There was a request the other night for a post on the war in Gaza. I indicated I’d try to get one done this weekend, so here we are.
There are two reasons I’ve not been doing updates on this war like I’ve done on the war for Ukraine. The first is simply time. I just don’t have the time to do two war updates a day. The second is I really don’t have a lot more to say. Since I entered grad school in 1992 I’ve written a couple of thousand pages on Israeli and Palestinian extremism, its effect on the security in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, its effect on the Levant, the greater Middle East, the European Command and now Central Command areas of responsibility, and US policy and strategy. Had you told 20 year old me sitting in Bruce Maddy Weitzman’s senior seminar on Middle Eastern Politics that I would, twenty-three years later, be working on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process assigned to a 3 star commander as his senior advisor, I’d have laughed at you and told you you were crazy. If you told me I’d still be writing about the conflict, even if it is just for you all here, I’d have said that was depressing.
So with that enthusiastic intro out of the way, here’s what’s going on: THE ONLY PEOPLE WINNING, THE ONLY PEOPLE BENEFITING FROM THIS WAR ARE THE SPOILERS. THE EXTREMISTS IN HAMAS AND THE ULTRA-NATIONALIST/ULTRA-RELIGIOUS ISRAELI PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS, THEIR LEADERS LIKE SINWAR, BIBI, HANIYEH, BEN-GVIR, SMOTRICH, ETC!!!! IRAN, THE PRC, AND RUSSIA!!!! AND THE ANTISEMITES, ISLAMOPHOBES, NEO-NAZIS, AND WHITE SUPREMACISTS IN THE US AND EUROPE!!!! That’s the bottom line. The Palestinians and the Israelis are not getting anything positive out of this war. They’re not getting more security or more prosperity. They’re getting nothing other than killed, wounded, and further impoverished. For the Palestinians in Gaza this means disproportionate death, injury, displacement, and being forced into further food and economic insecurity. In Israel it means emphasizing the garrison state nature of Israel combined with constant fear from Hamas and Hezbullah rocket attacks, the majority of the population of Israel’s south and north being internally displaced because of them, families mourning their 1,200 dead, constantly freaked over their relatives still held hostage, worried about their relatives called up to fight, all while the Israeli economy strains under the cost of the war. For the Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as for the Armenian-Israeli community in the Armenian Quarter, it means trying to simply keep your land from being forcibly stolen by a combination of extremist settlers, IDF personnel aiding and abetting the extremist settlers, and the police who are now controlled by Ben-Gvir a convicted terrorist without getting arrested, beaten, and/or killed.
It isn’t even like Israel is being successful in its Gazan operations. Despite Bibi’s claims that Israel would maintain security control over all of Gaza once the war ends, Israel cannot even maintain security control over many parts of Gaza since they cleared it. Rather, the Palestinian Gazan police are back on patrol now that the Israelis have pulled back or moved to other areas of operation. The Israelis have now acknowledged they’ll never destroy Hamas’s tunnel system.
In the meantime Bibi and his surrogates and catspaws have now moved on to a new strategic objective: absolute victory even as they have to reintensify the operations in Khan Younis because what they had been doing wasn’t working.
💥Branding & merch! Top Netanyahu aide Yonatan Urich showed off his new press conference duds at Netanyahu's hectoring presser last night. https://t.co/DwXYLSGU9O
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 28, 2024
Bibi is now blaming the families of the hostages for his inability to defeat Hamas, and Israeli reservists as well.
💥💥💥Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu blames hostages' families for Hamas' "hardened positions" in negotiations for the captives' freedom. Think about it. https://t.co/InIz1bYlMa
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024
💥🎻Ben Caspit notes that it was after @SadeYuval of @Calcalist mentioned to Netanyahu that he had just returned from 100 days of Gaza reserve duty, that Netanyahu replied "I fight Hamas and you fight the prime minister." https://t.co/Djc6kmFQAl
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024
If you’re wondering how Israel commemorated International Holocaust Remembrance Day, well the police spent it assaulting and arresting protestors, including the family members of hostages, for protesting Bibi under orders of Ben-Givr. Have I mentioned he’s a convicted terrorist?
💥Five arrested in Tel Aviv protest https://t.co/WN4SsUUrcc
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024
💥A Jerusalem woman is on her way to hospital with a back injury after police dragged her along King George V Street. (@nirhasson) pic.twitter.com/tHX8i6tD4e
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024
💥See the degree of police force used to disperse protesters in Jerusalem (@JbareenYanal) pic.twitter.com/vKX5NpQNHB
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024
The only member of the Israeli war cabinet or the Palestinian leadership that is making any sense/speaking truth to power right now is Gadi Eisenkot who has called for better diplomatic efforts and compromise to be made to bring the hostages home. Bibi, of course, has been busy insulting everyone involved in those negotiations.
The US’s response has been all over the map. Bush 43 holdover Brett McGurk, who has somehow survived and worked his way up through two Republican and two Democratic administrations while working different parts of this problem set and the counter-ISIS problem set in a variety of special envoy appointments, despite being an attorney without formal diplomatic training or any subject matter expertise in the Middle East, has now quadrupled down on his preferred initiative: Israeli-Saudi Arabian normalization. This is now being dangled as the carrot for Bibi to agree to a two state solution. Bibi will never do that. Neither will Gantz. This should also not be new to McGurk. I wrote the strategic assessment explaining that the Israeli right of center leadership, parties, and movements had abandoned the two state solution in July 2014. This assessment was distributed to the then special envoy’s senior staff, which, at the time, included McGurk. I know my boss, the Commanding General of US Army Europe read it, as well as the senior staff. I know his boss, the Commanding General of EUCOM/SACEUR read it as he assigned it as the read of the week for the entire command. I know LTG McMaster read it as I sent him a courtesy copy when he was the Director of ARCIC, so he was informed of this before he became the National Security Advisor. The CENTCOM Commander also got a courtesy copy. His name was Lloyd Austen. As did the then director of policy at OSD-Policy, who is currently the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Plans. No one can say they weren’t warned. Nor that they were not given a plausible alternative strategy, which I wrote into the assessment.
The simple reality is that the US desperately needs new policies and strategies in regard to the Middle East, the Levant, the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Gulf States, and the states of the Arabian peninsula (Saudi and Yemen). Right now everything is more of the same that has not been working for between twenty to thirty years or is completely reactive because none of our policies and strategies have been revised or replaced over the same time period. This is why you can see reporting multiple times a day of the US and its coalition partners playing whack a mole in different parts of the Middle East. Supposedly this is to deter further aggression by a variety of groups – the Houthis, Iranian backed paramilitaries in Iraq and Syria, Hezbullah, etc – and assure/reassure our allies, partners, and international shipping and insurers. It is doing neither of these because these are purely tactical responses to strategic problems. It is what happens when everyone is screaming at the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Geographic Combatant Commander to do something. The entire dynamic is like the Chris Farley “For the love of G-d, do something…” meme come to life.
Right now our policies make no sense for the reality of the problem sets in the region. The objectives, or ends, can never be achieved by the strategies we’ve developed. We are living in the reality of policy cannot ask of strategy that which policy will not provide. Specifically, achievable objectives. It is not just us. Hamas’s objectives are not achievable. Neither are Israel’s, the Houthis, Iran’s, or the Saudi’s. Whatever the US’s objectives actually are are not achievable either because, as I explained to the senior leaders working this problem 9 and 1/2 years ago, they are out of alignment with the reality on the ground. Not much has changed in those 9 and 1/2 years. Someone should do a parody of the Who’s Teenage Wasteland entitled Strategic Wasteland.
Israel should have the following strategic objectives in the post 7 October fight with Hamas:
- Get their hostages back.
- Reduce Hamas’s capacity and capability to threaten Israel and spoil security and peace initiatives.
- Assess what went wrong within the intelligence and security services, the military, and the political decision making that led to Hamas being successful on 7 October.
- Develop a strategy to fix what went wrong and then implement it quickly and effectively.
From careful observation I have concluded that these are not, in fact, Israel’s strategic objectives in the war with Hamas. What Israel is doing is actually making it harder to get the hostages back, doesn’t actually appear to be really reducing Hamas’s capacity and capabilities despite all the death and destruction, and even the tepid review of just the military and military intelligence failures that the Chief of the IDF announced has now been cancelled because of political pushback by the extremists in Bibi’s cabinet and governing coalition.
Things will continue on as they’ve been going until something else goes really wrong. Then things will get worse.
Enjoy the remainder of your weekends.
Open thread!
Chacal Charles Calthrop
Thank you for all your through and hard work with this post and all the Ukraine posts.
I actually think the real winner is Netanyahu, because he wants to avoid an election in which he could be beaten. if this is true, then Israel doesn’t even want to “create a wasteland and call it peace,” as Tacitus observed so many centuries ago, but to just to keep enough of a war on that the situation will never stabilize enough for an Israeli election. i therefore agree with Dan Nexon over a LG&M.
Damien
Lack of achievable objectives mixed with inflexible leadership convinced of their moral superiority seems like a great recipe for utterly intractable conflict.
Adam, if we take as gospel the idea that the US could exert pressure sufficient to end Israel’s assault, and let’s go even further and say sufficient to bring them to the negotiating table; who has the power to force Palestine to the table as well? And who would even sit down? PA? It sure as hell can’t be Hamas, so who?
Bex
Are the deaths of three American troops and the injury of at least 35 more in a drone attack in Jordan the beginning of things going really wrong?
Dagaetch
Thank you, Adam.
The situation just feels utterly hopeless. For Ukraine I have hope that if we could just get our shit together long enough to give the Ukrainians the resources they need, things would get better. But I honestly don’t see any real path forward for Israel and the Palestinians. Even if the Israeli population rose up and threw Bibi out of office, there isn’t enough willingness to make the sacrifices that would be necessary to implement a real path forward. On either side, really. It’s just so sad.
Eunicecycle
@Bex: I am wondering about that, too.
Bex
@Eunicecycle: Republicans are already screaming appeasement (of Iran) by Biden.
B1naryS3rf
How much of this new “gradual then sudden” perpetual catastrophe is tied in to the forced weaning of the West from its petrochemical addiction? It seems intuitive that it would make the Middle East even more unstable, not less. To say nothing of Russia’s rabid animal fits.
Tony Jay
Yeah. Pretty much all this. Can’t fault it.
A horrible situation dominated by increasingly bad actors all wearing a shifting array of white and black hats depending on the audience viewing them, with anyone who possibly could or would improve the situation even a little bit getting minced up and rolled flat by a machine that eats good intentions and shits out profit.
But we can’t turn away, because it’s going to keep on being what it is regardless, and if it doesn’t get ‘solved’ in a way that a majority of those in the cockpit can live with, its eventually going to blow up in a way nobody can ignore however deep they stick their fingers in their ears, but the policies being followed by ‘our’ governments aren’t going to get us there. Arguably they’re a major factor in how and why it’s got to this level of obscenity, where the people suffering most are the ones expected to make all the sacrifices for a peace their abusers don’t want and are under no pressure to provide.
To say the Israel/Palestine issue requires a comprehensive course correction on every conceivable level is an understatement so vast it becomes almost meaningless. Everything about it has to change, but how likely is that to happen?
So the beast shambles on.
Harrison Wesley
And just to stir the pot a bit harder, Iran and Russia are getting much chummier.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-And-Iran-Finalize-20-Year-Deal-That-Will-Change-The-Middle-East-Forever.html
Peke Daddy
@B1naryS3rf: I think it’s not so much securing US petroleum from the Mideast than controlling the spigot for the rest of the world.
TBone
I’m breaking my policy (of not commenting on war stuff) to say thank you, Adam.
New Deal democrat
@Bex:
Only if that wasn’t the plan all along.
Lately I have been thinking a lot of Don Corleone’s line in The Godfather: “Until this very day, I did not know that it was Barzini all along.”
Way back in Ontober, I wondered what Hamas’s plan was. Kidnapping 200 Israelis could have been brilliant. But killing 1200 Israelis (the equivalent of 12 9/11’s as to the Israeli population) has been disastrous – and easily predicted. It makes no sense strategically for Hamas.
But if Hamas and the Gazans were just unfortunate pawns in a bigger game by some othe player designed to suck the US in, among other things, as an act of revenge best served cold, it makes perfect sense.
Iran says hello.
Alison Rose
@New Deal democrat:
…what.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@TBone:
Same here. Being involved over at Teh Orange all these years, first rule: never comment, engage or otherwise acknowledge anything I/P related.
Thanks Adam.
Andrya
Thanks as always, Adam.
Three observations jump out at me.
First, my understanding is that PM Netanyahu is still under indictment for corruption, and that the moment he ceases to be PM, he is at risk of prison. Also, given the gross failures of the Israeli security system, the minute the war is over/under control, Netanyahu is probably no longer PM. And, Netanyahu cares for his own self interest much more than he cares for the interest of the State of Israel. Ergo, Netanyahu will prolong the war as long as he possibly can.
Second, a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is absolutely useless as a step towards peace. Saudi Arabia, run by MBS (“Mr. Bone Saw”) does not care a rat’s ass about the Palestinians, or anyone else. Saudi Arabia and Israel are not really enemies- they already have a common interest in crushing Iran, preferably by luring/provoking the US into war with Iran. Saying “We’ve got peace! Israel and Saudi Arabia are making up!” is equivalent to saying “We’re throwing the Palestinians to the wolves”.
Third, the Gaza situation shows the disastrous effects of zero-sum thinking. When Israel officially pulled out of Gaza, the best strategy for Israel would have been to ASSIST and PROMOTE the Palestinian economy in Gaza- people who are thriving economically are not attracted to terrorism. Instead, Israel systematically crushed the Gaza economy- blocking any import of the means of production, enforcing a 2 mile limit on fishing in the Mediterranean. There are times, and this is one of them, when the best strategy is to help your enemies to do well. (Consider the aftermath of the two world wars. In 1919, we indulged in zero sum thinking- make the Germans as miserable as possible! The result was Hitler. After World War II, the western allies spent a lot of money to rebuild Germany to prosperity- the result was a peaceful, democratic state.)
Adam L Silverman
@Damien: I wouldn’t take that as gospel. As long as Bibi is PM, the US has a limited ability to compel Israel to do anything.
Adam L Silverman
@Bex: We’re way past the beginning of things going really wrong. We are very far to the right of boom.
Omnes Omnibus
For now. Who knows when les sales Boches will raise their mailed fists and spiky helmets again.
Adam L Silverman
@TBone: You’re most welcome.
ColoradoGuy
As Jimmy Carter found out the hard way, this is a region that grinds up idealists. He probably never knew, until much later, that the Reagan team was making deals with the hostage-takers. And now, forty-plus years later, Russian fascist billionaires, the same Iranian mullahs, Hamas terrorists, and criminal Israeli leaders are happy to see everything blow up. It works out just fine for them.
And this time around, the GOP fascists and the Russian fascists are working together, along with an Australian billionaire propagandist who controls a good chunk of US media.
Haroldo
As always, Adam, I very much appreciate the time, experience, and wisdom you put in your analyses.
Thank you.
Adam L Silverman
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: You’re welcome too.
New Deal democrat
@Alison Rose: I meant brilliant in a fish-eyed, not moral, way. Because Israel has been willing to extremely disproportionate ransomes. Obviously it would still be vile.
Nukular Biskits
[Posting mobile]
Adam, is this assessment in the public domain?
Would love to read it.
Adam L Silverman
@Haroldo: You’re welcome.
Yarrow
Thanks, Adam.
None of this is my area of expertise but I have felt this way for years. It seems unsolvable. What more can anyone say?
Eventually something will happen – major war, nuclear weapons, climate change, serious natural disaster, meteor. Something. And then it will change. Until then it just seems impossible to find a way forward.
I’ve vaguely been reading of young people in the US, and maybe elsewhere in the west (I don’t know), being pretty horrified by the Israel they see. I get it. This Netanyahu Israel is all they’ve known. That’s not great for Israel as time goes forward and those young people move into positions of power and become more dependable voters. That may be another thing that changes thing as they force US policy to change.
Princess
On October 7, when I first heard the news, I said that only the wicked would benefit from this; all the people of good will would lose. I guess I wasn’t far off and it breaks my heart.
The people outside the conflict who I cannot cope with are the ones who have picked a side and dehumanize the other side.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: It is not. Or I’d have just posted it here.
Nukular Biskits
@Tony Jay:
I disagree.
Those hats are varying shades of gray.
Alison Rose
@New Deal democrat: Okay. Maybe a different word choice next time.
Andrya
@Damien: I would not rule out the Palestinian Authority. They made a significant concession recognizing Israel’s right to exist in 1993, and got nothing, nada, in return. Netanyahu has explicitly stated that there will never be a Palestinian state on the West Bank.
Also, if you don’t want people to indulge in terrorism, it’s probably a good idea to allow them to use nonviolent means to promote their goals. The PA has tried this- the Boycott, Divest, and Sanctions (BDS) is a nonviolent attempt to pressure Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. It has been declared utterly unacceptable in the US- not only on the right, but on much of the left. Many jobs/contracts in the US require the applicant to promise never to cooperate with BDS. If Israel under Netanyahu is intransigent (which it is), and terrorism is unacceptable, and boycotts are unacceptable, what exactly are the Palestinians supposed to do?
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s a shame.
Harrison Wesley
I didn’t mean to forget earlier, Adam. Thank you so much for researching and writing this – I’m sure it was no fun at all for you.
hrprogressive
As a complete and utter layperson, I struggle to see how there is ever anything resembling an enduring peace in this region.
First and foremost because of varying flavors of eschatological “goals” around which this region is purported to be the nexus of same. These people do not want peace, they want to be the mechanisms for their own specific prophecies coming true.
This is never acknowledged by anyone in public discourse that I’ve seen, so, either people are unaware of it (doubtful) and/or just don’t know what to do about it. I don’t see how you negotiate anything with people who view the world through which one of those lenses they might be using.
Second, the religous/ethnic/racial divides between the inhabitants of this region. When there are people who view “the other side” as unworthy of basic human rights, or even basic existential rights, similar to the above, I just don’t know how you negotiate with people who view things this way.
Third, you have varying levels of…I’m not sure how to word it, but more generalized versions of fascism/authoritarianism that may not specifically have the flavors of the first two buckets involved, but still generally involve things like, you know, global dominance and/or subjugation. See, PRC, Russia, and whatnot.
Then finally the fourth bucket which is likely about oil and profit out of the general middle east and/or the defense contractors who can’t wait to make billions off calamity.
I just fail to see how this doesn’t end – eventually, not necessarily “tomorrow – in either a massive “hot” war involving way more parties than are currently fighting it.
Like. Short of enough citizens, namely in Israel almost certainly, throwing out their literal government en masses and starting over with people more interested in things like a “Two State Solution” I just. I don’t see it.
Again, I admit my perspective is fairly limited, and I’d love to be wrong about what civilians in the area would like to see (generally not dying en masse) being achievable, but yeah.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
I should have added that, as always, I appreciate the effort and analysis.
Being “in the business”, so to speak (although more technical than strategic), this is an area of interest for me.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: You’re welcome and this is a pretty accurate take.
TBone
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: what is Teh Orange?
trollhattan
Bullet list seems devastatingly accurate and damning in equal measure. Thanks Adam, very helpful in teasing apart the many wretched aspects of Bibi’s war response. He didn’t start it but he sure seems enthused by it. Is Cheney on his speed dial?
How the nation of Israel claws back their international reputation I cannot begin to guess; they’re headed where we were after invading Iraq. All that squandered good will.
Adam L Silverman
@Harrison Wesley: You’re most welcome.
West of the Rockies
@Harrison Wesley:
No wonder Tuckems is horrified that Iran might eventually be in the crosshairs over its incessant piggy shit espionage.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: You’re most welcome. I just sent a test message to the email you use to comment here.
Adam L Silverman
@TBone: Probably Daily Kos. Referred to as the Great Orange Satan.
TBone
@Adam L Silverman: thank you again 😊
Jay
Thank you Adam.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
👍
RaflW
@Bex:
2007: McCain says bomb ran.
2024: Republicans want to appease Iran.
Between this and Trump & Co’s desire to cozy up to Putin, it feels like a tectonic shift towards the shitty.
Nukular Biskits
Currently in Honolulu … pro-Palestinian solidarity rally taking place in Fort Derussy Park
Nukular Biskits
@Nukular Biskits: Would post pics/vid, if I could.
Tony Jay
@Nukular Biskits:
Well sure, which is why I stressed “…depending on the audience viewing them.”
The idea was that, for most audiences, there have to be Goodies and there have to be Baddies, and bad actors will be shoved into those roles no matter how bad the fit.
The real world does not, as you rightly say, operate on those lines.
Nukular Biskits
@RaflW:
Maybe I missed something … Republicans want to appease Iran?
Nukular Biskits
@Tony Jay:
I recall reading something years ago by a “liberal” pundit to the effect that “conservatives” (quotes my sarcastic emphasis) see the world in binary terms whereas “libs” saw nuance and shades of gray.
To borrow from the lyrics from a Statler Brothers song, “Life gets complicated when you get past 18”, life isn’t binary.
Chris
@Nukular Biskits:
They do, and they don’t.
We got a preview of this with Obama in Libya and Syria. Republicans were furious because Obama was weak and emboldening our enemies. Republicans were also furious because Obama was a socialist dictator who was doing things like launch air strikes without a congressional declaration of war, which, don’t you know, is unconstitutional. After the so-called “red line” about WMD use in Syria was crossed, Obama put the issue before the (by now Republican-controlled) Congress and basically told them, fine, I’m not going to do anything in Syria when I know that whatever I do you’re going to be working overtime to sabotage behind the scenes, so what do you want to do about this? And they never made any decision, because any decision they could have made would have involved them and Obama deciding something jointly, and doing anything with the Kenyan Muslim Socialist Usurper was basically politically impossible for them.
Same basic principle here. They don’t want Biden doing anything because they don’t want to have to work with him on anything, and also because anything he does runs the risk that he’ll succeed, which might make him look better, which can’t be allowed.
Librarian
Thank you for this, Adam.
Nukular Biskits
@Chris:
Can’t say as I disagree with that explanation.
Tony Jay
@Nukular Biskits:
Conservatives and ‘The Approved Narrative Conventions Bureau of Medialand’.
For similar reasons. It’s easier to sell.
Ohio Mom
@hrprogressive: You left out fresh water, that’s also something being fought over without too much knowledgement.
Nukular Biskits
@Tony Jay:
It’s human nature to expect (demand?) simplistic explanations for everything.
Reality, however, is messy and “has a liberal bias”
Chris
@Nukular Biskits:
To be fair, it would do a lot of liberals some good to see domestic politics in a more black and white way.
Nukular Biskits
@Chris:
Can’t say as I disagree … but cue the “both sides” framing.
Urza
Assuming its not just about keeping Bibi in power. Shouldn’t the bleeting from the Israeli leaders talking about taking the land mean something to the world? Rhetorical I know cause most of the world don’t really care.
Chris
@Nukular Biskits:
“Both sides do it” is the failure mode of seeing the world in shades of gray.
Bill Arnold
Israeli settlers hold conference on resettlement in Gaza (Reuters, January 28, 2024)
Headline is accurate.
MomSense
It is such a depressing situation.
jayne
@New Deal democrat: I freely admit that I’m a cynic of the first water, but as I sit here watching Israel’s international reputation tank and antisemitism soar, I have to wonder if that isn’t what Hamas was after. It doesn’t take a mind reader to predict what Bibi’s response to an attack like this would be and, knowing that, one has to assume that Hamas considers Palestinian civilians to be just as expendable as Netanyahu’s administration always has. Israel’s winning the battle and losing the war. And as an extra special bonus, they’re losing it in ways that the far right Israeli faction can exploit. Which is kind of what Adam was saying anyway, only with added lack of faith in anyone’s motivations I guess.
Chris
@jayne:
Antisemitism had been spiking for a while, though, and mostly not because of the work of the Palestinian activist set. Hamas didn’t have to do anything on that front.
Honestly, I think Hamas’ goal was to derail any hopes of normalization between Israel and countries like Saudi Arabia. Which, well, if nothing else, that definitely did happen.
Geminid
@Chris: Actually, it looks to me like Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have survived intact thus far. Same with the bigger European countries like France, Germany and the UK. All those countries have decried the excessive loss of civilian lives, but they still don’t push for an immediate and permanent ceasefire. Rather, they call for a “sustainable” ceasefire along the lines CIA Director Burns, his Israeli and Egyptian counterparts, and Qatar’s Prime Minister discussed today in Paris. This could change, but as of now Israel’s most important allies after the US have not broken with Israel.
Adam L Silverman
@Librarian: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@jayne: @Chris: Those were both goals of Hamas. As I wrote about back when I was doing updates in the first couple of weeks after 7 October.
Sally
This is just the saddest state of affaires. All the suffering, destruction and misery being caused by these men who have no regard for any, any of the people. I am reminded of something a Yemeni (poor farmer) gentleman said years ago just as that was was starting up. Paraphrasing as I can’t remember, that these men are going to start a war for no reason other than their own desire for power. We people are going to suffer and die, our towns and cities destroyed, our futures stolen, for their own self aggrandisement. That’s so true of any war I can think of. People with enough power and mental illness want to take more. Just more. Not because they believe they can rule more compassionately, build more schools and hospitals, and look after the inhabitants of that land, but just because they want more. And more is never enough.
I am afraid that this is looking like the start of the First World War, where all these wars might coalesce into one big war. There were all sorts of unexpected alliances then as there are now. Alliances of political convenience, certainly not of ideological congruence.
Freemark
Israel is the primary factor here. It has nearly all the power. Hamas is a product of Israel. Only Israel can decide if there is to be peace. The Israelis actually have security if they want it. That was shown over the last twenty years before the Oct. 7 attack. Most Israeli deaths from Palestinians happened around the settlements. Pretty much all the Palestinian deaths are in Palestinian areas. Pretty much all the Israeli deaths have been in Palestinian areas. If Israel deoccupied Palestinian areas the main drivers of Palestinian terrorism are gone. The Palestinians are at the point they can fight and die or not fight and die.
I am not saying that long-term peace wouldn’t be messy and difficult, but at this point only the Israelis can decide on peace, the Palestinians can’t. If every single Palestinian gave up and became a pacifist it would just mean the settlements would be expanded much faster.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Really appreciate your post today!
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: BTW, you didn’t address the ICJ ruling on the South Africa vs. Israel case. As I stated before, there is hypocrisy all around, given South Africa’s decided lack of censure for Russian behavior in Ukraine, but also Western governments in the reverse direction. To their credit, most European states affirmed the legitimacy of the ICJ, & the binding nature of its interim order calling on all parties to cease acts that might lead to genocide, though few called out Israel by name. The response from Australia & the UK were very weak, & that from the US & Canada tendentious to the point of being contemptible, & in stark contrast to their stances in the wake of similar ICJ rulings on Myanmar, Syria & Ukraine.
Furthermore, nearly a dozen Western governments, led by the US, immediately suspended funding to the UNWRA, the UN agency takes w/ delivering aid to Gaza, & the largest employer in the territory, all because Israel alleges that a dozen of its employees participated/supported the Oct. 7 atrocity. Given how thoroughly Hamas integrated Hamas has been in Gaza society, this is far from inconceivable. However, we still only have accusations from the unreliable Bibi government, even if true 12 employees represent 0.1% of the UNWRA work force, & the UNWRA has already fired the accused & launched an investigation. In the meantime, how is humanitarian aid supposed to go to Gazans if the UNWRA is defunded, all the while Western weapons & munitions continue to stream to Israel, in the wake of the ICJ interim ruling intended to mitigate a humanitarian disaster?!
Any just & fair rules based international order has to be based on international law, with institutions such as the ICJ being the adjudicator. Western hypocrisy here undermines the international order (such as it is) as much as intransigence or hypocrisy by the malevolent actors, spoilers, or Global South countries.
BTW, the ICJ chief judge on the case was a top lawyer at State under Hillary Clinton.
Geminid
@Freemark: This description of “settlement areas” is not clear. The Israelis killed on October 7 were living in the state of Israel, within the borders established in 1948. By this standard, Israel as a whole would need to be “deoccupied” to achieve your projected conditions for peace.
Or maybe you have your map mixed up, and are conflating tbe communities attacked on October 7 with the illegal settlements that have sprung up in the West Bank, over the Green Line.
Also, Hamas is not exactly a “product of Israel.” The organization’s growth was indeed fostered by successive Israeli governments, but Hamas itself is an indigenous movement that came out of the Muslim Brotherhood. That Islamic movement was active in Egypt and other Arab nations since the 1950s at least, mostly underground as opposition to the various governments.
Chas
Adam, you may have already done this. But if so i don’t recall it.
Could you please detail some of the alternative options to a 2-state solution that you think could have more chance of being effective in the long term?
Seems like pretty important info for us at this point in time!
And thanks again for your awesome posting.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Regarding UNWRA: former Knesset member Eina Wilf has been making the contrarian case against the UN relief organization, and argues that it has been an impediment to peace. On her Twitter account, Wilf links to her longer form efforts including including her book The War of Return. You might not find Ms. Wilf’s arguments persuasive, but she makes them very cogently.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: There is ending the UNWRA when the fighting ends & setting up an alternative structure to facilitate Gaza’s reconstruction, and there is defunding the organization that serves as the primary means of delivering humanitarian aid to Gazans during the current fighting, at a time the Gazans are in dire straits.
Any Western governments offering up an alternative path to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza? Did the plight of the Gazans enter their thoughts when they made the decision to suspend funding? (Not that the PRC, Russia, the Gulf States, India or others are doing much, either, other than cynically taking advantage to advance their geopolitical interest. They could choose to backfill the funding suspended by the select Western governments, if they really cared about the Gazans.)
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Western countries still want the aid to flow, just not through this unique, 75 year old NGO. Aid is delivered most places in the world without UNWRA being involved, and it can be delivered in Gaza without them too. If there is in fact a need to replace UNWRA, a new organization can keep most of the line workers and put them under new management.