Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

This fight is for everything.

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Please don’t feed the bears.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

I really should read my own blog.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

Let me file that under fuck it.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 637: The Second Winter Campaign of Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia’s Genocidal Re-invasion Has Begun

War for Ukraine Day 637: The Second Winter Campaign of Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia’s Genocidal Re-invasion Has Begun

by | 25 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

Quick housekeeping note: the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is supposed to start tomorrow at 10:00 AM Gaza/Israel time. I’ll try to get a late morning update about that if there’s anything important. I still think the major issue is that Sinwar still does not have all the hostages, let alone all the women and children, does not know where they all are, and does not know what kind of condition they’re in. And that is going to a problem from the start.

The first snows have fallen across Ukraine. Requests to conserve power have been made. The second winter campaign has begun.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

A regular meeting in the Ramstein format was held, there are new packages of support for Ukraine and our warriors – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

22 November 2023 – 20:48

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just spoken with Argentina’s President-elect Milei about how to make our relations – Ukraine and Argentina, Ukraine and Latin America – more active. I congratulated Mr. Milei on his election. I invited him to visit Ukraine, and it would be an important signal – a signal of non-indifference. Of course, I informed him about all we have already achieved in the implementation of our Peace Formula. I invited Argentina to show its leadership in joint peacemaking efforts.

Today a regular meeting in the Ramstein format was held – the 17th one already. There are also new packages of support for Ukraine – for our warriors. These include shells and missiles, electronic warfare and drones, new capacities for our air defense. A corresponding coalition has been established – the air defense development coalition. The leaders in its organization are Germany and France. I am grateful for this leadership. I am also grateful to every country that participates in these efforts, which enable our cities and villages to be more protected from Russian attacks. Not everything can be said publicly yet, but Ukraine’s sky shield is getting more powerful literally every month.

In the near future, I expect Defense Minister Umerov to report on the results of this Ramstein.

I held a meeting today on our European and Euro-Atlantic integration. On what needs to be done now – by mid-December – for the European Union to fulfill its promise to start negotiations with Ukraine in response to our progress – to the fulfillment of all the recommendations of the European Commission. At this meeting, we also discussed how we are moving forward in our relations with NATO – in our integration into the Alliance.

It was a fairly broad group of participants – all the sectors involved, all our institutions we expect activity from. The Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Prime Minister, the relevant Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Head of the Office and his relevant deputies, as well as the Chief of the General Staff.

First of all, we discussed the transition of our Defense Forces to NATO standards. In various spheres. Much has already been done. But procurement, planning, and many internal procedures deserve to be modernized.

We also need to take the steps that our warriors are waiting for. There is also a clear commitment of the Ministry of Defense to the relevant decisions. There is also good, meaningful communication with partners in the Alliance – we are truly working together to further strengthen our Euro-Atlantic community.

As for the European Union, today we agreed on a list of measures and steps that can add the necessary unity to the European community. Most of our partners clearly see our progress – Ukraine’s full implementation of all recommendations. We are also implementing now what we could have done closer to spring, according to the agreed plans. Everyone in the EU needs to see how serious Ukraine is, how clearly we are doing what is required.

And one more thing.

Today, the usual morning conference call featured several important reports.

The work of our export corridor has yielded positive results, with almost 5.5 million tons of cargo already shipped. Africa, Asia, Europe – from Spain to China. I thank everyone who ensures safety in the Black Sea and who works in our ports.

Today we also heard reports from the military on the situation on the frontline. In all those areas where it is particularly difficult now. The Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka sectors. I thank each of our soldiers, sergeants and officers whose resilience is now protecting the whole of Ukraine, each of them who is destroying the occupiers with power and courage.

The 14th, 53rd, 110th separate mechanized brigades and the 57th and 59th separate motorized infantry brigades should be especially recognized for their results these days. Warriors, I am proud of each of you! I am grateful for your strength!

I thank everyone in our society who helps the Defense Forces, who works to make the whole country stronger, and who does not forget that the success of Ukraine is the success of people’s resistance, people’s defense, our maximum unity for the sake of defense and freedom for the whole of Ukraine, for all Ukrainians. Anyone who adds to Ukraine’s confidence, anyone who adds to Ukraine’s results, adds to the guarantees of our independence as well.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today was 17th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

We have some updates on what is being provided in this round of aid:

Germany is one of the leaders in providing military assistance to Ukraine.

We are grateful to our German friends for their new military aid package, which includes:
◾️20 Marder IFVs with ammunition
◾️1 Winsent-1 mine clearing tank
◾️5 Warthog Ambulance tracked carriers
◾️2,380 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️2,428 Crypto Phones
◾️2 8×8 HX81 truck tractor trains
◾️2 semi-trailers
◾️9 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
◾️2 ambulances

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

The National Assembly of Bulgaria ratified the Agreement between the 🇧🇬 Ministry of Internal Affairs and the 🇺🇦 Ministry of Defense for the free provision of armored transport equipment (100 Armored Personal Carriers).

We are grateful to the Bulgarian partners for important military support in our fight against aggression.

🇺🇦🤝🇧🇬
#StandWithUkraine

Russian occupied Crimea:

Bucha:

A bit of the winter wonderland that has descended upon Bucha overnight, FYI.

It’s the town’s eastern part that lies in a quiet pinewood.
I love this freshness and this pre-Christmas time vibe.

After all the suffering and all the blood it saw under Russian occupation, Bucha deserves peace, mulled wine, and warmth in those houses.

Kyiv:

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Avdiivka:

The battle around Avdiivka has been already far more costly for the Russian army than Vuhledar. But what makes it even worse for them is the usage of cluster ammunition, something what wasn’t available back then. They have a devastating effect on those meat waves.

Source: https://t.me/godsworkfpv/20

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

 

Putin had some thoughts he decided he’d share with the world today:

Russia violates:

UN Charter 45
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 70
Helsinki Accords 75
Belovezha Accords 91–92
Budapest Memo 94
Black Sea Fleet Treaty 97
Friendship Treaty 98
Treaty on Azov Sea & Kerch Strait ‘03
Karkiv pact ‘10

But Ukraine is “unwilling to engage in talks”.

The European Council on Foreign Relations Gustav Gressel has thoughts on those still trying to push Ukraine into a ceasefire with Russia. First tweet from the thread, the remainder from the Thread Reader App.

2/ Roughly two “types” of questions popping up:
1⃣ “Now that the counter-offensive failed, should we put pressure on Zelenskyy to negotiate?”THis question implies that 🇺🇦 does not want to negotiate and all we need to do is armwrest them into it. That is nonsense. 

3/ Putin does not want to negotiate, he wants to win the war. He made huge investments, financially and personally in this war. He knows that the war came at huge costs for 🇷🇺 and the prise should be worth it. 
4/ For Putin, the war is not only about 🇺🇦. Conquering it serves as precondition to re-instate 🇷🇺 as a great power, and dominant military power in and over 🇪🇺.
This is the prize worth the effort. The more effort put into it, the harder it is to track back. 
5/ Putin and his entourage have time and again repeated that their war-aims have not changed since Feb 24th 2022. It is all or nothing.
To even start negotiations, 🇷🇺 puts up demands equal to 🇺🇦 surrender as precondition: withdrawal from all “annexed” territory … 
6/ … disbanding the 🇺🇦 armed forces. Note, Moscow does not promise it will stop shooting if Kyiv did so. They demand this before the Kremlin even ponders about whether to talk at all or not.
Of course they don’t expect Kyiv to fulfil their demands, but they don’t care. 

7/ The Kremlin does not want to negotiate anyway.

Ironically, short-cutting military supplies to 🇺🇦 will even further decrease 🇷🇺 appetite for negotiations. Why talk if you win anyway? Why a compromise if in a couple of years it’s all yours? Why settle for less? 

8/ If a 🇺🇦 victory would be closer, the Kremlin would suddenly embrace negotiations to keep as much it controls. But we are very far from that, and thanks to the lack of leadership and courage in the West, we won’t get there in the near future. 
9/ Type 2⃣ question: “But @JoeBiden would really need a result in the war, so he will ask Zelenskyy to accept any ceasfire…”
Why would Putin agree to that? Why should Putin accept 20% of Ukraine, if @realDonaldTrump has a fair chance of winning? He’d get all of Ukraine then. 
10/ Putin is an _______ (insert swearword of choice), but he is not stupid.
He will do nothing that facilitates Bidens re-election. Why should he. And he will not settle for less if more is on the table. 
11/ Russia has ramped up the military-industrial complex to win a war of attrition. They can continue this war into 2027, and working hard to go beyond that.
Europe has not increased its military output beyond some kinds of ammunition and will run out of MBT, IFV, and other .. 
12/ … systems to supply Ukraine by the end of 2024. The US has not accelerated refurbishing stored equiment to the pace needed and is not willing to commit larger ressources to the effort.
The issue of sustaining the Ukrainian Air Force in the fight is still unresolved. 

13/ If nothing changes to the better for 🇺🇦, Putin stands a very good chance winning the war.

Why should he negotiate?

The Financial Times Editorial Board voices their concern that the US’s and the EU’s support for Ukraine is wavering.

These are nervous times in Kyiv. The counteroffensive that Ukraine had hoped would begin to drive out Russian troops — and convince its allies that they were backing a winner — has not produced the hoped-for breakthrough; Ukraine’s head of the armed forces has called the situation on the ground a “stalemate”, though there have been some signs of progress in recent days. The next multibillion-dollar aid package from its single biggest supporter, the US, is in limbo due to congressional wrangling. The Israel-Hamas conflict is consuming the attention of many western capitals. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy frets that the war in his country has become “like a show” that its allies are tired of watching.

In truth, support for Ukraine remains solid among the top US and European leadership. Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, denied a report that US and EU officials had quietly begun talking to Kyiv about what potential peace talks with Russia might entail — though he warned of harm to Ukraine’s military prospects unless Congress approved aid soon. A bigger question is how long the top-level commitment can be sustained if, as seems ever more likely, the war becomes protracted. An even more alarming prospect is Donald Trump’s possible return as US president.

In wartime, perception can be as important as reality. There are concrete economic and military steps western allies should take that could help to convince Ukraine of their engagement for the long term. They would also provide a powerful demonstration for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who may feel for now that the odds have shifted in his favour in his gamble that he can outlast the west.

The EU must quickly find a way to agree its €50bn Ukraine Facility, which entails funding over four years — providing some guarantee of future western help — though a German constitutional court ruling has complicated Brussels’ plans for a budgetary top-up from member states. The bloc should also fast-track plans agreed last month to use billions of euros in earnings generated by frozen Russian assets.

Brussels is now debating a 12th round of sanctions, including a ban on Russian diamond imports. But the EU and US need to do more to close loopholes and tighten existing measures — including the key oil price cap which, as the Financial Times has reported, is being almost entirely circumvented. The EU must clamp down harder on the transfer of strategic technology such as microchips, and spend more on customs enforcement at its borders.

On the military front, allies need to speed up the supply of fighter jets, and training of Ukrainian pilots, to provide vital air cover to ground forces. They need a more systematic approach to the supply of arms — rather than simply donating stocks of surplus and outdated weapons. EU capitals should mobilise investment and cajole arms manufacturers into expanding capacity, by pooling orders and signing them over a longer term. General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has provided a useful shopping list of the high-tech tools of electronic warfare that Kyiv needs if it is to tip the military balance.

Finally, EU leaders must invite Ukraine to start membership talks, despite troublemaking by Hungary, at a summit next month. EU Council president Charles Michel, on a reassurance mission to Kyiv this week, called this a “fundamental day”. Once the conflict is over, Ukraine has to know it is on a path to be a full part of the “European family”. Until then, Kyiv needs confidence that its allies are ready to provide the help it needs to prevail — or to enter any eventual negotiations with the strongest possible hand.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Like everyone else, I know NFTs are a scam. But you do your update with the daily Patron content you have, not the daily Patron content you want.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Зізнавайтесь, хто вже чекає Новий Рік і ялинку?🤭🎄

♬ som original – mii (taylor’s version) 🎄

Machine translation of the caption:

Admit it, who is already waiting for the New Year and the Christmas tree? 🤭🎄

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

25Comments

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    I knew nothing about Milei aside from people comparing him to Trump, so I was pleasantly surprised to see him referred to in a headline as “Far-right politician and Ukraine supporter Javier Milei”. I just assumed he’d be yet another strongman lining up to polish putin’s balls.

    I was trying to figure out how stupid and/or evil someone has to be to believe a single word putin says, but then I realized I don’t want to know.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    wjca

    @Alison Rose: I was pleasantly surprised to see him referred to in a headline as “Far-right politician and Ukraine supporter Javier Milei”.

    I was pleasantly surprised (make that amazed) as well.  Delighted, at least if he holds to it.  But happy surprises are the best.

  5. 5.

    wjca

    Why would Putin agree to that? Why should Putin accept 20% of Ukraine, if @realDonaldTrump has a fair chance of winning? He’d get all of Ukraine then.

    A simple thought exercise: the it is a year from now, and TIFG has (please God!) lost and lost convincingly.  Including costing the Republicans both the House and the Senate.  Meaning US support for Ukraine is on an upswing.  OK, it’s admittedly a best case scenario, but suppose….

    At that point does Putin decide that, even if he could keep the war going a few more years, it’s time to try to negotiate to just keep what he’s got and wait to try again later?  That is, after all, essentially what he did with Crimea and the Donbas.  Or does he feel so invested that he just can’t quit, no matter what?  And, if he insists on sticking to it, does the rest of Russia’s elite then decide that, notwithstanding the lack of an obvious alternative, Putin has to go?

    EDT: unanswerable questions, I know.  But occasionally it is worthwhile,  i think, to look at the best cases, rather than the worst ones.

  8. 8.

    hrprogressive

    Reading that thread, it’s hard to feel like the West in general really wants to wish the entire problem away.

    Which means it’s hard not to be concerned that eventually Putin will win the attrition war.

    All while these same countries can barely contain themselves to “help” Israel.

    We’re boned, aren’t we?

  10. 10.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Damn, I was hoping UKR was re-branding NFT as “No Fucking Treaty”*.

    * ETA – I’d buy those stamps

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    Just a FYI, which I’ll deal with more fully tomorrow:

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: It used to be “Russophobic” to express that sentiment.  Slowly/slowly,  at least in Europe, people are starting to realize this fact (what you stated) the truth of what you stated.  But I must demur: they’re not maniacs: just imperialist bastards.

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: Being maniacs implies a certain level of unhinged-ness.  I actually dispute that Putin is unhinged.  He’s just got an entirely different set of values from you and me.  As it turns out, his values aren’t *so* different from those of (say) Darth Cheney.  Or Oliver North.  Or RoNnIe RaYgUn.  And I doubt we’d say that any of those people were maniacs; we’d just call  them imperialist scum.

  17. 17.

    Gvg

    @Alison Rose: I do. If Putin died, I think Russia would turn inward in a fight for who succeeds him for at least a short time and Ukraine would not be a top priority. All factions would probably accuse the others of losing Ukraine, but they still wouldn’t be able to coordinate for a time. It might be worse after, if who ever wins made that a point of pride and promise, but for some time Ukraine could really kick some Russian butt. They would need to use it well. Not likely to last.

  18. 18.

    Alison Rose

    @Chetan Murthy: A maniac doesn’t have to run around drooling and screaming waving a machete or something. It does not require appearing unhinged.

     

    @Gvg: I’m no expert, but Adam has noted many times that just getting rid of putin would not immediately end the war or solve the problem of russian imperialism. In fact, he’s said that whomever would slither into putin’s place might even be worse. I wouldn’t shed a tear over putin dying, but I wouldn’t start cheering that the war was over, either.

  19. 19.

    Damien

    Wars end when one group either can’t or won’t keep fighting, right? After Bucha and Mariupol, and the realities of what Russia has done to the civilians, I don’t think we’re going to see Ukraine’s will to fight ebb anytime soon. And Russia has apparently ramped its war machine into gear for the long haul.

    so. Looks like either Russia loses the will, or Ukraine loses the ability, to fight. Which do we think comes first?

  20. 20.

    wjca

    @Alison Rose: just getting rid of putin would not immediately end the war or solve the problem of russian imperialism.

    Probably not.  But the Russian attacks might well cut way back, while those running the military are focused on staying on the right side of whomever may emerge in power.  Which would be an opening for Ukraine.   A narrow one, perhaps, but consider what they’ve managed to accomplish without one.  So, not an end to the war, in the sense that Russia might still hold some Ukrainian territory.  But rather less than they started the war with.

    And not an end to Russia’s imperial ambitions.  But, on top of what they’ve lost already, a noticeable reduction in its ability to act on those ambitions.  They could still successfully invade the stans, for example.  Or take the rest of Georgia.  But Europe would be out of reach any time soon.

    More likely, I think, would be a focus on electronic attacks, disinformation, subversion, etc.  They’ve got a lot of useful idiots already on payroll, so they wouldn’t be starting from scratch.

  21. 21.

    Parfigliano

    Putin dead isnt going to stop Russia.  Russia dead economically, diplomatically, will.  Start killing the right people who supply them.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Alison Rose: Milei is an economist, that makes him different from the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, & Putin. However, he is a staunch disciple of the Austrian School of economics, which makes him a hard libertarian. Think if Ron Paul had won the U.S. presidency (Rand Paul is more of a grifter).

    I think he will ruin Argentina, far beyond the Peronists. The Argentinian stock market has been on a strong rally since his election, which probably means the global financial capital interests are chomping at the bits to loot the country’s assets.

  23. 23.

    Princess

    On Israel — so we have been told that the Hamas assault was intended to grab hostages that could be used in a big prisoner swap. Makes sense from events. But after six weeks Sinwar still doesn’t know where they are? Knows so little he can’t even cobble together fifty women and children to hand over out of 200+? Something isn’t holding together. Is it a sign of conflict among the jihadists? Is he lying? Are most of them already dead?

    on Putin’s death: obvs the people around him are just as bad or worse. But how will the succession work? Might we hope they fight each other enough to weaken them and Russia?

  24. 24.

    Subsole

    @Parfigliano:

    That might get us a war with China, sadly. I seem to recall reading that China is selling the Russians utility vehicles, at minimum. And I believe the Chinese have been violating the sanctions regime – albeit in a very circuitous and deniable manner.

    It will certainly get us a war with Iran and North Korea. Both of whom are absolutely supplying Russia.

  25. 25.

    Barry

    @YY_Sima Qian: “Milei is an economist, that makes him different from the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, & Putin. However, he is a staunch disciple of the Austrian School of economics, which makes him a hard libertarian. Think if Ron Paul had won the U.S. presidency (Rand Paul is more of a grifter).”

     

    That’s like saying that he’s a geographer, and a flat-earther.  Those are contradictory.

Comments are closed.