Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Bark louder, little dog.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Second rate reporter says what?

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

If marriage is the equivalent of selling yourself into slavery, women with self respect should reject the offer.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 588: Today in Russian Delusions

War for Ukraine Day 588: Today in Russian Delusions

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Russia’s occupation governor for Zaporizhzhia decided to take both his alternative, revisionist Russian history and delusions out for an on air interview:

Obligatory:

The issue, of course, is that Russia has the ability to generate mass in ways that neither Ukraine, nor the NATO member states that Balitsky is talking about have. The sheer size of the Russian population allows them to partially compensate for the shortcomings of their theater strategy and campaign plan; how they’ve actually been fighting; the graft/waste, fraud, and abuse in their logistics and acquisitions programs; the fact that the stockpiles they have left are older and older munitions and material, etc. Combine this with the fact that the one key logistics and acquisition lesson we’ve learned over the past eighteen months is that just on time delivery, agile solutions, lean whatever does not work real well for an interstate war. We don’t have enough of key munitions, weapons systems, and other material to provide key items to the Ukrainians in bulk. The production lines for some of it were shut down as we are phasing them out. Production lines for others haven’t even come on line yet. And we’ve learned that many if not most of our NATO allies are in worse shape than we are.

This is no way to run a superpower.

Just a quick above the jump follow on note from what I wrote yesterday about the shutdown and McCarthy’s defenestration. The Democrats are completely right in their strategy to stay out of this internal GOP House caucus dispute. It would be better if the national news media, especially the journalists that cover politics, could actually escape from the GOP/Fox News/conservative movement framing that somehow no matter what happens it is always the Democrats job to fix it, but since that’s not going to happen we’ll just leave that there. The other issue, that everyone time the House GOP caucus does it’s Sheriff Bart taking himself hostage reenactment the Democrats come up with a solution that almost always rewards the House GOP caucus’s hostage taking, is a problem. I get it, the Democrats want to be responsible, they actually care about policy and governance, and they want to try to demonstrate appropriate legislative behavior. Unfortunately doing all of those things just teaches the House GOP caucus that no matter how bad the behavior of its members, they will get at least a small reward from their Democratic colleagues. In this case the real cost of reinforcing what the House GOP caucus has socially learned by once again being rewarded is funding for Ukraine. I will be very happy to come back and mark my beliefs to market above the fold if I’m wrong, but I do not think that the $24 billion for Ukraine that was stripped from the CR will pass as a standalone bill between now and mid-November. I don’t think it will be included in another short term CR, any of the twelve outstanding appropriations bills, or an omnibus appropriations bill – one of which will be needed to keep the government open past mid-November. Given the behavior of the House GOP caucus and its leadership over the past 24 to 36 hours, I fully expect we’re going to see a shutdown in mid-November. They’ve convinced themselves that what happened yesterday is not their own fault, but the fault of the Democrats. Which is why McHenry decided to act the way he did while providing over the chamber yesterday and why he has decided he’s going to teach Nancy Pelosi a lesson.

I know a couple of you came in with some late questions about how we could meet the Ukrainians needs with existing stock or the remaining $5 billion or so, I promise to get to them in tomorrow night’s update.

Now we wait.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Work in the regions on the physical protection of critical facilities and urgent reconstruction has to be carried out by winter – address by the President of Ukraine

4 October 2023 – 19:08

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report for the day. There were different meetings, and among the main ones was a meeting with the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate. A substantive one. About good things for Ukraine – we managed to accomplish something important in security matters. More details later.

On the conference call today, there was a report by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine on countering collaborators. Also an informative one.

Overall, we have reasons to thank our guys from the Security Service today. Important operations, and most importantly, effective ones. Well done!

I held a meeting with government officials – we agreed on it yesterday in Kharkiv. We have various government programs to restore the regions and help people who lost their homes. There is work on rebuilding the social sector and physical protection of energy facilities. I have instructed to draw up a detailed report on these issues.

We are doing our best to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems before winter. And now, by the way, we are expecting certain decisions from our partners. But all the work in the regions that relates to the physical protection of critical facilities and urgent reconstruction has to be completed as much as possible by winter.

Today I also had an important conversation with Azerbaijani President Aliyev. I thanked him for the humanitarian aid provided to our country, in particular for our energy sector. We reaffirmed our common commitment to the principles of territorial integrity and protection of state sovereignty. We discussed our views on global and regional security formats and the security architecture in general.

And today, I presented state awards to our Turkish friends. The Ambassador of Türkiye to Ukraine, who actively interacts with our country, fruitfully and powerfully strengthens our relations personally. In particular, he is working on the implementation of the Peace Formula. I also awarded the head of the Turkish company “Onur”, which actively cooperates with our country, invests, creates jobs and helps our defense. I am grateful for the support.

And we are preparing for intensive international activities – this week and next week should be productive for Ukraine.

We are constantly adding to our warriors’ power!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also did an interview with Italian TV station Sky TG24. Video followed by the English language description from the President of Ukraine’s website below.

Ukrainians are doing everything for this to be the last war in Europe and the world – Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Sky TG24

4 October 2023 – 20:28

Ukraine is fighting back against the Russian aggressor, defending the principles of international law and doing everything to make the current war the last one in Europe and the world, so assistance to our country must continue. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with the Italian TV channel Sky TG24.

“It should be understood that Ukrainians are doing everything to make this the last war in Europe and in the world. And this is why we are fighting – for the sake of respect for international law, human rights, sovereignty, territorial integrity, respect for life,” the Head of State said answering the hosts’ questions.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukrainians had prevented Russia from occupying our country at the cost of their own lives.

The President thanked the Italian audience and the entire Italian society for supporting Ukraine at the level of ordinary people.

“This support is very important. At the beginning of the war, the support of the whole of Europe and the world helped us join forces in the fight against the aggression of the Russian Federation,” he said.

The Head of State emphasized that the world cannot get tired of helping Ukraine, because our country is repelling the Russian aggressor.

“Of course, everyone wants swift developments on the battlefield, but it happens differently. The full-scale war has been ongoing for the second year in a row. Everyone is getting tired: the land itself is getting tired, people are getting tired – it’s obvious. We are highly motivated. We are going to defeat the enemy. The initiative is now in our hands. Even if it’s slow, but every day we are driving Russia out of our land step by step,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President noted that the Ukrainian military has to overcome a number of difficulties at the front: densely mined areas, shortage of weapons and ammunition, lack of air defense systems.

“Winter is coming. This is another challenge for all our citizens: our civilians and our warriors. We must go through this winter with dignity, without losing the initiative we have on the battlefield,” the Head of State emphasized.

A new report from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees makes the cost clear:

Another six cases of extrajudicial executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by russian occupiers have been confirmed in a new report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

A group of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Donetsk region were forced to transport ammunition through a minefield for three months. One POW was killed after stepping on a mine, another was shot for refusing to obey orders. Five others were seriously injured.

The report mentions the execution of two prisoners of war in March 2022 in the village of Sloboda, Chernihiv region.

It also confirms the authenticity of two of the most widely circulated videos of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war — one in which the head of a Ukrainian prisoner of war is severed with a knife, the other of the execution of Hero of Ukraine Oleksander Matsievskyi.

 

Klischiivka:

Robotyne:

First tweet from Tatarigami’s thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App.

2/ In Section One, which displays satellite imagery of the tree line near Robotyne on July 13th, it is evident that while there are some noticeable changes near the tree line, such as earthworks, the majority of positions remain concealed and not clearly visible. 
3/ In Section Two, the August imagery exposes the presence of russian positions after tree destruction. many observers primarily focused on visible defensive lines, often missing concealed positions. This led to a misconception of vast, empty spaces between the fortifications.Image
4/ In the final, third section depicting the situation on September 11th, we can finally discern a system of trenches and concealed individual positions along the tree line.Image
5/ Let’s take another look and run a brief comparative analysis. In this case, independent observers may focus on the visible trench, ignoring concealed positions. However, the absence of foliage reveals the defensive positions clearlyImage
6/ Overall, these positions are typically detectable by drones, particularly when occupied by enemy forces. Yet, there have been cases where they eluded detection, were only partially revealed, or mistakenly presumed unmanned, catching approaching Ukrainian forces off guard. 
7/ As events progressed, it became clear that these seemingly empty areas were fortified and ready for defense. The remaining spaces were heavily mined and closely watched by drones, which allowed artillery and loitering munition to attack approaching troopsImage
8/ This can also partly explain the lack of a swift advance after Ukrainian forces breached the visible defensive line, with AT trench and dragon’s teeth.
Ukrainian troops must still face enemy positions in many tree lines, along with FPVs, artillery, mines, and helicopters. 
9/ Continuing offensive progress hinges on artillery ammo availability for advancing troops, as it’s vital to suppress numerous enemy defenses and force their withdrawal. Additionally, the readiness of reserves to advance and take positions remains crucial. 
10/ The comprehensive analysis can be found on my project’s website, “Frontelligence Insight,” listed in my bio. It offers a more detailed and expanded version of this thread.Image
11/ I kindly request you to like, follow, and share the first message in the thread.

These materials are accessible thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee. This support enables me to acquire and share imagery with analysis, including this thread. 

Kharkiv & Bakhmut:

Mariupol:

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

Russian blogger came to Mariupol and found the real meaning of the “Russian World”: people living in and around the new builds devastated the playgrounds. After the video gained traction, the area was “cleaned”. The blogger returned for a check but found from the locals that the basements of these new builds were full of water after the guttering burst, and authorities did not want to deal with it. The foul smell fills properties across the whole house. Watch till the end.

Source: https://youtube.com/@walkandtalk_

And the full text of Borodin’s:

What do the “Potemkin villages” of new buildings in Mariupol hide? What is hidden behind the beautiful picture of Russian propagandists where “Mariupol residents have already received housing and are living better than before”?

A Russian blogger came to Mariupol to show the revival of the city and add optimism to the situation, but SOMETHING WENT WRONG…

Listen to how ordinary city residents live in the once prestigious Cheryomushki district after more than 1,5 years of Russian occupation:
– out of 25 apartment buildings, only 2.5 houses remain after Russian attack;
– no lighting at all in the night in a whole district;
– the occupying power avoids as much as possible compensation payments to people for repairs (they refuse compensation if a person, for example, has a formal 8m2 in a barn outside the city);
– they give compensation not for the size of the apartment, but for 1 person registered in it);
– people were simply deceived by promising full renovations of apartments destroyed by Russian bombings immediately after the occupation of the city – and then the administration simply retracted their words;
– residents to whom Russia today pays $100 pensions are offered to make repairs in their apartments themselves, which approximately costs about $10,000;
– the sewerage collector in a district was destroyed and not restored;
– the city water supply service does not work because workers are not paid and are on strike.

In fact, all these people were liberated not from the “mystical Nazis,” but from all their property, which they had earned throughout their lives. But instead they were given Russian passports!

This sentence is still actual always: “Russia will always screw you over, son!”

Russian occupied Crimea:

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has stated that units of the Special Operations Forces landed on the territory of the occupied Crimean peninsula and attacked the Russians, and after completing the mission, they retreated.

Source: Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence; Andrii Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda

Quote from Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence: “The Stugna and Bratstvo special operations units, as part of the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence’s special unit headed by Tymur, landed on the territory of the Crimean peninsula and inflicted fire on the Moscow occupiers!

Crimea will be Ukrainian! Glory to Ukraine!”

Details: Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence posted a video showing the boats heading towards the shore.

The Wall Street Journal has reported this afternoon that Russia has removed its Black Sea fleet from Crimea:

Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.

President Biden has called the US’s EU and NATO allies to (try to) reassure them regarding the failure to get the next $24 billion in military aid for Ukraine passed. The Financial Times has the details:

President Joe Biden hosted a call with western leaders to co-ordinate assistance for Ukraine on Tuesday following a compromise to keep the US government open in a deal that excluded more aid for Kyiv.

The call appeared to be aimed at reassuring jittery allies as Ukraine tries to gain some advantage in a fight that looks increasingly like a stalemate and as Kyiv prepares for another challenging winter.

The Biden administration is pressing Congress to hold another vote soon on additional funds for Ukraine but infighting on Capitol Hill and uncertainty over Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s grip on power have put immediate additional assistance in doubt.

The White House would announce another lethal aid package for Ukraine soon, officials said, but they added that Congress would need to vote soon.

“We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted. Time is not our friend,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday. The Pentagon had about $5bn left in authorised funds, but this was only enough to meet Ukraine’s needs “a little longer”, Kirby said.

He added: “A lapse in support for even a short period of time can make all the difference on the battlefield. Just as critically, such a lapse in support will make [Russian president Vladimir] Putin believe that he can wait us out.”

Kirby said it was clear from the call “that the world is watching”, adding that Biden had told other leaders that he was confident of future bipartisan support for Ukraine.

Included on the call were leaders from Canada, Italy, Japan, Poland, Romania, the UK, France, Nato, the European Commission and the European Council.

Biden “reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes”, according to a White House account of the call which said other leaders had “echoed their commitments”.

The participants discussed providing Ukraine with necessary ammunition and weapons, strengthening its air defences and preparing to repair Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter, the White House said. Additionally the leaders are working to bring in new donors for the country’s economic recovery.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said it was a “good phone call” and added that Europe’s support for Ukraine was “unwavering”. She said she had proposed €50bn in macro-financial assistance for Ukraine, pledged 1mn rounds of ammunition to be delivered by March 2024 and promised the EU would take action to ensure “full accountability for Russian crimes against Ukrainians”.

A statement from the German chancellery said the call had focused on “the fixed conviction of all participants that we must support Ukraine in its defensive fight against Russian aggression for as long as is necessary”.

As Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited his troops in north-eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, an adviser in his administration called on Kyiv’s western allies to “call a spade a spade”.

“You (our partners) also badly need Ukraine to have artillery shells, long-range missiles and air defence systems,” Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Because this is about existence, about . . . what is cheaper . . . to stop Russia now or to wait until Russia’s bloodthirsty ambitions grow significantly,” he added.

Edward Luce, writing in The Financial Times, explains why the mess that the House GOP caucus has created is bad news for Ukraine and its war effort.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says there is no “expiration date” on Ukraine’s willingness to fight Russia. But it is becoming increasingly hard to ignore the potential shelf life of America’s support for his cause.

Matt Gaetz, the ultra-Maga lawmaker who led the move on Tuesday to eject Kevin McCarthy as Republican Speaker, cited an alleged secret side deal McCarthy made with Joe Biden to keep funding Ukraine. This was in spite of the fact that McCarthy had struck $6bn in Ukrainian aid from last weekend’s deal to keep the US government open. It capped a bleak few days for Zelenskyy. Even assuming the next Speaker is sympathetic to Ukraine, they would be in an even weaker position than McCarthy.

The Republican party has been moving in Russia’s direction for a while. More than eight in 10 Republican voters now support candidates — Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy — who would sever aid to Ukraine. Roughly half of Americans likewise want to pull the plug. For the first time since the 1920s, Americans are likely to be given the option next year of putting an isolationist in the White House. That would be a fateful choice.

The “isolationist” label is often misused. It does not automatically mean neutrality in fights between foreigners, though that sentiment was a feature of the US republic at its birth. It can also mean bias towards one side. Charles Lindbergh, who headed the America First Committee in the early stages of the second world war, made his sympathies for Nazi Germany plain. All kinds of supporters — pacifists, big business and anti-Semites — flocked to his banner.

Today’s rising isolationism is not about even-handedness between Russia and Ukraine; its driving force comes from Republicans in sympathy with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The others are getting sidelined or pushed out. In an effort to keep his job, McCarthy refused Zelenskyy’s request to address Congress when he was in Washington two weeks ago. Last Saturday, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, tried to pass a separate bill that would have reinstated the Ukrainian funding. He was blocked by Republican colleagues.

America’s two parties broadly agree that China poses the main challenge to US hegemony. Russia, however, is a real-time arsonist in the western neighbourhood. US isolationism’s roots were about avoiding entanglements with Europe. It did not have much to say about the rest of the world. Lindbergh volunteered in the Pacific after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor. The country’s postwar isolationists, led by Senator Robert Taft, opposed Nato’s creation in 1949 yet were outraged by America’s failure the same year to stop China’s communist revolution. “Who lost China?” was an isolationist rallying cry. A similar pattern is visible today. Isolationist Republicans say the Ukraine war is diverting America’s focus from the true threat in China. Ramaswamy refers to Zelenskyy as “their Pope” — pointing at pro-Ukraine colleagues. Beijing, on the other hand, wants to turn Americans into “Chinese serfs”.

The imminent threat assessment points to Moscow. Putin has been explicit about his plans to re-establish the russky mir (Russian world). He dismembered Georgia in 2008, seized Crimea in 2014, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and then annexed four Ukrainian regions. The last time Chinese forces invaded another country was Vietnam in 1979; it went badly. Today’s most overblown fears about China’s designs sound more like a replay of the 1950s McCarthyite “red scare” than a balanced appraisal of America’s current risks.

There are three overlapping issues here. The first is that the majority of the GOP base has now fully adopted the pro-Putin, pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine, anti-American support to Ukraine position. This will have major electoral effects as Republicans running for reelection to the House and the Senate, especially for the House, will move themselves into line with their primary voters positions on Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and American support to Ukraine in order to win their primaries. Which for almost all House GOP members is the only election they have to worry about. This will also force GOP senators to move towards these positions, but because they run statewide it may not happen quite as fast. This shift in the GOP base, the conservative movement whatever conservative now means, and its effect on Republican running for the House, Senate, and the presidency will make it harder and harder for the US to sustain its support for Ukraine. As I wrote in an update, as well as that one email newsletter Cole asked to do for you all while th site was being held hostage, we needed to give Ukraine everything we would ever possibly give them prior to the swearing in of the current Congress in 2023 because if even one chamber flipped eventually the aid was going to stop because it would be stopped. We’re just about there now. The third issue here is that the Republican Party and conservative movement framing of the PRC problem set has been adopted lock, stock, and barrel within the US nat-sec, defense, and foreign policy establishment within the beltway, those trying to influence it, and those aspiring to be part of it. As a result and as with so many of our domestic and foreign policy issues, the conceptual space has now been so completely artificially narrowed that every really creative and potential effective policy option and strategy to achieve them to move US-PRC relations on to a better footing are all now outside of the artificially narrow boundaries that have been set. As a result, the drumbeat for a war with the PRC will only grow over the next several years given the misinterpretation and misunderstanding of Xi’s statements about the what the PLA’s state of readiness needs to be by 2027 and why the PLA should achieve that state of readiness. As I type this the US nat-sec, defense, and foreign policy establishment is in an ongoing process of talking itself into a future war with the PRC, setting the conditions for it, and establishing the justifications that it would be the PRC’s fault.

Simon Ostrovsky’s reporting below is an example of this informational framing capture regarding Russia. If this is accurate, this guy and his company should be subjected to a full counterintelligence investigation, have clearance and access pulled, prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, and be shutdown.

Here’s more on Russia’s annual mobilization:

Shoygu says he is satisfied with the amount of fresh human resource at his disposal, and more are coming every month voluntarily. This is not surprising, as the country that can offer a salary of $300 per month on average has heaps of desperate people who are ready to kill and die to feed their families. Having said that, he could have pulled this numbers out of his bottom anyway.

But don’t be fooled thinking the mobilisation is not coming, it definitely is on the cards still. I believe it would have already happened if it wasn’t for Prigozhin’s March of Justice which scared the Kremlin Looney shitless. With the so-called “presidential campaign”, i.e. fake elections, as 23 years is not enough for the Tsar, on the way, the last thing they want now is discontent among the populus.

 

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Рідко показую вам тут нашу роботу через чисельні обмеження у TikTok, але це – не можу не показати🔥 #fakefire #fakesituation #fakeall

♬ оригінальний звук – Максим Лободзінський

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I rarely show you our work here because of the number of restrictions on TikTok, but I can’t help but show you this 🔥 #fakefire #fakesituation #fakeall

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

56Comments

  1. 1.

    eversor

    I’m not worried about the Poles.  They have admirable backbone and no tolerance for Russian nonsense.  As for Finland… good fucking luck there Putin!

  2. 2.

    Anonymous At Work

    Giving Geminid some props from the other thread with his “Black Sea Fleet meeting involuntarily adjourned” comment.  Just like the “Ukraine christened a new Russian submarine”.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    Yeah. It isn’t isolationist to aid one side’s destruction by not aiding their fight. “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” But it goes even further here, because they aren’t being neutral, much as some of them will claim they are. If you are not explicitly on the side of the oppressed, you have also chosen the side of the oppressor. I just want someone to ask them why they think it makes America great or strong to lie down like a dog at putin’s feet.

    I will never understand how so many people can have so little compassion for others.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  8. 8.

    Brit in Chicago

    @eversor: Not to mention NATO. Armed forces that are inferior to Ukraine’s taking on the whole of NATO? They wouldn’t know what hit them.

  10. 10.

    Dan B

    @Alison Rose: Right wingers believe that compassion is a weak and girly thing and can’t exist in a “doggie dog”* world.

    * dog eat dog as heard by the dense wingers.

  11. 11.

    Walker

    Related to this thread, I had some rough office hours today.  A student came by and asked for some help on the material.  When we talked about how she could study better, it came up that she is from Ukraine in the occupied territories (might be Khrestivka, unsure).  Entire family has been killed in the war and she is alone here in the US.  Completely unsure about what to do post graduation.

  15. 15.

    Walker

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks.  Right now, I am trying to make sure she succeeds in the class (this is a CS course that could obviously help career prospects).  But if the conversation naturally turns that way again, I will reach out.

  16. 16.

    eversor

    @Brit in Chicago:

    Kos of all people went over this in detail but Russia’s military is a shit show.  In the US the military is (mostly) run by the NCOs.  These are enlisted professionals who want to be there.  Usually with a decade or two of experience.  Our officers are largely the board room and stay the fuck out of NCO shit.

    This works, and it works well.  Russia does not have NCOs.  So it’s largely run by fresh out of the academy brats who know fuck all about fuck all and thus generals keep having to show up and get their heads shot off.  This does not work.  It ends in fail and bad.  Our system rewards competence over rank and allows people to take their own initiative rather than follow idiotic orders.  Russias is a mess.

    Then there is the grift aspect.   We have it as well but in the US it might cost a ton but the goods do show up, they do what’s on the tin, and that’s the grift.  Russias shit may or may not show up, doesn’t do what it should, and if it does it’s looted and sold off.  That Patriot Missile Systems are smacking down Russias vaunted hyper sonic missile system is comedic.  Given the state of what they have it’s no wonder people are starting to question if their nukes were maintained or if they are sitting on a bunch of duds or things that are going to nuke them!  Where we can be sure ours will still make the big boom boom bang.

    Then we can get into their aircraft carriers that are mothballed razor blade material or their super subs that have a hobby of blowing themselves up and killing all involved.  We pay a stupid amount of money for ours, but they work!  You do get what you pay for!  Also people who ask to fight are better in combat than random people you pressganged into the fight.

    Russia vs NATO would be one sided and a slaughter.

  19. 19.

    Citizen Alan

    I happened to find myself on Xitter this afternoon and saw that Code Pink was trending. Apparently, the Elderly Hippie-Tankie Brigade was getting arrested for camping out in front of Bernie’s door in the Senate Building because he wasn’t doing anything to cut off aid to Ukraine and “force everyone to the negotiating table.” Contemptible creatures.

  20. 20.

    Alison Rose

    @Citizen Alan:

    “force everyone to the negotiating table.”

    Well if they think it’s so easy, why don’t they do it themselves? Go have a little chitchat with putin and DEMAND that he negotiate in good faith. No problemo, right?

    They are and always have been idiots.

  21. 21.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Can I circle back to the “prepare to attack PRC” angle and ask who their crack dealer is?

    PRC has spent the last two years seeing how our hardware works in the field.  They’ve seen what Ukraine did right and what Russia did worst (did the orcs do anything right?).  And these people want to risk other people’s children’s lives?

  22. 22.

    jackmac

    @Chetan Murthy: The video reminds me of my visit to East Berlin in 1988. This DDR and East Bloc showcase was in better repair but still quite dour and — as a guide pointed out — bullet holes were still visible on some buildings even 43 years after the end of World War II.

  23. 23.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Alison Rose: The West Wing is the liberal version of a John Wayne western: a magical force makes horrible decisions into correct ones.  John Wayne had a white hat, which could justify shooting anyone.  West Wing had “good faith negotiations with an influential and moderate Republican.”

  24. 24.

    Anoniminous

    Russians are basically a bunch of dumb motherfuckers because of alcohol abuse. Russian women drink through their fertile years and during pregnancy. The results are what you’d expect.
    “Researchers have examined a sample of children living in Russian “Baby Homes” for features that are indicative of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). More than half of the Baby-Home residents were found to have intermediate (45%) or high (13%) phenotypic expression scores, consistent with a diagnosis of FASD.”
    Can’t run a modern army if a large plurality – or a majority – of your infantry don’t have basic life skills.​​​

    Cite: Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders in Children Residing in Russian Orphanages: A Phenotypic Survey

  26. 26.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    Since you’ve brought up logistics (and especially ordnance and ammunition), I’d like to provide a concrete example of changes in US equipment & ammunition production and supply since the end of the Cold War. (Much of this information comes from the Wikipedia article about the now closed Milan, TN Arsenal.*

    When I moved to Nashville in 1979, the Milan Arsenal (around 140 miles west of Nashville) was a going concern and a major employer in that part of the state.
    To quote from the article:

    Capabilities of the center included: load, assemble and pack ammunition; 40 mm cartridges; mortars and components; artillery projectiles; ignition cartridges; propelling charges; bursters; grenades; Tactical Missile System; demilitarization/disposal; renovation/reclamation; development and production test support; and logistical support.

    That’s not just a wide of things that go BOOM, but the weapons and systems that delivered them, as well as development of new things and testing work.
    With the end of the Cold War and the extensive cuts that followed in the 1990s and on into this century, in 2005 Milan picked up production work that had been done at other arsenals in Kansas and Texas. In 2009, this was moved Iowa, and ammunition production at the Milan Arsenal came to an end. Now the place has been closed altogether, and they’re trying figure out what else to do with 35 square miles of a (somewhat) remediated ordnance and ammunition production plant.
    So that’s three facilities closed in the past 18 years, with the types of ammunition they produced now handled by a single plant. I’m not saying that the plant in Iowa is inefficient or operated by incompetents, mind you, just that this is an example of why we aren’t able to turn out as much materiel as might be desired right now.

    *I realize that Wikipedia is just an encyclopedia—that is, its articles provide only an overview of basic information available in greater detail elsewhere. But if you don’t know much about where the military gets its ammunition and why we can’t supply Ukraine as lavishly as we (and they) would like, here’s part of the picture.

  27. 27.

    Righteous Hazard

    I usually read, but don’t post in these threads because I get too angry to think straight whenever I see what those putinist bastards are doing in Ukraine.

    But your observation that the GOP house caucus is going to try in the upcoming Ukraine assistance budget got me thinking. I am beginning to think of the GOP as a mass movement that has taken on Trump’s character.

    So the House GOP caucus just got humiliated. Like Trump does, they did it to themselves. But now, like the fucking weakass trumpist bullies that they are, they will react to humiliation by trying to hurt someone who cannot strike back. We saw this with the move to kick Pelosi out of her office. But they absolutely see Ukraine as people they can hurt without experiencing repercussions, so they are gonna try some bullshit.

    The only way to stop them is to make repercussions real for them. Vulnerable GOPers need to hear from constituents, and from all of us, that there will be a price to pay. This is the only thing that stops a bully.

  30. 30.

    eversor

    @Anoniminous:

    That’s only the half of it.

    It’s funny that we are all worried about fentanyl.  It’s a legit medication.  It has it’s uses.  I’ve had to be on it.  It’s an issue.  But there is a reason this exists and it’s damn good at what it does.  10/10 if had to had part of my large intenstine removed again would do fentanyl again.  Great stuff!

    Russians have Krokodil.  This is some crazy shit.  It’s made by boiling down opiod tablets in a toxic mixture that contains sulfer and then you inject it.  Cause you to form scales (hence the name), gangreen, and limbs rotting off.

  32. 32.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    I never go to the comments on these, but I have to say that Family Guy meme made my day.

  34. 34.

    Anoniminous

    @E.: ​
     
    I don’t think we can make that “presumably.” We know Russian women drink and binge drink during pregnancy. What we don’t know is how serious the problems are and since the Russian State doesn’t give a shit we can’t know because we don’t have the data.

  35. 35.

    NutmegAgain

    @Chetan Murthy: It’s all fancied up now, though. At least downtown, and in some neighborhoods, those derelict buildings have been redeveloped. Despite being in the east–and Saxony is unfortunately a hotbed of nastiness like AfD–Leipzig was for a while a hot business opportunity. My grandparents grew up and went to Uni there before WWI. I’ve just now been attempting to deal with family photos, and it was a beautiful city pre-1913.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anoniminous: I’m talking about people in the nat sec, defense, and foreign policy community inside the DC beltway. At think tanks, research institutes, GOP reps and senators and their nat sec advisors, some of the Democratic equivalents, people in US government agencies, etc.

  38. 38.

    Chetan Murthy

    @NutmegAgain:

    it was a beautiful city pre-1913.

    Yes, that’s what I was led to believe: one of the most affluent cities in Germany, before WWII.  And yeah, I 100% believe that Germany would have worked hard to fix all the damage: I visited West Germany in 1991 (Saarbrucken) and was very, very impressed with the infrastructure.

  39. 39.

    Michael Bersin

    …Balitsky, said that Russia’s goal is to occupy not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic countries, Poland and Finland. Because these states are “the historical lands of Russia”…

    And by that logic a next step is Alaska. Above 54°40′.

  40. 40.

    Gvg

    @Adam L Silverman: we all think that Russia has been propagandizing our Republican politicians and their more cult like followers for some decades. I have been puzzled by the forgetting of the past suspicion of Russia and the total paranoia about China. Now I am wondering if Russia didn’t cultivate that attitude also, thinking that they could use us to balance against China.

    It’s not that I think China doesn’t present some possible difficulties for us in the future, it’s just Russia though less powerful, is more delusional and right now, not maybe possibly if trends continue. Do you think Russia could have planted anti China propaganda starting years ago?

  48. 48.

    Carlo Graziani

    The first is that the majority of the GOP base has now fully adopted the pro-Putin, pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine, anti-American support to Ukraine position.

    For what it’s worth, I don’t believe that this characterization is correct.

    When we speak of the Republican “base”, we’re talking about voters, not elected officials, and we’re talking about the (largely racial) grievance-driven voters who span economic and educational and social classes, and who hate how the country has drifted away from their comfort zone since the epoch when Americans who looked and talked like them dominated and controlled politics, culture, sports, etc.

    None of these people give a shit about Ukraine, at least to the extent of thinking about the war 10% or more than they think about the NFL draft, or about their favorite Pop star, or about their next hairdresser appointment. But if you poll them about it, they will express opinions. Those have fluctuated, remaining largely supportive in the population at large, but subject to the whims of people who dedicate the kind of attention to such matters that one would expect from a fruit fly with a learning disorder.

    The Ukraine-defunding disorder is entirely driven by Trump, and by Republican politician’s fealty to him. Trump has his well-known corrupt grievances against Ukraine and corrupt sympathies for Russia. And Trump still commands the loyalty of the voter base, irrespective of what they “think” of the war. So Republican politicians, wishing to remain Republican politicians, strain every fiber of their beings not to piss off TFG. To the extent of not making waves when he requires of his clown cohort to mirror his own corrupt preferences by showing hostility towards support of Ukraine.

    This dynamic does not mean that hostility to Ukraine is growing as an important public attitude that politicians (to say nothing of the Administration) need to maneuver around. It is absolutely nothing like American public neutrality towards the war in Europe prior to 1941. That was a product of historic animus towards Britain, and of some German emigrant sympathy for Germany, bound together by a National ideology that proclaimed distaste for “foreign entanglements”—an absurd position for any US citizen today.

    What is happening now is an utterly superficial facsimile of that, a media-supported play based on a narrative that no voter really cares about, and that will change no votes in any election. It’s essentially ignorable at the “base” level.

  49. 49.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo,  I would hope you’re right,  but I kinda doubt it.  There’s a saying: “the Venn Diagram of people who believe in X and people who are  MAGAts is a circle” (for many GrOPer issues X).  it expresses the idea that at this point, all these many different issues that used to have different-but-somewhat-overlapping constituencies have all collapsed into a single issue.  It’s not “anti-abortion” or “pro-guns” or “anti-Ukraine” anymore.  It’s “MAGAt” and that’s all there is.

    Yes, for many people, they don’t actually care much about Ukraine (pro or con).  But they know that TFG cares, and for them, that’s enough: they care.  They know that leading GrOPers care, and (again) for them, that’s enough: they care.

    Yes, it’s not the same as in 1941, b/c back then, the methods of the Big Lie hadn’t been used on the American populace.  This time, they have been, and so the populace can be convinced to care about stuff that they’d otherwise ignore.  Just like in Nazi Germany — where Hitler started off with a somewhat-anti-Semitic populace, and was able to educate them to become sufficiently anti-Semitic to participate in committing [ETA] commit the Holocaust.

    You’ve got to be carefully taught.  The MAGAts have been and are being carefully taught.

  50. 50.

    wjca

    @Michael Bersin: And by that logic a next step is Alaska. Above 54°40′.

    To be followed, of course, by the northern California coast.  After all, when you have a geographic feature called the Russian River, you know it was Russian at some point.  Which, for Putin and his boys, is sufficient to make it rightfully Russian territory.

  51. 51.

    wjca

    @Carlo Graziani: When we speak of the Republican “base”, we’re talking about voters, not elected officials, and we’re talking about the (largely racial) grievance-driven voters who span economic and educational and social classes, and who hate how the country has drifted away from their comfort zone since the epoch when Americans who looked and talked like them dominated and controlled politics, culture, sports, etc.

    Perhaps that is part of why McCarthy didn’t want Zelenskyy addressing a Joint Session of Congress.  He looks too much like the Republican base’s view of themselves.  Fold in a dose of “defending our country’s borders”, and the pro-Russia sentiment might be at risk.

  54. 54.

    bjacques

    @Chetan Murthy: when I used to go to the big Goth pop festival there in the early 2000s, some friends in a band bought an entire house, street to attic, on one of the main boulevards on the edge of downtown for 45000 euros, and spent most of their non-touring time gutting and renovating it themselves. It’s old-style, with high ceilings that I love.

    Even then a lot of the town still needed some TLC. The university dorm was being torn down then to make way for the re-creation of the 700-year-old Paulinerkirche (University chapel), which had survived Allied bombing but not a grudge held by “Uncle” Walther Ulbricht, who had grown up there, so he ordered it blown up in 1968.

     

    Leibnitz was from there too, so between his appearance in Candide as Doctor Pangloss and his statue’s then location next to the Goth bar/restaurant/club Moritz-Bastei, Leipzig must therefore be the Happiest Place On Earth.

  55. 55.

    MisterDancer

    @Carlo Graziani: What is happening now is an utterly superficial facsimile of that, a media-supported play based on a narrative that no voter really cares about, and that will change no votes in any election.

    “The second time as farce”.

    Which, honestly, I feel like a lot of the current situation with Conservatism plays out as. I was just struggling yesterday to explain why some of how our politics feels like, and uses, the Jim Crow playbook but isn’t the same in key ways, as an example.

  56. 56.

    daveNYC

    @Carlo Graziani: Trump drives the base and the base drives the elected officials.  It’s now an article of faith for the base that Ukraine is bad, and I don’t see anyone or anything changing that anytime soon.

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