(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note. I’ve just updated the Israel-Hamas war post from earlier with the reporting from The Wall Street Journal that Iran, specifically the IRGC, helped plan and approved Hamas’s attack followed by Barak Ravid’s warning that until/unless there is additional sourcing, that this is just Hamas spreading RUMINT.
Kyiv now! Solidarity with people of Israel!!! pic.twitter.com/09XFhPwLzf
— Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman (@RabbiUkraine) October 8, 2023
A lot of Israeli flags can be now seen across Kyiv shining on billboards, including the Khreschatyk Street
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 8, 2023
💥Zelensky says two Ukrainian citizens have been killed in Israel pic.twitter.com/nQdkt7XRT7
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 8, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Next week, we will work together with our partners for the unity of the world in countering terror – address by the President of Ukraine
8 October 2023 – 21:26
Dear Ukrainians!
Today I spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. I extended my condolences over the numerous casualties caused by the terrorist attack. The Prime Minister informed me about the current situation and the actions of the Israeli defense and security forces.
There is all the necessary cooperation between the Ukrainian Embassy and the Israeli police to find out the details about Ukrainians who found themselves in the areas of hostilities and shelling. Unfortunately, the deaths of two Ukrainian citizens have been confirmed. My condolences to the families and friends.
The Embassy of Ukraine in Israel, all our diplomats who are in charge of this region, together with the intelligence service, are working around the clock to help all our people who need help. The Embassy has already received more than a hundred appeals from our citizens. The whereabouts of five of our people in southern Israel have been established.
I once again address all Ukrainian citizens in Israel: please be careful and follow the instructions of the local security forces.
It is very important that the whole world – the whole of it – does not stand aside from what has happened now and responds in the most principled way possible.
Many people were shocked by the audacity of the terrorist attack. The audacity and thorough preparation. If terrorists can afford it, it means they are a threat not just to one country. And next week we will work together with our partners to ensure the unity of the world in the fight against terror. Various international events have already been planned. As always, the Ukrainian position will be in favor of unity and joint action.
Terror has opened too many fronts against humanity. The war against Ukraine. The war in the Middle East. Terrible destabilization in Africa. Constant attempts to provoke a crisis in the world food market.
Being strong in such conditions means standing up to terror. It is not enough to be a great country. It is not enough to be a rich country. It is not enough to have ambitions. To be strong is to help protect people and lives from all forms of terror. And that is exactly what it is. To help. To help.
And today, this evening, I want to thank our people who save lives, who do everything to make terror lose…
Zaporizhzhia region. Captain of the Civil Protection Service Anatoliy Beznos, emergency medical aid feldsher Yuliia Belyba, police Captain Serhiy Khokholiak. Thank you!
Kherson region. Major of the Civil Protection Service Volodymyr Serhan, Sergeant of the Civil Protection Service Mykola Silin, police Major Oleksandr Skorniak, and emergency medical aid feldsher Vitaliy Rudakov. Thank you!
Kharkiv region. Master Sergeant of the Civil Protection Service Serhiy Osyka, Chief Master Sergeant of the Civil Protection Service Oleksandr Nazarko, and feldsher Yana Fesenko. Thank you! And thanks to all the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, the National Police, our ambulance and every doctor and nurse who prove that terror cannot defeat life!
And, of course, our unbreakable warriors. Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions… 58th separate motorized infantry brigade, 79th separate air assault brigade, 44th separate artillery brigade. Well done, warriors! I thank you for your fortitude and destruction of the occupier!
As well as the brigades that have made progress in our offensive. Our “Eightieth” air assault brigade, 24th separate mechanized brigade and 93rd Kholodnyi Yar separate mechanized brigade – thank you!
Glory to all who fight and work for our country! Glory to our strong people, the people of Ukraine!
And thank you to everyone who helps to overcome terror!
Glory to Ukraine!
The BBC’s Shayan Sardarizadeh is doing yeoman’s work debunking misinformation and agitprop on his Twitter feed. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Thread: You may have seen viral posts that Olena Zelenska, President Zelensky's wife, spent $1.1m on Cartier jewellery during the couple's recent visit to the US.
Let's find out why those posts are false, and examine how pro-Kremlin disinformation of this kind travels online. pic.twitter.com/81h5zSk7Rn
— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) October 6, 2023
The claim first appeared in a 30 September YouTube video by an obscure channel.In a series of Instagram stories, a woman claims to be a former Cartier employee, who was apparently sacked because Zelenska didn’t like her. She then unveils a $1.1m receipt in Zelenska’s name.
The alleged former Cartier employee’s Instagram appears to be “.jeanette”.Head over to Instagram and you’ll see the account has no posts, no followers, and no following. That should immediately make you suspicious. gorgeous.bb
Now let’s examine the receipt, which is likely doctored. It’s dated 22 September at Cartier’s Fifth Avenue store in New York.Zelenska couldn’t possibly have bought jewellery in New York on 22 September, because she’d landed in Canada on the 21st and spent the 22nd in Ottawa.
That alleged employee video then becomes the source for a story on the Nigerian website The Nation, which has been widely shared by pro-Kremlin users.Apart from the issues with the video and receipt, the Nation’s story, as pointed out by @DavidPuente, is a sponsored post.
You’d have thought if Zelenska had been spotted at Cartier on New York’s Fifth Avenue, we’d have seen images or videos of it posted somewhere, or that US outlets would have got the story ahead of a Nigerian website, a dormant Instagram account and an obscure YouTube channel.Despite clear evidence that the story is false, it’s gone viral on Telegram, Twitter, TikTok and other platforms.Some tweets with the claim have now got Community Notes, but I wonder how many of those who saw the initial claim on major platforms now know that it’s false.
He’s also debunking similar types of posts regarding the Israel-Hamas war.
Khortytsia:
Minister @rustem_umerov:
Work in the regions with a team.
I listened to the Commander of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, about the work, managing the actions of units within the OCG, as well as the operational situation at the… pic.twitter.com/LyGzFeyzc2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 8, 2023
Minister @rustem_umerov:
Work in the regions with a team.
I listened to the Commander of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, about the work, managing the actions of units within the OCG, as well as the operational situation at the front in the area of responsibility of the OCG, the composition of the enemy’s forces and means, and the directions of probable actions.
I visited combat brigades, talked with defenders of the eastern direction, namely: 24th Mechanized Brigade named after of King Danylo, 92nd Assault Brigade “Ivan Sirko”, 93rd Mechanized Brigade “Kholodnyi Yar”, 80th Air Assault Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade.
Presented awards to our defenders, personally thanked everyone who protects the peace of our people every day.
Thank you for superhuman strength, stability and loyalty to Ukraine. Together we are stronger, together we will win.
Glory to Ukraine.
And here’s some video of the 93rd in training:
The 93rd Mechanized Brigade’s combat training. pic.twitter.com/ESf7CduMs0
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 8, 2023
Verbove-Ocehertuvate-Novoprokopivka:
First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Update on the Verbove-Oceheretuvate-Novoprokopivka area: A comparative analysis of satellite images from October 5th and September 28th shows a shift in the location of the fires, primarily towards the east of Novoprokopivka and to the south of Verbove. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/XeQ6YLorrS
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 8, 2023
2/ Based on satellite imagery, there are clear indications of fires and shelling in isolated areas near Ocheretuvate. However, the overall situation hasn’t seen significant changes over the past week, exhibiting slower dynamics compared to the previous weeks in September.3/ Another noteworthy change is the considerable decrease in visible artillery shelling. This reduction can be interpreted in several ways, such as a shift in tactics and approach, potential shortages of ammunition, or a decrease in the intensity and frequency of assaults.4/ This aligns with prior reports from Ukrainian officials who have emphasized the necessity of constantly advancing with smaller groups, gradually pushing the enemy back. It appears that the primary focus continues to be on wearing down the enemy’s forces and capabilities.5/ If you find this thread useful, I kindly request you to like, follow, and share the first message in the thread.
These materials are accessible thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee. This support enables me to acquire and share imagery with you
Novoprokopivka:
47th Brigade reported about the destruction of 4 Russian tanks in one day near Novoprokopivka, Melitopol direction. pic.twitter.com/GBW6zIx7Cr
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 8, 2023
Kherson:
Spectacular pursuit of a Ukrainian FPV drone after a Russian BTR in the Kherson region. By the Security Service of Ukraine and 126th territorial defense brigade https://t.co/lgi23jwDFF pic.twitter.com/LShd70Jx4X
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 8, 2023
Lyman, Luhansk Oblast:
The battle with another Russian T-90M and its subsequent destruction. Destroyed by a ATGM system of the 66th brigade of Ukraine. Lyman direction, Luhansk region.https://t.co/isTj8kOevR pic.twitter.com/whnvwguVf4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 8, 2023
/2. One frame of the video captured incoming projectile (thin white line) pic.twitter.com/ewC3PKwWtP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 8, 2023
Verbove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
As said, Russian 2S19 Msta-S 152.4 mm self-propelled howitzer targeted by the Ukrainian AHS Krab 155 mm self-propelled howitzer. Near Verbove, Zaporizhzhia regionhttps://t.co/6xRZFL3knF pic.twitter.com/DXNnVjuXuk
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 8, 2023
Russia:
I was monitoring my usual Russian channels all day yesterday, I think the sentiment towards Israel ranges between negative and neutral, but it is never positive.
The negative sentiment comes from the usual suspects: imperialists, fascists, and of course, Wagnerites. These folks…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 8, 2023
I was monitoring my usual Russian channels all day yesterday, I think the sentiment towards Israel ranges between negative and neutral, but it is never positive.
The negative sentiment comes from the usual suspects: imperialists, fascists, and of course, Wagnerites. These folks would like Israel to go down, and they’re being open about it, even though they may not directly sympathise with the Palestinians.
A more neutral position can be observed among those who are more closely aligned with the authorities such as official propagandists and military correspondents.
But they all recognise that this situation benefits their effort in trying to conquer Ukraine.
And all of them will be pushing fakes about Ukraine (as always) being somehow involved in providing armament to Hamas along with other bullsh!t. Be careful when browsing!
Former Yediot Ahronot and Israeli Public Radio Moscow correspondent Yair Navot has this interesting assessment of what he thinks is going on with Russia vis a vis the Hamas attack against Israel:
ברוסיה דווח לפני זמן קצר שע״פ הוראת רשות שדות התעופה הפדראלית של רוסיה, ״החל מהשעה שלוש בבוקר שעון מוסקבה ייכנסו לתוקף הגבלות על טיסות לילה מרוסיה לנמלי תעופה ישראליים עד להודעה חדשה בשל המצב הצבאי-פוליטי הלא יציב במדינה״.
זו הודעה מוזרה. במבט מעט רחב יותר -כדאי אולי לגורמים…
— Yair Navot – יאיר נבות (@Navot_Yair) October 7, 2023
Machine translation:
In Russia it was reported a short time ago that according to the order of the Federal Airports Authority of Russia, “starting at three o’clock in the morning Moscow time, restrictions on night flights from Russia to Israeli airports will come into effect until further notice due to the unstable military-political situation in the country.”
This is a strange message. In a slightly broader view – perhaps the relevant parties in Israel should examine whether Russia knows something that we are not in connection with the next moves of the enemy – Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, and I connect it to Russia’s very lukewarm response to this murderous massacre, which did not even condemn Hamas, and to the broader picture – the strategic alliance between Russia and Iran because of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones. Does this alliance also dictate Russian opposition to a possible historic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel? Such an agreement could have had negative consequences for the Russians, in part because it could have strengthened Saudi-Washington relations, and strengthened Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the US, and caused a drop in oil prices, in a way that would inevitably have harmed Russia’s ability to finance the continuation of its war in Ukraine . Is it possible that the Russians received some kind of warning from Tehran (and there is no doubt that an operation on today’s scale must receive Tehran’s approval) about what was about to happen? In this respect, the Russians and Iranians certainly have a common interest that a historic Saudi-Israeli agreement brokered by President Biden does not come to fruition. The war that started following the barbaric surprise attack by Hamas will certainly be a catalyst for the burying of the administration’s initiative regarding an Israeli-Saudi agreement. And beyond that – it is appropriate for Israel to start treating Moscow in the necessary manner. Russia today is a strategic partner of Tehran, and the security cooperation between them is deeper and wider than ever before – and endangers Israel. It is time to change the attitude.
– Western lack of resolve in helping Ukraine repel Russia's large-scale invasion has become an encouraging signal for other aggressive regimes worldwide.
– Western deliberation and excessive tentativeness in helping Ukraine inflict a decisive defeat upon Russia have prompted the…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 8, 2023
– Western lack of resolve in helping Ukraine repel Russia’s large-scale invasion has become an encouraging signal for other aggressive regimes worldwide.
– Western deliberation and excessive tentativeness in helping Ukraine inflict a decisive defeat upon Russia have prompted the Kremlin to seek (and receive) aid from fellow rogue regimes like Iran and North Korea.
– Rogue regimes like Iran are not only seeing a way to go now that the West appears to be weak and indecisive, but they also get considerable amounts of valuable resources from Russia — which is ready to pay all the money in the world and share any secrets (including the bomb technologies) to save itself from its unsuccessful war in Ukraine.
– Proxies of aggressive regimes, enemies of modern humanity and progress, begin using their yet another chance and pour out in the streets, senselessly butchering entire families on cameras.
This is the way things shatter around the small world of our time.
Particularly because so many good people are not ready to do what’s right or are not resolute enough to go all the way.
The evil unpunished always returns even stronger.
This is why supporting our “rule-based international order” is so important instead of putting heads in the sand and cowardly appeasing aggressors.
Because you will not like the world without “rules” from which some bored Twitter contrarians get their eyes rolled up.
Ponomarenko’s analysis is important. It is important because the following readout of Secretary Austin’s call with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant shows what the US can do and how fast it can do it when it is motivated to respond to a crisis. (emphasis mine)
RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant
Oct. 8, 2023Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:
Today Secretary Austin spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Gallant to express support for the people of Israel and to receive updates on Israel’s operation to restore security and safety from Hamas’ terrorist attack.
The Secretary reaffirmed the unwavering support of the United States for Israel’s right to defend itself and provided updates on U.S. actions in response, including his direction to move the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG60), and the Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) into the Eastern Mediterranean in proximity to Israel. Secretary Austin underscored these steps were taken to strengthen the U.S. military posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts.
He also shared with Minister Gallant that the United States is sending additional equipment and resources, including munitions, to arrive in Israel in the coming days.
Both leaders agreed to remain in close contact in the days and weeks ahead.
Before someone decides to yell at me in the comments that the US has a bilateral security/defense agreement with Israel, but not with Ukraine: I know!
The following is what I wrote on 29 JAN 2022 that the US needed to do ASAP, and in fact should have already done:
And this is why I think we are still moving far too slowly and are far too late in placing the necessary assets in place to back up our diplomacy and our use of economic power to try to deter Putin. Right now Putin is getting what he wants: bilateral recognition and negotiation with the US. Putin believes Russia is still a great power the way the Soviet Union was during the Cold War. Being able to negotiate with the US, publicly demand written answers – as if formal diplomatic communication would be done some other way – and then receive them because that’s simply how diplomacy is done allows Putin to claim that victory. In order to deter him, he has to be shown that we have the will and the capability to respond. Deploying some Operational Detachments Alpha and putting the equivalent of a brigade combat team and a half on standby is not going to cut it.
In order to actually demonstrate that we have the will and the capability to respond we would need to mobilize and deploy V Corps and all of 1st Armored Division (all combat brigades and the division artillery), plussed up with one brigade combat team each from 4th Infantry Division, 101st Airborne Division/Air Assault, the 82 Airborne Division, and the 1st Stryker Regiment. This should be accompanied by a country team from the 853rd Civil Affairs Brigade with a full complement of Civil Affairs Teams Alpha (CAT-As) and a country team from the 4th Psychological Operations Group’s 6th Psychological Operations Battalion to place Tactical PSYOP Teams (TPTs) into theater. I’d put the Corps headquarters in Poland, the Division headquarters in either Finland or Estonia, and distribute the conventional forces throughout Poland, Eastonia, Latvia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The Special Operations assets – Civil Affairs and PSYOP – go into Kyiv. Then I’d put the Wasp and Kearsarge Amphibious Warfare Groups (AWG) into theater. Wasp and her float off of Finland and Kearsarge and her float in the Black Sea. I’d keep the carrier group farther out for now. In fact I’d put it in the Irish Sea and even more specifically in the “Irish Box” between Ireland and England. I’d also want Air Force Special Operations – Air Commandos and Para-Rescue, as well as forward observer controllers who paint targets – moved into theater. I’d also want our NATO allies to keep doing what they’re doing, put moving three or four Dutch F-16s to Poland isn’t sufficient either.
Just so that everyone else knows, and courtesy of Leto, the forward observer controllers are formally referred to as Tactical Air Controllers (TACs) and a group of them are known as a Tactical Air Control Party (TACP).
There are three reasons for the suggestions I made last night and that I’ve copied and pasted above. The first is the strategist’s and policy maker’s dilemma: how much risk is one willing to assume. Right now every time something seems to bring some clarity to what Putin may be doing or might be planning to do something else then brings a new layer of obscurity to the situation. This means that President Biden and his team, as well as NATO’s leadership, the leadership of our EU partners and allies, and of our non-NATO European partners and allies have to determine how much risk they want to assume given that things are not particularly clear. Rotating an appropriate amount of military capability into the theater provides us with the ability to manage and mitigate the potential risk arising from Putin’s actions. They give us the ability to have a warm start should that unfortunately be necessary. I was assigned, under temporary assigned control (TACON), to the US Army Europe Commanding General in 2014. I was at his headquarters in January 2014 when the signals began to become clear that Putin was going to invade Ukraine. And, as a result, I know what it is like when the theater army commanding general does not have enough capability to be able to undertake his contingency plan to respond should it become necessary to do so.
Let me just take a moment and anticipate a rebuttal to this. Specifically that I’m letting my experience from 2014 color my judgement now. This is a legitimate question. I don’t think it is happening though. Our military footprint in the EU is not what it was even a decade ago despite some rotating, short term deployments to Poland. Given that we’ve steadily drawn down our military presence in the EU and relocated back to the US, temporarily relocating a force large enough to allow us to credibly respond if necessary would make sense in terms of mitigating and managing risk.
The second reason that I think we should do an increase way beyond just placing 8,500 personnel on standby is to reassure our allies. Sweden and Finland, which are not NATO allies, but do have security partnerships with the US, as well as Norway, which is a NATO member, are all exceedingly concerned regarding Putin’s actions. So are our NATO allies Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The Swedes have sent military personnel to reinforce Gotland because senior Russian military and civilian officials, as well as state controlled Russian media have been agitating to try to take it. Never mind that the last time non-Swedes tried this it got their stångas kicked. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania see themselves as the frontline of conflict if Putin decides to probe for mush and, along with Poland, have moved towards a war footing just to be ready.
The need to reassure our allies is just as important as the need to deter our potential adversaries. It is especially important in order to further rebuild the trust that was eroded during the Trump administration when Trump would never miss an opportunity to denigrate our alliances, crap all over our allies, and suck up to the leaders of hostile powers and potential peer competitors. Usually all at the same time. Remember, Trump, as he was scheming to bring his autogolpe to successful fruition also ordered Acting Secretary of Defense Miller to pull all of our military personnel out of Germany by the end of January 2021. It is understandable if you had forgotten this. I can assure you that our allies and partners certainly have not forgotten. Reassurance, like deterrence, also helps to manage and mitigate risk.
The third and final reason I made the suggestion is that a lot of people are throwing around that what President Biden and his team are proposing is to small a response, but they rarely put down specifics. Some of this is because the people making the criticisms are just criticizing in order to criticize. Some just don’t have the expertise and experience to name specific elements in specific amounts. I am not criticizing just to criticize. I have either worked on or closely followed this problem set since January 2014. I have spent a lot of time thinking about what might be necessary, in terms of troop deployments, to give us a successful warm start if Putin decided he really wanted to challenge the US and NATO. I’m not just making lists to make lists.
For instance, there’s a reason I’ve got Civil Affairs built into this. Specifically because they’ve been working, albeit slowly due to a variety of constraints, to reconstitute their historic mission from World War II: military support to government. And the reason I named this specific Civil Affairs brigade is that among its leadership is the colonel that did the vast, vast majority of the concept development to bring this important and historic capability back. No one knows it better. And I know this because I was the subject matter expert assigned to assist him by his commanding officer at the time. This wasn’t just: I’ll throw some CA bubbas in so they’re not left out. The same thing with the PSYOP teams. Yes, as I’ve indicated several times, I’ve done work with the Army PSYOP community over the years, but given that Russian military doctrine is to never begin kinetic operations until the theater has been prepared through psychological and information operations, it would make sense to put the tactical PSYOPers where they can do the most good. I will suggest, with a day’s worth of reflection, that they should go to Estonia, which has worked very hard to build an effective counter-PSYOP capability.
We can fairly quickly lay on an extended war game with our NATO and non-NATO allies, similar to what the Russians are doing with the Belarusians, and conduct the deployment within that dynamic. But, regardless, having the capabilities in place to respond if necessary is always better than not having them when you need them.
We didn’t do any of that for the Ukrainians or for our European and NATO allies. And, frankly, we still haven’t. We’ve been dribbling out support and aid to Ukraine. Just enough to keep them competitive, but not enough for them to win quickly. The Biden administration is still working under the false assumption that they are somehow going to get the largest aid package for Ukraine through the GOP controlled House. Proceeding as if Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine is some sort of isolated regional war, rather than the larger kinetic element in decade old world war, has done no one any favors. Not the Ukrainians, not our EU or NATO allies, and not, ultimately ourselves.
The US’s response to Israel, and, again, I’m aware we have a bilateral security agreement with Israel, but not with Ukraine, demonstrates that when we want to move with speed we can. It further demonstrates to Putin that his strategy of playing for time is working. Which will further encourage him in regard to his genocidal Special Military Operation against Ukraine, as well as his irredentism and hostility to his other neighbors.
Ukraine is being shown that they are ultimately on their own. Putin has been and continues to take notice.
That’s enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
First, some Patron adjacent material.
Now: 8 lives!
This cat was very lucky to escape the Ukrainian strike against a Russian stationary target. pic.twitter.com/uh3TLMdted
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 8, 2023
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns :)))
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
I see where Zelensky called Netanyahu earlier today to express his support. My memory’s not so good, but I’m trying to recall when Netanyahu called Zelensky to express his support.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Never. The answer is never.
Betty
I have to believe the slow walking of US arms support for Ukraine is based on the fear of Russia falling apart and nukes getting loose if Putin and his cohorts suffer the total loss they deserve. In the meantime, there is so much needless suffering and destruction.
Alison Rose
I can’t blame a cat for being russian so I feel bad for that cat and hope it is okay.
Thank you for the debunk of the Cartier shit. It’s so laughably obviously fake, and yet idiots out there who WANT to believe the worst about Ukraine, and Zelenskyy and his wife in particular, will lap it up without giving it one second of examination. I mean, as noted in the post, if she’d really gone on froufrou shopping spree, we would have heard about it immediately and from much more trusted sources. And considering their country is being decimated and Olena in particular has to spend every waking moment fearing for her husband’s life, I seriously doubt diamonds are something she gives a single fuck about right now.
Yep. And as is the traditional American way, we as a nation will never ever ever accept responsibility for our part in what his taking notice leads to.
Our Ukrainian speakers can confirm if this caption is correct, and I hope it is, because this little girl is a badass.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Nukular Biskits
Thanks for the updates, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: That girl’s words are translated correctly.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I absolutely hate that young children like her are having to live through this, and that kind of resilience and strength is both impressive and heartbreaking. I don’t think I’d have the same.
Adam L Silverman
@Betty: This article is a good delineation and analysis of the Biden administration’s approach.
The abstract:
West of the Rockies
So Iran is supplying arms to Russia and aiding Hamas. I wish we could assist their people in successful uprising.
trucmat
I’m struggling to see how the attacks in Israel ultimately help Russia. Already we see reports that close Russian ally Iran is involved. POTUS and Congress should be able to sell a package of military aid to Ukraine and Israel as an appropriate response to continued Russian and Iranian aggression. Americans already despise Iran. We should be using that more strongly to denounce and fight Russia.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the pointer. It’s a dense, but interesting read.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cacti
I wonder how Brazil and India are feeling right about now on the decision to let Iran into BRICS.
Lyrebird
Seems sickening to even imagine thinking this way about mass murder of civilians, but given how quickly we saw disinformation like “prisoner release deal funded Hamas”, it sure seems that some Trumpists want to make hay out of the attack. And RU wants Trump back in power.
DKos recently ran an AP story on Pres. Jimmy Carter’s life, noting that he’d been criticized over the Iran hostage deal back then, without a single mention of the Iran-Contra stuff and the recent confirmation that Reagan promoters had put those hostages at further risk and everything just to help Reagan get elected.
Martin
@trucmat: Because Putin has control of the House, by having enough useful idiots there who will willingly absorb his propaganda. In the end this will become a choice for the US among that group – support Israel or Ukraine – with Israel being the more deserving option. Even a coward can support Israel coming out on top of this one, but it takes courage to support Ukraine, and those members have none. So long as Putin can steer that small minority in the House, he has a good chance to cutting off Ukraine aid, and given that it’s all too easy to sell short term budget gains over long term geopolitical ones to the US, it’s not even a very hard thing to do.
I think the key here is going to be McConnell who aggressively wants Ukraine aid to help Democrats get both aid packages through. But with no Speaker, and no House leadership, I don’t think anyone knows if that’s possible.
Say what you will about Hamas – they too read the landscape pretty well. Shame we have enough members of Congress who cannot.
trucmat
@Lyrebird:
The Republicans are thrashing wildly as usual but I don’t think their up is down act will be sufficient this time. Macabre yes but it’s important to really push hard on stamping Russia here with the sins of Iran and Hamas against Israel.
With the new reality of the Hamas-Israel ‘war’ hopes of dialing down tensions with Iran are gone for now. It’s against recent practice but the Democrats should pile on with tying Iran to the atrocities. Talking to the media don’t say ‘Iran’ without saying ‘Russia’ in the same sentence. Don’t talk about defending Israel without linking it to Ukraine. That’s a sales pitch I see working amongst regular Americans. IMO FWIW.
Lyrebird
@Lyrebird: ETA: my comment should have included this:
“This is more like a footnote than an explanation:”
YY_Sima Qian
One of the enduring ironies of Putin’s (re-)invasion of Ukraine is that the debacle has so weakened Russia’s hand that it has lost much of its strategic autonomy, & instead is forced to be hitched to the priorities of partners that it desperately needs, even though their interests overlap but do not perfectly align.
Lyrebird
Here’s hoping.
Does my memory deceive me, or has the Orange Menace been shouting about the Middle East quite recently? Trying to make the Biden Admin (which certainly may be making missteps in this whole sh_tshow) look bad compared to his champion grifter son in law?
I share your hope that the MAGA promoters in Congress fail in catapulting their propaganda this time around. I also hope that certain defendants do not get a pass for sharing top secret info like it’s candy. Republicans have scaremongered so successfully about Iran for so long, and at the same time done things to reduce our knowledge… (Plame, anyone?)
Trucmat
@Martin:
All good points. I’d disagree that Putin controls the House though. Right now it’s a vacuum. It’s undoubtedly difficult, perhaps impossible, but this attack provides another lever to pry loose a few Biden district Republicans and perhaps get a more reasonable Speaker elected. If not a speaker then at least a package to carry Ukraine and Israel into 2025. Congressional Democrats are going to be united in support for Israel and Ukraine. It’s the Republicans that are divided on Ukraine and our joint enemy Russia. Use that wedge and keep using it.
Martin
@Trucmat: The House is controlled by about 8 people right now, so long as rank and file GOPs refuse to work with Democrats over those 8. As long as it remains in that state, Putin just needs to get those 8 to buy into his propaganda and he controls the House.
cain
@West of the Rockies: The Iranian govt is very busy – supplying every asshole with weapons, but also working hard at being assholes to their own people.
They are cashing checks that hopefully is going to bounce and then the FO of the FAFO comes into play.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
Is there any sort of geopolitical explanation of why (e.g the involvement of both Russia and Israel in Syria, where I’ll admit I don’t have a clue about), or is it just Binni being the generally horrible person he is?
Telkom University
What is President Zelenskyy’s response to Hamas’ attacks on Israel?