(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Yesterday Russia opened up on Odesa:
What Russia can't steal, it destroys. Odesa Art Museum after massive Russian attack. Today, November 6, the museum turns 124 years old. pic.twitter.com/bESr0C8MZp
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 6, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine means strengthening of the entire European community for the EU – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
7 November 2023 – 22:08
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is mostly a day of meetings. I have recently finished a meeting with the intelligence. It was a meeting in a narrow circle, very sensitive issues of protecting our people were discussed. Details will be available later.
I also held a meeting on international events and our Ukrainian events that are expected in November. This month is both the anniversary of the beginning of the Revolution of Dignity and the anniversary of the Holodomor. There will be various components of government work, including an international component. Everything is being prepared.
Special attention – and this is daily attention – is paid to relations with the European Union. Tomorrow is an important day. We are expecting the EU’s historic conclusion – a report on Ukraine’s implementation of the European Commission’s recommendations. We are already preparing our next steps after this report. Our legislative work, strengthening of state institutions. Ukraine has already come a long way in its rapprochement with the European Union, and our country is fully aware that becoming a member of the European Union is a political decision of all the countries that are already in the community and want to see a new state in the European Union, but it is also the work of the state itself.
Our work is to bring EU standards and community practices closer to Ukraine and adopt them. Ukraine will be in the EU. And we will achieve this, in particular, through the transformation of our country – an internal transformation that is absolutely in the interests of our people. For Ukraine, the EU means economic security and social stability, and for the EU, Ukraine means strengthening of the entire community. And it is very important that deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine continue to support the legislative initiatives necessary for our European integration.
As usual, I started the day with a conference call. The most important was the report that additional NASAMS air defense systems had been deployed. And that’s not all. Ukraine’s sky shield will be further reinforced. I am grateful to the partners who help and to our entire team working in the international area.
Of course, I was in touch with the Minister of Defense and the commanders throughout the day. Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Avdiivka, Melitopol direction, the whole south. We have results worth noting. The 108th separate mountain assault battalion of the 10th brigade, the 3rd battalion of the 54th brigade, the 92nd separate assault brigade, our artillerymen of the 26th, 40th and 55th separate artillery brigades, the “Seventy-ninth” air assault brigade, the 53rd and 110th separate mechanized brigades, the 3rd operational brigade of the National Guard and the 132nd separate reconnaissance battalion. Warriors, I thank you all for your strength! Your strength, the strength of everyone who is fighting for Ukraine, everyone who is helping, is the lifeblood of our people. Ukraine will prevail and be free. And it will be equal among equals in our common European home.
Glory to Ukraine!
Additional NASAMS air defense systems have been put on combat duty — President @ZelenskyyUa
We are grateful to our partners for the timely reinforcement of our air defense before winter.#StandWithUkraine
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 7, 2023
Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs has some important thoughts:
We have the guns.
We have the jets.
We have the bombs.
And yet… we hesitate to help the heroes to finish the job.
We know Putin is planning a victory parade.
We shouldn’t be planning to walk away from a win.— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) November 7, 2023
Tatarigami breaks down how US funding to Ukraine works, where the money actually goes, and what oversight is actually taking place. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.
A great memo clarifying the facts about US aid to Ukraine, expertly debunking myths with a direct approach. Written by @LukeDCoffey for the US think-tank @HudsonInstitute. Here are the key points from "Fourteen Facts about US Aid to Ukraine."
🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/cT6GDCMh26— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 7, 2023
– The US is not writing “blank checks” to Ukraine, and most of the money allocated to help Ukraine never leaves the US. About $70 billion of authorized aid for Ukraine stays in the US, backing the top-tier defense industry and generating well-paying jobs in 38 states.– There has never been more accountability for US military assistance than what is available for Ukraine aid. After Russia’s invasion, the US government formed the Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group, with over 160 officials from 20 federal agencies overseeing US aid.– For a modest amount of money, US aid helps Ukraine dismantle Russia’s armed forces without a single American firing a shot or being shot at. Up to 300,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and the original invasion force from February 2022 doesn’t exist– A victorious Ukraine means a safer Taiwan. In the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, “The security of the Indo-Pacific region is inseparable from European security.”– European stability, which Russia is trying to undermine, affects the American worker. The US and Europe are each other’s biggest export markets. In 2022, 45 out of 50 states, including California, the largest single-state economy, shipped more goods to Europe than to China.– The lessons the US learns from Ukraine will make America stronger in the Indo-Pacific. Supporting Ukraine revealed existing flaws in the American defense industry, which the US is now addressing. Fortunately, these issues came to light when the US was not engaged in a war.– Ukraine is not a new “forever war.” Ukrainians don’t seek or desire US troops to fight Russia. They simply request resources, which the US can readily supply.– Claims that US aid to Ukraine costs “$900 per American household” and that the proposed aid will add “over $1,000” to the tax burden of “every family of four in America” are highly misleading. These figures mislead since federal income tax is not uniformly applied to householdsKindly share this thread. For the list of sources, visit the website and check out the PDF version.The Fourteen Facts about US Aid to UkraineView PDF Since Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in eight years, Russian troops have ravaged Ukraine’s cities, raped its women, and stolen its children. Russian missiles and Iranian drones st…https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/fourteen-facts-about-us-aid-support-cost-ukraine-luke-coffey
My fault here as well… Should have done myself instead of waiting for someone else to do it
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 7, 2023
You know how it goes – if it didn’t go viral on social media, it never happened 😅
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 7, 2023
The reason:
The memories of battles fade away in the tender embrace of children.
📹: @MVS_UA pic.twitter.com/Eu9W6MbPfN
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 7, 2023
Donetsk Oblast:
Ukrainian strike against a facility in the temporarily occupied Donetsk carried out today with HIMARS. According to Ukrainian sources, a UAV pilot “school” was destroyed. Some also mention that the facility (building) was used to host informational operations. pic.twitter.com/q2VJRKekh6
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 7, 2023
Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:
Russian military bloggers apparently noticed a Ukrainian BTR-4E crossing the Dnieper yesterday to join the foothold established in Krynky, on the left bank. They are saying this is the first sighting of heavy vehicles in the area.https://t.co/DUUNO7MYuB pic.twitter.com/dCp3YYUPMP
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 7, 2023
While the Western magazines are competing in doomposting, Ukrainians continue stretching Russian defences and striking their targets. Just a week ago, Ukrainians were still trying to get a foothold in Krynky, a settlement of a slightly unusual shape. Today, they're already… pic.twitter.com/FO73oUDI79
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 7, 2023
Here’s the screen grab of Dmitri’s translation:
Not the best mood among the occupiers near the Dnieper.https://t.co/gcxTKalf1X pic.twitter.com/lcbFXJCvmB
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 7, 2023
Crimea:
🧵First, he built a bridge to Crimea. The war broke out and it turned out to be quite vulnerable. Now, one of his companies is constructing a railway line from Crimea to Russia, as an alternative route. You know the guy: Arkady Rotenberg, one of Putin's closest friends. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/3hfd4aVMUU
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) November 7, 2023
From Radio Free Europe’s/Radio Liberty’s Radio Svoboda: (machine translation)
In early October 2023, OSINT analysts noticed on satellite imagery traces of the construction of a new railway from Donetsk to Mariupol. A month later, on November 6, the governor of the partially occupied Zaporizhzhya region of Ukraine, Yevgeny Balitsky, appointed by Russia, made a statement from which it can be assumed, that this road will be part of a longer journey bypassing the bridge across the Kerch Strait. One of the construction contractors, as Radio Liberty found out, is a company associated with Putin’s friend Arkady Rotenberg, who received the title Hero of Labor for “contribution to the construction of the Crimean bridge”.
Balitsky told reporters about the construction of the railway line from Akimovka (a village about 30 kilometers south of Melitopol) to Rostov-on-Don via Berdyansk and Mariupol, noting that “the construction of the project has already begun by Donetsk”. Part of the new branch, Donetsk section – Mariupol, as told Radio Liberty a month ago will allow you to push the road from the front line and improve the supply of Russian troops in the south. The same with the mentioned Balitsky Akimovka: a straight branch from it to Berdyansk will be south of the existing one, which goes through located just 20 kilometers from the Tokmak front line.
Along with this, as before found out Radio Liberty, Russia is building a new highway from Mariupol to Rostov-on-Don in parallel with the seashore and the current road, but bypassing settlements.
The general scheme of the new railway, which should pass through the occupied Ukrainian territories and connect Crimea with Rostov-on-Don, bypassing the bridge over the Kerch Strait, which has been successfully attacked by Ukraine several times. Green color shows the existing sections of the road, yellow – the now constructed Donetsk section – Mariupol, red – the designed section Akimovka – Mariupol:
In October, Radio Liberty managed to find out that one of the contractors for the construction of a new railway in the occupied Donetsk region is Promstroy LLC”, in 2021, selected by the Russian authorities for a pilot project on the use of the labor of prisoners in the construction of BAM and related to the ChOP, sending volunteers to the war in Ukraine. In November, several job sites appeared on job sites announcements, in which another limited liability company, Almaz, is looking for specialists “to carry out the construction of the railway in new territories”.
The place of work in most ads is indicated by Mariupol. LLC “Almaz” requires a geodetic engineer and his assistant, foremen and other specialists, and the deadline for the start of work is the “end of August” already remaining in the past”. The promised salary of the surveyor – “from 250,000 rubles per hand” is more than two times more than the same “Almaz” offers similar specialists in the Saratov region of Russia.
In another vacancies “Almaza” – “personnel specialist / clerk” – the applicant will work in the village of Chermalyk in the occupied part of the Donetsk region of Ukraine. It is located 10 kilometers from the future railway from Donetsk to Mariupol, the ongoing construction of which is clearly visible in satellite imagery.
As Radio Liberty found out, Almaz LLC has recently been associated with the business empire of one of Vladimir Putin’s closest friends Arkady Rotenberg – a person who received an award from the president for the construction of the Crimean bridge, bypassing which a new railway is now being built on the peninsula annexed by Russia.
Escape from sanctions?
From official site Almaz group of companies follows that until 2023 the company was engaged in the extraction of non-metallic minerals (mainly sand) and worked on 5 sand quarries in the Moscow region and the Krasnodar Territory. This year, “A new line of work – the construction of federal roads of federal significance” has been opened in ALMAZ Group of Companies, the website says.
The emergence of this new direction coincided with the entry into the business group of a major construction player – JSC “Roads and Bridges”. 50% of Almaza owns Roads and Bridges JSC since September 13, 2023, at about this time, judging by satellite imagery, the construction of a new railway began in the occupied Donetsk region. The remaining 50% of Almaza”divided into three of its former founders.
JSC “Roads and Bridges” – a relatively young company, it was formed only three years ago. Now it is one of the largest assets of Arkady Rotenberg.
“Roads and Bridges” were formed by the separation into a separate company from the famous Mostotrest”. “Mostotrest” located under control Rotenberg, built the M-11 highway connecting Moscow and St. Petersburg, infrastructure facilities in Sochi to the 2014 Olympics, transport hordes in Moscow and many other iconic objects of the Putin era, the main of which is – Crimean bridge, for the construction of which the company came under international sanctions.
In October 2020, most of Mostotrest’s construction assets” was highlighted to the joint-stock company “Roads and Bridges”. It continued to work at facilities previously associated with Mostotrest, and over the three years of its existence made only four corporate acquisitions, two of which in September this year – 50 percent shares in related LLC Almaz and LLC Rubin”. These firms (they have almost the same list of founders and the same registration address) were major players in the sand mining market, but did not have experience in road construction. Now Almaz is looking for specialists to accompany the construction of the railway in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Historically, rail construction is not quite a profile work for Rotenberg structures. In 2019, the entrepreneur took up the restructuring of his assets and, together with the WEB, created the National Projectroy holding”. The main contribution of Rotenberg to the new structure was precisely JSC “Roads and Bridges”. This fall, 48 percent of the National Project” got out group “1520”, the largest construction contractor of Russian Railways. Thus, National Projectroy combined the country’s largest assets for the construction of bridges and roads (through the Rotenberg structure) and for the construction of railways (via “1520”).
Rotenberg and Crimea
The services that Arkady Rotenberg provides to Vladimir Putin, for example, taking possession of the infamous palace of the president in Gelendzhik or participating in risky and sanctions, and in terms of security, construction in the occupied territory is not left without remuneration. How wrotein 2021, the Russian edition of Project, thanks to the sale of nationalized Ukrainian property, Rotenberg structures became the largest owner of leisure and recreation facilities on the Crimean coast, having received many profitable state contracts along with this on the annexed peninsula, for example, for the reconstruction of the Artek camp”. In 2018, companies associated with Rotenberg bought the Dulber sanatorium in Koreisa at a nominal price, which until 2014 served deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Arkady Rotenberg himself, as the journalists of the Project found out, in 2021 began the construction of his “capital” – mansion with a total area of 6 – 7 thousand square meters on Cape Sarych, only land under which is estimated at 35 million dollars.
In open databases, neither Almaz LLC nor its parent companies linking this company with Arkady Rotenberg, there is no mention of state contracts for the construction of a railway through the occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions of Ukraine in the annexed Crimea. As with Promstroy LLC, which we talked about in early October, the construction project is not mentioned on the official website of Almaz or its parent companies, as well as vacancies, which talk about work in Ukraine. You can find them only on job ad sites. No one called back to the phone number left by the correspondent of Radio Liberty under one of the announcements at the time of publication of this material. Responses to questions sent to Almaz LLC and Rubin LLC by e-mail,we did not receive this publication at the time of this publication either.
Click through to see all the maps, diagrams, and pictures!
Bonus post #2: Why do we think that 'Almaz' will be working on the same 'yellow' part from Donetsk to Mariupol? They have yet another job (https://t.co/JO0sjWwPWh), with the office in Chermalik, Donetsk Oblast, just 10 km from the line that is being constructed at a full pace. pic.twitter.com/yH2nh0wbjc
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) November 7, 2023
Bucha in 2022 after the Ukrainian military had liberated it and today after it has been rebuilt:
And the same place today: pic.twitter.com/j6Vb31GMpx
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 6, 2023
Russia by way of Russian occupied Mariopul:
Photo provided by Bohdan’s lawyer, Kateryna Bobrovska, who calls for attention to the dire situation of Bohdan Ermokhin and his immediate repatriation to Ukraine.
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 7, 2023
Bohdan Yermokhin from Mariupol, who was deported to Russia by the occupiers in 2022, is at risk of being conscripted into the Russian army when he turns 18 on November 19th. Russia not only parades stolen Ukrainian children on propagandist shows, but also won’t stop at sending them to the war in Ukraine.
Taganrog air base, Russia:
Something at the military airport of Taganrog in Russia is burning.
Considering that Russian forces were compelled to abandon the Berdyansk airport and relocate large portions of their chopper fleet to this air base, this is a noteworthy development.
Source:… pic.twitter.com/3ucd1K7twW
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 7, 2023
Something at the military airport of Taganrog in Russia is burning.
Considering that Russian forces were compelled to abandon the Berdyansk airport and relocate large portions of their chopper fleet to this air base, this is a noteworthy development.
Source: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/122223
In reference to the events in Taganrog air base, Brady Africk reported that parts of the Russian chopper fleet were repositioned to this location. Russia has been banking on that Ukraine will not use Western missiles against an airbase on Russian soil. Unfortunately for them,… https://t.co/eZvF2Yk3Ts pic.twitter.com/YjLaEFisFH
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 7, 2023
In reference to the events in Taganrog air base, Brady Africk reported that parts of the Russian chopper fleet were repositioned to this location. Russia has been banking on that Ukraine will not use Western missiles against an airbase on Russian soil. Unfortunately for them, Ukraine has other means to accomplish that.
However, this is another reminder how much Russia relies on Western indecisiveness, partially still falling for Russia’s posturing and empty threats. All Russian military targets, whether inside in Ukraine or outside, are legitimate targets. Period. Russia would have been long defeated if the West would have stopped tapping the break.
It is time to remove all constraints and reservations.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets tonight, so here’s an adjacent one from the Ministry of Ukraine:
When your peaceful sleep is protected by your brother-in-arms. pic.twitter.com/DJwrg5jc9R
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 7, 2023
There is a new video at Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Подивились би?👀❤️
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Would you like to see it? 👀❤️
Open thread!
Alison Rose
Thank you for that thread from Tatarigami. I know the dingbats who don’t want to believe it will simply continue not believing it, but hopefully it can help soothe the worried feefees of some in the squishy middle.
I don’t believe that about Rotenberg. Not the reporting or any of that, it’s all fine — the “one of putin’s closest friends” part. To paraphrase the philosopher Garth Algar: “putin is no one’s friend. If putin were an ice cream flavor, he’d be pralines and dick.”
Someone tell Dmitri how to spell Dnipro.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: Dmitri is German, so I think that’s where the issue may lie in terms of his transliteration.
japa21
Per usual, thanks for the work you do. I can’t pin a finger on it, but my optimism level in regard to Ukraine has gone up recently. No, there aren’t any big breakthroughs, but there is progress. And with so much of Russians efforts in the north have extremely limited success (if it can even be called that) and with mud season up there, the efforts in the Kherson area are very promising.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
BeautifulPlumage
I read these every evening and appreciate all you do for Balloon Juice, Adam.
I’m heartened by the other countries stepping up as our house maga caucus screws with the US budget. And that Ukraine never just sat on their hands waiting for donated gear – the development of sea drones, UAVs, and long range missiles shows why they would be a good NATO partner asset.
And I read that the EU is starting the process to admit Ukraine, which is also good news.
Gin & Tonic
@BeautifulPlumage:
Bill Arnold
I really like that Luke Coffey(/Hudson Institute) piece.[1] It’s tightly written; no rambling.
Will probably be dropping links to it on social media.
(Have issues with the conservative Hudson Institute in general.)
[1] Proper link, for the bots: The Fourteen Facts about US Aid to Ukraine (Luke Coffey, Nov 3, 2023, Hudson Institute)
Carlo Graziani
I have to say that the Hudson Institute’s incisive and pithily-summarized analysis confirms my impression of that institution as being head-and-shoulders above the deeply corrupted intellectual level of all the other right-of-center US think-tanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: This is how they handled Turkey. Which eroded support, year on year, for the secular Kamalists who had tried to get Turkey into the EU. It helped create the opening for Erdogan and his politicized Islamic party.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2023/11/russia-after-the-war-2
LesGS
Bohdan Yermokhin’s situation is heart wrenching.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Bill Arnold:
Quality of analyses from think tanks like Hudson Institute, AEI & CATO are very much dependent on the individual expert & the particular subject being covered. (I suppose that applies to all of the think tanks, irrespective of their ideological leaning.) I find Hudson Institute to be extremely hawkish on almost all matters of foreign policy, it just so happens that Putin deserves a very hawkish response. Kori Schake & her team at AEI actually publishes pretty reasonable analyses on all things Asia Pacific (or the “Indo-Pacific”, DC’s preferred neologism), Oriana Skyler Mastro (is at AEI) & Blake Herzinger (was at AEI) are very much reality based analysts of the China PLA. CATO leans libertarian, which means it tends to promote voices advocating for foreign policy restraint, a perspective largely missing from the “Blob”. All three think tanks are quite risible on domestic policies. They are no friends of social justice, economic fairness, & I question how firm their (not so much the individual affiliated scholars) commitment to liberal democracy really is due to their intense partisanship. Heritage Foundation has almost no redeeming features. Places like Committee on the Present Danger: China, American Foreign Policy Council, Project 2049 Institute, & Washington Institute for Near East Policy are unapologetic bomb throwers.
Of course, the influence of these think tanks (whichever their ideological stripe) come not from their public research products or public advocacy for specific policies, or even their research products for USG, but from building the patronage networks that feed into R/D administrations, parking R/D political appointees while they wait for their party’s return to power, & formulating policy recommendations & building consensus through these informal networks. That is why the “Blob” is so prone to group think.
Adam has wrote about the clubby nature of US FP establishment in the past, & the think tanks (including those affiliated w/ institutions of higher learning) are the clubs.
Chris
@Carlo Graziani:
Hudson is supposed to be specifically the neocon brand of Republican, and for better or for worse, the neocons have been the sanest faction by far on the right side of the aisle when it comes to Trump. Certainly when it comes to foreign policy.
(Unfortunately, they don’t really bring any votes to the table).
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman:
Let’s hope the NATO members have learned something in the interim. Would be malpractice to dither on Ukraine. With Ukraine inside NATO—Russia would face a completely different constellation of ‘what ifs’…
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks. American here and this stuff is not obvious to us. You and this all purpose blog point out the obvious to others but obscure to American items.
Seriously . No snark or ///. I know how blinkered our perception is.