Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Trump’s legal defense is going to be a dumpster fire inside a clown car on a derailing train.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Battle won, war still ongoing.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 673: Air Raid Alerts Are Up Over Most of Eastern and Central Ukraine

War for Ukraine Day 673: Air Raid Alerts Are Up Over Most of Eastern and Central Ukraine

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Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As Day 673 of Ukraine’s war of defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion ticked over in Ukraine to day 674, air raid alerts went up over most of the country. Here’s the map as of 5:25(ish) EST:

And here’s where it is as of 6:45 EST:

Screen shot of the air raid alert map of Ukraine as of 6:45 PM EST on 28 December 2023. It shows almost all of central Ukraine under air raid alert.

This follows this morning’s Russian bombardment:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Resilience, strength and results at this very moment determine the outcome of this winter of full-scale war – address by the President of Ukraine

28 December 2023 – 20:00

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report for today.

A conference call in the morning referring to the internal situation and elimination of consequences of Russian strikes. In particular, Kherson and the region, Zaporizhzhia region and other regions. I am thankful to every rescuer, every doctor, every police officer.

Reports by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine: there are good results in protecting against collaborators and spotters, and in combating crime.

The functioning of our export corridor in the Black Sea: over 12 million tons of cargo have already been handled. The results in December are particularly remarkable, and this is evident at the level of our entire economy.

Of course, there were reports from the frontline today – Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, the left bank of Kherson. Our resilience, strength and results at this very moment determine the outcome of this winter of full-scale war and our expectations for the next year.

In the afternoon, there were also meetings. In particular, with the Minister of Defense. On the development of our Defense Forces. Specific things that need to be done. And we will do them. Absolutely. To preserve our strength and to have the necessary arguments in a conversation with our partners. Increasing Ukraine’s own capabilities and maintaining the consolidation of the world is our task. The task of the entire state and everyone who works for it.

Today was also the year-end meeting on negotiations on security commitments for Ukraine. The team of the Office, the government… There is a core declaration of the Group of Seven – the Vilnius Declaration. 30 states have already endorsed it. Bilateral work on commitments has begun, and we will continue next year.

I have just spoken with His Holiness Pope Francis to express gratitude for his Christmas greetings to Ukraine and Ukrainians, for his wishes of peace – just peace for all of us. We discussed our joint work on the Peace Formula – more than 80 states are already involved at the level of their representatives. There will be more. I am grateful to the Vatican for supporting our work.

I would also like to thank the United States for a new defense package – the 34th this year and the 54th since we have started defending ourselves against this Russian aggression. This package includes missiles for air defense systems and HIMARS, artillery of 155 and 105 caliber, and additional armored vehicles. Everything we need. Everything that helps tangibly.

I am thankful to President Biden, Congress – both parties – and all those who support us in a very specific task: Russian terror must be defeated. Terror must always fail. And all of us together in the free world will ensure that – we will do everything to maintain the proper level of cooperation next year for the sake of our common strength, the strength of everyone who stands against terror.

I thank everyone who is now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions for the sake of Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps and works for our common interests!

Glory to Ukraine!

Norwegian firefighters and emergency first responders:

Germany:

The G7:

The USA are forwarding a plan to the G7 to confiscate Russian assets in the West. Around 300 billion USD are currently frozen in Western banks.

I have been saying this in the past that this is an untapped source of funds. There is also legal basis to confiscate that money as you can retrieve from by repost down below. The UNGA voted overwhelmingly in favor that Russia will have to pay reparations for the damage of the unprovoked war in Ukraine which Russia started.

Source: https://ft.com/content/d206baa8-3ec9-42f0-b103-2c098d0486d9

#Ukraine #UNGA #G7

Here are the details from The Financial Times:

The US has proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, as the allies rush to agree a plan in time for the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While no decisions have been taken and the issue remains hotly debated inside European capitals, the acceleration of work on confiscating Moscow’s assets for Ukraine highlights its rising importance for the west.

The topic was discussed this month by both G7 finance ministers and their deputies, according to people briefed on the calls, which touched on how to develop such a policy and assess the risks involved.

The US, backed by the UK, Japan and Canada, has proposed moving forward with the preparatory work so the options would be ready for a potential meeting of G7 leaders around February 24, the date of Vladimir Putin’s 2022 offensive on Kyiv.

The three working groups proposed by Washington would examine the legal issues around confiscation; the method of applying such a policy and mitigating risks; and options for how to best channel the support to Ukraine.

Germany, France, Italy and the EU have expressed some reservations, and the need to carefully assess the legality of confiscating Moscow’s assets before decisions are taken. Several European ministers also stressed the need to maintain high levels of secrecy over the work, according to accounts of the meeting.

Various options are being explored in western capitals, ranging from directly confiscating and spending the Russian central bank assets, to tapping the proceeds from the frozen assets or using them as collateral for loans.

The EU has so far stopped short of seizing the Russian assets themselves, instead exploring ways to skim off profits generated for financial institutions such as Euroclear, where €191bn in sovereign assets are held.

Washington has so far not publicly backed seizing Russian assets. But the US privately circulated a discussion paper this year within the G7 suggesting seizures of Moscow’s frozen assets would be lawful as “a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression”.

But Europe, where the majority of the assets are held, is much more wary, fearing the possible implications for financial stability as well as retaliatory action from Russia.

Italy, which takes over the G7 presidency in 2024, is among those worried about potential retaliation on its companies active in Russia, something that Moscow has already threatened to do. Russia has also warned it would cease diplomatic relations with the US in response to any asset confiscation.

The EU, UK and France also stressed that the money would not be readily available, and insufficient to cover Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, and that seizing the assets should not be at the expense of providing financial support to Kyiv in 2024.

Some ministers are concerned that the debate over seizures will imply there is an alternative to orthodox funding packages for Ukraine, which have stalled through opposition in the US Congress and because of Hungary’s refusal to back an EU deal.

More at the link!

This isn’t actually a plan. It is a proposal to create three working groups to explore if this is legal, let alone feasible, acceptable, and suitable (FAS), which is the assessment framework we use for strategy and policy. It is also intended to make the US and its EU allies look like they’re doing something because their internal political divisions are making it impossible to do the normal, straightforward, just pass the legislation to fund and supply Ukraine. Do not expect much to come of this. And from the Ukrainian perspective they cannot plan on this actually happening. Especially because it is unlikely it will.

For those still unclear on what Russia’s objectives are in their genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, Dmitri Medvedev tweets the quiet part out loud:

Question by RIA Novosti:
The collective West, having wasted almost all of its weapons, starts to push the Kiev regime to engage in talks in 2024. Is that possible?

Answer:
What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.

1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine.
2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved.
3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.

And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces.

And, by the way, I’d like to inform you that since January 1, 2023, the Armed Forces of Russian Federation have accepted half a million people as servicemen under contract.

I will once again note for you all that Russia is at war not with Ukraine, but with NATO regardless of what the US or its NATO allies might like to think.

Which is why giving anonymous quotes like this on background IS NOT HELPING! (emphasis mine)

With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country. But along with the Ukrainians themselves, U.S. and European officials are now discussing the redeployment of Kyiv’s forces away from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive into a stronger defensive position against Russian forces in the east, according to the administration official and the European diplomat, and confirmed by a senior administration official. This effort has also involved bolstering air defense systems and building fortifications, razor wire obstructions and anti-tank obstacles and ditches along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, these officials say. In addition, the Biden administration is focused on rapidly resurrecting Ukraine’s own defense industry to supply the desperately needed weaponry the U.S. Congress is balking at replacing.

The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. “That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.

For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow.

“Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Over the past year — with U.S. military support flagging fast on Capitol Hill and Zelenskyy’s once-vaunted counteroffensive failing since it was launched in June — Biden has shifted from promising the U.S. would back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” to saying the U.S. will provide support “as long as we can” and contending that Ukraine has won “an enormous victory already. Putin has failed.”

Some analysts believe that is code for: Get ready to declare a partial victory and find a way to at least a truce or ceasefire with Moscow, one that would leave Ukraine partially divided.

“Biden’s victory comment has the virtue of being true,” said George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA who is now head of strategy for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. But “time has become a stark disadvantage when it comes to Ukraine’s manpower and industrial capacity, and that’s true even if the West continues its support. The longer this goes on the more we’re going to have to concede up front just to get the Russians to the negotiating table.”

A shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Putin into an acceptable compromise. “It’s very likely that going to a defensive posture would allow the Ukrainians to conserve resources while making future Russian progress look unlikely,” said Anthony Pfaff, an intelligence expert at the U.S. Army War College who co-authored a study that anticipated Putin’s Ukraine invasion years before it happened.

The European diplomat based in Washington said that the European Union is also raising the threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO to “put the Ukrainians in the best situation possible to negotiate” with Moscow.

The senior Biden administration official told POLITICO Magazine that all these factors — the resistance in Congress and Ukraine’s internal politics — were playing into the new discussions with Kyiv about redeploying toward a defensive posture. “The other wild card is how much the weather is going to be a factor. As they decide how they’re going to posture themselves in the next two to three months, it’s going to become physically harder to operate and go on the offensive.”

One problem, of course, is that Putin understands these stakes all too well — especially given the surging poll numbers for Trump, who has suggested both that he’d swiftly cut a deal with Russia over Ukraine and order the U.S. to depart from, or at least downgrade, NATO. Militarily, the biggest concern may be that Putin could go on the offensive in the spring with major air support that he’s avoided until now but could deploy as Ukraine runs low on defensive missiles. Politically, the worry is that Putin won’t go near a negotiation until he sees who the next U.S. president is.

In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, said the Russians had an “activity plan until 2025,” and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if arms supplies from Western countries were to end.

Much more at the link!

The Russians read our news reporting, commentary, think tank assessments, etc. Stuff like this only confirms to them that Putin’s strategy of seeking time is working and will, eventually, allow him to achieve victory. If we’re not going to give Ukraine what they need when they need because we’re scared of Putin, which is the reality of the past 673 days, then the least US officials can do is shut the fuck up so as not to reinforce Putin’s belief that he’s winning.

Avdiivka and the Avdiivka front (machine translations after the tweets):

the walls of Avdiyivka say: “death to the enemies!”

most of all, I want to see fewer katsaps 🙏🏼 and for the defenders of Avdos to be alive 🙏🏼

BIG and the last collection this year for 500 FPV and 500 activation boards for the Avdiiv direction

target: 9.2 🍋

🍯 https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5PHeGYF8XV

Avdiivka is 🇺🇦

And:

heavy battles in the direction of Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Stepovoye, AKHZ 😔

they climb out of all cracks, use heavy bombs

OURS need anti-aircraft guns, drones and a reliable rear 🙏🏼 so more drones = less katsaps

(yy – [email protected])

large collection for SSO, 53, 116, 47 and 110 brigades 🙏🏼

Synkivka, Kupyansk front, Kharkiv Oblast:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s this year’s Christmas post from Patron’s official Instagram:

A screen shot of a post on Patron the Sapper dog's official Instagram from 24 DEC 2023. Patron is a brown and white short haired Jack Russel terrier. He is sitting in the foreground with his head slightly cocked and is wearing his work harness. Behind him is a Christmas tree with ornaments. To his left is a package wrapped in red and white checked paper with a bow.

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Tonight is the same Holy Night, the silent night.
And tonight we will try to gather with our families to close our eyes together and whisper something (they say it’s a prayer).

There will be delicious food on the table, and we will have a traditional meal: “Patron, ew, stay away”. Tom will be hiding somewhere, because he is even more introverted on holidays.

And I’ll be looking at them from under the table, maybe waiting for someone to miss with a sausage… but in reality I’ll be admiring everyone.

How wonderful it is to have a family. I often visit shelters, and the only thing dogs and cats dream of is to have a place under someone’s table. And no matter if a sausage falls, someone will pick it up, put their hand down to you, and you will lick it. And someone will give you a smile, or maybe a hug. This is the greatest happiness in the world, believe me. ❤️

If you have a family but don’t have much contact with them, today is the day to do it. At least make a phone call, send a message, put a heart on their Viber card.
If you don’t have a family, then… No, wait, that’s not true. The whole civilized world is your family. And I am also your family. So I put my heart right here. ❤️

Today is a time of miracles. And now more than ever I want to ask you to make a miracle in the form of donations. A little bit for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a little bit for sick children, a little bit for animals, you can also donate to my foundation, as we are currently helping an injured sapper. And you are so good that you donated money to my Foundation, so that when a terrible event happened, the fairies of the Foundation had a large amount of money to send for treatment.

And at such moments I know that even if I was a naughty boy, a miracle will happen to me. Because I have you, and you have me. Let’s be miracles for each other❤️

A premature Christmas lick for everyone 👅

The kind that you might not be allowed to touch because it’s “for the holidays,” but you can’t help yourself☺️

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

37Comments

  1. 1.

    way2blue

    A bit off topic, but I wanted to express my deep admiration for the Ukrainian fighters who have mastered the hodge-podge of surplus, obsolete, and otherwise gear that the West clears out of warehouses and sends to them.  I seem to remember a fair number of talking heads say they couldn’t possibly learn to operate this gear in time to make a different.  Curious if any have adjusted their prognosis lately.

  2. 2.

    MikefromArlington

    Did the Ukrain government seize everyone’s bank accnt in the Ukrain to find the war?

    Just trying to verify something someone said

  3. 3.

    trollhattan

    re. the Synkivka region video of the ill-fated armor group, if I’m in charge of the mine-roller tank I’m sending a note to Management:
    Comrade,
    Know the pole holding the mine-clearing thingie in front of our tanks? I’d like mine to be 2X that length.
    Spasibo!

  4. 4.

    dirt_first

    Long-time lurker.  Adam, I’ve only posted once or twice, but I read these posts daily and I can’t thank you enough for your seemingly endless efforts.  Also appreciate the informed comment of much of the b-joosers on these and other issues.

    Thank you.  Though I’d rather russia just get the f8ck out of Ukraine.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive

    Man, fuck this. The only reason it “mostly failed” is because the rest of the West didn’t give them what they needed. Ukraine has proven over and over that when they have the equipment and weapons and support they need, they can and will get shit done. It’s not their fault the West is a bunch of scared little rabbits when it comes to putin. (Also, calling it “Zelenskyy’s failed counteroffensive” like he’s the only one out there on the frontlines is weird.)

    Bah. Here’s a Ukrainian cat trying to (for fun) make a meal of a soldier’s hand. Cats over there are more ready to fight than we are.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    Lyrebird

    @way2blue: I’m not the most realistic person, so I am surprised again and again – how is it that the people dissing Shinseki, dissing the Ukrainians, etc still get booked on the tee vee?  Or Chris Cilizza, who should have to pound out brass plaques saying “She (HRC) was right… about everything!” for a decade?

    Especially when we have people like Adam and other front pagers working for free here.  Not that anyone’s predictions about world events could ever be 100%, ETA: but listening to – and paying – folks who were obviously so off, seems like it’s just wrong.

    For tonight, I am going to have to settle for getting amused that in addition to 39 states having an Arlington, apparently there’s one in a former SSR.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    @way2blue:

    they couldn’t possibly learn to operate this gear in time to make a different

    Anyone who said or says this has obviously never spent any time in Ukraine. Making old shit work is the national sport.

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    @MikefromArlington:
    As G&T says, no.
    Quick google searches turned up pieces on seizure of Russian (and Belarusian) assets in Ukraine, and a couple of shifts in the details of how normal bank account seizures for things like debt collection are handled under martial law. Zero about all accounts, though. (Not even propaganda sites.)
    If you’re asking in good faith, maybe start with a google translate of this:
    Law on Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding Certain Features of the Organization of Enforcement of Court Decisions and Decisions of Other Bodies During Martial Law (Reg. No. 8064) (Google Translated) (April 11, 2023)

  18. 18.

    topclimber

    Gotta love Politico: a barrage of blather with one relevant sentence:

    “Politically, the worry is that Putin won’t go near a negotiation until he sees who the next U.S. president is.”

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Realists such as Emma Ashford (not charlatans such as John Mearsheimer) have argued from day one that the US/West needed to work toward & communicate more realistic endgame for the War in Ukraine – that an unsatisfying negotiated settlement involving painful compromises by Ukraine is far more likely than total victory on the battlefield by Ukraine. In terms of the broad historical perspective, Ashford is not wrong.

    However, if Ukraine’s objective for “total victory” is recovery of pre-2014 internationally recognized sovereign territory (or even minus Crimea, for argument’s sake), then there are plenty of examples where such victory is possible through success on both the battlefield & the negotiating table: France ultimately left Algeria, France & the US both left Vietnam, the USSR left Afghanistan, Israel utterly defeated multiple Arab invasions between ’48 & ’73, Tanzania utterly defeated the Ugandan invasion supported by Libya in ’79 (overthrew Idi Amin in the process), Chad utterly defeated Libya in the Toyota War in ’87. Lasting peace could only be secured at the negotiating table, but military victory can set the decisive conditions for lasting peaceful settlement.

    It is one thing for analysts to be doing their jobs & providing analyses. They should not be censored. It is quite another for USG officials to be pushing narratives to the press. Currently, the battlefield appears to be at stalemate, pushing the narrative toward negotiated settlement dramatically weakens Ukraine’s hand in any kind of theoretical negotiation, encourages Putin to drag things out while Western support erodes further, & encourages Putin to try again in a few years after he has reconstituted the Russian military. If the Biden Administration truly wants Ukraine to have the strongest hand at the negotiating table, then it & other NATO countries should be doing everything they can to help Ukraine address Russian air attacks, mines & obstacles, the ubiquitous FPV drones, the shortage of artillery rounds, etc., ASAP! Strength at the negotiating table can only come from success on the battlefield. If Ukraine manages to push the Russian invaders back to the pre-Feb. 2022 LACs, which would be a stunning defeat for Putin, & gets stalled at the Isthmus of Perekop, then it might be an occasion to call for a negotiated end & see how much of the remaining occupied territories Ukraine could recover at the negotiating table.

    As it is, all this talk of theoretical negotiations, much like all of the talk of seizing Russia’s sovereign reserves, appears to be masking & diverting attention away from the West’s inability/unwillingness to meet Ukraine’s needs to maximize the probability of battlefield success.

    BTW, much of the Global South countries voting for (or abstaining on) Russia to make reparations to Ukraine does not mean they are equally supportive of the G7 seizing Russia’s sovereign reserves & give them to Ukraine as compensation. The two cannot & should not be conflated. However, if the West can manage to secure similar kind of vote pattern on a resolution to seize Russia’s sovereign reserves & give it to Ukraine, then it would address a lot of the 2nd/3rd order potential risks to the global financial order from such action. However, I doubt most of the world can be convinced to vote in such a way.

  21. 21.

    gene108

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    BTW, much of the Global South countries voting for (or abstaining on) Russia to make reparations to Ukraine does not mean they are equally supportive of the G7 seizing Russia’s sovereign reserves & give them to Ukraine as compensation.

    Former colonies want a counterweight to the West, and Russia has filled or tried to fill that role for decades.

    China may get Africa’s support but it has too many claims on other countries territory or maritime rights to get support throughout Asia.

  22. 22.

    hrprogressive

    Is the West really about to Neville Chamberlain their way into allowing Putin to do what he wants?

    Because that’s what it sounds like.

    And for everyone talking about how we’re re-running the last 100 years, why does it increasingly feel like we’re going to basically re-do the entirety of the 1900’s except with different names in those roles, and with Climate Collapse in the 2050’s (plus or minus) replacing the Post WWII period of economic growth and prosperity?

  23. 23.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: an unsatisfying negotiated settlement involving painful compromises by Ukraine is far more likely than total victory on the battlefield by Ukraine.

    If by “total victory by Ukraine” you mean the Ukranian army rolling into Moscow (or even Vladivostok), then sure.  That’s not happening.

    But kicking the Russians totally out of Ukraine (including Crimea)? Definitely feasible.  And, since it is feasible, the Ukrainians aren’t going to negotiate for anything less.  The only point to negotiate is the size of Russian reparations.

  26. 26.

    Another Scott

    @Alison Rose: Kinda related – something I hadn’t seen before.

    ISW updates:

    The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6, 2023, reportedly postponed a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River that was likely intended to support Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. The Associated Press published an interview with Ukrainian Special Operations Forces personnel on December 26 wherein Ukrainian personnel stated that they were prepared to conduct a crossing of the Dnipro River to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast in late May 2023 but that the destruction of the KHPP dam and subsequent flooding postponed these plans.[11] The Ukrainian personnel reportedly conducted limited crossing attempts in July, August, and September 2023, but Ukrainian forces did not launch a larger crossing aimed at establishing a bridgehead on the east bank until mid-October 2023.[12]

    Ukrainian operations in the east bank of Kherson Oblast in October 2023 drew Russian forces from other sectors of the front and would have likely had a similar or even more pronounced effect in June 2023 at the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[13] Russian forces also transferred elements of the 7th Airborne (VDV) Division from Kherson Oblast following the destruction of the KHPP dam and proceeded to rely on them as critical elements of the Russian defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[14] It is unlikely that the Russian command would have transferred these elements away from Kherson in the event of a Ukrainian crossing in June 2023. Significant Ukrainian ground operations in the left bank of Kherson Oblast coordinated with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations throughout southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut would have placed greater pressure on Russian forces and would likely have limited the Russian military’s ability to balance manpower and materiel requirements for defensive operations in four directions. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam thus likely played a role in the outcome of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    The destruction of the dam seems to have been memory-holed by at least a few critics of the pace of the counter-offensive.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca:

    @Jay:

    Lasting end to war can only come through some kind of negotiated treaty, if not w/ Putin then w/ his successor, if not w/ the Russian Federation then w/ the successor state(s) whatever the form.

    If Ukraine can indeed retake Crimea through the force of arms, either via conventional battle or through insurgency, then there is no reason why anyone should prevent Ukraine from so doing. However, that appears to be a moot point right now because the coming support from the West does not appear to be nearly enough to push to pre-Feb. 2022 LACs.

    & if the US & large parts of the West is unwilling & unable to help enable Ukraine to recover territories lost since Feb. 2022, let alone that lost since 2014, via conventional warfare, then perhaps there should be greater honesty about that, so that Ukraine can shift to a different strategy, such as intensified insurgency in the occupied territories.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    There will be no lasting end to the War in Ukraine, just ask Chechnia.

    If you read the WSJ article, on the killing of Prigozhin, Puutie poots probable successor has an even worse hard on for  Ukraine as a nation state and the Ukrainian people.

    https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-patrushev-plan-prigozhin-assassination-428d5ed8

    The only “lasting peace” for Ukraine is to kick every orc out of Ukrainian territory, or bury them, and in the aftermath, join NATO, the EU and maintain a military posture that threatens the hell out of ruZZia. Maybe nukes.

    If the West doesn’t gear up and support Ukraine, we will be fighting ruZZia and the orc’s soon enough, or will just have to roll over and accept ruZZian MIR.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @gene108: How much support the PRC received from the countries or E/SE/S Asia depends on the issue. Japan is pretty opposed on most geopolitical matters, economic ones somewhat less so. South Korea generally tries to keep its head down. The Philippines is opposed at the geopolitical level, due to ongoing friction in maritime zones that the PRC (& the ROC) has nebulous unsupportable claims, well w/in the Philippines’s EEZ, but over which the Philippines is also asserting unsupportable territorial claims. However, we have seen the Philippines pivot sharply in the past, on multiple occasions. Vietnam was coordinating w/ the Philippines vis-a-vis the PRC in the Spratleys in the early to mid-10s, but since the Trump years has reverted to the traditional careful balancing game among great powers & practicing omnidirectional multi-alignment. Mongolia plays a similar game. As to Singapore, my impression is that as Sino-US geopolitical rivalry has intensified, Singapore has fought harder to avoid being drawn into either camp, actually backing away from the pro-US lean of the mid-10s. As goes Singapore, so go Brunei, Malaysia & Indonesia. Cambodia & Laos are essentially PRC client states. Myanmar & Pakistan are wholly reliant upon PRC support. Thailand, despite being a US treaty ally, has been leaning further toward the PRC for years, as domestic politics is dominated by the military. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Nepal have to balance their relations w/ the PRC & India, but all want the PRC deeply engaged to counterbalance potential Indian hegemony (much like E/SE Asian countries want the US deeply engaged to counterbalance potential PRC hegemony). The Central Asian Republics are all aligned w/ the PRC on most geopolitical matters, & all want the PRC deeply engaged to counterbalance Russian hegemony.

    As for territorial disputes, the remaining ones on land are w/ India & Bhutan. There are active negotiations to resolve the one w/ Bhutan, much to India’s displeasure (as India has traditionally dominated Bhutanese foreign policy & has had control over its national defense). The best that can be said about the Sino-Indian territorial dispute across the Himalayas is that there have not been major Iron Age scuffles in 2023 AFAIK.

    There are maritime territorial disputes w/ South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia & Indonesia. The ones w/ South Korea, Brunei, Malaysia & Indonesia are small & have not been aggressively asserted. The one w/ Vietnam over the Spratleys & the Paracels are being actively asserted by both sides, but the Vietnamese Communist Party government, unlike Marcos, Jr., has been deliberately keeping the rhetoric & domestic passions cool (it has demonstrated the ability & willingness to turn up the temperature in the past).

    Then there is Taiwan, an issue that just about every country in the region outside of Japan studiously avoids trying to piss off the PRC on.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Even if all that come to pass, Ukraine still needs a negotiated settlement w/ Russia or successor state(s) to formalize the peace. I am pretty NATO countries will insist on that, even if Ukraine is allowed into NATO 1st. Unless, one thinks NATO can dictate terms to Russia or its successor state(s) in the peace settlement, there will have to be some give & take at the negotiating tables.

    & all of this is moot for the time being because Ukraine needs a lot more war materials to be able to drive out the Russian invaders by conventional means, & there is little sign that adequate aid will be forthcoming any time soon.

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Sure. Vietnamese & Koreans tend to think that China, through its successive iterations, have tried to subjugate them for millennia. That does not stop them from reaching accommodations w/ China through its various iterations, while rigorously defending their national sovereignty & national interest.

    I get that this is an intellectual exercise no Ukrainian is likely to be interested in engaging in right now, while Ukraine is still fighting for its national survival. Totally reasonable & understandable. As I said, it’s a moot exercise for now, anyway. However, if you think devolution of the Russian Federation alone will bring peace to Ukraine, I think that is mistaken. Russia’s successor states are quite likely to be fight each other over border disputes & control over vital resources, fighting that could spill into Ukraine. Russia’s successor states could also come in conflict w/ Ukraine. Then there is the inevitable temptation by Ukrainian nationalists to intervene in the conflicts among Russia’s successor states, & or even to “recover” territories that had historically been part of Ukraine once up on a time, such as the lower Volga regions.

    See the fall of the Russian Empire, the dissolution of the USSR, the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, the Qing Empire, or the dissolution of Yugoslavia. This is not an argument to keep Russia whole at all cost, BTW.

    If anyone asserts that NATO will keep a lid on all that, what will be the animating force that keeps NATO whole & relevant, if the common threat posed by Russia disappears? The EU could keep a lid on all that, but only if the successor states in European Russia are brought into the fold, as well.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I am sure Adam will cover it in tomorrow’s update, but Ukrainian MOD is reporting that it shot down 114 of 158 missiles/drones launched by Russia, via Rob Lee:

    The Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down 114 out of 158 missiles and drones launched overnight, including 87 cruise missiles and 27 Shahed drones. https://t.me/kpszsu/9077

    36 Shahed drones, at least 90 Kh-101 / Kh-555/ Kh-55 missiles from 18 Tu-95MS bombers, 8 Kh-22 / Kh-32 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers, at least 14 S-300 / S-400 / Iskander-M missiles, 5 Kinzhal missiles from 5 MiG-31K, and 4 Kh-31P and 1 Kh-59 missiles launched from Su-35S. 2/

    This is a much higher volume than I recall Russian ever launching at Ukraine, possibly since the 1st days of the current invasion. It is quite notable that the vast majority of the munitions were more expensive cruise missiles, rather than cheap Shahed drones. It appears that Russia has been building up a reserve of missiles, & is expending them now in large numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian AD, & damage infrastructure to make the winter miserable for Ukrainians. Not many of the more advanced ballistic missiles, such as the Iskanders & Kinzhals, however.

    When Russia was launching 2 or 3 dozen missiles/drones day, Ukrainian AD proved more than up to the task of shooting them down. Launching them in numbers > 100 seems to be overwhelming Ukrainian AD. More than the Patriot batteries from Japan, perhaps it is the missiles that need to be rushed to Ukraine.

    We will have to see how long Russia can keep this up, but we may have underestimated the Russian production of cruise missiles.

  37. 37.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    They’ve clearly been building up a reserve of cruise missiles for attacks, and may have dipped into other reserves for this as well. What were the estimates of production rates?
    The google news auto-generated category for this attack has this straightforward and truthful headline from the Wall Street Journal. Interesting to see. They don’t say attacks on civilians are (black-letter-law-of-armed-conflict) war crimes but it seems implied.
    Russia Launches One of Its Largest Attacks Yet on Ukrainian Civilians – A barrage of drones and cruise missiles is unleashed on Ukrainian cities as Moscow seeks to erode morale (Ian Lovett, Updated Dec. 29, 2023)

    (Here’s the piece at MSN)

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