leaders of the U.S. Congress’ chambers and parties, military leadership, American businesses, journalists, and members of the Ukrainian community.

I will thank the United States on behalf of Ukraine for its assistance in our struggle for independence and freedom.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

 

President Zelesnkyy sat for an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes:

Here’s the full interview:

Klischiivka:

Andriivka:

Novoprokopivka-Robotyne-Verbove:

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

Here is a proper battle damage assessment of Ukraine’s attack on the Russian naval facilities in Sevastopol from H.I. Sutton, who is a naval analyst. First tweet from his thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2.
Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarineNote cutaway is port (left)Image
3.
This damage appears to be blown outward. One possible explanation *might* be a sympathetic battery explosion (?). Opinions welcome.Image
4.
Would be interesting to see reexaminations of available satellite imagery, how well does this match?However, this looks absolutely credible to me. Beware people who over-analyse with an agenda 
5.
This matches previous assessment and confirms massive damage. Combined with damage further aft, conforms in my mind that pressure hull was breached. This cannot realistically be repairedImage
6.
I am confident that any repair (which is anyway unrealistic) cannot be done in Sevastopol. Submarine would need to be patched and towed or on a barge, probably ti St. Petersburg. 

Source of images

I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest not consequence 
Re outward explosion, I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point anyway. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest, not consequence 

Correction to title:

***Submarine Cutaway of the Day***Image

“Rostov on Gone” 

And another battle damage assessment using the same base material:

Russia occupied Donetsk:

Not sure where this is in Ukraine, but if you are wondering what the impact from a HIMARS strike looks like and like watching Russian military equipment go kablooey, then this video is for you!

The Kinburn Peninsula:

Here’s a blast from the past regarding how the US and our EU and NATO allies responding to Russia scarfing up Crimea back in 2014. From Christopher Miller’s new book.

I think what Tatarigami has stated in a tweet, which is independent of what Christopher Miller has recounted and reported in his new book, provides a stark contrast to the Obama administration’s response:

The Obama administration’s response was bloodless. It was cold, calculating, and I suppose realpolitik. It was also, as I’ve written about before, the textbook answer. And I know it was the textbook answer because it was the one I gave when I was the senior civilian advisor to the commanding general of US Army Europe. When we began to focus on Russia’s intentions for Ukraine in January 2014 I began preparing a strategic assessment regarding the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity, Ukrainian and Russian politics, society, economy, human geography, political geography, military geography*, and what Putin’s intentions were in regard to Ukraine. I began working on this for him in the middle of January 2014 specifically because the initial discussions were framed within Russia’s narrative, which we had all simply picked up from US and western news sources. Because the US and western news sources had absorbed Putin’s framing of Russian and Ukrainian relations, as well as what the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity was lock, stock, and barrel. Over the next two months I wrote the strategic assessment that included all of the above, as well as threat, risk, and Red Team sections for the Old Man and the senior staff covering all of those subjects. My strategic assessment was also pushed up to the commanding general of EUCOM/Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and his senior staff and was the read of the week at EUCOM. And at the end of my assessment I made the same technically correct textbook answer to my boss, which was the same preliminary assessment that I gave him three month’s prior in January of 2014 at our initial operational planning team meeting: no one in the US would risk escalating a conflict with Russia over Crimea because Russia is a nuclear weapons state. As I’ve written here before, that was the wrong answer. It was strategically and morally incorrect.

Time and experience have taught me what I could not learn in the classroom at Carlisle Barracks: that at the strategic level the textbook answer may be technically correct, but it should serve as the starting point for strategic inquiry, analysis, and assessment, not just be the default answer. We throw around idioms like states have interests, not friends. Or pull them from Thucydides; recounting to ourselves and anyone else in ear shot the bit from the Melian dialogues that the strong do what they will while the weak suffer what they must. Time and experience have taught me that my initial impression of realpolitik was the correct one. It is a trite excuse to justify either doing nothing, when action would be morally imperative even if strategically riskier than baseline or to justify doing whatever you want regardless of whether it is strategically sound or even a good idea. For a time, including in 2014 when I needed to remember it, I forgot this assessment of realpolitik. As a result, I failed to provide my boss the conceptual arguments and ammunition he needed to bring to his discussions with his boss and that his boss could then take up with the national command authority that would have provided the valid strategic justifications for us to do far more than we did. And I am well aware that neither my boss, nor his were going to set US policy and strategy for responding to Putin’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Regardless, it was my job to give them what they needed informationally and I did not do that. I failed the Old Man and in doing so, in regard to the small part I played in this in 2014, I also failed the Ukrainians.

* Human geography is people, places, things, and how they all interact in time and space. Political geography is how political structures and institutions are organized and how the people running them make decisions. Military geography is how militaries, defense, national security, and intelligence organizations are structured and how the people running them make decisions. There is often significant overlap between political and military geography.

For those of you who are curious, here is the Melian dialogue:

F-16 training update:

Once they finish the five weeks in Texas, they will then be run through a specialty Defense Language Institute course to teach them how to not speak like Texans.//**

** // are sarcasm tags/indicators

Germany:

South Korea:

Well that’s going to piss off Congressman Gaetz, Senator Tuberville, and their fellow travelers. They hate rhinos.

Here’s a machine translation from Bild:

PICTURE: Minister, how do we specifically help?

Boris Pistorius: „ Our help is complex. In addition to our extensive support with weapons and material, we train Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. By the end of the year there will be 10,000. In Ramstein, for example, we check whether we can support even more with the training. “

There is no new weapon package from Germany?

Pistorius: „ But. We supply additional ammunition: explosive ammunition, mortar ammunition, mine rockets. Because ammunition is what Ukraine needs most in its defense against the brutal war of aggression. We will also help with protected vehicles and demining systems. But we also have an eye on the approaching winter: we will send clothes, but also electricity and heat generators. The package will weigh a total of 400 million euros. “

Ukraine wants one thing above all: the Taurus cruise missile. Why is it not in there?

Pistorius: „ With our help for Ukraine we ask ourselves: What are our strengths? These are our modern Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks. There is ground-based air defense. Our IRIS T SLM air defense system saves lives in Ukraine every day. We are in second place worldwide in military support for Ukraine. The Ukrainians appreciate that very much, as they keep telling me in conversations. “

That’s enough for tonight.

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And here’s the new episode from Patron’s YouTube channel:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

79Comments

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    I know you’ve written about your introspection before, Adam, but this seems a more detailed account, and I appreciate it. Others should understand, as I’m sure you do, that the vast majority of outside observers fundamentally misunderstood what was happening in the Revolution of Dignity and the national mood that supported that movement and led to its size and scope; this, I think inevitably, also led to misunderstanding what russia was doing in response – because I really suspect that while Westerners didn’t grasp how Ukraine had changed, V.V. Putin did.

    There’s nothing to be gained by beating yourself up.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    Other items – Chris Miller is a solid reporter and a good writer, who knows Ukraine very well. If it’s within your means, buy his book.

    Also, the continuing inability or unwillingness of American TV people to correctly pronounce the Ukrainian President’s first name is driving me up the fucking wall. It is most emphatically *not* “Vladimir” and it’s no improvement to try “Vlodimir.” There are four syllables, not three.

  4. 4.

    Anonymous At Work

    Those Defense Language Institute personnel are in for it.  Taking the Texan out of someone’s speech, boy, nope nope nope.  G’s at teh end of words are optional and “y’all” is a legitimate word, and that’s hoping that none of them speak like Boomhauer.

    And the reference for “by the book” approaches being used against people was Die Hard: “The FBI are here with the International Terrorist Playbook and they’re running it step-by-step.”  I think the analysis needed to consider if the Budapest Memorandum was a one-off or the starting point for denuclearization.  Failing to respond means that no one else will ever voluntarily denuclearize, sadly.

  5. 5.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    “Once they finish the five weeks in Texas, they will then be run through a specialty Defense Language Institute course to teach them how to not speak like Texans.”

     

    In another 10 years or so, after Ukraine is free of Putin, Ukrainians will speak Ukrainian with a Texas accent.

     

    It’ll make for some awesome movies!

  6. 6.

    catfishncod

    Ukraine wants one thing above all: the Taurus cruise missile. Why is it not in there?

    ….We are in second place worldwide in military support for Ukraine. The Ukrainians appreciate that very much, as they keep telling me in conversations.

    As do I, though it took far too long to get there.

    …aber, with all due respect, Herr Bundesminister: you did not answer the question.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Slightly OT, but on the subject of seemingly sensible realpolitik having perverse & adverse secondary/tertiary effects that, while unintended, are entirely foreseeable:

    Trudeau says intelligence shows India was behind slaying of Sikh leader in Surrey, B.C.

    In summary:

    Canadian security agencies allege the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar can be linked to Indian government agents
    Mr. Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and leader in Surrey’s Sikh community, was shot dead in his truck in June outside a temple
    Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has expelled the head of Canadian operations of India’s foreign intelligence agency
    India and Canada are in the midst of negotiating a trade deal, but talks have been paused by mutual agreement
    Justin Trudeau says he has briefed U.S. President Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says India must account for its conduct; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says Canada and its allies must send a strong signal to India

    It seems Modi has been eagerly learning from Xi on how to oppress troublesome ethnic minorities, and taking lessons from Putin on how to silence critics home & abroad. Yet, he has been & will continue to be fêted & wooed by the West because India is perceived as a critical counterweight to the PRC. western countries will continue to try to divert manufacturing to India, & celebrate any success in so doing, despite the extraordinarily challenging operating environment, in an attempt to “friend shore”.

    Collaborating w/ India to counterbalance the PRC, due to converging threat perceptions, is sensible realpolitik, but fawning obsequiousness toward Modi in hopes of getting India to help contain China is ill-advised & unnecessary at multiple levels, & a fools errand at the end (because India, no matter the ruling government, will not give up its policy independence).

    In the meantime, the overwhelming focus on defeating Putin has served to legitimize righting nationalist governments in Poland, Italy & Sweden in polite Western company. I think this level of accommodation was unnecessary, & indeed counterproductive if the ultimate motivation for defeating Putin is preserving liberal democracy in Europe & N. America. How much would one wager that, should the Russian Federation devolve, Europe will soon have to deal with an assertive & revanchist Poland, led by its religio-/ethno-nationalist government, seeking to carve out a large sphere of influence over the carcass of the Russian Empire & the rest of CEE/Baltics? (BTW, I highly doubt Poland has the economic foundation to realize such dreams, but there seems no shortage of political ambitions, & soon Poland will have the most powerful land army in Europe, paid for by the EU – because it is not clear how Poland has the budget to fund the tens of billions of equipment acquisitions…)

    Well, it’s not as if we have not witness such shortsighted realpolitik aplenty during the OG Cold War, so why would the new one be any different.

  9. 9.

    Alison Rose

    I really appreciated Zelenskyy’s words in the 60 Minutes interview, even though some of the questions pissed me off. When Pelley asks about ceding land, there’s this almost…pugnacious tone to it, or pushy or something. I suppose he was trying to do a devil’s advocate thing, but it came across as rude to me. How many fucking times will Zelenskyy and other Ukrainians be asked this same damn question, and have to give the same damn answer? I would also ask anyone asking it…why in the blue-and-yellow fuck should they have to give up their land? Just because putin wants it? What if between the two of us, Canada was the more populous and powerful country opposed to the US? And one day they were like, you know, we’d like to take Minnesota and Wisconsin and maybe Michigan. Heck, just the whole line of states along the border. We’re gonna take ’em. Would people here be like, sure no prob, you can have them, please just be nice to us? Obviously not. If Americans wouldn’t want to give up chunks of our country because a bully next door wanted them, why in the God damn hell should Ukraine have to do so?

    Bah. Sorry.

    Here’s a lovely video of Zelenskyy meeting with Ukrainian soldiers being treated at a hospital in NY.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  10. 10.

    Amy!

    I figured that some other Russian speaker was gonna beat me to it (and maybe they already have, in some other message thread somewhere), but the proper name of that submarine, now, should be Rostov-na-dne (Ростов-на-дне). Rostov on the bottom.

  11. 11.

    Chetan Murthy

    I mentioned this in another thread, but thought it was worth re-upping here.  I’m reading a very interesting book by Keir Giles: Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West

    Giles appears to be a well-respected Russia analyst, based at Chatham House in the UK.  The TL;DR is that what we see in Russia today is *not* new, neither since 2008, since 1991, nor since 1917.  It is the way Russia has been for centuries, and it isn’t too much to say that it’s the content of what Russians mean when they say “when you look at us, you see white Europeans, but inside we’re not, and never have been.”

    Very, very interesting.  Also relevant to our own troubles with the Reichwing — parts II and III are about history, lying, truth, etc, and the echoes of what’s happening with 40+% of our population are chilling.

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: Yeah, I mean…I’m garbage with other languages, and some names might be tricky for native English speakers to get right. Volodymyr is not one of them, especially after hearing it just a few times, let alone a few thousand.

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: I do have to ask, only b/c I’m an immigrant from a place where names are mos’def not European, and hence …. well, my name got mangled all to hell  and back a few times ……

    I do wonder if some of this is just typical “We’re the metropole, we don’t need to understand people from the provinces; *they* need to understand *us*” thinking.  I mean, when I was growing up I spent a few years in Delaware, and there were a lot of Polish kids in my neighborhood, and …. they didn’t exactly escape xenophobia just b/c they were white.

  16. 16.

    Eolirin

    @Chetan Murthy: Asimov very clearly laid out the dynamic ages ago: “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: The whole reason I assigned myself the assessment was I knew that the framing we were using was Russia’s. That that was not the correct framing and that continuing to work within it would warp our theater strategy. My job was to make the Boss and the staff smarter, not dumber. And I endeavored to do so. But when it came time to articulate what we should do, I defaulted to the technically correct seminar room answer. That was the wrong answer and the wrong thing to do. If I’d done it the way I would now, it likely wouldn’t have made any difference as my boss and his boss didn’t have the final say, but that doesn’t lessen my responsibility. I failed the Old Man and I have to live with that.

  19. 19.

    Alison Rose

    @japa21: Yeah, I recall seeing bits of that. And here, like…he could frame it differently. He could say “There are still people who insist Ukraine should just give up your land to a bully. What would you say to them to show them how that feels from a Ukrainian perspective” or something. I hate devil’s advocate JAQing off. It’s lame.

  21. 21.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: I’m 100% with you: I watched Zelenskiyy’s answer, and got angry that he had to make it.  As if the deaths and maimings and rapes and tortures are somehow something that needs to be *justified*.  *Justified*.  ugh.

    And at this point, *everybody* knows that even if Ukraine were to agree to give up land, it wouldn’t end the war.  A few years from now, Vova (or his successor) would be back for more from someplace in Europe.  And Zelenskiyy and others have been so, so, SOOO FUCKING CLEAR on this.  And yet imbeciles like this CBS reporter don’t know it (or more precisely: pretend not to know it).

    Ugh.

  22. 22.

    JoyceH

    I saw a thing recently (some news org or other, can’t remember which) that Russia announced that the mobilized would no longer be rotated out of Ukraine but would be in the battlefield for the duration. Makes me wonder if we might soon be seeing mass surrender or defection. With a fixed rotation date, soldiers can hunker down and hope to survive to go home, but sent to war indefinitely… Surrender might start to look like the only option.

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Eolirin: Ehhh …. sure, I can agree  with Asimov at some level.  But from what I have read, in Russia the same dynamic holds between the metropole (Moscow/St Pete) and the “regions”.  It’s almost universal, that the residents of the metropole feel unconcerned with the lives and cares and culture of the inhabitants of …. everywhere else.  And it seems like it’s been a constant of human civilization …. forever.

    Which doesn’t excuse that we Americans do it too.  But maybe it explains it.  In any case, I fully agree with G&T about the infuriating-ness of it.  It’s.  Not.  That.  Damn.  Hard.

  25. 25.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chetan Murthy: Yep. I’ve written that here before. What we’re seeing now is simply the same thing we’ve been seeing for over three hundred years. The names of who is in charge change. The borders change. The name of the political and economic systems change. But what is being done never changes even if the how it is done changes as technology advances.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    @JoyceH:

    Surrender might start to look like the only option.

    The one constant in the Russian army seems to be the infantryman’s ability to absorb punishment from all sides.  I’ll believe things are changing when they provide coordinates for their own artillery park, so they can surrender with greater safety.

    But seriously, yes, that announcement by Kartapolov (IIRC) was pretty blatant: “No, we expect you to die, Corporal Conscriptovich” [h/t Perun]

  29. 29.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Adam L Silverman: Taking the Texan out of the pilots’ accent was a joke.  The second part, about how, when you have a “book”, your adversaries can also have access to that book, is not.

  32. 32.

    Bill Arnold

    This by Timothy Snyder is well-argued. It has many links within it as well.
    Elon Musk likes to think he saved us from Armageddon. He’s just brought it closer – Whatever his new biography says, by giving into Russia’s nuclear blackmail the X boss can only encourage more threats from Putin (Timothy Snyder, Sun 17 Sep 2023, The Guardian.
    (Mentioned in an earlier thread today by Betty, with the pithy quote ““There are things so stupid that you must be a multibillionaire to believe them.” You might not correctly guess who said billionaire is. :) )

  33. 33.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Saw that RU retreated its the rest of its Black Sea LSTs to Sea of Azov.  Any chance that the ‘retrograde redeployment’ will impact RU morale in either Crimea or Zaporizhzhia regions, with their line of retreat now retreating without them?  Or am I just hoping that a thrust across the Dnipro would result in a collapse?

  34. 34.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Adam L Silverman: Adam, I’ve asked this question before: For many centuries, Ukraine was ….. under the same yoke as the rest of Russia.  And even as recently as 30+ years ago, the levels of corruption in Ukraine were eye-watering.  I’m reminded of the recent news of not-isolated reports of brutality by (some) AFU officers towards their subordinates in Ukraine, too.

    And YET, AND YET, Ukraine is reacting to this news in a completely different way that Russia did and is doing.[1]  Ukraine is reacting by trying to punish the perpetrators and thereby expunge the crimes, prevent them from recurring.  This is a big deal.

    [1] I’ve read that all attempts to stamp out dedovshchina in Russia have failed.

    I wonder why and how this change happened in Ukraine, and whether people have studied it and how to replicate it.

    B/c I’m pretty convinced that without some sort of thoroughing change in Russia, it’ll never be different than it’s been: a hellhole for its subject peoples and a danger to everybody else.  If somehow we could figure out how to replicate what Ukraine is doing, but everywhere in Russia, that’d be positive good.  What I fear, is that the real motivating factor is the sacrifices that so many Ukrainians are making in the cause of their freedom.  That’s going to be difficult (and more importantly, morally unacceptable) to replicate.

  35. 35.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: Ugh. I looked up his book on Goodreads and noticed it has a fairly low rating. There are a bunch of obviously fake 1-star reviews from russian bots who are pretending to be Ukrainians, calling Miller a russian propagandist who has pushed the “Ukrainians are Nazis” line. Most of the “reviews” are from accounts with little other activity and many of them were posted in a couple-day period months before the book came out (and I do not believe the one who claimed they were sent an ARC).

    I emailed Goodreads about it, explaining that this is a russian disinfo attack trying to discredit a largely pro-Ukraine book, and included a link to a Guardian review that clearly puts the lie to what the reviews are claiming. Goodreads’ customer service isn’t always great, but hopefully they will take a look and remove the fake reviews.

  36. 36.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Ukraine was ….. under the same yoke as the rest of Russia

    No, Ukraine was under the yoke *of* russia. Yes, the median russian peasant was in the same position as the median Ukrainian peasant, but every effort toward Ukrainian cultural identity and nationhood was brutally suppressed *by russia.* Oppressor and oppressed are not equivalent.

    This “same yoke” is so infuriating to me I have to log off before I say things I regret.

  37. 37.

    Bill Arnold

    @Chetan Murthy:

    And Zelenskiyy and others have been so, so, SOOO FUCKING CLEAR on this.

    This is a 60 minutes piece to an average-American 60 minutes audience, and as such it (may have?) worked well, IMO.. Mr. Zelenskyy really shined in it, as a serious and (very) competent leader of a nation fighting a war being waged against it.
    Some of the questions were annoying to us, agreed. They were answered very well.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    Wasn’t much the US could have done in Crimea in 2014. That was when all hell broke loose with ISIS. Opening a third operational area was beyond US capabilities. Especially since the US had to arm the Iraqi Army for third time. (IIRC)

  39. 39.

    Anoniminous

    @JoyceH:

    Don’t underestimated the willingness of Russian soldiers to die from incompetence and stupidity.  In 1944 the Red Army Army divisions were still sending waves of attacking infantry, in the open, into interlocking machine gun fire where they were more-or-less mowed down. 

  40. 40.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … TheHill.com:

    Republicans are bitterly divided on a short-term stopgap bill that would fund the government through Oct. 31. The measure includes an 8 percent cut to everything but Defense and Veterans Affairs, along with the bulk of the House GOP’s border crackdown bill.

    The plan, crafted by leaders in the Main Street Caucus and House Freedom Caucus, is intended to show House GOP unity and place pressure on the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House in negotiations for a package that could become law.

    But more than a dozen hardline conservative Republicans swiftly announced they opposed the bill for not going far enough or not addressing other appropriations — including many in the House Freedom Caucus.

    By the end of the day Monday, about 24 hours after the bill was unveiled, the list of Republicans saying they are definite or probable “no” votes had grown to at least 16. In the narrow GOP majority, that opposition would be more than enough to sink the legislation.

    […]

    But privately, Republicans acknowledge that the path forward looks bleak, and Republicans are losing leverage.

    “Nobody has a path forward now,” said one GOP member. “So what does that really mean? Is somebody else going to come in and try to save the day? Or what does the Speaker have?”

    “If this goes down this week, you can bet McCarthy is going to be talking to you all immediately after saying, ‘I told them it wouldn’t work,’” the member said of the continuing resolution plan.

    […]

    SEM view of world’s tiniest violin: 🎻

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  42. 42.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic:

    [Preface: Look, G&T, are you asking that we all need subscribe to “all Russians are animals, they all suck, and the best we can hope for is that we build a goddamn wall, and let them kill and rape each other”?   B/c if that’s what you want, well, y’know, I’m ready to sign up.  They fucking attacked my country, the only home I’ve ever known, and I hold grudges.]

    First, let me apologize for my bad phrasing.  I only meant that individual Ukrainians were under a similar oppression as individual Russians.  YES, I’ve read that Russia worked hard to destroy Ukrainian cultural identity, and destroy (== murder) Ukrainian cultural and intellectual leaders.  Keir Giles’ book is pretty clear on this — very,  very clear.

    BUT: it would be really interesting (in a depressing sense) to learn that the reason that Ukraine is *today* fighting back against both corruption and the sort of medieval serfhood that seems to pervade Russia, *because* of something ancient and long-standing in Ukrainian culture.  That would be really interesting, but also depressing, b/c it would mean that we cannot expect that Russia will ever get better.

    NOTE WELL: Let me be clear here: I’ve been pretty brutal in my scorn for Russians, and to the point where I’ve been called-out for it.   If you’re saying that there’s something *intrinsic* to Ukrainians that makes them able to join the modern West, then you’re *also* saying that there’s something *intrinsic* in Russians that makes them unable to join the modern West.  Hey let’s just build a goddamn wall and let ’em kill each other.

    It would be much more interesting to learn that there was something that changed after 1991, that made it possible for Ukrainians to fight back against corruption and to adopt the sort of values that we associate with Europe, and to learn what that something is.  B/c that would tell us that there’s hope that the same thing could happen in Russia.

    Look: I’ve been pretty xenophobic towards Russia and Russians here, b/c I see them as the enemies of my country and my Republic.  I don’t have any love for Russkies, and that’s *before* their invasion of Ukraine.  I’m trying to understand how and why Ukraine is succeeding in becoming a modern country, where individual rights matter, where the state and the rulers must obey the law, where the law is not capricious.

  44. 44.

    cain

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I don’t have a problem with Russians in the abstract. I do have a problem with Russian govt and specifically with Putin.

    The only leader I’ve really respected was Gorbachev – because he was enormously courageous. It’s too bad that we didn’t follow up (we’re always coming up short I noticed – funny that)

    That said, stuff like Russian jews turning Israel into a right wing fascist land makes me pause in other ways.

    I know that the local Russian and Ukrainian (I dated a Ukrainian girl) all vote right wing – so I’m not sure if this is something intrinsic with first generation Russians. Long back, I dated a Russian Jew and she was pretty liberal as was her mother. Both were not first generation Russians.

  45. 45.

    Chris

    Time and experience have taught me what I could not learn in the classroom at Carlisle Barracks: that at the strategic level the textbook answer may be technically correct, but it should serve as the starting point for strategic inquiry, analysis, and assessment, not just be the default answer. We throw around idioms like states have interests, not friends. Or pull them from Thucydides; recounting to ourselves and anyone else in ear shot the bit from the Melian dialogues that the strong do what they will while the weak suffer what they must.

    The Melian Dialogue as an argument for might-makes-right politics falls a lot more flat once you remember that the Athenians lost the Peloponnesian War (the broader conflict Melos was a part of).

    Time and experience have taught me that my initial impression of realpolitik was the correct one. It is a trite excuse to justify either doing nothing, when action would be morally imperative even if strategically riskier than baseline or to justify doing whatever you want regardless of whether it is strategically sound or even a good idea.

    Yep.

    I’ve never exactly trusted IR Realists’ judgment (then again, I’ve never been much for any grand theories of IR in general, so there’s that).  But in the last few years I’ve come to see Realism as being to international relations what “greed is good” type market-fundamentalism is to economics.  In both cases, the basic insight (“all things being equal, people will do what’s in their own interest”) is fine so far as it goes (though it’s only valuable if you remember that self-interest is only one of the motivators, and that people – and countries – place other things above their self-interest, for both good and bad reasons, all the time).  But in both cases, the fact that it’s a self-consciously amoral ideology means sociopaths are drawn to it like flies to shit, who love being able to hide behind the façade that they’re cold calculating rationalists who’re doing what’s harsh but necessary, but in reality are pretty much just in it for the raw worship of wealth/power.

    There’s a reason the most high-profile Realist in the country is Henry Kissinger.

    Not saying the Obama administration fell within this category, but that entire school of thought to me is way too tainted to be a reliable guide.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    @cain:

    I don’t have a problem with Russians in the abstract. I do have a problem with Russian govt and specifically with Putin.

    So: I do.  Even before reading Keir Giles’ book, I was pretty much convinced that the behaviour we see from Russian soldiers (the murders, tortures, rapes, looting) were too widespread, and too consistent over much more than a century, for anybody to pretend that it’s “a few bad apples”.  And reading Keir Giles’ book really, really drives it home.

    The only question is whether these animals can be redeemed.  And just to be clear, I have stated multiple times that “the MAGAt has no rights which I am bound to respect.”  So I’m not some xenophobe.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    IMHO, with Russia clawing out of Glastnost’s ruin, many in Ukraine saw Ukraine’s “future” as a bridge between RuZZia and The West.

    In order to make that happen, and not have Ruzzia or the Eastern States outcompete them, they had to start economic reforms to comply with EU requirements.

    I think that two decades of RuZZia screwing over Ukrainian trade with The West for short term political gains, kinda sold Ukraine that they were better off in the EU and didn’t need RuZZia.

    This lead to more and more baby steps.

  48. 48.

    Hangö Kex

    @Chetan Murthy: I found Keir Giles’ Moscow Rules a worthy read. The key message is the same as with (sadly, late) Martti J Kari’s lecture on Youtube / a book he co-authored with Antero Holmila: the Russian worldview is fundamentally different from us (“the West”) and this should be taken into account when dealing with them. Another book with the same key messgae is My Russia: War or Peace by Mikhail Siskin.

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: The thing is, while Trudeau undoubtedly raised this matter w/ Modi in private, Canada did not try to embarrass Modi by publicizing these finding either leading up to or during the G20 Summit. The Canadian readout from the Trudeau-Modi meeting was fairly mild, but Modi nonetheless set out to embarrass Trudeau.

    I think this announcement is Canadian retaliation.

  50. 50.

    Chris

    @Chetan Murthy:

    No expert on the region, but my impression is that the relative size and power of the two countries doesn’t do Russian politics any favors.

    Ukraine is a (comparatively) small country, with a large and belligerent neighbor.  If its leaders run it badly enough, it will get conquered.  Which is quite an incentive to run your system as competently as you can.  It’s also a small enough country, in a neighborhood with enough great powers, that it has no illusions about a glorious manifest destiny ruling the world or even the region.  Its national goals are going to have to be more modest, and, well, realistic.

    None of that applies to Russia: between the sheer size, the horrible weather, and the nuclear arsenal, they basically consider themselves impregnable, so one of the oldest and crudest incentives for rulers to run their country completely and not let corruption completely undermine it to the point of collapse – “if you don’t want to get conquered, pay attention!” – doesn’t apply.  It’s also the country that was one of the two superpowers ruling the world for forty years, it still believes that it was robbed and that it could or should be that way again, all of which encourages it to focus its dreams on “how do I impose my will on my neighbors and make the entire world fear me again,” as opposed to healthier ambitions like “how do I deliver a better standard of living for my people.”

  51. 51.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yep and I have no doubt. As you recall, I included both the Indian and Canadian read outs in the update the night after they were published by the respective governments.

  52. 52.

    Jay

    @Chris:

    Chetan was pointing out, that this attitude of murder, rape, torture and kidnapping being “ok”, for Ruzzian’s, isn’t just in the State, it’s been imbedded into the Ruzzian psyche.

  53. 53.

    Chris

    @Jay:

    Yeah, I probably erred by focusing the comment on the leaders, but I think the same mentalities apply to general populations, too.

  54. 54.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chris: I’m going to put words in  your mouth: I hope they’re accurate.

    Your theory is that it’s a matter of elite decision to attack and reduce corruption, to attack and reduce the medieval nature of Soviet society.  That might be correct.  I wonder how we might conclude that that’s what made it happen.  The reason I doubt this theory, is that it’s not what happened with the Euromaidan (at least, as I understand it): instead, Ukrainian society decide to fight against corruption, against Russkiy Mir, *bottom-up*.  At least, that’s what I understand happened.  It wasn’t that the elites decided: it was decided *for them* by the mass of the people.

    I’d like to understand what actually happened and why.

  55. 55.

    glc

    @Alison Rose: Goodreads has a longstanding history of ignoring much more egregious behavior. It’s an Amazon subsidiary.

    Anyway you’ve done what you can, better than ignoring it.

  57. 57.

    Chris

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Yeah, as Jay points out, my original comment focuses too much on elites.  But I do think the same mentality’s at play throughout much of society.  If you’re Ukrainian, you don’t have a world-dominating empire to look back on fondly (you were its victim instead), so whatever your political priorities are, they’re probably not going to revolve around Brexit-to-the-power-of-a-hundred type imperial nostalgia.  You’ve also got much fresher memories of being an occupied nation (and did even before 2014) and more realistic fears of ending up that way again.

    It very much isn’t enough to explain everything, but as near as I can tell the Russians just don’t have the same incentives as the Ukrainians to either let go of the past or clean up their own system.

  58. 58.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chris: I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I’m having trouble connecting your obviously correct observations, with the pervasive corruption we’ve all read about in both Russian and Ukrainian society — that Ukrainian society has been working hard to eradicate.  I point for instance at Denys Davydov, who along with his rah-rah support for Ukraine, is equally (if not more) scathing towards his elected officials and their toleration of corruption.  He’s been brutal, calling for Western investigators to find and root out the corruption in the Ukrainian MoD (for instance).  And there was that Ukrainian news segment that interviewed a number of Ukrainians-on-the-street, about what it would take to get Ukrainian refugees to come back to Ukraine.  They all mentioned the war, but almost-all also mentioned corruption and the enormous tax on life that that cost.

    I mean, again, you might be right.  But I don’t see the connection.

  59. 59.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: The victim was a Khalistani activist, so it is understandable why India (not just Modi & the BJP) might view him as a separatist threat. However, assassinating critics among the overseas diaspora is normally considered out of bounds, especially if the critics had not advocated violence in pursuit of their goals.

    There has only been a handful of countries that has resorted to such measures: Russia, Saudi Arabia, & now India. The KMT regime on TW, while it was still a hard authoritarian government, had carried out an assassination of a pro-independence activist in the US in the 80s. Israel has never been shy about targeting anyone it deems threatening outside of its borders.

  60. 60.

    wjca

    @JoyceH:  With a fixed rotation date, soldiers can hunker down and hope to survive to go home, but sent to war indefinitely… Surrender might start to look like the only option.

    The challenge, in the short run, is all those d*mn minefields between them and a Ukrainian to surrender to.  But once the Ukrainians break thru, it opens up a world of possibility.

  63. 63.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Khalistani terrorism had a fair bit of support here in Canada amongst the Indian diaspora, so that’s an old scary threat rearing it’s head.

    “Farmers not Food”, pushback against Modi’s attempts to destroy Indian Agriculture in favour of Big Ag, gota lot of support here, where many of our farms are Punjabi.

    Modi and the Sangh are not popular here.

  64. 64.

    Alison Rose

    @glc: I”m well aware, I’ve been using the site since 2008. It has worked in the past, though. When Prince Harry’s memoir was first up on the site, it got inundated with bullshit 1-star bombing. I (and probably others) emailed them about it and they did remove some reviews. It’s a matter of forcing them to pay attention to it.

  65. 65.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Khalistani activists organized demonstrations that followed Modi’s travels across the Anglosphere in 2022/23, which the current Indian government found embarrassing & enraging. Modi’s propaganda men had not been shy in venting their anger against Australia, Canada & the UK for allowing these demonstrations to take place.

  66. 66.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Some were Khalistani, most here were Punjabi farmers.

    Modi’s Ag “Reforms” would have killed what remains of the “Green Revolution”.

    Many of our farmers here, are Punjabi Sikh’s, with families still in India. The floods here were devastating, which only increased their anger.

    It’s one thing to have a natural disaster destroy farms, followed up with Government aid, it’s another thing to see farms destroyed by Government “policy”.

    India will starve with out the small and medium farm’s that Modi’s “policies” would have destroyed.

    And in the process, Modi gave impetus to recent revival of “Khalistan” as a political movement.

    Major “own goal”.

  67. 67.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Shashank Joshi at the Economist has a run down of a series of killings of Khakistani activitistd in Canada & the UK in recent months, which we now have to consider Indian intelligence as the potential culprit. Modi is definitely following the Putin-Israeli playbook. Some of the murdered Khalistani activists might have shown sympathies to militants/terrorists, but carrying out extrajudicial assassinations abroad is extremely aggressive & risky, & runs afoul of any commonly accepted international (small c) conventions that make up the international order, such as it is. The UK never targeted IRA sympathizers in the US during the Troubles, despite the obvious anger at the successive US Administrations for turning them a blind eye.

    As one of the recent killings occurred in the UK, one wonders if Rishi Sunak raised the matter in his meeting w/ Modi. Given all of the bonhomie on display, doubtful. I also have to wonder how the Biden Administration will handle the matter, especially in light of the kidnapping & murder of Jamal Khashoggi by MBS. Trudeau said he had made allied governments aware of the investigation results.

    Van Jackson has a good take on the worrying trend out of India, overshadowed by the Sino-US geopolitical rivalry:

    Modi’s Hindu Nationalism is a Threat to International Peace
    Violence abroad cannot but have roots in violence at home

    …

    What’s shocking here is not Indian state violence, but rather that 1) Canada is calling India out on its bullshit, and 2) the Cold Warriors of the Anglosphere didn’t see Indian violence coming one way or another.

    As I’ve said many times, Modi’s brand of ethnonationalism—which Arundati Roy and others describe as Hindu fascism—is violent and repressive. The Modi regime’s track record is much longer than even China’s at this point, and is part of the emergence of a global far right, which represents one of the greatest security problems in our time.

    India, in short, may just be a revisionist power. And not only does the United States fail to recognize the problem—its “great-power competition” with China makes the situation worse.
    …

    More disturbing is that the Nijjar assassination was likely part of a string of Indian government attacks targeting activists and militants abroad. That same month, Avtar Singh Khanda was poisoned in the UK. A month earlier, in May, Paramjit Singh Panjwar was assassinated (by gunfire) in Lahore, Pakistan. And only weeks ago, Riyaz Ahmad was shot dead inside a mosque in Kashmir.

    The pattern sounds like Israeli-style aggression, which should not be a surprise, as I wrote recently:

    “Modi’s designs for settler-colonial expansion [in Kashmir] borrowed directly from Israel’s practices oppressing and occupying Palestine. Modi has also cultivated close ties to Bibi Netanyahu, who in turn has close ties to other key figures of the global far right—most famously Trump himself.”

    India under Modi also runs a sprawling global propaganda apparatus that compares to China’s United Front Work Department, ranging in everything from online harassment (if you’ve ever said anything critical about Modi on Twitter you’ve probably been on the receiving end of this) to targeting diaspora communities in foreign countries.

    …

    On a meta level, I fear we’re entering a dark age of international relations and India’s just a normal/normalizing part of that age. Repressive violence is what national-security states are empowered to do.

    On another level, from the perspective of foreign policy analysis, we have to take seriously the risks that Modi’s regime poses to international stability in the same way we would any other actor. But even very smart India watchers generally fail to think of India in that war-risk sort of way.

    So consider India’s track record under Modi, just in the past five years:

    • Launched unilateral air strikes against Pakistan in 2019, killing hundreds of militants.
    • Unilaterally revoked Kashmir’s autonomous status in 2019, imposing martial law and increasing its troop presence via fait accompli(unilateral territorial revanchism).
    • Engaged in large-scale religious and ethnic persecution in Punjab after causing a water crisis there following decades of exploiting and degrading its land and agriculture for profit (a source of grievance for Sikh activism in the first place).
    • Run global disinformation campaignstargeting diaspora communities.
    • And now a pattern of extrajudicial assassinations abroad.

    …

    I don’t want to pit India and China against each other in a contest to say who’s more fascist, because in a way they both are. The point should not be lost, however, that India’s track record of aggression the past five years outstrips China’s by a country mile, and yet policymakers in the Anglosphere routinely fete one of these countries and routinely plot World War III against the other.

    For China’s various transgressions beyond its borders—which are real—it hasn’t killed anybody in militarized violence abroad in a long time…except for a hand-to-hand melee between PLA soldiers and the Indian army in the Himalayas in 2020. And China certainly hasn’t been doing assassinations. So to engage in alarm-raising about one of these countries and not the other is to engage in bad analysis or bad faith advocacy—or both.

    The Hindu fascist blind spot only comes into light by comparing it with others under the same historical conditions (of right now).

    And the point is not to fear-monger about India, although the US most certainly shouldn’t be selling arms to a security state in the service of ethnonationalism. Rather, the point is to temper fear-mongering about China, and to recognize that the “China threat” is a weak rationale for the militarism and anti-democratic choices being made to supposedly deal with it.

    Because while China might be a revisionist actor in international relations, India might be too. And that means India puts what remains of the “Asian peace” in jeopardy just as much as Chinese revanchism and American primacy—perhaps more so since nobody’s paying it attention.
    …

  69. 69.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Some more details on the downfall of former Chinese FM Qin Gang. Perhaps the rumors that his mistress was a CIA asset might have some legs. Of course, given the opacity of elite CPC politics, we are in rumor mongering territory here.

    China’s Ex-Foreign Minister Ousted After Alleged Affair, Senior Officials Told

    Qin Gang remains under investigation for possible national security violations, according to people familiar with the matter
    …

    Senior Chinese officials—including ministers and provincial leaders—were briefed last month on the party’s investigation into Qin, who served as the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. from July 2021 until January this year, the people said. The senior officials were told the formal reason for Qin’s dismissal was “lifestyle issues,” a common party euphemism for sexual misconduct, according to the people.
    The officials were further told that the probe found that Qin had engaged in an extramarital affair that led to the birth of a child in the U.S., two of the people said.
    Names of the woman and the child weren’t disclosed to the party officials when they were informed about Qin’s investigation, the people said, and the Journal couldn’t confirm their identities. The investigation is continuing with Qin’s cooperation, the people added, and it is now focusing on whether the affair or other conduct by Qin might have compromised China’s national security.
    …
    Scrutiny of the party’s senior ranks, insiders say, is zeroing in on officials involved in dealing with foreigners and the top brass in the Chinese military in charge of ensuring the armed forces’ capacity to fight.
    Earlier this month, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who is mainly responsible for military relations with other countries, was taken away by authorities for questioning, The Wall Street Journal reported. In July, the commander and political commissar of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which controls the country’s strategic missiles, were both dismissed with no reason given publicly.
    Some economic officials, who have traditionally been granted more leeway to interact with their Western counterparts and foreign business executives, have also increasingly found themselves having to report greater details than before on their dealings as scrutiny deepens, party insiders said.
    …
    Before being named U.S. ambassador, Qin served as a vice minister responsible for planning events for Xi and accompanied the Chinese leader on many of his overseas trips. Qin’s close association with Xi has made his fall from grace more intriguing. An information void has fed furious speculation on social media for months, including around the possibility of an extramarital affair.
    In China’s opaque system, sexual misconduct is often used as a way to discredit fallen officials considered to be disloyal to the party leadership. In Qin’s case, according to the people familiar with the matter, the affair disclosed by the party’s investigation triggered his downfall partly because Qin’s U.S.-born child could potentially compromise his ability to represent China’s interests in dealing with the Americans.
    …
    In addition, in his more than a decade of rule of China, Xi has time and again directed his ire at corruption in the party and the tales of senior members’ lavish lifestyles and harems of mistresses that fed public cynicism about the party’s leadership.
    “You people, you either eat and drink yourselves into the grave, or die between the sheets,” Xi said at a meeting with senior officials earlier in his tenure, according to people briefed on the remarks.

    That last quote!

  70. 70.

    Origuy

    Allegedly, this video is intended to promote the Russian Army by depicting soldiers talking about where in Kyiv they’ll live after they take it back.

    In a promotional recruitment video for the Russian army, Russian soldiers share which Ukrainian cities they would live in after they capture Ukraine.Is that the real point of their war? Then they forgot to include the discussion on looting washing machines into the video. pic.twitter.com/5HSchiLq6q— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 19, 2023

  72. 72.

    catfishncod

    @Chetan Murthy: Serious and genuine question: what is in Moscow Rules that is unique, valuable, or up to date compared to older observations of Russia’s distinctive issues?

    Because I’ve tried to find synopses better than “this is an amazing take,” and most of what I’ve found so far is basically the same as Keenan’s Long Telegram (with current Putinist rhetoric subbed in for now-discarded Soviet cant).

  73. 73.

    Chetan Murthy

    @catfishncod: I just finished it.  Now I’ll go read Kennan’s Long Telegram.  Can you suggest what  those older sources are?  I could read those ?  And then report back?

  74. 74.

    ancien regime

    The Obama administration’s response was bloodless. It was cold, calculating, and I suppose realpolitik. It was also, as I’ve written about before, the textbook answer. And I know it was the textbook answer because it was the one I gave when I was the senior civilian advisor to the commanding general of US Army Europe.

    Adam,

    Fascinating stuff. Your updates on Ukraine are useful and much-appreciated, but the insider insights on strategic decision-making are close to unique.
    I have questions.
    1. Was the “textbook” answer wrong? Did the US have realistic options in 2014 Crimea, given the sharp political divisions in Ukraine and the utter ineffectiveness of Ukrainian security and military forces once the crisis hit? What advice do you think you should have given in 2014?
    2. If the “textbook” gives the wrong answer, how do we change the “book”?
    3. The last 50 years provide numerous examples of US overreach that ended up damaging American interests. That seems particularly true when the US ends up more committed to a local outcome than the locals. Would a stronger US intervention in 2014 not have created exactly that risk?
    4. The last 50 years also provide numerous examples of both Russia and the US avoiding direct confrontation because neither side wants to increase the chances of a nuclear exchange. Do you believe that’s made us too cautious in confronting Russia, and do you believe US decision-making over-emphasized that threat in 2014?
    5. What, if any effect is your change of heart likely to have on your future career path?

    Sorry for all the questions, but it’s unusual to have direct access to someone who was inside the belly of the beast and seems willing to actually tell the truth.

  75. 75.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: Kennan refined and elaborated his Long Telegram material in his “X Article”—a piece in Foreign Affairs titled “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” pseudonymously authored by “X”. The article is reproduced here.

  76. 76.

    catfishncod

    @Carlo Graziani: Thanks. I wrote that reply at half past the hour of the wolf, so I didn’t have links and references handy.

    There was once an un-paywalled STRATFOR thinkpiece examining Russian grand strategy in abstract starting from geographical and economic principles. It also made some (not all) of the same points.

  77. 77.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: @catfishncod: OK, I read the X article.  Some observations:

    1. Moscow Rules interrogates much more of Russian society and culture, and bases its observations on Russian history, whereas Kennan makes observations of Soviet behaviour *today*.  The difference (to me) is that the former’s judgments are less susceptible to “but surely they can/will change!”
    2. MR interrogates the Russian population and its conditions of life and political habits, and not just the elites.  Bluntly put, #NotAllRussians becomes a lot more untenable in the light of the evidence Giles adduces.
    3. Kennan doesn’t make plain the medieval nature of Russian rule over  its peoples: MR does.
    4. MR adduces a large number of pieces of evidence (written facts): Kennan sure has them, but he doesn’t reference them in his piece.
    5. MR interrogates the idea that perhaps the Russians will change, and demolishes many of the arguments for such hope.

    OK, that’s 3-4 observations.   I’m sure there are others.  I thought MR was actually much better than the X article, and the biggest reason for me is that it makes clear the thru-line of Russian behaviour, going back *centuries*.

    “This is who they are; they aren’t going go change, b/c they haven’t changed in centuries; get used to it.”

  78. 78.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: And furthermore,

    6. “don’t go thinking that a change in regime will improve things: this is who all of Russia’s elites are, this is their entire culture.  Any new regime would do the same things.”

  79. 79.

    catfishncod

    @Chetan Murthy: That does provide the context that online reviews and synopses were not providing. It sounds like Giles did the spadework that Kennan wasn’t paid to do or write about (though I can’t imagine he wasn’t aware). Giles also has the benefit of 75 extra years of history, including yet another complete transplant of political philosophy that changed virtually nothing about Russian internal organization or foreign policy.

    As for myself, I’m trying to steer between the Scylla of “Oh, it’s just the regime and its elites that think this way” (really? when there were two complete overhauls, plus numerous purges, in the last century alone?) and the Charybdis of “Look, they’re just orcs, they’re born this way and they’ll all die this way, all you can do is kill them” (because our own ancestors were Elves filled to overflowing with divine light, I suppose).

    What I hear precious little of is “Look, this is how they are now, these are centuries-old behaviors that got ingrained in the culture and self-perpetuate. Any realistic concept of change in Russia must start from this point, and must overcome the attractors that keep Russia the way it is.“

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