Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Republicans in disarray!

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

The problem people have with Biden’s age is the color of the VPs skin.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Come on, man.

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 621: Fog of War Inside a Residence

War for Ukraine Day 621: Fog of War Inside a Residence

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Before we get underway, I want to put this reply comment of mine from last night up here at the top of tonight’s update in regard to where things stand for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion:

As I’ve written several times: This is going to be slow going. It will often look or seem frozen until it isn’t. The Ukrainians are not going to stop. And we have been far too slow to give them what they need and then we second guess them doing as well as they are despite us tying one of their arms behind their back.

General Zaluzhnyi’s aide de camp, Major Hennadiy Chastyakov, has been killed by a grenade that went off in his home. Because of the fog of war/imprecision of reporting of fast moving events in a state that is at war, this has been reported as everything from an assassination to under investigation to what it actually was: a stupid user error. Major Chastyakov took a box of grenades, took a grenade out of the box, and was showing it to his son when the grenade went off.

Here’s a machine translation of Interior Minister Klymenko’s thread:

Ihor Klymenko:

The tragedy in Chayki is beginning to be overgrown with various information from “sources”. Therefore, I officially announce:

As a result of primary investigative actions, it was possible to find out the first circumstances of the tragedy. Today was the birthday of the deceased major Chastyakov.

He returned home from work with gifts from his colleagues
began to show relatives.

He took out a gift box with grenades inside and started showing one of the ammunition to his son. These were grenades of the new Western model.

First, the son took the ammunition and started turning the ring. Then the serviceman took the grenade from the child and pulled out the ring, provoking a tragic explosion.

The police found 5 more such unexploded grenades in the apartment. They will be sent for examination.

The police found a fellow soldier who gave a fatal gift. His office was already searched and 2 similar grenades were seized. Primary investigative actions are ongoing.

I urge you not to spread unofficial information.

The pre-trial investigation is ongoing, wait for the official conclusions of the investigation

This was a unfortunate, but preventable accident. If you see anyone claiming this was an assassination, which is misinformation, bonk them. Then bonk them again.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The battle that determines the fate of the state and people is now underway; it is not the right time for elections – address by the President of Ukraine

6 November 2023 – 21:06

Fellow Ukrainians!

I held a meeting of the Staff. The first issue was related to the tragedy with the servicemen of our 128th separate mountain assault brigade. The military, the Minister of Defense, and the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine delivered reports. The specifics – what has already been figured out about the circumstances of the tragedy, whose orders entailed the tragedy. In particular, Chief Inspector of the Defense Ministry Voronchenko delivered a report. The brigade commander has been suspended for the time of investigation. The whole situation is being analyzed minute by minute. And it will be found out who exactly violated the rules on the safety of people in the area accessible to enemy aerial reconnaissance. There will be no avoidance of responsibility.

The second issue at the Staff meeting was, of course, the reports by the Commander-in-Chief and the commanders on the directions of the main battles. The report of the intelligence. Our offensive actions. Our defensive actions. Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Kherson are the main focal points today. And our operations in the Black Sea. By the way, I thank everyone who ensured the successful targeting of the Russian warship at the Kerch shipyard. This is significant – another source of Russian terror against Ukraine has been eliminated. The Ministry of Strategic Industries and the Ministry of Defense reported on the supply of weapons and equipment to our brigades, the dynamics of defense production in Ukraine, and the fulfillment of contracts and agreements with partners. And I am grateful to all our friends in the world who help Ukraine with reliable, long-term support that strengthens us strategically.

We are preparing for international events in November: today I held a meeting with the team regarding the meetings and negotiations that have already been scheduled. We expect new political activities with the European Union and many other partners in the world, in particular, regarding Ukraine’s global role as a guarantor of food security. The relevant details will be announced in the near future.

And one more thing. A very important one.

Last night, Russia struck at Odesa again. Missiles, “Shaheds”. Some of them were shot down. There were also hits. It was a difficult night for Odesa. Constant attacks on Kherson, Kherson region. Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. There was an air raid alert across the whole country today. Everyone should remember what is most important in Ukraine right now. The enemy is insane. And it is powerful. And it wants to destroy Ukraine, just as it has always wanted to.

Now everyone should think about defending our country. We need to pull ourselves together, avoid unwinding and splitting up into disputes or other priorities. The situation is the same now as it was before: if there is no victory, there will be no country. Our victory is possible. It will come if we all focus on it. Not on politicking or searching for some personal interest. Not on disagreements that will do nothing for the country, defense, and our advancement.

The resource of the state, the resource of the budget, the resource of our attention and emotions, the resource of our efforts – all this is needed for our victory. I will say it again. We all see people demanding that budget resources be allocated to help the defense instead of paving and repairing streets. This is the right thing to do. All resources should be used to make Ukraine stronger. We all hear what needs to be changed in the defense forces themselves: it concerns many procedures that are redundant, it concerns many difficulties that our warriors face. Transfers, training, and supply. There are many tasks. And all the relevant structures must deal with them without diverting their energy and efforts to anything else. We all see that now is not the time for grand celebrations or other brazen things in the rear, which are unacceptable in times of war, and even more so when the army, when all our defense forces live with completely different emotions: pain, battles, losses, but also achievements – achievements for Ukraine. And we all understand that now, in wartime, when there are so many challenges, it is absolutely irresponsible to throw the topic of elections into society in a lighthearted and playful way.

I expect all relevant structures and authorities to provide concrete solutions to the challenges that our country is facing today. This applies to the civilian authorities, the military element of the state, the government officials, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and other law enforcement agencies. It also means that the state needs to be much more focused on defense – everyone in the state, and especially at the regional level, in the rear cities that have the resources to help and support. This also applies to ensuring that tragedies like the one that happened to the servicemen of the 128th brigade never happen again. And to the changes our soldiers and commanders expect, especially the guys who were mobilized. And finally, the waves of any politically divisive things must stop. We must realize that now is the time of defense, the time of the battle that determines the fate of the state and people, not the time of manipulations, which only Russia expects from Ukraine. I believe that now is not the right time for elections. And if we need to put an end to a political dispute and continue to work in unity, there are structures in the state that are capable of putting an end to it and giving society all the necessary answers. So that there is no room left for conflicts and someone else’s game against Ukraine.

My personal attitude and call is to take care of our country just as on February 24, to defend it, to destroy the occupier, to fight for the freedom of Ukraine, which is now being gained in the battles for Ukraine.

I thank everyone who helps! Glory to all those who are fighting and working for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

“I have great respect for President Zelensky, but think it would be inappropriate to go to Ukraine at this time,” the Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential elections said in a statement to Newsmax. “The Biden administration is currently dealing with him, and I would not want to create a conflict of interest.”

The excuse Trump has provided is not the reason he is not going to visit Ukraine. There are two reasons he’s not going. The first is that he is an abject coward and despite the fact that he would be in no real physical jeopardy if he visited Kyiv, the thought of going to an active war zone scares him to death. The second is that he knows he will lose the normal dominance contests he engages in with everyone if he has to be in Zelenskyy’s presence. Whatever else anyone might think or say about President Zelenskyy, what they cannot say is that he’s a coward. He routinely makes battlefield circulations to visit with Ukrainian Forces on the front lines, which is something that almost no other world leader would do. Trump hid in the White House secure bunker from demonstrators in DC in 2020 who had no possible chance of getting within half a mile of him.

Avdiivka:

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian losses near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast have included almost 7,000 soldiers killed or wounded, 100 tanks, and 250 other armored vehicles in the past three weeks, the 47th Mechanized Brigade said on Nov. 6.

The unit published a video on its social media showing the destruction of Russian armor in the sector by forces of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, the 110th Mechanized Brigade, and the Presidential Brigade “Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyi.”

Russian forces intensified ground attacks against Avdiivka and surrounding settlements in early October in an effort to encircle the town. The campaign has been supported by heavy shelling and air strikes.

“Russian occupiers are unable to surround Avdiivka thanks to the actions of our defenders,” the 47th Mechanized Brigade said.

The White House assessed that the Kremlin is likely to continue its offensive in the coming months and “may achieve some tactical successes.”

This will, however, come at the cost of thousands of Russian soldiers thrown into battle without proper training and with poor morale, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said.

Kherson:

Kerch shipyards Russian occupied Crimea:

Kupyansk:

That’s enough for tonight.

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From that first picture it appears Patron has been doing a quality assurance/quality control check on the yummies!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

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Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

What would you say to your dog or cat if they could understand you for 5 seconds? 🥹

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

77Comments

  1. 1.

    Tom Levenson

    Thanks, as ever, for the updates, Adam.

    I must say, so much doctrine is going to shift as a result of this war. The near eradication of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s ability to operate along the Ukraine littoral is amazing.

  2. 2.

    Seeker

    What should Ukraine be doing to prepare for Trump’s second term as president? Is there anyway they can continue to hold off Ru under those circumstances?

  3. 3.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Dumb grenade stories, VDE edition: when I was in ROTC summer camp, summer of ’78, there was of course a grenade range.  Well, another group of cadets, not mine, had what they thought was a dud on their range.  Their tactical officer, a Captain who was EOD qualified, got them all on the other side of the barrier between the range and the world, then proceeded to go out to dispose of the “dud”.  Except it turned out it was only a dud in that it did not explode as it was supposed to.  The cadets in question got to experience the trauma of their tactical officer being blown to bits as he was about to throw the “dud” downrange.  My “kitchen mate” at Fort Gordon, the next year (two BOQ rooms shared a kitchen), told me it was his platoon that witnessed this tragic event.

    These things happen in training.  You try to of course avoid them, and what SHOULD have happened is that an EOD crew in full protective gear dealt with the “dud”, but for whatever reason the tactical officer decided to handle it himself.  So an entire platoon of cadets witnessed this, without doubt causing them PTSD.

  4. 4.

    Andrya

    As always, Adam, thanks for doing this.

    I’m extremely sorry about the death of Major Chastyakov, but PEOPLE NEED TO NOT DO THIS!!  I worked for 29 years at a solid propellant rocket factory, and Safety Engineering had to put a lot of effort into making sure that people did not take scrap/extra solid rocket propellant home.  (“Ooh, fireworks!  Mini rockets made with used tin cans!  Fun for the kids!”)  Unfortunately, Safety Engineering did not always succeed, although thankfully no one was hurt.  But a solid propellant fire is much more serious than an ordinary fire, since it has its own built-in oxidizer and ordinary fire-fighting techniques may not work.  MILITARY ORDNANCE ARE NOT TOYS!

    About Trump’s refusal to visit Ukraine:   he hasn’t forgiven Zelenskyy for not sabotaging Biden in the 2020 election.  Plus, it appears that TIFG has literally no idea what a conflict of interest is.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Seeker: They’ve most likely done all they can do. What they could not achieve is to get everything from the US they possibly could front loaded. This is the other part of the problem with the Biden administration’s decision to dribble out support, it fails to account for the very real possibility that Trump could be reelected in November 2024. Just as it failed to account for the very real possibility that the Republicans would retake the House in November 2022.

    If Trump is reelected, and he has at least the same 30% chance he had when elected in 2016 and when he lost in 2020, he will pull the US out of NATO and make it explicitly clear to Putin that he can do whatever he wants in Russia and Europe, especially in the parts of the EU and NATO that were part of the Soviet Union. If that happens then I expect the Baltic states and Poland will likely enter the war on the side of Ukraine. Finland would also be a possibility to do so. Whether that splits NATO minus the US or not, I don’t know, but I expect it would.

    The Biden administration’s risk aversion is already biting them on the ass both domestically and internationally because of the Israel-Hamas war. I expect it will also do so in regard to Ukraine, though, in that case, Ukraine will be the loser.

  8. 8.

    gene108

    I keep reading about Russian losses, but has any European nation ever won a war of attrition against Russia?

    Political revolution caused Russia to accept Germany’s terms in WW1. Otherwise Russia has neatly inexhaustible natural resources and a large enough population to replace losses versus other European nations.

    If the war in Ukraine continues as a slow grind, can Ukraine outlast Russia?

  10. 10.

    Andrya

    @gene108:   No, but in previous wars of attrition against russia (Napoleon, Hitler) it was not a war of choice for russia- Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany were the aggressors.  I am hoping that in a war of choice, russian tolerance for extreme casualties will be less.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @gene108: No one has that I know of.

    Ukraine’s resources are much more limited than Russia’s. Which is part of Putin’s strategic calculus. That he can afford – as in he has the bodies he can throw into combat to get killed or wounded – to continue the war until US politics changes the political geography he is dealing with.

    It is not that Ukraine has the resources to outlast Russia, they don’t. What they have is societal resilience that is near unheard of. Regardless of the resource constraints they will not give in, nor give up.

  13. 13.

    japa21

    The second is that he knows he will lose the normal dominance contests he engages in with everyone if he has to be in Zelenskyy’s presence. Whatever else anyone might think or say about President Zelenskyy, what they cannot say is that he’s a coward.

    Pretty much the same reason Bibi refused to have Zelenskyy visit Israel.

    I do have trouble with the term “stalemate”. Both sides are still attempting offensive tactics, with Ukraine’s being a little more effective than Russia’s. As has been pointed out many times, drones have changed everything in this war, far more than anticipated even 8-10 months ago.

    I don’t want to get into what should have been done or what could have been done because we can’t go back in time. Mistakes have been made, both here and in Ukraine. But until there is a way to counteract drones more efficiently than there is now, it may not be a stalemate, but things will bog down. So I have to believe that there is some serious counter-drone research being done on both sides.

  14. 14.

    Mike in DC

    I don’t think that Russia can hang in there indefinitely,  actually.   Their equipment stocks–Tanks, helicopters, artillery tubes, shells and AFV–are being depleted faster than their rate of replacement.    The flow of equipment to Ukraine can be sped up, and the defensive lines can be analyzed and attacked in a more efficient and effective manner.

    This doesn’t have to be a frozen conflict, and decisive action by Ukraine,  the US and the West can break the deadlock. It remains to be seen whether it will happen.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    If the U.S./West pulls support, I am sure Ukraine will shift focus to an insurgency in the Russian occupied territories, & hope that when Putin dies the Russian population & the elites would by then be sick of the occupation & decide to leave. Ukraine will likely still draw strong support from the CEE countries & the Baltic states, but they do not have as much advanced weaponry to offer for the conventional war.

  19. 19.

    Alison Rose

    I have great respect for President Zelensky

    Objection: Assumes facts not in evidence.

    Lying cowardly sack of shit. I kind of hope the Biden campaign makes a point of this, or maybe Meidas Touch or whoever. A comparison of Biden walking through Kyiv with Zelenskyy and Trump’s mendacious bullshit to cover up the fact that, as Adam said, he 1) is too scared, and 2) doesn’t want to be shown up by Ze, which he absolutely would be. I know Trump thinks “I’m taller therefore I’m better” but he isn’t even 1/100th of the man Zelenskyy is.

    Here’s the full interview he did with MtP if anyone’s interested. I haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, and I dislike Welker, but I still want to check it out.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    @gene108:

    has any European nation ever won a war of attrition against Russia?

    Afghanistan is not European, but they (not just one polity, though) did effectively beat the Russians, and the loss contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

  26. 26.

    Roberto el oso

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks so much for your expertise, Adam. Your work ethic is something to behold.

    “I expect the Baltic states and Poland will likely enter the war on the side of Ukraine. Finland would also be a possibility to do so.”

    This is something I have thought about for a while and yours is the first take that has put it so clearly and succintly.

  28. 28.

    karen marie

    Major Chastyakov took a box of grenades, took a grenade out of the box, and was showing it to his son when the grenade went off.

    I’m sorry but WTF?

    Sounds like Darwin’s Law at work.

    His poor son. Assuming he wasn’t also killed.

  29. 29.

    PJ

    @gene108: Russia had two revolutions in 1917 because their army, and country, was falling apart due to a war of attrition.  They also got their ass whupped by the Japanese in 1905, and in Crimea 50 years before.  Per Stalin, they would have lost WWII without enormous shipments of materiel from the US under lend-lease.  This is not to sneeze at their natural resources or the bodies they can throw at the front lines, but my understanding is that technologically and economically speaking, they are not a first world country.

  31. 31.

    coin operated

    @Adam L Silverman:

    If that happens then I expect the Baltic states and Poland will likely enter the war on the side of Ukraine. Finland would also be a possibility to do so.

    If there were ever a time I had saved a xitter link, this would be it.  Someone was interviewing a Finnish defense official and asked “How long would it take you to get to Moscow?”  He replied “about a week…but that’s only if the Poles don’t get there first”

    Poland is building the largest mechanized force in Europe…I get the sense that they, at least, are reading the tea leaves of US politics

    ETA…thank you for all you do Adam.

  32. 32.

    Martin

    Today is my birthday, and I would like to extend my most deepfelt thanks to each of you that did not send me grenades as a gift. Thankfully I am of the age that all I want my birthday to be is a day that nobody reminds me it’s my birthday, but where I can day drink without intrusive thoughts of responsibility.

    And not be burdened with gift grenades, something I didn’t until just now realize I needed to add to my birthday conditions.

  34. 34.

    Adam L Silverman

    @coin operated: Unless he’s rotated out since the last time I looked, which is when entirely possible, the Polish general in charge of that is my former student.

  41. 41.

    Another Scott

    @coin operated: Made me look… but I couldn’t find it.  I did find this:

    Make_the_music_stop
    •
    2 yr. ago

    It is 1939 and a Soviet army is marching on Finland. As they pass the border, they hear a Finnish voice over the hill;

    “One Finnish soldier is better than 10 Soviet soldiers!”

    The Soviet general laughs, as he sends 10 men on the hill to capture it.

    There is gunfire for a minute and then everything goes silent for a moment, and they then hear the same voice;

    “One Finnish soldier is better than a hundred of yours!”

    Annoyed, the Soviet general sends hundred men to capture the hill. There is gunfire and bombs going for ten minutes, and everything goes silent again. Suddenly, the same voice yells out;

    “One Finnish soldier is better than thousand of Soviet soldiers!”

    Enraged, the general sends a thousand men, accompanied with tanks, artillery, mortar teams, and tells them to not return until the hill is theirs.

    For half an hour hell breaks loose, bombs and explosions, gunfire, screams and death all around, and then it goes silent again.

    One Soviet soldier crawls back, severely wounded and battered.

    Before the general could say anything, the soldier says; “Do not send more troops, comrade general, it’s a trap! There is two of them.”

    (Apparently there are other national variations. ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  42. 42.

    Martin

    Israel will have the “overall security responsibility” in Gaza for an “indefinite period” after the war ends, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on ABC News.

    I’m old enough to remember when Russia took overall security responsibility in Crimea for an indefinite period of time. And it was absurd to assert they had any intention of annexing the region.

  43. 43.

    coin operated

    @Another Scott: I’ve seen variations of that same story…they always make me smile.  That said…the article/tweet/post I was reading was definitely in regards to the current hostilities.

  46. 46.

    Gin & Tonic

    Historical note re the ship Askold. Askold is a Scandinavian name, equivalent to the Norse Haskuldr or Höskuldr. The person, Askold, was the first Norse ruler of Kyiv, according to the Primary Chronicle, but was killed by Oleh (or Oleg) the Wise as part of a battle for control of the Rurikid/Ryurikid dynasty, which then controlled Kyiv until the Mongols came. Askold’s grave is a popular sight in Kyiv, on the right bank of the Dnipro.

  47. 47.

    Gin & Tonic

    Sorry, you’ll have to click through to Twitter to get this, but it’s worth it.

    Vokzalna Street in Bucha as we saw it in the early days of April 2022.
    The tweet below shows what this very street looks like today 👇 pic.twitter.com/UGOl5U8pBV
    — Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 6, 2023

  50. 50.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Manyakitty: I’ll post it tomorrow. It’s a two tweet thread with Bucha after it was retaken in 2022 and now that it’s been rebuilt in 2023.

  57. 57.

    MaryLou

    Adam,  I wish you had a job inside the Biden administration where you could deliver your insights and recommendations direct to the commander-in-chief. It’s not too late to get a LOT more aggressive in our Ukraine policy.

  58. 58.

    Adam L Silverman

    @MaryLou: Not going to happen. Someone who is very close to the President, known him for 40 years professionally and personally, handed my CV to him with a recommendation. Four of my retired GO former bosses passed my CV to the DOD transition lead with their personal recommendations. I was on the list the Congressional Black Caucus was asked to turn in to the admin of people for political appointments – this was a the result of my policy work on getting the bases renamed. I made sure to apply through the transition site as that was required. I’ve never so much gotten even a rejection email.

    It is not going to happen. I turned down an appointment when approached about one in 2017 from the one retired senior leader I know that was involved in the Trump transition. I’m not part of the right set of people for the Biden admin. It will not happen. Not now, not if Biden gets reelected. It is just not in the cards.

    I will live.

  59. 59.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Wow, that is so disheartening to read. Did you ever find out why you are not though of as part of the “right” set of people for the Biden Administration? Is it because you had not rubbed shoulders w/ enough of them in the right think tanks, promoting the “right” policies, while they parked themselves waiting out the Trump Administration

    Publishing your honest takes here & elsewhere certainly won’t help.

  61. 61.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: There’s a club, I’m not in it. My contacts are in it, but the people brought in all either have long relationships with the President or with the people who have these long relationships. I don’t have any of that.

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Perhaps there would be better possibilities in an administration were the POTUS is relatively young & something of an outsider, & has not had the opportunity to develop a club of intimate advisors across all policy spheres. Such as the Obama Administration.

  64. 64.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Nope. They’re all pulling from the same pool of people. All of whom have their own protégés that also have to be employed. As the mentors age out, the protégés take over the senior slots and their protégés take the more junior ones. It’s a closed system. One that I have no way into.

    i had a way into the Trump admin because they needed senior experienced people and didn’t have a longstanding bench of people at all. I decided that I would be bad fit for a variety of reasons and politely told my contact, who had approached me, why I didn’t think it would be a good idea.

    it is what it is.

  66. 66.

    YY_Sima Qian

    From CNN’s NatSec Reporter, Alex Marquardt:

    On Israeli efforts to minimize civilian casualties, NSC’s John Kirby says: “We have seen some indications that there are there are efforts being applied in certain scenarios to try to minimize, but I don’t want to overstate that.”

    It seems like the Biden Administration is caught in a rhetorical & policy cul-de-sac wrt the war in Gaza.

  68. 68.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Twitter thread by ChrisO_wiki on a gruesome crime committed by 2 Russian soldiers in the Russian occupied DNR, slaughtering (under the influence of alcohol) an entire Ukrainian family due to some kind of dispute:

    1/ Two Russian soldiers arrested for the massacre of a Ukrainian family of nine have been named as 21-year-old Anton Sopov (r) and 28-year-old Stanislav Rau (l), both from the Russian Far Eastern region of Primorsky Krai. Relatives have expressed shock at their alleged crimes.

    …

    Unrolled in ThreadReader:

    1/ Two Russian soldiers arrested for the massacre of a Ukrainian family of nine have been named as 21-year-old Anton Sopov (r) and 28-year-old Stanislav Rau (l), both from the Russian Far Eastern region of Primorsky Krai. Relatives have expressed shock at their alleged crimes. ⬇️
    2/ The two soldiers are reported to be serving as volunteer contract soldiers of the 155th Separate Guards Order of Zhukov Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Both men are reportedly debtors with previous criminal records and had joined the army to pay off their debts.
    3/ The two served with the Wagner Group prior to the Prigozhin mutiny, and subsequently joined the Russian Army. They were photographed in August with the governor of the Kamchatka Territory, Vladimir Solodov, who gave them awards and a cuddly toy mascot.
    4/ The men reportedly fought as part of a Storm Z detachment at Novomaiorske, west of Vuhledar and not far from Volnovakha where the killings took place. Sopov, whose call sign was ‘Chemist’, was publicised in propaganda stories in RT and Izvestia and was filmed carrying the toy.
    5/ They are said to have admitted that they “only wanted to get even with the men – Eduard [Kapkanets] and his son Alexander, who allegedly offended them.” They claim to have killed the women and children “by accident, as they could not recognize the victims in the dark.”
    6/ According to Russian law enforcement sources, the suspects also admitted that they had been afraid of leaving witnesses behind. A source says that they may have used silenced Val or Vintorez rifles to commit the crime. Shell casings left behind were traced to army supplies.
    7/ None of the neighbours heard or saw anything, and the investigation was made harder by the lack of video surveillance in the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’. However, one of the suspects was renting a room near the victim’s house and stored a motorcycle in the yard.
    8/ According to Kommersant, the soldiers may have been drunk at the time of the killing. Several alternative motives have been put forward by local people. One is that Eduard Kapkanets had made a provocative remark to one of the men a few hours earlier.
    9/ The soldiers reportedly “came to the district shop to buy vodka, being already in a state of heavy drinking, and their visit did not please the local customers.”
    10/ Another version suggests that Eduard and Alexander Kapkanets were themselves selling alcohol and the dispute arose over payment for the goods. By nightfall, Kommersant says, the soldiers were completely drunk and went to the house on a motorcycle to kill the whole family.
    11/ Although there were initially claims that the Russian authorities would try to cover up the killings, they appear to have been too gruesome and outrageous to ignore. The investigation was rapid and apparently quickly effective.
    12/ Rau’s brother says he is “in complete shock, I can’t believe it. I think the war has knocked his head off.” Some of Rau’s relatives reportedly believe that he has been framed and several ‘patriotic’ Russian Telegram channels have posted messages in his support.
    13/ The killings highlight the harmful effect that the widespread abuse of alcohol is having on discipline in the Russian army. It may also not be a coincidence that the suspects are ex-Wagner fighters and current Storm Z members, likely having had very traumatic experiences.

  70. 70.

    Procopius

    When I was working in the G-2 office of the 3rd Armored Division, in Frankfurt, we had an accident where a soldier and his instructor were killed on the grenade range.  It is not easy to kill yourself with a grenade. Despite what you see in the movies, you aren’t going to be pulling the safety pins out with your teeth. If you drop it, every grenade training position has a “sump,” a hole in the ground you can kick the grenade into, so death by grenade is rare. However, fuses are mass produced, and sometimes defective, so if you pull the pin, let the “spoon” fly off, and hold it for three or four seconds, you may still be holding it when it goes off. Has the possibility of suicide been investigated? As another poster asked above, “Who gives grenades as a present?”

  71. 71.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    @Seeker: They’ve most likely done all they can do. What they could not achieve is to get everything from the US they possibly could front loaded. This is the other part of the problem with the Biden administration’s decision to dribble out support, it fails to account for the very real possibility that Trump could be reelected in November 2024. Just as it failed to account for the very real possibility that the Republicans would retake the House in November 2022.

    This.

    I was saying at the very beginning of this war that we needed to send as much support to Ukraine as we possibly could as quickly as we possibly could, because if the Republicans retook enough levers of power in 2022 or 2024, it was game over for Ukraine.  So naturally we dribbled out support instead, and now here we are.

  72. 72.

    Chris

    @gene108:

    I’m not sure why you don’t want to count World War One.  “Political revolution caused WW1 Russia to accept Germany’s terms…”  In other words, Germany and Russia stood there pounding away at each other for a few years, and the Russian system collapsed under the strain first.  That’s what winning a war of attrition is.

    (This is all the more impressive because Germany was simultaneously engaged in war with two other first tier powers, Britain and France, and not just on the Western Front but in Africa as well.  Russia only had the one front to fight on, and they still couldn’t do it.  Germany beat them with one hand tied behind its back).

  73. 73.

    Halteclere

    I am not familiar with grenade operation, only know what I see in the movies. Do modern grenades have handles that have to be released? Or is pulling the pin what sets in motion the events that lead to detonation?

  74. 74.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The Trump admin seems to have had a lot of people who agreed to serve in it because they thought they could do some good in keeping the administration on the straight and narrow, only to come out of it with dirt all over them and not much to show for it.  It’s not universal, but it’s widespread enough that… at least looking from the outside, it looks like you made the right call.  I’m glad you didn’t end up like one of those guys.

  76. 76.

    agorabum

    @gene108: When has Russia won a war of attrition by itself?  It lost WW1.  In WW2 it needed Lend-Lease help and a second front (third front if you count Italy, 4th front if you count the air war).  Napoleon beat Russia every time up to 1812, and then Russia relied on a scorched earth retreat all the way from the Nieman River.  It was bad logistics and winter that did in Napoleon so far from his supply base, not mere attrition.

  77. 77.

    Chris

    @agorabum:

    In WW2 it needed Lend-Lease help and a second front (third front if you count Italy, 4th front if you count the air war).

    5th front if you count the submarine warfare in the North Atlantic?

    Napoleon beat Russia every time up to 1812, and then Russia relied on a scorched earth retreat all the way from the Nieman River. It was bad logistics and winter that did in Napoleon so far from his supply base, not mere attrition.

    It’s funny.  They (and their Western fanboys) try to take things like their scorched earth retreats, and burning Moscow, and retreating endlessly until the enemy’s overextended themselves, and make them sound like they’re assets, some sort of badass “honey badger don’t care!” merit badge…

    But WTF does it say about you if your go-to strategy when you’re invaded is “lose, lose, keep losing, burn down every single thing in your country before the invader has a chance to burn it first, and hope he chokes on the smoke and flying rubble before you do?”  For any remotely functioning country, the normal response to an invasion is to stop them cold at the border, and if you can’t do that, then as soon as possible after the border.  The fact that for Russia, “as soon as possible after the border” has repeatedly ended up meaning “at the gates of Moscow, sometimes even after the gates of Moscow” is… not a compliment to their military skills, to put it mildly.  This sort of thing is forgivable in a lot of cases if you’re a small and underpopulated country facing a much larger enemy and you don’t have the geography to make up for it; but none of that applies to Russia.  The failure there is 100% on their inability to run an effective military.  (In the nineteenth century, in the twentieth century, and apparently now in the twenty-first).

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