(Image by NEIVANMADE)
President Zelenskyy addressed the UN Security Council today.
Albanian PM Edi Rama had the best solution for Russia at the UN: You stop the war and president Zelensky will not take the floor pic.twitter.com/QnGQDKySUO
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 20, 2023
Video below, English transcript after the jump. The video is from UATV English because the video available on the President of Ukraine’s YouTube channel does not have closed captioning enabled. UATV English also has an English voice over President Zelenskyy’s remarks.
The use of veto power requires reform, and this can be a key reform in the UN – address by the President of Ukraine at the UN Security Council meeting
20 September 2023 – 19:24
Distinguished Prime Minister Rama!
I am grateful to the Albanian Presidency for arranging this meeting.
Mr. Secretary-General!
Ladies and gentlemen!
Five hundred seventy-four days of pain, losses, and struggle have already passed since the start of the full-scale aggression launched by the state, which, for some reason, is still present here among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia has killed at least tens of thousands of our people and turned millions into refugees by destroying their homes.
Most of the world recognizes the truth about this war. It is a criminal and unprovoked aggression by Russia against our nation, aimed at seizing Ukraine’s territory and resources. But it is not just that. With its aggression, the terrorist state is willing to undermine all the dams of international norms meant to protect the world from wars.
And I am grateful to all those who have recognized the Russian aggression as a violation of the UN Charter.
Ukraine exercises its inherent right of self-defense. Helping Ukraine with weapons in this exercise, imposing sanctions and exerting comprehensive pressure on the aggressor, as well as voting for relevant resolutions, mean helping to defend the UN Charter.
The resolutions of the General Assembly have clearly recognized the fact that the only source of this war is Russia. But, this has changed nothing for Russia in the United Nations. However, these are the situations that have changed everything for the UN. We should acknowledge that the Organization finds itself in a deadlock on the issue of aggression. Humankind no longer pins its hopes on the UN when it comes to the defense of the sovereign borders of nations. World leaders are seeking new platforms and alliances that could reduce the disastrous scope of problems. Those problems that are met here, within these walls, with rhetoric, rather than real solutions, with aspirations to compromise with killers, rather than to protect lives. Life should be defended uncompromisingly to ensure successful protection.
But I would not be here today if Ukraine had no proposals precisely regarding solutions.
Yesterday, in my address to the UN General Assembly, I said that the Ukrainian Peace Formula had become the basis to update the existing security architecture in the world, in particular – to restore the real power of the UN Charter and the rules-based international order.
Now I would like to present the details – concrete possible actions based on the Peace Formula, notably its point 5 “Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order”.
All in the world see what makes the UN incapable unfortunately. This seat in the Security Council, which Russia occupied illegally, through backstage manipulations following the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been taken by liars whose job is to whitewash the aggression and genocide being carried out by Russia. And all the UN actions – either by the Security Council or the General Assembly – that could have stopped this aggression, are shattered by the privilege granted by this seat to the aggressor. Veto power in the hands of the aggressor is what has pushed the UN into a dead end.
Today, no matter what nation you might be… A nation with hundreds of millions of people or a small nation… A nation that bravely defends its independence or a country whose long history of independence can help others… A state in need of help or a nation that can provide genuine support… A state that relies on its army, or a state for which the UN Charter, not its army, is the first and last line of defense… Regardless of who you are, the current UN system still makes you less influential than the veto power possessed by a few and misused by one – Russia – to the detriment of all other UN members.
These days, the word “inequality” has often been heard in the UN General Assembly. Inequality is mentioned by different nations – both larger and smaller ones. It is precisely inequality that renders the UN ineffective now.
I regret that so far the UN Security Council is just the most visible platform in the world. I believe that the UN is capable of more. I am confident that the UN Charter can actually work for global peace and security. However, for this to happen, the years-long discussions of projects for UN reform must be translated into a viable process of UN reform.
And it should not be only about representation here, in the Security Council. The use of veto power – that is what requires reform, and this can be a key reform. This can be what restores the power of the UN Charter.
Ladies and gentlemen!
Five hundred seventy-four days of the full-fledged Russian aggression are five hundred seventy-four reasons for changes in this Chamber. And the number of votes in favor of these changes actually amounts to billions. The absolute majority of people in the world aspire to live in a world free of aggression. In contrast to all of us, there are only a few obsessed individuals in Moscow. Veto should not serve as a weapon for those who are obsessed with hatred and war.
What we observe in the United Nations is an increasing support for the idea that in cases of mass atrocities veto power should be voluntarily suspended. But we also observe that Russia will not give up this stolen privilege voluntarily.
So, the UN General Assembly should be given a real power to overcome the veto.
This will be the first necessary step.
If it is impossible to stop the war because all efforts are vetoed by the aggressor or those who condone the aggressor, it is necessary to bring this issue to the attention of the General Assembly. In the event of two-thirds of the votes reflecting the will of nations from Asia, Africa, Europe, both Americas, and the Pacific region – a global qualified majority – the veto should be effectively overcome, and such resolution of the General Assembly must be legally binding for all Member States.
The second step. The UN Security Council must be fully accountable to the nations of the world. I welcome the proposals of various leaders to expand the representation of nations in the Security Council. The composition of the permanent members of the Security Council should reflect the current realities and justice.
Ukraine considers it unjust when billions of people do not have their permanent representation in the Security Council. The African Union must be here permanently. Asia deserves broader permanent representation – it cannot be considered normal when nations like Japan, India or the Islamic world remain outside the permanent membership of the Security Council. One should take into account the changes that have taken place in Europe, notably that Germany has become one of the key global guarantors of peace and security. This is a matter of fact. Therefore, it is also a matter of fact that Germany deserves a place among the permanent members of the Security Council. Latin America must be represented here – permanently. And the Pacific states.
However, we should not confine our attention to those in the top seats only. There is a need to expand the participation and access to the activities of the UN Security Council and its subsidiary bodies for all members of the UN General Assembly who are not recognized as aggressors.
At the same time, the Security Council’s membership of any state should be suspended for a period of time when such a state resorts to aggression against another nation in violation of the UN Charter.
The third step. There is a need for a system to prevent aggression through early response to actions violating territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. It’s time to do this. Nations of the world should agree on such a mechanism for responding to aggression to protect others, that everyone would want for their own security.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown what can such a mechanism be. Among other things, powerful sanctions against the aggressor. Not only at the stage when Bucha has already happened, but also at the stage of the build-up of an invasion army. Anyone who wants to start a war should see before their fatal mistake what exactly they will lose when they start a war. The issue of applying such preventive sanctions should be automatically submitted for consideration of the UN Security Council when any Member of the UN General Assembly reports a threat of aggression.
Ukrainian soldiers are currently doing at the expense of their blood what the UN Security Council should do by its voting – they are stopping aggression and upholding the principles of the UN Charter.
And now, I would like to focus on territorial integrity. This is an element of both the UN Charter and our Peace Formula that is inextricably linked to the issue of clearing the territory from the occupiers. Occupation is an inexhaustible source of dynamite under the international rules-based order. So, I will provide examples of concrete steps to be taken for the security architecture to be strong. Using Ukraine as an example. Concrete things. Concrete as we, Ukrainians, are.
First: full withdrawal of all Russian troops and military formations, including the Russian Black Sea Fleet or its leaky remnants, as well as the withdrawal of all mercenaries and paramilitary formations of Russia from the entire sovereign territory of Ukraine within our internationally recognized borders as of 1991.
Second: full restoration of Ukraine’s effective control over the entire state border and exclusive economic zone, including in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as in the Kerch Strait.
In fact, only the implementation of these two points will result in an honest, reliable, and complete cessation of hostilities.
Ladies and gentlemen!
As a rule, reforms of such international institutions were made following major tragedies, major wars. We should not wait for this aggression to be over. Action is needed now. Our aspiration for peace should drive the reform.
When I was preparing the Ukrainian Peace Formula, I underpinned its points exclusively by the principles of the UN Charter and resolutions adopted by the General Assembly. This is precisely what enables the global nature of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. Nations that engage with the Formula realize that they are working for the rules-based international order – for the protection of territorial integrity and sovereignty of states, protection of human rights, prevention of aggression and genocidal policy. Naturally, the epicenter of such efforts should be in this very Chamber – the UN Security Council Chamber, and even to a greater extent, in the General Assembly Hall. If reform of UN institutions is necessary for this, then we should not be afraid of such reform. We are ready to work together with those UN members, who have joined the Peace Formula, on relevant draft resolutions and amendments to the UN Charter.
And I would like to make it clear for everyone in the world, what exactly Ukraine is proposing while addressing the nations of the world and calling on them to join the implementation of the Peace Formula.
Each country can demonstrate its leadership within the framework of one or more or all points of the Peace Formula. On the basis of the points of the Peace Formula we form groups, where national security advisors to heads of state and diplomatic representatives work. These groups are tasked to elaborate a list of decisions and legislative proposals, requiring implementation to fulfill the relevant point of the Peace Formula. We are ready to hold the inaugural Summit of the Leaders, subsequently, ten conferences at the level of advisors, diplomatic representatives, heads of parliaments in accordance with the ten points of the Peace Formula. Later, these drafts prepared by advisors will be submitted for consideration by heads of state at the respective final Summit.
Thereby, all nations of the world that respect peace can actually participate in the restoration of peace.
Cooperation is always the key word for Ukraine in international relations. This word is also key for peace. So, let peace prevail! May our institutions and our cooperation be stronger.
I thank you for the opportunity to deliver this address. Thank you for the invitation and your attention!
Слава Україні!
The cost:
Petro Burban, a father of three children and a war veteran. He went to the front lines as a volunteer in the early days of the full-scale russian invasion. Petro served for a year and a half. Then, he returned home and got a job. His first day at the Caritas-Spes humanitarian aid… pic.twitter.com/WiEZM0FObx
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2023
Petro Burban, a father of three children and a war veteran. He went to the front lines as a volunteer in the early days of the full-scale russian invasion. Petro served for a year and a half. Then, he returned home and got a job. His first day at the Caritas-Spes humanitarian aid warehouse was yesterday. Petro was killed as a result of a russian terrorist attack on this warehouse.
After receiving treatment and rehabilitation in Germany, 8-year-old Roman Oleksiv has returned home. On July 14, 2022, a russian missile struck a Vinnytsia clinic where he and his mother were waiting for a doctor's appointment. Roman's mother (along with 22 other people) died… pic.twitter.com/6WoRyjYMRH
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2023
After receiving treatment and rehabilitation in Germany, 8-year-old Roman Oleksiv has returned home. On July 14, 2022, a russian missile struck a Vinnytsia clinic where he and his mother were waiting for a doctor’s appointment. Roman’s mother (along with 22 other people) died before his eyes.
The boy suffered severe injuries. 45% of his body was burned, internal burns in some places reached his bones. After Ukrainian doctors stabilized his condition, Roman was taken to a clinic in Dresden. Doctors were amazed at the boy’s strength of character. Because of the burns on his leg, a muscle was removed.
Roman began training and is now walking on his own. He went to a German school and continued his online studies in Ukrainian.
His mask must be worn for two years to avoid scarring. Plastic surgeons vow that the boy’s face will be entirely restored later.
A major Ukrainian anti-corruption initiative is back on track:
A key instrument to prevent corruption that was suspended for security reasons at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will soon be restored after public pressure. https://t.co/H57bKFGNp4
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 20, 2023
Tokmak & Robotyne:
Here is a thread by Zaporizhzhia Salt, a Ukrainian Army commo specialist. It focuses on what is going on in and around Tokmak and Robotyne. First tweet from the thread, followed by a machine translation, followed by a machine translation of the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App.
Реальне життя і теоретики наступу. росіяни таки вирішили спробувати
затиснути фланги ЗСУ на Токмацькому напрямку, якщо вже не виходить зробити як пише книжка і оточити наше угруповання. Також вони намагаються повернутися в Роботине. Тред🧵про теорію і реальне життя як воно є 1/ pic.twitter.com/bsC12jucml— Запорізька Сіль 🇺🇦 (@solonko1648) September 20, 2023
Real life and offensive theorists. the Russians did decide to try
to pinch the flanks of the Armed Forces in the Tokmak direction, if it is not possible to do as the book says and surround our group. They are also trying to return to Robotyn. Thread 🧵 about theory and real life as it is 1/We have heard many criticisms that the Armed Forces are not coming there and are not. With too little force, you have to use bigger connections and more concentrated and many more things that people say that would not even dare to start what we do 2/Let’s assume that the Armed Forces started an offensive here by entire brigades, a large-scale run-up by large ground forces with limited air support at the tenfold advantage of the occupiers in the same air. Without the required number of air defense tactical systems to cover the attackers 3/Through minefields, in the forehead, taking into account all that I have repeatedly talked about. The result can be imagined. I do not understand why theorists do not have enough imagination to paint this picture in their head. It was a pink dream of the Russian occupiers. Perfect start and finish 4/They just raise aviation and ruin all this good in a short period of time and it will end very quickly. Crazy human casualties, destroyed limited Western equipment ( promised two divisions, but also did not reach ) and further prospects for deoccupation of the South 5/Great prospects. Only for the occupiers. And now compare what Russian aviation does to all its advantage. hunts for small groups, separate units of equipment, single MANPADS, shoots on roads most often late, etc 6/Unfortunately for the drug addict Balitsky, who talks about the “destroyed columns” of the Armed Forces near the village of Robine, the columns as such do not exist in this area. There was one bitter lesson at the beginning of the campaign that was lingering and recorded with blood on the iron. They were rebuilt and began to act in their own way 7/We have been using so-called small group tactics for a long time and widely. And the occupiers also take over it. I described how the terrorists from Wagner used its elements in Bakhmut almost a year ago. I’m adding a video that was shot, carefully stored and mounted 8/
It is probably important to note here that the direction of comparing Wagner’s tactics and the tactics of the Armed Forces during the offensive actions. Only the use of small formations is common here. All other conditions are very different. Environment, strategic tasks and the same resources and attitudes towards losses 9/During the offensive campaign in the South, the Armed Forces carry out their actions in small formations. This applies to both people and technology. Accordingly, Russian aircraft chases after us, drops tons of bombs every day, and traffic still happens. KABs are large, and whole small and difficult to hit 10/From the very beginning of the campaign, we found ourselves in a situation where we do not even have parity in the air. So there was a choice. Do not step at all, or act as we may act under these circumstances. The option that theorists talk about simply does not exist for us for the reasons described above 11/If we had parity in the air, we might see another type of offensive. Maybe he would be faster, maybe it would be easier for us. But we have a certain material base, the aggressor has more resources, he trenched while we waited for political decisions and the supply of weapons and ammunition 12/And the indicator of the success of our actions is not only direct in the form of promotion and loss of Muscovites. And indirect in the form of how desperately the Russians are trying to impose a narrative about our insane losses. To demoralize us and repel the desire of the allies to help 13/This is part of their military doctrine. Indirect means of pressure on the victim of aggression. Such a bluff. There are losses, it’s a war. And even one dead brother is too much. But if it were as the occupiers say, we would no longer have combat units left 14/And they would not increase the number of personnel near our bridgehead by 2-3 times, trying to save their position and repel at least something. What are they doing lately, acting reserves and sending parts from other directions, storming previously lost positions 15/Returning to the issue of aviation. It is a pity that we have to explain obvious things to many people in the world. We will not conduct such operations quickly without aircraft. No one will hold. That we have less resources than the parties that are in defense, and so on 16/This should be understood by theorists who believe that we should step on “great power”. At the same time, the theory says that there should be proper air support. But there is no proper. There is a limited and also in the semi-guerrilla style, which is logical 17/But I hope that common sense will win and we will have an adequate perception of the situation and an understanding of the need to support our fight against the threat that openly declares its appetites that go far beyond Ukraine 18/
Russian occupied Crimea this evening:
/1. There are reports of explosions in Crimea. Saky, Yevpatoriya and Sevastopol. Preliminary, reports of drone sounds and Russian air defense activity.
Video from Saky, (Novofedorivka air field area) pic.twitter.com/ntIvSooE3Q— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023
/3. Saky, Novofedorivka area, explosions, drones, air defence activity. pic.twitter.com/RLAhbVkK3Q
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023
Russian occupied Crimea this morning:
/2. Several minutes before reports about explosions, there were messages about Russianscreating a smoke screen in Sevastopol bay, near Inkerman pic.twitter.com/X0s38br5S8
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023
/4. Quite interesting. The source claims that this video was filmed near Simfiropol. If so, this might indicate that the attack was made not from the sea direction, but from the land.https://t.co/cj7JMN1t7g pic.twitter.com/GrkP0AvS7X
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023
/6. Reportedly, fire on targeted area in Verkhnesadove, near Sevastopol is still ongoing.
Plus FIRMS map shows fire signs on the territory of the Russian military base. pic.twitter.com/lMtb5YXqrd— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023
The Black Sea off the Romanian and Ukrainian coast:
DANGEROUS SAILING: An explosion wracked the Togo-flagged cargo ship SEAMA while transiting near the UKR coast in the Black Sea. At 0650 (Local) the ship sent a Mayday reporting the explosion. SEAMA is thought to have encountered a sea mine off the coast of Sulina, Romania,… pic.twitter.com/e2qfo43IXT
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 20, 2023
DANGEROUS SAILING: An explosion wracked the Togo-flagged cargo ship SEAMA while transiting near the UKR coast in the Black Sea. At 0650 (Local) the ship sent a Mayday reporting the explosion. SEAMA is thought to have encountered a sea mine off the coast of Sulina, Romania, near the Ukrainian border.
https://news.yahoo.com/romanian-authorities-rescue-crew-explosion-082256998.htmlThe crew of 12 was evacuated between 07:20 and 07:30 a.m., Dan Ichim, the chief captain of the Tulcea Port Authority, said that all 12 crew members had been rescued and were receiving medical treatment.
We have another Kadyrov proof of life video.
Kadyrov addresses his plane’s trips to Moscow and rumors about his own health for the first time.
He says he’s visiting his sick uncle in the presidential hospital but he himself is doing fine. The doctor names today’s date, a totally normal thing to do when you are not sick pic.twitter.com/BhIfIHr5w9
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2023
The ethnic Armenian resistance in Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh has surrendered.
Complete ceasefire announced.
De-facto Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has surrendered as all armed forces from Karabakh region will be withdrawn and NKR officials will hold a meeting with Azerbaijan in Yevlakh tomorrow. Papers will be signed bringing an end to de-facto Republic.
— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) September 20, 2023
Now we wait to see what the Azerbaijani government actually does. As in do they lift the blockage on food, medicine, and fuel or to they double down on ethnically cleansing the disputed territory.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Apparently there is once again a rumor going around that Patron has been wounded or killed. There is a new slideshow at his official TikTok channel that addresses it. They don’t embed here like the videos do, so if you want to see it, click across.
Here is a machine translation of the caption to the slideshow:
Dear friends! Please don’t believe the fakes and gossip. I’m alive and well, everything is with me good ❤️ Lick everyone 👅 (except for the hype eaters 🤭)
Open thread!
Chetan Murthy
https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-stop-supplying-ukraine-with-weapons-as-grain-dispute-grows/
I don’t understand what Ukraine’s government is doing here. Their greatest resource is goodwill, and by far their greatest ally (OK, sure the US is bigger, but Poland is really up there) is Poland. Poland has (IIRC) transferred more tanks than anybody else, they host more UA refugees than anybody else, and on and on. Ukraine should be bending over backward to keep Poland sweet: I just don’t get this.
Alison Rose
Zelenskyy’s speech was, as always, terrific. I really appreciate how clear and forthright he always is, and I especially love things like this:
The way he manages to be diplomatic and stentorian while also essentially saying “the fuck is up with this bullshit” between the lines is just aces.
Also, he had a meeting with Lula, so hopefully Zelenskyy was able to use his masterful communication skills to break through Lula’s BS, too.
The rumors about Patron being dead are so ick. Like…it feels sleazy in a different way that I can’t really articulate.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Sebastian
😂😂
Right in Lavrov’s smug face!
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: Okay but this is messed up:
This feels like snippy garbage and totally uncalled for.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: It’s all messed-up. The right thing for Ukraine to do was to ask nicely for Poland to allow *transit* of Ukrainian grain, with no grain to be sold into Poland’s domestic market. But even if Poland had refused that, Ukraine should have just *taken it quietly*, b/c the value of Poland’s support is so much greater than the value of what grain Ukraine would have been able to sell. I mean …. it’s madness. Ukraine apparently took a case to the WTO, is threatening to stop Polish exports of foodstuffs (veg, etc) to Ukraine. Just *madness*.
catfishncod
Textual triangulation: I have started into Moscow Rules, and tonight my brain is bouncing between that, The Long Telegram, and Zelenskyy’s address today. I now understand even more strongly why the UNSC has the design it does, and what Keenan was getting at with regard to the UN (or UNO, as it was called at the time). From the perspective of Russian foreign policy, Russia’s absolute veto is the only reason it participates in the Security Council at all. As the UN is too multilateral for Russia to exert direct control, it is automatically assumed hostile unless Russia is accorded absolute veto. Russia’s reaction to being thrown off will be increased covert efforts to dismantle and/or disrupt the UN — which was a terrifying prospect in 1947 but today is like threatening Dracula with a noose.
China can contemplate reforming the UNSC because it likely can find friends and influence nations to vote with it. Russia as it is today can’t even formulate that thought.
catfishncod
@Sebastian: If your enemy insists on kicking own-goals, no point in being quiet about it.
From the strategic perspective (to the extent there is Russian strategy), the point of seizing Crimea was to secure Sevastopol, and the point of seizing the Donbas was to supply and construct an improved Black Sea Fleet. Now the fleet is literally in shambles, with little prospect of rebuilding it soon if ever.
Since the Russian meta-narrative puts great stock in exerting power towards Constantinople, that’s really going to hurt once it sinks in. Pun intended.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: And long-term this is also mad: Poland gets a vote on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and that needs to be an easy vote. Ukraine is screwing that pooch, too. And FFS, Poland has said precisely that (that UA’s accession will need special terms to protect Polish agriculture) in the midst of this clusterf**k!
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Ag products are “fungible”. Once they cross the border, Ukraine cannot control their sale, and people have been taking advantage of that.
It is akin to minimum wage raises, but in reverse. All of the income gains at the bottom, have disappeared in higher rents and profiteering.
For Polish and other Balkan farmers, every truckload that crosses the border from Ukraine, is used internally by “buyers and brokers” to drive domestic prices paid to the farmers down.
Ain’t End Stage Capitalism great?
During one of the ’80’s Ethiopian Famines, Canada supplied millions of tons of grain as aid from Canadian Farms. A study on the effects was done. Funny thing. The Famine was in the north, then spread to the south. The south had lot’s of grain, problem was, no way to ship it north, with out help, no one to buy it. So the glut of Western Aid destroyed Ethiopian ag for quite a few years. Canadian farmers and Big Ag did well though.
We still don’t in our aid programs look to bolster “local” resilience.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
Right, so I could imagine that Ukraine could arrange with Poland for shipments *via long-haul rail only* and thru Poland to ports for embarcation on ships. Or something like that. Clearly just sending truckloads into Poland is something the Polish aren’t going to put up with, and Ukraine playing hardball about that is ….. colossally stupid.
Jay
Pekka Kallioniemi has a thread on one of the RuZZian Strategists/Influencers,
https://nitter.net/P_Kallioniemi/status/1704456583860654475#m
Yarrow
Re: the news bits I mentioned last night that I heard about Americans not supporting aid for Ukraine, I googled and found this CNN article from early August:
That’s the kind of thing I heard.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
It’s “supposed to be though transit”, but neither Poland or Ukraine have a process to ensure that. There is no enforcement/tracking process to ensure that a Polish Broker doesn’t load a ship with Ukrainian Grain at Polish Prices and pockets the difference, because the grain winds up at the same export terminals.
It is a complex issue to solve, acerbated by the Polish Government’s dependence on the “rural/farmer/nationalist” vote.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Both Ukraine & Poland are acting selfishly, though rationally in a narrow sense. Ukraine urgently needs more sources of revenue to finance its war effort, it cannot completely rely upon Western largesse. Poland & other CEE countries (like those everywhere) are looking to safeguard their farmers, a politically powerful if not particularly numerous constituency.
To me, opening the European market to Ukrainian farm produce (perhaps w/ a quota) would both help the Ukrainian war effort & help reduce the high inflation in the EU. However, governments typically act to protect their agricultural sectors at the expense of the larger economy & population. That is why, even at the height of Neoliberalism, most developed countries shielded their agricultural sectors behind tariff walls & massive subsidies.
I was shocked by the prices for farm produce in South Korea & Japan, & the negative effect on standard of living. Japanese & Korean tourists visiting China delighting at being able to purchase whole watermelons, cut them open & scoop w/ spoons, was actually a meme on Chinese social media. In South Korea & Japan, supermarkets sell them by the slice (or tiny varieties), at exorbitant prices.
Bill Arnold
Re Mr. Kadyrov, what happens in Chechnya if he, uhm, officially leaves the picture?
It would be a time of opportunity for ruthless people.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I covered his tactical use of nuclear weapons articles here back in June. As well as those Russians who were amplifying them and those who were disagreeing with him.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
Goats and sheep relax for the first time in decades.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: To extend your comments, DW.com (from May, 2023) has more background.
There are ways to make the transit of Ukrainian grain to external markets work, but it will take money and effort and there will be lots of temptations for traders to cheat to increase their profits. The farmers, and the people who are starving or cannot afford food, are the ones who are paying the price of VVP’s monstrous war.
Grr…,
Scott.
wjca
@catfishncod:
An interesting note on Moscow Rules. California has a system (LINK+) which allows library card holders at a public library anywhere in the state to get a book from any other public library in the state. So, when my local library didn’t have a copy, I went to the statewide system. Total number of copies in public libraries across the state turns out to be: 1 (one!).
bookworm1398
Is this an issue that really matters to the Polish economy? Or is it just because farmers are a key constituency for the ruling party? If it’s the second, would Poland quietly backtrack once the elections next month are over? Or are they genuinely upset?
Andrya
The problem of Ukrainian grain flooding Polish markets strikes me as solvable: sealed cars with special locks on high speed trains, Polish military guards wherever the train stops, Polish military guards verifying the product is loaded onto ships at a Baltic port headed outside Europe. And auditors.
If I understand the situation correctly, the Ukrainians are being stupid but so are the Poles. putin just promoted General Andrey Mordvichev, who has been talking about “a long war, because we have to ‘liberate’ Eastern Europe”. (link) Just whom does the Polish government think Mordvichev is referring to? And if they think they are safe because NATO, they should consider how reliable that will be if (G-d forbid) TIFG is elected next year.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Huh: https://www.bbc.com/news/66870559
Charts with aid to Ukraine from various countries. Maybe I got a little over-worried: it looks like Poland isn’t #2 even by GDP percentage. More like #5/#6. I still think this is stupid, b/c UA needs PL’s vote for EU accession. But I guess I got a little over-excited.
Jay
@bookworm1398:
As Another Scott pointed out, the Black Sea blockaide forces Ukrainian Farmers to sell to brokers at below production costs,
Because Ag exports are “fungible” once they cross the border, a Polish broker can buy Ukrainian ag products at a much lower rate that Polish Ag products and resell them at Polish Market Prices in Poland, or undercut competition.
This reduces the domestic market for Polish farmers at the same time, it greatly reduces the prices they are paid for their products.
Rather than going after corrupt middlemen, it’s “easier” for the Polish Government to close the border.
For the Ukrainians, opening up Europe for shipment was a life saver, so now of course, they feel “stabbed in the back”.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: You’re right, of course. Poland (and the EU) should have spent these last 18mos building a trade regime to ensure that Ukrainian goods could be shipped thru the EU to export markets, just as they should have spent the time ensuring that Latvian firms couldn’t ship microchips to Russian firms that manufacture cruise missiles (read about that today, sigh). But they didn’t.
You go to defend your country from extermination with the allies you have, not the allies you wish you had.
Jay
@Andrya:
as an example of how “fungible” Ag products are, most of the grain, seed oil and oilseeds that RuZZia ships through the Black Sea are stolen Ukrainian Grain.
Poland is going into an election year, and neither Ukraine, Poland or the EU have processes in place to prevent diversion of Ukrainian Ag to domestic markets.
So it’s a lot easier for the Polish Government to ban all Ukrainian Ag at the border, than install an enforcement regime.
Andrya
@Jay: I agree that it’s easier, just immoral and desperately shortsighted.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: OT: Just checking to make sure you got my email reply.
Jay
@Andrya:
As was/is Canada’s program of buying Canadian Ag for Aid, rather than aiding in the “local/regional” distribution networks and local farmers. If Canada had bought southern Ethiopian produce and arranged to have it shipped it to the north, there would have been no famine in the south.*
It would also have been way cheaper.
successive famines probably would have not happened or had the same impact, because there would have remained a transportation network internally, robust enough to react.
*International Aid destroyed the Southern farms, even though they had a surplus, because price wise, a farmer can’t compete with “free food”.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Did not know about the history of the food aid to Ethiopia. Unintended consequences bite again.
glc
@Jay: Reminds me of
an old book., aptly titled.
YY_Sima Qian
The demagoguery is getting nasty, decidedly unhelpful. I also did not realize that the right wing, illiberal, religio-/ethno-nationalist government in Poland is facing a challenge from the far right. Music to Putin’s ears.
way2blue
I continue to marvel at what a remarkable man President Zelenskyy is. The world is in his debt. Слава герою. Heróyam Sláva!
catfishncod
@wjca: That explains why I had to hunt down a virtual copy. Thanks!
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: Yes I did, thank you, I learned something new (and it is not often that I learn something new about Tolkien, since I am the world’s worst Tolkien fanatic).
Andrya
@Jay: I totally agree. Food aid has almost always had two goals: relieve famine and prop up the agricultural sector of the donor country (at the expense of the local agricultural sector). For famine relief I preferentially support Oxfam, because that is one anti-famine charity that does try to not damage local agriculture.