Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 643: How Putin Actually Started His War Against Ukraine

War for Ukraine Day 643: How Putin Actually Started His War Against Ukraine

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Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Proekt Media has produced a new documentary detailing how Putin actually went about starting his war against Ukraine.

There’s this new documentary by Russian journalists that you should definitely see and show your friends.

I hope automated subtitles on YouTube will be helpful.

It’s the story of how Russia & the Kremlin unleashed a war in Ukraine back in 2013 and 2014 to reinstate control over its rebellious former colony — also invented the false narrative of ‘Nazi Ukraine’ and ‘the Western intrusion’ to justify its imperialistic colonial war.

Documents, intercepted calls by senior Russian officials and Russian collaborationists in Crimea & Donbas, a detailed timeline of the Kremlin instigating this war.

I mean, we’ve been seeing this shit for 10 years, but the scale of bare-faced lies, hypocrisy, and absolute bloodlust was making me clench my fists as I was listening to the story of Russia’s abominable war on us.

Historians of the future will be shocked to see how unbelievably dumb and immoral this all was.

Here’s the full video:

And here’s Proekt’s description of the documentary:

Nov 28, 2023
‘His War’ is Andrey Zakharov’s historical investigation into Vladimir Putin and the war he unleashed in Ukraine back in 2014. For ten years now, journalists from around the world have been gathering evidence on how exactly this war began. In this film, we have compiled all the evidence together.

This includes wiretaps of conversations among Russian officials and separatists, email leaks, and most importantly, confessions from the participants of the ‘Russian Spring.’

Why did Putin specifically provoke the Euromaidan? How did the Kremlin prepare for the annexation of Crimea? And why did Russia’s intervention in Ukraine’s internal affairs become the main cause of the war that started in 2014? Find the answers to these questions in the second film of the Proekts’ series, ‘Based on Real Events‘

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are preparing some serious long-range stuff to make sure the occupiers feel the might of Ukraine – address by the President of Ukraine

28 November 2023 – 20:28

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just held a special, lengthy and detailed meeting of the Staff. First up – fortification. We are significantly enhancing our fortifications. There were detailed reports at all levels: The General Staff, the Ministry of Defense, the Prime Minister, regional authorities, commanders of the operational and strategic military formations. All finances are available. All decisions are in place. There should be comprehensive corresponding work in the communities. Everything is fully itemized – our country will definitely have enough mines and concrete. We need greater speed and efficiency, and everyone who is responsible for this has clear tasks.

There was also an important analysis of recent attacks against Ukraine – missiles, massive drone strikes. We analyzed the tactics of our air defense. There is a clear need to develop and reinforce our mobile firing groups, as well as to get all highly effective air defense systems. We separately reviewed the work of Patriots and NASAMS – everything is highly effective, and I’m grateful to the partners who assist us specifically with these systems. The Air Force Commander and other relevant commanders, as well as the Ministry of Defense have been given the necessary instructions.

There were, of course, reports from commanders on all fronts. Special attention was paid to the Donetsk directions: Avdiivka, Maryinka, and the Bakhmut area. Over the last 24 hours, the most intense hostilities were observed there. I thank all our warriors for their strength and resilience. The Kupyansk direction – I want to particularly highlight the holding of our positions there. We also discussed our actions on the southern fronts.

Today, I held a separate meeting with the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, and I can say it was optimistic. We’re preparing, among other things, some serious long-range stuff to make sure the occupiers feel the might of Ukraine.

And one more thing.

I have signed the law of Ukraine on the state budget for the next year. It’s evident that its main priority is protection against Russian aggression. However, we’re also taking into account the social needs of our people and fulfilling our country’s social obligations in full. During full-scale war, it’s incredibly important that every citizen in need of state support receives it. And everyone who is currently creating jobs, who is preserving businesses and even developing them, everyone who is in Ukraine and with Ukraine, working honestly and supporting others – they all support our defense and our progress towards Ukrainian goals.

To protect and strengthen our independence, to protect our people, to restore normal, decent living conditions – to the maximum extent possible. I thank everyone who fights and works for this cause! Glory to all Ukrainian warriors! Glory to our powerful people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine’s GUR has been infiltrated by an assassin.

Babel Ukraine has the details:

Marianna Budanova, the wife of the head of the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), was poisoned with heavy metals. The woman is in the hospital.

Babel was informed about this by intelligence sources.

After a prolonged deterioration of her health, she was hospitalized.

“The course of treatment is now being completed, and then there will be a check-up by the doctors,” said the interlocutor at the GUR and added that the woman was diagnosed with heavy metal damage.

“These substances are not used in any way in everyday life and military affairs. Their presence may indicate a purposeful attempt to poison a specific person,” the intelligence agency said.

Sources confirmed that attempts were also made on Kyrylo Budanov before and after the full-scale invasion.

Currently, an investigation is being conducted into the alleged attempt to kill the wife of the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

  • In an interview with Radio Svoboda, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that his wife, Marianna, currently lives with him in his office, although she does not work in the state administration of Ukraine. Since June 2021, she has been working as an adviser to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko.
  • Kyrylo and Marianna Budanovs got married in August 2013. In October 2022, Budanova gave an interview to the Ukrainian magazine Elle, in which she talked about herself. She reported that she is a psychologist by education, and from 2015 to 2017 she was engaged in volunteering at the Main Military Hospital in Kyiv.

The GUR is no doubt conducting a mole hunt.

Speaking of the GUR:

Speaker Johnson could start by putting his  money where his mouth is and putting a clean supplemental Ukraine bill on the floor. I doubt he will because he knows that the minute he does that there will be a motion to vacate the chair. The strategic malpractice in DC is all playing out while time slips away in Ukraine.

Avdiivka:

It never ceases to amaze me when reflecting that a 1,000 dollar drone can easily destroy hardware worth 1000 times and more than the drone itself. The BTR-82A can cost around 1.4 million USD, and yet it takes a second and all is but ashes.

The Russian BTR was destroyed somewhere in the Avdiivka sector.

Source of video: @NOELreports

#Ukraine #Avdiivka

Soledar:

The next tweet in Ponomarenko’s tweet is of the Russians executing Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, who is memorialized in the statue in the picture above, for telling them Glory to Ukraine when ordered to dig a ditch for them. So don’t click through if that would bother you.

Sumy Oblast:

The Dnipro River, Russian occupied Kherson:

Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Donetsk Oblast:

Yurivka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

This apparently was a meeting of law enforcement collaborators that ended rather abruptly.

Helsinki, Finland:

From The Financial Times:

Finland will close all land borders with Russia after Helsinki accused Moscow of deliberately orchestrating a surge in asylum seekers as part of an “influence” operation.

Following an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Finland announced that it would close Raja-Jooseppi in the far north, its last remaining border crossing with Russia, from Thursday until December 13.

Petteri Orpo, Finland’s prime minister, said the decision had been made after learning of “new information” this week that strengthened the government’s belief that Russia was deliberately sending migrants over the border.

“The phenomenon seen at the border in recent weeks must be stopped,” Orpo said at a press conference. “This is not only about the number of visitors but the phenomenon itself. This is about Russia’s influence [on] activities and we do not accept that.”

Helsinki has accused Russia of trying to destabilise Finland’s national security after nearly a thousand migrants attempted to use its eastern border crossings this month, up from just a few dozen in previous months.

Finland, which joined Nato in April, claims the rapid increase is “hybrid warfare”, a tactic used to stoke tensions and increase pressure on the country without resorting to open conflict.

Earlier this month, Finland closed its seven other checkpoints with Russia along their 1,340km border, claiming Moscow could be using the migrant traffic as cover to smuggle soldiers and criminals into the EU.

Finland’s interior ministry said the previous closures had failed to stop the traffic and the risk of more migrants attempting to cross Finland’s land borders posed “a serious threat to national security and public order”.

Under new rules, people seeking asylum in Finland must apply at airports and ports, the interior ministry added. Cargo rail traffic between Russia and Finland remains open.

Tensions between the two countries have risen since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, prompting Finland to abandon decades of neutrality and apply to become Nato’s 31st member.

More at the link!

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

An update from last May:

⚡️The spokesman of the Air Force of 🇺🇦Ukraine confirmed the destruction of 🇷🇺Russian aircraft over the Bryansk region in May of last year with the Patriot air defense system.

Yuriy Ignat told what he calls May 13, 2023 “the Bryansk massacre”. Then, “thanks to non-standard actions”, the Patriot air defense units destroyed five aircraft at once in five minutes – one Su-34 fighter, one Su-35, two rare Mi-8MTPR-1 helicopters and another Mi-8.

Ignat added that shortly after these events, Patriot shot down another Su-35 over the Black Sea.

For you drone enthusiasts:

Obligatory:

From Foreign Affairs: (emphasis mine)

On November 1, Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, changed the debate about his country’s war with Russia with a statement. “Just like in the first World War,” he said in an interview with The Economist, the Ukrainian and Russian militaries “have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” Unless a massive leap in military technology gives one side a decisive advantage, “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” These words prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to issue a rebuttal. The war “is not a stalemate, I emphasize this,” Zelensky argued. A deputy head of the office of the president noted that the comments stirred “panic” among Ukraine’s Western allies.

Such fear is understandable at a moment when the U.S. Congress, by far Ukraine’s largest source of aid, is deciding whether to sustain its military support. Before Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in June 2023, Washington evinced optimism that the Ukrainian military could swiftly achieve major military successes and secure Kyiv a stronger negotiating position to force concessions from Moscow. This has not happened. Not much territory has changed hands, and high hopes have yielded to a dispiriting narrative of impasse. A divided Congress likely has no “mountain of steel,” as U.S. officials have called the materiel they gave Ukraine in early 2023, to provide for a renewed counteroffensive in 2024, and European countries are falling short in the assistance they have promised. In purely military terms, Ukraine’s path to victory is unclear.

But Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality. They should accept and prepare for a multiyear war and for the long-term containment of Russia instead of hoping for either a quick Ukrainian triumph or, absent that, an imminent negotiated solution. An overwhelming victory is not guaranteed by either Ukrainian valor or Russian folly. And any hope that negotiations right now could benefit Ukraine is naive: Russia is not becoming more malleable or more amenable to compromise. In fact, the Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the whole international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now than they were a year ago.

Russia continues marshaling resources for its devastating war. And Russians’ support for Putin’s invasion has not collapsed: not when Ukraine’s Western allies imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, not when some Russians protested mobilization, and not when the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin staged his curious rebellion in June 2023.

But the war is not lost for Ukraine. Far from it. Enamored of Kyiv’s early successes and high morale, Ukraine’s supporters became accustomed to stunning Ukrainian triumphs. Yet this David-versus-Goliath framing of the war now generates too much pessimism when Ukrainian forces struggle or come to a deadlock with Russian troops. Even a stalemate, as frustrating as it seems, represents a huge accomplishment. Before February 2022, the idea that Ukraine could achieve military parity with Russia would have seemed fanciful. With the West’s help, however, Ukraine has deterred its much more powerful neighbor. Over a year into the war, Russia has been unable to take Kyiv or any major Ukrainian city besides Mariupol. Despite its vast economic and military resources, Russia has not been truly on the offensive since the early summer of 2022.

To make progress now, Western and Ukrainian leaders need to rally around achievable strategic goals. The most pressing is the containment of Russian forces—not only to protect all that Ukraine has already accomplished but also to render Russia’s presence on Ukrainian territory as insecure as possible. Russian positions must be continuously pressured in a forward-leaning approach. This will not be doable without U.S. military support, justified not by the claim that victory is around the corner but by the argument that containing Russia is a core European and U.S. interest. Containment is a policy that is already succeeding in Ukraine. Failure would be giving up on it.

During the war’s first six months, Ukraine was chronically underestimated. Then in September and October 2022, Ukrainian forces punched through Russian lines around Kharkiv and expelled Russian forces from Kherson. Western allies came to see these battlefield triumphs as setting a precedent. Ahead of last June’s counteroffensive, which was planned over the course of months, many in the West believed that the Ukrainian military’s innovativeness, determination, talent for strategy, and flexible command structures would confer the same advantages they did in 2022. By the summer of 2023, the war had already become grueling and devastating, and the hope was that Ukraine could fairly quickly change the momentum for good.

The West’s optimism about the counteroffensive also stemmed from the scale and quality of its military assistance to Ukraine. Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles. In Foreign Affairs in June 2023, Gideon Rose argued that “Western military support and Ukraine’s remarkable ability to transform it into battlefield success” could carry Ukraine to victory and restore its pre-2014 borders.

The Russian military, meanwhile, appeared to suffer from poor coordination, poor motivation, and a general sense of purposelessness. With the counteroffensive, Kyiv planned to cut through Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and destroy Russian morale. Just two weeks after the counteroffensive began with assaults in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and drone strikes inside Russia, Moscow’s accelerating misfortunes culminated in Prigozhin’s mutiny. For weeks, Putin’s grip on power seemed more fragile than it had ever been.

Just a few months later, however, the situation looks less propitious for Ukraine. Putin has stabilized his government and his military command structure. As of late 2023, constraints on resources and manpower are more evident on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian one. The long preparation time required to ready the counteroffensive allowed Russia to build defenses, particularly mine belts, which nullified many of Ukraine’s advantages in sophisticated weaponry. To regain momentum, Ukraine has asked the West for ammunition, electronic warfare and mine-breaching technology, longer-range missiles, and more planes. But as Ukraine’s needs grew, the United States fractured politically. A small band of Republican legislators are now using their leverage over moderate Republicans to try to halt funding for Ukraine. Mike Johnson, the new Speaker of the House, has voted repeatedly against Ukraine support packages but recently spoke more favorably about backing Kyiv. It is impossible to know, however, if he has the intent or the ability to ensure a useful level of assistance.

Ukraine’s stocks of ammunition and weaponry are already running short. A diminution of or end to U.S. military support would have an immediate effect on Ukraine’s battlefield performance, especially its air defenses. Those air defenses rely on interceptors, a component the United States can provide. If the U.S. government becomes less willing to fund Ukraine’s military efforts, no other country can fill the vacuum. European countries lack the ammunition stockpiles and the military production capacity. In March 2023, the EU pledged to send a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024, but they are at risk of falling short. As of late November 2023, less than a third of the promised supplies had been delivered.

Even if the United States and Europe fulfill all their commitments to help Kyiv militarily, the war may not swing decisively in Ukraine’s favor. The United States has approved the delivery of coveted F-16s in 2024, but they may be less helpful when they eventually arrive. According to Zaluzhny, Russia has improved its air defenses and will maintain “superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles, and ammunition for a considerable time.” As the war enters its second winter, Russia has been stockpiling missiles to attack the Ukrainian electrical grid and thus undermine Ukraine’s morale and economy.

These bolded and italicized paragraphs are both in logical opposition to each other and also the reason that Ukraine finds itself making slow, though real, progress. Take this paragraph:

The West’s optimism about the counteroffensive also stemmed from the scale and quality of its military assistance to Ukraine. Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles. In Foreign Affairs in June 2023, Gideon Rose argued that “Western military support and Ukraine’s remarkable ability to transform it into battlefield success” could carry Ukraine to victory and restore its pre-2014 borders.

More at the link!

The key portion is “Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles.” The pace wasn’t initially slow, THE PACE HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW!!!! IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW BECAUSE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S STRATEGY IS RISK AVERSE!!!!

And that’s why this assessment in the penultimate paragraph is true: “Ukraine’s stocks of ammunition and weaponry are already running short.” Yes they are, because we are dribbling stuff to them. Because the Biden administration’s strategy for supporting Ukraine DID NOT INCLUDE GETTING A LONG TERM LEGISLATIVE FUNDING PACKAGE THROUGH CONGRESS WHEN THE DEMOCRATS HAD THE MAJORITY IN BOTH CHAMBERS!!!! This strategic malpractice was the result of hubris. The belief that the Democrats would hold their five seat majority in the House despite the additional extreme gerrymanders and extreme voter suppression that the Republicans put into place in the states where they have trifectas prior to the 2022 midterms. This was aboidable and preventable. But it would have taken a far better senior national security team than the Biden administration has. Just being better than Trump and his team is neither acceptable, nor sufficient.

The failure to provide both the necessary and sufficient support to Ukraine is f”or want of a nail” elevated to official American national security policy and strategy. It’s a disgraced. We should be ashamed.

That’s enough for tonight.

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18Comments

  2. 2.

    Another Scott

    I came across this today and thought it was interesting. A story at DefenseOne.com comparing US vs EU ramps of 155mm shell production.

    […]

    Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.

    The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.

    Bush said the service now aims to boost its monthly production to 36,000 by March, 60,000 by September, 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025, and 100,000 by the end of calendar 2025 — two and half times more than Wormuth’s year-old goal.

    As part of this push, the Army has added shifts, bought robots, and expanded its ammunition plants, Bush said.

    The Army’s investment has also been inexpensive relative to other Army programs, where $3 million can be considered a cheap price for certain advanced weapons, like hypersonic missiles.

    The Army funded its original planned increase from 14,000 to 24,000 shells with $1.45 billion. In November, it announced a further $1.5 billion.

    In November, Bush said the Army was counting on Congress to approve $3.1 billion for the effort in a 2024 supplemental-funding bill.

    […]

    The countries of the European Union began with a head start, producing about 230,000 155mm shells a year—about one-third more than the U.S. The EU also has a better recent record for approving annual spending plans.

    By February 2023, European production was at 300,000 rounds annually, according to Estonian defense officials. By November, capacity had risen again, though assessments differ. European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton suggested that Europe could now make some 400,000 rounds annually. Estonia’s Pevkur, speaking at a November media roundtable, put the figure between 600,000 and 700,000—and said it would reach one million rounds in 2024.

    In March, the EU announced it would spend 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) to send one million 155mm shells to Ukraine within a year. The money is split between paying countries to send stockpiled shells to Ukraine and acquiring new shells from EU members and Norway under a joint procurement scheme.

    But the EU will not meet its goal this year, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed recently. In September, Estonian defense official Kusti Salm said the plan would likely be fulfilled by mid-2024.

    And in the long term, Pevkur said, even more shells will be required—to backfill stocks, support NATO regional plans, and keep Ukraine in the fight.

    “My estimation is that we have to produce in the next ten years around 3 million rounds in a year,” the Estonian minister said.

    […]

    Unlike the U.S., European 155mm production is primarily in the hands of the commercial market. That means that European countries can incentivize production increases through purchases, but cannot order factories to invest in automation, double shifts, or build new plants, as the U.S. has.

    “There really isn’t any government that can command industry to produce more, they have to place orders through contracts,” said CFR’s Loss.

    European munitions firms, meanwhile, have few opportunities to raise money from private hands, thanks to regulations on banks and arms makers, Loss said. They therefore have trouble increasing production merely on the expectation of higher orders.

    […]

    More at the link.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Johnson can go fuck himself. After the line quoted in the tweet, he starts babbling about “our own border policies” and how these two things have to go together because argle bargle reasons. He’s not a good liar. He doesn’t give a single shit if putin marches through Europe.

    And hot damn am I tired of all these people spilling all these words who refuse to recognize what you’ve stated here and many other times. The war is still going and will continue for a long while and is getting more difficult and all that because the west fucking allowed it. We all wanna pat ourselves on the backs for how much we’ve done and refuse to admit how much more we should have done. Meanwhile Ukrainians are dying every day because other countries who are not at risk are led by wishy-washy bean counters. Before anyone says it, no I would obviously not rather have TIFG, but no one is above criticism, and this goes beyond just the US.

    Bah. Here’s a video of a soldier with a squirrel friend.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    TooTallTom

    Adam,
    Thank you for your continued work. I look forward to your updates each day. Before the summer counter-offensive, I thought that Ukraine was going to push east, toward Mariupol, to both retake the city and to cut off Crimea from Russian support via land from the east. Instead, the summer offensive pushed south, toward Crimea. If you wish, please provide your opinion on this choice of attack direction. Was the push to the south due to the importance of Crimea? Was it geography? Or was it due to other factors?

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TooTallTom: You’re most welcome. To answer your question, I think they pushed towards Crimea because of its strategic importance for Putin. So the push is not just a kinetic military action, it is also a PSYACT. The use of non PSYOP personnel and operations to achieve a PSYOP effect.

  6. 6.

    Martin

    @Another Scott: So, in WWII the US industrial base quite famously exceeded aircraft production goals and managed to turn out cargo ships faster than Germany could make torpedos to sink them. And we have this myth told by politicians that the US is so diminished that we’re just not capable of that any longer, and then Covid hit and we cranked out hundreds of millions of vaccine doses in a few months because the government backstopped equipment investment in vaccine production.

    It seems that it’s not really that hard to ramp production provided that the government makes a concerted effort to achieve the goal. It’s not like those production efforts in WWII didn’t come with a shitload of Pentagon ass-kicking itself. Once we get a scrap of leadership, we seem to have absolutely no problem pulling together what is necessary to get the job done, and unions are usually willing to pull out all the stops to get there.

    There is simply no excuse why we can’t make more artillery shells. They aren’t that complicated. The volume isn’t particularly high. The skills needed aren’t exotic. We don’t need to import anything. As a retired administrator, saying there’s some administrative structure blocking progress is fucking bullshit. Administrative structures only exist to facilitate efforts. If they’re in the way, tear them the fuck down. They aren’t important.

  7. 7.

    Martin

    @Adam L Silverman: This expansion near Kherson makes me nervous. It feels risky. Is it because it’s far enough behind the eastern front lines that Ukraine has opportunities – forces Russia to distribute their forces more? Or maybe because Russia has done such a good job freezing the action in the east through minefields and trenches that are lacking in the west?

  9. 9.

    SomeRandomGuy

    Gee, now that Russian journalists have maybe both-sides an imperialistic tyrant into power, perhaps US journalists can feel all smug studying the mistakes, and learning some valuable lessons.

    I’m not suggesting Russian journalists have been lax, necessarily. I’m merely suggesting that, from the tone of the thread re: the origins of the invasion, the US may learn lessons from another nation that they wouldn’t learn from a mirror. E.g., “Wow, in Russia, this blatantly corrupt act should have been included in every headline, but it was buried, only once rising as high as the 14th paragraph!”

    You know, like, TFG saying he needed a justice in 2020, “for the ballots,” i.e., one who would reliably vote to keep him in power. Or like Kushnior (KUSHner and juNIOR) meeting, purportedly with agents of the Russian government. Or… or… or….

    Now, it would have been a lot more dangerous for Russian journalists to learn lessons from us, but, geez, if we can learn some lessons from *them*… never mind, that’s crazy talk.

  11. 11.

    West of the Rockies

    Anyone read the BS propaganda opinion column in the WP today? Putin is winning,  dontchaknow?

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Martin: I’m getting ready to rack out. As it is now somewhere between late and early where I’m at. So if you don’t mind waiting, I will answer this in the actual body of tomorrow night’s update.

  13. 13.

    Villago Delenda Est

    “In war, even simple things are hard.” — some famous military historian whose name eludes me at the moment.

  16. 16.

    Chris

    @West of the Rockies:

    Anyone read the BS propaganda opinion column in the WP today? Putin is winning, dontchaknow?

    Sometime last December, all the NPR-brained people I knew suddenly started bleating the same narrative in unison – “Gosh, I feel so bad for the Ukrainians, but I just don’t see how they can win!”  You could see the narrative already picking up steam of how Ukraine would eventually be written off as a noble but unrealistic lost cause.

    Which is inevitable: as soon as any opinion gets mainstream enough in the Republican Party, the MSM immediately starts repeating a watered-down, more acceptable version of it.  And then the sheep who think the NYT/WP editorial board are the nation’s greatest thinkers start repeating it.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    @Martin: Sure, things can and should be more efficient.

    [ Insert long boring story about government office buildings not having AC in the summer or heat in the winter for months/years on end because of various constraints in getting repairs done or replacement equipment; insert long boring story about how long government purchases take even when “rushed”; insert long boring story about supply chains and difficulty in hiring people with the necessary skills, and not having the people to do the training; insert long boring story about how the systems are constrained by past responses to “waste and fraud” that get in the way of normal business, especially when work needs to be done quickly; insert long boring story about regulations on colors of money that can be spent on projects, environmental protection, historical significance, etc., that constrain physical plant upgrades; insert long boring story about the complications of the FAR and how people who are trained by their agency in it leave their current position soon thereafter for a higher paying one; etc. ]

    My take on the story is that the EU and NATO are having similar issues in getting production ramped up.  These are huge, complicated systems with lots of constraints in law and in funding.  Most everyone working in the systems are doing their best given all the constraints.  Some constraints can be worked around quickly by management fiat, some cannot.

    Things are moving.  Yes, it is infuriating that it has taken so long, but there are lots and lots more constraints now than there were 75+ years ago, and for many reasons (good and bad).

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: Earlier this year, I read that a limiting factor on 155mm shell production was the machines that fashion the metal casings. These complex tools typically take most of a year to deliver.

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