(Image by Neivanmade)
Before we fully dive into the update regarding Ukraine, I want to focus on the dysfunction in the US that is going to make things infinitely harder for the Ukrainians because I don’t think it has been properly described anywhere. The dysfunction, of course, is the House GOP caucus’s inability to elect a Speaker of the House since they removed Congressman McCarthy. In order for McCarthy to be elected Speaker in the first place he had to cut deals with everyone. The deals he cut with the Freedom Caucus to remain Speaker including using the debt limit to drive massive budget cuts. He blinked on that and cut a deal with President Biden to raise it. That deal included top lines for the twelve appropriations bills that needed to be passed by the end of September. As you may recall the Freedom Caucus was beside itself, which is at least one, if not two, to many Freedom Caucuses. In the run up to the end of the Federal fiscal year, McCarthy attempted to keep the speakership by cutting a new deal with the Freedom Caucus: to impose those massive budget cuts that he didn’t get during the debt limit negotiations and that he’d foresworn as part of the debt limit raise agreement. The Freedom Caucus desperately wants to shut down the Federal government, as well as to blow up the economy via crashing through the debt limit. So much that the want to use the latter to achieve the former. McCarthy’s agreement with President Biden took that off the table in the late Spring. When he then blinked and agreed to a clean continuing resolution (CR) minus the additional Ukraine funding to keep the Federal government open for 45 days, the Freedom Caucus, via Congressman Gaetz, pulled the pin and removed him.
Since then the House GOP Caucus first voted internally that Congressman Scalise would become Speaker. These caucus votes are not to gauge who has what support. Rather, they are intended to choose who the majority caucus will nominate and then once nominated, the majority caucus all votes for their internal nominee. Except the Freedom Caucus just decided that those rules, like so many others, do not apply to them. So the House GOP Caucus met again and nominated Congressman Jordan. This rewarded the Freedom Caucus, teaching them that their behavior works. Unfortunately for them enough non-Freedom Caucus members learned the same lesson and despite the fact that the internal nomination is supposed to be binding, enough refused to vote for Congressman Jordan that he too failed to be elected Speaker.
While all of this is going on the legislative branch of the US government is functionally shut down. The Senate can handle nominations and do committee work, but the House is functionally closed for business. It shouldn’t be, but it is. Why shouldn’t it be? Because we have a Speaker Pro Tem: Patrick McHenry. The Speaker Pro Tim position was created as a continuity of government position and solution for the House in the aftermath of 9-11. Should the Speaker become incapacitated or die – whether from natural causes, an accident, or a deliberate attack – there is a designated member of the House majority who can immediately take over and insure that the government, in this case the legislative branch, continues to operate and function. That’s the whole point of continuity of government positions and solution. Not to create a caretaker who can only oversee the election of the new person who will continue the government function, but to ensure the government function is ongoing until the replacement is in place.
Remember three paragraphs ago when I wrote that the House Freedom Caucus desperately want a government shutdown? They want it to force the President, as well as the Senate to agree to massive budgetary cuts that dismantle most of the Federal governments programs and functions. As is the case with the debt ceiling limit, they want a shutdown to use as a legislative hostage to get what they cannot achieve through regular order. The House GOP Caucus’s decision that the Speaker Pro Tem position, which was created solely to ensure that the House could continue to function and do its business until a new Speaker could be elected, is merely a caretaker who cannot ensure the continuation of the government function gives them what they want. Right now, other than the Senate handling nominations, the US Congress is closed because the House of Representatives is closed for any and all business other than electing a Speaker. And that includes either passing all twelve appropriations bills separately, an omnibus appropriation bill that covers all of them in one package, or a short, medium, or long term (year on year through the end of the Federal fiscal year) continuing resolution. As long as the House GOP Caucus cannot and/or will not elect a Speaker, the legislative branch is shut down and, soon, the Federal government will follow. This may look like Republicans in disarray. It is not! What this is the House GOP Caucus, being led by the House Freedom Caucus, which is controlled by Congressman Jordan, breaking the House of Representatives to get what they want: a Federal government shutdown that can be leveraged to achieve the massive budgetary and program cuts they otherwise do not have the ways and means to achieve. The tell is not a single member of the House GOP Caucus has asked for the House Parliamentarian to issue a ruling clarifying the role of the Speaker Pro Tem. They won’t do that because they can’t take the risk that the ruling won’t state clearly that the whole point of having a Speaker Pro Tem to ensure the House can continue to function until a new Speaker is elected, which would mean that the House would and could have to get back to actual business. It is also why there will never actually be an “empowered” Speaker Pro Tem McHenry, even with Congressman Jordan actually in charge with this new bullshit title of Speaker-Designate.
The effect on Ukraine from all of this is that it ensures that there will not be an Ukraine supplemental. At this point, despite their dispensational pre-millennialist doctrinal support for Israel, the House GOP Caucus would rather shut down the government because they think that will allow them to gut the Federal budget than actual fund Israel, despite their need for Israel to fulfill its role in their apocalyptic theology.
No Speaker, no functioning House of Representatives. No functioning House of Representatives, no Federal appropriations bills – the individual twelve, an omnibus, or any form of CR – and therefore no government funding past the middle of November. No government funding past the middle of November, no Federal government after the middle of November. And that is exactly what the House Freedom Caucus, as well as its enablers among the rest of the House GOP want. Ukraine, as well as Israel, Palestinian refugees trying to flee Gaza, Taiwan, etc will all be just additional and incidental casualties of Congressman Jordan’s and his Freedom Caucus colleagues’ monomaniacal desire to gut the Federal budget based on their insane understanding of the role of Congress and the Federal government. Point and laugh all you want. The House GOP Caucus is not in disarray. It is doing exactly what the House Freedom Caucus wants: setting the conditions for a US government shutdown in mid-November.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I am grateful to the United States for leadership that helps unite the world in protecting lives – address by the President of Ukraine
19 October 2023 – 22:42
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just finished a call with U.S. President Biden. As always, a meaningful conversation – a conversation of allies. A strong signal of support – as much as needed for the victory.
I am grateful to President Biden, to the Congress – both parties – and to the American people for their strong support and leadership – leadership that helps unite the world to protect lives and the rules-based international order. Ukrainians know how important strong unity is in defending against terror, against aggression. Unity here in our country. Unity in partner countries, particularly in America. Unity of the world.
We discussed further joint steps in the defense of freedom. We discussed defense support, including the fact that ATACMS can help us speed up the liberation of Ukraine from the occupier. Of course, we also talked about preserving assistance to Ukraine next year – about a significant support package for our country.
America will support the implementation of the Peace Formula, and I have informed President Biden of the next major international meeting on the Peace Formula, which will take place in Malta this month.
I asked President Biden about his visit to the Middle East and his view of the further developments. We share the same view that it is necessary to avoid further destabilization and incitement of war in this region of the world as well. Ukrainians and Americans, we sympathize with all the victims of the tragic events. Ukraine is ready to work together with America and all partners to stabilize the situation and save as many lives as possible.
Today I also spoke with UN Secretary-General Guterres. We talked about how the UN institutions can help our country and our people during the winter period. We also talked about food security – about the routes of food exports from Ukraine in the Black Sea, about the need to protect Ukrainian ports from Russian terrorist attacks. I invited Mr. Secretary-General to the food summit – the summit of our humanitarian initiative “Grain from Ukraine”, which will be held in November. I also praised the UN’s active participation in the global efforts on the Peace Formula and readiness to send a UN representative to the next meeting in the format of advisors.
Of course, we also discussed the situation in Israel, Palestine, and the Middle East in general. The whole world must be consolidated so that peace reigns in every region of the world – everywhere on earth. And no matter what happens, all parties must ensure that ordinary civilians receive the necessary assistance and are able to flee hostilities. Any form of terror and warmongering is unacceptable.
One more thing.
I started this day with a working trip to Kyiv region – those towns and villages affected by the Russian occupation. I am grateful to everyone who is working to restore everything that was destroyed by the occupier. Ukraine is not left alone – we are being helped by governments of different countries and philanthropists. Of course, a lot needs to be done – a lot needs to be rebuilt, restored, so that not a single ruin is left in Ukraine. But all this work is based on one thing – the sincerity of the hearts of the people who are with us, who value life, freedom and courage as much as we do in Ukraine. I believe that such people are the majority in the world. And we must continue to do everything possible and impossible to ensure that the majority of the world stands with Ukraine.
Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine, for freedom! Thank you to everyone who helps us!
Glory to Ukraine!
Cats are also bringing Ukraine's victory closer.
📸: @Inside_the_AFU pic.twitter.com/ld8xamISzy
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 19, 2023
An ATACMS update:
Ukraine and the United States of America agreed on the continuous supply of long-range ATACMS missiles for our defenders. – The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba.
The minister also expressed hope that in the future the USA will provide Ukraine with an ATACMS… pic.twitter.com/N2WNkSUmS5— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2023
Here’s the details from RBC-Ukraine:
Ukraine and the United States of America have agreed on a constant supply of ATACMS long-range missiles for our defenders.
According to RBC-Ukraine, this was stated on the air of “Breakfast with 1+1” by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba.
“Ukraine’s receipt of ATACMS missiles on an ongoing basis is a direct result of the agreement between President Zelenskyy (President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy – ed.) and President Biden (US President Joe Biden – ed.), which was reached in Washington during their personal meeting at the end of September,” the Foreign Minister stressed.
According to him, if you read “between the lines” Zelenskyy’s speech after the meeting with Biden, you can understand that a very important decision was made and it could only be like that.
“Therefore, I thank the United States for implementing the agreements and for strengthening our firepower,” Kuleba added.
The minister also expressed hope that in the future the United States will provide Ukraine with ATACMS with a range of 300 kilometers.
Avdiivka:
Commander Zaluzhnyi in Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/3XRtN4liK9
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 19, 2023
The Avdiivka direction.
Our morning starts not with coffee, but with reducing the number of Ukraine's enemies. We do everything possible so that your day begins with good news!📷116 TDF Brigade pic.twitter.com/HQrIy2M2zW
— Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces (@TDF_UA) October 19, 2023
116th Territorial Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Avdiivka.https://t.co/YYFvqmWVjm pic.twitter.com/8qUjTWQPbv
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2023
➕DeepState➕ about todays Russian attempted attack on Avdiivka front:
“The enemy resumed assault operations from the direction of Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka front.
➕ Once again, a column with a significant number of equipment pushed towards the railway track with the aim of… pic.twitter.com/I3UlTHj2m4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2023
/2. The path of two BMPs https://t.co/jSPcDk6Iou
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2023
Propagandist Sladkov, commenting on Avdiivka, admits that the only method still available for Russians in terms of advancing is "meat assaults".
He keeps sending these weird signals when he says Russia will definitely fight to victory but then lists essentially impossible… pic.twitter.com/EADUK2AJnb
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 19, 2023
Propagandist Sladkov, commenting on Avdiivka, admits that the only method still available for Russians in terms of advancing is “meat assaults”.
He keeps sending these weird signals when he says Russia will definitely fight to victory but then lists essentially impossible requirements to achieve this.
Zaporizhzhia:
Blast from the war's past. Alexander Mozhaev, aka Babai, an infamous Russian Cossack fighter who was one of the early faces of Russia's first invasion of Crimea and the Donbas, has reportedly been KIA in Zaporizhzhia region. He was not a pleasant man, not fond of nosy journos. pic.twitter.com/YH832QmvDb
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 19, 2023
That’s one Black Sea Cossack down and a lot more to go!
Bakhmut:
Work of the Ukrainian army aviation in Bakhmut.
Published on Sirskiy's telegram channel https://t.co/WA66Jcvvjz pic.twitter.com/GRGDvEXIA8
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 19, 2023
Kharkiv:
Searing @AlecuRussell dispatch from Kharkiv, one of Ukraine’s loveliest cities https://t.co/4eYVtjuaWM
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2023
The Financial Times has the details:
Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv, in north-eastern Ukraine, has decided the time has come to dig deep — literally.
With the nearest Russian rocket batteries just 40 seconds flight time away and still targeting his city 20 months after Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the grizzled politician has ordered workers to build an underground school for up to 1,000 children by the end of the year.
As part of a shift to a subterranean parallel order for Ukraine’s second city, he has also pledged to build Kharkiv’s first underground depot for metro trains next year; metro stations are already hosting five primary schools.
On the mayor’s mind is not just security, but a longer-term conundrum: how to entice back the hundreds of thousands of people who fled last year and how to keep those who stayed.
“We cannot wait until the end of the war” before starting rebuilding, Terekhov said in an interview in his basement office. “If we stop and do nothing we will lose the city. We will not lose territory but we’ll lose our residents.”
But Kharkiv is a city of two realities: it is so close to Russia that even Patriot missiles — which guard the capital Kyiv — would not have enough time to intercept the Russian rockets. Schools and universities operate online. Public meetings are held in basements. The siren sounds several times a day. On October 6 two Russian missiles demolished a housing block in the city centre, killing a 10-year-old boy and his grandmother and wounding 30 more.
Before the war the city’s population was 1.5mn. The authorities now estimate it to be about 1.1mn including 500,000 people displaced from areas occupied by the Russians or near the frontline. Most of the 300,000 students here before the war have left the city.
An added concern is that if the war drags on, many of the city’s businesses may shift their headquarters to the west of the country which is less at risk — and Kharkiv’s economic lifeblood will drain away. “We do worry about it,” the mayor said. He is convinced businesses want to come back but that security and services are essential to persuade them.
There is one bright spot. Known in the Soviet era for its heavy industry, in the decade before Russia’s full-scale invasion Kharkiv developed a thriving tech sector; nationally this grew 10 per cent last year, partly via a shift to defence tech.
The Kharkiv “IT Cluster”, a swanky hub for start-ups, is open for business. Olga Shapoval, the chief executive, said while most of the city’s estimated 50,000 software engineers had dispersed last year all but one of the city’s nearly 500 tech companies were still thriving.
This year though “is not so optimistic” because of the war and also fears of recession in the US where most of their clients are based. Also, Kharkiv has lost the economic boost via the discretionary spending of the engineers, among the best-paid workers in the country.
In the village of Staryi Saltiv, east of Kharkiv, Konstyantyn Hordienko, a 48-year-old councillor, embodies the can-do spirit underpinning local morale. He is overseeing repairs from his base in the local music school; the only habitable official building, it is pockmarked with shrapnel scars and bullet holes.
The village was occupied by Russian forces for two months, and then for five months after they were pushed back was a no-man’s land. “It was ping pong,” Hordienko said. Now about half its population of a few thousand have returned. But there is no gas in the main part of the village and little water, he said, “and winter is coming”.
“There is one big issue: we are 20 kilometres from the border. That’s what stops people coming back — and let’s be honest people will only return where they have a place to live.”
Many international non-governmental organisations have come to look. The German branch of the charity Caritas has funded a supply of wood to heat houses. “But only one in 10 NGOs wants to invest yet because we are so close to Russia,” the councillor said. “They don’t want to see it all destroyed again.
“We have a vision but we don’t have money. It costs a lot to build infrastructure and I understand: the government has to fight the war.”
More at the link!
Berdiansk:
I can't say with certainty, but it appears they are removing blades for subsequent ground transportation. At least 6 helicopters are irreparably damaged due to fire, 1 is in poor condition, and 1 likely has already been removed, making it challenging to determine its exact state
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
Higher resolution imagery for public use just came in from @bradyafr
You can now see it for yourselfhttps://t.co/XhXdgNaY04 pic.twitter.com/zNsnoeZmWS
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
The Luhansk air field:
Amid the predominant public focus on the successful ATACMS strike at Berdyansk airfield, our team has also assembled a comprehensive report on the outcomes of a similar strike at Luhansk airport, where numerous Russian attack and transport helicopters are stationed.
🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/r3xTHSl0DZ— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
3/
In the October 18th imagery, scorch marks from explosions are evident on the airport apron, confirming the deployment of the previously reported M-39 ATACMS missile with nearly a thousand anti-personnel and anti-material bomblets. pic.twitter.com/m1z49uWcU1
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
5/ By analyzing scorch mark patterns and submunition characteristics, we've concluded that avoiding damage, especially for larger objects like helicopters, is highly challenging. This is supported by secondary indicators like rotor absence, leaks, and missing parts. pic.twitter.com/i7ZnQZtCfH
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
7/ While the report of the attack is dated October 17th, multiple helicopters are still present at the base, mirroring a pattern observed at Berdyansk airfield.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
9/ If you found this post valuable, please consider liking and sharing it. These images are made possible through donations on BuyMeACoffee and support from our website's premium subscribers. Consider this option to support future reports like this.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 19, 2023
The left bank of the Dnipro in Russian occupied Kherson, Oblast:
Romanov (Russian) published a video from the Oleshky – Radens'k highway. Number of annihilated Russian equipment is visible. For the record, this is the left bank of the Dnieper, area under control of the Russians (for now). Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery destroying Russian… pic.twitter.com/q6lmvKBllU
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 19, 2023
Romanov (Russian) published a video from the Oleshky – Radens’k highway. Number of annihilated Russian equipment is visible. For the record, this is the left bank of the Dnieper, area under control of the Russians (for now). Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery destroying Russian equipment in the rears.
For you aficionados of Russian military equipment going boom:
The number of destroyed russian tanks is approaching 5,000. Special operations forces blew up several more.
📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/jAJvUHvk6O
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 19, 2023
Russia has arrested another US journalist. This one works for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL):
Russia has arrested another US journalist, RFE's Alsu Kurmasheva, on the more or less explicit basis that reporting on the war in Ukraine is illegal.
Awful news. @polinaivanovva has the latest: https://t.co/Lg10sP5tFA
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2023
From The Financial Times:
Russia has detained a second US journalist, accusing the reporter of failing to register as a foreign agent while collecting information online, according to her employer and a press freedom group.
If found guilty, Alsu Kurmasheva, a dual Russian-US citizen who works for US government-funded outlet Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, could be sentenced to up to five years in jail, the Committee to Protect Journalists said.
Kurmasheva is accused by authorities of having “deliberately conducted a targeted collection of military information about Russian activities via the internet in order to transmit information to foreign sources”, the CPJ said.
Her detention follows the arrest on espionage charges of US journalist Evan Gershkovich in March, as Russia widened its crackdown on all forms of independent journalism in the country after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.
Kurmasheva, an editor for RFE/RL’s Tatar-Bashkir language service, was first detained in Russia’s Tatarstan republic this summer. Kurmasheva lives in Prague in the Czech Republic but travelled to Russia on May 20 because of a family emergency. On June 2, as the journalist was leaving the country, she was detained at Kazan airport.
Russian authorities confiscated her passports, RFE/RL said, and she was unable to leave the country. She was waiting to retrieve her documents when a new charge of failing to register as a foreign agent while collecting information on Russian military activities was announced on October 18, according to RFE/RL.
Local state news agency Tatar-Inform shared a video of Kurmasheva being led by two men, their faces covered in black, to a local courtroom. Citing an unnamed source, it also outlined the accusations the Russian authorities have against Kurmasheva.
According to Tatar-Inform’s report, in September last year Kurmasheva collected information online about university professors in Tatarstan who had been conscripted to fight in Ukraine. That month, Russia had launched a mass mobilisation campaign that sent shockwaves through the country.
Kurmasheva, the allegations claim, “used this information to prepare ‘alternative analytical materials’ for specialised international bodies and to conduct information campaigns discrediting Russia”.
More at the link!
So much for the Israeli-Russian relationship:
Amir Weitmann, powerful member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in Israel, went live on Russia Today and, oh Boy, tore into Russia’s stance. I was only waiting for him to step through the screen. What an epic statement.
This is exactly what will resonate in Moscow, especially with… pic.twitter.com/1pUN1nuQKZ
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 19, 2023
This seems unlikely to help:
Anti-Semitic posts are flooding Russian Telegram channels. It's as if a dam has burst, releasing a wave of hatred towards Israel. Ukraine is also targeted in the same hate-filled posts pic.twitter.com/UT4seWabie
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 19, 2023
Seems they’re having better luck in Pyongyang:
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, met Kim Jong-Un in Pyongyang today. This may mean Putin will take up the invitation to visit North Korea, which the US says is supplying Russia's war effort in Ukraine, fairly soon pic.twitter.com/BMyc3YxRHz
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
Cats are also bringing Ukraine's victory closer.
📸: @Inside_the_AFU pic.twitter.com/ld8xamISzy
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 19, 2023
Open thread!
Frankensteinbeck
If this were true, they would not be screaming at each other.
CaseyL
I don’t know that the Interim Speaker actually can run the House as if they were an actual Speaker. I seem to recall there was a lot of discussion around that when McCarthy got ousted, and many people emphasized that it was, indeed, a caretaker position. The thinking was that an actual Speaker would be quickly elected.
Of course, they were at the time (post-9/11) thinking only that Congress would be decapitated by a foreign terrorist attack, and the “secret list” would enable Congress to respond with resolve and strength. They didn’t know the attack would come from the GOP’s own homegrown terrorists egging one another on.
Now, if the continuing deliberate sabotage of the US government does in fact cause the kind of destruction and chaos you describe, I’d be very much in favor of President Biden declaring it a de facto insurrection, throwing the Fucker Caucus into Gitmo, and getting on with running the country without them.
Adam L Silverman
@Frankensteinbeck: It’s all smoke and mirrors.
Alison Rose
There’s too much and I don’t know what to say.
But thank you as always, Adam.
lowtechcyclist
Looks like Josh Marshall covered a lot of this ground this morning:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-inside-story-of-how-jim-jordan-broke-the-model-didnt-become-speaker-and-decided-that-was-fine/sharetoken/ES62vtwBzIEt
Nukular Biskits
Thanks, Adam!
Yarrow
@Frankensteinbeck: Look at what they do, not what they say.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: You don’t create a continuity of government position that is incapable of actually continuing the governmental function.
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman:
Imagine a Congress that has been bombed, the Speaker killed. Everything is shattered, no one is even sure who is still alive or in shape to work. You need a Speaker – someone with at least a shred of credibility, someone who is elected to the position by the surviving members. You don’t pick a name off a list to be Speaker: you pick a name off a list to handle the election of a Speaker, that the survivors can agree on, that they have a stake in choosing.
The interim Speaker is precisely that. Interim.
Again: this procedure was decided after 9/11. It was decided in the naive faith that the murderers wouldn’t be among the members of Congress themselves. It was not intended as a ploy to keep Congress from doing its job.
Ivan X
Adam, I don’t know how you possibly find the time to do this, but, both at a personal and in a larger sense, thank you.
am
Thank you for saying this out loud.
Omnes Omnibus
It may be what the Freedom Caucus group wants, but that doesn’t mean that the House GOP is not in disarray.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: I think you need to seriously rethink your deficient understanding of what continuity of government means. It means the same thing for the Speaker Pro Tem that it means for the VP or the Speaker should either the President or both the President and Vice President be incapacitated or killed. If the President is incapacitated or killed we don’t have the VP serve as caretaker until a special election can be scheduled, rather the VP takes over either interim or permanent. That’s the whole point of designating an individual to serve as the continuity of government official.
glc
@Omnes Omnibus:
Another Scott
I think you’re being too pessimistic again, Adam.
All of the GQPers want to be re-elected. They want that more than they want to destroy the federal government.
I continue to believe that they’ll go with their obstruction and tantrums until the week the CR runs out, but there will be a Speaker elected and there will be a new CR with little-if-any actual shutdown. They’re threatening to blow up the government because that’s the only power they have left because their numbers are too low to actually force their preferred policy into law.
They want to be able to argue to their voters that they fought for their hair-brained policies, and need to be re-elected to keep the Demonrats from destroying America. They can’t actually make that case if they destroy the economy, etc., etc.
We’ll see.
Thanks as always for your updates. They’re important and appreciated.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@glc: You win the Internet today.
hrprogressive
So, a bunch of avowed anti-government nihilists masquerading as congresspeople are going to shut down the federal government, fulfilling the fever dream of the “drown it in a bathtub” zealotry of the Grover Norquists’ of the world…
…and they’ll get there way because the remaining alleged non-nihilist congresspeople are so cultishly devoted to the idea that “Democrats Bad, Republicans Only” that there’s no way they will break ranks to vote for Jeffries or Lee Zelden or some other non-Fascist Speaker…
…and these people are so devoted to their GOP Only Cultism that they are willing to continue down this road of economic and political calamity in order to sacrifice literally Doing Anything Else, up to and including, the ability to send untold sums of money to the one cause they all legitimately agree upon – sending Israel all the military aid in the world to fulfill their alleged end times prophecies…
And our mainstream media, including the likes of serial two-faced jackals like Jon Kasich, is just going to sit around and thoughtfully wonder what Tip and Ronnie would have done, and why can’t we do that now, damn it, we should be bipartisan again, because Reasons.
Do I have the gist of this post right, or am I missing something?
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: You’ve got it correct.
Ben Vernia
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t disagree that it should work as you describe. My understanding, though, is that the reps elect the speaker, who then puts a name down as the speaker pro tem, just in case. If I’ve got that right, it’s inconsistent with Art II Sec 2’s provision that “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers” (i.e., because the speaker, and not the House, is choosing the Speaker pro tem). I don’t think we’re heading into autocracy if the GOP “empowers” McHenry to do the full job, but the rules probably should be edited when the dust settles.
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman:
Yes. That is in the Constitution.
Where is the Constitutional text providing for continuity of government as regards the Speaker of the House?
Point me to the documentation.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
One of those times I wished I’d be wrong.
Insert Bender Doooooomed dot gif here.
Dr. Fungus
Can a Dem ask the Parliamentarian to clarify the Pro Tem role?
Chetan Murthy
@CaseyL:
[I’m no Constitutional lawyer, but ….]
I think the answer to that is really simple: Article I, section
3[eta] 5: “Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings”And this is a *rule* that specifies who will be Speaker, if the current Speaker is removed from office without a new one being elected. The selection of Speaker is up to the House: the Constitution doesn’t enter into it, except that it specifies majority rule voting for votes
ETA: and even “majority rule” is, I suppose, only for voting for the rules that govern the House. And aside from things like veto overrides. Probably other special cases.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: @CaseyL:
As I noted earlier today, I think this is the relevant language:
IANAL, and I recognize that lawyers are trained to argue either side of any issue, but it seems clear to me that the Spt’s job is to run the House for an election of the next Speaker and that’s about it. Otherwise, the House needs to change the rules and specify what the Spt can do. And given the vote required, it makes sense to simply elect a Speaker rather than make the Spt some sort of new quasi-Speaker with more expansive Speaker-like powers.
The House is supposed to be the democratic institution, so it seems nonsensical to me for its leadership not to be elected by the full body of the House (as some of the GQPers seem to want to do).
But the folks writing that rule probably didn’t imagine the majority party being dysfunctional…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
Perhaps the pre-millenialists believe that Apocalypse is upon us & Israel has already fulfilled its destiny? We’ve already had a pandemic, just need to fan the flames in the Middle East, crash the world economy, & get into a hot war with the PRC, preferably ending in a nuclear exchange.
Cheez Whiz
It’s a win/win for Republicans. If they get their legislation through, they win. If the government shuts down, they win. They believe any economic and social chaos benefits Trump’s chances in the election. The worse things are, the better. And having Jordan as the Speaker If they can ratfuck the election enough to throw it to the House is a golden ticket. All of this makes sense once you realize the goal is to fuck things up.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: There doesn’t need to be. Each chamber sets its own rules for how it will function.
Bill Arnold
This backgrounder seems plausible. I’ve also included links to the pdfs that it links.
speaker pro tem backgrounder (PDF, James P. McGovern, “Committee on Rules Democrats, Ranking Member”)
Congressional Record, 2002/11/14
HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON RULES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION APRIL 29, 2004
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V18/pdf/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V18-2-14.pdf
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: That seems pretty definitive*.
Thanks very much.
Cheers,
Scott.
—
* – with the standard caveat that lawyers can argue about anything. ;-)
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott:
Indeed it does.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Nah. COVID-19 was just a starter pandemic.[1]
Already happened, in 2020. It was a two-fer. (OK, it was a crash-lite.)
[1] This film project was surreal. It was actually released, though not to theaters.
Get ready for Covid-23: making a pandemic thriller in a frightening near future – Initially conceived as a creature-feature, coronavirus gave Songbird, the first film shot in LA since March, a terrifyingly real monster. Its British director explains how he wrangled Michael Bay, Demi Moore – and vacuum-packed props (Nicholas Barber, 10 Dec 2020)
By 2024, COVID-19 has been mutated into COVID-23 (wikipedia)
Philbert
Can a Dem request the Parliamentarian rule on the pro tempor powers? Or is that only for the majority?
Dopey-o
If the crazies just sit on their hands, they win by running out the clock. Much of the government stops functioning.
Endgame? If the crazies intend to hold out for months, what can be done? Other than hoping ‘moderate’ GOP congresspeople join in electing Jeffries / other, I don’t see any remediation.
If the crazies sense they will be out-voted, I foresee armed MAGAs emerging stochastically. They will probably target Democratic Representatives with the aim of preventing a quorum, and spreading terror.
Ukrainians die, Israelis die, Palestinians die. Taiwan faces invasion. The Capitol is guarded by unpaid troops. The crazies will burn the world, and keep burning it until Jesus returns.
Political Ice Nine, and America dies. No damn cat, no damn cradle.
Captain C
@hrprogressive:
This analogy might work if the ’80s Dems were as destructive and incoherent as today’s GQP, and Ronnie was actually a thoughtful politician who…I’ll start again.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: ok here’s what I think – a vacuum of power in a failing institution won’t last and if that means Biden and the senate step in to mitigate damage, it can and will happen.
hrprogressive
@Captain C:
I use that reference with tongue firmly planted in cheek, since Chris Matthews couldn’t ever seem to keep their two names out of his mouth as if they were the benchmark for bipartisanship…without acknowledgement that the Nihilist GOP is not Your Dad’s or Granddad’s GOP.
Adam L Silverman
And there it is:
Bill Arnold
@Philbert:
Good question. Anyone know if the parliamentarian would answer questions from the Minority?
Patrick McHenry‘s job appears to be to shepard the House into electing a Speaker. Appears to be a bit of an asshole but mixed politically, for a Republican. Wikipedia says “McHenry was bitten by a rabid fox while running through Capitol Hill in 2022.”, but a google search didn’t find any 2022 news reports about that.
I don’t see him listed as a known member of the Freedom Caucus
Anyway, if he takes his job description seriously, that would mean at least considering allowing a compromise that included votes of at least some House Democrats.
Manyakitty
@Adam L Silverman: dammit.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Let’s check in with the guy who named McHenry Speaker Pro Tem:
Bill Arnold
@Manyakitty:
Yeah. The numbers to be transferred from that US stockpile in Israel to Ukraine that were being talked about earlier this year were like 300000. Don’t know how many were actually transferred, or how much of what was transferred the Israelis want backfilled. If the Israelis are seriously contemplating the Grozny treatment for Northern Gaza, they are insane.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
There’s not a Republican today who has any redeeming value.
Not a one.
BellyCat
Righteous rant, Adam! Agreed.
randy khan
@Bill Arnold:
I would point out that the Constitutional provisions that are relevant do not prohibit giving the Speaker Pro Tempore additional duties. I believe the material cited in your comment relates to rules adopted by the House, which the House can change by voting as a committee of the whole. (The relevant Constitutional provision says that each house of Congress makes its own rules of operation.)
So, as I see it, the material quoted in your post is definitive as to the Speaker Pro Tempore’s current role, but not as to what the SPT could be allowed to do
Captain C
@hrprogressive: Oh, I figured. But the pundits who do (like the mentioned Chris Matthews, as forgotten as Tuck Tuck has become) seem to be quite sincere.
randy khan
@Dopey-o:
Everyone seems to forget – even our esteemed AS, that the debt ceiling deal contains what you might call a reverse poison pill that kicks in on January 1 – if there are no appropriations and no continuing resolution, then everything gets funded at 1% less than FY 2022 levels until there are appropriations. Now, obviously this is not as good as getting a CR before the shutdown, and it would be the longest shutdown ever, but it won’t go on for months on end.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: WTF?! Does the IDF not have a large stockpile already? & it’s not like the IDF has to duel w/ Hamas artillery to achieve indirect fire superiority, like the Ukrainian Army has to w/ the Russian Army.
RaflW
@Omnes Omnibus: Agreed. And I’d also say that most of the GOP caucus, while they may want to dismantle government, they want even more to avoid being pinned with responsibility for that.
This current chaos is so plainly Republican that it fails the blame-skipping test. Certainly that’s what’s motivating the 22 (+/-) not quite crazy enough to vote Gym sub-caucus. Most of them are in Biden districts.
HeartlandLiberal
This exposition on why the GOP Freedumb Caucus WANTS chaos is the best explanation I have read. Again, Adam Silverman shows why I read his stuff. He OUTSHINES the tradmed by 10,000 percent.
I posted this to Xitter (you know how it is now pronounced) for a wider audience than these here Jackals.
Manyakitty
@Bill Arnold: everyone loses. I hate it here.
Feathers
@Adam L Silverman: Never thought I’d be saying this, but Fuck Joe Biden.
I really think the powers that be in Washington do not realize the extent to which the younger generation has an entirely different mindset on the question of colonialism. Israel’s status as a close ally in the region makes it’s actions more suspect rather than less.
Yes, I’m still a Democrat. Yes I’ll vote for him. No, I’m not going to be shouting this everywhere, just here among friends. But, man, this is an own goal. It is probably being done for a reason, but will this somehow bring Republicans to the table for more Ukraine funding? And why should the world support Ukraine if we don’t?
Bill Arnold
This is interesting, full of charts, worth a read and some thought:
The U.S. House has sailed into dangerously uncharted territory. There’s no going back. Seven data points mapping the weirdness of this moment, and a plea for reform. (LEE DRUTMAN, OCT 20, 2023; author publishes actively, according to scholar.google.com)
(via Digby)
(emphasis mine)
Would be interested in opinions, especially from those with formal political science education. (I do not have such education.)