Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

He really is that stupid.

We still have time to mess this up!

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

We won’t go back.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The Israel-Hamas War of October 2023 Update

The Israel-Hamas War of October 2023 Update

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Just a bit of an update regarding the Israeli-Hamas war of October 2023.

Before we dig into the news, I want to briefly explain what I think are the key issues here:

The first is, as we delineated yesterday, that Bibi has allowed over 2/3rds of the IDFs units in the south to be redeployed to the West Bank because that’s where the convicted terrorist and mentee of Meir Kahane he’s empowered, put in his coalition, and made ministers – Ben Gvir (convicted terrorist) and Smotrich (Kahane’s mentee) – want them. They want them in the West Bank to protect the reactionary ultradevout/ultranationaist settlers from the consequences of their own bad behavior. This has left Israel wide open in the south and east, which is the opportunity that Hamas exploited yesterday.

The second is I do not know how anyone misses Hamas stockpiling over 2,000 missiles and then caching them in strategically important locations. Just a massive failure of Israeli’s intelligence and security services.

The third is that Hamas is as much a creation of Bibi’s as it is of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has been Bibi, at every turn since the early 90s, who has empowered Hamas as a foil he can both act tough against and a weapon he can deploy to diminish the Palestinian Authority and Fatah. He specifically does this so that he can claim that Fatah and the PA are too weak to be allowed to form a government for an independent Palestine and therefore not worth negotiating with while Hamas cannot be negotiated with. Heads Bibi wins, tails the Palestinians lose. Here’s video of Smotrich actually delineating this strategy back in 2015 before Bibi empowered him by bringing him into the coalition.

Machine translation of the tweet:

“Hamas is an asset” – this is how MK Bezalel Smotrich previously defined the terrorist organization, referring to the fight in the international arena \ #הארכיון_לא_שוכח : “On the international field, in the game of delegitimization – the Palestinian Authority is a burden and Hamas is an asset. Watch a segment from #אולפןפתוח , broadcast on #כנסת99 in October 2015

What is happening is as much the result of Bibi’s cynical strategies to manipulate and exploit the various Palestinian factions, as well as the US, to achieve his own objectives: A) never having to give up power, B) stealing everything that isn’t nailed down, C) never facing any consequences for any thing he does or any decision he makes.

The fourth is that everyone in Israel that is paying attention and has an IQ higher than my socks knows all what I’ve delineated in item 3. Even his coalition partners whom he has empowered because they will allow him to achieve his three real objectives while he makes it possible for them to create the Jewish herrenvolk illiberal managed Israeli democracy/theocracy they dream of. As such, no one trusts Bibi. Not his allies, not his partners, and not the opposition. But the opposition actually cares about Israel and Israelis. So Lapid and Gantz will continue to make overtures for a national unity government and if I have to guess, I expect Gantz will eventually take Bibi’s offer to join the current coalition, rather than shed the extremists and create a clean national unity government. If things go from bad to really worse, pressure will be on Lapid to do the same. Bibi has always depended on the good intentions of others. The reservists, especially all of those who have been protesting since April, will all either come when mobilized or volunteer and they’ll fight, but they also know that Bibi is already throwing them and their leadership under the bus. That started yesterday AM when Bibi’s networks on social media began framing this failure as “Hamas decided we were weak because the Reservists all boycotted Bibi who is just trying to keep Israelis and Jews safe.” Bot after bot after bot and then re-amplified by the trolls until it makes its way from the pro-Bibi astroturfed fringe into more mainstream channels.

I think that’s where we are.

Now that that’s out of the way, I’m going to start with a clarification on some of the grimmest information that was bouncing around yesterday. We now know the identity of the young woman killed by Hamas, stripped, and paraded around Gaza by Hamas fighters. She was not an Israeli Soldier, she was a dual German-Israeli national who had been abducted from a music festival for peace. Her name was Shani Louk.

The Wall Street Journal‘s Yarislov Trofimov makes an excellent point.

Circling back to what we I wrote above the fold, The Times of Israel goes right at Bibi for making Hamas into what it is today. (emphasis mine)

For years, the various governments led by Benjamin Netanyahu took an approach that divided power between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — bringing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to his knees while making moves that propped up the Hamas terror group.

The idea was to prevent Abbas — or anyone else in the Palestinian Authority’s West Bank government — from advancing toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Thus, amid this bid to impair Abbas, Hamas was upgraded from a mere terror group to an organization with which Israel held indirect negotiations via Egypt, and one that was allowed to receive infusions of cash from abroad.

Additionally, since 2014, Netanyahu-led governments have practically turned a blind eye to the incendiary balloons and rocket fire from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israel has allowed suitcases holding millions in Qatari cash to enter Gaza through its crossings since 2018, in order to maintain its fragile ceasefire with the Hamas rulers of the Strip.

Most of the time, Israeli policy was to treat the Palestinian Authority as a burden and Hamas as an asset. Far-right MK Bezalel Smotrich, now the finance minister in the hardline government and leader of the Religious Zionism party, said so himself in 2015.

According to various reports, Netanyahu made a similar point at a Likud faction meeting in early 2018, when he was quoted as saying that those who oppose a Palestinian state should support the transfer of funds to Gaza, because maintaining the separation between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza would prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

While Netanyahu does not make these kind of statements publicly or officially, his words are in line with the policy that he implemented.

The same messaging was repeated by right-wing commentators, who may have received briefings on the matter or talked to Likud higher-ups and understood the message.

Bolstered by this policy, Hamas grew stronger and stronger until Saturday, Israel’s “Pearl Harbor,” the bloodiest day in its history — when terrorists crossed the border, slaughtered hundreds of Israelis and kidnapped an unknown number under the cover of thousands of rockets fired at towns throughout the country’s south and center.

The country has known attacks and wars, but never on such a scale in a single morning.

One thing is clear: The concept of indirectly strengthening Hamas — while tolerating sporadic attacks and minor military operations every few years — went up in smoke Saturday.

Much more at the link!

Here’s the take from former Israeli Special Ambassador and Advisor to the late Shimon Perez:

Ambassador Novik also provides a list of warnings that were given to Bibi:

Machine translation:

For those who have forgotten, and for those who remember but give a hand to the spins, a partial list of the warnings of the security establishment and the disregard of the political echelon (= Netanyahu).

Here’s a machine translation of the list:

Gadi Eisenkot, 20.2.23: There are security threats that I don’t remember for years

Amos Harel 28.9.23: “The position that Ben Gvir received is immeasurably greater than his dimensions and abilities”

Amos Harel 11.4.23: “Against the background of the internal conflict, military intelligence estimates that the possibility has become stronger that a series of confrontations in the various arenas could, even unintentionally, flare up into an extensive, multi-arena war.”

Jackie Khoury 3.10.23: The Egyptian mediators in the talks to reduce tensions between Israel and Hamas warn that the continued pilgrimage of Jewish worshipers to the Temple Mount (Al-Aqsa) could lead to a security escalation.

Commissioner Kobi Shabtai 7.10.22: “What Rothman is doing on the Temple Mount is a provocation for the sake of which will lead us to Shomer Homat 2”.

Major General Yitzhak Barik 13.4.23: “Instead of preparing the public for the war that will come sooner or later, they put it to sleep.”

Major General Yitzhak Barik 13.4.2: “Ministers and members of Knesset are ignorant and peoples of countries regarding the real situation of the army”

The MM letter 16.8.23: “The last few months are a time of unprecedented emergency, in which Israel is rushing to the abyss, which is clearly expressed in the danger of war and an existential threat.”

The MM letter 16.8.23: The continuation of the coup d’état will result in a silent and fatal damage to the MM system, which the public will not know about, but which may take a huge toll that may manifest itself in the lives of thousands of Israelis and the security of the nation.

The PM’s letter 16.8.23: We know that the PM is well aware of the situation but decided to try to hide it from the public and the media.

7/24/2023 Netanyahu refused to meet the Chief of Staff for a security review before the vote on canceling the probable cause.

9/27/23 Chief of Staff Hertzi Halevi: It is permissible to criticize the IDF, but it is forbidden to criticize those wearing the uniform, who work for many years for the security of the country – this is irresponsible.

Alon Ben David 8/5/23: The coalition’s wild deployments of military personnel only accelerate the disintegration. We are approaching Yom Kippur 2023.

Alon Ben David 29.7.23: The Prime Minister was warned about the internal damage and how it erodes Israeli deterrence – and chose to ignore it.

Alon Ben David 7/22/23: Even if they stop now from the deliberate crushing of the army, the damage that Netanyahu and his government have already done to the IDF will take a decade to repair.

Yossi Yehoshua 6.8.23: The head of the Shin Bet warned Netanyahu: Jewish terrorism is fueling Palestinian terrorism. There is damage to infantry training due to the large number of IDF battalions in the territories.

MK Nissim Vettori: Regarding the fact that the Chief of Staff comes out and says that there is an injury to competence if the move continues – that sounds more like politics to me than the military.

Yossi Yehoshua 6.8.23: The backlash that the settlers of the hills receive from senior ministers and coalition members, who are busy attacking the commander of the Central Command with unbearable words – all this does not help the army and the security forces to control the chaos.”

Akunis vs. Netanyahu 7.10.23: Cabinet meeting: Akunis: “How can it be that the Chief of Defense and the Chief of Staff are not here? How come they don’t come to such a meeting?”
7/24/2023 Netanyahu refused to meet the Chief of Staff for a security review before the vote on canceling the probable cause.

And more details on why the IDF was understaffed in the Southern Command Area of Responsibility:

Machine translation:

As the evidence, photos and facts accumulate, it becomes clear that this is accurate: the Gaza Division was transferred to YOS. The strip was almost completely derelict. A commando raid on the scale of a brigade under our noses, knock down the formidable fence, jump over the obstacle that cost billions, and race in unimpeded. But the main thing is that the sukkah in Hvara is secure.
So what we found out today is that we don’t have enough power: either we mobilize all the ultra-Orthodox, until the last one, so that we can defend both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, or we draw other conclusions (and no, I don’t mean peace with Saudi Arabia).
All this, of course, after we topple the Hamas regime in Gaza, as we were promised in 2008 (because if we don’t do that, we have nothing to look for here).

The IDF is having trouble sealing the border openings:

Also, apparently, the equipment for the IDF’s reserves is missing. People are now trying to encourage donations!

Machine translation:

As we will see from the beginning of the morning, there is a shortage of equipment for reservists that may remind of the Second Lebanon. Hundreds of reservists complain of poor equipment, and ask for ceramic vests and helmets. The people of the New York protest, veterans of the Israel Defense Forces and the CBI Synagogue who received hundreds of requests, began a mass fundraiser in the US and Israel. As of yesterday, 75 thousand dollars were raised. The price of a helmet and vest kit costs $690 and a large amount is required to keep up with requests. In the following link there is an option to donate for life-saving equipment for fighters: https://t.co/qr5Bt0htH0

Machine translation:

At 14:00 a donation collection center will be opened in Hod Hasharon. In the meantime, hundreds of volunteers have built a logistics center here with an intelligence post at the entrance that directs everyone to the necessary activity. Everything is efficient, calm.
To the question of whether it is possible, the answer is yes.
You have to understand that we do it, the mayor does it, because the government didn’t take care of it.

Novik also hits the nail squarely on the head regarding the power imbalance between the Israelis and the Palestinians that fuels the anger that makes Hamas’s existence possible:

This imbalance can also be seen in the underlying architecture of a two state solution, if one were possible. The Israelis would be trading something tangible and physical – actual land – in exchange for peace. Peace is intangible. You can measure land, it’s easy to do. How do you measure peace? I’m a major proponent of a two state solution, despite there being no chance of it happening any time soon, but this has always been the key underlying problem with that policy. The power imbalance between the Israelis and the Palestinians is mirrored in the underlying conceptualization of what would have to be done to achieve a two state solution.

Hamas, of course, has achieved one of their primary objectives:

I expect the Israeli-Saudi normalization is now dead on arrival.

This is the cost of Bibi’s machiavellian manipulation:

Machine translation:

Uri Ravitz:
“This is my mother with the light blue shirt. She is 84 years old. She was kidnapped from her home in Nahal Oz by Hamas. This photo reached me an hour ago and is the first sign of life, or evidence of what is happening with her after more than 24 hours of not being able to get her. My brother, who was also besieged elsewhere in Nahal Oz, managed to get to her house after the soldiers came to free him and accompany him to a bus that evacuated the residents of Nahal Oz to a safer place. He found a house and a house that was broken into and turned upside down. Mother was not there. This photograph proves where she is. Up to this moment, no one or body is complicating the incident. Addressing us or giving us some address, briefing, relief, advice of one kind or another. The residents of the Gaza Strip continue even after the worst has happened! The omission was not caught.”

The campaign to throw everyone who opposes Bibi and the reactionary ultradevout/ultranationalist extremists in his coalition and their agendas under the bus has begun. Because where would we be if the state for Jews didn’t have a Dolchstoßlegende of its own.

Machine translation:

The whole issue of traitors from within and the pike – An inherent part of nationalist-populist thinking. It was expected to happen: it is right in their basic software. The assumption that the problem is internal, within the group, within the nation, of a fifth brother-in-law. If we just purify it, our problems will be solved. This is a failure to understand reality and an assumption that everything visible is just a symbol of a malicious story.

More on this from Yair Navot, the former Moscow correspondent for Israeli Public Radio and Yediot Ahronot:

Machine translation:

A black morning after a night with disturbed sleep, with the images of the kidnapped and terrified civilians being dragged through the Gaza Strip. The war, and the likely possibility that it will spread to the north as well, obviously requires putting all differences aside, and uniting. But the blood boils to hear these and other wretched whistleblowers, one by one scum, who spread conspiracy theories about the supposed “betrayal” of such and such who made the disaster that befell us possible. Israel is in pain, mourning, counting her dead but straining her waist and gnashing her teeth, getting ready for the next. And are they? Busy as usual with wild incitement and removing responsibility from themselves. So we only need to mention – there were warnings, there were those who understood that our enemies recognize the internal weakness due to the polarization and controversy surrounding the coup d’état. who recognize the damage to cohesion. Aman himself warned Prime Minister Netanyahu specifically, to no avail. This of course does not diminish the intensity of the intelligence failure, but it is important to note this in the face of wretched, poisonous and shameless conspirators.

And from the Spokesman for the IDF!

Machine translation for all three tweets:

Tweet 1:

There is no way in the world that the “betrayal” campaign of the last few hours is the result of the self-thought of individual people that happened to catch a wide circulation.

Someone came up with the idea and gave instructions to spread it. It’s not a trend on TikTok, it’s a timed and planned operation – like Hamas!

Tweet 2/Reply:

Or… be with me for a moment, commander: this is the mother of the father of the fathers of the failures ever and people really prefer to believe that Israeli citizens sold us to the enemy and not that the state of their country is so bad

Tweet 3/Reply to the reply:

This is my father, fathers and mothers of failures.
It will be talked about a lot, we won’t be the same again, I have no idea how to explain it (and you know I know the cut inside out).
And after everything is over, it is necessary to turn the army and the Shabbat on its head.
But it didn’t occur to me or anyone I know that the thought that someone cheated and somehow it appeared in a timely manner on the Internet…

And from a just activated Israeli reservist. Three tweet thread followed by the machine translations:

Hello, an anarchist with two arrests here. This is a picture of me waking up at seven in the morning in the APC, after lying down to put my head down at five in the morning…

I had a bit of time to go through Twitter and I came across all kinds of talk of treason, accusations of protest, spilling poison and what not.

So first things first, the spray of these people’s spit in my face reaches here.

Secondly, meet this leftist who left his wife with three daughters under the age of 3 and left the house without thinking.
Well, here we don’t check who demonstrated, who enacts basic laws as if it were a decoration committee and what everyone does at home.

Here mainly people from all over the country, of all species and shades mainly do everything to protect the country they are so

love
So yes, there are warriors and there are keyboard warriors. I know which side I prefer to be on.
Neither you nor a thousand like you will ever be able to understand it, or ever harm it.
Hoping for quieter and saner days.

 

This Israeli group is working to counter it, but they’ve got their work cut out for them. This is the first tweet in a thread exposing the accounts pushing this garbage.

Machine translation:

The disturbing conspiracy about “betrayal from within” that has been spreading since yesterday is spreading everywhere. We work around the clock to stop the spread of lies and refute them. This is a partial but central and important list of the main conspiracy propagandists. Be careful, distribute and report similar content to us.

They’re also debunking faked or repurposed as misinformation and agitprop video and imagery regarding the ongoing conflict:

Machine translation:

Please note: during these hours a video of children in a cage is being circulated and it is claimed that these are kidnapped Israeli children. This is an old video that was published at least four days ago – as you can see in the photo. There is no shortage of horrors on the internet, and child abuse is not acceptable at any time – but in this case it is a fake. Please stop sharing the video.

** The War in the South – Pike thread is being updated. Feel free to send us or tag **

Here is a fake that reached millions all over the world: the commander of the Gaza Division Major General Nimrod Aloni was not kidnapped. This is a citizen who was kidnapped.

Spread the word and help fight the lies.

Anschel Pfeffer wrote an excellent biography of Bibi, here’s his assessment. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The Yom Kippur concept was that the Arab armies wouldn’t risk another large-scale war with Israel after being badly beaten in the 6-Day War. That concept collapsed then and this time around 3 concepts have collapsed > 
Concept 1: Hamas is focused on building its stronghold in Gaza and won’t risk another war
Concept 2: Iron Dome, the massive border-fence, and the underground anti-tunnel sensors have denied Hamas most of its routes of attack > 
Concept 3: Israel can “shrink” the conflict with the Palestinians through economic incentives and render it a sideshow. The Palestinians are just a minor nuisance.
All three concepts collapsed 24 hours ago > 
Hamas also has a concept. It’s convinced that capturing dozens of Israeli hostages will bring Israeli society to its knees and force the government to release all Palestinian prisoners, making Hamas the top Palestinian movement, toppling Fatah. That concept will now be tested > 
There’s one key difference between Yom Kippur and now. This is not a war for Israel’s survival. It’s not facing invading armies. This means despite Hamas’ devastating opening move Israel can strategize its next move. Sadly Netanyahu’s government is incapable of strategic thought> 
one thought about Netanyahu. He’s not a war PM. He didn’t go to war against Hezbollah and Iran and in Gaza he was usually dragged-in. He doesn’t trust the “big” IDF, prefers air-power and special-forces and is averse to major ground offensives where the IDF can get bogged-down > 
Netanyahu tried to ignore Gaza over his many years in office. He never made plans for its future and after each round of fighting there rushed to get back to other matters. Now he will be forever remembered by Israelis for this disaster coming from Gaza. That is now his legacy. 

We will have to wait and see if Hezbullah is opening a second front in the north or whether they’re just adding a little more insult to injury.

Yair Navot has an interesting take on Russia’s responses:

Machine translation:

In Russia it was reported a short time ago that according to the order of the Federal Airports Authority of Russia, “starting at three o’clock in the morning Moscow time, restrictions on night flights from Russia to Israeli airports will come into effect until further notice due to the unstable military-political situation in the country.”

This is a strange message. In a slightly broader view – perhaps the relevant parties in Israel should examine whether Russia knows something that we are not in connection with the next moves of the enemy – Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, and I connect it to Russia’s very lukewarm response to this murderous massacre, which did not even condemn Hamas, and to the broader picture – the strategic alliance between Russia and Iran because of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones. Does this alliance also dictate Russian opposition to a possible historic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel? Such an agreement could have had negative consequences for the Russians, in part because it could have strengthened Saudi-Washington relations, and strengthened Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the US, and caused a drop in oil prices, in a way that would inevitably have harmed Russia’s ability to finance the continuation of its war in Ukraine . Is it possible that the Russians received some kind of warning from Tehran (and there is no doubt that an operation on today’s scale must receive Tehran’s approval) about what was about to happen? In this respect, the Russians and Iranians certainly have a common interest that a historic Saudi-Israeli agreement brokered by President Biden does not come to fruition. The war that started following the barbaric surprise attack by Hamas will certainly be a catalyst for the burying of the administration’s initiative regarding an Israeli-Saudi agreement. And beyond that – it is appropriate for Israel to start treating Moscow in the necessary manner. Russia today is a strategic partner of Tehran, and the security cooperation between them is deeper and wider than ever before – and endangers Israel. It is time to change the attitude.

Ukraine continues to step up despite Bibi not doing so:

I spoke with @Netanyahu
to affirm Ukraine’s solidarity with Israel, which suffers from a brazen large-scale attack, and to express condolences for the multiple victims.

The Prime Minister informed me of the current situation and the actions of Israel’s Defense Forces and law enforcement to repel the attack.

I noted the cooperation between the Israeli police and Ukrainian diplomats with regard to the safety and protection of Ukrainian citizens in Israel.

We also discussed the attack’s ramifications for the security situation in the region and beyond.

The Outlaw Jersey Whale has thoughts:

Biden’s appeasement of Israel’s enemies has invited this war against Israel. Appeasement anywhere never works. We must do whatever it takes to support the State of Israel in its time of grave danger, and we must end the scourge of Iran-backed terrorism. This terrorism is funded by Biden’s idiotic release of $6 billion to the Iranians. The Hamas war against Israel is now the second war started under Biden’s failed presidency, first by Russia in Ukraine and now by Hamas in Israel. Both could have been deterred by strong American leadership. Under my presidency, America will restore the deterrence Biden has foolishly given away.

And RNC Chair Ronna “Romney” McDaniel does too:

What the Republicans are planning to do is hammer that the Biden administration funded the Hamas attack by negotiating the successful release of US hostages being held by Iran in exchange for funds that Iran had deposited in a South Korean bank. Here’s JD Vance laying out the misinformation and agitprop they’re going to use:

 

Fox News – yes, you read that right – Jennifer Griffin actually has the details and the debunking! First two tweets from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The $6 billion was Iranian money for oil sales that was held in a South Korean bank, not U.S. taxpayer money. Under the Trump administration 4 banks worldwide were allowed to hold money from Iranian oil sales to 4 countries, including India, South Korea, and Turkey…. 
Under the Trump Admin deal that preceded Biden hostage deal, Iran could draw on that money for humanitarian purchases that had to be verified by the US Treasury. The money sat in a S Korean bank because it was held in South Korean won and no international banks would convert…. 
The money sat in a South Korean bank because it was held in South Korean won and no int’l banks would convert the won to dollars for fear of sanctions violations. This was NOT US taxpayer money. 

Here’s the Biden administration’s actual response:

Machine translation of both tweets. Quote tweet followed by quoted tweet:

Biden to Netanyahu: American aid to the IDF is on its way to Israel and additional aid will be sent in the coming days

Breaking: The Pentagon is expected to announce a military aid package to Israel today. All the details in my article on @WallaNews

https://news.walla.co.il/item/3614594

The US’s response will, however, be bedeviled by two problems.

The first is that Senator Rand Paul is blocking the nomination of the ambassador to Israel because of the Biden administration’s COVID response and Tony Fauci.

The second is a Biden administration own goal. We do not have a Special Envoy for Middle East Peace. President Biden never nominated one. My understanding is that the President and his team realized there was little chance of making any progress on an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, so given all the other things they had to deal with they just decided to not appoint someone. That’s fine until there’s a crisis. So right now the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Security Dialogue in the Middle East (OSD-SD) is not staffed. There’s no special envoy, there’s no senior advisors, no strategists, none of the personnel that would normally be appointed to be there. It is possible that a special advisor for Middle East peace was appointed for Secretary Austin, but if so I can’t find any information on that appointment. For full disclosure, part of my assignment as Senior Civilian Advisor to the Commanding General of US Army Europe in 2014 was funded through the special envoy’s office and I was assigned/detailed/OPCONed by OSD-SD to him. Personnel is policy. And right now we don’t have personnel.

That’s enough for today. We will have to wait and see how things proceed into the week.

Updated at 6:20 PM

We now have confirmation that Iran helped plan and authorized Hamas’s attack on Israel.

 

DUBAI—Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

U.S. officials say they haven’t seen evidence of Tehran’s involvement. In an interview with CNN that aired Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”

We don’t have any information at this time to corroborate this account,” said a U.S. official of the meetings.

A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members

Asked about the meetings, Mahmoud Mirdawi, a senior Hamas official, said the group planned the attacks on its own. “This is a Palestinian and Hamas decision,” he said.

The Iranian delegation at the United Nations in New York didn’t respond to a request for comment. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has praised the attacks, saying in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the “Zionist regime will be eradicated at the hands of the Palestinian people and the Resistance forces throughout the region.”

A direct Iranian role would take Tehran’s long-running conflict with Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the Middle East. Senior Israeli security officials have pledged to strike at Iran’s leadership if Tehran is found responsible for killing Israelis.

The IRGC’s broader plan is to create a multi-front threat that can strangle Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members and an Iranian official.

Here’s a caveat from Barak Ravid:

Machine translation:

Just because someone in Hamas said something to the Wall Street Journal doesn’t mean it’s true. I recommend being a bit reserved when reporting this and not presenting things as fact. At least as long as it doesn’t have verification from somewhere else. Everyone I asked in the last two days told me that direct Iranian involvement in the events is unknown

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

70Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    Why do I have a feeling they’re going to uncover that a memo entitled “Hamas Determined to Strike in Southern Israel” was circulated several months ago?

  2. 2.

    Villago Delenda Est

    As always, Adam, you shed light on something our MSM cannot do because they loves them some Bibi, just like they loves them some PAB.

  3. 3.

    Butch

    Sorry if my comment is dumb or obvious, but I don’t understand what Hamas has to gain with these attacks and I haven’t seen possible motivations discussed anywhere.  Hamas has to know that Israel is well armed and will retaliate fiercely.  So they are attacking to….Boost the price of oil?  Undermine the talks between Israel and the Saudis?  To show that they can do it?  Just out of hate?  I don’t get it.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Butch: Hamas wanted to derail the US backed Israeli-Saudi normalization of relations and diplomatic recognition. They appear to have done so. They also want to be able to trade the prisoners and hostages they’ve taken for their own people that are currently incarcerated in Israeli prisons.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’ve got to go eat something. Try not to open up a third front while I’m gone.

  8. 8.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Go figure: for 14 years @netanyahu leads a strategy of strengthening Hamas, weakening the PA (lest, God forbid, it proves a viable partner for negotiations). Suddenly he discovered that Hamas is a vicious terror organization. During each round of violence he has promised to>>

    So yet another conservative is shocked the face eating leopard ate his face.  What is wrong with those people? They must live in world of such utter bullshit they can’t even tell when someone is telling the truth.

  9. 9.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Adam L Silverman: Many have pointed out that Bibi sent units from the South to provide security for settler assholes who were stirring up trouble in the West Bank.

  11. 11.

    HumboldtBlue

    I am absolutely gobsmacked that Israeli intelligence and the IDF have been so broadly exposed, it almost makes one think they ignored intel for a reason.

    Israelis taking up contributions to provide for the IDF?

    Get the fuck outta here, that’s absurd.

    The right wing in both Israel and the US lying their asses off… well, yeah, that’s expected.

    Thanks so much for the background Adam, you do yeoman’s work, and it is deeply appreciated.

    @Baud:

    EXACTLY!

  12. 12.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Adam L Silverman: If we’re going to have to do two sets of war updates a day, I’m going to have to start charging everyone double.

    Quote from the bartender at Deep Space Station K-7 goes here.

  13. 13.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Butch: Something Adam was pointing out was how Hammas and Bibi enable each other; the IDF will now trash Gaza, doubtlessly killing many, and then Hammas can denounce the Palestinian Authority (the real enemy to Hammas) as squishy simps for Israel.

  14. 14.

    FelonyGovt

    Thank you, Adam. As always, a cogent and intelligent analysis of a complicated situation. As an American Jew who was raised in the 50’s and 60’s to love and admire Israel but has viewed their current-day actions with alarm and disapproval, I frankly didn’t know what to think about this.

  15. 15.

    Cacti

    Yeah, we definitely need a special peace envoy. Because we’ve done such a boffo job of promoting peace in the region since 1945. That’s why we have such enormous credibility in the region as a peace negotiator. 🙄

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    I do not know how anyone misses Hamas stockpiling over 2,000 missiles and then caching them in strategically important locations. Just a massive failure of Israeli’s intelligence and security services.

    It’s actually much worse than that. This was a highly-coordinated, widely-dispersed, amphibious and land assault. Such a thing cannot be pulled off without a huge amount of logistic preparation, planning, communication. Hamas units and their stores (weapons, ammo, food, water etc.) got into position across the strip, then all struck out simultanously. Plus, of course warming up those missile salvoes. All of this totally undetected.

    OK, their security is good, but nobody’s security is this good. Had the threat been taken seriously, Gaza would have been under a microscope, and there would have been warning signs, possibly subtle, but real, and significant to intelligence analysts.

    Someone redirected those assets to other targets, just as the IDF was redeployed to the West Bank.

  19. 19.

    Ivan X

    @Butch: I seriously do think that, in Hamas’ case, it’s just out of hate.

    That is not to diminish the Palestinians’ plight. But I view Hamas as part of that plight.

    ETA: Though I think Adam’s response to you has valid points, too.

  21. 21.

    Alison Rose

    @FelonyGovt: As a slightly younger American Jew, I feel you. The older generations in my family tend to always automatically side with Israel and never want to hear any criticism. But I know that some of that stems from memories of the Holocaust and from centuries of hatred. My mom isn’t as strident, and she hates the shit out of Bibi, although she does have a tendency to lump most Palestinians together as antisemites, when that’s obviously untrue. But at the same time…sometimes there is a sense among some people in this and other countries that like, antisemitism doesn’t exist anymore or something??? And the good old “criticism of Israel isn’t antisemitic!!!” thing. Sure. Plenty of it is not. But some of it is. Recognizing that doesn’t mean excusing away Israel’s horrible actions.

    Bleh. It’s such a mess.

  22. 22.

    New Deal democrat

    From the article today:

    Hamas also has a concept. It’s convinced that capturing dozens of Israeli hostages will bring Israeli society to its knees and force the government to release all Palestinian prisoners, making Hamas the top Palestinian movement, toppling Fatah. That concept will now be tested

    Yesterday I speculated that the taking of as many hostages as possible might be central to Hamas’s strategy. They can serve as ‘human shields’ against an Israeli invasion of Gaza, and ultimately as tokens to be traded for land or other gains.

    if I were a completely amoral terrorist strategically advising Hamas, I would recommend a very early demonstration of power by executing several hostages, perhaps young teenagers, in a particurly grisly manner after making them beg for their lives. I would be prepared for some absolutely horrific video on this order to come out in the next week.

  23. 23.

    bookworm1398

    On timing, is it a coincidence that the attack happened while IDF was redeploying to the north? Or was this part of the plan?

  25. 25.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cacti: The reason you want a special envoy and a fully staffed office around him right now is not to negotiate peace. Rather, by having the special envoy in place for the past two years that person and their staff would be able to leverage the contacts they’ve made and relationships they’ve established right now to aid in getting through the current crisis. Right now we have no ambassador to Israel. The Consul General, which was post the oldest American diplomatic post and the functional ambassador to the PA, was rolled into the ambassador to Israel’s position. That leaves us with the State Department special representative to the Palestinians. The reason this needed to be staffed properly was not because there was a peace process to work or a peace deal to be had, but because we need the bodies in place for when there’s a crisis. And there is always going to be a crisis!

  29. 29.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: Former Knesset Member Einat Wilf (@Einat Wilf) commented on the diversion of troops to the West Bank:

    “Abandon those who live within the borders of the State of Israel and its sovereign territory, those who are entitled to the protection of the state and its army for those who jump on hills outside the borders of the state. The lack of a clear border in the West Bank and the collection of delusional messiahs who are only trying to stretch the borders of the state are a disaster for Israel. We will have to establish a clear border and protect those within it.”

    This was machine translated from the original Hebrew.

    I think Wilf is talking in the last sentence about what she thinks must be done after this crisis is over, not immediately.

    Ms. Wilf has knowledge in this area. As a young woman, she served with Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo Accords. Wilf has written extensively since then on the dynamics of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, most recently in her book “The War of Return.”

  31. 31.

    Bill Arnold

    Adam, thank you. This is far better than anything in the media today.
    That long consolidated list from Nimrod Novik is good to see. That’ll shock some people when read concentrated like that.

  33. 33.

    grumbles

    Sort of a dumb detail, but it has been bugging me, what sort of rockets or missiles are these?

    In nearly every other conflict, they’re named. But these are always just called “rockets”. I’ve kind of assumed they’re not produced in modern factories because of that, and I assume if they were very powerful, fatalities would be higher. But you’e also not going to pull off an attack of this size and coordination with stuff your cousin the mechanic made.

    But what are they? Bigger than a science fair toy, smaller than a Scud?

  34. 34.

    db11

    Thanks Adam. Really appreciate your expertise and analysis in understanding the priors and drivers of the current crisis.

    Such a massive clusterfuck and so much horror and tragedy — hard to see any long-term outcome that isn’t objectively worse for all parties involved — not to mention the horrendous suffering in the near-term.

    That includes Netanyahu: I’m not so certain that Bibi will again evade any consequence, given the editorials today in both the Times and Haeretz pointing blame, and the broad prior disapproval in Israeli society of his recent actions and hostility towards the security establishment / IDF / Supreme Court.

  35. 35.

    azlib

    Oddly, it seems you and Brett Stephens of the NYT mostly agree. I’d be curious where you disagree.

    Destroying Hamas might be a tall order for the IDF. Urban warfare in Gaza would be a horror.

  37. 37.

    AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team

    Thank you for bringing the key context as you always do Adam.

  38. 38.

    Alison Rose

    @Butch: If you hit “reply” on a comment, you can then X out the reply box that pops up. Then hit reply on a second comment, and it’ll pop back up with both @names in the box. You can keep doing that until you have all of them, although I believe there is a limit to how many you can include without it getting tossed into moderation because of the links.

  39. 39.

    Dan B

    This is a clear description of what happens when leaders embrace extremists.  Even if their numbers are small they exercise their influence by the strength of their zeal.

  40. 40.

    gene108

    @Adam L Silverman:

    How much of a factor is Republican Senate opposition, to what seems like every Biden nominee to any position requiring Senate confirmation, to the lack of Israel and Middle East diplomatic presence?

    Seems like anything below a Cabinet Secretary, in the Executive Branch, will be short staffed for the foreseeable future because of Republicans putting a hold on Democratic nominees and the lack of qualified people on the Republican side.

  41. 41.

    Mousebumples

    As much as I wish your expertise wasn’t needed, Adam, I appreciate you taking the time to share these important posts. Much appreciated.

  42. 42.

    surfk9

    Thanks for the post Adam. There is a clarity which I am not finding in the MSM. Such an ugly situation.

  45. 45.

    Adam L Silverman

    @gene108: I don’t recall if the special envoy requires Senate confirmation. The senior appointees that normally work for the special envoy do not.

  46. 46.

    Nettoyeur

    Years ago, I reconnected with a fellow MIT alumnus for dinner at a conference. An IDF veteran, who served with Bibi’s brother who was killed at Entebbe, and knew the entire Netanyahu family. He said that Bibi (who also studied at MIT) is brilliant, but…..”if I introduced you to him and you then talked together for 15 min, you would come back and tell me that he is a total asshole.” Given Bibi’s prominent public profile, I was taken aback. But my friend assured me…the rest of the Netanyahu family are wonderful, but Bibi…

  49. 49.

    JPL

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t have a subscription and I don’t plan to, so can you cite their sources?   It might be time for Biden to point to Putin since he’s their ally.   Ukraine still needs funding, the gop has to be called out for their love of Putin.

  50. 50.

    karen marie

    I’m surprised there’s no mention of George W. Bush in all this.  He was an early investor in Bibi’s plan to sideline the Palestinian Authority and give Hamas power.  I’m seeing lots of articles about what happened after the 2005 Palestinian election but I’ve got a pretty clear memory of watching Bush push for Hamas against the Palestinian Authority in the runup.  It was another case of the dog catching the car.

    The story begins in June 2002*, when Bush in a White House speech pressed for the Palestinians to “to elect new leaders” and “build a practicing democracy”***. Bush was initially determined to promote an alternative to Yasir Arafat, but after Arafat died, he continued to urge elections as part of the administration’s plan to build Arab democracies.** In February 2005, Mahmoud Abbas won an election to succeed Arafat as president of the Palestinian Authority, and at Bush’s urging, agreed to hold elections for a legislative council, which were scheduled for August and then postponed until January 2006. Israel was worried about Hamas’s participation, but in a meeting with Abbas in Washington in October, Bush, who was confident that Fatah would win the elections, did not raise the possibility of banning Hamas candidates.

    *This is where the author chooses the story to begin.
    **Fact not in evidence. What plan?
    ***What the fuck was the plan? (There was no plan.)

    The Israelis would be trading something tangible and physical – actual land – in exchange for peace.

    Land they stole.

    And they continue to steal land and destroy property.

    There are no innocent Israelis. They have built their entire country on theft and murder. Cry harder.

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: Made me look…

    I looked through the on-line 2000 version of the Plum Book.  There wasn’t a “middle east” envoy listed.  There was one for Syria and for anti-semitism and a few other things – none of them require Senate confirmation.

    There’s a bill for a super-coordinator that would require Senate confirmation:

    “The Abraham Accords and related normalization agreements are fundamentally transforming the Middle East and have the potential to grow to Africa, the Indo-Pacific, and beyond. It is in the United States’ interest to expand the circle of friends with Israel,” said Ranking Member Risch. “Leadership matters. This legislation rightly creates a special envoy, subject to the advice and consent of the Senate, charged with strengthening and expanding the Accords. We must not only grow the Accords, but also ensure these agreements reap tangible security and economic benefits. I hope my Senate colleagues will join me in quickly moving this legislation.”

    I imagine that legislation isn’t going anywhere anytime soon…

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    MomSense

    I was remembering the outcry when Jimmy Carter published Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid. How much suffering could have been avoided if we had Ch used a different path.
    I remember talking with someone who was part of negotiations sponsored by Harvard’s Negotiation Project (Roger Fisher’s outfit).  She said as long as Israel identifies only as victim and not also oppressor – there will never be peace.

  54. 54.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Maybe, maybe not. Hama’s say’s it all them.

    If it is an IRGC plan, one would expect that Hezbollah and other groups, would have/ will pile on.

    And WFT is an “European Official who is an Advisor to Assad?” Spy, Traitor?

  55. 55.

    cain

    I’ve had a bee in my bonnet about Hamas since day 1 – because I know they are a group with an absolute rigid code.

    They should have taken the original deals back during Rabin and then used that as a way to incrementally get their freedom rather than this nonsense. A lot of innocent families are both sides are going to lose their lives.

    Adam’s observation of the whole thing between Bibi and Hamas  really seals the deal about why a peace process can only work by getting rid of right wing forces on both sides.

  56. 56.

    cain

    Somewhere some asshole posted that pic of kids inc cages and I lost my shit. Especially in the context of somehow we helped support this when literally during Trump’s tenure we were putting kids in cages with our tax dollars!

    FUCK THEM.

    You see that shit, you show the kids in cages (and maybe they still are) that our tax dollars paid for. If this is a moral quandary for Israeli kids to be in cages, what about these other kids? Then tell them to go fuck themselves.

  58. 58.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: The Trump administration had one. So did the Obama administration. I technically worked for the Obama administration special envoy. It may be that it was removed from the Plum Book because of the legislation related to the Abraham Accords.

  59. 59.

    Adam L Silverman

    @JPL: From the excerpt I quoted above:

    according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

    A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members

    I also updated the update with the following from Barak Ravid:

    Just because someone in Hamas said something to the Wall Street Journal doesn’t mean it’s true. I recommend being a bit reserved when reporting this and not presenting things as fact. At least as long as it doesn’t have verification from somewhere else. Everyone I asked in the last two days told me that direct Iranian involvement in the events is unknown

  60. 60.

    Adam L Silverman

    @cain: I wrote a paper while in grad school in 2007 about how the violent religious extremists on both sides functioned like spoilers. I eventually reworked it as a strategic assessment when I was assigned to work on this stuff at US Army Europe back in 2104.

  61. 61.

    Another Scott

    There’s a new long story at TheDrive.com – The War Zone with lots of video and other updates.

    Some things I haven’t caught before:

    1) Foreigners were kidnapped – possibly including Americans. (My speculation – This may have been part of the reason why the Gerald Ford carrier was moved to the area so quickly.)

    2) There are serious concerns about Hezbollah getting involved because they have “massive” amounts of modern arms and could overwhelm Israel’s air defense. (My speculation – This may be why Bibi is immediately asking for more money from the US for Iron Dome air defense missiles.)

    I don’t know how much of the story is scare-mongering, but the situation could quickly get much worse.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  62. 62.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you for the comprehensive update! For my selfish curiosity, I hope you add a daily update for the Israel-Hamas War. For your physical & mental wellbeing, I hope you do not.

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    This was a highly-coordinated, widely-dispersed, amphibious and land assault.

    Air too, via hang gliders. Operationally, the planning & execution by Hamas is quire impressive, as is combat against the IDF & police. Actual conduct against Israeli civilians has been predictably reprehensible.

  64. 64.

    YY_Sima Qian

    One of the civilians kidnapped by Hamas from the peace concert in the Negev desert is a young mixed Israeli-Chinese women (Israeli father & Chinese mother, born in China). The Chinese community in Israel is contacting the Chines embassy in Tel Aviv to push Hamas to release the person. As the young woman is most likely an Israeli citizen, I doubt the Chinese embassy will do much.

  65. 65.

    tobie

    @MomSense: Funny…I can easily imagine someone saying that as long as the Palestinians regard themselves exclusively as victims who have no agency and have progressives excusing every act of violence they commit as caused, there can be no peace. There’s lots of blame to go around. It would be nice to have a more nuanced discussion of responsibility and causality in this conflict.

    Leaving Montreal today, I happened to pass by a pro-Palestinian protest. Yes, they chanted, “Palestine, Palestine will be free from the river to the sea.” Speakers earnestly intoned that what Hamas does is merely resistance and thus fully justified. I found this pretty disturbing given the events of the past 2 days.

  66. 66.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: The drones and whatever amphibious elements that were employed made for a more confusing attack, but the second most amount of damage has been done by the rocket barrages.

    By far the most damage has been inflicted by a few hundred light infantry. This was like a large, well-planned and well-armed jailbreak. In this case though, the convicts control the prison and have mostly returned to it after a bloody two day rampage, bringing back with them an unknown number of their own captives.

  67. 67.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: According to a recent Times of Israel report, Israeli officials say Hamas took over 100 prisoners, and Hamas says it has some 130 captives. Foreign nationals include people from the US, England France, Germany , Nepal and Thailand.

    Evidently there are around 5,000 Thai nationals working on southern Israeli farms, and Hamas says it has 11 of them. Two more are confirmed killed . There were 49 Nepalese agriculture students in what sounds like work-study programs; Hamas holds some of them also.

  68. 68.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    By far the most damage has been inflicted by a few hundred light infantry. This was like a large, well-planned and well-armed jailbreak. In this case though, the convicts control the prison and have mostly returned to it after a bloody two day rampage, bringing back with them an unknown number of their own captives.

    That’s an apt way of putting it. Clearly shows that the Israeli “concepts” Anshel Pferrer referred to were unsustainable & indeed delusional. I think the Israeli establishment (not just Bibi & his extremist coalitionists) are still under a similar delusion that the situation in the West Bank is sustainable, or vis-a-vis Hezbollah & by extension Iran.

    Credible deterrence is a central component to any Israeli strategy for national survival, but deterrence alone is not a strategy.

  70. 70.

    Kosh III

    IIRC  When Hamas won the 2006 election-which was open and fair, Israel and Bush rejected Hamas and connived to push Hamas out of the West Bank.

    Almost 2 billion barrels of oil are off shore of Gaza but Israel blocks Gaza from obtaining and selling the oil.
    IIRC

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