(Current mood)

Earlier today the Ukrainians christened a new Russian submarine.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1705623327606280414

Very thoughtful of the Ukrainians.

Earlier today President Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Trudeau both addressed Canadian community leaders. Video below, English write up of President Zelenskyy’s remarks after the jump.

Unity helps us all become stronger, reinforce freedom and move towards victory – Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting with representatives of the Canadian community

23 September 2023 – 13:48

During a working visit to Canada, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska, together with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau, met with Canadian parliamentarians, representatives of political, business and expert circles, academia and the Ukrainian community.

“Слава Україні! I am so proud to hear it in Canada. These words unite the whole Canada, all the people, all communities and cities. Слава Україні! This is how unity sounds. I am proud that we achieved unity like this. It is so inspiring!” the Head of State noted.

According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, unity helps us all become stronger, reinforce freedom and move towards victory, which will surely come.

“I am so proud that Ukraine inspires, that Ukrainians inspire and so do Canadian Ukrainians. I thank you – all of you – that you are active. You let others feel Ukraine’s vibe, the vibe of “Слава Україні” – the vibe of people who never surrender,” the President addressed the Ukrainian community in Canada.

The Head of State thanked the grandparents of Canadians of Ukrainian descent who saved the Ukrainian identity and contributed to making Canada a great country. He expressed confidence that Canada would never lose Ukrainian energy.

“You are helping to protect Ukraine even now, when we are defending and will definitely defend our independence. You help volunteers. You have sheltered our people. Canada trains our warriors. Canada gives weapons to Ukraine to move forward, to push back Russia. And I thank you for this – thank you all!” Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized.

He expressed confidence that one day both nations would celebrate Ukraine’s victory in unity.

“Bullets and bombs can cause a lot of damage, but they can never take away the sense of community. I felt it when I was in Kyiv during the war. I feel it here in Canada. Because Canadians and Ukrainians have had a special bond for generations. So many Canadians of Ukrainian descent helped build our country, and now Canada and Canadians will help rebuild Ukraine for generations to come,” said Justin Trudeau.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Olena Zelenska also spoke with the participants of the event.

The two also did a joint press conference late yesterday. That video is below.

O Canada!

https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1705401591853883766

https://twitter.com/NationalDefence/status/1705323643037704266

For full disclosure, Wayne was one of my students at USAWC in Seminar 12. He’s good people.

The Drive‘s The Warzone did an interview with Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Commanding General of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR/HUR). Let’s start with LTG Budanov’s assessment of what is going on with the ATACMs, followed by some proper excerpts:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1705284842554839368

Here are some excerpts:

Budanov, who reached out to me last week asking if I wanted to meet up with him during an otherwise secret trip to D.C., is now one of the world’s most famous sitting generals. He is the architect of the constant asymmetrical operations against Ukraine’s great foe, Russia, and has become the subject of numerous stories, including interviews with The War Zone, and ubiquitous memes (more on that later).

A top target of Russia, it is no longer safe for him to meet in a crowded hotel lobby, so I agree to meet him in his room. Outside his door stands a burly man dressed in black, clearly security.

“Do you have a gun?” I am asked.

“No, I am a journalist,” I respond and with that, I am waived in.

Budanov greets me with a smile and a handshake. Unlike our last encounter, he is dressed not in his uniform, but in a dark blue suit, blue shirt and salmon-colored tie.

At his request, out of concern for his security, we agree to hold the interview until after his journey to the U.S. is finally revealed through very public visits to the Pentagon and White House with his president, new defense secretary and their contingents.

Our exclusive conversation, reported in full, has been lightly edited for clarity and context.

TWZ: It’s been a while since we actually saw each other. Is this the first time you’ve been back in Washington D.C. since?

KB: Yes

TWZ: What brings you to Washington? Who you meeting with and what goals do you have for this visit? Have US officials asked you for any advice or insights?

KB: My current visit is not actually mine. It’s part of a presidential visit and I’m assisting him on this trip. And surely there are meetings waiting for me with military leaders of this country as part of the presidential delegation.

At his request, out of concern for his security, we agree to hold the interview until after his journey to the U.S. is finally revealed through very public visits to the Pentagon and White House with his president, new defense secretary and their contingents.

Our exclusive conversation, reported in full, has been lightly edited for clarity and context.

TWZ: It’s been a while since we actually saw each other. Is this the first time you’ve been back in Washington D.C. since?

KB: Yes

TWZ: What brings you to Washington? Who you meeting with and what goals do you have for this visit? Have US officials asked you for any advice or insights?

KB: My current visit is not actually mine. It’s part of a presidential visit and I’m assisting him on this trip. And surely there are meetings waiting for me with military leaders of this country as part of the presidential delegation.

TWZ: I want to talk a little bit about the ongoing counteroffensive. I know that you’re not the general in charge of land forces, but as the eyes and ears of the Ukrainian military, what’s your assessment? Do you still believe that Ukraine will retake Crimea this year or will a counteroffensive push on until next year?

KB: Our counteroffensive operation started at the beginning of summer and is still ongoing. It hasn’t stopped. And as you’ve rightly said I’m not the commander-in-chief of the General Staff. That is why questions about the tempo or progress of the counteroffensive operation should be addressed to the General Staff. But speaking of Crimea, you could not have missed that since the middle of August, there’s been a certain intensification going on with regard to Crimea, and that might indirectly give you a hint about the answer to your question.

So first of all, the fact itself is that we’re engaging the military infrastructure and military targets in occupied Crimea and the occupier’s infrastructure. If we’re going deeper into strikes against the air defense system, it’s more complicated here. First of all, the air defense systems themselves are very costly equipment and it takes a lot of time to produce those and Russian flags those systems because all this inventory is currently engaged in fighting against Ukraine and also in protection of Moscow. They’ve taken away air defenses from everywhere else.

That is why, naturally, when we engage in another and another air defense battalion of the Russian military, they need to think about where they can pull those systems from and where are they able to tolerate less defenses in other places.

The second point in engaging defenses is that we’re making those holes in the overall air defense coverage. Those holes are exploited for other things. Also, we’re depleting their air defense missile stocks because those are not limitless. And from the political standpoint, we’re also demonstrating the obvious inability of Russian air defense systems, which respectively makes them less lucrative on the world arms markets.

TWZ: And this is part of a coordinated campaign, it’s not just Crimea, right? You’re doing this inside Russia, with the strikes on air bases and other targets and on Moscow?

KB: Let’s put it like this, we have never confirmed [attacks on Moscow] officially (Budanov laughs) and I will be keeping that stance. But I can share my opinion about those strikes. All the above-mentioned factors clearly coincide with the strikes inside Russia. Especially when we’re talking about the obviously decreasing demand for Russian weapons because when the whole world sees that some drones are attacking Moscow, nobody wants to buy Russian air defense systems any longer. And that is very painful for them. And it links back to additional factors which are absent when we’re discussing Crimea.

One side note. There’s a completely opposite situation in terms of demand on weapon systems. There’s a very high demand on Ukrainian drones now. We can’t sell those now because all of them are used for warfighting, but after the war ends, this will have a lot of meaning.

Now speaking about the strikes deep into Russia, including Moscow, that are conducted by someone. There is a social side of it. Because now the Russian population and especially large Russian businesses really start to feel the impact of war. Because before that, it was just a war going on on TV. Yes, it did have some financial impact on big players, but smaller ones weren’t even touched. But demonstrative strikes, such as strikes against Moscow city – the skyscraper district in Moscow – demonstrates to everyone that now it touches upon them.

Besides that, it undermines the belief of the population in an all-powerful Russian regime that is the strongest one in the world. They start asking those logical questions, like: “where’s our air defenses that are supposed to protect us?” And they start blaming their authorities for that, for stealing all the money. The next aspect is strikes against critical military infrastructure. It includes oil refineries that supply fuel to the warfighting as well as the factories and plants that produce components for military equipment. So that’s the overall picture.

TWZ: Talk to me about the sabotage attack on Chkalovsky Air Field, located less than 20 miles from Moscow.

KB: Those were activities of sabotage groups.

TWZ: Are they connected to you?

KB: Of course all of those [groups] are in some kind of connection with us.

TWZ: Did you suggest that attack? Orchestrate it? Plan it?

KB: Of course. We’re assisting them, let’s put it that way.

TWZ: Did you select the target and help them figure out how to enter the base and blow up the planes?

KB: Let’s skip that one.

TWZ: What effect is being able to breach such a secure base having in Russia?

KB: The explanation here is the same because it was an attack conducted in a secure area actually inside Moscow because that airfield is within the greater Moscow [region]. It demonstrates the obvious inability of the regime to protect even its most critical and secure infrastructure. And if we’re talking about airframes, of course, Russia has a lot of those but some of them, such as the Il-20, are not in big numbers available.

TWZ: Can you talk about how this will progress into the winter? When we first met and I asked if you were concerned about fighting in the cold, you said, ‘It’s no problem.’ So does this pending weather concern you?

KB: It’s not a problem at all. And as everyone saw last time, it’s not a problem to fight in winter for both sides – for us and for Russians. It’s not a pleasant thing to do, but it’s not a big deal. There’s one very important nuance that makes a difference between current warfighting and the previous periods of fighting. Currently, all main instances of fighting are done on foot without using any materiel. This is linked to the high saturation of artillery systems on the forefront and also portable anti-tank weapons. And that’s true for both sides. Those [armored] systems are not enough to create a gap in the orbits of the enemy  – to create a powerful breakthrough as in classic doctrine. But it is well enough to deter any attempt of the enemy of any side to conduct that breakthrough with materiel and convoys.

Also, there’s a high level of saturation with both anti-personnel and anti-tank minefields. Anti-tank mines are making a lot of difference because when such a mine goes off on their wheels, it completely destroys the wheels and that piece of materiel is not able to move any further. Damage done to a piece of equipment is minimal but it still cannot move any longer. Those anti-tank mines are a big problem for those tracked vehicles. And a new feature that hasn’t been observed anywhere before is the high number of FPV [First Person Video] suicide drones on both sides which are able to engage practically any piece of equipment.

All of those above-mentioned factors reduced the possibility of using armored equipment in practically all of the main directions to the minimum. Now that hardware is only used for evacuation or to swiftly transport infantry teams to a particular spot but it doesn’t take part in the fighting.

TWZ: Are you confident that’s going to happen? Let me step back to the situation in June near Malaya Tokmachka where there were a number of armored vehicles were destroyed.

KB: Actually there wasn’t that much materiel that was destroyed. There was a lot of damaged materiel. And by now it’s repaired. The number of those that were destroyed was not that high. But it’s the very example we’ve just talked about. So if if we just deploy some battalion tank group into the battlefield somewhere, just as long as it gets under the range of artillery it will get hit.

I will share two other examples on the enemy side. Similar situations could be observed during Russian attempts to attack Vuhledar last winter. The same thing happened. They went on attack in combat convoys and there were dozens of pieces of equipment that just didn’t get through. And by the way, what is peculiar about that specific operation was that it was commanded personally by Gen. [Sergei] Gerasimov, and when all that equipment was destroyed, he blamed everyone around him and just left the frontline.

I’ll provide you with one more different example. It’s about how Wagner units advanced. When they did manage to take Bakhmut [on May 21], they were not using armored vehicles. They were only using artillery support to infantry actions on foot. So practically they were just using infantry.

Much more at the link!

Oleshki, Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1705482563907678209

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1705476672793813347

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1705476369998643560

Verbove, Zaporzhzhia Oblast:

CNN has the details:

The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.

“On the left flank [near Verbove] we have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further,” Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN Senior International Correspondent Frederik Pleitgen during an interview on Friday, though he conceded his troops were moving slower than anticipated.

“Not as fast as it was expected, not like in the movies about the Second World War,” he said. “The main thing is not to lose this initiative (that we have). And, well, not to lose it in practice, with actions.”

The general’s claim is the latest indication by Ukrainian officials that inroads are being made on the southern front in the war with Russia.

Ukrainian forces claimed in recent weeks to have penetrated the “first line” of Russian strongholds in the Zaporizhzia region, in a sign that Kyiv was edging closer to Moscow’s sprawling network of fortified trenches along the southern front.

Russian-appointed officials in occupied Zaporizhzhia have given a different picture of the fighting. CNN is unable to verify the battlefield reports of either side. However, open-source analysis of available video suggests that some Ukrainian units have crossed through an important line of Russian defenses near the village of Verbove.

Ukraine’s long-term goal is to break Russia’s “land bridge,” which links territory it holds in the east with annexed Crimea.

At the beginning of September Ukrainian forces said they had taken the village of Robotyne and were pushing east toward the village of Novoprokopivka. Soldiers said they expected battles for control of high ground to the south and east of the village as they approached the next layer of Russian defenses. Verbove is a few miles east from Robotyne.

However, Tarnavsky told CNN he believed the big breakthrough of the counteroffensive would be if Ukraine could take Tokmak, a strategic hub for Russia, which is its first major target in its fight in the south.

CNN reported earlier this week that the Ukrainian forces were still some 20 kilometers from Tokmak, struggling to break through the multiple layers of Russian defenses.

“I believe yes [there will be a big breakthrough],” Tarnavsky said. “I think it will happen after Tokmak. At the moment (the Russians) are relying on the depth of their defensive line there.”

Rather than the ‘Surovikin line’ – a defensive line built on the orders of former General Sergey Surovikin, while he was in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine – Tarnavsky says the bigger issues are the “crossroads, tree lines and minefields between the tree lines.”

“[There’s] a combination of small harmful enemy defense groups that currently are planted very precisely and competently,” he said. “But the actions of our fighters force them to slowly pull back when they face our assault squads.”

The general conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.

“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”

More at the link!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1705542323763839047

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1705697068214309009

Open thread!