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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 616: General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional Warfare

War for Ukraine Day 616: General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional Warfare

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Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia once again opened up on Ukraine overnight. The Air Force of Ukraine has the details:

And:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

1 November 2023 – 18:55

I wish good health to all Ukrainians, both men and women!

First and foremost, gratitude to our sky defenders – the soldiers of mobile fire groups, Ukrainian pilots, and soldiers of anti-aircraft missile units, all units that destroy Russian aircraft, missiles, and drones… Last night, 18 Shahed drones and one guided air missile were shot down. Unfortunately, there are several hits. But most of the enemy targets have been destroyed. Including in Poltava region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region, Vinnytsia region, and Khmelnytsky region, in other regions of our country. I thank our soldiers for this. We all need to remember clearly: every such downing means saving lives and infrastructure. And I ask all Ukrainians to pay attention to air raid alerts and to understand that, even though we are strengthening our air defense as much as possible, the danger is still significant. Especially in cities like Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson. In the cities and villages of Kherson region, Donetsk region. In Chernihiv, Sumy regions. It’s important to be cautious and not take the danger lightly.

Today, I held several important meetings and, as always, a video conference: with the military, intelligence, government officials, and those responsible for the situation in the regions. I also had a meeting with our team that represented Ukraine at the advisors’ meeting on the Peace Formula. We discussed the main details and outcomes of this summit. We are not revealing at the moment some things, which are very beneficial for Ukraine and international law in general. The reason is clear: we don’t want to give Russia a chance to undermine our international efforts. But I can say that this, the third advisors’ meeting, was even stronger than the two held before it. It continued to consolidate the world. There is a joint statement of the co-chairs of the advisors’ meeting in Malta. And there are many signals from representatives of states, including the Global South and our partners in Europe and in the United States, confirming the correctness of our course to unite the world around the Peace Formula, so that the principles of a just peace and the full restoration of international law become a common plan for the world’s majority. Today, during the meeting, we identified the main steps we will take in the coming months to add new substance to the Peace Formula.

Another very important thing. Today’s date has a special geopolitical and values-based meaning. This day, November 1, is practically celebrated as the birth of the European Union. Thirty years ago, the Maastricht Treaty came into force, laying the foundations for modern European unity. There was a lot of resistance to Europe to be united, a lot of doubt about a united Europe. And even today, anti-European policies are quite vocal in various countries, including those where European optimism is critically important for maintaining peace and normalcy in Europe and the world. However, the European Union has proven time and again that it can overcome crises, defend itself, preserve its valuable leadership in the world, and become stronger when Europe’s enemies expect only weakness.

We value our Europe, the Europe of cooperation, not confrontation, the Europe of people, not ideologies, because only in this way can our continent protect and defend human lives both in European countries and in the world. I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever, and we are working actively to remove any obstacles to our accession to the European Union. I am also confident that no matter how events unfold in the world, among our partners in the United States and elsewhere, unity will prevail. Unity, not division. Unity, not calls for isolation.

I thank everyone for their support for Ukraine, for our joint efforts to defend our European values. I also thank everyone in the world who helps to preserve unity, from Washington to every capital where people value human lives.

Glory to all who fight for freedom! Glory to our soldiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

“You have to fight for your freedom. If you don’t want to be yoked or become a slave, then you have to fight.”

Dmytro “Da Vinci” Kotsyubailo, would have turned 28 today.

Dmytro was a Ukrainian volunteer who served as the 67th Mechanized Brigade’s battalion commander. In 2021, he became the first volunteer to be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine. “Da Vinci” died in a battle near Bakhmut on March 7 this year.

Eternal memory and glory to our fallen heroes!

Today, November 1, is the birthday of the commander and leader of the 1st separate battalion “Da Vinci Wolves”!

The purpose behind the cost:

General Zaluzhnyi gave an interview to The Economist that was published today. It is paywalled. However, they also published his treatise on modern positional warfare. In his essay he delineates five things that the Ukrainian military must do to achieve battlefield success. (emphasis mine)

Having launched the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine on February 24,
2022, the russian federation provoked the beginning of an unprecedented global security
crisis, the largest since the end of the Second World War. russian great-power chauvinism
multiplied by sick imperial ambitions gradually turns the military conflict it began in the
centre of Europe into an armed confrontation between democratic and authoritarian political
regimes with the prospect of its spread to other regions of the planet with similar geopolitical
models (Israel and the Gaza Strip, South and North Koreas, Taiwan and China, etc.). The
insufficient effectiveness of the existing global political regulatory mechanisms, primarily the
UN and the OSCE, leaves Ukraine no choice but to restore its territorial integrity after the
large-scale armed aggression within the internationally recognized borders of 1991,
exclusively by military force, in which its Armed Forces (AF) play a decisive role.

Having entered the war with a stronger enemy, which has a lot of weapons and a much
greater mobilization capabilities, Ukraine was not only able to stop it, but also to conduct a
successful counteroffensive in 2022 and stave the enemy off along many axes. The people of
Ukraine have demonstrated their willingness not in words, but in deeds to lay down their soul
and body for their freedom. However, due to many subjective and objective reasons, the war
at the present stage is gradually moving to a positional form, a way out of which in the
historical retrospect has always been difficult for both the Armed Forces and the state as a whole. At the same time, the prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. In our particular case, it is the russian federation, as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power. Therefore, the issues of understanding the causes of such a situation, finding possible ways out of it and changing the nature and course of this war in favour of Ukraine are of particular relevance in modern conditions.

An analysis of the current situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other
components of the state Defence Forces are placed shows that in order to find a way out of the positional form of warfare, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Therefore, the determination of the reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form and the search for possible ways out of this situation should obviously be carried out according to these main components. It should be noted that the above-mentioned components in no way level the role and place of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, electronic warfare, other types of weapons and equipment provided by partners. They only complement them in the context of increasing the capabilities of the Defence Forces through new technological solutions and innovative approaches on a way out of the positional crisis on the line of contact. Let’s consider these reasons in more detail.

GEN Zaluzhnyi’s detailed explanation of his five key points at the link!

We’re all terribly at ease now.

We seem to have entirely forgotten the fact that — above everything else — Ukraine is fighting a war of defense against one of the world’s largest military powers that enjoys an immense stock of resources, along with a colossal material legacy of the Soviet military.

It’s a fucking man-made miracle that, over 600 days into the full-scale invasion, we are where we are, and 80% of Ukraine’s territory is free from occupation and has *relatively* peaceful life.

Neither Kyiv, nor Kharkiv, or Odesa, or Lviv, are under Russian occupation.

Just recall the days of February 2022 and Russia’s Kyiv-in-three-days bravado.

Back then, did any of the critics of today’s Ukraine expect the crushing defeat of Russia’s blitzkrieg at Kyiv?

Or the sinking of the Moskva cruiser? Or the fact that Russia still being not even close to having Donbas captured by the end of 2023? Or Ukraine’s Kharkiv breakthrough? Or the triumphant liberation of Kherson?

Or the Snake Island? Or the battle of Bakhmut that lasted a year? Or the Russian defeat at Mykolaiv? Or drone attacks on Moscow & the Kremlin? Or Russian strategic airfields and Black Sea Fleet HQs being wiped out?

Or Ukraine’s military mastering dozens of Western-provided weapon types, from artillery to advanced air defense, on the fly? Or Russia losing close to 2,500 tanks in combat? Or the fact that Ukraine survived a winter of Russian missile attacks on the heating and electric supply grid?

Or the fact that Russia was forced to declare mobilization for the first time since 1941 and 1914 and to mass-recruit suicidal convicts? Or the Kremlin begging Iran for drones and North Korea for ammo to go on?

Or the fact that Ukraine completely retook the initiative in the war and initiated a full-scale counter-offensive operation to possibly bring the war to an end? Or Ukraine talking not only about the national survival but the return to the legitimate national borders of 1991 as the war’s ultimate end goal?

How many of those things were realistically expected as half of the world was sighing, shaking its head, expressing concerns, and saying Ukraine would be done for soon?

Some of us need to come down to earth and recall it that Ukraine has stood against Russia all this time.

It’s a fucking man-made miracle that, 615 days on, we’re talking about THIS.

We’ve made a light-year-long way over the last 20 months.

Especially given the fact of how little the chances were and how disproportionate are the combating powers.
And how little and late Ukraine gets its resources to go on fighting.

However, this thing works the other way around, too.

Some people need to wake up and realize that Ukraine is combating a defensive war against Russia.

So if we want this all to end in a good way, Ukraine needs to get all the necessary instruments BEFORE it mounts a potentially decisive, extremely difficult counteroffensive — not AFTER the operation fades away due to insufficient resources provided to her again due to the fear of “escalation.”

Avdiivka:

 

Previously undocumented Russian losses during attacks on Avdiivka shown in thread by @OSINTua:
2xT-80BV, Damaged;
4xT-80BV, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3M, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3, Destroyed;
1xT-72B, Damaged;
1xT-64B, Destroyed;
2xUnknown Tank, Destroyed;
1xBTR-80, Abounded;
1xBMP, Destroyed
3xBMP-1, Destroyed;
2xBMP-1, Damaged;
1xBMP-2, Destroyed;
3xBMP-2, Damaged;
6xMT-LB, Destroyed;
3xMT-LB, Damaged.
Total – 32, of which 12 tanks.
https://t.me/lost_warinua/54901

GeoConfirmed takes a deep dive into the Russian loses in/near Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Losses older than 9 October (Purple).
At least 61 are filtered out.Every loss after 9 October is checked with Com Sat Img.

2/XImage

Methodology:

Losses: If a vehicle is more than 3 days on the exact same place. Most of the time burnmarks/destruction is visible. Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.

Potential loss: no second footage available to confirm its a loss.

3/X

99 Losses (Orange) are from the first wave of the offensive:
Between 9 and 13 October.94 losses (Orange) are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.

4 confirmed (Orange) and 18 potential losses (Yellow) between 24 and 31 October.

4/X
Image
Image

Let’s start with South Avdiivka.

Vehicles from this video are confirmed destroyed.

5/X

EVERY pin is a different confirmed loss.

6/XImage

The area around Vodyane.

Some examples.

7/X

Other example:

8/X

Other example:

9/X

And another example:

10/X

Losses around Vodyane:

11/XImage

Lets go to North Avdiivka:

First the area around Novoselivka Druha:

12/XImage

Footage from some of those losses:

13/X

Other footage from some of those losses:

14/X

Area around Krasnohorivka.

15/XImage

Some footage:

16/X

Other footage:

17/X

Area south of Krasnohorivka.

18/XImage

Remember this video?

All the orange pins East and South of the lake are the result.

19/X

And the destruction in this video is also mostly in this area:

20/X

West of Krasnohorivka.

21/XImage

This video is from this area.

22/X

Other related footage:

23/X

Other related footage:

24/X

And this column?

Needed to retreat. But at least 6 vehicles were destroyed during this retreat.

25/X

Some more losses from this area.

(At 0:39 you see, for example, the vehicles from the above footage that were not able to retreat.)

26/X

Other losses from this area:

27/X

12 October we stated this.

“this could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war.”

We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault, during 3 weeks, for one city, since the beginning of the war.

28/X

197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.
61 previously known losses in this area.This is not even comparable with the Ukrainian losses during their offensive. Nor in amount, nor in time.

29/Image

30/X geoconfirmed.org/ukraine
Image

Special thanks to @Tatarigami_UA for his great work regarding this investigation.

31/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

If you like our work you can provide us a coffee.

This helps:
Improving our map and user interface
Improving data management
Buying Sat Img for confirmations and investigations

Thx!

32/X

Because some people really have a problem with reading comprehension, an additional clarification:

a. “From 09/10 october” means that those losses where not there before. Not visible on Sat Img, not seen before. NOT THERE BEFORE.
Purple are the older losses.

b. Tweet 3 states clearly: Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.

So from the 99 losses between 9 and 13 Oct and 94 losses from between 14 and 23 October only 10 were not there anymore on 30 or 31 October.

So at least 90 losses are still in place since at least 13 October…
and at least 84 losses are still in place since at least 23 October…
We checked EVERY POTENTIAL LOSS on the 30/31 Oct Com Sat img.

Loads are visible in the GeoConfirmed footage, others are in the @Tatarigami_UA thread, others were not known yet but visible in Com Sat Img.

Please, for some of you: read a thread before you react.

33/X 

The Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:

Russian channel VchK-OGPU says that Russian General Teplinskiy might have been a target in a “strike against the command centre of the “Dnepr” army group”. The news about Teplinsky replacing Makarevich as the head of the “Dnepr” group was leaked just days ago. This general, who comes from VDV, appears to be highly esteemed by Russian servicemen.

Personally, I always take info from this channel with a big grain of salt, but they were right on several occasions. I would not be surprised if Teplinsky appears on some TV program in Russia in the next few weeks, looking healthy.

But if this information is true, and Teplinsky is knocked out in some capacity, it would be a big win for Ukraine.

https://t.me/vchkogpu/43416

The Kerch Straits Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea:

Bakhmut:

Lankove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Kupyansk:

Somewhere in Donetsk:

As I’ve noticed in for other accounts, here’s more evidence that the Starlink Snowflake has had whomever is left of his coders fucking with the pro-Ukrainian accounts:

Over the past few months, my team and I have dedicated considerable time and resources to big projects, such as investigating ammunition losses in Avdiivka and tracking North Korean ammunition shipments. We take pride in the fact that our work has been recognized and cited by prominent media outlets, which we deeply appreciate.

However, we’ve noticed a substantial decrease in post visibility, possibly due to changes in the platform’s algorithm or shifts in user engagement. Our post views have declined by approximately 50-70% (varies by post), although engagement with our content, including retweets by accounts with 300k – 1 million followers, remains steady and even shows an upward trend.

As a result, we have decided to shift our focus towards our project’s website. We will continue to share research excerpts and quotes here, but our primary emphasis will be on the website. It’s challenging to invest days in fact-based analysis, including valuable insights, when it garners less attention than quickly downloaded, unverified videos from Telegram presented as open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Most of our website’s publications are available to all users without cost. We also provide exclusive premium content to our paid subscribers. These subscriptions play a vital role in supporting our operations, allowing us to cover expenses such as obtaining imagery, purchasing software and licenses, and expressing gratitude to the volunteers who contribute their time and expertise without compensation. This revenue stream helps sustain our work. While we appreciate the donations we receive here, we understand that continuously requesting them is uncomfortable, especially when there are numerous fundraisers for essential items like tourniquets and FPV drones. We recognize that, after nearly two years of conflict, people are fatigued and facing their own family and personal priorities.

We will maintain our presence here by sharing shorter versions of our work, along with links to our website for in-depth analysis. Additionally, we plan to begin providing weekly or bi-weekly summarized updates to our followers on the website through email distribution.

We invite you to follow us on our website to receive email updates and access our content in a more user-friendly format compared to the X platform:

https://frontelligence.substack.com

Max Seddon at The Financial Times reports on Putin toning down his nuclear rhetoric: (emphasis mine)

Alone in a windowless room in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin last week presided over Russia’s nuclear forces as they rehearsed a massive retaliatory strike from air, land, and sea.

Simulating a radioactive mushroom cloud that could render much of the planet uninhabitable served as a stark reminder of the nuclear deterrent the Russian president still has at his disposal.

The posturing, experts say, is Putin’s way of keeping nuclear tensions at a simmer even as he dialled down threats that had alarmed allies and foes alike about the war in Ukraine turning into an atomic conflagration.

Russia’s leader first stoked fears he could carry out a limited nuclear strike in Ukraine in a speech on the eve of the 2022 full-scale invasion. He then vowed to “use all the means at our disposal” to defend Moscow’s conquests when he annexed four Ukrainian regions six months later.

Those threats prompted the US, UK and France to vow retaliation with conventional weapons, according to current and former officials. China’s leader Xi Jinping, who has otherwise given tacit backing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, has also personally warned Putin against using nuclear weapons, including at a face-to-face meeting in March, officials said.

Putin admitted last autumn it would make no “political or military sense” to use tactical nuclear weapons and largely stopped talking about his atomic arsenal.

“It became clear that nobody likes the idea of nuclear weapons being involved in this war, and there was strong opposition from many countries, including those close to Putin,” said Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.

Instead, in recent months, Russia has explored other ways to use its atomic arsenal as a deterrent against western support for Ukraine. While these measures fall short of outright threats, they attempt to show Russia’s determination in Ukraine, and the broader cost of standing in its way.

“There was an understanding that Russia won’t gain any friends by putting emphasis on its nuclear weapons,” Podvig said. “So the de-ratification of CTBT was a kind of compromise, if you will, between those who want a strong stick and those who realise it would be counterproductive.”

Western countries have reacted with restraint to Russia’s tests of its advanced new weapons systems, which have been plagued by delays and failed launches.

“Some of these are truly exotic systems that don’t particularly have any real military value,” Podvig said. “They allow Putin to say, we have a response and this is something that nobody else has. So it makes him happy, which in today’s Russia is no small thing.”

In Moscow, the measures taken in regards to the nuclear arsenal were portrayed as a sign of Russia successfully containing the west. “Less talk, more action,” said Dmitry Trenin, a prominent foreign policy academic who favours nuclear sabre-rattling to “bring back fear” in western capitals.

Putin’s moves showed he had realised that Russia’s attempts to deter the west from supporting Ukraine “need significant strengthening”, Trenin said. “This is an important step towards adapting our peacetime containment policy to the conditions of a real war, an indirect one for now.” In winning the war in Ukraine, Trenin said, “Russia will look at all the resources it has without exception, including heightened nuclear containment.”

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a new, but related, video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Хочеш зустрітись зі мною або отримати відбиток моєї лапки?🥰Тоді обов’язково долучайся до мого збору на протезування саперів! Усі умови вже розповів у своєму інst!🐾❤️

♬ je te laisserai de mots – ☆☆

Here’s a machine translation of the caption:

Do you want to meet me or get a print of my paw? 🥰 Then be sure to join my collection for prosthetic sappers! I have already told you all the conditions in my insta! 🐾❤️

I can’t access Instagram, so if someone wants to post the relevant details in a comment please do!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

22Comments

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

     

    We value our Europe, the Europe of cooperation, not confrontation, the Europe of people, not ideologies, because only in this way can our continent protect and defend human lives both in European countries and in the world. I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever, and we are working actively to remove any obstacles to our accession to the European Union. I am also confident that no matter how events unfold in the world, among our partners in the United States and elsewhere, unity will prevail. Unity, not division. Unity, not calls for isolation.

    This is an excellent passage. I really admire the way he communicates, and how even when he’s getting in a minor dig (a well-deserved one) it’s still in such a statesmanlike way that you almost don’t notice it at first.

    Also that tweet from Ponomarenko is straight fire. No lies detected.

    From Patron’s Instagram: (auto-translated so probably not super accurate)

    I recently had some of the warmest trip of my life: to the Prosthesis and Rehabilitation Center @superhumans.center I saw how happy the soldiers are, who are able to walk again. Take a step again. This is so much! Just mention my Kraken who’s already back in his business and educating mine danger 💛 He’s back on track, he’s back to serving his country. And he is, I have to say, happy.

    I went to Superhumans to congratulate the discharge of two military sappers Vadim Frolov and Alexander Boychuk. When they lost legs – my Michael insisted on protezuvanní exactly in Ukraine. And at the same time, I met @rudnieva_olga which is the director of Superhumans. And in just 5 minutes she said: “We’ll do everything for them, let them come to us.”
    And then… thanks to you and your donations and staff Superhumans Vadim and Sasha got back on two feet.
    You may not have sent me direct funds to the Fund. But bought official candy, toys, etc. But I thought how would you want more sappers to walk again?

    I opened a separate bank for prosthetics of sappers (both military and dsns) at the Superhumans Center. And to good-cashback to you faster back – I have prizes for you!
    Everyone who will donate 50 hryvnias or more to the bank will have the opportunity to win:

    🐾 my paw print
    🤭 pillow from the cartoon collection on which I’ve already managed to sleep (with wool! )

    And for the biggest donation in the jar – the biggest prize. Meeting me in chernihiv or Kyiv (or by video contact who’s abroad).

    The draw will take place until November 15. I’ll tell you the winners there🤗
    Link to the bank in stories and profile header

    Remember that 50 bucks is one “step” (as symbolically, eh) ☺️. That is, more donuts for 50,100,200,1000 UAH – more “steps” and chances to win gifts. And most importantly, you will give someone happiness. And this is priceless.

    Otake came up with this
    Everybody active lick 👅

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    jackmac

    It’s so frustrating that our short attention span, ADHD-driven national media have dropped most Ukraine coverage in favor of reporting on the Israel-Hamas conflagration. President Biden, however, can walk and chew gum at the same time and is able to concentrate on both and continues to emphasize the need for an ongoing aid package for Ukraine.

    And, thankfully, we have Adam keeping an eye on the store with these comprehensive daily reports. Thanks Adam!

  4. 4.

    wjca

    Thank you, Adam, for all of these.

    I can see how North Korea can replenish Russian ammunition.  But replace 2000+ tanks?  That seems unlikely, even if North Korea has that many.  This seems likely to be a serious problem for some time to come.

  5. 5.

    Anoniminous

    “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.

    It isn’t and never was a sustainable strategy. But it is a good way for Biden, et.al., to pretend to be doing something while in reality accomplishing jack-squat diddly.  War is all about killing people.  The faster you kill your enemy the faster the war will end.  A funky-ton of munitions and a bunch of people who knows how to use them is the only way to kill the maximum amount of people in a minimal amount of time.

  6. 6.

    Dan B

    Thanks for including the flashy stuff – RU losses – and the emotional human stories – sappers with prostheses who are smiling.

  7. 7.

    Martin

    I don’t understand why Russia is trickling drones in to be mostly shot down, unless the drones are of less value than the interceptors, and they expect attrition to work in their favor.

    We’ve now seen two situations – one with the Ukrainian air blitz on Sevastopol, and the other with the Hamas rocket blitz against Iron Dome that have demonstrated that simply giving air defense more targets than they can handle is effective given that air defense is designed around a small number of relatively expensive/powerful inbound targets rather than a swarm of cheap, less powerful ones. Seems like less frequent attacks of larger number of drone – particularly targeting single areas would actually be effective.

  8. 8.

    wjca

    It isn’t and never was a sustainable strategy. But it is a good way for Biden, et.al., to pretend to be doing something while in reality accomplishing jack-squat diddly.

    It’s also a good way to conceal doing rather more than the label suggests.  Not to say we don’t need to be doing more.  Just that the need for a “body guard of lies” has disappeared.

  9. 9.

    japa21

    @jackmac: ​
     

    It’s so frustrating that our short attention span, ADHD-driven national media have dropped most Ukraine coverage in favor of reporting on the Israel-Hamas conflagration.

    Hate saying it, but with the exception off a very few places, most coverage of Ukraine had already dropped significantly.

  10. 10.

    Bill Arnold

    You know which other major nuclear power threatened to use all the means at their disposal? [1]
    Hint; it was to prevent deployment of StarLink terminals in Gaza.
    Other means could also include extraterritorial assassination of tech workers and their leadership; that capability has already been extensively demonstrated. That communication minister needs to be de-platformed.

    [1] Responding to Musk’s post on X, Israel’s communication minister Shlomo Karhi said Israel “will use all means at its disposal to fight this.” (Reuters, October 28, 2023)

  12. 12.

    Lyrebird

    @Anoniminous:

    Seems to me thhat if Gen. Zaluzhny had the opinion that Biden hasn’t done much, he would have said so.  Does not come across as a BS-er.  Saying it is not enough, very carefully and with specifics, is not the same.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Martin: The Russian firing rate has been relatively depressed lately, presumably in order to allow them to fire very large salvoes during the winter, in an attempt to revive their Winter 2023 “Freeze them in the dark” theory of victory. Current small salvoes could be attempts to map out Ukrainian air defenses in preparation for that campaign.

    Meanwhile, I expect that the Ukrainians have used the time since February to harden their power infrastructure and beef up supply and manning of electrical infrastructure, using the experience of the last campaign to prepare for this one. I’d lay 2:1 odds that we will see fewer customer-hours of blackout this winter than we did last year.

  14. 14.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: I think Ukraine has more Gephard 30mm anti-aircraft systems. Between that and other means, they seem to have gotten fairly proficient at downing the Shahed drones.

    Iran apparently has not sent Russia any of the more advanced attack drones they like to show off. Or the short range ballistic missiles they were reported to have promised Russia a year ago. I’m not sure why not.

  15. 15.

    wjca

    @Geminid: Iran apparently has not sent Russia any of the more advanced attack drones they like to show off. Or the short range ballistic missiles they were reported to have promised Russia a year ago. I’m not sure why not.

    I would speculate that they have concluded that Russia is going to lose this war.  They will sell low end drones, because their economy is suffering under sanctions, and Russia will pay regardless.  I’d give odds though that they are demanding hard currency, and paid in advance.

    But they are holding back the advanced stuff in the hopes that doing so will give them a chance at forgiveness from the rest of the world down the road.  I’m dubious that this will work, but Iran’s regime is approaching the grasping at straws stage.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Iran is going to keep the more advanced weapons to itself, in case the Israeli-Gaza War escalates into a regional conflagration. Possibly, Iran will be the one who escalates, though recent pronouncements from Hezbollah & Iran does not suggest so.

    Likewise, NK will keep the more advanced weapons & munitions to itself, because it is always paranoid about war w/ SK & the US at any moment.

    As for forgiveness, there are few countries outside of the West that intends to punish or censure Iran for supplying Russia w/ low grade Shahed drones. However, if there is a new deal to push Iran further away from the nuclear threshold, in exchange for sanctions relief, I think the EU & the likes of Japan/SK/AUS will still support that deal. Not sure the reason, whether Iran has sold a limited number of Shahed drones, or Russia could not afford to purchase so many, or Russian industry could not manufacture such low end drones at scale, but they have never been used in enough numbers to be useful at any level. They can only overwhelm AD by sheer numbers, by being much cheaper than the missiles used to shoot them down.

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Zalushnyi interview in the Economist, as well as the article that the general has written for the publication, are quite extraordinary reads. I am extremely impressed by the brutal honesty w/ which he assesses the current state of the war (stalemate), how/why it became so, & how it might be broken. Such honesty is refreshing in this world.

    Shashank Joshi, the defense reporter for the Economist, who conducted the interview, has a Twitter thread summarizing the key points, which is worth reading.

    Even though the content are paywalled, I will post exerts from the interview below under fair use, because they are so illuminating. The article Gen. Zalushnyi has written summarizes the treatise Adam has already shared.

    Ukraine’s top general on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
    General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate
    Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
    The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions.
    An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian defensive lines. “If you look at nato’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops and equipment get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust, in the south, where newly formed and inexperienced brigades, despite being equipped with modern Western kit, immediately ran into trouble.
    “First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the commander told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student in a military academy in Ukraine. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P. S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
    That thesis, he says, was borne out as he went to the front line in Avdiivka, also in the east, where Russia has recently advanced by a few hundred metres over several weeks by throwing in two of its armies. “On our monitor screens the day I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze—destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery.” Those fleeing were chased by “first-person-view” drones, remote-controlled and carrying explosive charges that their operators simply crash into the enemy. The same picture unfolds when Ukrainian troops try to advance. General Zaluzhny describes a battlefield in which modern sensors can identify any concentration of forces, and modern precision weapons can destroy it. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.
    …
    Western allies have been overly cautious in supplying Ukraine with their latest technology and more powerful weapons. Joe Biden, America’s president, set objectives at the start of Russia’s invasion: to ensure that Ukraine was not defeated and that America was not dragged into confrontation with Russia. This means that arms supplied by the West have been sufficient in sustaining Ukraine in the war, but not enough to allow it to win. General Zaluzhny is not complaining: “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts.”
    But by holding back the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, the West allowed Russia to regroup and build up its defences in the aftermath of a sudden breakthrough in Kharkiv region in the north and in Kherson in the south late in 2022. “These systems were most relevant to us last year, but they only arrived this year,” he says. Similarly, f-16 jets, due next year, are now less helpful, suggests the general, in part because Russia has improved its air defences: an experimental version of the s-400 missile system can reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns.
    Yet the delay in arms deliveries, though frustrating, is not the main cause of Ukraine’s predicament, according to General Zaluzhny. “It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he insists. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.” It is, instead, technology that will be decisive, he argues. The general is enthused by recent conversations with Eric Schmidt, the former chief executive of Google, and stressed the decisive role of drones, and of electronic warfare which can prevent them from flying.
    …
    Crimea, he believes, remains Mr Putin’s greatest vulnerability. It is the linchpin of his imperial restoration project, and his legitimacy rests on having brought it back to Russia. Over the past few months, Ukraine has taken the war into the peninsula Mr Putin annexed in 2014 and which remains critical to the logistics of his war. “It must know that it is part of Ukraine and that this war is happening there.” On October 30th Ukraine struck Crimea with American-supplied long-range atacms missiles for the first time.
    …
    A collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support is precisely what Mr Putin is counting on. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, a country with a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine’s. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now, General Zaluzhny says, he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”■

    I don’t think Zalushnyi is engaging in some 11 dimension chess trying to lull the Russians into complacency, in advance of a renewed surprise Ukrainian assault. Analyses from the likes of Tatarigami_UA suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are probably not in a position to relaunch a general offensive any time soon.

    As Shashank Joshi suggests in his Twitter thread, I do think the general may be falling for a bit of techno-supremacy hopes, & frankly I find his positive comments wrt Eric Schmidt rather alarming. A number of US analysts on defense & technology that I follow have all panned Schmidt for successfully selling snake oil to the Trump & Biden Administrations on the supposed incipient supremacy of AI on the battlefield, a new revolution in warfare. His argument is what has driven the two administrations to classify AI related technologies as a core natsec concern, to commence a tech war w/ the PRC to slow down the latter’s advancement in AI, irrespective of  the damage to technological advancements in both countries from the cut off of collaboration, the impact to civilian economies, & the prospect of heightening geopolitical rivalry to dangerous levels. In the meantime, Schmidt stands to profit handsomely from his investments into AI startups that are favored to win DOD contracts.

    I think Zalushnyi’s perspective is also understandably limited by his experience in Ukraine. We are at stalemate because neither side has [enough] access to the air power and precision strike capabilities to break the stalemate. Neither side could mount the sustained strike campaigns that would sufficiently disrupt the C&C & logistical support of the opposing army. Ukraine is constrained by lack of adequate qty of PGMs, Russia is constrained by inadequate precision, period. Neither side is [yet] sufficiently proficient in combined arms operations to breach prepared defenses in depth. The ubiquitous presence of drones poses significant problems to both sides, but I wonder if neither side has sufficiently advanced & vertically integrated electronics & microelectronics industries & ecosystems to development sufficiently effective solutions quickly.

    NATO militaries (especially the US) should be much stronger in all of these respects, though inadequate munitions stockpile could be a problem in a peer level war. The Chinese PLA probably has the weapons systems & sufficient munitions stockpile (as well as the industrial capacity to quickly replenish), but perhaps is still constrained by immature tactics & doctrine. In any case, a war in the vast expanses of the Western Pacific will be very different. Both sides can disrupt each other’s space borne assets & threaten each other’s airborne surveillance platforms. Both sides (including TW) have strong IADSs that are difficult & costly to suppress, but both also possess the stealthy aircrafts penetrate the IADSs. Cheap short ranged consumer drones are irrelevant in the Western Pacific & the 1st Island Chain, except in a ground campaign on TW. I am not sure any military in the world right now have the appreciation that Ukrainian & Russian militaries have for the disruptive impact that cheap & ubiquitous consumer grade drones have on land warfare, but I think other countries can respond very quickly once they are bloodied by these drones, too, especially the East Asian countries where there is mature, expansive, & vertically integrated electronics industries.

    The Hamas assault into Israel also offers a counterpoint to Zalushnyi’s arguments. The IDF thought it had ISR & EW dominance over Hamas. It had established an elaborate system of automated surveillance posts & machine nests covering most of the border. It has firepower dominance. While there were no minefields or trenches, the border fence should have slowed down any Hamas attack composed of light infantry. IDF border outposts were still fortified. Nevertheless, Hamas employed highly innovative tactics, utilizing consumer grade technologies, took out the border surveillance & machine gun nests in quick succession, blinded the IDF to what was happening along the fence, suppressed IDF comms, took advantage of the act that the IDF was undermanned in the south. The 1st Hamas assault teams through the wire went straight for the IDF command center for the Gaza area, destroying it, which further discombobulated the initial Israeli response.

    Therefore, I think the technological developments that Zalushnyi attributes to for leading to the current stalemate in Ukraine can be overcome, & it does not require a fantastic revolution such as AI. However, Ukraine does need things that he spoke of: plenty of precision munitions of longer ranges, & a greater variety of platforms to launch them from, better mine clearing equipment & innovative methods, & better EW to suppress the ubiquitous drones.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Duane: I agree.   Those who don’t  wanna read, can scroll-up.  Part of what we come here for  is the serendipitous expertise of some of the commenters here.

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