Here’s the kaboom!
The russian Black Sea Fleet will be converted into the Novorossiysk Shipping Company, according to a decision made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine… https://t.co/w2k2JY0wcu
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2023
Don't ask for war — things might go really ugly, and you may regret it. pic.twitter.com/NsNWqrZGTK
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 22, 2023
Nothing but a scratch, really, yeah pic.twitter.com/szmc71Ttzw
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 22, 2023
Unlike yesterday in the United States where Speaker McCarthy denied President Zelenskyy the honor to address a joint session of Congress, today he addressed Canada’s parliament. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
This Russian aggression must end with our victory – speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the solemn session of the Parliament of Canada
23 September 2023 – 00:22
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen!
Canada!
Before I start I just want to remind one thing. This thing is very important to understand both Ukraine and Canada. And what we are up to, what we need to do. To do together.
1983. The City of Edmonton. Its history is closely linked to the destiny of Ukraine and Ukrainian Canadian community.
That year in Edmonton the first monument to the victims of Holodomor was built in the world. Thank you so much! Was built to remember the genocide against the Ukrainian people. The genocide ordered and perpetrated by Moscow.
The first ever Holodomor monument in the world. At that time Ukraine did not yet have memorials commemorating the victims of genocide of Ukrainians. Because Ukraine was under Moscow’s control back then.
This fall will mark the 40th anniversary since that first and very important commemoration of the victims of Holodomor. A lot has changed since then. Ukraine gained independence. Ukraine is restoring its own historic memory. Dozens of other countries – their parliaments, their governments have already recognised Holodomor as a genocide of the Ukrainian people. This year alone there have been 11 of such recognitions. And I am sure that the world – the whole world – will recognise the truth about Holodomor.
But there is something that has not changed either in 40 years since the monument in Edmonton was built or in 90 years since the Holodomor. Moscow now as always is bent on controlling Ukraine and makes use of all available means to do that including genocide. It is genocide – what Russian occupiers are doing to Ukraine.
And when we want to win, when we call-on the world to support us, it is not just about an ordinary conflict. It is about saving lives of millions of people.
Literally physical salvation. Ordinary women and men, children… Our families. Whole communities. Entire cities… Russia’s destruction of Mariupol or Volnovakha or Bakhmut or any other city or village in Ukraine must not go unpunished. Life and justice must prevail – everywhere in Ukraine, for all Ukrainians.
This Russian aggression must end with our victory, so that Russia will never bring back genocide to Ukraine and will never even try to do so. Moscow must lose – once and for all. And it will lose!
Dear speakers! The whole Parliament of Canada!
Dear Justin, Mr. Prime Minister! Ladies and gentlemen of the government!
Dear representatives of all the communities and cities!
All citizens of Canada!
In my opinion, one of the most sterling qualities of your country is that justice is not an empty word for Canada.
Another extremely important fact about you is that you never, ever make a political bet on hatred and enmity. You are always on the bright side of history.
During the First World War, and in the time between those terrible wars, and during the Second World War, and during the Cold War, you always defended freedom. You have always defended justice.
I had no doubt that you would choose the side of freedom and justice when Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. Thank you.
But it is never enough only to choose the right side.
You also need to be able to be a leader on this side. And you do. You are a leader. I thank you for that, Canada!
Thank you for your political support for Ukraine. This is truly support of a leader. And it is global in scale.
Because when you are fighting for something, when you are fighting for good in human nature, the false neutrality looks obviously immoral.
When one sees true leaders, all others who are afraid to be real, to speak out, to fight – have only two options. To change or to be looked down.
I thank you, Canada, for being a real example of leadership and honesty for so many around the world – an example that inspires others to defend life.
Canada’s support for Ukraine with weapons and equipment has allowed us to save thousands of lives. This includes air defense systems, armored vehicles, artillery shells, and very significant assistance in demining. Thank you!
Canada’s leadership in sanctions against Russia for this war and terror really encourages others in the world to follow your lead.
I am especially grateful for your extremely strong, 100 percent leadership support of the Ukrainian movement to NATO.
For your strong participation in training our soldiers. It is very important. It is already a tradition – that Canada trains those who defend the world. Thousands and thousands of pilots during the Second World War. Thousands and thousands of Ukrainians now. This is what makes victory strong and indispensable – training. Thank you for this!
Thank you for your economic support. For helping Ukraine to get rid of its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel. This is progress not only for us.
Ukraine and Canada, together with their partners and friends, are demonstrating to everyone that it is quite realistic to completely cut-off our ties with dubious Russian nuclear technologies.
In addition to the purely technological danger, the Russian nuclear industry also serves Moscow’s political expansion. Russia uses nuclear technology, and the construction of nuclear power plants, like gas and oil, for political attacks against the sovereignty of other nations. Russia is trying to break the sovereignty of others through its manipulation of energy resources… all energy resources. So, the more nations are free from Russian energy resources, the sooner energy in the world will once again become just an energy resource, not a weapon against sovereignties.
Another important area of our cooperation. Literally justice.
Today, in talks with Justin, with Mr. Prime Minister, we discussed the Canadian initiative for the G7 to step-up efforts to confiscate Russian assets. Those funds that Russia and its henchmen use to pay for the war should be used to fairly compensate for the damage caused by war and terror.
Active and global work is also required to bring Russia to justice for the crime of aggression itself and for absolutely all crimes from this aggression – all deaths, every deportation of every child and adult. Every life needs to be protected. Every attacked nation needs justice to rule.
The world needs it too.
So that other potential aggressors can see that war ends in verdicts for the aggressor.
I urge you, Canada, to extend your ability to lead to other countries, especially in this matter – of justice, of prosecuting the aggression, of compensation for aggression, of making the aggressor feel how strong justice is.
And most of all, I would like to thank you, Canada, for the purely human thing – for making Ukrainians feel at home when they are here, in Canada. Thank you.
This is not just a legacy of history. This is a legacy of character.
The Ukrainian Canadian community is about millions of Ukrainian destinies that have become the destiny of Canada with all its diversity of communities.
Freedom-loving. Courage. Our special inner call for justice. The ability of our people to share comfort wherever they go, to build and create not to ruin or humiliate.
Ukrainian flags in Canada are a part of everyday life as absolute trust to Canada in Ukraine. In fact, such proximity provides many answers, including answers to questions about this war.
Can we give up? No.
Can we betray the good in human nature? No.
Can we agree to evil? No.
Can we allow our identity to be erased? No.
Ukraine and Canada are the same – we stand and we fight for life.
Ukraine, not genocide, will be victorious in this war. People will be the winners, not the Kremlin. Freedom will be the winner. Justice will be the winner. You can know this for sure about us, because you know for sure about yourself that you would never submit to evil.
Je te remercie, Canada!
And may one day soon a monument be built in Edmonton as in other cities of the world and in the cities of Ukraine to honor the victory of our people in this war. Our common victory with you.
With you – the people of Canada, with all your communities, with all your legacy, the legacy of good.
Ladies and gentlemen!
Today me and my beautiful First Lady had the honor of meeting with Governor General of Canada Honourable Mary Simon. She taught me a word from her mother tongue – “ajuinnata”. She said the meaning of this word is – don’t give-up, stay strong against all odds. And so shall it be.
Ajuinnata Canada! Ajuinnata Ukraine!
Слава Україні!
In my today’s address to the Parliament of Canada I emphasized that what Russian occupiers are doing to Ukraine is genocide. And when we want to win, when we call on the world to support us, it’s not just about an ordinary conflict. It’s about saving lives of millions of people. pic.twitter.com/lWzl8YIDf9
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 22, 2023
Before they left DC for Canada, First Lady Zelenska made an address at Georgetown University. The subject of her remarks are applicable not only to Ukraine’s fight to defend itself against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. Video below, followed by an English description of her remarks.
To prevent universities and libraries from burning anywhere in the world, evil and aggression must be punished – Olena Zelenska during her visit to Georgetown University
22 September 2023 – 16:03
As part of the visit to the United States, First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Pentagon Memorial in Washington, D.C., in honor of the 184 victims of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the U.S. Department of Defense headquarters.
“We in Ukraine understand this pain well, because our country is experiencing daily terror against peaceful cities, homes, hospitals and community centers by Russia. We know how important it is to stop this evil so that no one else dies. Ukraine stands with the United States. The United States stands with Ukraine,” the President’s wife said.
In addition, Olena Zelenska visited Georgetown University. It is the oldest university in Washington, D.C., and the oldest Catholic university in the United States. It was founded in 1789.
Among the alumni are 12 heads of state, including the 42nd President of the United States, Bill Clinton. In addition to Bill Clinton, Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service has been graduated by former Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Paula Dobriansky, former White House spokesman Ned Price, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, and other high-ranking officials.
In 2022, Ukrainian students founded the Ukrainian Club at Georgetown University. It has 50 members, 20 of whom are ethnic Ukrainians.
The university administration maintains friendly relations with the Embassy of Ukraine in the United States. In particular, on the first anniversary of the start of full-scale Russian aggression, the university hoisted the Ukrainian flag on its main administrative building.
Olena Zelenska thanked the leadership of the institution and students for their solidarity with Ukraine in the fight against the invader. The President’s wife noted: “In Ukraine, the school year began with air raids, with a risk to the lives of educators and students. People often ask: “What is Ukraine defending, what is it fighting for?” Actually, it is for this very thing. For young people to be able to study and live in their country in peace, not to die under bombs on their streets, and for teachers to be able to teach. I believe that with the support of all caring people in the world, future leaders like the Georgetown University students I met today, it will happen,” she said.
The First Lady also opened a Ukrainian bookshelf at the university, donating books on the history of literature and more. Thus, the United States became the 40th country to participate in the First Lady’s Ukrainian Bookshelf project, which has already donated 47,000 Ukrainian books to libraries around the world.
“Information about Ukraine comes not only from the news, but also from books, from our literature, history, philosophy – primary sources for long and thoughtful reading and understanding. For those who want to know more about us from us. Today I am pleased to open a shelf at the friendly Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., where there are always many Ukrainian events and meetings. The future leaders of the United States and the free world study here, and their awareness is important not only for them, but also for the entire international community,” Olena Zelenska emphasized.
Here’s some more context for First Lady Zelenska’s remarks.
I agree with how genius Timothy Snyder put it: most people in the West are well aware that russia is committing genocide in Ukraine, but many remain deeply reluctant to say so as this would oblige them to intervene more decisively while also explaining their earlier inaction
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) September 21, 2023
It is important to keep that context in mind as libraries and librarians are under both rhetorical and actual threat here in the US. It is necessary to recognize that the revisionist and genocidal ideology that drives the enemy that Ukraine faces is not confined to that theater of operation, just as it isn’t confined to Putin and Russians.
The cost:
This is Max, a war veteran and a member of the "Litai" project. He is learning how to be a drone operator.
Max lost both legs and an arm, but has not lost his will, courage, or willingness to fight as long even one enemy remains on Ukrainian territory.
The "Litai" project… pic.twitter.com/P0EA73WIe8— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2023
This little girl is very brave. Maryna is 6 y.o. Last year she lost her leg in a Russian attack on the Kherson region. She became the first child in Ukraine to have received a children’s prosthesis #StopRussia #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/T7KPUBr32p
— Mariana Betsa (@Mariana_Betsa) September 21, 2023
More from Sevastopol:
Incoming Storm Shadow/SCALP on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters.https://t.co/OGoBPZDNlQ pic.twitter.com/E9IJ5MzexX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2023
/2. Video without watermark pic.twitter.com/SyioQD3pXX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2023
/9. Reportedly, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is still on fire. pic.twitter.com/pmiKxCPBM7
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2023
Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn’t just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting. https://t.co/VKN3vhSyJv
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 22, 2023
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 22, 2023
Moscow via Russian occupied Sevastopol:
Far from declaring WWIII, Kremlin propagandists are simply ignoring today’s landmark Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol. This should be a lesson for all advocates of appeasement. Putin is not cornered – he can retreat from Ukraine and change the narrative whenever he chooses pic.twitter.com/6lO1rgndji
— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) September 22, 2023
Here’s Illia Ponomarenko’s take:
You know, folks, I'm old enough to remember the hysteria of bloodthirst that Russian propaganda was ravaging following a hilariously phony "Ukrainian attack" against a condemned hut in the middle of a forest somewhere in Russia.
It was days before the full-scale invasion as…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 22, 2023
You know, folks, I’m old enough to remember the hysteria of bloodthirst that Russian propaganda was ravaging following a hilariously phony “Ukrainian attack” against a condemned hut in the middle of a forest somewhere in Russia.
It was days before the full-scale invasion as Russia was clumsily trying to stage a casus belli.
Remember the entire Russian government machine throwing hands up in the sky calling for revenge and a sacred crusade to erase Ukraine from the world map?
Now 19 months after, 5 Russian “peacekeepers”, including a high-ranking nuclear submarine fleet officer, were actually killed by Azeri forces in Karabakh.
And absolutely no one in Russia gives a shit.
Propaganda mouthpieces are keeping their mouths shut tight. Same as for the Kremlin. Nothing has happened, it’s totally fine now.
Putin’s regime in Russia is just one giant stinking pile of bravado, hypocrisy, lying, cowardice, and disgrace.
To illustrate the evolution in Ukrainian long-range strike capability:
20/08/22 Ukrainian forces use a $10,000 Mugin-5 Pro drone to hit the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. They bought the drone from AliExpress.
22/09/23 They hit the same building with a cruise missile.
— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) September 22, 2023
Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast:
Overnight, russian terrorists carried out two Iskander missile strikes on Kurakhove, Donetsk region. A two-story building was destroyed. About 20 apartment buildings and a medical facility were damaged. 16 local residents were injured. pic.twitter.com/Ti1UKV9iVF
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2023
If you wonder how Russia’s missiles evade Ukrainian air defense, this is a good illustration:
This is how Russian missiles altered their course during the massive shelling on September 21 in an effort to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. This is why more air defense systems for Ukraine are critical@Textyorgua_Eng pic.twitter.com/FOexGLYQv5
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 22, 2023
Apparently something changed during the day yesterday as NBC is now reporting that the US will provide Ukraine with a small number of ATACMs. NBC News has the details:
President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday.
The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.
For months, Ukraine has asked for the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, which would give Kyiv the ability to strike targets from as far away as about 180 miles, hitting supply lines, railways, and command and control locations behind the Russian front lines.
Defense officials have said the U.S. does not have a large stockpile of excess ATACMS, which have a bigger payload than traditional artillery, to provide to Ukraine. Also, some in Washington have resisted supplying the weapon, known colloquially as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia.
The congressional official said there was still a debate about the type of missile that would be sent and how many would be delivered to Ukraine. They added that countries in Eastern Europe had already given Ukraine large portions of their weapons stockpiles.
"Some in Washington had resisted supplying the weapons system, known as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia."
And I don't buy this anymore.
In the wake of everything that has happened since February 22, 2022, you either know Ukraine needs ATACMS to…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 22, 2023
“Some in Washington had resisted supplying the weapons system, known as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia.”
And I don’t buy this anymore.
In the wake of everything that has happened since February 22, 2022, you either know Ukraine needs ATACMS to defeat the aggressor and end the war, or you just intend to save Putin’s ass.
https://nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
The reality though is we don’t know exactly what munitions the Biden administration will approve and send to Ukraine or when they will do so.
Morale is high.
🎥 culturalforces pic.twitter.com/cBNvzit2WL
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so please click through if you want to see it.
Open thread!
Alison Rose
As a Californian, I am biologically coded to be terrified of massive clouds of smoke. But if they’re burning up russian shit, then they’re beautiful.
This is an excellent way to put it. Oughta be a rotating tag!
Thank you as always, Adam.
Lapassionara
Thank you, Adam. I hope you know how much we, the mostly lurkers, appreciate what you are doing to keep us informed.
Jay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ukrainian-hockey-player-meet-zelenskyy-1.6975750
Nukular Biskits
Thanks, Adam.
Looking at the tweet showing the course deviations, not to mention being too tired and lazy to look the info up on Jane’s (or elsewhere), are the majority of Russian missiles GPS-guided (whatever the Russian equivalent is) or use inertial guidance, terrain mapping and/or operator-controlled?
Thor Heyerdahl
I remember as a teenager in the early 90s seeing the Holodomor memorial for the first time in Edmonton. Having studied the USSR in Social Studies only a few years before, Holodomor had somehow not been in my Alberta curriculum.
It was a somber introduction of a horrific period for Ukrainians.
Anoniminous
Nothing to see here!
Villago Delenda Est
I am SO verklempt that the Russian Black Sea fleet HQ is having some issues.
Bokonon
It is absolutely disgusting that the Putin fanboys in the Freedom Caucus were able to block Zelenskyy from addressing the House of Representatives.
It is even more disgusting that those same people are demanding the zeroing out of Ukranian military aid as the price of not shutting down the federal government.
Which is worse – doing Russia’s work for dark money donations, or doing it for free because of affinity?
wjca
Apparently the Russians still have difficulties with the Ukrainians learning where senior Russian officers can be found. And eliminated.
Slow learners? Or just great intelligence work by the Ukrainians?
wjca
Definitely the latter**. If they’re just bought, they can be dealt with by cutting off the funds. But true believers don’t change.
** If you’re talking about who is worse for the rest of us. But if you mean which are worse human beings, immoral strikes me as worse than amoral.
Bill Arnold
@Nukular Biskits:
Here’s a quick sloppy sampler from wikipedia:
KH-47 Kinzhal: (hypersonic, terminal dive from 10000M) inertial guidance, “mid-course update”. (Radar terminal guidance)
KH-55: inertial guidance with Doppler radar/terrain map updates
KH-59: inertial guidance (then TV guidance), millimeter wave active radar homing
KH-101: inertial guidance with Doppler radar/terrain map updates
KH-555: same? but “with an improved guidance system and warhead”
Shahed-136: GNSS(satellite), inertial (INS)
The Russians (well, their long-range weapon designers) seem to fans of inertial guidance, with terminal guidance to achieve precision.
Messing with inertial guidance is not easy (in the “It would be bad” sense). Some terminal guidance systems might be spoofable in theory, especially with an intact sample. But hard.
Which leaves (a) good defensive opsec, including blocking traitors and decoys/deception (b) interdicting the aircraft involved either at airbases or in the air, interdicting the ships involved either in port or at sea (or in drydock :) (c) layered air defenses, preferably partially unpredictable for the attacker.
oldster
That fire in the Fleet headquarters is burning big and hot. A lot of that building is going to be gutted.
And I approve this message.
Let’s hope we give them the ATACMs, even just 5 of them. That will be enough to drop the Kerch bridge. With 10, they can drop the bridge and sink a few ships, or drop it once and come back a few months later if they try to repair it.
Bill Arnold
@oldster:
There would be more than 5, and the actual number would be very tightly protected.
Snarki, child of Loki
It seems that some more Orcs were smoking around flammable stuff in the HQ building.
Andrya
Back in the 18th century, Samuel Johnson, who wrote the first dictionary of the English language, was asked a similar question. His reply: “Sir, there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea”.
Andrya
@Thor Heyerdahl: When putin claimed the right to control Ukraine because (he said) “russians and Ukrainians are one people” my first thought was that during the Holodomor, the Soviet government posted armed guards to prevent starving Ukrainians from entering russia looking for food. They weren’t one people then.
Adam L Silverman
@Lapassionara: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Geminid
From Reuters:
Mr. Kubrakov is Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine.
This Reuters report was made 17 hours ago. The Resiliant Africa reportedly made it to the nautical boundary with Romania in 12 hours, so the Aroyat has likely made it that far if nothing went wrong. I think it would have to sail about another 200 nautical miles to reach the Bosphorus.
Another Scott
ICYMI, from a few days ago – RFERL.org:
(Emphasis added.)
Given the earlier stories we read about issues with NATO training of Ukrainian forces, this story gives me a little hope that things aren’t as bleak on the training front as I assumed. But, I’m sure, we can always do better.
Much more at the link.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Stuart Frasier
@oldster: The ATACMS that Ukraine is likely to get has a warhead (230kg) about half the size as the one in the Storm Shadow (450kg). I’m not sure it has the oomph to drop the Kerch bridge.
trollhattan
Like that the Sevastopol missile drops were in broad daylight, message being “we don’t have to hide ourselves at night, we bring hell to you whenever we wish.”
Parallel to ATACMs, Germany purportedly close to providing Taurus cruise missiles, having much longer range than Storm Shadow. They’re said to have 600 in stock, so…. I insist they be fitted with speakers, blaring “Ritt der Walküren” in the original German.
Stuart Frasier
@trollhattan: Yeah, it looks as if the efforts to degrade Russian air defense in Crimea have been successful. It seems that 3 of 4 Storm Shadows hit their targets in the dry dock attacks last week as well.
trollhattan
@Stuart Frasier:
Yes, not only did they break through the SAM defenses, it looks like two separate strikes on the sub, which seems truly done for.
https://nitter.net/CovertShores/status/1703769745957249408#m
Anoniminous
@Another Scott:
In modern warfare sending tanks charging across a field in a Panzerkeil is a fool’s tactic. Modern ordinance iare too accurate and too deadly for that nonsense. Gearheads don’t like to admit it but the days of tank warfare, like cavalry in WW 1, are closing fast.
Anoniminous
Naval warfare isn’t my gig so I offer this for what it is worth.
Russian Submarine Hit By Missile, Rostov-on-Don, Gone
wombat probability cloud
@Lapassionara: So say we all!
Redshift
According to WaPo, the breakthrough on ATACAMS may have been to send the cluster munition-armed version:
Freemark
Exclusive Interview With Ukraine’s Spy Boss From His DC Hotel Room
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room
YY_Sima Qian
Looks like Ukraine is making/will make the Russian occupation of Crimea untenable.
Stuart Frasier
@Redshift: Ah, I thought all the cluster variants had been converted to unitary warheads by now.
Carlo Graziani
Per ISW, Russian attacks at Nova Tomachka (close to Orkhiv) reported by the Ukrainian General Staff to have been repelled by the UA. This indicates that the Russians are still attempting attacks at the base of the salient, and that the Ukrainian progress at the tip of the salient has not yet precipitated a crisis requiring the recall of those forces.
catfishncod
Isn’t that headline backwards? Shouldn’t that read “Some Things Are Going Through the Black Sea Fleet HQ”? XD
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Threaten the bases of the salient is the best way to stop the Ukrainian offensive cold & force a withdrawal. However, I am not sure that is an operation the Russian Army is capable of executing at this point.
JustRuss
@Bokonon: Yeah, the Republican hard-on for Putin is so disgusting.
Geminid
@Geminid: I’ve seen no word on the grain ship Aroyat. It should have made it to Istanbul by now. Maybe the attentive Bosphorus ship-spotters have tracked it. I believe the Aroyat’s destination is Egypt.
I’m guessing that, unlike the ships sailing under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Aroyat can sail right on through the Turkish Straits without teams of Russians slow-walking inspections like they did with the Grain Initiative.
Meanwhile, Olaksander Kubrakov says more ships are making their passage to Ukraine:
Mr. Kubrakov is Ukraine’s Vice Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine.
Geminid
@Geminid: Oleksander Kubrakov (@OlKubrakov) also posted about the Aroyat’s crew:
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: That is certainly the reason that the Russians are insisting with these attacks.
However, I’m using their persistence as a tentative leading indicator of a true Ukrainian breakthrough, on the theory that if a true crisis should develop for the Russians near the salient tip, they would have no choice but to recall those forces to reinforce their defenses, and they would certainly deprioritize supply for those assaults, weakening them and making them less assiduous, if not halting them altogether.
Another Scott
Via KyivIndependent news feed – FT.com:
Sloppy reporting in the earlier news reports saying Biden said “no”, apparently. Or, maybe a few days of misdirection?…
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: Cluster munitions are better for dispersed targets, such as railyards. Not as effective against hard structural targets, such as bridge footings, although they are probably of value against bridge decks.
I doubt that the Ukrainians will receive even a dozen missiles—6 seems closer to the mark, given their scarcity, and their unavailable new production. It will therefore be interesting to see how they choose to make them count.