Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’re not going back!

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Everybody saw this coming.

Please don’t feed the bears.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Democrats are back in array!

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

A consequence of cucumbers

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Bark louder, little dog.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Fuck that bum, let’s go Joe!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 712: The “Bipartisan” Senate Compromise Supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, & the Border Is DOA Before It Gets To the House

War for Ukraine Day 712: The “Bipartisan” Senate Compromise Supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, & the Border Is DOA Before It Gets To the House

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This will never make it to a cloture vote. Other than McConnell, Murkowski, Lankford, Graham, and Romney no GOP senator is going to support this.

Mitch McConnell, in the face of growing GOP opposition, pushes for action on national security package, which includes the bipartisan border deal.

“This is a humanitarian and security crisis of historic proportions,” he said. “And Senate Republicans have insisted — not just for months but for years — that this urgent crisis demanded action.”

“It is now time for Congress to take action on supplemental national security legislation that finally meets those challenges head on,” he said, adding; “Make no mistake, the gauntlet has been thrown and America needs to pick it up.”

And despite McConnell’s statement, he will not force them too. McConnell’s surrender will be out of sheer cowardice so they don’t have to take a tough vote that plays against Trump, the GOP base, and the conservative movement in an election year. We’ll have to see if Lankford actually support his own bill when it comes up for a vote in the Senate or if he pulls a Little Marco.

The House GOP Freedom Caucus is going to even kill the standalone Israel aid bill, which is amazing considering most of those folks are dispensational millennialists.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We discussed the enhancement of the veterans’ policy with the Prime Minister; Ukraine needs strength, fresh energy and leadership – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

5 February 2024 – 20:19

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is a working day in three of our regions. Dnipropetrovsk region, Kropyvnytskyi region, Cherkasy region. The enhancement of electronic warfare and bolstering of our air defense are among the main issues everywhere. Several important instructions have been given today in this regard.

Dnipro. It was a real pleasure to visit Synergy Lyceum. I thanked the teachers, talked to the students. An important mood – the mood of our future, our state.

Kropyvnytskyi. I held a security meeting on the situation in the region, and the content of the meeting also concerned the situation in other regions and in critical sectors of our economy. I instructed the head of the Ukrainian government to hold a separate meeting on Kirovohrad region – on all its issues. This includes ensuring a high-quality and stable water supply, the operation of uranium mines, and the protection of workers. The report is due in a week. I am grateful to everyone in Kropyvnytskyi and the region who provides assistance in building fortifications in the frontline areas, including Zaporizhzhia. We also discussed the economy: the state should support the restoration of Ukrainian production.

Cherkasy. I took part in a regional meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. The main issues, of course, concerned work and development in the region. The meeting was attended by the First Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Agrarian Policy. Representatives of regional business also took part in the Congress. This is one of the top priorities of our country today – to provide maximum opportunities for entrepreneurs to work for economic growth and job creation. Last year, we provided the basis for Ukraine’s economic stability. Our sea corridor is working, and more than 20 million tons of cargo have already been exported by sea. We have ensured protection for the energy sector, and this year’s winter and heating season are much more stable than last year. We also have agreements with our partners on long-term support for Ukraine and financial programs that increase our country’s confidence. We ended last year with economic growth of more than 5%. And this year should maintain the momentum. We need transparent, clean, legal relations between state institutions and business. We need business to operate in a clean, legal environment for the sake of preserving and creating as many jobs as possible. The resilience of our economy and the social resilience of Ukraine are elements of our national resilience in the war. I am grateful to everyone who works to ensure that Ukraine can withstand. I am grateful to every entrepreneur, every developer, all our people who have created a new industry in Ukraine, in particular, the drone industry, and who are creating a new powerful Ukrainian electronic warfare system, all our IT specialists who have become defenders. The government will provide maximum support for this effort. I thank everyone who fights for our country and people!

And one more thing.

This morning, we discussed with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal the enhancement of the policy of heroes – the policy of veterans. Steps that will resolve the existing problems in this area and instill confidence in our people. Steps of a reboot – and not only in this area. With all due respect to Mrs. Minister, this is a matter of management only. Ukraine needs strength, fresh energy and sufficient leadership in every sector. We must win this war. And we have to do the maximum this year, do even more than possible. Ukraine will win.

Glory to our people! 

Glory to Ukraine!

And thank you very much, Cherkasy region!

Here’s some analysis of the effects of not continuing to fund Ukraine:

 

Avdiivka:

This is the cost of the intransigence of the House GOP majority caucus and their allies in the Senate GOP minority:

Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast:

Kherson, Kherson Oblast:

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russia launched an attack against the southern city of Kherson around noon on Feb. 5, killing at least four residents and injuring one, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.

Two men, aged 45 and 50, were killed while sitting in a car, said Roman Mrochko, the head of the Kherson military administration.

Other killed victims reportedly included a woman and a 60-year-old man. The injured resident has been hospitalized.

Further details are being determined.

Since Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson and other regional settlements on the western bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022, Russia continues to heavily strike the area, regularly inflicting civilian casualties.

Somewhere in Russian occupied Ukraine:

Our team successfully rescued three families with four #children from an occupied area. Milana and Zhenia’s parents had to close their business after refusing #Russian passports, not complying with Russian business regulations, and declining to pay taxes to Russia. The family, including the kids, spent most days in the basement as Russian forces frequently bombarded their village with mortars. To cope with the stress,

Milana often turned up the volume of cartoons to block out the sound of explosions. Angela and her mother lived near a Russian anti-aircraft system. This led to frequent drone attacks over their home, with drones often being shot down or self-destructing nearby. Russian forces blamed these attacks on the #Ukrainian military. The occupation authorities also tried to force Marina,

Angela’s mother, to enroll her in a Russian school three times, but Angela consistently refused. Arsen’s older brother serves in the Ukrainian armed forces, which drew repeated Russian searches to their parents’ home. The first search was particularly harrowing, involving their yard being encircled by military vehicles and a sniper targeting their home. During these searches, Arsen’s father was intensively interrogated and checked for tattoos. Aliona,

Arsen’s mother, planned to flee the occupation twice but feared being turned back at checkpoints due to her elder son’s military service and potentially losing her younger child. Upon learning about @SaveukraineUs, she immediately reached out to our team for help.

It only took a few days for us to sort everything out and assist these families in escaping the occupied area. They are now in a safe place. After they have some time to recover from their ordeal, they plan to start rebuilding their lives.

P.S. We’ve changed the names in this story to protect the individuals’ safety.

#RescueMission #SaveUkraine

Chasiv Yar:

The Russians are again trying to seize the city of Chasiv Yar, which is located immediately west of Bakhmut. The front line approached Chasiv Yar to a distance of 5-7 km. Russian artillery is pounding the city. The 93rd Brigade “Holodny Yar” is holding the line here, challenging the enemy in Bohdanivka.

Lysychansk, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

HIMARS strike on hospitality venue “Adriatika” in occupied Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast on 3 February “destroyed dozens of “LPR” officials, including emergency services Minister Aleksey Potelshenko, public prosecutors, policemen, local deputies and defectors”.

According to Russian sources, the strike was adjusted by someone present at the venue or nearby, knowing the positions of the attendees.

The information about the strike emerged on Russian news channels with the context that it was a random civilian bakery that was attacked. Official news present this as a strike against civilians, however, leaks from smaller Russian channels reveal that it was a congregation of big local names that was targeted. A birthday party was being held there. However, it is claimed that some civilians, perhaps relatives of the officials, were also casualties of this strike.

There are names of the targets floating about but these are not confirmed. Ukraine did not take responsibility for this strike. Claims that HIMARS missiles were used come from the Russian side.

t.me/zimenkin/1771

t.me/yulia_andrienk

t.me/kazansky2017/1

Krynky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

The Netherlands is, fortunately, standing up:

+6 F-16 jets from the Netherlands for Ukraine.

Minister of Defense of the Netherlands @DefensieMin announced that 🇳🇱 is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to 🇺🇦.
The total number of F-16s to be delivered is 24.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. Ukraine highly appreciates your assistance in our fight against russian evil.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱 @Defensie

 

The Kyiv Independent has details:

The Netherlands is preparing to send Ukraine an additional six U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Feb. 5.

This brings the total number of jets pledged to Ukraine by the Netherlands to 24.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Dec. 22 that the Netherlands was preparing the initial batch of 18 F-16s for delivery to Ukraine. There have been no updates on the status of those 18 jets since then.

Ollongren didn’t provide any details on the delivery schedule.

“Ukraine’s aerial superiority is essential for countering Russian aggression,” Ollongren said on X (formerly Twitter).

In a separate announcement, the Dutch Defense Ministry explained that the six additional jets became available for Ukraine since an agreement to sell these planes to the Draken International company was canceled.

The Netherlands has another 18 F-16 aircraft in its arsenal, but it is giving them all for an F-16 training center in Romania. The Dutch Air Force is transitioning to more advanced F-35 fighter jets.

Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have also pledged to provide Ukraine with some of its F-16 jets. The exact number of the jets to be delivered has not yet been announced.

In mid-August 2023, Denmark pledged to give Ukraine 19 F-16s, with the first batch of six aircraft expected to be delivered in spring 2024 and the rest by 2025.

Belgium’s defense minister has promised several jets, which would likely arrive in 2025. According to Norwegian broadcaster NRK, Norway plans to send between five and 10 planes.

Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine will likely have at least some F-16s operational in late spring or early summer.

Danish and Dutch officials have said the delivery schedule depends on the readiness of Ukraine’s infrastructure and pilots, among other factors.

Ukrainian pilots and technicians continue their training on F-16s in several European countries and the U.S., with the latter expected to complete later in 2024.

The Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisitions, Logistics, and Technology has announced that the US will make its production goals for 155mm shells:

Doug Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology confirms that the United States is still on track for 70,000-80,000 155mm shells per month by the end of 2024/start of 2025. This is the max rate, pending appropriation of $3.1 billion in additional funding, which is needed to hit 100,000/month by the end of 2025.

This is good news. It would be great news if there was a Ukraine supplemental allowing the US government to either provide these shells to Ukraine or to provide Ukraine the money as aid so the Ukrainians could then buy them. Until/unless legislation that provides new authorization for and aid to Ukraine passes and signed into laws, these shells are going to be inventoried and then stored somewhere in the US.

Finland:

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

The Finnish Nammo Lapua’s ammunition factory will increase production fivefold in 2024 due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Finnish public broadcaster YLE reported on Feb. 4, citing the regional director of the factory, Ilkka Heikkila.

The increase in production at the factory in southwestern Finland’s city of Sastamala, which manufactures artillery shell casings, is related to the war in Ukraine, as artillery shells play a key role in Finland’s aid to Ukraine.

Finland is a key partner of Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression. The Finnish Defense Ministry announced on Dec. 21, 2023, military aid amounting to 106 million euros ($114 million).

According to the ministry, Finland has delivered 1.6 billion euros ($1.72 billion) worth of military aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.

The Nammo factory has applied to participate in the EU’s ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) project, aiming to increase the EU ammunition and missile production to tackle Ukraine’s shortages.

Hungary:

Now we wait to see if the EU yanks the leash.

Speaking of Brussels:

From The Insider:

Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made coordinate-measuring machines, a high-tech machine tool critical in the production of the Kremlin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The sanctions-busting operation has become a family business. Labin’s younger son runs the Moscow-based middleman that delivers his father’s shipments to end users in Russia, while his elder son pitches in by organizing pro-Kremlin protests across Europe. Despite the Labin family’s unabashed efforts to aid the Russian military-industrial complex, none of them has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list.

In October, The Insider revealed how gaps in the complex web of Western sanctions policies have allowed Russia to continue procuring many of the foreign-made tools and components necessary for the production of its hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile, one of the “wonder weapons” unveiled by Vladimir Putin during an infamous 2018 speech that included computer generated graphics showing Russian warheads flying towards the United States. That particular sanctions-busting scheme relied on loopholes and exceptions that make it possible for European companies to continue doing business with key players in the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex — and to do so without formally violating any regulations. However, not all of the methods Moscow uses to keep its war machine running fall “within the parameters of the law.”

One of the firms mentioned in The Insider’s October report was the Moscow-based Sonatek LLC (ООО «Сонатек»), which imports high precision machine tools from a range of European companies hailing from Italy (Tomelleri Engineering), Germany (MESSTECHNIK GMBH) and the United Kingdom (Aberlink). Russia has yet to establish a suitable import substitution alternative for coordinate-measuring machines, making the Russian military-industrial complex heavily reliant on imported products sourced through Sonatek. Although Russian government defense contracts have been classified in recent years, The Insider has obtained information indicating that Sonatek provided supply and maintenance services to a minimum of 18 Russian defense companies in 2022.

After The Insider’s October report was published, several of the European shipping companies that previously offered their services to Sonatek distanced themselves from the Moscow middleman. Among them was Baltic Shipping Agency LTD, a Poland-based firm that was adamant about its desire not to take part in “illegal activities aimed at circumventing sanctions.” However, the Baltic Shipping Agency did indeed exploit gaps in sanctions legislation in order to deliver coordinate-measuring machines to a key cog in the Russian war machine.

But the scheme discovered by The Insider last year turned out not to have been Sonatek’s only path around Western sanctions. Months before that report was released, a GRU officer named Viktor Labin was already operating on the ground in Brussels, routing European technology to the Russian reseller via a shell company registered in Turkey. Not coincidentally, that GRU officer is the father of Sonatek’s owner and CEO, the 35-year-old Ruslan Labin.

In his correspondence with The Insider, Ruslan Labin did not deny that Sonatek LLC is indeed affiliated with the “18 Russian defense companies” in question, responding that, “These are our customers, we used to supply them with something [and] maybe we’re supplying them now.”

When asked directly whether he and his family members are employees of Russia’s Defense Ministry, he explained, “My father is a businessman, but my brother and I never served in the army” — followed by a smiling emoticon.

Labin’s sons, Roman Labin and the aforementioned Sonatek CEO Ruslan Labin, are listed as directors on Groupe d’Investissement Financier official documents.

Groupe d’Investissement Financier is headquartered at Avenue de la Ferme Rose, 7, a short drive south from the Brussels city center. It was here that The Insider met with Viktor Labin, who claimed that, “after the sanctions” were imposed on Russian companies following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the elder Labin stopped making deliveries to his son’s firm in Moscow.

However, records show that Groupe d’Investissement Financier has done extensive business with Sonatek, delivering machines and equipment to the Russian firm’s Moscow address. It was only in April 2023 that Viktor Labin’s Belgian entity began processing its deliveries to Sonatek through a Turkish shell company with a similar name: GROUPE D’INVESTISSEMENT FINANCIER OSBORNE. (Turkey has become a popular transshipment point for sanctioned goods being smuggled to Russian end users. As The Insider recently revealed, Taiwanese machine tools have also made their way to Russian arms manufacturers via this route).

Much, much more including images of documents at the link!

Rajan Menon, the Director of the Grand Strategy Program at the Saltzman Institute at Columbia has a detailed assessment of the various other analyses and assessments about how the Ukrainians are doing. It is an excellent reality check. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App. Pay particular attention to tweet #13!

2/ ONE: Among the reasons Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed was the failure to concentrate the bulk of its forces at one point on the southern front rather than dispersing them. But the front is 600 miles long & Russia, with a far bigger army, had massed for attack at various 
3/ points along it. Had Ukraine not deployed forces to defend those other points, the Russians would have broken through—and kept going. 
4/ TWO: Russian defensive lines are so formidable that Ukraine can never break through. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t, but the so-called Surovikin fortifications do not extend along the entire front and in Kherson, such defenses as do exist, are far less extensive. Hence the 
5/ significance of UKR’s Krynky bridgehead on the RUS-held bank of the Dnipro in Kherson.

THREE: Drones have been part of the war since the get-go and there’s been no big change in their role. In fact, recent changes in drone tech. have dramatically changed the cost exchange 

6/ ratio, with cheap drones demolishing multi-million dollar tanks as well as IFVs that cost $ 400K and more. Indeed, but for drones, especially the FPV type, the Ukrainian foothold at Krynky, on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, would have been overrun long ago because 
7/ it’s held by a small number of marines who have used drones to destroy lots of attacking armor. And this has happened not only in Krynky but also in other places, such as Avdiivka. Russia has made major investments in drones in recent months—something that a drone operator 
8/ explained to me during a discussion in Izyum. Then of course there’s the emergence of sea drones, which we’ve seen in action in the Black Sea, including in the last few days.

Indeed, among UKR’s military weaknesses is the lack of sufficient drones, especially FPV variants. 

9/ The majority of the drones its troops use are still supplied by volunteers who raise money by seeking donations.

FOUR: Russian countermeasures have robbed Western missiles of much of their effectiveness. Russia has indeed adapted & improved its ECM, but Ukraine continues 

10/ to use western missiles, notably HIMARS and Storm Shadow, with devastating effect, as witness last week’s attack on attack on the Russian airbase at Belbek that killed ~11 officers, including likely a general, and damaged three warplanes. 
11/ The Russian Black Sea Fleet has partly been moved to eastern Crimea, & even to Novorossiisk, precisely because of Ukraine’s devastating missile attacks. 
12/Re ATACMS; among the egs. of Ukraine’s use of it was an attack in October on Berdiansk, destroying several military helicopters, an ammunition storage site, and an air defense system. Russia claims to have intercepted ATACMs twice but I know of no independent verification. 
13/Ultimately, Ukraine’s military prospects hinge less on the points I’ve flagged for discussion here and much more on whether US military aid continues and whether Ukraine can mobilize and train ~500k additional soldiers—and whether Europe steps up far more than it has. 
14/14 A final, unrelated, point: Western military experts are telling Ukraine to avoid an offensive and to switch to defense. Ukraine’s generals and military experts KNOW this, esp given the uncertainties re US military aid and the latter have written about “active defense.” 

A final thought for tonight:

General observation as the world lurches back towards a reality of war and competition.

Confronting adversaries like Russia, Iran, or the PRC successfully cannot be done without cost. It cannot be done if all uncomfortable choices are avoided. If the free world does not summon up the political cohesion, national resolve, moral clarity, and industrial might required to oppose these powers – it will lose. The side of right is not preordained to be victorious and thus far we are deficient in every category.

Our saving grace is that, unlike our totalitarian opponents, our leadership can be replaced by the popular will of a citizenry awakened to the dangers it faces.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

34Comments

  2. 2.

    Citizen Alan

    I am so tired of living in a world where it seems evil always wins. And I’m so very, very tired of sharing a country with 80 million people who I don’t recognize as human and who have seemingly limitless power to ruin this nation.

  3. 3.

    hrprogressive

    There are zero “hard to understand domestic political reasons” why the US is about to give up on helping Ukraine. Zero.

    The Fascist Republican Party wants Russia and the broader Global Fascist Movement, of which they are a part of, to win, and destroy liberal democracy worldwide.

    That’s it. That’s the entire reason.

    That commentators around the world still seem to offer up perplexed-sounding tweets like the one embedded above, after they have been pretty open and honest about what they want, is beyond baffling to me.

  4. 4.

    Bill Arnold

    Curve ball by the (very Trumpy) CBP union:
    As conservatives balk, U.S. Border Patrol union endorses Senate immigration deal – The National Border Patrol Council, which endorsed Donald Trump for president in 2020, said the new bipartisan bill “will drop illegal border crossings nationwide.” (Feb. 5, 2024, Julie Tsirkin)

    “While not perfect, the Border Act of 2024 is a step in the right direction and is far better than the current status quo,” Brandon Judd, president of the council, said in the statement. “This is why the National Border Patrol Council endorses this bill and hopes for its quick passage.”

  5. 5.

    Freemark

    Republicans are known traitors. Nixon, Reagan, and Trump all literal traitors. The Republican congress may not meet the literal definition of traitors but they so undermine the US positions that they should be referred to as that. If they weren’t traitors they would fund Ukraine just so our current and potential Asian allies would see that the US is a reliable ally. Now of course they may decide it’s better to appease China.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Freemark: The reactionaries’ argument (such as it is) is that the US must concentrate its scarce resources on confronting the PRC, & not “waste” it on a stalemate in Ukraine. Of course, most of them are also supportive of shooting precious Tomahawks (that might be more relevant to a Taiwan scenario than 155 mm howitzer rounds & 120 mm mortar shells ever could be) to hit targets all over the ME, to no strategic avail. Most of them are also supportive of a conventional war against Iran, the least negative consequence of which will be the US blowing through its entire stock of PGMs.

    The only consistent motivation is advancing the cause of nativist reactionary authoritarianism. Hanging Ukraine out to dry, giving Putin pass after pass, war w/ Iran, Cold (or Hot) War w/ the PRC, “Fortress America” along the southern border, all create conditions to advance toward that goal.

  10. 10.

    Lyrebird

    @YY_Sima Qian: The only consistent motivation is advancing the cause of nativist reactionary authoritarianism.

    Hi YY, I don’t always see things the way you do ,  but ^this 100%.

    Adam recently reposted that listing, was it from Tendar? of states that benefit from arms manufacture to replace the older stuff being sent to Ukraine.  PA and OH are definitely on there.  I should make a screenshot.  Wish we could airdrop pamphlets into OH, or airdrop a clue into some of the cult member’s heads, but no.

  13. 13.

    Andrya

    I’ve got a last-ditch, desperate idea- the Republicans don’t really want to fix the border (even on their terms, which I abhor) because they want to blame it on Biden.  They’ve now made it clear they don’t care about Israel.  My thought is that there is still one thing, and only one thing, that they appear to really care about- upper bracket tax cuts.

    Would there be any hope that if they were offered a bipartisan bill with just two items- aid to Ukraine plus upper bracket tax cuts- they might make a deal?

  15. 15.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    For what it’s worth I wrote our congresscritter, Val Hoyle (D-4th Dist. OR) and gave her a polite earful about getting more Democrats out in front of cameras to counter the crazy, that while we (4 D in our house) support Israel we do not support the right wing government of Israel nor do we support anything other than a two state solution. We also support Ukraine and need more Democrats out in front of cameras calling out the Republicans as enablers of Putin, linking Carlson’s visit there as conservative outreach to Ruzzia.

    Thank you, Adam! And fuck you all of you traitorous Republican monsters, I hope your party get its ass handed to itself this fall.

  16. 16.

    Alison Rose

    @Andrya: No.

    They don’t want to help Ukraine. You could have a bill saying “All taxes for anyone making over half a million are gone forever, no single person from Central America will ever be allowed in the country again, and all trans people will be sent to live on Guam” and if there’s Ukraine aid in it too, they’ll vote no.

    They support russia. They do not support Ukraine and never will. They are perfectly fine with Ukraine being decimated. Nothing will change their minds.

  17. 17.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @MisterForkbeard: Yes. I’m a long termer at Kos, and that site has some struggles now, but I’ve always like the “Recommend” button to acknowledge support without needing to add often inconsequential text.

  18. 18.

    hells littlest angel

    I’m hoping Winston Churchill was right about this:

     

    “Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else.”

  19. 19.

    topclimber

    It is hard not to give into the fear and loathing, but let’s see how the Senate vote plays out. Many GOP Senators are not up for re-election until 2026 or 2028, and they must know that Trump will not be the same force then that he is now, if only as his brain continues to erode.

    Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Cassidy of La. are in Trump’s sh-house already, having voted to convict TFG for 1/6. Lankford is stuck being the bill’s sponsor so that’s five of the 10 needed. If Mitch actually comes through and also Graham, we are down to three.

    If the passes Senate this bill, it may be DOA in the House, but perhaps not for long. The refusal to even consider a bill by the razor thin GOP majority seems to make a discharge petition look more attractive to the pro-Ukraine majority in the House.

    Let’s not forget that just a few weeks ago the doom prophecy was that the EU would not get past Orban’s veto of aid to Ukraine. $47 billion in economic aid later, that proved the wrong prediction.

    For all his bible-beating, Speaker Johnson doesn’t seem to recall that Dead on Arrival can turn into miraculous Resurrection.

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    I get e-mail…

    WCK conducts airdrop of food in Gaza

    WCK conducted an airdrop of 500 pallets of food into northern Gaza. José Andrés, WCK’s founder and Chief Feeding Officer, joined the Jordanian Royal Air Force and the Royal Netherlands Air Force as part of the international effort to complete our first delivery of this kind. Our teams have provided more than 32 million meals in Gaza since first responding to the escalating conflict in the region.

    Good, good.

    No matter what does or does not happen in the Senate and House in coming days and weeks, the world keeps revolving and good people are still doing the work to make the world a better place.

    Let’s do what we can to join the helpers.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: José Andrés has been doing great work! But it is also a sad illustration of the situation in Gaza that the aid cannot just be trucked in. Israel needs to allow far more aid to enter the Strip via land. What can be air dropped is a rounding error of the actual need.

  22. 22.

    Timill

    Until/unless legislation that provides new authorization for and aid to Ukraine passes and signed into laws, these shells are going to be inventoried and then stored somewhere in the US.

    We should store them at our European warehouses in case of need.

    The ones in West Ukraine, that is…

  23. 23.

    Carlo Graziani

    And, there you have it. Per the NYT (gift link)

    President Biden vowed on Monday to veto a House Republican bill that would provide $17.6 billion in aid to Israel, calling it a “cynical political maneuver” intended to hurt the chances of passage for broader legislation that would provide money for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the U.S. border.

    “The administration strongly opposes this ploy, which does nothing to secure the border, does nothing to help the people of Ukraine defend themselves against Putin’s aggression, fails to support the security of American synagogues, mosques and vulnerable places of worship, and denies humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, the majority of whom are women and children,” the White House’s Office of Management and Budget said in a statement.

    “See your pious bullshit justification, and raise you a dose of real-world consequence,” in other words.

    Scalise and the rest of that clown show do not get the last word on this, no matter how much they may hope that chanting “DOA…DOA…” means that aid to Ukraine is dead. It only means that they hope the big, scary bill won’t return and force them to revolt against their own caucus only to discover, yet again, that they are a reviled minority.

    It’s going to get stuffed right back in their ugly faces, and they are going to have to choose between either choking down the shit sandwich of the Century, or kneecapping their BFF Speaker to protect their “credibility” with Trump.

    I don’t like popcorn, but I’ll get some arancini ready.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Mick Ryan has a new article in Foreign Affairs:

    Russia’s Adaptation Advantage
    Early in the War, Moscow Struggled to Shift Gears—but Now It’s Outlearning Kyiv

    By Mick Ryan
    February 5, 2024

    Throughout the war in Ukraine, Kyiv and Moscow have waged an adaptation battle, trying to learn and improve their military effectiveness. In the early stages of the invasion, Ukraine had the advantage. Empowered by a rapid influx of Western weapons, motivated by the existential threat posed by Russia’s aggression, and well prepared for the attack, Kyiv was able to develop new ways of fighting in remarkably short order. Russia, in contrast, fumbled: a big, arrogant, and lumbering bear, overconfident of a rapid victory. The institutional shock of Russia’s lack of success, in turn, slowed its ability to learn and adapt.

    But after two years of war, the adaptation battle has changed. The quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has closed. Ukraine still has an innovative and bottom-up military culture, which allows it to quickly introduce new battlefield technologies and tactics. But it can struggle to make sure that those lessons are systematized and spread throughout the entire armed forces. Russia, on the other hand, is slower to learn from the bottom up because of a reluctance to report failure and a more centralized command philosophy. Yet when Russia does finally learn something, it is able to systematize it across the military and through its large defense industry.

    These differences are reflected in the ways the two states innovate. Ukraine is better at tactical adaptation: learning and improving on the battlefield. Russia is superior at strategic adaptation, or learning and adaptation that affects national and military policymaking, such as how states use their resources. Both forms of adaptation are important. But it is the latter type that is most crucial to winning wars.

    The longer this war lasts, the better Russia will get at learning, adapting, and building a more effective, modern fighting force. Slowly but surely, Moscow will absorb new ideas from the battlefield and rearrange its tactics accordingly. Its strategic adaptation already helped it fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, and over the last few months it has helped Russian troops take more territory from Kyiv. Ultimately, if Russia’s edge in strategic adaptation persists without an appropriate Western response, the worst that can happen in this war is not stalemate. It is a Ukrainian defeat.

    …

    While the authors are typically not responsible for the titles. I think he overstates the efficacy of Russian strategic adaptation. Just at the extraordinary losses that the Russian military suffered during the Pyrrhic victories of Severodonetsk & Bakhmut, as well as the current effort to capture Avdiivka, all no strategic gain. However, it is a good reminder that the Russians are capable of learning & adapting, too.

    At the end of the day, what will make the greatest difference is not ay Russian adaptation, but the possibility of fading Western support. To extent that the Russian Army is making incremental gains around Avdiivka in the past few days, it appears to be the result of the Ukrainian front line units being starved of artillery support.

  25. 25.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Agree completely. The sense I get of the argument is of straight-line extrapolation based on a couple of data points. Where is the confirmatory evidence that a learning culture that does not punish sensible risk-taking in the event of failure is now in existence, let alone flourishing, in the RuAF? How, exactly has this miracle of immaculate innovativeness taken place? Lazy analysis.

    Also, agree on to total futility of the Russian drive on Avdiivka, a flyspeck suburb of Donetsk affording no strategic consequence worth the colossal effort committed there by the Russians. Another entirely symbolic objective whose eventual attainment would boot the Russians nothing in exchange for the appalling casualties that they paid for it.

  26. 26.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Alison Rose:

    This.

    They are Quislings. Collaborators. They have sold us out. They are Fifth Columnists who intend to strangle our Democracy and install a thuggish, blood-drunk society run by pigshit-ignorant neoconfederate Planter-aristocrat/robber-barons.

    They are trying to steal all the marbles. They will not settle for you offering them something, because they plan to steal everything.

    And I am deathly afraid we will let them.

  27. 27.

    Jay

    A couple of days ago, I was reading a story, (I don’t know where),

    2 Ukrainian soldiers were cut off, trapped waist deep in a flooded basement, for 41 days, surrounded by Orcs, but staving them off.

    The Ukrainian’s sent in a strike to rescue them, when their drone teams noticed that Orc bodies kept piling up on all 4 sides of the ruined house.

    When they were rescued, all they wanted was a smoke, water, coffee and a cell phone.

  29. 29.

    Peke Daddy

    @Andrya: First, they will insist the Trump cuts be made permanent. Then, even more sugar poured on the .1%. All paid for by slashing entitlements. Then, they still won’t take it because denying Biden a win increases the chances they win.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: The Russians adapting in so far as they are no longer doing the same things are they did in Spring 2022 wile on offense, & they had responded to the prospect of a Ukrainian summer offensive in 2023 by constructing defense in depth in Zaporozhzhia. However, these are not innovations, but the bare minimum of military competence. The Russians have also learned from the Ukrainians in terms of mass deployment of FPV drones & loitering munitions, as well as standing up an industry to mass produce them. Ukrainian & Western analysts’ account show that Russian drones & EW are making life difficult for the Ukrainian Army, but it is only having an impact at the tactical level. All of Russia’s demonstrated adaptations have only gotten them to a stalemate.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    and on the bright side, in the last prisoner exchange, Ukraine vetted whom was going back, and returned to ruZZia all the murderers, cannibals and rapists that ruZZia had drafted out of their prisons.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Mitch McConnell has recommended to his caucus that they vote “No” on the cloture for the Senate deal:

    Andrew Desiderio
    @AndrewDesiderio

    NEWS — McConnell recommended to GOP senators behind closed doors that they BLOCK the border bill on Wednesday, per multiple sources, bc it’s clear that most Republicans are preparing to vote no — either because they oppose the bill or want more time. w/ @bresreports @JakeSherman

    There you have it. The modern GOP will not go against Trump on anything.

  34. 34.

    Chris Johnson

    @Carlo Graziani: This.

    You can’t just take the ‘Freedom Caucus’ saying ‘this will definitely happen!’ at face value. Next thing you’ll be believing Tim Pool, or Donald Trump, or Pravda, I mean RT.

    But I repeat myself, over and over.

    Maybe if they’re that dedicated to ‘WELP! It’s over! We declare it’s over!’ it’s actually a good sign. Wouldn’t be the first time Johnson sided with the Democrats to get stuff done.

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