(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The death toll from Russia’s strike on civilian targets in Odesa yesterday continues to go up.
Serhyi, 10 years old
Zlata, 8 years old
Liza, 7 months old
Oleh Kravets
Tetiana KravetsRussian drone attack killed an entire family, shattering the lives of dozens. The death toll now stands at 12 people, including 5 children. pic.twitter.com/nZvtPfQbu7
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 3, 2024
Heart-wrenching news from Odesa: military couple Oleh and Tetiana Kravets and their 7-month-old daughter Lisa found dead, 9-year-old Serhiy and 8-year-old Zlata still missing. Oleh and Tetiana met during their service. Oleh’s brother was killed in action in 2014, leaving him the only son💔
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
All leaders, all international organizations must respond firmly to Russia’s actions – address by the President of Ukraine
3 March 2024 – 21:15
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, rescue operations continued throughout the day in Odesa, at the site of the “Shahed” hitting the house.
The bodies of children were taken out of the rubble. As of now, twelve people have been reported dead, including five children. My condolences to the families and friends.
Five people were rescued. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine, the police, psychologists, and utility workers were all on the scene. I am grateful to all the people who helped.
Today, Russian murderers struck the town of Kurakhove in Donetsk region. With a guided aerial bomb that hit the roof of one of the houses. Without any other purpose than terror. At least 16 people were wounded, all of them are being provided with the necessary assistance.
And these are just two such strikes.
In total, since the beginning of this week alone, Russian terrorists have already used nearly 400 guided aerial bombs, more than 50 “Shahed” drones and more than 40 missiles.
No country in Europe could have withstood such pressure and evil alone. And that is why it is important that we all stand together now – everyone who values life and who does not want this terror to reach other nations.
All leaders and international organizations must respond to Russia’s actions. And the response must be tough. Putin does not want any peace – he only wants war and death. He does not care whom he kills. The main goal is to destroy. First, Ukraine and Ukrainians. And then you, dear partners.
That is why it is a matter of survival, and not only for Ukraine, that the world reacts to Russian evil and exerts pressure, and hits back.
This week alone, we managed to shoot down seven Russian military aircraft. The very ones that drop these bombs and kill.
Since the beginning of February, Russia has lost 15 military aircraft. This is the proper dynamics of their losses.
And the more capabilities we have to shoot down Russian aircraft, the farther we destroy Russian logistics in our occupied territory, the more Ukrainian lives will be saved.
This war must become hopeless for Russia, for the terrorists. And they must feel to the fullest extent possible that there is a force that destroys those who want to destroy life.
We are capable of providing this. Each partner knows what is needed.
The key is the political will to implement everything. To provide exactly the level of supply that will help.
If this does not happen, it will become one of the most disgraceful pages in history – if America or Europe are defeated by Iranian “Shahed” drones or Russian fighter jets. Russian evil should not be encouraged by weak decisions, delays in deliveries, or hesitation.
The joint success of everyone in the world who values life should be tangible.
We went through the winter, we preserved the energy sector and prevented blackouts. Russia’s energy terror failed.
We continue to restore security at sea, and our maritime exports are operational.
We can shoot down more Russian military aircraft and destroy even more Russian logistics in our occupied territory. The only question is the appropriate weapons that our partners have and can provide to Ukraine.
Despite the significant shortage of artillery, our heroic warriors are holding out against the onslaughts and defending their positions. It is extremely difficult. These are losses. This is pain. We are waiting for vital supplies, waiting specifically for an American decision. The support is crucially needed.
We must finally find a solution to the situation on the Polish border, which has gone beyond both economics and morality long ago.
It is simply impossible to explain how the hardships of a bleeding country can be used in domestic political struggles.
However, we will pull through this too. I am confident that Ukraine is able to withstand, achieve its goals and defeat Russian terror. Together we can ensure this.
Glory to all who fight and work for the sake of life! Glory to all who stand with Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
The reason:
The happy moment of the reunion.
📹: https://t.co/YKMncy6toy pic.twitter.com/bmkpe3hqfu
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 3, 2024
I finally have a chance to write a bit about The New York Times‘ reporting on Ukrainian-American intelligence cooperation. Overall, I’m not quite sure what to make of it. There is information in the reporting that, if accurate, should never have been reported. Such as the revelations about the secret Ukrainian intelligence sites along the border with Russia. If the Russians didn’t know about them and weren’t looking for them before the article was published, then they are now! Other parts, such as the risk aversion and strategic hesitancy of the Obama and Biden administrations do not surprise me at all. Another major new piece of information, that the Ukrainians provided the US intelligence community significant information regarding Russian interference in the 2016 election is important. But not in the way that the reporters may think. If the Ukrainians provided this intelligence and informational bounty to the US intelligence community it demonstrates just how broken American counterintelligence is. Specifically in the ensure the bad actors within the US cannot continue to operate. If we had functioning counterintelligence then we should have seen the DOJ’s national security section actually undertake proper prosecutions of the Americans involved. That did not and has not happened.
I also think the very real Ukrainian fears that the US will abandon them are accurate and well founded.
The question that some Ukrainian intelligence officers are now asking their American counterparts — as Republicans in the House weigh whether to cut off billions of dollars in aid — is whether the C.I.A. will abandon them. “It happened in Afghanistan before and now it’s going to happen in Ukraine,” a senior Ukrainian officer said.
Referring to Mr. Burns’s visit to Kyiv last week, a C.I.A. official said, “We have demonstrated a clear commitment to Ukraine over many years and this visit was another strong signal that the U.S. commitment will continue.”
Agency officials can say whatever they want. They don’t control the House of Representatives, they aren’t the Biden administration, which clearly does not have a legislative strategy to get aid for Ukraine funded, and they cannot operate outside of the risk aversion of the current administration. This risk aversion has been carried over from the Obama administration to the Biden administration:
Mr. Brennan returned to Washington, where advisers to President Barack Obama were deeply concerned about provoking Moscow. The White House crafted secret rules that infuriated the Ukrainians and that some inside the C.I.A. thought of as handcuffs. The rules barred intelligence agencies from providing any support to Ukraine that could be “reasonably expected” to have lethal consequences.
The result was a delicate balancing act. The C.I.A. was supposed to strengthen Ukraine’s intelligence agencies without provoking the Russians. The red lines were never precisely clear, which created a persistent tension in the partnership.
It can often take years for the C.I.A. to develop enough trust in a foreign agency to begin conducting joint operations. With the Ukrainians it had taken less than six months. The new partnership started producing so much raw intelligence about Russia that it had to be shipped to Langley for processing.
But the C.I.A. did have red lines. It wouldn’t help the Ukrainians conduct offensive lethal operations.
“We made a distinction between intelligence collection operations and things that go boom,” a former senior U.S. official said.
It was a distinction that grated on the Ukrainians.
First, General Kondratiuk was annoyed when the Americans refused to provide satellite images from inside Russia. Soon after, he requested C.I.A. assistance in planning a clandestine mission to send HUR commandos into Russia to plant explosive devices at train depots used by the Russian military. If the Russian military sought to take more Ukrainian territory, Ukrainians could detonate the explosives to slow the Russian advance.
When the station chief briefed his superiors, they “lost their minds,” as one former official put it. Mr. Brennan, the C.I.A. director, called General Kondratiuk to make certain that mission was canceled and that Ukraine abided by the red lines forbidding lethal operations.
General Kondratiuk canceled the mission, but he also took a different lesson. “Going forward, we worked to not have discussions about these things with your guys,” he said.
Some of Mr. Obama’s advisers wanted to shut the C.I.A. program down, but Mr. Brennan persuaded them that doing so would be self-defeating, given the relationship was starting to produce intelligence on the Russians as the C.I.A. was investigating Russian election meddling.
Mr. Brennan got on the phone with General Kondratiuk to again emphasize the red lines.
The general was upset. “This is our country,” he responded, according to a colleague. “It’s our war, and we’ve got to fight.”
The blowback from Washington cost General Kondratiuk his job. But Ukraine didn’t back down.
The risk aversion and strategic incoherence and malpractice of the Obama and Biden administrations, sandwiched around the fact that the Trump administration existed in significant part because the US intelligence community is very bad out counterintelligence and despite the Ukrainians giving them everything they needed to deal with the Americans aiding and abetting the Russians – read that as betraying the US – in their ongoing election interference and political warfare helped set the conditions for what the Ukrainians are dealing with now. A Republican Party that has embraced isolationism and Putin combined with Democratic strategic incoherence and risk aversion. If Ukraine loses it will not because of decisions made in Kyiv or lack of courage and resiliency by the Ukrainians. It will be because of what goes on in Washington, DC.
Pax Americana (aka 'The Long Peace') is coming to an end.
And America is voluntarily losing its status as a superpower.
I'll be happy to end up being wrong.
The world is not going to like what comes next.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 3, 2024
Particularly hilarious is the fact that Putin kept the whole national wealth fund intact during the Covid crisis while the Western nations preferred to give money to furloughed individuals. There were calls to unlock the money and help Russians stuck at home.
But he kept the… https://t.co/FyA39nLpp6
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 3, 2024
Particularly hilarious is the fact that Putin kept the whole national wealth fund intact during the Covid crisis while the Western nations preferred to give money to furloughed individuals. There were calls to unlock the money and help Russians stuck at home.
But he kept the money because he knew he was going to invade Ukraine, even in 2020.
Unfortunately, the US is unlikely to be able to get off its ass.
Speaking of counterintelligence threats that have been allowed to operate unimpeded, David Sacks got into a battle of wits without any actual ammunition.
Geez, I wonder why nations in Central and Europe would want to join NATO as soon as they could.
It's not that they have lived through decades under the Kremlin’s totalitarian rule, saw what used to happen to Hungary in 1956, to Czechoslovakia in 1968, or to Poland in the 1980s,… pic.twitter.com/fn9ckmy6xX
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 3, 2024
Geez, I wonder why nations in Central and Europe would want to join NATO as soon as they could.
It’s not that they have lived through decades under the Kremlin’s totalitarian rule, saw what used to happen to Hungary in 1956, to Czechoslovakia in 1968, or to Poland in the 1980s, did not want that back, and ended up being wise enough to seek NATO membership before Moscow switched to “they are not real countries” and “we take what’s ours” again.
Ukraine and Georgia would like to have a word or two on the results of trying to appease the Kremlin with “neutrality”, “spheres of influence”, and “the acknowledgment of Russia’s historical role in the region”.
But hey, two arrogant moneybags who wouldn’t find Kyiv on a map know it better than us – it’s all a grand conspiracy against poor little Russia, and how dare you cavemen seek prosperity and safety in your own countries, you are only supposed to please the Kremlin’s megalomaniac imperial ambitions and all.
Hate to break it to you, but posting random irrelevant 'Look, I'm so smart, I have some numbers' charts doesn't prove your point.
It only shows that you have nothing of substance to say and that your propaganda is only targeted at those who are even more poorly informed than…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 3, 2024
South Africa has not sent their best.
More from Odesa:
Warning!! Warning!! Graphic Imagery!! Warning!! Warning!!
10 dead in Odesa following a Russian strike.
Emergency response workers found the body of a woman holding her 8-month-old infant in her arms.
She tried to cover the baby from rubble in her motherly embrace. pic.twitter.com/xfxsphEHmA
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 3, 2024
Following a recent assault on Odesa by a Russian suicide drone, 5 children lost their lives. To prevent such tragedies, Ukraine must have a strong air defense and the ability to conduct destructive deep strikes to deter russians. Verbal threats alone won't protect these children pic.twitter.com/dPJ4y9FyvG
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 3, 2024
ALL CLEAR!!
Odesa, Ukraine.
@ Kustovsky pic.twitter.com/3LYvMCehNO— Noah Brooks 📸 (@NoahBrooks99) March 3, 2024
Novomykhailivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
The occupiers continue to attack 🇺🇦 Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region, but after the assaults, their weapons turn into scrap metal. The cooperation of anti-tank missile systems and attack UAVs leaves no chance for invaders.
📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/MvtyT8asFX
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 3, 2024
Avdiivka:
Avdiivka was once a symbol of resilience, its murals a testament to the Ukrainian spirit. This vibrant display of hope, Russia has now erased.
🧵(1/5) pic.twitter.com/ePCL4G0d4p
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 3, 2024
(3/5) pic.twitter.com/LBEr89BBGl
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 3, 2024
(5/5) pic.twitter.com/1YZ1X93eFd
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 3, 2024
Ukrianian Marine Kriegsforscher has a long detailed assessment of Russia’s loses since the fall of Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.
February was a very hot month. After the retreat from Avdiivka Russian strategic assault in that area continued having the goal to reach the main defence line of UAF.
After more then 2 weeks they did in some areas.
But they’ve paid a price in the places they didn’t plan to🧵 pic.twitter.com/E5EBCqZqk8
— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) March 3, 2024
Those T-90M and BVM were destroyed (video was published today).25.02.24 UAF destroyed Russian T-62M zr.2022
Destroyed T-72B3M with a cage at the Northern direction and three abandoned tanks in the Southern direction.1) damaged and abandoned BMP-2. Northern direction;2) BMP-1/2 damaged and abandoned. Southern direction;
3) destroyed BMP-2. Northern direction;
4) destroyed BMP-1 near abandoned Ukrainian T-64BV. Southern direction.
27.02.24
1) Destroyed MTLB near Severne. It was destroyed on November but only now appeared;2) Destroyed MTLB. 22.02.24
3) In a day BMP-1 near MTLB appeared (and then 2 tanks from the beginning) and was cooked by FPV.
24.02.24
Damaged and abandoned Russian tank near Severne.Damaged and abandoned Russian column: 3 BMPs and one T-80BV.
BMP-2 near Severne.
1-2) Destroyed BMP-2 (the crew survived and retreated). Was hit by FPV and burned;3) Someone’s abandoned T-72B?
4) Two more BMPs.
If you like what you see and you have desire and opportunity to help us you may do it via different ways👇With your help we managed to cover so much our needs (everything was show here)🔥
Our PP: [email protected]
Lyman:
Dramatic frontal strike on a Russian BMP with a Stugna-P ATGM system of the Ukraine Defence Forces in Lyman direction. 93rd Brigade. pic.twitter.com/9YJfDPQaS5
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 3, 2024
Robotyne:
Robotyne, Ukraine Defence Forces destroy Russian BMP-4 and Gvozdika SPG using an FPV drone leading to catastrophic explosions. pic.twitter.com/0daWjUysIF
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 3, 2024
Unfortunately Russia has the population to waste while Ukraine does not.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 03 March 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/JA3Q89aXTg#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/JkIbp9Nc5H
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 3, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Робоче🐾 #дснс #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Working 🐾 #дснс#песпатрон
Open thread!
Freemark
Thanks Adam for your second important and high quality post tonight!
Adam L Silverman
@Freemark: You’re welcome.
Yutsano
It’s so “fun” to watch Patron at work. And by “fun” I mean hoping nothing bad happens to him and his sapper crew.
Alison Rose
Thank you as always, Adam.
NobodySpecial
At his point, I just assume the FTFNYT is just a fascist propaganda rag and they will print anything to damage UKR/USA relations and report any actionable intelligence to their masters.
West of the Rockies
Looking at dead Ukrainian children makes me think of the 983 dead Russian soldiers a day. Well, that’s 983 men who won’t be producing more Russians. Works for me.
Gin & Tonic
My dream is to sit Pastor Mike Johnson down like Alex in A Clockwork Orange and show him the photos of dead babies in Odesa.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
AlaskaReader
@Gin & Tonic: Would that I could I think I’d banish him to an area just outside the frontlines around Adviivka, …leave him on his own with a rifle and a handful of empty clips.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Gin & Tonic: Glad to help, if you need a hand.
Timill
@AlaskaReader: Tie him to a steak and invite the wolves for dinner…
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
I’ve had similar thoughts about that one.
For those unfamiliar with it,
A Clockwork Orange (1971) (youtube, scene were Alex is educated)
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
Manyakitty
@AlaskaReader: much better choice.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
That was the thought most prominent in my mind as I read the article. However, since it is clear that the NYT team was allowed significant access by the Ukrainian government (specifically the intelligence services), I assume the Ukrainian government wanted the article published to make clear how important an ally Ukraine is against Russia, & not just since 2022. I can only assume that the Ukrainian government weighed the benefits from disclosure versus the costs, & believed that their current dire circumstances required taking more risk.
I don’t think the GOP has embraced isolationism. There is strong strand among the rank & file, as well as some of the loudmouths in the House. However, most of the GOP members of Congress, former staffers of the Trump administration, as well as think tankers, are still committed primacists (often of the most malevolently militarist kind). It is just that they are much more focused on waging a Cold War against the PRC, preparing for what they believe to be an imminent hot war w/ the PRC, as well as agitating for military action against Iran & Venezuela. They hope to peel w/ Putinist Russia from the PRC, believe the former to be ideologically simpatico & thus a natural ally in what they believed to the be more important civilizational struggle.
Now, this could all be a cynical act, hoping to leverage the specter of an alien threat (Chinese being easier to Otherize than the nominally European Russians) to advance their causes for reactionary authoritarianism domestically, & they do not actually have appetite for a hot war w/ the PRC that might bring nuclear armageddon. However, I take them at their words.
patrick II
@Gin & Tonic:
You talk as if that would make a difference.
YY_Sima Qian
Tough to read from the CNN, given the rapid motion humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.