Connections are being made between Bibi’s cozying up to Putin, Putin’s reliance on Iranian weaponry, Iran’s state sponsorship of Hamas, and Hamas’s attack on Israel.
Here is Israeli journalist Amit Segal’s assessment of the connections:
אני חושד שההיסטוריה תזכור את המלחמה הזו, בין היתר, כעוד זירה עולמית של העימות בין ציר המערב-אוקראינה ובין ציר הרשע רוסיה-איראן.
לא מבין בזה הרבה אבל לדעתי אחרי הודעות הרשע הרוסיות זה הזמן לעשות מעשה ולהתייצב רשמית וסופית לצד אוקראינה שעומדת לצידנו עכשיו. זה גם צודק וגם חכם.
— עמית סגל Amit Segal (@amit_segal) October 9, 2023
I suspect that history will remember this war, among other things, as another global scene of the conflict between the West-Ukraine axis and the Russia-Iran axis of evil. I don’t understand much about it, but in my opinion, after the evil Russian announcements, it’s time to take action and officially and definitively stand by Ukraine, which stands by us now. It is both right and wise.
While it is unclear which Russian remarks Segal is referring to, here’s Putin’s most recent statement, which, of course, blames the US for the attacks:
Putin finally makes his first comments on the Israel-Palestine war.
He says it's "a clear example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East" for not "taking the core interests of the Palestinian people into account" and working to create an independent Palestinian state. pic.twitter.com/oJQjs6ax0I
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 10, 2023
And here is how Bibi ran for reelection:
💥This is how Netanyahu ran for reelection. https://t.co/shvDts0XIv pic.twitter.com/fxE2F6WLbl
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 10, 2023
So Putin just plainly conned Netanyahu.
The tactics of staying neutral regarding Ukraine in exchange for Russian deterrence of Iran and its proxies in the region have failed miserably.
It's now Russia that depends on Tehran – the dirty magic of Putin’s failure in Ukraine.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 10, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Strategic relations between Ukraine and Romania are a new force for the entire Black Sea region – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10 October 2023 – 20:48
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A really good visit to Romania. A fruitful one.
Meetings with President Iohannis, the heads of the chambers of the Romanian parliament, MPs, and the Prime Minister of Romania.
What have we achieved?
First, there are good agreements on weapons. I can’t disclose everything now, but shells – affirmative, bolstering air defense – affirmative. We are still preparing some things. They will be powerful. A training center for F-16 pilots is being set up in Romania, and Ukrainian pilots will be among the first to be trained.
Secondly, we stated that we are moving to the level of strategic partnership.
There is a very clear meaning behind this political wording. As President Iohannis told me, we can rely on Romania. Romania can definitely rely on Ukraine.
Together, we will significantly strengthen our region. We are already making a critical contribution to global food security through cooperation in the Danube ports and in the western part of the Black Sea. There will be more cooperation.
We are expanding our transport corridors, there will be more jobs and economic opportunities. Today we signed a joint statement of the presidents that outlines our plans for the future.
Third, we will soon open a new railroad line through Moldova, which will become a new transport corridor.
Together with Moldova, we are moving towards the start of negotiations on EU membership – with Romania’s full support. I am grateful for this.
The majority in the Romanian parliament supports us.
The Romanian government – in the coming weeks, we are preparing a joint meeting of Ukrainian and Romanian government officials.
I am grateful to Mr. President Iohannis, the entire Romanian political class and society.
Our strategic relations are a new force for the entire Black Sea region.
If we succeed in implementing everything we have planned now and which our teams will be working on, this part of Europe will get a new source of economic and security development.
Thank you to everyone who supports us! It is good that today we managed to bolster our defense!
Glory to Ukraine!
Ukraine’s anti-corruption efforts are moving forward:
Zelensky signed the Ukrainian parliament's amended law on the restoration of public access to electronic asset declarations of government officials, which are to be made available immediately. The e-system, suspended in Feb '22, is an anticorruption tool. https://t.co/T6pPqZgOZu https://t.co/ramdNJyOqu
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 10, 2023
The cost:
We always remember the price we pay for our independence.
Eternal memory to the heroes who gave their lives for Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/O9thdKiAK6
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 10, 2023
Germany:
I’m grateful to Germany for today’s large military aid package. Patriot, IRIS-T, Gepard, tanks, armored vehicles, and other items. As winter approaches, this is exactly the support we need and the one we discussed with @Bundeskanzler in Granada. Our agreements are working 🇺🇦🇩🇪
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 10, 2023
Thank you for strong support of 🇺🇦 Air Defence before winter. https://t.co/xjLbfuKOs0
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 10, 2023
In den nächsten Wochen treffen weitere 10 Kampfpanzer #Leopard1 A5, 15 geschützte Transport- und knapp 20 geschützte Sanitätsfahrzeuge in der #Ukraine ein. Weitere Informationen finden Sie in der Pressemitteilung auf der BMVg-Website. 2/2
— Verteidigungsministerium (@BMVg_Bundeswehr) October 10, 2023
Germany is putting together a second winter package for the #Ukraine : To protect critical infrastructure and for further support 🇩🇪 is supplying additional #Luftverteidigung with #Patriot , #IRIS -T SLM & SLS worth around EUR 1 billion as well as three anti-aircraft gun tanks Cheetah. 1/2
In the next few weeks, another 10 main battle tanks #Leopard1 A5, 15 protected transport vehicles and almost 20 protected medical vehicles will arrive in #Ukraine . Further information can be found in the press release on the BMVg website. 2/2
Let's make sure not to miss the fact that 🇩🇪Germany is sending us an AWESOME defense aid package:
– another PATRIOT system (a command and control unit, a radar, 8 launchers, over 60 missiles).
– new IRIS-T systems, medium- and short-range.
– 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
– 3 Gepard…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 10, 2023
Let’s make sure not to miss the fact that 🇩🇪Germany is sending us an AWESOME defense aid package:
– another PATRIOT system (a command and control unit, a radar, 8 launchers, over 60 missiles).
– new IRIS-T systems, medium- and short-range.
– 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
– 3 Gepard systems.
– Transport and medical vehicles.A total of nearly 1 billion euros.
We’re preparing to live out another winter under Russian missiles.
Odesa & Mykolaiv:
Defenders of the sky destroy russian attack drones over Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
Tonight, Ukrainian Air Forces destroyed 27/36 «Shahed-131/136». pic.twitter.com/4GO3tP23ho
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 10, 2023
Bakhmut:
The Bakhmut area pic.twitter.com/g2tOH2Nv9Y
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 10, 2023
Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast:
2/ To illustrate this, I selected a military facility used by russian forces in Dovzhansk, located in the rear area of Luhansk Oblast. At first glance, it may not present itself as a military installation due to the presence of numerous civilian vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ZzokzUqSul
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 10, 2023
4/ Further examination shows that the facility is approximately 150 meters from the railroad station, facilitating swift logistical operations. What's more, it is situated a mere 300 meters away from a residential area, presenting a significant safety concern for local residents. pic.twitter.com/vnYhuH2lrL
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 10, 2023
6/ Regrettably, this is not an isolated case, but rather a pervasive strategy used by russian forces in Ukraine since 2014. They often blend active civilian facilities with military ones, either to evade targeting or to exploit civilian casualties for propaganda purposes.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 10, 2023
8/ I kindly ask you to like and share the initial message in this thread. The 'Frontelligence Insight' project will release a significant update next week, so don't forget to follow.
These materials and imagery are available thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 10, 2023
Avdiivka:
Just to be clear the Ukrainian General Staff hasn’t accepted any territorial losses, and stated that all occupier attacks on Avdiivka were repelled.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 10, 2023
So the Rascists might be using the situation with Israel in their favour. According to reports by both Russians and Ukrainians, they began offensive operations in a number of areas today, including Avdiivka, which was preempted by large-scale artillery shelling. We shall see if anything comes out of it. Today is a good today to once again show your support for Ukrainians.
Difficult to say how much truth is in his words, but Oleg Tsaryov (traitor, former Ukrainian politician) says the operation to cut off Avdiivka was being prepared for a long time and it is a serious attempt to displace Ukrainians who have been there for a long time. Avdiivka is…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 10, 2023
Difficult to say how much truth is in his words, but Oleg Tsaryov (traitor, former Ukrainian politician) says the operation to cut off Avdiivka was being prepared for a long time and it is a serious attempt to displace Ukrainians who have been there for a long time. Avdiivka is right next to Donetsk and is causing a lot of problems for the occupiers. So far, they haven’t been able to move the Ukrainians.
He also says the operation caught Ukrainians off guard but Ukrainians denied this.
Another video from the Avdiivka direction. Accumulation of Russian infantry and equipment. At the end of the video, an ATGM strikes one of the Russian infantry fighting vehicles in this convoy. https://t.co/dF1a323CZl pic.twitter.com/nLng9jMaKw
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 10, 2023
DO NOT DO THIS!!
Russians demonstrate an advanced method of reloading a Grad MLRS pic.twitter.com/QqYWzW9KIj
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 10, 2023
Microsoft and Bellingcat debunk some Russian agitprop:
A fake BBC video claiming a Bellingcat investigation shows Ukraine smuggled weapons to Hamas is being pushed by Russian social media users. It's unclear if this is a Russian government disinformation campaign or a grassroots effort, but it's 100% fakehttps://t.co/9bSZg24kgq pic.twitter.com/s4Tn0Ra8pa
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) October 10, 2023
Russian info ops launching a fake @BBC /@bellingcat video today, complete with BBC graphics/video style claiming majority of HAMAS equipment from Ukraine. It's fake and just another in a long line of spoofed Western news reports. Shared again by Sheikh Tamar acct. pic.twitter.com/17CTJwQXTB
— Markian Kuzmowycz 🌻 (@markiank) October 10, 2023
The video may have been seeded earlier than I previously indicated. pic.twitter.com/n2vffzNqIP
— Markian Kuzmowycz 🌻 (@markiank) October 10, 2023
so far just here and one or two isolated reposts on TT. This TG acct has exhibited tendency to be very quick to the punch on CIB. t[.]me/sheyhtamir1974/58755 pic.twitter.com/P04TjnaguV
— Markian Kuzmowycz 🌻 (@markiank) October 10, 2023
Better get that brand enforcement team on speed dial, might not be the last time.
— Markian Kuzmowycz 🌻 (@markiank) October 10, 2023
A fake video posted in pro-Kremlin circles with BBC branding and logo is falsely claiming that BBC News and @bellingcat are reporting that the Ukrainian government has provided weapons to Hamas.
The video is 100% fake. Neither BBC News nor Bellingcat have reported that. pic.twitter.com/bQdeBW3LPp
— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) October 10, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
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Open thread!
japa21
Regarding the BBC and Bellingcat info, this disinformation/propaganda campaign really doesn’t do much. (I at least hope it doesn’t.) The people that will fall for it are already against Ukraine. Everybody else will recognize it for what it is.
And yes, I expect some MOC (MTG) will probably spout the lies.
Or am I just too naive?
West of the Rockies
Many thanks for these incredibly informative, cogent posts, Adam.
Mediaite has a concerning article about the response of some BLM chapters to events in Israel.
Jay
Thank you again, Adam.
Jay
@japa21:
a bunch of the Disinfo is not aimed always at The West.
Yes, it will have a effect and will echo in echo chambers for years to come.
Suzanne
I had to reread this a few times. Fuck.
Exposes Putin as weak.
CarolPW
@West of the Rockies:
Probably better phrased as some people in some chapters. Same with the University group stupidities – some people in some clubs. For all we know it could have been just one officer, or just a couple of people.
Villago Delenda Est
Shall we say, 33 odd years later, that “The End of History” was called a bit prematurely?
Villago Delenda Est
@CarolPW: The better phrasing is not as good as clickbait.
Jay
@Suzanne:
it exposes Netanyahu far more,……..
jonas
@Suzanne: I’m sure Putin also assured Netanyahu that he would keep Syria and Hezbollah on a short leash as well. This will go great.
West of the Rockies
@CarolPW:
Sure. I was trying to avoid a sweeping statement. Idiots are to be found pretty much anywhere that enough humans gather.
Cacti
All of the tragic events unfolding show that Netanyahu was a lot less clever than he imagined himself, both in his dealings with Hamas and with Russia.
oldster
@West of the Rockies:
“Idiots are to be found pretty much anywhere that enough humans gather.”
This is a vicious attempt to erase the lived existence of us standoffish idiots who don’t like crowds. I’m offended.
In fact, I’m going to start a chapter of IGTOW (Idiots Going Their Own Way).
No one else is allowed to join my chapter.
wjca
That video of Russians “reloading” a Grad MLRS was just stunning. How massively ignorant of guns (of any size!) do you have to be to hammer shells into a barrel that way? (I wonder if anyone got a video of the explosion when they tried to fire those hammered in shells….)
Suzanne
@Villago Delenda Est: LAWL. I saw a great meme just, like, last week…. it was the Batman-slapping-Robin meme, only it was Francis Fukuyama getting slapped.
CarolPW
@West of the Rockies: It is concerning that there always seems to be efforts to set Black and Jewish populations against each other, obviously a benefit to the GOP. Same thing keeps happening to other solid Dem groups, like Black vs. LGBTQIA+ and either against Hispanic/Latino populations.
Jay
thread,
https://nitter.net/P_Kallioniemi/status/1711724819551498444#m
Jay
@wjca:
rockets, not shells,
they are electronically fired, and based on the amount they were oversized, they are not launching anywhere,
the warheads probably won’t detonate, and will probably just burn up in the tubes, where the rocket bodies and warheads will have to be carefully cut away, to get them out, if the tube isn’t damaged by the heat.
But GRAD tubes are just simple steel pipes, so cheap to discard or repair.
Baud
@CarolPW:
They’re always trying to fracture our coalition. Even among white liberals, they try to get more progressive folks to find the broader coalition impure and distasteful.
MisterDancer
@Jay: Thanks for that — some things I’m going to do further digging on. I did generate a ThreadReader version as well: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711724819551498444.html
Mr. Bemused Senior
[In the voice of Eccles] Aloooo.
Matt McIrvin
Okay, so the Republicans say this was Biden’s fault because Biden was coddling Hamas, but the Republicans’ buddy Putin says it was Biden’s fault because Biden was coddling Israel. Just keeping it all straight.
Mr. Bemused Senior
[but seriously…]
The parallels between Trump and Netanyahu are eerie. Trying to stay out of jail, backed by crazies, admiring Putin, glorifying violence, …
Ugh.
Villago Delenda Est
@oldster: Groucho’s rule of clubs applies?
Villago Delenda Est
@Matt McIrvin: That’s pretty much the storyline, right there.
oldster
@Villago Delenda Est:
Reverse Groucho’s rule: as an Idiot Going My Own Way, I won’t join any club that lets other people in.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
That long-term pollution is a big downside (for those who don’t consider it an upside) of flood-the-zone propaganda, “The Russian ‘Firehose of Falsehood’ Propaganda Model” (2016, RAND Corporation, Christopher Paul, Miriam Matthews)
E.g. as an example of long-lived echo chamber narratives, one often hears recycled Bircher-era disinformation. And there are even elderly people with firsthand memories still spreading it.
bookworm1398
I’m worried by how I’m personally finding it harder to judge if some news report is true. And I put more effort into it than the average person. And it’s not just breaking news where you expect confusion. Sometimes I will try to google something from ten years ago to see if I remember correctly and I can’t find anything clear.
Anyway, disinformation doesn’t have to be believed just to create confusion. Make people say, it’s impossible to tell what’s really going on. Say – Ukraine may or may not be in the right here, I’m not sure.
YY_Sima Qian
I am not sure I would take at face value take any Ukrainian analysis suggesting that Russia & Iran have coalesced into an axis that is coordinating their actions against their common enemies. After witnessing how quickly the U.S. has responded to the assault on Israel, it is understandable why Ukrainians would want to more tightly link Ukraine’s cause w/ Israel’s, & more tightly link Ukraine’s enemy w/ Israel’s. (Although Israel’s cause & actions in its conflict w/ the Palestinians are far more compromised). That does not mean Russia is as of yet closely coordinating w/ Iran in the Middle East, outside of Syria, or that Russia’s enemies are ipso facto Iran’s & vice versa. That also does not mean it could not develop into a closer alliance later, but I don’t see it just yet. Furthermore, Hamas has not quite been the Iranian proxy that Hezbollah has been (though that also does not mean it can’t evolve into one as its existence is under threat from the Israeli assault).
Russian disinformation will certainly try to link Ukraine to Hamas, for similar though far more cynical reasons, even though it is transparently preposterous.
Bill Arnold
@bookworm1398:
There is a serious need for a media metadata ecosystem, that classifies media bias and reliability at various levels, e.g. outlet level, byline level, individual article level, with these evaluations updated over time, especially as new information appears (with links to the new information), and evaluators themselves checking each other for bias/reliability.
Tools such as Media Bias / Fact Check can be helpful at the outlet level.
Adam may (does) have more on this; would be interested in reading (and using) a small collection of the most useful methods.
It can be an interesting exercise to take an automatically-generated Google News fine-grained news category (about some event, typically) and read all the various non-paywalled news pieces with independent writing. Google News includes some very biased outlets.
Ha N.
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thank you for your words of wisdom. I have to admit that I was totally taken in by that tidbit because I felt it made sense. But, you’re right, we don’t know if it’s true.
Carlo Graziani
@Villago Delenda Est: Fukuyama gets a bad rap for that, but title aside, he was trying to see what the future held using a structuralist framework in 1989. He deserves credit for the attempt, which was a then-plausible view of the consequences of the Neo-Liberal triumph over the USSR. Nobody else had a serious try at figuring out what the future held using history as a guide. Lots of people trying to look to the future now are almost certainly getting it at least as wrong, without even doing as much homework as Fukuyama did.
Carlo Graziani
The BBC/Bellingcat fraud emphasises how important it is for media outlets wishing to protect their brand to use public-key encryption to embed unforgeable signatures into every video they release. One frame every 4 seconds or so should be “signed,” in such a way that anyone accessing the digital feed can verify that the signature corresponding to that frame could only have been applied by the custodian of the private key that matches the alleged issuer’s public key.
Gin & Tonic
Two russians try to load a landed reconnaissance drone into a van. Unpleasant results ensue.
edit: I de-linked the hashtags so as not to have a FYWP problem.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s the Israelis making the connection.
YY_Sima Qian
Even at the time, Fukuyama’s analysis relied upon an extremely blinkered reading of the history of the Cold War, the socio-economic & political consequences of the Neoliberal in the U.S. & the UK (to spread across the world, to various extents & at the insistence of the West & Breton Woods organizations then dominated by the West, in the subsequent decade & half), & the developmental experience of E/SE Asia that was not Neoliberal at all. & it took peak hubris to argue that humanity has somehow found the ultimate form of socio-economic & political organization that suited all nations in their circumstances to face all possible challenges hubris that should have been obvious even at the time. Fukuyama’s thesis had few takers anywhere in E/SE Asia, then or since.
Fukuyama’s thesis also helped to cement the Neoliberal Washington Consensus which dramatically worsened income/wealth inequality across the developed world, stunted the economic development across the Global South (outside of the E/SE Asia), consequences of which we are living w/ today & will continue to live w/ for decades onward. Not to mention the attempt to spread “democracy” by force of arms during the GWB years.
It’s not all on Fukuyama, but he helped to forge the consensus & the conventional wisdom.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: None of it is on Fukuyama. He was working with the evidence available in 1989, when the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the involution of the USSR appeared to signal tectonic shifts ahead, and the duty of a philosopher of history was to attempt to understand what it all meant. The 2023 reading of what followed is one that I mostly share (and wrote about), and it doesn’t look much like Fukuyama’s future.
But ridiculing his work is petty and stupid. He identified important forces, including liberalism, which are still important to the way the world needs to be understood today, especially under the onslaught of illiberal regimes that wish to rewrite the world order to suit themselves in a way that would certainly beggar us all.
YY_Sima Qian
It’s one Israeli making the connection, bolstered by a number of Ukrainian (& Western) commentators. It is definitely something to track, & things could develop in that direction.
It is an understandable temptation to believe all of one’s rivals & enemies form one block, but it can lead to bad analysis. Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen using the justification that the Houthis were an Iranian proxy. The majority of the analyses I read at the time suggested that the Houthis were not & the connections were tenuous. However, the years of ruinous Saudi intervention pushed the Houthis to seek Iranian sponsorship, such that it may well now be an Iranian proxy (or not, should SA fully withdraws from its intervention). The U.S. saw the USSR, the PRC & North Vietnam as forming one Communist block, & missed the signs of the Sino-Soviet & Sino-Vietnamese splits. Then there was GWB’s “Axis of Evil”. Finland was not part of the Axis against the USSR, but a co-belligerent. I know you know all of this, but I feel everyone here should take a moment before jumping to admittedly attractive conclusions.
As of this moment, I would say Russia & Iran (& Russia & NK for that matter) are partners of convenience, horse trading to get what each party needs from each relationship at any given time, they are not yet full spectrum alliances. They could develop into full fledged alliances down the line.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I mean, I have much more respect for Fukuyama than most of the other purveyors of the Neoliberal consensus, since he actually modified his views based on changing/new evidence, & acknowledged his mistakes. However, the entire “End of History” framework betrays an internalized Hegelian/Marxist worldview that humanity is evolving toward some kind of perfect end point, rather than the human existence being a perpetual struggle to adjust to ever changing circumstances.
The incipient calamity that is AGW will put every assumption we have to the test.
I think our differing perspectives are informed by our differing experiences (even though I had spent all of the 90s & most of the aughts in the US). For a long time, until the GWOT debacle became obvious in the mid-aughts & the GFC in the late aughts, Fukuyama was lauded as a visionary across much of the U.S. & Europe. In E/SE Asia, regardless of the form of policical-economic organization of the country, Fukuyama was generally regarded as a hack or a naïf, or both.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: BTW, Fukuyama self-identified as neoconservative in the early aughts, a vocal promotor to spread democracy around the world by leveraging American power, hard & soft. He was not just an academic presenting analysis, but a prominent policy advocate, policies informed by his analysis. While he claimed to have harbored private doubts about the 2003 invasion of Iraq (which he did not publicly share in the run up to the invasion), & he came out against the war as early as 2004, at least a small part of the damage done by Neoliberalism & neoconservatism in the 90s & the early aughts was definitely on him.