Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

with the Kraken taking a plea, the Cheese stands alone.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

I’m just a talker, trying to find a channel!

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Donald Jessica Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

I really should read my own blog.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 624: War on the 85th Anniversary of Kristallnacht

War for Ukraine Day 624: War on the 85th Anniversary of Kristallnacht

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Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A brief housekeeping note: to everyone that thanks me for doing these updates in comments, I see them even if it is the next morning. Thank you all for the kind words. You are all most welcome. Though I very much look forward to the day when I no longer have to do these updates.

Tonight is the 85th anniversary of Kristallnacht.

As I write this post, eighty-five years after the Night of Shattered Glass Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine has entered its 625th day because of the time difference between where I’m sitting in the US and Ukraine. In the past 624 days Russia has stolen thousands of Ukrainian children in an attempt to reeducate them into Russians. Russia has destroyed Ukrainian heritage sites in order to erase Ukrainian history, culture, art, music, and literature. In the parts of Ukraine that it is occupying Russia has remade school curricula to indoctrinate the Ukrainian children it has not stolen into becoming Russian. And every single day Russia targets, attacks, and destroys Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, housing, and civilians themselves. All of this because Putin believes that Ukraine’s actual history is really Russia’s history, that Ukraine has no history or existence separate from Russian, and that if he cannot have and control Ukraine then no one, especially the Ukrainians, can have it either. Putin’s strategic objectives are genocidal because he stated clearly the goal was the elimination of an independent Ukraine; an obliteration of Ukrainian history, society, and culture; and the absorption of Ukraine into Russia by force.

At the same time, Israel is conducting a major combat counterterrorism operation against Hamas in Gaza. As has been the case since Bibi first became prime minister in 1996 and has been the case for thirteen of the past fifteen years during his second stint as prime minister, Israel’s response is to use overwhelming force to achieve its objectives. As a result, Israel’s incursion into Gaza is both strategic malpractice and one series of war crimes and crimes against humanity after another despite it not actually being a genocide.

It is strategic malpractice because Israel should be doing four things: Step 1: precise hostage rescue operations. Step 2: review and revision of security strategy, operations, and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to diminish the likelihood of future Hamas attacks. Steps 1 & 2 have to run at the same time. Step 3: precise counter-Hamas response. Specifically a tightly targeted dismantling of Hamas leadership. Step 4: development of a policy and strategy to end the occupation & get to a negotiated solution to the dispute. Failure to undertake step 4 means that at some point steps 1 to 3 will only have to be repeated. The response now, which seems to be the sledgehammer approach that may or may not dismantle Hamas & may or may not safely recover the hostages is not working and not going to work. It further endangers the hostages and it sets the conditions to create more radicalized Palestinians who are then recruitable into Hamas, PIJ, and other violent extremist movements. The current response is ultimately self defeating.

The current response is not just strategic malpractice and self defeating because it decreases the likelihood of getting the hostages out, seriously undertaking a strategic security review and making appropriate revisions, and dismantling Hamas in a way that minimized the damage to the Gazan Palestinians so as to set the conditions to secure the post war peace. It is strategic malpractice and self defeating because the response is such an overwhelming application of force, doing so much harm to the Gazan Palestinian civilian population, that despite the strategic objective not being the ethnic cleansing of the Gazan Palestinians, the effect right now seems to be the same.

On the 85th anniversary of Kristallnacht we have one ongoing genocidal war in Europe and one ongoing major combat counterterrorism operation by the descendants of many of the victims who survived Kristallnacht undertaken in such as way and with such damage to the civilian population that despite ethnic cleansing and genocide not being a strategic objective, the effects of the operation are producing those results.

85 years and we have learned nothing.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are working with all partners to bolster air defense for Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

9 November 2023 – 18:45

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We continue to build our relations with all countries of the Global South – Ukraine needs understanding in all parts of the world.

Today I spoke with the President of Indonesia. By the way, it is the country where our Peace Formula was first presented a year ago at the G20 Summit. I have now informed Mr. President about the results we have achieved in attracting the world majority to the Peace Formula. I hope Indonesia will become part of this global effort.

We also discussed the issue of global food security – our maritime export corridors. This is one of Ukraine’s greatest successes – clearing our sea of Russian warships. This gives more security both for us and for the whole world. I am grateful to all our warriors, all port workers, and everyone who helps, for keeping the Black Sea a living sea for global relations, not a zone of Russian terror.

Of course, the suffering of people in the Middle East was one of the main topics of our conversation with the President of Indonesia. It is very important that as many civilians as possible are protected and that the war that is going on in the Middle East does not lead to a full-scale collapse of international stability. Everyone needs security and peace.

I also spoke with Mr. President of Paraguay – Ukraine’s attention to Latin America and Latin America’s attention to our country should only increase. It is right for Latin American countries to be involved in global affairs, in the protection of human rights and the sovereignty of nations.

Among all the things we discussed today with the President of Paraguay, I would like to emphasize our diplomatic efforts on the Peace Formula and our joint work on international platforms. I am grateful for supporting Ukraine.

I would also like to thank Azerbaijan today. As we agreed with Mr. President Aliyev, on the eve of the winter, we have received appropriate assistance for our energy sector. We realize that this winter’s difficulties may be no less than last year’s. We are getting ready. And the support for Ukraine, our people, and our energy sector is critically important.

We are also working with all our partners to get air defense systems for Ukraine – we are trying to add strength to our sky shield virtually every week. The more protected the Ukrainian sky, Ukrainian cities and villages are, the more opportunities our people will have for economic activity. For production, in particular, for defense production. No matter what happens in the world, Ukraine will have its own strength to defend its sovereignty.

Today, I had meetings with the Prime Minister on current issues and needs of the state, and with the Minister of Foreign Affairs on his meetings and conversations with partners, new agreements that can be reached. I also held a meeting with the Main Intelligence Directorate – there are important intelligence results. I thank you guys. We continue to evacuate our citizens from the Gaza Strip – 89 of our people have been rescued so far. We continue this work. It is a very painstaking and delicate process. Today I also heard a report from the Security Service of Ukraine on countering collaborators. Well done, guys.

Of course, the frontline. I am in touch with the military throughout the day. The hottest areas over the past day are Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kupyansk, and Bakhmut. I am grateful to all our brigades, to each unit for their resilience, for their strength, for the destruction of the occupiers. Southern directions – guys, I thank you for your strength. Our artillery, our missile forces and everyone who helps in the special services – I thank you for your accuracy. There are encouraging results. There will be more.

Glory to Ukraine!

The price being paid:

Two signalmen, father and son, serve together the Donetsk @TDF_UA
Brigade’s Mariupol Battalion.
The father stood up for the defense of Ukraine back in 2014.
His son joined him following the full-scale Russian invasion.
Today, Ukrainians of all generations are united by one goal: to clear our land of the occupiers and secure our freedom.

#UkraineWillWin

📷: Viktor Golikov

Kherson:

Avdiivka:

Machine translation of the tweet:

Avdiivka, Donetsk region, November 8, 2023
Driving through the city and evacuating civilians
Video by volunteer Denis Kristof

Krynky, Bakhmut, Velyka Novoselivka, and Robotyne:

Skadovsk, Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

There was shelling in the temporarily occupied port city of Skadovsk in the Zaporizhzhia region this morning which resulted in a collapse of a building. Commentary from Russians hinting that some important people were in the house: “not military, but others”, perhaps officials. But the situation appears worse than what the authorities are trying to paint it. We will soon hear more about it.

Kyiv:

Machine translation of the tweet:

Sophia Cathedral bell tower #Київ

Tatarigami has some thoughts on the frozen conflict narrative:

It is clear that some politicians and media outlets have been promoting a “conflict-freezing” narrative, that bears a striking resemblance to the approach outlined in Russian doctrinal thought. To delve into it, let’s look at an actual professional analysis – the report formulated by The Center for Naval Analyses under the US government contract, which outlines Russian military strategy.

In 2021, a team of analysts led by @KofmanMichael released a document called “Russian Military Strategy: Core Tenets and Operational Concepts”. This paper explores the core tenets of Russian military strategy. The paper states that Russian military strategy reflects that Russia expects to be the militarily inferior party in a regional or large-scale war against a technologically superior adversary.

Of particular relevance to our discussion is this excerpt: “The overall task for Russian military strategy is to prevent an opponent from achieving a decisive outcome during the initial period of war, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms.”

While originally designed for scenarios against a larger adversary like NATO, the core tenet of this strategy applies to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The objective is to hinder Ukraine from achieving decisive outcomes, push Ukraine into attrition, and impose costs on their military and economic infrastructure, compelling them to seek war termination on terms favorable to Russia.

Now, let’s step back and examine the strategic objectives of both countries:

– Russia aimed to replace the Ukrainian government, install a puppet regime, and gain control over Ukrainian territory. Failing to achieve these goals, Russia has had to adjust its objectives. Currently, the likelihood of achieving initial goals appears unrealistic.

– Ukraine’s strategic goals focus on liberating all its territories and reverting to internationally recognized borders. While Russia struggles to achieve its strategic goals, it retains the ability to thwart Ukraine’s strategic goals, evident in events during the counter-offensive in the summer and fall of 2023.

This understanding is crucial. Returning to the document, let’s reiterate: “The goal is to prevent the adversary from achieving a decisive outcome, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms.”

In March 2019 at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, General Gerasimov acknowledged the “emergence of new spheres of confrontation in modern conflicts and methods of warfare increasingly shift towards the integrated application of political, economic, informational, and other nonmilitary measures, realized with reliance on military force.”

Russian theorists perceive information warfare as a potent tool capable of disrupting an opponent’s command and control, deceiving adversaries, fostering instability within enemy borders, and demoralizing both civilian populations and military forces to the extent that they lose the will to resist.

Let’s shift our focus from this research paper once more

This approach is not novel. The strategy of using “frozen conflicts” as a military and political tool has been employed by Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The invasion of Moldova by Russian forces and the establishment of the so-called “Transnistria,” which persists to this day in Moldova, serves as an example. Russia utilizes this entity to exert influence on Moldova and obstruct Eurointegration processes. This same strategy unfolded in Georgia and later in Ukraine.

When Ukraine opted not to engage with Russia in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea, the so-called “de-escalation” only led to a further invasion of Donetsk oblast by a group of russian operatives led by Girkin (Strelkov).

The Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 did not yield results; instead, they were followed by a russian invasion of Ukraine. Adhering to this pattern, now more explicitly outlined in Russian military doctrine, there are no signs that Russia is inclined to abandon or alter this course.
Therefore, any calls for a “frozen conflict” merely play into the achievement of military and political goals outlined in Russian military thought and assist Russia in preparing for the next phase.

In conclusion, it’s apt to quote renowned military theorist Carl von Clausewitz: “The aggressor is always peace-loving, he would prefer to take over our country unopposed.”

If you found this content valuable, your support through likes, comments, and shares is greatly appreciated. It plays a crucial role in countering Russian misinformation. You can also contribute through donations on BuyMeACoffee, linked in my profile bio.

I am also glad to announce that the X has given the green light for a subscription service. Soon, I’ll be sharing additional exclusive content there. If you’re not following Frontelligence Insight on my site, you can opt for an X (former Twitter) subscription to receive special updates.

Here’s the link to the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) assessment.

Germany:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets from Patron today, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

There is also a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

60Comments

  1. 1.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    Was surprised Ramaswamy’s extended unhinged attack on Ukraine didn’t get more coverage.

  2. 2.

    Martin

    @Just Some Fuckhead: I think the takeaway there is that the GOP candidates on the debate stage are less relevant to the trajectory of US politics than 5 randos in an Ohio diner, and that doesn’t require inflating the relevance of the randos.

  3. 3.

    RevRick

    My parents both served in the American Embassy in Berlin before the war, my mom as a secretary and my dad as an assistant to the naval attaché. They heard the rhetoric and witnessed Kristallnacht. As my mom later explained what she heard “made the hairs on the back of her neck stand up.”

  5. 5.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @Martin: I dunno. One of the six Republican nominees for a major party’s nomination spouting Kremlin propaganda seems like a BFD to me.

  6. 6.

    dww44

    Adam, I thank you for all your hard hard work.  Persistence and diligence don’t get rewarded enough in this world.   If there is any justice, Ukraine will prevail in this war they didn’t ask for.  I hold out hope that we did learn something  in the last 85  years

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    I am very grateful to Adam for continually pointing out what the aims of russia’s war on Ukraine are. It is necessary to keep the attempted destruction of a nation and a people front-of-mind.

    And the destruction of Ukrainian heritage encompasses not just cultural and historical sites, it also, unfortunately, includes nature as well:

    😡 Russian occupiers completely destroyed the Dzharylhach National Park’s protected area, — Ministry of Ecology.

    The entire protected area (1,588 hectares) was destroyed.

    Habitats listed in the Red Book of Ukraine and the European Red List were damaged. pic.twitter.com/79OIoYLPuL
    — UNITED24media (@United24media) November 9, 2023

    This is a stunningly beautiful wild area on the Black Sea coast south of Kherson.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    But Ramaswamy said these policies don’t go far enough. He lamented that the northern border does not get discussed as often as it should.

    “I’m the only candidate on this stage, as far as I’m aware, who has actually visited the northern border,” Ramaswamy said, on the tail end of remarks about border security.

    “There was enough fentanyl that was captured just on the northern border last year to kill three million Americans. So we’ve got to just skate to where the puck is going — not just where the puck is,” he said.

    “Don’t just build the wall — build both walls.”

    It was not a throwaway line either. Ramaswamy has begun raising the idea as part of his platform and tweeted about it last month.

    For context, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports that two pounds of fentanyl have been seized in the northern border region this year.

    That represents approximately 0.0074 per cent of the 27,000 pounds seized overall, according to the agency’s figures.

    Republican lawmakers have been complaining more frequently about the northern border in the context of unauthorized migration, but the numbers remain a tiny portion of the U.S. total.

    A mere 2.7 per cent of people stopped trying to enter the U.S. from Canada since the start of the 2022 fiscal year were actually trying to enter between crossings, according to U.S. data available earlier this year.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vivek-ramaswamy-canada-border-wall-1.7023226

    Moron.

  10. 10.

    Jay

    Logo
    Mykola Kuleba
    @MykolaKuleba
    7h
    17-year-old Bohdan from #Mariupol , who was deported by the Russians to the Moscow region, was served with a summons. The boy has a few days left before he comes of age.

    Bogdan Yermokhin has been an orphan since he was 8 years old. At first, his older sister was his guardian. But at the beginning of the full-scale war, the teenager was under the care of the director of the Mariupol college where he studied. In May 2022, the boy, along with 30 other students of the institution, was taken by the Russian military to occupied #Donetsk and eventually moved to a sanatorium in the Moscow region. Later, he was placed in the #Russian foster family of the Rudnytsky’s.

    All this time, Bohdan was trying to return to Ukraine, but the Russian authorities, and personally Lvova-Belova, prevented him from doing so. They justified this by saying that he was a minor and could not go anywhere on his own. The guy was waiting for his coming of age, which will happen soon, to return to Ukraine. But he received a summons.

    The Russian authorities have not responded to his sister’s appeals. Ms. Lvova-Belova herself denies in every possible way that anyone has contacted them. That is, they are simply stalling for time so that Bohdan has no chance of being rescued. As long as he is a minor, they won’t let him go, and they are preventing him from getting his documents drawn up. As soon as he turns 18, they will immediately send him to war. And all this is under the cover of the Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Lvova-Belova.

    First, the Russians came to Bohdan’s hometown and destroyed it. The boy was illegally transferred to the territory of the Russian Federation and forced to take Russian citizenship. They took away his phone, depriving him of the right to communicate, and forced him to participate in propaganda activities. Now they want to send the teenager to fight against Ukraine.

    Thus, the boy became a victim and witness of several war crimes committed by Russians in the occupied territories: deportation, discrimination, persecution, violation of the right to preserve national identity, and delays in repatriation.

    We must help Bohdan return to #Ukraine. Please share this post to make it more widely known.

    P.S. This story is not an isolated one. There are thousands of people like Bohdan. Some have the courage and ability to fight, and some do not. That is why they are still under Russian propaganda.

    https://nitter.net/MykolaKuleba/status/1722698939856551996#m

  11. 11.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for the pointer to Tatarigami’s thread. It’s an excellent and compelling argument and shouldn’t be surprising to people paying attention.

    The thing about doctrines, of course, is that they can be and often are replaced by another one. Russia’s doctrine of ever expanding empire met a new reality in the Russo-Japanese War. The USSR’s doctrine of Communism never being reversed met a new reality in Afghanistan. Putin’s doctrine of frozen conflict will similarly come to an end.

    The ultimate question, of course, is what Ukraine’s friends and allies are willing to do to hasten that end, and what will happen internally in VVP’s Russia.

    From the link above:

    For the Russians, expansion into Manchuria was the continuation of a policy that can be traced back as far as the reign of Ivan the Terrible, or to as recently as the nineteenth-century Imperial government’s colonial policy. In the course of building an empire through Central Asia and into the Far East, the gulf between the tsar and Russian society widened and became irreparably compromised, but the war in 1904 was greeted with an outburst of patriotic support! Nicholas II, who could not afford to ignore the growing chasm between his autocracy and Russian society, squandered this support through his reckless system of governance. His inability to firmly control the empire’s policy of expansion into the Far East aptly demonstrated why everyone—from peasants, to educated society, to aristocrats—lost confidence in their tsar, particularly after he foolishly stumbled into conflict with Japan.

    The more things change…

    Thanks Adam.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  12. 12.

    Gin & Tonic

    The Cathedral of St. Sophia (whose belltower is pictured in a Tweet in this post) is a World Heritage Site in more or less the center of Kyiv. Mostly rebuilt several times, there are still original portions dating back to its construction under the rule of Yaroslav the Wise in the years 1011-1018.

  17. 17.

    rekoob

    Thirty-five years ago, I was a 26-year-old chorister in Frankfurt. My choir (Figuralchor des Hessischen Rundfunks) asked us men to participate in a commemoration of Kristallnacht 50 years on. We sang Arnold Schoenberg’s “A Survivor from Warsaw” cantata at the Alte Oper in the middle of town. We were asked to forego the usual evening clothes (tuxedos) in favor of simple shirts and trousers that would make us look more like those who were subjected to the pogrom. Behind us was a screen replaying newsreels of the devastation. Without question one of the most memorable performances in my life.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    While I don’t believe most of Israel’s natsec apparatus, political elite & population want to commit ethnic cleansing or genocide against the Gazans, there does appear to be a very vocal minority who are quire fine w/ such an outcome, & members of this vocal minority are in Bibi’s cabinet.

    I also don’t know to interpret Bibi’s claim that Israel will take “indefinite security responsibility” over northern Gaza. If Israel also does not want to occupy & govern a Gazan population in the northern part of the Strip, then would that basically be a policy of ethnic cleaning of northern Gaza?

  21. 21.

    Martin

    @Just Some Fuckhead: I think it’s more concerning that half or more of the GOP voting base is not just receptive to the Kremlin propaganda, but demands more of it.

    But the media don’t know how to call voters lunatics.

  24. 24.

    db11

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Netanyahu says Israel not seeking to displace Gazans or rule enclave

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states for the first time that Israel does not seek to displace Palestinians in the war against Hamas, after a growing number of regional leaders expressed fears that this was Jerusalem’s ulterior motive.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states for the first time that Israel does not seek to displace Palestinians in the war against Hamas, after a growing number of regional leaders expressed fears that this was Jerusalem’s ulterior motive.

    “We don’t seek to displace anyone,” Netanyahu tells Fox News.

    “What we’re trying to do is get the Gazans in the northern part of the Gaza Strip where the fighting has taken place to move one to four miles south where we have established a safe zone,” the prime minister continues. “We want to see field hospitals. We’re encouraging and enabling humanitarian help to go there. That’s how we’re fighting this war.”

    He also provides new details regarding Israel’s vision for what Gaza will look like after the war.

    “What we have to see is Gaza demilitarized, deradicalized and rebuilt. All of that can be achieved,” Netanyahu says.

    “We don’t seek to conquer Gaza. We don’t seek to occupy Gaza. And we don’t seek to govern Gaza,” the premier adds, falling in line with the stance expressed by the Biden administration…

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israel-not-seeking-to-displace-gazans-or-rule-enclave

    ETA: I wonder how much of this evolving policy / clarification of intention is due to behind-the-scenes pressure from Biden / Blinken and perhaps other Western allies.

  26. 26.

    wjca

    @Cameron: It’s disturbing, but it would be a lot more disturbing if he actually had a better chance at the nomination than I do.

    What’s disturbing is that the others on stage didn’t immediately denounce him over it.

  27. 27.

    Geminid

    @db11: There is also the fact that Netanyahu is now only one member of a three member War Cabinet. Under the agreement ratified by the Knesset, those three men- Netanyahu, Gallant, and Gantz- togethet have authority to make major decisions in this war.

    And there is also the fact that every Israeli politician, even Netanyahu’s own allies, knows he is a self-interested liar.

  28. 28.

    Citizen Alan

    @Martin: Much more than half. The party as a whole is fascist now, and Russia is the most powerful fascist nation in the world atm. Maybe not the entirety of the GOP is pro-Putin, but that faction dominates their voters.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    Last test: Is anyone actually seeing my comments?

    There’s some weird back end of the site stuff going on.

  31. 31.

    Mike in NC

    I’m about to read “In the Garden of Beasts” by Eric Larsen, which I made a mental note to read several years ago. Wife read the book and liked it.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: It does seem clear that the worst—and most natural—instincts of the MIGA movement in control of the current Israeli government are being somehow restrained, because the vengeful ethnic cleansing that they so clearly desire, and which is certainly within Israel’s technical capability is not occurring. For a thought experiment, imagine the outcome with Putin in Netanyahu’s place.

    One factor that is certainly at play is that while the US is publicly as supportive as humanly imaginable of the Israeli position, in private some very blunt conversations are occurring, and some very definite expectations are being set in very uncompromising ways.

    One should bear in mind that Likud has zero friends in the current US natsec establishment, having essentially taken over the foreign-policy office of the Republican party ever since the W administration. There is a lot of buried antagonism towards Bibi and Likud that has taken a back seat to diplomatic pragmatism, and to the faits accomplis of the Trump era, and that can now suddenly be aired to sustain the inspiration for US Mideast policy revision.

    I’ll reiterate, pardon the nauseam: the US is the only International agent with the capability and credibility to force a durable endgame in the region. The tragedy of the past near-quarter century has been the disengagement of the US from the mideast peace process, beginning with the W era, with Likud’s takeover of the GOP foreign policy, and the Iraq war calamity, resulting in a permanent US de-emphasis of the peace process that the Obama administration did nothing to reverse, the Trump administration rejoiced in (“Abraham Accords”) and which the Biden Administration had, to-date, neglected to prioritize correction of.

    I am reluctant to ascribe any benefit to the actions of Hamas, all of whose leadership belong in court on trial for their lives, and who certainly did not launch their assault to revive the peace process. But I would relish the irony if they were ultimately judged to have accomplished exactly that.

  40. 40.

    SixStringFanatic

    @rekoob: That was just a year and a half after I left Frankfurt.  I spent five years there as the son of an Army sergeant. Graduated from Frankfurt American High School. I loved every moment I spent there; such a fantastic city.

  44. 44.

    way2blue

    Adam.  Thank you for tonight’s analysis of Israel’s ill-fated approach to resolving the crisis.  Do you envision any course change as long as Netanyahu is in charge?  (Along with the more extreme members of his coalition.)   Are there any national / regional leaders with the ‘stones’ to persuade Israel’s leaders to temper their actions and focus on the goals you outlined above?

  46. 46.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: I’ve read that Bibi was working toward formal annexation of the West Bank, hence suggestions that’s why so much security was away from Gaza. That had been building since Trump was elected.

    But now they’re occupying Gaza. I don’t think they intended to be there now. They may not know how to square up the old plans with the new dynamic. And who knows how pressure from the US may have changed in all of this.

  49. 49.

    db11

    @Geminid: No doubt about Netanyahu being a liar — I just find it interesting how much his tone vis-a-vis Gaza has shifted with this latest statement.

    No doubt it is a result of applied pressure, both internal and external, and reflects growing awareness — seen in eroding global support for Israel’s response to the Hamas’s attack — of the shifting military calculus in what represents “acceptable” levels of civilian casualties in their attempts to erode Hamas’ capability and infrastructure.

    ETA: Continued thanks Adam for your sustained efforts on our behalf in keeping us so well informed on conditions in Ukraine and Israel. Oh, and I saw all three(?) of your tests.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: It is still early in Israel’s war in Gaza. 1.5M Gazans have already been displaced. We will have to see if Israel will let those displaced from norther Gaza back. If not, under the guise of imposed security controls, then whether that is ethnic cleansing becomes a matter of semantics.

    I see evidence that the Biden Administration has forced some changes in Israeli actions (such as allowing small humanitarian convoys into Gaza per day, resuming water & internet connection albeit rendered meaningless by lack of power, slowing the ground assault), but no evidence that it has had any impact in restraining the IDF’s ruinous bombing campaign. Anonymous Administration officials are reduced to pleading to MSMs & Arab governments that the U.S. has little leverage to affect Israeli actions (so should not be tarred by Israeli actions), & are pleading w/ Israel to use 250 lb bombs rather than 1000 or 2000 lb bombs. (Consider the result of dropping 1000/2000 lb bombs on crowded urban slums.) Israeli war crimes & crimes against humanity are ongoing in Gaza.

    I too hope that the shock of Hamas’ barbarous surprise attack somehow revives the peace process. It certainly punctured the delusions prevalent in many capitals that the peace process was not an urgent matter, as the Palestinian issue could be “managed” indefinitely.

    I think Obama really wanted to push the peace process forward, but he & his administration just could not conceive of strong arming Israel in any way toward that end. Carter, GHWB & Clinton were willing to do so.

  51. 51.

    Martin

    @db11: His statements could simply mean the old plan is back on – contain Gaza, annex the West Bank, deal with Gaza another day. They’ve invested a lot in colonizing the West Bank, and the attention on Gaza may have closed off staying there.

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: We cannot discount the possibility that the PA loses control of the WB & the territory blow up. Settler violence & IDF incursions battling militants are escalating daily. It is just not being covered in the press very much.

  53. 53.

    db11

    @Martin: Given the rage within Israel at Netanyahu, I think that even if he still thought that a viable path (which I think is deluded), he has no credibility or support to pull it off.

    His strategy of dividing the Palestinians between Hamas in Gaza and PA in the West Bank failed utterly in its stated purpose of protecting the security of Israel. Once the immediate threat of Hamas has been removed, I expect (hope?) the political dynamics within Israel to shift dramatically.

    I also think that the West Bank is ultimately a much more unsolvable problem vis-a-vis eventual peace than Gaza (even if that is much more acute / disastrous at the moment).

    I was living in Israel when some of the early settlements were being built on the dusty, empty hills outside of East Jerusalem 40 years ago (under Begin’s Likud). Starting then and ever since I’ve thought the settlement policy an unmitigated moral and practical disaster for the future security and soul of Israel.

    I agree with YY_Sima Qian that the WB is a tinder box, and the fire is being continually stoked by the settlers and their rabid ultra-nationalist sponsors in the Likud coalition: i.e. Smotrich, Ben-Givir and the like. The PA has little credibility due to to their corruption and perceived collaboration and it wouldn’t take much for the whole thing to go up.

  54. 54.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yeah. I don’t know how to evaluate what I’ve read for how plausible/credible it is, but if the plan has been to annex WB, then 10/7 may have been an effort to throw a wrench in the works, draw focus on the area such that Israel can’t do it while nobody is looking and/or draw other elements into the situation to make it difficult for Israel to carry it out – settler violence, etc.

    What a goddamn mess.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian<

    Settler violence & IDF incursions battling militants attacking Palestinian villages are escalating daily. It is just not being covered in the press very much.

    The residents are being told to “leave or die” after bulldozers rip up their streets, tear down their orchards and the settlers loot solar panels, raid houses and other infrastructure under protective guard from the IDF.

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/west-bank-palestinians-try-to-save-their-homes-from-israeli-extremists

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: Right now, the world’s gaze is almost entirely on Gaza, & Israel is receiving some pressure to moderate its actions & plans. The daily violence in the WB is getting little coverage, so I don’t Israel is being pressured for its policies & actions there at all.

  59. 59.

    Matt

    despite it not actually being a genocide.

    I’m sure the dead kids in Gaza are glad to know that they weren’t genocided. /s

    Even if you want to split that hair, what’s going on in the West Bank is 100% genocide. Armed bands of settlers, with the military looking on, forcing entire villages to move with threats of violence.

  60. 60.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt:

    Even if you want to split that hair, what’s going on in the West Bank is 100% genocide.

    Genocide has an established definition:

    First, the crime of genocide is characterised by the specific intent to destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group by killing its members or by other means: causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; or forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

    That’s from the ICC. Leaders in Russia, e.g. V. Putin, are being charged with a violation of the last clause. (In conjunction, I presume (haven’t read the indictment), with loudly and broadly expressed intent by Russians at a high levels, to destroy Ukrainian identity, and destruction of Ukrainian language books in occupied areas, and etc.)
    Israel is skirting with such violations, due to inclusion in the current government of MKs who espouse (at least occasionally, and with at best halfhearted walkbacks) similar views.
    Make a case, that would not be (gently) laughed out of the ICC.

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