Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let’s finish the job.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

In my day, never was longer.

“But what about the lurkers?”

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickel?”

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Fuck that bum, let’s go Joe!

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Please don’t feed the bears.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 615: A Brief Tuesday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 615: A Brief Tuesday Night Update

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Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine’s success in the battle for the Black Sea is what will be in history textbooks – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address

31 October 2023 – 22:24

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, there have been several important events.

Firstly, a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. Today is the International Black Sea Action Day, a special day dedicated to our region and our shared waters with our partners. At the Staff meeting, the first issue discussed was the operation of our export corridors, the defense of southern Ukraine – our cities, our ports – against Russian attacks. All of this matters not only to our state, not only to Ukraine’s security but much more broadly. During the full-scale war, we proved that when Ukraine, together with its partners, restores security to the Black Sea, the world gains dividends of greater security for other regions. This ranges from food security to social security because the stability of the food market influences the political stability of many countries in the complicated African and Asian regions. It is very important that due to Ukrainian courage, we practically push the Russian fleet out of the eastern part of the Black Sea – Russia cannot use our sea to extend its aggression to other parts of the world, as it did with Syria. When Russia caused a humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, using the Black Sea as its base, and later our Crimea as a staging ground for Russian military operations. Now, the situation has changed. Fundamentally changed. And when we add even more security to the Black Sea, Russia will lose any opportunity to dominate this area and spread its influence and destructiveness to other countries. The more protection we have along our coastline and in our sea, the more protection there is in the world.

Today, at the Staff meeting, reports were presented by the commander of the Navy, the Defense Intelligence Chief, and the Chief of the Security Service of Ukraine regarding our actions in the south and at sea. The Commander-in-Chief and the commanders of the directions also reported. I am grateful to all our people involved in this work for making Ukraine stronger in the respective directions. Of course, we analyzed the events on the frontlines – in all key points. Avdiyivka, Maryinka, Kupiansk, Lyman sector, the south – guys, thank you for today! There were reports from the Minister of Defense and the Minister for Strategic Industries on ammunition and equipment at the Staff meeting – we are increasing our production and preparing new defense packages from our partners.

Today, I held a special ceremony to award state honors to our soldiers who strengthen Ukrainian power in the battle at sea. The servicemen of the Navy and border guards who defend our waters. Soldiers of the Defense Intelligence and the Security Service. Engineers who create our new weapons – our naval drones – and ensure their functioning. These are all guys who cannot be shown in public, and their names cannot be tied to specific events. For now, as long as the war continues. But they truly deserve the gratitude of the state and the people. I thanked them on behalf of all Ukrainians.

I held a preparatory meeting regarding our work with the European Union. One of Ukraine’s key political goals by the end of this year is our readiness to begin negotiations on EU membership. All levels of the state must be prepared for this, and they will be. We expect a similar readiness from European institutions – we clearly understand the priorities, and we are preparing our steps accordingly.

I also spoke with Prime Minister of Bulgaria Denkov about everything that is relevant to this day, this time for Ukraine. I’m thankful to Bulgaria for their support of our European Union integration and for our highly productive partnership, especially in the Black Sea – in trade and security. It’s important that the agreements we reached during my visit to Bulgaria are fully implemented. We also discussed our additional security options.

The modern world quickly gets accustomed to success. When full-scale aggression began, many around the world expected Ukraine to not withstand. Now, the incredible things our people, our soldiers, are doing are perceived as a given. Ukraine’s success in the battle for the Black Sea is what will be in history textbooks, though it’s not discussed as often now. But… Whatever may be, we must do our part – protect our country, Ukrainian independence, our lives, our culture, Ukrainian freedom. And we will protect it!

I thank everyone in the world who is helping Ukraine. Glory to every one of our soldiers! Glory to all those who never retreat, never burn out, who believe in Ukraine just as they did on February 24, and who continue to fight for Ukraine, those who care for Ukraine. Adding strength to our state every day – that’s what’s needed.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Avdiivka:

There’s 22 tweets in Dima’s thread and no Thread Reader app unroll for it. So I’m going to include a few of the tweets, but not all of them. ETA at 10:15 PM EDT: Bill Arnold in comments found a Thread Reader App unroll for Dima’s thread. So here’s everything including the first tweet that Special Kherson Cat quote tweeted above:

Avdiivka 🧵 part III

My name is Dima and today I have a birthday. I’m 27 and this is my second year in the army fighting against Russian invasion.

A have a lot of thoughts as to that, positive and negative.

But let’s talk about Russian losses and their attempts to attack👇

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Apart from attacks from the NORTH RUAF are trying to advance from the SOUTH. From Vodiane to Severne village.

By the way, these photos from first message were taken in Severne this winter. 

They started attacking here from the 10th of October till know. Now I may say that this October is the bloodiest month for the Russian regular army.

2 tanks, 2 MTLB

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Another one tank, 3 MTLB, 1 APC and 1 IMV from the 10th of October

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Two more tanks from that date. And a couple of BMPs which were published officially before

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These losses from the 10 till 17 of October: 4 BMP, 1 MTLB

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2 BMPs, 2 MTLB?

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Tank + BMP + MTLB 👇

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That tank from above, documented tank, MTLB from above and one more MTLB

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Tank, BMP and MTLB?

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It was a T-72 tank

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30.10.23 2 tanks, BREM and BMP-2👇

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Oops

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Well. That BMP was alive but then was destroyed 👆

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Bid push. 30.10.23

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…

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What’s going on?

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…

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1-2 new BMPs and older losses

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How it’s going?

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Folks, if you want to give me a present or support our unit (that’s the biggest present) you may me a coffe👇

We are working at another important direction and need your support:

buymeacoffee.com/osint4uaa
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And that’s all of it!

Donetsk:

Kupyansk:

Bakhmut from August:

Volonovakha:

Hroza:

Here’s the video of the Hroza survivor’s and their stories from UkrinformTV:

Not quite sure where the 71st is operating:

It’s not clear where exactly these Russian forces from Chuvash were when they got hit by a strike from a HIMARS battery.

Also, obligatory:

Dagestan:

The Financial Times has more details on the pogrom at the airport.

Vladimir Putin vowed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine when his troops invaded last year. Now Russia’s president is under pressure to respond to the worst antisemitic violence to sweep his country in more than a century.

The violent scenes across the North Caucasus last weekend, when an angry mob stormed an airport in Dagestan in search of Israeli passengers, were reminiscent of tsarist-era persecution of Jews. They also indicate the dangers for Russia of stoking antisemitic sentiment amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and repercussions from the Israel-Hamas war.

“When we read about the pogroms in Chișinău and Odesa” — where hundreds of Jews were killed in the 19th and early 20th centuries — “that’s what it looked like”, said Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s former chief rabbi, who left the country last year after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Crowds also over-ran a hotel in Dagestan on Saturday night, searching for Israelis, according to local media coverage. Kommersant reported that a Jewish centre under construction in Nalchik, the capital of the nearby Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, was also set on fire.

The Kremlin has blamed the events in Dagestan on “external interference” by Ukraine and the west, which Putin accused of seeking to split Russian society ahead of a major holiday.

Putin used a Monday-night emergency meeting on the riots to point the finger at Kyiv and the governments that support it for inspiring the unrest. He claimed that western security services used social media to provoke the violence. “Psychological and informational attacks” were intended to “destabilise” Russia, he said.

Putin also escalated his criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. “The terrifying events happening right now in Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of totally innocent people are being killed without differentiation, unable to flee, cannot be justified in any way,” he said.

“Unfortunately, we see that instead of punishment of the criminals and terrorists,” Putin said, referring to Hamas militants who attacked Israel on October 7, “revenge is being taken on the principle of collective responsibility.” More than 1,400 people were killed in the attacks according to Israeli authorities.

But the causes of the riots lie closer to home, analysts say. In majority-Muslim Dagestan, where the worst violence played out over the weekend, long-simmering social resentment mixed with public outrage over Israel’s bombing of Gaza to create a toxic brew authorities could no longer control.

“You see that state propaganda is going against Jews and Israelis, you see there is injustice going on, that it’s inflicted on you . . . so you retaliate against a softer target,” said Emil Aslan, a Caucasus specialist and security studies professor at Charles University in Prague.

Russia’s foreign ministry hosted a prominent Hamas delegation last week, while Putin during a meeting with religious leaders pointedly failed to condemn the Palestinian militant group’s October 7 attacks.

“This might have given a signal to interested parties that ‘hunting season’ has started,” Rabbi Goldschmidt said.

The resentment in Dagestan grew as Russia stoked antisemitic sentiment to fuel hatred of Ukraine, according to Arkady Mil-Man, a former Israeli ambassador to Moscow.

Putin has likened the invasion to the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany in the second world war and claimed that Ukraine is under the grip of a Nazi regime hell-bent on destroying Russia — even though its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is Jewish.

That contradiction has forced Putin and other senior Russian officials into having to resort to rhetorical twists.

Putin apologised to Israel last year after his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, falsely claimed “Hitler also had Jewish blood” and, to justify calling Zelenskyy a Nazi, said that “the most ardent antisemites are usually Jews”.

Last month, Russia’s president appeared to deflect blame from the Nazi forces who ordered the capture and extermination of the Jewish population in Ukraine. “He is rewriting the narrative of the Holocaust,” Mil-Man said.

Critics say Putin’s comments have given rise to a wave of virulent coverage of the Israel-Hamas conflict on state television that has helped fuel even more lurid posts on social media in Dagestan.

In the first days after the Hamas attacks, false rumours began to spread on Russian social media that refugees from Israel were planning to settle in the North Caucasus, according to Alexandra Arkhipova, a sociologist who studies conspiracy theories.

“In Dagestan [and] the North Caucasus in general, it’s very easy to go from a conspiracy story to doing something in real life,” Arkhipova said. During the Covid-19 pandemic, protesters in the region tried to burn down 5G towers, egged on by false rumours that they spread the disease.

When Russia mobilised its reserves last year, Dagestanis protested more than in any other region — showing that “grassroots mobilisation is very strong. And people are willing to be galvanised by it.”

The Russian state’s normalisation and justification of violence during the war in Ukraine, meanwhile, may have encouraged the protesters to take matters into their own hands, she added.

“Evil can’t be put back into Pandora’s box, never to be seen again,” Arkhipova said. “Going forward, this situation becomes uncontrollable, because all sorts of groups feel that if others are violent, they can use that violence too.”

More at the link!

The Eastern District of New York:

Brooklyn Resident and Two Russian-Canadian Nationals, Nikolay Goltsev, Salimdzhon Nasriddinov and Kristina Puzyreva, Charged with Massive Sanctions Evasion and Export Control Scheme

“These defendants are alleged to have illegally exported millions of dollars in electronics to support the Kremlin in its ongoing attacks of Ukraine. Over the course of a year, this criminal organization evaded U.S. sanctions and laws, managing to dispatch over 300 shipments of restricted items, valued at approximately $10 million USD, to the Russian battlefield. This unlawful activity would have persisted if not for the law enforcement collaborative efforts that led to today’s charges,”
https://justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/brooklyn-resident-and-two-russian-canadian-nationals-charged-massive-sanctions-evasion

There were some questions the other night about Russia’s current missile capacity and capability. Here’s a thread with some additional answers:

Tatarigami has produced an assessment on how much material Russia has received from the DPRK:

For you naval drone enthusiasts:

The Insider has done a deep dive into a Russian disinformation campaign:

A flood of spam content has recently emerged on the social network X (previously known as Twitter), promoting the idea that Ukrainians should call for a ceasefire with Russia. The large-scale attack began on October 25th and saw tweets being sent out at a rapid rate of 2.5 tweets per minute, as reported by the analytical project Bot Blocker / antibot4navalny, which analysed the publications. The spam materials are being shared on fake websites that look like well-known news outlets — not only in Ukraine but also in Western countries. Simultaneously, “For Demobilization” protests were suddenly held in various Ukrainian cities, with women holding identical placards demaning to send Ukrainian soldiers home. Analytical data relating to the posts was made available to The Insider.

Columns on strange website

Some of the posts contain links to various pseudo-news and analysis articles. Analysts have pointed out that these posts are shared on websites that are deceptive imitations of well-known Ukrainian news sources. These articles consistently claim that Ukraine’s defeat in the war is imminent, suggesting that Western military and financial aid intended for Ukraine will be redirected to Israel, leaving Ukrainians without essential services such as heating, pensions, and salaries during the winter. Furthermore, they allege that in the absence of military equipment, the authorities in Kyiv are sending thousands of soldiers to the slaughter solely to maintain their grip on power.

The themes in these articles read as follows:

There is no need to hold Avdiivka, as Russia is pulling in reinforcements; Ukraine has been forced to go on the defensive and is suffering huge losses. There will be less Western aid as a lot of resources have been pulled away by Israel. Avdiivka may become another Bakhmut and Soledar: first huge human losses, then the loss of the stronghold itself. Here’s an example of one of these articles.
Ukraine no longer interests the West, Israel is more important — it will get weapons that were meant for Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies will induce Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. Here’s an example of one of these articles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky profits from military aid and war funding. The allocation of funds for the war . In order not to lose the financial inflows from the West, Zelensky will create the appearance of successful battles. Here’s an example
It’s not just Ukrainian sources that are being counterfeited. Pseudo-analytical columns predicting Ukraine’s apparent defeat are also being disseminated on counterfeit versions of well-known Western publications — including fake sites resembling Der Spiegel, Die Welt, Fox News, Le Parisien, Walla, and others. The links shared in the tweets direct users to these fake websites, which further redirect to the clone pages. Western audiences are being presented with a similar narrative: waning interest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a shift of attention towards Israel, and a belief that the Biden administration will no longer provide Kyiv with financial and military assistance.

This represents a large-scale spam campaign featuring pro-Kremlin content aimed at both Ukrainian and Western audiences. Several dozen articles have been distributed in English, French, German, and Hebrew.

The same accounts responsible for sharing these fake articles also promote direct Kremlin propaganda, including a video from the website ukraine inc portraying Vladimir Zelensky as a “drug addict.”

Two brothers
Bots have circulated a video about “two brothers” who were “separated due to the Ukraine coup / political crisis.” The video was initially posted on social platform X on October 25th, accompanied by links to the Russian social network VK and, in some cases, to Vimeo. The tweets were uniform in their messaging, claiming that “YouTube had removed the video, concealing the truth from us, and this is an essential story that we have the right to know.” Each account’s entire tweet history was essentially a string of these links featuring the same video clip. These tweets appeared without any discernible pattern, appearing as responses to various posts and comments, not exclusively in Russian.

According to the narrative, two brothers found themselves at war in Ukraine because of “political events.” Eventually, they encountered each other during an assault, fighting on opposing sides. Then one died near Horlivka, leading civilians out from under fire, and the second, who had gone to Kyiv before the war, was killed by shelling. The story is conveyed by a character identified as the “mother,” portrayed by Russian actress Olga Toroshchina, with one of the “brothers” played by Russian actor Roman Volynsky. The video only briefly alludes to the “political events,” including a clip of Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s speech at the 16th second, in which he commits to “leading Russia to better times.” This statement comes from Yeltsin’s speech after being elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR on May 29, 1990.

As the project’s analysts explained to The Insider, the rapid and high-volume publication of these tweets suggests an automated process at work.

“Unlike traditional ‘salary trolls’ that we’ve been studying for over a year, this spam attack is purely based on automated publishing. That means it’s very cheap to multiply it by 10, 100, or 1,000 times. The current volume of the spam per minute is roughly comparable to what the ‘troll factory’ usually produces on Twitter. But live trolls at keyboards are expensive and difficult to scale, while automated spam is relatively straight foward.”

Fostering anxiety

These identical accounts are not limited to spreading anti-Ukrainian sentiments; many have also posted a photograph depicting a building wall adorned with the Stars of David. These accounts frequently post this image in the comments section of various posts. Across different languages, the descriptions of the photo are the same. Some common quotes include expressions like, “Sad to see the conflict has extended this far,” and “A sad reality of how global conflicts can impact ordinary lives.”

According to analysts at the Bot Blocker / antibot4navalny project, in this way is pumping up anxiety and shifting attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict from Ukraine.

“Our interpretation is that this is anxiety-inducing for Europeans: ‘Don’t think that the conflict in the Middle East is somewhere far away and won’t affect you. Jewish pogroms are already knocking on the door of your neighbor’s house. Are you ready for the next one to be yours?’ This is presented as ‘we are all in favour of a peaceful settlement and ceasefire; we don’t want pogroms at all’ — but the reference to pogroms here is precisely a means of intimidation. It’s like Russia Today during the coronavirus pandemic: we tell Western audiences how many side effects there are from vaccinations, how badly the authorities are handling the crisis, and tell Russian audiences how important it is to get vaccinated, how perfectly tested the vaccines are, how the Ministry of Health is clearly in control of everything. This is what’s happening here: we scare the West with war, while what happens at home is the concern of the office next to us [in reference to the Russian government — translator’s note].”

The Kremlin is behind the attacks

Hackers from Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, have been planting disinformation and carrying out phishing attacks through fake international media websites for many years, and these attacks have only intensified after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Insider previously wrote about this work of the agency in its investigation Attack of the clones: GRU begins large-scale cyberattack on Ukraine.

The project’s analysts also note that, to all appearances, the pro-Russian fake columns and the video about the “brothers” were commissioned by the Russian authorities. Several signs point to this:

The notes have Ukrainian-language and Russian-language versions. The links lead to Ukrainian-language sites, but the titles of the articles in the links are in Russian, as if the editorial staff’s main language is Russian.

There is no reason for real Ukrainian speakers and journalists to post articles on third-party websites.

The accounts are mostly subscribed to major Kazakhstani media / authorities. That indicates that they were created by a Kazakhstani contractor or from under a VPN with access to a server in Kazakhstan.

The profiles sharing the video featuring the “brothers” and related posts tend to have minimal or empty subscription lists. In most cases, they include just one or two large Kazakhstani accounts. Typically, there are a total of three accounts in their subscriptions, with the third one being Elon Musk. X (formerly Twitter) routinely prompts new users to follow Musk immediately upon registration. These accounts were established on the social network between September and October 2023.

Narratives in the articles:

  • Western weapons from Ukraine end up in third countries.
  • Zelensky is profiting from the war.
  • Military aid from the West will be redirected to Israel, and Ukraine will practically stop receiving it.
  • Narratives in a video about the “brothers” originally posted on VK:
  • The collapse of the USSR is the greatest catastrophe.
  • The cause of the war is the illegal change of power in Ukraine.
  • Propaganda narratives in videos on ukraine.inc:
  • Volodymyr Zelensky is a drug addict and alcoholic.
  • People are sent to the front with any degree of disability.

Much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

And a happy birthday to whomever this is:

Reader Interactions

42Comments

  1. 1.

    Nelle

    Maybe brief in comparison to all the news you see, but still looks like a big effort.  Thank you.

  2. 2.

    dimmsdale

    Many thanks as always for these essential posts, Adam. If times were a little less fraught I’d be tempted to wish for your views on the stochastic terror threats permeating our domestic scene, and what you think the future might hold on that score, since there aren’t a lot of commentators out there that I trust on the subject the way I trust you. Instead I just count myself lucky for the work and care you put into these posts. Deepest thanks.

  3. 3.

    Cameron

    Most of that disinformation sounds like gibberish to me – the first thing it made me think of was QAnon.

  5. 5.

    Anoniminous

    Miscellaneous:

    Persistent reports Ukraine is establishing lodgements on the east side of the Dnieper.  Seemingly concurrent support comes from the fact “the Russian commander of this sector,Colonel General Makarevich, has been removed from command”  (source @wartranslated)

    @NoelReports saying all Russian troops have been withdrawn from Belarus.  So much for the  “I’m Concerned” posts a while back about Russian Troops invading Ukraine from the north …. across the Pripet (Pinsk) marshes.

    Russian blogger saying the Penal assault troops at Avdiivka are taking 40 to 70% losses

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    I don’t know why but “extremely on fire” made me laugh.

    The thing about their damn disinfo campaigns that aggravates me is that no matter how weird or uncanny it looks, too many people will still believe it because they don’t pay enough attention, so whatever they do see, they gobble up. Also it seems too easy to get people to believe things that would be horrible if true about the good side. I’ve seen so many posts and comments on the “Zelenskyy is pocketing all the aid money” bullshit, and the idiots don’t spend more than half a second thinking about it and how impossible it would be for it to be true. But then, I guess getting most people to believe a Jew is greedy ain’t difficult.

    This is interesting:

    Over the past week, the Clooney Foundation for Justice (CFJ), a non-governmental organization founded by Amal and George Clooney, filed three cases with German federal prosecutors to investigate crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    Submitted on Oct. 26, the cases rely on absolute universal jurisdiction in Germany, which allows the country to open investigations for international crimes – including genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity – committed outside its borders.

    The CFJ is representing 16 survivors and families of victims of three alleged crimes, including an indiscriminate missile attack on a resort in Odesa Oblast, executions in Kharkiv Oblast last year, and crimes against humanity in Kyiv Oblast during Russian occupation.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose

    Oh, and I shared this in an earlier thread, but it belongs here too:

    For a Halloween trick-or-treat event held at the White House on Oct. 30, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s son appeared to be dressed as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while his daughter’s costume was in Ukrainian national colors.

    Blinken, his wife Evan Ryan, and… pic.twitter.com/iCHS3aKysS
    — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 31, 2023

  8. 8.

    Martin

    Shame we don’t get to see what HIMARS dropping in the middle of 1000 ISO containers of artillery shells would look like. I imagine something like Texas City.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Nelle: The idea was it was going to be brief. And I couldn’t think of a better title. But it kind of grew in the telling.

  15. 15.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Vladimir Putin vowed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine when his troops invaded last year. Now Russia’s president is under pressure to respond to the worst antisemitic violence to sweep his country in more than a century.

    “What are we?” ask the Jewish Doctors.  “Chopped liver?”

  16. 16.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Anoniminous: Russian blogger saying the Penal assault troops at Avdiivka are taking 40 to 70% losses.

    Another old Russian military tradition.  Classic cannon fodder.

  18. 18.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: FlightRadar24 is one of the 300 or so tabs I cycle through a few times a day.  I rarely close tabs.

    ;-)

    (Another tab I have had open for a while is EmoPhilips.com  Wandering through there today I discovered that he was on Miami Vice in an episode with Phil Collins (who played a crooked game show host).

    I used to be great at Trivial Pursuit, but my trivia knowledge is probably obsolete by about 30 years…)

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The IDF just bombed & flattened a 15 – 30 building block in the Jabalya refugee camp in Gaza, likely killing dozens & wounding hundreds. Unlikely the al-Ahli Arab Hospital strike, the IDF has admitted to have conducted the strike, to go after Ibrahim Biari (a Hamas commander thought to be closely linked to the 10/7 attack). A massive bomb was used, so clearly the IDF was not overly concerned about civilian casualties. When pressed on the CNN by Wolf Blitzer (of all people), the IDF spokesman only said civilian casualties are a tragedy of war (echoing what John Kirby, NSC spokesman, said a few days ago), & that Israel had warned civilians for days to go south. However, there is no safe space for Gazan civilians to go to. Israel is striking targets in the southern half of the strip, too, & there is not nearly enough resources & aid to accommodate the Gaza population in the south. & if Israeli intelligence suspects that Hamas commanders have fled south, as well, anyone thinks the IDF will hesitate to go after them in the even more crowded conditions, using highly destructive munitions to do so to raise the probability of killing the target?

    A number of Western experts have pointed out the stark differences between USMC siege of Fallujah to root out Sunni insurgents, Iraqi Army (supported by the US & Iran) of Mosul to root out ISIS, & Israeli siege of Gaza is the former 2 allowed most civilians to evacuate to safe zones before the bulk of the bombing campaigns & urban warfare started. There is no such safe zones available to the Gazan civilians. Egypt has been complicit w/ Israel in keeping the Gaza Strip an open air prison for a decade plus, but Egypt understandably refuses to allow Gazans to enter the Sinai because they do not trust Israel to allow the Gazans to return after Hamas is destroyed, understandably fears that Hamas elements will enter Egypt along w/ the refugees, & that 2M+ refugees will add further strain to an Egyptian economy already on the brink of collapse.

    Meanwhile, in the past couple of weeks we continue to hear accounts of the deliberate barbarity & sadism (aided by drugs?) displayed during Hamas’ surprise attack on 10/7, & the transparently callous attitude (probably even more callous than the IDF) Hamas has shown to the plight of Gazan civilians under their charge.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: I’ve seen the photos. Completely wrong way to do this. Not acceptable by a state actor regardless of the provocation. Not acceptable under any tenet of Judaism.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I think the Biden Administration is actually doing a decent job of “hugging Israel tight” while pushing Israel hard to reduce harm to the civilians – such as delaying the ground offensive, resuming water supply to Gaza (but effect is limited by lack of power & severe damage to infrastructure), allowing a bit of humanitarian aid through. However, the genuflections that the Biden Administration has to do to “hug Israel close” negates the hard reduction efforts, as far as global opinions are concerns (such as the seemingly callous John Kirby quote that “civilian casualties are a tragedy of war”). Then there is the UNGA vote calling for a humanitarian pause, which only 14 nations voted against, nearly half of which are tiny Pacific Island nations that are essentially US protectorates.

    Of course, anti-Semitic forces around the world are seizing the opportunity to try to legitimize themselves by latching onto (& attempting to influence) the anger & protest against Israeli conduct in Gaza & the West Bank, but Israel is making it really easy for them. Scenes coming from northern Gaza strongly resemble the Ukrainian cities, towns & settlements that Russia has “liberated”.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Kirby came out today and said a humanitarian pause would be helpful. But the Israeli response is giving its enemies everything they could’ve ever hoped for. As for the US, as I’ve said for years, nothing the US does in regard to Israel and the Palestinians is ever going to result in a positive outcome for the US even if it is a positive outcome for the Palestinians and the Israelis.

  23. 23.

    Martin

    I was really disappointed in Dan Goldman’s interview on Chris Hayes. I like Dan, but he wasn’t really engaging in the question.

    I mean, I get IDF wanting to target the tunnels under the camp. I get IDF wanting to target the Hamas figures in the tunnels. And yes, it’s a shit move by Hamas to use the camp as a shield. But, the IDF could have signaled they were going to hit the tunnels, and that civilians should leave the camp. That would have led the Hamas figures to also leave, but they can’t evacuate the tunnel itself. It’s a fixed target that the IDF still could have hit without the civilian casualties, in exchange for reaching that Hamas target another day. I think it’s a defensible strategy to say they’re going after the tunnels, and will deal with the Hamas members when they are forced above ground.

    Dan’s argument that everyone has equal worth doesn’t track with Israel’s actions here – clearly the civilians were worth less than the Hamas figure in the tunnel, or else they wouldn’t have gone through with the attack. This is why the theories about the IDF hitting the hospital were plausible, because everyone knew that if there was a Hamas member at or under that hospital, the IDF would totally have bombed it. One of the better arguments that the IDF didn’t attack the hospital was that there was still a hospital after the attack.

    I’m not sure how this is making Israel safer, but then I was one of the people screaming at CNN every time they interviewed a Bush official in 2003.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Kirby came out today and said a humanitarian pause would be helpful.

    That is a change. However, I am beginning to be confused by the Biden Administration’s response here. Kirby’s early “civilian casualties are tragedies of war” comments have already been replayed billions of times around the world (not just the Global South), his new comments will not make a dent unless the US changes its voting behavior in the UN.

    Furthermore, I would think more forcefully & publicly admonishing Israel against violating IHL & LOAC (including calling out specific instances of such violation, which there have been quite many), push Israel to allow a meaningful humanitarian corridor to be established, & push Israel to public commit to the right of Gazans to return to northern half of the strip, would be more helpful than calling for a humanitarian pause. I don’t see how Israel could justify a pause in the attack. which will simply give Hamas more time to prepare & fortify. I am sure Israel fears that acceding to a humanitarian pause now, the pressure for a more sustained ceasefire will become overwhelming later, leaving Hamas unscathed.

    The US policy of shielding Israel from international opprobrium is no longer sustainable. Even if the UNSC/GA motions are partially motivated by anti-Semitism, blanket vetoes & “No” votes can no longer be justified given the way Israel behaves as a militaristic hegemon in its immediate neighborhood, & a colonial power over the Palestinians, since the aughts (if not the 80s).

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: What a shitshow.

    If only the IDF were not fighting genuine monsters in Hamas, the politics would at least permit some very serious expectations-setting of Netanyahu by the US, reining in these kinds of murderous excesses.

    One of my (now) fond recollections of the GHWB administration was Bush’s and Baker’s willingness to use the threat of suspension of US loan guarantees to pressure the Shamir government to cease supporting illegal settlement in the West Bank. I have a (probably reality-untethered) fantasy that after the current crisis is somehow resolved, Biden and Blinken will channel those guys, and put real screws on Bibi.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    Thank you Adam, it’s not easy keeping up with things Ukraine with the war shoved so far off the news pages ATM.

    From the “I’ve got some good news and some bad news” file, Jack Lew, everyone.

    “Yay, I got the job! What, now?”

    The US Senate has confirmed former treasury secretary Jack Lew as the new US Ambassador to Israel.

    President Joe Biden nominated Mr Lew, an Orthodox Jew who held top posts in prior administrations, in September.The White House urged Congress to confirm him quickly after Hamas’s attack, as “high-level diplomatic representation” is “critical”.

    The Senate voted largely on party lines, with Democrats and two Republicans backing Mr Biden’s choice. Mr Lew needed a simple majority in the 100-member Senate for his appointment to be confirmed.

    Godspeed, ambassador.

  28. 28.

    Martin

    @Carlo Graziani: I think the question is whether Ukraine is killing turkeys sufficiently quickly. At a minimum they need to be coming out better than 4:1, which is a pretty tall order.

  29. 29.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Carlo Graziani: From the Even-More-Divorced-From-Reality Department: it has long appeared clear to me that the only conceivable path forwards towards a real peace settlement between Israel and its neighbors would be a US peacekeeping force in Palestinian territories, maintaining security, cutting off extremist Jewish settlers from the land they want to take, fatalistically accepting that this will make them targets of extremists on both sides, and dealing with both threats as necessary.

    Yeah, I know.

  30. 30.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Martin: I don’t think that that’s the right way to frame matters. If Avdiivka were important for some tangible strategic reason that compelled the Ukrainians to defend it, then your calculus would be correct.

    But take a look at the place on Google Maps (make sure you zoom out). It’s just a meaningless suburb of Donetsk! The Russians have chosen to create a killing ground for themselves that will boot them nothing even if they eventually take it. How could the UA pass up such an opportunity to grind their meat?

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t think a US force in Palestine would have credibility in the region, & will quickly become magnet for attacks from all kinds of actors that will want to undermine a peace settlement. I think it will have to be an international force, including those from Muslim majority nations outside of the region (such as Malaysia), the major powers (Europeans, Chinese, Indians, etc.). The purpose of such an international force would be to assuage Israeli concerns about an independent Palestine eventually arming to threaten its existence, as well as to protect the Palestinians from Israeli coercion & settler violence. Any Islamist/eliminationist insurgency (you can bet there will be one, at least in the beginning) will have to be dealt w/ by the Palestinian government.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Mine was already a non-starter. Yours is in “rub a lamp” territory. Just try to imagine getting there from here without invoking magic.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Following IHL & LOAC is the bare minimum standard that nations (especially self proclaimed liberal democracies) ought to meet, something the Shiite dominated Iraqi government managed to a degree while besieging ISIS that was dominated by Sunnis in Mosul. The nature of Hamas is irrelevant, if “rules based international order” is to have any meaning.

    Furthermore, GWB, Obama, Trump (ha!) & Biden Administrations have had plenty of opportunities to coerce Israel into stopping its illegal settlement program in the WB, its slow motion ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their traditional settlements, & to stem the unrestrained settler violence, by leveraging its massive military aid program (doesn’t even have to threaten the security guarantees). The Obama Administration at least verbally admonished Israel, but none did anything substantive. Now, the Overton Window has shifted so much that even a condemnation of Israeli settlement activities in the WB, & its complicity in settler violence & ethnic cleansing, is too politically dangerous in the US (& parts of the West) for fear of being branded as “anti-Israel” or “anti-Semitic”. As recently as in Sept., the Biden Administration was congratulating itself for pushing forward the normalization process between Israel & certain Sunni Arab states, while keeping the Palestinian issue contained.

    One thing Hamas’ barbarous assault has accomplished is to blow into smithereens the delusion in Jerusalem, Riyadh, Brussels, DC & London that a regional anti-Iran éntente can be achieved while relegating the Palestinians to an increasingly inhumane purgatory. If Hamas had restrained itself to attacking Israeli military, police & government targets, there would be tremendous pressure on Israel not to respond militarily & to make concessions to the Palestinians (both Hamas & the PA). Then again, that organization would not be Hamas.

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t think the composition of a multinational force in Palestine is the problem. A meaningful & just Two State Solution, which would create the conditions for such a multinational force to be in Palestine, is the “rub the lamp” fantasy as of this moment.

  35. 35.

    piratedan

    @YY_Sima Qian: well, it certainly would be as long as Bibi and Hamas are at the table…. the reality that they were serving as mutual bogeymen for each other to their own political ends means that good faith is obviously in very short supply.

    My question is, how do you remove both from the equation and who’s got the nads/chutzpah/wherewithal and actual ability to make that happen?

  36. 36.

    ColoradoGuy

    @YY_Sima Qian: I have to reluctantly agree. The entire problem with the Two State Solution is one part of it is not even remotely a state. No Army, no Air Force, no Navy, no sovereign currency, no Central Bank, and no functional sovereignty (control of its own territory).

    All it has is a sham Parliament with almost no powers, a marginal court system with a dubious Constitution, and police with limited powers as well. As a simple example, if an Israeli citizen commits a crime on Palestinian territory, do the Palestinian police get to chase the criminal, arrest him, and try him? If not, there is no sovereignty.

    The proposed “solution” are even worse than the Bantustans of South Africa. Many disconnected territories with limited rights of transport between them. Not even an airport of their own, nor ports.

    In reality, the scattered regions of Palestine are badly managed colonies, a sensitive topic for many countries in the Global South. Occupation (of Gaza) by neutral UN troops might be the least-bad short-term approach.

  37. 37.

    Geminid

    ⁵

    @piratedan: I think the only people who can remove the PM from the equation are the Israelis. I also don’t think Netanyahu will be PM six months from now, or ever again.

    That’s not to say that the path to peace would be smooth when he’s gone, because on basic issues of security Netanyahu is not an outlier among Israeli politicians. In the short term, I think the best that country could do would be to exclude Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and their racist band from the government and to never let them back in. Matters will only get worse until they are marginalized.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @piratedan: I think it has to start in Israel, as by far the stronger of the 2 parties, remove the religious extremists & the fascists from governments, rebuild consensus on the desirability of a 2 state solution, halt & reverse the settlements outside of East Jerusalem, curtail settlement in East Jerusalem. Contain Hamas (or the inevitable successor that is equally hostile to Israel) in Gaza, but not in the form of the inhumane blockade. Then work out a provisional arrangement w/ the Palestinian Authority in the WB, reform it so that it is not synonymous w/ Fatah nepotism but not necessarily to a liberal democracy, giving it real autonomy & aspects of sovereignty, working w/ the international community to build up the PA as a credible de facto state w/ contiguous territory,  promote economic reconstruction & growth. Use the positive example of the WB to entice the Gazans to follow the same path, overthrow Hamas or its successor, and agree to be ruled by the PA. Then formally establish the Palestinian state, formal mutual diplomatic recognition, & security guarantees by the regional & great powers for both states (for whatever it is worth).

    Pure fantasy, though.

  39. 39.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Since this is a situation that needs to be solved, and you have laid out the basic steps that must be taken, I would not call it a fantasy but rather a realist approach. We’ll see if Israeli politicians carry out the first prerequisite by excluding political arsonists Smotrich and Ben-Gvir from the government. That could happen even before a new election.

    Are you familiar with Dr. Einat Wilf and her writings? She is a former MK who has written extensively on this subject.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: I wish it is not a fantasy. That road map is basically the spirit of the Oslo Accords. I can see the Israeli body politic removing the religious extremists & fascists. Rebuilding consensus toward the Two State Solution will be very tough (there was not universal consensus even during Rabin). Halting settlement activities in the WB will be extremely tough, reversing it will probably cause a civil war (see the much smaller withdrawal from Gaza). However, unless most/all of settlements outside of East Jerusalem are dismantled, there is no possibility of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state, which was the point of these settlements to begin w/. Leaving Jewish settlers in the WB subject to Palestinian laws is a potential solution, but not one that is politically palatable any time soon.

    I suspect that Israeli elites, as politicians everywhere are wont to do, will seek to preserve the short term unity & integrity of the state, even at the expense of its long term security. That choice is all the easier as the U.S. (& to a lesser extent the West in general) continue to work to shield Israel from the costs & consequences of its choices.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: I have read Dr. Wilf’s writings that you have shared, which I am very grateful for. I am encouraged that the surprise Hamas assault, in spite of its barbarity, has given space to such voices to gain some prominence in Israel again. Seeds for a peaceful solution, & realistic ways to get there, has be kept alive somewhere for there to be any hope, however forlorn.

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