Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

American history and black history cannot be separated.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Be a wild strawberry.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

White supremacy is terrorism.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

I would gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 662: Let’s Clarify Something

War for Ukraine Day 662: Let’s Clarify Something

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I just want to clarify something from last night. I was not calling for a disinformation campaign in last night’s update. Rather I’m lamenting that we are way, way, way right of boom in dealing with Russia’s Information Warfare campaign largely because we are way, way, way right of boom in dealing with the largely non-kinetic world war that Putin declared at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 and that he has been waging on states and societies that he believes belong under Russian control, as well as the US, the EU, NATO, and others. I am very well aware of all the things that could go wrong with creating a disinformation program of our own. I wrote a manuscript on this back in the aughts with a colleague tied to US counterterrorism efforts over time. It started as a conference paper and went back all the way to the Palmer Raids to post 9-11 to look at what does and does not get classified as terrorism and/or a national security threat and what the executive, legislative, and judicial branch responses have been. No academic journal would even send it out for review. The acquisitions editor at the academic press that wanted us to just turn it into a book got overruled by the actual editor in chief. Everyone was scared to death to do anything with it. I’m very aware of the red lines. However, that does not mean that developing an effective counter-Information Warfare concept and process is not long overdue.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The key thing is that historically we have reached a decision: Ukraine will always be a part of the common European home – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

17 December 2023 – 20:23

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We are wrapping up this highly productive week, a historic one.

We have secured the decision of the European Council, for which we have been working all year, to open accession negotiations. In the coming days, we will officially initiate with the European Commission the process of assessing Ukrainian legislation for compliance with the EU acquis – the screening process. We are also preparing to work on the negotiation framework for Ukraine – we expect it in the spring. The negotiation process will not be easy, but the key thing is that historically we have reached a decision: Ukraine will always be part of our common European home. And I thank everyone who contributes to advancing the necessary European decisions – everyone who has been involved: politicians, civic leaders, and the peoples of various countries who equally believe in us, in Ukraine, and in Europe.

We continue our active work to ensure that next year will also include sufficient financial support programs for Ukraine. This includes bilateral programs with partner countries, programs at the EU level, as well as the process of using and confiscating Russian assets frozen in various jurisdictions. And this issue – the issue of frozen assets – was one of the very important decisions addressed during the negotiations this week. In particular, in the United States of America. Specifically, the G7 countries can demonstrate their leadership – the assets of the terrorist state and its affiliates should be used to support Ukraine, to protect lives and people from Russian terror. This will be fair. We are already preparing the necessary outlines for these decisions.

We maintain perfectly positive, meaningful relations with the Nordic countries – the visit to Norway and the Nordic – Ukrainian Summit have proved this once again. I am grateful for the unwavering desire to bring the victory of Ukraine, our people and our values closer. Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland – each country helps us, each treats us with absolute sincerity. Thank you!

I would also like to thank all the leaders who have dedicated this week as well to supporting our air defense, our warriors , and our defense prospects.

The week has restored attention to Ukraine in Latin America as well. The visit to Argentina last Sunday was indeed cordial and positive. Talks with the new President of Argentina – we wish success to him, his country, and the entire Argentine people. Meetings with the leaders of other countries in the region – Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador… This is one of the key tasks for Ukraine, a strategic objective – to extend our foreign policy beyond traditional directions. Our state, our interests, Ukrainian culture and our defense of international law must be represented and understood in all parts of the world, and this is a task for everyone who works on behalf of Ukraine and Ukrainians.

And one more thing.

I would like to recognize today the warriors of our National Guard, who, together with everyone are in battles, together with everyone are helping to save lives after Russian strikes, together with everyone are giving Ukraine more security. The 3rd operational brigade of the National Guard – Soldier Maksym Osipov and Junior Sergeant Vladyslav Moroz. I thank you guys for your performance! The 14th operational brigade – Junior Sergeant Serhiy Tykhenko and Captain Hryhoriy Tokar. Thank you! The 15th Sloviansk regiment of the National Guard – Junior Lieutenant Oleksandr Rohovskyi and Lieutenant Bohdan Shulika. Well done, warriors! The world helps when it sees that the state and the people themselves are doing everything to defend themselves, when they see that the country really has the potential to defend itself. And I thank everyone in Ukraine, all our people, who week after week prove to the world with their own strength – Ukraine will endure, maintain its independence, and prevail. And special gratitude to the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Air Force, and the Foreign Intelligence Service. This is the case when no specifics will be given. In a nutshell, it was powerful.

Glory to our people! Glory to Ukraine!

For those marking Advent on your calendars this season:

 

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 17

Today, we want to say thank you to our French (@Armees_Gouv) and Danish (@Forsvarsmin) partners for CAESAR self-propelled artillery systems.

In the capable hands of Ukrainian artillerymen, the CAESAR became a nightmare for occupiers. It can hit targets from more than 40 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy. This artillery system gets us one step closer to victory.

Tomorrow we’ll present another Weapon of Victory in our Advent Calendar.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

Obligatory:

Assistant to the President for National Security Jake Sullivan went on a podcast/video cast and had thoughts regarding Russia. I’m not saying they’re good thoughts. Edward Hunter Christie of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs explains why they’re not good thoughts.

https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1736151165325172895

Sullivan’s remarks on Russia (see video below): analytical, confident, but in my view wrong in important ways because of incorrect emotional and cultural biases. It seems to me a misguided case of projection to imagine that the Putin regime is so bothered about Russian conditions. Of course it’s not nothing to have lost over 300,000 men, but we know from available data that:
1: the regime doesn’t care
2: a big part of the population = obedient cattle
3: most unpleasant to the Western mind: many Russians up and down the social ladder *are* imperial-nationalists to varying degrees
4: liberal minority is afraid, many have fled, they have neither the stomach nor the skills to rebel
5: Putin regime strongly biases military recruitment towards ethnic minorities, poor provinces, convicted criminals
6: the war lasting longer is also an enabler for Putin. Regardless of whether this was the initial plan, he couldn’t go for a full national-socialist war economy in one day. But the more time goes by, the more he can.
7: the war in Ukraine is the gamble of the century for Russia, and their leaders know it. They will not give up unless brutally forced to do so.
8: Russia has a very long history of putting up with absurd and horrid domestic conditions without triggering a political crisis – potentially for decades
9: nor is any of this unique to Russia – fascist regimes of the past also held out and fought for considerably longer than their Western contemporaries were hoping they would.
It was **hard** to defeat Nazi Germany.
It was **hard** to defeat Tojo’s Japan.
But in the end, that’s the only thing that stopped them: extremely brutal and unrelenting military force until they were no longer *able* to fight.

The past four administrations have mishandled Putin and Russia. Presidents Bush (43), Obama, and Biden and their nat-sec teams have done so in normal ways. Largely being unable to actually listen to what Putin, his trusted agents and catspaws, and other senior Russian officials are telling us with both what they say and what they do. This is an all too common failing in national security work. We call it mirroring, which is being unable to actually assess what other states and non-state actors are doing from their perspective versus ours. The Trump administration, of course, did not mishandle Putin and Russia, they purposely sought to ally with Putin. As I and others documented here beginning in early 2016, Trump has been pursuing Putin in public and private for decades. Just as he’s been pursuing Xi and Kim since his presidency began in 2017.

One of the major reasons we are way, way, way right of boom is because the three of the four presidencies that were within normal parameters, followed by Trump’s slavish sycophancy towards Putin, have left us unprepared to deal with the strategic reality we face. Sullivan’s statements are just further evidence of this unfortunate reality and provide more evidence of how we’ve gotten to this point.

Major General Budanov, the Commander of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), is now publicly calling for a mobilization to ensure that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not run short of personnel:

Here’s the whole video from YouTube with English captions:

As I’ve repeatedly noted: Putin does not care how much of his own blood and treasure he spills to achieve his goal of taking Ukraine. He knows he has far more of both than the Ukrainians. The issue is not the Ukrainians willingness to fight and to defend themselves and their country, the issue is that they can only do that successfully if the US and its allies and partners provide Ukraine with the funding, material, and equipment it needs. The provision of which is going to run out of authorization and/or funding in the US in two weeks and is being held up in the EU by Hungary. Putin’s strategy is to grind down the Ukrainians. To force them to spend their more limited amount of blood and treasure to repel the bodies he throws at them indiscriminately. His assumption is that the GOP House majority caucus’s dysfunction, as well as the fact that Senator McConnell is happy to sacrifice his current hostage – support for Ukraine – to score political points against the Biden administration and the Democratic Senate majority. McConnell may actually care about Ukraine, but he cares about retaking the majority in the Senate and the White House more.

Here are some thoughts on Ukrainians defense against Putin’s and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion from LTC Deny Prokopenkol; Commander of the 12th Special Forces Brigade – Azov – of the National Guard of Ukraine:

Nearly two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians are beginning to ask themselves: “How long will this war last?”. The uncertainty and the chance that the fighting will continue for years are weighing on civilians and sometimes even on the military.

The answer is simple: Russia will never let Ukraine go from its realm of geopolitical influence. The war will continue as long as we are able to resist. Any “truce” or “agreement” is just another time out to accumulate resources for a further offensive. Our ability to mobilize all the necessary resources at a critical moment and work on the verge of extraordinary capabilities should not gradually turn into initiative-free stability.

Unfortunately, many people in Ukraine and abroad still refuse to accept the ruthless reality as it is. Some try to convince themselves that everything is about to end on its own. Others, on the contrary, are petrified at the mere thought that peace in Ukraine may take almost a decade to reach.

In addition, Russian informational and psychological attacks aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian society are pouring fuel on the fire: they say that Ukraine will not be able to withstand a long marathon, the army and volunteers will get tired and break down.

Azov has been at war for ten years. For us, it all started long before February 24, 2022. Since then, we have learned to ignore fatigue and not give in to despair; we have realized that perhaps not only our youth, but our entire lives will be spent on the frontlines of the war for Ukraine’s independence; we have realized that we have no other path but the one we have consciously chosen.

The best cure for despair, panic, or apathy caused by reflections on the timing of this war is active involvement in the historical processes that are taking place here and now.

We do not know the exact day, month or year when we will win and be able to return to our families. But we are confident that no matter how long the war lasts, we have our trusted brothers-in-arms by our side, love for our country in our hearts, and weapons in our hands. And all this will not let us retreat: neither today, nor in a year or ten years.

Those who are not yet serving in the Ukrainian Defense Forces must make a deliberate choice: to pick up arms and join the ranks of the military, or to become a reliable backbone for the army, working to support the country’s defense potential.

This is a long war. It can last for years. It depends on us what we do daily to bring our victory closer.

Ukrainian air defense had a busy night:

Avdiivka:

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/3. Some other Russian and also Ukrainian sources lean towards a crash:

Ukrainian source – “regarding the dead cockerel SU-25 – I have no information that anyone (air defense) worked on it, but I do not rule it out

at approximately 11 am today the cockerels (both took off from Millerovo) were working in pairs on our positions in the East, as a result of which 1 cockerel simply crashed”

Synkivka:

The Russian attacks in the vicinity of Synkivka are primarily suicide operations for them, so a pretty standard day.

In the beginning of this video you can already see four newly destroyed Russian vehicles. For the next two BMPs it looks not better. You can see a projectile (probably Javelin) reaching altitude and then slamming into the leading vehicle from above, blowing off mounted infantry.

The fact that the other Russian BMP got destroyed almost simultaneously gives this choreography a nice touch.

#Ukraine #Kherson #Kupyansk

Somewhere in the Donbas:

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

33Comments

  2. 2.

    Motivated Seller

    Can you clarify what “right of boom” actually means?  Like where does the phrase come from, is it some kind of cultural reference?  And what is its meaning in common usage right now?

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Of course it’s not nothing to have lost over 300,000 men, but we know from available data that:
    1: the regime doesn’t care

    I really hope that, aside from vatniks, there isn’t a single person over the age of about 7 who doesn’t realize or accept this. I know armchair diagnosing is bad, but putin truly seems like a genuine sociopath. I don’t think he is biologically capable of caring about any human being except himself. I doubt he thinks for one second about all the russians who have died because of him, and wouldn’t take a moment to toss tens or hundreds of thousands more after them. And yet, people want to take his side. Frightening.

    Another example of Ukrainian grannies being the most bad-ass grannies: (FB video at the link)

    Olena Vladymyrets, 94, from Vinnytsia, and her daughter Nina made 4,000 trench candles for Ukrainian defenders.

    I’ve joked about settling the war by having Zelenskyy and putin duke it out so Zelenskyy can turn him into pulp, but I feel like a group of Ukrainian grannies could do the same.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    On the difficulty of an effective counter-disinformation campaign, just look at the way Nina Jankowicz was treated.

  5. 5.

    Subsole

    @Motivated Seller:

    Not an expert, but I believe it is the cybersecurity equivalent of saying that your castle is standing with its moat filled in, its gate open, and its walls completely unguarded.

  7. 7.

    Subsole

    @Alison Rose:

    Those Ukrainian grannies have probably seen things in the course of their days that would turn Putin’s shit white.

    Fun fact: most of those harrowing events were likely perpetrated by Russians.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: As I have been saying for a long time, this is not putin’s war, it is russia’s war. Putin is not carrying a rifle, he is not targeting artillery, he is not raping children or castrating Ukrainian soldiers. Were he to have a window incident, somebody else would step in and continue to prosecute this genocide.

  12. 12.

    sanjeevs

    @Subsole: Meta (FB) could do a great deal to crack down on troll farms if they wanted to.

    Their technology to counter their data being scraped is excellent even though this is a difficult problem for them.

    The difference is they are motivated to do the latter.

  13. 13.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: True. As much as I would, let’s say, not cry if putin were to bite it, I also don’t really want to know what other monster would slide into his place, and I doubt it would change many minds in the country from where they are now.

  16. 16.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman: What a peach:

    “Using their henchmen in Kyiv, the Americans, in an attempt to suppress Russia, decided to create an antipode of our country, cynically choosing Ukraine for this, trying to divide essentially a single people. The result of the policy of the West and the regime in Kyiv can only be the disintegration of Ukraine into several states.”

    Cool story, bro.

    (Also, gross, he and I have the same birthday.)

  20. 20.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman: That is a thing that constantly worries me — the knowledge that there are probably multiple people over there who are worse (for various definitions of the term) than putin.

    Even still, putin croaking will be a non-sad day. I recall a few times in Servant of the People when someone would be trying to get a crowd of people to be quiet, they would yell out something like “putin is dead!” or “putin has been deposed!” and everyone would immediately pay attention.

  21. 21.

    Subsole

     

    @Adam L Silverman:

    @Bill Arnold:

    Thank you both for the correction.

     

    So, what do we do now?

    I have to admit, I have a lot of trouble figuring out how to translate any of the despair I feel reading these threads into useful action.

    That’s not a knock on your contributions. I appreciate them. It is valuable to be informed. Where I am struggling is application. How do we use the intelligence provided to good effect?

    That question is open to all and sundry in the comments, as well. Lurkers too.

    I mean, I can vote. I can call Elon an asshole on the internet. I can write a letter to Biden asking him to read more Balloon Juice. But, really, what am I supposed to do about the fact that everyone in any position of authority seems utterly unconcerned by the American Falange and their backers in the Axis of Atavism? Because man, my resources seem pretty small compared to the problem at hand. Suggestions are encouraged.

     

    Now, let me be as clear as I know how:  I am not doomsaying (though I often feel doomed). I am not trying to start or restart forum beef – not mine, not yours, nor anyone else’s. I am too damned tired for stupid internet shit. Consequently, I am not trying to start any.

    I am asking for practical measures into which we can channel energy using what has been presented here. Because I refuse to believe we survived 4 years of That Asshole and his constellation of (so very, very) Lesser Assholes and the myriad Major Assholes directing them just to fold it up now.

  23. 23.

    Subsole

    @sanjeevs:

    Yeah. The fact all the megaphone owners are team Fash is…uh…not good.

    I recall they had very little trouble shutting down ISIS recruitment efforts on their platforms. But neonazis is, apparently, just too damn tough for the richest brains on the planet…

  26. 26.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I think you are right that at this point, the Ukrainians have humiliated Russian leadership enough that they would want to keep going. However, if Putin fell out of a window, it would destabilize the country. It would create a power vacuum that would get filled in a very ugly way with lots of purges. The mess will be demoralizing for Russians and that will be good for Ukraine. I also think Putin has been pretty effective at ruling and maintaining that rule. He’s made very sure there is no one competent enough to take his crown. Not sure the second stringers would be as good at keeping things together.

  27. 27.

    bookworm1398

    I disagree that disinformation is a major problem here. McConnell and other legislators holding up Ukraine aid are not misinformed. They know exactly what is happening, they just have different priorities.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @bookworm1398: I agree, Russian disinformation is more effect now than Soviet dis-information during the Cold War because there is a much larger proportion of the US population & especially political establishment that are willing to embrace Russian disinformation for reasons both ideological & cynical.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Subsole: My plan is to take a leave of absence during October 2024 and go be a footsoldier for the Democratic campaign organization in either Michigan or Wisconsin, whichever seems more critical to victory (I live in Illinois, which can be taken for granted). I can make calls, drive people to polls, and provide whatever logistical help is required, including fetching pizza for the folks running the operation.

    If you live in range of a swing state (Arizona? Georgia? Who knows, maybe even post-Dobbs Ohio?) then doing something to fight the good fight along such lines is far more likely to move the needle in the right direction than any of the hand-wringing currently in vogue among Democrats. It can at least give you the satisfaction of having busted your ass for the cause, and done what you could do, whatever the outcome.

    And that determination to act can give you peace of mind now. At least, it does for me.

  33. 33.

    HeiSokoly

    @Subsole: And join NAFO, where you will find many missions you can choose to accept, including organizing mass calling waves to our legislators, and shutting down the propaganda as and where it appears

    A recent raid on Truth Social was organized by another Fella with great success, demoralizing and confusing them in a very short time, and securing much useful info

Comments are closed.