Just a quick housekeeping note: There is still no ceasefire for hostages deal. In fact the President Special Envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, arrived in Israel to express the President’s concerns that Israel is trying to bait Hezbullah into a war in Lebanon that would draw in other regional actors, as well as the US. And that Israel should knock it off. Israel is unlikely to knock it off.

Secretary of Defense Austin paid a visit to Kyiv today.

Was extremely glad to welcome Secretary Austin to Kyiv today.
This visit is a clear message — the US support for Ukraine will remain steadfast and long-term.

We had a fruitful discussion with @SecDef.
Discussed Ukraine's current and future (capabilities) on the battlefield… pic.twitter.com/HOgvH1Sjvb

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 20, 2023

The visit of @SecDef to Kyiv today is a clear message — the US support for Ukraine will remain steadfast and long-term.

Minister @rustem_umerov discussed with Secretary Austin Ukraine's current and future (capabilities) on the battlefield and how the US & allies can help… https://t.co/MRh3yR2v3O

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 20, 2023

I’ll have more details from the SecDef’s press gaggle in Kyiv after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The world sees America’s strength in helping Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

20 November 2023 – 19:03

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

It was an eventful day.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin paid a visit to Ukraine. The delegation also included Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Mr. Cavoli. It was a very productive conversation, and it is important that it took place on the eve of the new meeting in the Ramstein format.

Of course, we discussed the situation on the battlefield and its prospects – how we can enhance both our defense and our advancement. There is a new defense package for our country from the United States. I am grateful for it. In particular, there will be more artillery – shells that are needed right now.

We also discussed Ukraine’s actions in the Black Sea and the protection of our export corridor. Freedom of navigation is a fundamental value for the entire world, and Ukraine has proven here in the Black Sea that we are capable of driving the aggressor out of the water area that it wanted so badly to make dead.

I am grateful to all partners who are helping us to ensure the real restoration of international law on our land and in our sea, and I am especially grateful to the United States for its continued leadership in support.

Normal life in the world largely depends on whether America is strong in protecting life. And the world sees this strength in helping Ukraine.

I held several important meetings today. The first one was about planning our international communication for the coming weeks. There will be relevant events. I also held meetings with the heads of the intelligence services – both the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. Both are working efficiently, and I am grateful for that.

A meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Mostly about current issues – things that the government is currently implementing. But also about our relations with some partners.

In particular, the Prime Minister reported on his talks with representatives of Bulgaria and Romania, which is clearly a growing area of cross-border cooperation. I am grateful to our partners. This includes the work of the maritime corridor, the Danube export cluster, and the overall trade turnover between our countries. With Romania alone, we see the potential to reach 4 million tons of trade turnover by the end of this year. This is very powerful and very supportive not only for our country, not only for jobs in Ukraine, but also for partner countries. The whole region grows when neighbors cooperate.

I am sure we will expand our cooperation. Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, and the entire European Union are absolutely interested in making our ties stronger. Because later on, this strength is reflected in the growth of our ability to defend ourselves – to defend freedom.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone whose job is to make Ukraine, our people, and our children more secure. And I thank every Ukrainian soldier, every sergeant, every officer of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, everyone who defends the state and truly cares about human life!

Glory to Ukraine!

I came to Kyiv today with an important message – the United States stands with Ukraine, and we are going to be with them for the long haul. pic.twitter.com/4wPE2Jx2tm

— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) November 20, 2023

Here’s the transcript of SecDef’s press gaggle from earlier today in Kyiv: (emphasis mine)

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Holds a Press Gaggle, Kyiv, Ukraine
Nov. 20, 2023
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III

BRIG. GEN. PAT RYDER: All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome. Secretary Austin will have a few opening remarks, and then we’ll turn it over to questions. Please note, I will call on reporters.

So, Mr. Secretary, over to you, sir.

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Good evening. It’s great to be back in Kyiv.

This is my third visit to Kyiv as Secretary of Defense, my second visit since the war started. I was here in April of 2022. Since that time, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which, as you know, is a group of about 50 nations that work together to provide much-needed security assistance to Ukraine – that group has roared into action, and we have continued to work together to provide much-needed security assistance in the form of HIMARS, other artillery platforms, tanks, munitions. And so really, really good work on the part of our allies and partners.

Had a good chance to discuss a number of issues with President Zelenskyy and Minister Umerov; talked about current operations and also talked about what Minister Umerov looks to do with the Ministry of Defense going forward in terms of his near-term goals and objectives and his mid-term goals and objectives. So very, very constructive conversations.

I wanted to reassure the leadership that the United States of America will continue to support Ukraine. And so, you know, we talked about the things that we’re going to continue to do to make sure that they have what they need to be successful on the battlefield.

It also gave us an opportunity to re-focus and make sure that we maintain alignment between the operations on the ground and the President’s objectives. And so that was a great opportunity.

And so overall, it’s been a great visit. And with that, I’ll take a couple of your questions.

BRIG. GEN. RYDER: Ellee, CBS?

Q: I’m going to derail things. I have an Israel question, so sorry. Have you seen any cause for concern, how the Israelis are using the American-provided weapons? And have you voiced any concerns to your counterparts in Israel?

SEC. AUSTIN: So the question is have I seen any cause for concern, in terms of how the weapons that we’re providing to Israel are being used? We have said every step of the way that our expectation is that the Israelis conduct their operations in accordance with the law of armed conflict.

And we have made sure that we continue to emphasize to the Israelis that they must account for civilians in the battlespace. And not only that, but they must do everything – or should do everything that they can to get humanitarian assistance in to the people in Gaza.

And as we’ve said a number of times, Hamas does not equal the Palestinian people. Hamas is a terrorist organization and the Palestinian people deserve better, they deserve much more. And again, hopefully at the end of this, you know, this will transition into something that provides good governance for the people of Gaza and addresses the underlying causes of instability.

(CROSSTALK)

Q: Mr. Secretary, German Minister Boris Pistorius said that XX will be a gamechanger in Ukraine. Some are afraid of even F-16s won’t be a gamechanger. Given these statements, and what, in what in your opinion, can be a gamechanger or advantage in Ukraine?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, that’s a great question. And you heard me say, you’ve heard us say a number of times that there is no silver bullet in a conflict like this. It really depends on providing the right capabilities and also integrating those capabilities in meaningful ways so that you can create the right effects on the battlefield.

And so whether it’s F-16s, whether it’s HIMARS, whether it’s something else, it’s the way that you go about utilizing those capabilities and integrating it, synchronizing the capabilities to produce the right effects on the battlefield.

BRIG. GEN. PAT RYDER: Let’s go to Voice of America, Carla Babb.

Q: Thank you. First of all, there’s been a steady drumbeat of aid rolling out for Ukraine. Did you tell your counterparts about any additional U.S. aid that is coming out for Ukraine in the coming days?

And then on the fighting, how important is it to prevent Russia from again having the winter months to harden their defenses? And have you received assurances from the people you stood with today, from these leaders, that they are going to keep the pressure on Russia?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, you heard President Zelenskyy say a number of times that he intends to continue to keep the pressure on the Russians. And so, we expect that, you know, that will absolutely happen.

And the first part of your question again, Carla?

Q: Well, the first part was did you tell them that about any additional aid that the U.S. would be providing to Ukraine in the coming days?

SEC. AUSTIN: Yeah, so I announced today another $100 million drawdown using presidential drawdown authority, that it’ll provide additional artillery munition — munitions, additional interceptors for air defense, and a number of anti-tank weapons as well.

So, our support continues, but you’re right, other allies and partners are also stepping up to the plate as well.

BRIG. GEN. PAT RYDER: Let’s go to IC TV, Natalia

Q: Good evening. Mr. Secretary, I will follow up with my colleague’s question. From your perspective, is Ukrainian Army all ready for winter combat, especially considering the fact of this funding challenges from the United States Congress?

SEC. AUSTIN: I think they are prepared for combat in the winter, and certainly they did a great job last year. This year, we expect for them to be, just based upon what the President has said, President Zelenskyy has said, for them to be even more aggressive. In this latest drawdown package that I just mentioned, we’ve included in there some winter gear as well. We provided winter gear last year.

So yeah, they have the means that they’ll need to be successful in fighting in the wintertime. And I think I agree with President Zelenskyy — the right thing to do is continue to press the fight, take the fight to the enemy.

BRIG. GEN. PAT RYDER: Let’s go to AFP, Will.

Q: Secretary Austin, how worried are you personally about the future of U.S. security aid to Ukraine, given the opposition in Congress? And how do you seek to reassure Ukrainians through your visit … the U.S. back and forth.

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I continue to see bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. And I know that there are some things that we need to continue to work through to get the supplemental request approved, and we’ll continue to work with Congress to do that. Again Congress, our congressional members, have valid questions that we will answer. But again, I would point out that Ukraine matters, what happens here matters. Not just to Ukraine, but to the entire world.

This is about the rules-based international order. This is about, not living in a world where a dictator can wake up one day and decide to annex the property of his peaceful neighbor. That’s not the world that we want to live in.

And so, this is more than just Ukraine, this is about, again, the rules-based international order.

BRIG. GEN. PAT RYDER: Final question, Missy Ryan, Washington Post?

Q: Hi, Secretary Austin. Coming away from your talks today, do you have a sense that Ukraine has a more clear path to substantial territorial progress and that it has remedied some of the issues that contributed to the problems in the current counter-offensive?

And I have a follow-up, if I might.

SEC. AUSTIN: I think, you know, Ukraine — the Ukraine military is a learning organization and it will continue to learn from all of its operations to this point. I think what’s important is that the military constructs its operations to focus on the objectives and the goals that the President wants to achieve. And again, synchronizing that up and making sure that we remain in the right place — or they remain in the right place continues to be something that they’ll continue to focus on.

So yeah, I think — I think they have learned a lot. I think they’ll continue to learn. But, you know, this is dynamic. As they learn and make adjustments, the enemy learns and makes adjustments.

Q: And then the related follow-up is I know you and your team and your counterparts on the military side have been working really hard over the last year and a half to support Ukraine and train their forces to get at a number of different capabilities. And yet, the operation — offensive operations haven’t had the outcome that everybody wanted.

How does this deadlock on the battlefield get broken, given that you guys have give — you know, given all the support that you thought you could give?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, let’s take stock of what the Ukrainians have actually done.

They’ve take back half the prog- — half the — the ground that the Russians originally occupied. I think that’s a pretty big deal.

I think if you look at what they’ve accomplished here at the — with the Black Sea Fleet, they have inflicted significant pain on the — on that fleet and actually caused them to reposition a bit.

If you look at the damage that they’ve created the Russians land forces overall, it’s significant, and it will take Russia quite a while to recover from that in order to create the kind of force that it had before this began.

So, we have to give credit where credit is due. I mean, we said it was going to be a tough fight. It’s a grinding fight, and I think we’ll continue to see that in the future.

Now, what’s important, as you’ve pointed out in your earlier part of the question, is that they learned from, you know, operations in the past and that they’d make the right adjustments, and that they anticipate that the enemy will also adjust as they are adjusting.

(CROSSTALK)

Here’s the full details on the drawdown based assistance package:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance for Ukraine
Nov. 20, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-first tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine defend its sovereign territory and fight for its freedom from Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

This package utilizes assistance previously authorized for Ukraine during prior fiscal years under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that remained after the PDA revaluation process.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $100 million, include:

• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• One High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition;
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• More than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
• Cold weather gear; and
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

The United States remains committed to working with the coalition the United States has built of some 50 Allies and partners who are providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to defend itself now and deter Russian aggression well into the future. Our allies and partners have stepped up to provide approximately $36 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. Under the leadership of the United States, this global coalition has enabled Ukraine’s courageous forces to successfully defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, win critical battles that repelled Russian forces, and take back more than half of the territory seized by Russian invaders.

Security assistance for Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It helps to prevent a larger conflict in the region and deter potential aggression elsewhere, while strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people in dozens of states across the country. It is critical that Congress take action to support Ukraine by passing the President’s supplemental funding request.

 

Secretary Austin was not the only visitor in Kyiv today. Lachlan Murdoch, Fox reporter Benjamin Hall, and Sun reporter Jeremy Starkey also met with President Zelenskyy today. From the President of Ukraine’s website:

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch, Fox News journalist Benjamin Hall and The Sun journalist Jerome Starkey, who visited our country.

The Head of State thanked the representatives of the media group for comprehensive coverage of Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression and for telling about Russian atrocities despite the risks to themselves.

In the spring of 2022, a group of Fox News journalists came under Russian fire in Kyiv region. Cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski and Ukrainian fixer Oleksandra Kuvshynova were killed. Benjamin Hall was seriously wounded.

The President noted the important role of the world media in consolidating international support for Ukraine and expressed condolences to all those whose relatives and friends were taken by the war.

“All this time, journalists, cameramen, editors, photographers, drivers have been on the frontline. As this is a hybrid war, information is also a weapon in Russian hands. My sincere condolences to the families and friends of those very brave men and women who lost their lives trying to show what is happening in Ukraine. In particular, it is thanks to journalists from many countries that we now have such support in the world,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said

The President awarded Benjamin Hall with the Order of Merit, III class, for his outstanding personal contribution to strengthening interstate cooperation, support for Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

The Head of State thanked Lachlan Murdoch for his visit and emphasized that it is a very important signal of support at the time when the world’s attention is blurred by other events.

The President also spoke about the situation on the battlefield, the high motivation and determination of the Ukrainian people and their belief in victory. Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of maintaining the world’s attention to our efforts in the fight for freedom and our state.

“For some reason, people treat it like a movie and expect that there will be no long pauses in the events, that the picture before their eyes will always change, that there will be some surprises every day. But for us, for our warriors, this is not a movie. These are our lives. This is daily hard work. And it will not be over as quickly as we would like, but we have no right to give up and we will not,” the Head of State emphasized.

The interlocutors discussed further cooperation and exchanged views on Russian propaganda narratives used by opponents of support for Ukraine. They also discussed the Ukrainian vision of a just peace based on the Peace Formula.

Kyiv:

Meanwhile, we in Kyiv have a new monumental artwork dedicated to air defense people and electricians — the heroes of the last (and the upcoming) winter under the barrage of Russian missiles. pic.twitter.com/B3PaGZQzJ9

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 20, 2023

Avdiivka:

Cluster munition strikes on groups of Russian infantry. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/KJqT4Dmgig pic.twitter.com/U5cUctuKvv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 20, 2023

Donetsk Oblast:

Operators of the 3rd Regiment of the Special Operations Forces adjusted HIMARS fire on a russian R-149 command and staff vehicle in Donetsk region.

📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/yg9oT2oeua

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 20, 2023

Obligatory:

 

Kreminna, Russian occupied Luhansk:

Russian source published a video of a blown up car of “acting deputy minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the so-called LPR”.

As stated on the evening of November 16, at one of the checkpoints in Kreminna, a UAZ “Patriot” was blown up, in which there were “deputy… pic.twitter.com/J4zui4S3HE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 20, 2023

Russian source published a video of a blown up car of “acting deputy minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the so-called LPR”.

As stated on the evening of November 16, at one of the checkpoints in Kreminna, a UAZ “Patriot” was blown up, in which there were “deputy head of the Criminal Investigation Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR,” police lieutenant colonel Vladimir Pakholenko and “acting deputy minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the LPR,” police lieutenant colonel Oleg Shumilov.

As claimed, both were hospitalized and diagnosed with shrapnel wounds.

https://t.me/astrapress/42639

Statomlynivka:

58th brigade repels Russian attack on Statomlynivka area.
Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 UTV can be seen starting from 0:24. By early 2024 China will supply Russian army with a total of 1590 such vehicles. https://t.co/lRZWsw8HeV pic.twitter.com/SUmAfABeJo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 20, 2023

Slovianks, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kherson:

I wish Ukrainians could experience the first snow from the comfort of their warm homes, not in trenches or bomb shelters. The first snowfall in Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kherson pic.twitter.com/SISjIRDrcg

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 20, 2023

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

On November 18, 2023, a Russian radar and radio position was discovered near the settlement of Dmitriev, Kursk region.

Two expensive Russian radar stations were struck. First is a 55Zh6 "Sky" radar and secondly is probably a "Gamma-S1E".

Final damage assessment is still ongoing… pic.twitter.com/turQEWzwTl

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 20, 2023

Here is Tatarigami’s take on F-16s and their utility for the Ukrainians. Please remember that Tatarigami is an officer in the Ukrainian Army Reserves, not an aviator.

The crucial aspect I forgot to include in the last sentence is the essential need for both weaponry and radars. The combination of capable radars and weaponry with an operational range exceeding 100 km is necessary. Without this combination, it won't be effective.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 20, 2023

F-16s: Addressing Challenges and Creating Opportunities

Introduction

There have been many developments on the frontlines, including the increased presence of guided aerial bombs, that turn old dumb bombs into more precise and deadly weapons. This poses a significant threat, allowing russians to engage targets anywhere around 60 km away, placing them outside the effective range of most air defense systems.

This war is heavily dependent on artillery, leading to two significant challenges for both sides – shortages of ammunition and barrel wear, along with the straightforward combat loss of artillery. In attempts to address these issues, both sides seek foreign assistance, while alternative methods, to a limited extent, such as FPV and aerial bombs serve as partial compensatory measures

Problem

The increasing use of guided aerial bombs by russians is an increasing problem due to their capacity to carry a much larger payload than conventional artillery shells or kamikaze drones like the Shahed. Russia’s aerial bombs typically carry explosives ranging from 100 to 700 kg. With the adoption of the UMPK kit, russian jets gained the capability to transform dumb bombs into gliding munitions, allowing them to target locations from approximately 50 – 65 km away.

This places them beyond the effective range of most if not all, frontline air defense (AD) weaponry. While Ukraine does possess a limited number of AD systems capable of reaching jets deploying gliding bombs, these systems are primarily tasked with protecting more strategically significant installations located farther from the frontline.

In practical terms, this presents a problem of a systematic character. The number of existing AD systems is insufficient to consistently counter the threat posed by jets launching gliding bombs.

Advancement of this technology, coupled with the recent utilization of the RBK-500 cluster bomb by Russians demonstrates the potential for future problems if russia successfully organizes an industrial-level deployment of these bombs, particularly when boosted by the UMPK kit.

Solution

In my view, deploying F-16s armed with AIM-120D missiles, with an operational range of approximately 100 km (with claims that the range is actually much longer), could effectively mitigate this problem. This capability will allow Ukraine to engage Russian jets carrying guided bombs without flying into the frontline, thus avoiding most russian air defense systems like TOR or BUK. It is crucial to remember that Ukraine needs not just F-16s but also the appropriate AMRAAM missiles to effectively target air threats with air-to-air missiles.

Furthermore, this solution has the potential to not only mitigate the issue with glide bombs but also address concerns related to russian helicopters. Ka-52 and Mi-28 NM helicopters, operating 8-12 km away from their targets and deploying Vikhr and/or LMUR missiles, currently remain outside the effective range of Ukraine’s Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) systems.

Summary

I remain skeptical about either side achieving aerial supremacy in this war, given the saturation of air defense (AD) systems that would impede dominance, and russia still operates fighters capable of deploying air-to-air missiles. A good retrospective example is the early stage of the war, where, despite having a larger russian air force and experienced pilots, they failed to establish control over Ukrainian skies. This occurred even with the advantages of surprise and a massive missile barrage against Ukrainian AD and radar sites, long before any serious AD systems from the West were brought to Ukraine.

Given this, the F-16’s value lies in its potential to substantially impede Russian air capabilities rather than provide air dominance, possibly attaining favorable local air situations or temporary air superiority during offensive operations. This could offer a crucial window of opportunity for maneuvering. Realizing this potential would likely necessitate a considerable deployment of F-16s equipped with appropriate weaponry, including AIM-120, AGM-158 JASSM, and AGM-154 JSOW.

And a few follow ups:

I am sure that for any problem there can be thousands of excuses. As it happened with all previous weapon deliveries including HIMARS and ATACMS

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 20, 2023

I didn’t imply that they are problems of the same root, but implied that these are solvable problems. There aren’t just too many alternatives to the problem I described. There always will be some problems, ifs and buts, but the bottom line is that there are no better alternatives

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 20, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

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