I just want to clarify something really quick. One of the reasons I link to and post excerpts from some of the analyses that are published in places like Foreign Affairs or from CSIS or other think tanks, which I did last night with Hal Brands piece at Foreign Affairs, is not because I agree with what is being linked to. Either in whole or in part. The reason is so that you can read what the people in the five sided monstrosity, Foggy Bottom, Langley, on the National Security Staff, on Capitol Hill, the students at the Senior Leader Colleges, as well as folks at other think tanks are reading. The authors of these pieces are often invited in to meet with people on that list above. Which is why you have this continually, repeatedly, galactically wrong RAND staffer visiting the White House twenty-one times since July 2021!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Despite various challenges, Ukraine has managed to keep our struggle for independence in the focus of international attention – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
27 January 2024 – 19:40
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
This day, this week is coming to an end. It’s time to summarize the first outcomes of January – for Ukraine and our relationships with partners.
Despite various challenges and many difficulties, Ukraine has had success in keeping our Ukrainian struggle for independence in the focus of international attention. We have added even more resilience to our state – a key argument in international communication. It’s about what you are capable of, what you can endure, and what you can overcome. The world pays attention to the resilient and bold.
First, this month we signed an ambitious security agreement with the United Kingdom. It now serves as a baseline reference point for working with other partners. Negotiations for new security agreements concerning bilateral documents implementing the G7 security declaration are ongoing – and not only with European states. I am confident that soon there will be new results regarding the provision of security commitments to Ukraine. I’m grateful to all our partners who are assisting.
Second, practically in this month, our teams from Ukraine and Poland have reset relations. We have a good understanding of each other, clear benchmarks that are important for our societies and security interests. By the way, Poland has joined the G7 security declaration, with a total of 32 countries now working with us in this direction.
Third, there is a positive result in relations with the European Union. Substantial preparations for the start of negotiations have begun – the process of screening of Ukrainian legislation. It is the official assessment of Ukrainian legal acts for compliance with EU law. There is already an understanding of the schedule of meetings and all the necessary next steps. It is important for the Ukrainian government team to be sufficiently mobilized for this work: Ukraine is interested in achieving as much results as possible in relations with Europe this year.
Fourth, I am grateful to Switzerland for very good, fruitful negotiations during the visit, as well as for the effective organization of the advisors’ meeting regarding the Peace Formula. An agreement has been reached on organizing the first Peace Summit at the leaders’ level in Switzerland. Very active contacts regarding this continue. It’s a truly powerful narrative – we are working on it.
Fifth, defense packages for Ukraine. We have seen decent trends over the month. Of course, we need more to gain control in the sky and greater capabilities on the ground, especially in artillery. But no matter how difficult it is for us, we have deliveries of artillery, missiles, and ammunition for air defense. I thank every country supporting our soldiers, protecting Ukrainian lives. Hundreds of Russian missiles and drones have been shot down this month. And we continue to work with our partners. We await the appropriate decision from the United States – it’s crucial for us.
I thank every country that announced new support packages at the recent Ramstein meeting, including nine support packages and, in particular, some critical items for our defense. We are already preparing for more agreements with partners in February.
I would like separately emphasize the results of talks with partners regarding Russian assets: this month, we have come closer to the decision we need, one that will be fair. All Russian assets – those of the state-terrorist and associated individuals – frozen in various jurisdictions, should work to protect against Russian aggression. They must be confiscated. We are doing everything to ensure that this decision is well prepared in the near future. Thank you to everyone who is helping us advance this mechanism of justice.
And of course, sanctions. A new European Union sanctions package is needed, and we are preparing it. We are also preparing new steps to limit Russia’s ability to bypass sanctions.
Every manifestation of pressure on Russia is a step toward peace. Every act of assistance to Ukraine is protection of lives. I am grateful to everyone standing with Ukraine! Thank you to all who fight and work for our state, our independence, and our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
The price:
Sometimes, it's hard to say goodbye.
Our defenders fight daily against the russian aggressor to ensure their loved ones have a future in a free Ukraine.📹: https://t.co/HXzoT3NH3u / Instagram pic.twitter.com/ZDASFT08i2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 27, 2024
The stakes:
Many Western analysts and politicians make a serious mistake in thinking that Russia already suffered a defeat in Ukraine. The reality is that Ukraine has serious problems in mobilization, economics, and demographics. The collapse of statehood and the cessation of the Ukrainian…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 27, 2024
Many Western analysts and politicians make a serious mistake in thinking that Russia already suffered a defeat in Ukraine. The reality is that Ukraine has serious problems in mobilization, economics, and demographics. The collapse of statehood and the cessation of the Ukrainian nation aren’t merely theoretical concepts but potential goal that Russia can achieve if Ukraine won’t receive necessary support.
A peace deal with Russia that involves ceding territories would likely lead to the mobilization of local inhabitants into the Russian army, as seen in Donetsk, where the entire male population has been conscripted, and local estates and businesses were overtaken by Russians or their puppet government.
There exists no middle ground or partial solution. It’s either Ukraine wins, or it faces not only the loss of statehood but also the erosion of its national identity through forceful Russification.
If a minority of Republicans in Congress really block aid to Ukraine, the US is at risk of seeming not just like an unreliable ally, but an unserious ally. A silly ally. https://t.co/ULx05eIuVu
— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) January 27, 2024
From The Atlantic:
Updated at 7:02 a.m. ET on January 27, 2024
As I write this I am in Warsaw, 170 miles from Poland’s border with Ukraine. The front line, where Ukrainians are right now fighting and dying, is another 450 miles beyond that. Not so far, in other words. A long day’s drive. I am well within range of Russian missiles, the kind that have hit Kyiv, Odesa, and Lviv so many times over the past two years.
Tens of millions of other people—Poles, Germans, Romanians, Finns, Estonians, Swedes, Slovaks, Lithuanians, Czechs, Latvians, Norwegians—are also in range of Russian conventional missiles, whether launched from Belarus, Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, or Russia itself. Anyone in Europe could also be hit by Russian nuclear weapons, of course, as Russian television propagandists so frequently like to remind us. Dmitri Medvedev, a former Russian president, in recent months has threatened Poland with the loss of its statehood, threatened Sweden and Finland with nuclear and hypersonic missiles, and said the Baltic states belong to Russia anyway.
Most of the time, the possibility of Russian aggression doesn’t affect anybody or change anything. No one talks about it. Life goes on as normal. In Finland and Romania, preparations for presidential elections are under way. In Germany, farmers are on strike. Lithuania is holding an international light festival.
The moment the Ukrainians start to lose, all of that will change. For the past few months, Western observers have been tossing around the word stalemate, as if the Russian invasion of Ukraine had settled into some kind of dull, permanent stasis. In fact, the battlefield is dynamic. The front line is constantly changing, and the changes, both material and psychological, are starting to favor Russia. The Ukrainians are just as brave as they were a year ago and just as innovative. Their drones recently hit a Russian gas depot near St. Petersburg, hundreds of miles from Ukraine, among other targets. With no navy of their own, they have pushed much of the Russian Black Sea fleet away from their shores. But on the ground, in the southern and eastern parts of their country, they are rationing ammunition. They’ve never had sufficient missiles and bullets, and now they are at risk of not having enough to keep fighting at all.
Were their front line to fall back dramatically, the horrific violence alone would trigger a shock wave through the rest of Europe. Russian occupation of more territory would continue to mean what it has meant for the past two years: torture chambers, random arrests, and thousands of kidnapped children. But an even deeper, broader shock wave would be triggered by the growing realization that the United States is not just an unreliable ally, but an unserious ally. A silly ally. Unlike the European Union, which collectively spends more money on Ukraine than Americans do but can’t yet produce as many weapons, the U.S. still has ammunition and weapons to send. Now Washington is on the verge of refusing to do so, but not because the White House has had a change of heart.
The looming end of American aid to Ukraine is not a policy decision. For two years, the Biden administration successfully led an international coalition to provide not soldiers but rather military aid to Ukraine. Officials convened regular meetings, consulted with allies, pulled in military support from around the world. Majorities in the U.S. continue to support Ukraine. Majorities in both houses of Congress do too. The Senate is said to have its legislation almost ready to go. But now, for reasons that outsiders find impossible to understand, a minority of Republican members of Congress, in a fit of political pique, are preparing to cut it all off. They might succeed.
Many different, bad choices led to this moment. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s decision last summer to cut Ukraine out of a larger budget bill was the first. The strange idea to link Ukraine aid to controversial changes to U.S. immigration law and border policy was the second. The ballots cast by voters in Iowa and New Hampshire then put Donald Trump on a seemingly unstoppable path to the Republican presidential nomination; Trump’s telephone calls to Republican senators, telling them to kill the Ukraine/border legislation, suddenly mattered. His motives are blatantly selfish: He wants the U.S.-Mexico border to remain chaotic so that he can use the issue in his campaign. He doesn’t want Biden to benefit from any perceived solution or progress. And he doesn’t care if Ukraine runs out of ammunition as a result.
To the outside world, none of the logic behind any of these decisions makes sense. All they can see is that the American political system has been hijacked and rendered dysfunctional by a radical, pro-Russian faction led by Trump—a disgraced ex-president who used violence and deceit to try to remain in office.
By abandoning Ukraine in a fit of political incompetence, Americans will consent to the deaths of more Ukrainians and the further destruction of the country. We will convince millions of Europeans that we are untrustworthy. We will send a message to Russia and China too, reinforcing their frequently stated belief that the U.S. is a degenerate, dying power. Less than a year ago, when Biden made his surprise trip to Kyiv, the U.S. projected confidence and unity as the leader of a functional alliance. Now, suddenly, we don’t.
Elected legislators don’t get that many opportunities to make a real mark on the world. But right now, the actions of just a few congressional Republicans could help stop a series of bad decisions from morphing into a worse one. This is their chance to make America serious again. Do they have the courage to take it?
If you are angered by this, as some here seem to be…please write to your Senator and your member of Congress, and let them know
— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) January 27, 2024
Julia Davis at The Daily Beast from December 2023:
Republicans voted to block a $110.5 billion emergency spending bill to aid Ukraine and Israel Wednesday night, sparking celebrations in Moscow where they believe the U.S. will withdraw support for Kyiv allowing them to win the war.
A classified briefing with administration officials reportedly devolved into a meltdown on Tuesday afternoon, making it clear that the measure would fail. “We are about to abandon Ukraine,” Senator Christopher S. Murphy told the press as he left the briefing. “When Vladimir Putin marches into a NATO country, they will rue the day they decided to play politics with the future of Ukraine’s security.”
These developments prompted jubilation in Moscow. During Wednesday’s broadcast of a state TV program 60 Minutes, Evgeny Popov said Ukraine was now in “agony” and it was “difficult to imagine a bigger humiliation.”
During his morning show Full Contact on Wednesday, top pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov joyfully noted: “[Janet] Yellen screamed, “Don’t you dare!” [Joe] Biden screamed, “Don’t you dare!” but Republicans said, “Go to hell! We won’t give your khokhols [slur for “Ukrainians”] any money.” The segment was entitled, “No one needs Ukraine anymore—especially the United States.”
Appearing on his program, America analyst Dmitry Drobnitsky noted, “The downfall of Ukraine means the downfall of Biden! Two birds with one stone!”
During his appearance on 60 Minutes, Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, predicted that the fiasco with the funding for Ukraine will spell the political demise of Biden. Host Olga Skabeeva added, “We’ll have no pity for him! To the contrary, we’re ready to hammer those final nails right in!” With a happy grin, Skabeeva said, “Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us.”
Roman Golovanov, the host of Golovanov’s Time on Vladimir Solovyov’s channel Solovyov Live, pointed out, “This will be a great revelation to other countries. It is even more dangerous to be a friend of the United States than its enemy. In the end, they will abandon you, leaving nothing but the scorched earth on your territory.”
The GOP’s willingness to jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to defend itself provided a sudden boost to the faltering Russian propagandists—a crucial element of Putin’s war effort that is used to motivate the masses. In recent months, their rhetoric devolved from “When we win” to “If we win,” reflecting realities on the ground. Winter’s arrival added another layer of concern. The Republicans brought back the joy for Putin’s gloomy propagandists, reviving their musings as to how they will “punish” Ukrainians once Russia wins.
The GOP’s willingness to jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to defend itself provided a sudden boost to the faltering Russian propagandists—a crucial element of Putin’s war effort that is used to motivate the masses. In recent months, their rhetoric devolved from “When we win” to “If we win,” reflecting realities on the ground. Winter’s arrival added another layer of concern. The Republicans brought back the joy for Putin’s gloomy propagandists, reviving their musings as to how they will “punish” Ukrainians once Russia wins.
More at the link!
Kyiv:
Kyiv's bookshops offer a unique discount today: Bring in Russian language books for recycling, and the funds go towards purchasing a truck for the air defense unit. The place has never been more crowded. If that’s what Putin had in mind? pic.twitter.com/wCOHnjBMY3
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 27, 2024
Remarkable. Much of what's here was razed, the Kyiv we know today rebuilt over it. But see TsUM shopping mall in 📸 2? It was one of few bldgs intact. Standing at corner of Khreshchatyk St & Bohdana Khmelnytskoho St, it underwent a renovation in 2016, but historic facade remains. https://t.co/IOQcpJOMDY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 27, 2024
That’s horrible. I can’t imagine what they felt. So many are experiencing it now, yet again. It is a dark time.
— John Vsetecka (@JohnVsetecka) January 24, 2024
Indeed.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 27, 2024
Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblasts!
Magyar publishes footage of a massive explosion of a Russian ammo stock in Krynky on 27 January, saying "Worms will have no ammo to shoot tonight".https://t.co/AClvqohDFr pic.twitter.com/DabzQO7Gkl
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 27, 2024
Magyar’s Birds continue their hunt!
They, and similar units, could use some resupply!
🐈🇺🇦 Big ongoing campaign for the drones and transport for 36th and 56th Brigades. https://t.co/Rivb2H3axy
The drones are intended for a unit that operates in the direction of Krynky, Kherson region. If you have been watching this area of the front, you know that the vast… https://t.co/64xiFzcI7S
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 27, 2024
🐈🇺🇦 Big ongoing campaign for the drones and transport for 36th and 56th Brigades.
http://help99.co/patches/special-kherson-cat-6th-patches-campaign
The drones are intended for a unit that operates in the direction of Krynky, Kherson region. If you have been watching this area of the front, you know that the vast majority of Russian forces and AFVs destroyed there are the result of the use of Drones. Therefore, it is important to ensure that at this part of the front the “Drone Army” is always in its best shape.
Avdiivka:
110th Mechanised Brigade repels another mindless zombie assault in Avdiivka. Wave after wave they're sending these groups in the hopes of establishing a foothold, but all they find is death.https://t.co/dlYHWFkyEj pic.twitter.com/nYO1886q3K
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 27, 2024
I know the Soviet inheritance is truly huge but if 2024 continues in this vein I really wonder just how many MBT, IFV, SPH etc RF will be able to field in 6 or 12 months. https://t.co/Ipd7tlTZuQ
— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) January 27, 2024
Belgorod Oblast, Russia:
Belgorod, Special Military Operation Zone.
About 1h ago. pic.twitter.com/6ns247VCkA
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 27, 2024
Illovaisk, Russia:
Photo of the aftermath of the strike on Russian drone operators in Illovaisk https://t.co/aQPj6UkMb1 pic.twitter.com/3umVf5uMjK
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 27, 2024
For you thermobaric enthusiasts:
🇺🇦 drone pilots gave some warmth to the occupier's tank in these cold winter days.
📹: 103rd @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/r4faK2T61k
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 27, 2024
For you counter-drone enthusiasts:
These Shahed-136/131 have been apparently downed mostly intact. Of it would be only one then it could be a malfunction but three separate events indicate the usage of electronic warfare. Especially the first pictures shows a trail behind the drone. It landed as softly as… pic.twitter.com/mqHAoyVYsv
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 27, 2024
These Shahed-136/131 have been apparently downed mostly intact. Of it would be only one then it could be a malfunction but three separate events indicate the usage of electronic warfare. Especially the first pictures shows a trail behind the drone. It landed as softly as possible.
Source of pics: https://t.me/operativnoZSU
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, which is now also International Holocaust Remembrance Day.
We have to remember. Always pic.twitter.com/uO8CA411eS
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 27, 2024
I was not a member of the unions and I was not concerned. Then Hitler attacked me and the Protestant church — and there was nobody left to be concerned."
— Martin Niemöller, German pastor and Holocaust survivor— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 27, 2024
The 79th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.
Watch live.https://t.co/NwIvTqApYV
— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) January 27, 2024
Open thread!
Lapassionara
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Lapassionara: You’re most welcome.
Devore
How can the republicans live with themselves after seeing the Russians celebrating
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Yarrow
Thanks, Adam. That bookstore discount thing is inspiring.
Alison Rose
Unfortunately, too many people in this country and elsewhere simply don’t care about this outcome. If you asked every Republican who blocked the bill how they feel about russia celebrating it, they’d probably say they’re fine and dandy with it. Or else they would act SHOCKED AND APPALLED that you could even suggest such a thing. Because they are absolutely nothing but hateful and mendacious.
Zelenskyy’s FB post on Holocaust Rememberance Day:
(Which includes some of his ancestors. And now he’s being called a Nazi by people who seem to be doing their level best to take the History’s Greatest Monster title away from Hitler. This world, man. I don’t even know.)
Thank you as always, Adam.
dimmsdale
@Devore: Well, Republicans……river crossing, scorpion, “you knew what I was”…..what I’m wondering is if the catastrophe that the loss of Ukraine would be, is sinking in yet among Biden’s policy elite, or if any of them are wondering, “Why didn’t we do more when we were able to?”
Thanks as always, Adam, & perpetual respect and admiration for everything you do here.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re most welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: My comment was not meant as criticism toward you, just Hal Brand. I am glad that you are highlighting diverse opinions. In fact, given the extraordinary changes happening in the world across a multitude of axes, we should be paying more attention to heterodox voices. They all need to be evaluated critically, anyway.
Thanks for your perseverance & dedication in keep up w/ these daily posts. I wish you had the time & bandwidth to cover the slowly escalating regional conflagration in the ME, too, for I think it will be as great a challenge to the world as it is as Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine. However, your health & sanity has priority!
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: No worries, I didn’t take it that way. It did, however, give me a reason to provide that explanation.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: @Alison Rose: @dimmsdale: You’re all quite welcome.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. I don’t write much, but I try to check your post every night. Republicans make me want to vomit.
Citizen Alan
@Devore: Because they identify ideologically with Putin in every way that matters. They are all fascist white supremacist homophobic Christianist bigots. Putin is their God. And Trump is their Jesus.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I think an important point in your opening paragraph is that some of these voices are influential not because they are members of major think tanks & get published in the FA, but because of the deep access to policymakers (whether the administration is D or R), or because they are themselves policymakers in waiting. They do not attain access because of the think tanks, the think tanks benefit from their access to remain relevant.
To the CFR’s credit, the FA publishes heterodox voices such as Emma Ashford & Van Jackson, too, but they have far less access to foreign policy decision makers than the likes of Samuel Charap & Richard Haas (or Hal Brand, or John Mearsheimer), precisely because they each in their own ways challenge the orthodoxy. As you have mentioned in the past, this is the clubby nature of foreign policy circles, & this “good ole boys” club do include women such as Michelle Flournoy.
IMHO, the past 3 Dem Administrations have struggled break outside of foreign policy orthodoxy. I think the Clinton Administration was largely captured in whole on both foreign policy & economic policy, & instead laid the foundation for break down of the current international order (such as it is). The Obama Administration made some attempts to escape, but largely compromised to get through through GFC & settled for adjustments at the edges, & thus failed to fundamentally address the domestic & international contradictions that were already visibly stressing the domestic & international order. The Biden Administration have made more progress on the domestic front, but not on foreign policy (which will limit the impact of the domestic policy agenda, too), & thus the international order is coming apart at the seams in front of our eyes.
All 3 settled to one extent or another for technocratic management, but what is technocracy but orthodoxy executed w/ some degree of competence? If orthodoxy had been large correct, the world order would not be challenged as it is.
Nukular Biskits
Been a while since I last visited.
Thanks for the updates, Adam!
wjca
Does that “landed as softly as possible” mean that there’s a possibility of refurbishing them and sending them back the other direction? Seems wildly optimistic on its face. But the Ukrainians have done amazing things with less.
wjca
Not that difficult for them. After all, they are Russian partisans. The Russians celebrating just means their efforts are on target and are appreciated.
Origuy
I watched an interesting video about how the strategic importance of Kaliningrad has changed since Finland joined NATO. Before that, the border between Poland and Lithuania was a chokepoint for NATO to defend the Baltic states. Now, not so much and Kaliningrad may be more of a liability to Russia. I don’t know who the Icarus project is, but they made a nice video.
https://youtu.be/Yki6pigUbfw?si=oqA6kJL3ffhYBEXH
ETA. I hadn’t known that there is an independence movement in Kaliningrad with fairly strong support.
Jinchi
I think we should stop giving Republicans the benefit of the doubt that they have NATO’s interests at heart. We’re well beyond the time when we could assume that the only Republicans that Putin paid were Rohrabacher and Trump.
The rightwing of the Republican party would be popping champagne corks if Putin rolled tanks into Kyiv, and they very much want us to leave NATO.
trnc
As we’ve learned, the easiest way to offend republicans is to quote them accurately in context.
Odie Hugh Manatee
Once again our Republicans are making Ruzzians happy and giving the Ruzzians hope that they can not only defeat Ukraine but also by extension, Joe Biden! Of course the Republicans won’t care a whit that it also means that America lost and that their actions weaken our nation and endanger world peace. Nope, trivial matters like that don’t bother them one bit because they will just blame Joe Biden and the Democrats and once again our compliant conservative ball-sucking media will act as stenographers for Republicans.
Can’t we just declare the Republican party a terrorist threat to our nation? I sure hope to fuck that they get absolutely punished this fall. I want to see the traitor Republican party defeated and demoralized. Fuck them all.
Ksmiami
Biden should seize emergency powers and allocate weapons to Ukraine. I mean this is fucking urgent.
Andrya
@Ksmiami: I posted this idea a week or so ago, and Another Scott answered with legal details why this is not legally possible.
It appears that confiscating russian assets is more feasible, but they should go to weapons, not rebuilding.