Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When we show up, we win.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

In my day, never was longer.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 664: A Brief(er) Tuesday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 664: A Brief(er) Tuesday Night Update

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Screen shot of a mural of an eye shedding a tear/crying. The upper eyelid is painted in the blue of Ukraine's flag. The lower eyelid is painted in the yellow of Ukraine's flag. The mural was painted by the artist MyDogSighs.

(Image by My Dog Sighs)

I’m fried. Been a long couple of weeks. So just going to cover the basics tonight.

The Financial Times with the details:

US Senate negotiators have given up on passing a deal this year to provide billions of dollars in war funding for Ukraine, starting their holiday recess and pushing talks into January.

Negotiators from both parties in Congress have been wrangling for weeks over Republican demands to tighten US border security before considering a White House request for more funding for Kyiv.

But after talks floundered, Senate leaders on Tuesday confirmed that negotiations would have to proceed into January, after the holiday recess.

“The bottom line is that both Democrats and Republicans understand that there’s more work to do to pass legislation protecting America’s security and the security of the western world,” Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate, told reporters in Washington.

“Our goal is to get something done as soon as we get back” in January, Schumer added.

The decision to push more talks into next month means negotiations could collide with congressional deadlines on January 19 and February 2 to avoid shutdowns of various government agencies.

Republicans have grown increasingly sceptical of giving more aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago. In December, Senate Republicans blocked a $111bn spending package that included $60bn for Ukraine.

Republicans have said they will resist further calls for Ukraine funding unless it is tied to funding for increased US border security. Apprehensions at the US-Mexico border have escalated from 1.7mn in the 2021 fiscal year to about 2.5mn this year.

“We cannot do a national security supplemental bill absent dealing with a national security crisis at our southern border,” said John Thune, the Republican Senate whip.

And that, as they say, is that.

President Zelenskyy held his end of year press conference. There’s no transcript posted on the President of Ukraine website, most likely because it’s over 2 hours long!. Here’s the video with subtitles:

President Zelenskyy also gave an address from earlier today at the Diia Summit. Again, no transcript just the video below with English subtitles.

 

For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 19 Today, we present to you the FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air-defense system. Many of our partners have donated Stingers to the #UAarmy, including the Netherlands (@Defensie), Germany (@BMVg_Bundeswehr), United States (@DeptofDefense), Lithuania (@Lithuanian_MoD), Latvia (@AizsardzibasMin), Italy (@MinisteroDifesa), Denmark (@Forsvarsmin), and Greece (@Hellenic_MOD). We are grateful for their unwavering support since the first days of the full-scale invasion.

In the capable hands of our warriors, Stingers effectively shoot down russian helicopters, planes, and missiles.

Tomorrow is Day 20 of the Weapons of Victory calendar, so we are preparing something special.

Stay tuned! #StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

Blessed Saint Javelin!

The cost:

Dmytro, call sign Lys.

A year ago, he lost his leg while defending Bakhmut. But it did not break him, and now Lys wants to return to his unit and fight alongside his brothers-in-arms.

“Our own limitations often seem impossible to overcome. But strong people who dare to go through all the difficulties show that nothing can stop our will to move forward,” says Dmytro.

📸: 116th @TDF_UA Brigade

Avdiivka:

The left bank of the Dnipro via the Polish Ukrainian border:

Magyar says the drones he ordered on 13 Dec are now blocked on the Polish border despite claims that no border blocks are present. He now has to urgently search and buy drones from within Ukraine as Russian EW is very effective in Krynky.

Find more details in his post: https://t.me/robert_magyar/751

Here’s a full machine translation of Magyar’s post:

TOTAL DRONOPAD.

That’s my first such appeal « on the run», and hopefully the last one.
!!️I will urgently buy 15-20 mavik 3 pro from any available in Ukrain. Today. At the current price.

Bought for December 13 People’s money 50 drones of 66 thousand hryvnia is on the Polish border, on which there are no «no queues of trucks». And you will have to sew those drones.

The enemy pulled on the Crinces, apparently, all the REB-iron that was available. The technique is stupidly not able to withstand. All working brigades do not stand.

Suggestions for the presence of drones are urgently asked in the comments or on the box [email protected] (specify your contact phone number in messengers)

That is unscheduled costs. So please secure us with your donates for that purchase. According to the feeling of market value somewhere around UAH 1.75-1.9 million.
At the bank we have 750 thousand hryvnia of your help, but it is planned for the y-vo and distribution of additional RER-complexes between units of the Armed Forces, whose crews are trained in us these days. thank you

!!️The only details of Magyar’s collection:
t.me/robert_magyar/12

MADYAR🇺🇦

12/19/23

 

Oleshki forest, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

An interview about foreigners in the ranks of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, a veteran of the U.S. Army Special Operations Forces and Azov lieutenant Ilya “Gandalf” Samoilenko talk about the principles of training in the unit, misconceptions about Azov in the world, the specifics of reconnaissance work and the absence of a language barrier in the brigade.
Watch it on our YouTube channel now!

The video is available with English subtitles.

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

 

Reader Interactions

25Comments

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Zelenskyy’s comment re Zaluzhny is bit disquieting. I would think at this junction he needs to project Ukrainian unity & determination to fight on, whatever his private thoughts on Zaluzhny ,& not give cause to more chattering about infighting at the leadership level.

  4. 4.

    Yarrow

    Thanks, Adam.

    What, if anything, can the average person do to push Congress to fund the war effort in Ukraine? Calling my representatives seems so futile.

  5. 5.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    Fuck Russia and fuck the Russia-loving Republican party. The party of Reagan…lol NOT! The 21st century Republican party is willing to help Vlad rebuild the Russian empire, which is curious being that they used to hate communists and now they admire them because they are white and led by men who treat women like shit and hate gay people.

    Republicans hard at work doing Russia’s bidding because they really are Russians at heart.

  6. 6.

    Turgidson

    Any insight into whether Schiff’s idea of using frozen/seized Russian assets to fund more aid to Ukraine is feasible without Congressional GOP approval?  I’d love to have a strand of hope to cling to…

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: The issues is how to assuage all of the other holders of USD denominated assets (many of whom are either competitors to the US or neutral parties looking to multi-align) that seizure of Russian USD reserves will remain an extraordinary measure used only in the most extreme circumstances.

    Over the decades the US has had a tendency to expand the scope, circumstances & targets of financial & technological sanctions, on grounds from the unimpeachable to the flimsy. What might start as for extraordinary circumstances only can drift to become common place down the line.

    There are many reasons why most countries in the world, even the US’ competitors, are motivated to keep a substantial portion of their assets in USD, especially at times of uncertainty or duress – better returns, greater liquidity, stability of currency, etc. However, all of that can be overridden if the holders of assets do not believe their holdings are safe (which is the entire value proposition of hold USD denominated assets). We also need to be mindful of how a Trump (or DeSantis) Administration might do with the precedent. Trump has had no compunction about exercising such leverage against allies/partners/neutrals/competitors/rivals alike. The ROW will certainly will be extremely mindful.

    The only threats to USD dominance for the foreseeable future are actions by the USG.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    Maybe someday I’ll take the time to research why “Magyar” – the Hungarian word for the Hungarian people – is “Madyar” (Мадяр) in Ukrainian. But it strikes me every time I see a reference to the guy with the drones (the namepatch on his uniform says “Мадяр,” as it should.)

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: I am always interested in learning more about the language.

    A question I had: The different name endings for husband and wives (as in Zelenskyy and Zelenska) doesn’t seem to apply to all names. For example, I saw that Denys Shmyhal’s wife also has Shmyhal as her last name with no change to the ending. Is there a rubric for how that works, or is it maybe up to the individual to decide if they do it or not?

  12. 12.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: It always reminds me of when I was a kid and collected stamps.  Lots and lots of “Magyar Posta” stamps showed up in the zillion stamps for $2 collections.

    And then I remember the good things that UKRPoshta has been doing under very trying circumstances.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: This seems to me an issue of thresholds. There are—must be—thresholds of conduct with respect to International law that put nations beyond expectations of asset protection. Russia, Iran, North Korea, are easy cases. Other nations (or the firms of such nations, which is more to the point) can balance the likelihood of asset seizure against the benefits of participating in the flows of International finance and commerce. Given the high thresholds required to cross pariah-state threshold, it seems clear to me that the threat to USD as the default reserve currency is nonexistent, as much as its demise may be devoutly wished for in some capitals.

    As examples, Chinese assets in the West are perfectly safe, barring an actual shooting war over Taiwan. Brazil’s assets, or South Africa’s, are under no threat whatsoever, irrespective of the disposition of seized Russian assets. This is perfectly understood by the policymakers of those nations, as is the own-goal-level cost of seeking autarchy.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    @Another Scott: OMG yes! I didn’t collect stamps, but at my former job, where we sold materials for Montessori schools, we had little items called “language objects” to help kids learn starting sounds, and one was “stamp”. We would assemble kits of around 100 objects*, and I used to love seeing all the different random stamps from around the world, including a LOT with that same notation.

    (*It was actually one of my favorite things to do, because I’d get to bring my iPod into the conference room where all the buckets and bags were set up and listen to music while I worked. You’d do 25 kits at a time and it would take between 1.5 and 2 hours, so it was a nice break from the phones and such.)

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: There are rules, it’s not a free-for-all. I don’t think I can quickly specify what they are, though, you just know. Poroshenko, for instance, is the same for both.

  16. 16.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: Ah, that’s interesting, I would have guessed the female version would end in an ‘a’. I kind of want to take a course that’s not about learning to speak the language but learning about the mechanics and nuances of it. I find language a fascinating subject.

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: A striking thing about that debate is that it appears to largely ignore the extent to which new International law can be created, de facto, by the deliberate actions of a power attempting to move the boundaries within the system. China’s reinterpretation of, and agitprop in favor of, novel theories constraining its rivals and promoting its own national strategy goals are a perfect example of this.

    For example, let’s imagine a world in which the US does not “seize” frozen Russian, assets, but rather transfers control over those frozen assets to Ukraine, which then in turn seizes them as war reparations. The US could then argue the fig leaf proposition that under its own interpretation of International law, it has lawfully ceded control without engaging in any illegal seizure. And before such a fait accomplit, US courts would very likely decline to mandate redress. One can only imagine the decadal process of making sense of all this at The Hague. Whatever settlement arrived at there would be handed down years after the end of the war, by justices who know better than to attempt to make moot law.

    That’s just a scenario that I made up, to illustrate the point that the Biden administration has a great deal more freedom than law professors can compass within their ken.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … France24.com:

    London (AFP) – Despite slashing oil production for months on end and announcing new cuts in late November, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its ten allies have struggled to boost flagging prices.

    [image]

    Moreover, the OPEC+ group faces pressure on multiple fronts, as rising US crude production, a looming transition away from fossil fuels, and reports of discord among members have added to the challenges.

    Prices are sitting at their lowest level in nearly six months despite the cartel’s announcement in November to further cut output.

    They have jumped in recent days as cargo shippers and oil firms say they will avoid using the Red Sea and Suez Canal because of drone and missile attacks by Huthi rebels. But they still remain below $80 a barrel.

    Nevertheless, crude prices remain above the average of the past five years.

    In an effort to prop up prices, the OPEC+ alliance has implemented supply cuts of more than five million barrels per day (bpd) since the end of 2022.

    After nearly striking $100 in September, the alliance’s strategy has since fallen short of reversing a slide.

    While Riyadh blamed speculators for the drop, rather than weak demand, analysts say the cartel’s lack of unity has fuelled scepticism about their latest announced cuts.

    […]

    As a result of the supply cuts and amid various political crises in Libya and Venezuela, the OPEC+ share of the oil market has fallen to 51 percent — the lowest since its creation — the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report.

    Meanwhile, crude production in the United States, the world’s leading producer, has risen above 20 million bpd, while Brazilian and Guyanese output has also soared.

    “The shift in global oil supply from key producers in the Middle East to the United States and other Atlantic Basin countries… (is) profoundly impacting global oil trade,” the IEA said.

    […]

    [ womp, womp ]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: I was wondering!  He uses the g in his Telegram address, but yeah it’s a D on his uniform…  wasn’t sure if it meant the same thing (Hungarian person).

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    This seems to me an issue of thresholds. There are—must be—thresholds of conduct with respect to International law that put nations beyond expectations of asset protection. Russia, Iran, North Korea, are easy cases. Other nations (or the firms of such nations, which is more to the point) can balance the likelihood of asset seizure against the benefits of participating in the flows of International finance and commerce. Given the high thresholds required to cross pariah-state threshold, it seems clear to me that the threat to USD as the default reserve currency is nonexistent, as much as its demise may be devoutly wished for in some capitals.

    The targets of US financial sanctions started w/ terrorists, drug traffickers, human smugglers & other criminals. Then it expanded to pariah states (NK), then it expanded to Iran to coerce the country to consummate the JPCOA negotiations. Then the Trump Administration unilaterally withdrew from the JPCOA, even though Iran at the time was still compliant, & reimposed the sanctions in a fruitless effort to wring more concessions, or just out of bloodymindedness. Would Russia’s naked aggression justify seizing its USD/Euro reserves to fund the Ukrainian war effort and/or reconstruction? Yes, that case can certainly be made, & I think the case is strong. However, how to reassure the ROW that the precedent will stop there? You seem to think it is self-evident, that is not true any more. Not after the trigger happy sanctioning the US has engaged in for the past 2+ decades.

    As examples, Chinese assets in the West are perfectly safe, barring an actual shooting war over Taiwan. Brazil’s assets, or South Africa’s, are under no threat whatsoever, irrespective of the disposition of seized Russian assets. This is perfectly understood by the policymakers of those nations, as is the own-goal-level cost of seeking autarchy.

    If Dems hold power indefinitely, maybe that is well understood by the policymakers in the ROW. Should Trump win the WH in 2024, or some other R candidate, I don’t think that will be the case. Trump has demonstrated in 2016 – 2020 that there is no international norm he is not willing to break, no treaty he is not willing to withdraw from (or at least threaten), no leverage he will refrain from pulling, w/ anyone. A second iteration promises to be crazier, essentially a replay of the last year of the Trump presidency. Members of the Trump team had at various times suggested threatening to seize the PRC’s USD denominated assets, or renege on PRC claims on US Treasury bonds, as leverage over trade negotiations. Trump was quite brazen in extorting Japan & SK to sustain the alliance w/ the US. The Trump Administration did not hesitate to use extremely flimsy natsec grounds to impose tariffs on aluminum & steel produced by allies & competitors alike, an economic nationalist policy continued under Biden.

    & have you missed the R rhetoric (echoed by some Dems) that seeks to paint the PRC, Russia & Iran as a new “Axis of Evil”? In the current US political discourse, the PRC is already (in effect) deemed a pariah state by most members of Congress (of both parties) & all PRC nationals deemed suspect under an increasing number of state laws (that prevent them from purchasing properties or joining STEM labs in universities), & any country continuing to accept Chinese investment, use Chinese technology, conducting scientific/technology collaboration w/ PRC entities have come under increasing pressure from the US to decouple (by both Trump & Biden).

    Under the next R administration, the distinctions you are drawing & the international norms you are assuming will be obliterated.

    USD dominance is not some divinely ordained privilege bestowed onto the US. It has to be maintained & sustained. USD dominance has caused a great deal of distortions in the US domestic economy, that has had massive deleterious effects on wealth inequality & working class/middle class welfare, but it has also brought massive benefits that most Americans take for granted.

  24. 24.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Gin & Tonic: Because that’s close to how it sounds when pronounced correctly. The “gy” combination sounds more like the -dge in bridge with a bit of a -y on the end.
    There’s a Wikipedia article on the Hungarian language (Google is so often a waste of time these days); here’s a bit from that:

     

     

    The sound voiced palatal plosive /ɟ/, written ⟨gy⟩, sounds similar to ‘d’ in British English ‘duty’. It occurs in the name of the country, “Magyarország” (Hungary), pronounced /ˈmɒɟɒrorsaːɡ/. It is one of three palatal consonants, the others being ⟨ty⟩ and ⟨ny⟩. Historically a fourth palatalized consonant ʎ existed, still written ⟨ly⟩.

    I think the pronunciation of “duty” that refers to is something like “djuty” although there’s probably a better way to write that in the International Phonetic Alphabet.

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